Simchat Torah begins tonight at Sundown. The holiday celebrates the Deity giving the Torah/Law to the Israelites, which is a major portion of the conditions of the covenant between the Deity and Jews. It is usually a very raucous, celebratory, and joyous holiday including lots of singing, dancing, drinking, and eating.
💥Over 100 dead & over 900 wounded thus far in Israel today
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
💥💥💥Israeli radio stations have been turned over to open lines for desperate, shattered citizens calling in to share their phone numbers and beg, beg for help. Total system collapse.
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
In an interview on @MSNBC I said that the invasion from Gaza is Israel's 911 and that what Hamas did in the Israeli villages near the border is like the Russian massacre in Bucha. Watch it here: pic.twitter.com/7HwH7mSNHT
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 7, 2023
Here’s what we know so far. Hamas, with support/assistance from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has made a major cross border attack into southern Israel. This appears to have been a complete security and intelligence failure, as well as immediate governmental response collapse, by the Israeli government and its security services.
💥It has been eight (8) hours, more than 40 dead, at least 800 wounded, and no Israeli government representative has stood in front of cameras and spoken to the people. Its a complete collapse. https://t.co/IzVBv8gdME
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
The BBC reported in their 11:29 AM update that:
Israel Defense Forces: We are fighting in 22 locations
More from the Israel Defense Forces, who have confirmed their troops are fighting in 22 locations in a statement.“There is no community in southern Israel where we do not have forces,” it says.
Hamas has claimed they have captured senior Israeli officers and will use them to negotiate for release of Hamas prisoners in Israel. According to the BBC the IDF is denying that Hamas did not capture a major general.
There are numerous social media reports, including videos, that Hamas has captured a number of female Israeli military personnel and brought them back to Gaza. Basically there’s three videos and two pictures. None of them are being posted by any official or verifiable – and I don’t mean an $8 a month blue check for Elon verifiable account – many of them from India. It is unclear in any of them if these women are in fact in the IDF. None of them are in uniform. One is in heavily soiled grey sweat pants, another in a green 1/4 zip top and black yoga type tights. This woman may be in both a video and one of the still images as the clothing sort of matches. Another appears to be in pajamas sitting on a divan. The audio is so garbled because so many men are yelling that it is impossible to tell what the woman in the green top is screaming or in what language. If they are young Israeli women then one would expect they are either within their two year mandatory period of military service or in the reserves. However, Hamas has been known to stage these types of things.
There is also a video on social media of two men sitting in the bed of a truck with their feet on the back of a dead woman. There is blood matted in the back of her hair, her face is not visible, and she is stripped to her underwear and is wearing what appear to be black rubber or leather over the calf boots with a zipper up the side and rubber soles, not combat boots. This is being promoted as Hamas is parading the corpse of a female Israeli Soldier through the streets of Gaza. She is definitely dead.
I’m not going to post any of that stuff here.
Current Israeli civil rights lawyer and former Shin Bet (Israel’s internal security service) coordinator Gonen Ben Itzhak posted this at 4:09 AM:
💥 "My father, Brig Gen (ret) Uzi Ben Yitzchak, asked me to ask why they're not saying the truth: that 26 battalions, almost all the regular IDF, is in the territories. There is almost no army in the south. All this due to a decision of the extreme right-wing government." https://t.co/e6np4bKhDg
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
Here’s Ben Itzhak’s full tweet with (machine) translation (as my Hebrew is very, very rusty!):
אבא שלי, תא"ל עוזי בן יצחק, שהיה רמ"ט פיקוד מרכז, ביקש ממני לשאול למה לא אומרים את האמת: 26 גדודים, כמעט כל צה"ל הסדיר נמצא בשטחים. אין צבא כמעט בדרום. כל זה בהחלטת ממשלה ימנית וקיצונית.
צריך לומר את זה ברור.
צריך להעביר כוחות מהגדה לעזה ולסגור בכל מחיר את הגדר ולא לתת להם…
— Gonen Ben Itzhak גונן בן יצחק (@GONENB1) October 7, 2023
Here’s the machine translation of the Hebrew: (I’m exceedingly rusty, so this is the better option)
My father, Brigadier General Uzi Ben Yitzchak, who was the commander of the Central Command, asked me to ask why they don’t tell the truth: 26 battalions, almost all of the regular IDF is in the territories. There is almost no army in the south. All this by a decision of an extreme right-wing government.
It should be said clearly.
Forces should be transferred from the West Bank to Gaza and close the fence at all costs and not let them return to Gaza
From what I can tell from reading and parsing various social media posts, someone pulled IDF personnel to secure and guard a religious site in Nablus, which is in the West Bank, and other sites in the West Bank so that they might be accessed as part of Simchat Torah festivities.
צה"ל היקצה הלילה שלושה גדודי חי"ר כדי לאבטח כניסת מתפללים לשכם למקום המכונה בטעות 'קבר יוסף'.
תרגום:
צה"ל סיכן הלילה את הילדים שלכם כדי לאבטח את הפרובוקטורים.
אין הבדל בין פרובוקטור בשכם לבין פרובוקטור בככר דיזינגוף בכוונה. יש הבדל אחד:
בככר דיזינגוף הם בטוחים בלי לסכן חיילים
— Eyal Ofer אייל עופר (@Eyalo365) October 5, 2023
Machine translation:
The IDF assigned three infantry battalions tonight to secure the entry of worshipers to Nablus to a place mistakenly known as ‘Joseph’s Tomb’.
translating:
The IDF endangered your children tonight to secure the provocateurs.
There is no difference between a provocateur in Nablus and a provocateur in Dizengoff Square on purpose. There is one difference:
In Dizengoff Square they are safe without endangering soldiers
Here’s some additional reporting on this:
Clashes bw IDF and local Palestinians continued today as funeral held for Palestinian killed.
Question needs to be asked, again: why do the IDF/Border Police keep allowing settler mobs to simply march into the center of a Palestinian village and do whatever they want, again?
— Neri Zilber (@NeriZilber) October 6, 2023
And these are the types of folks, though not the same group or location as this was in Jerusalem not the West Bank, that the IDF and border police have been pulled out of position to safeguard:
We decry the recent incident in Jerusalem’s Old City in which a group of Jews who were observing Sukkot spat at Christian pilgrims and sites. Had the roles been reversed, we would have no trouble describing their behavior as antisemitic. We commend Israeli law enforcement for…
— Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism (@StateSEAS) October 6, 2023
We decry the recent incident in Jerusalem’s Old City in which a group of Jews who were observing Sukkot spat at Christian pilgrims and sites. Had the roles been reversed, we would have no trouble describing their behavior as antisemitic. We commend Israeli law enforcement for their swift action in identifying and apprehending the culprits.
At 5:35 AM Yoav Zitun YNet’s military correspondent posted this:
הנתון של מד"א, 22 נרצחים ישראלים מהבוקר, חלקי ביותר כי לפחות ב-4 ישובים בנגב המערבי חמאס עדיין שולט ומימדי הטבח שביצע בהם יתבררו בהמשך.
בינתיים מהדקות האחרונות עוד חדירה המונית לישראל מבית להייה לשער הנגב: pic.twitter.com/widTNcwRiX— יואב זיתון (@yoavzitun) October 7, 2023
Machine translation that provides the context for the video:
The MDA figure, 22 Israelis murdered since this morning, is extremely partial because in at least 4 settlements in the Western Negev Hamas is still in control and the dimensions of the massacre it carried out in them will become clear later.
Meanwhile, from the last few minutes another mass infiltration into Israel from Beit Lahiya to the Negev gate:
The situation is serious enough that the former PM volunteered for active duty this AM:
שאלוהים ישמור אותך אמן!❤️🇮🇱@naftalibennett https://t.co/UpQokLwBQV
— בר זוהר (בז) Bar Zohar (@bar_zohar2025) October 7, 2023
Machine translation of the quoted tweet:
How serious is the situation? The former prime minister is standing next to me right now and has enlisted to help
Quoting tweet:
May God protect you Amen! ❤️🇮🇱
גם האלוף יאיר גולן לובש מדים ויוצא להלחם!
גיבורי ישראל האמיתיים בניגוד לשקרן הפתולוגי החולני והפלילי מחריב ישראל. https://t.co/TUUYuUqPmB
— בר זוהר (בז) Bar Zohar (@bar_zohar2025) October 7, 2023
Major Yair Golan also wears a uniform and goes out to fight! The real heroes of Israel as opposed to the pathological pathological and criminal liar who destroys Israel.
Haaretz correspondent Bar Peleg, fresh off an amazing report on how Canada is treating Eritrean refugees previously living in Israel, is in Sderot in southern Israel:
נכנסתי לשדרות. מילים לא יצליחו להסביר את מה שאני רואה פה ואת רוב התמונות אני מעדיף לחסוך. גופות, מכוניות מחוררות, מחסניות של קלאצ׳ על הרצפה ותרמילים רבים. כוח צבאי נכנס עכשיו לתוך העיר, גם כוחות הצלה. השכנים משוועים לעזרה
— Bar Peleg (@bar_peleg) October 7, 2023
I entered the boulevard. Words will not be able to explain what I see here and I prefer to save most of the pictures. Dead bodies, punctured cars, clutch cartridges on the floor and many backpacks. A military force is now entering the city, also rescue forces. The neighbors are desperate for help
עשר שעות בדיוק לתחילת הלחימה וחילופי אש כבדים עדיין נמשכים בשדרות באזור תחנת המשטרה. עכשיו עוד כח צבאי נכנס לאזור. בסמוך רכב המחבלים עם מקלע כבד שעדיין לא נפרק pic.twitter.com/EbMj38B0mm
— Bar Peleg (@bar_peleg) October 7, 2023
Exactly ten hours before the start of the fighting and heavy exchanges of fire are still going on in Sderot in the area of the police station. Now another military force is entering the area. Nearby is the terrorist vehicle with a heavy machine gun that has not yet been unloaded
מכוניות נטושות, אחרות מפויחות, הדי פיצוצים וריח של אבק שריפה. כאוס בכבישי הדרום pic.twitter.com/S0MLsOZ983
— Bar Peleg (@bar_peleg) October 7, 2023
Abandoned cars, others sooty, the sounds of explosions and the smell of gunpowder. Chaos on the roads of the south
הכלב הזה הסתובב פה אבוד בכביש והתיישב באחת המכוניות. pic.twitter.com/AfUcsbUK9S
— Bar Peleg (@bar_peleg) October 7, 2023
This dog wandered here lost on the road and sat in one of the cars.
Civilians apparently span elderly citizens in wheelchairs and toddlers
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
I think this thread sums up how the major security and intelligence failure occurred:
המלחמה שנפתחה הבוקר זה לא מקרי. הכישלון המדהד של הממשלה הזאת והאפיסות המוחלטת של מרכיביה זה לא רק עניין פנימי. אמרנו את זה והתרענו אלף פעם: אויבינו רואים מי הממשלה פה והם מבינים שיש להם הזדמנות נדירה.
כל הלוינים והרוטמנים והביבים והבן גבירים והדיסטלים שעבדו על פירוק החברה
— Chaim Levinson (@chaimlevinson) October 7, 2023
ולא רק שהממשלה הזאת כושלת בכל תחום, נעדרת כל מדיניות חשיבה וחזון, הם גם עסוקים בלהדליק.
עשרות פעמים התריעו שהחימום הזול של בן גביר על האסירים יש לו משמעות והפרובקציות בהר הבית יש להם משמעות והלשרוף את חווארה יעלה בדם. והנה, זה עלה. ביבי כך את האפסים שלך ותלך
— Chaim Levinson (@chaimlevinson) October 7, 2023
Machine translation of all three tweets:
The war that started this morning is no accident. The resounding failure of this government and the complete incompetence of its members is not only an internal matter. We have said it and warned it a thousand times: our enemies see who the government is here and they realize that they have a rare opportunity. All the Levins and Rotmans and Bibs and Ben Gevirs and Distals who worked on the dissolution of the company succeeded.
Everyone saw that there is no state here and no police here, there is no social cohesion and the government has no legitimacy to do anything. Everyone sees that the government’s reaction capacity is nothing and nothing, that it is made up of idiots and brainless people.
Beyond the obvious intelligence failure, the failure is strategic from above. The policies of Netanyahu and Gallant have failed.
And not only does this government fail in every area, it lacks any policy of thinking and vision, they are also busy lighting the fire. Dozens of times they warned that Ben Gvir’s cheap warming of the prisoners has a meaning and the provocations on the Temple Mount have a meaning and burning Hvara will cost blood. And lo and behold, it rose. Bibi so your zeros and go
I wrote back in July, as the protests against Bibi’s extremist reactionary coalition and its attempts to subvert Israeli foundational and statutory law ramped up that if I were the Palestinians I would attack. I wrote this not because I wanted that, or what is happening now, to happen. Rather, I wrote it because from a strategic point of view Israeli has never been weaker than it has been for the past three months and a couple of weeks. Bibi only cares about remaining in power and staying out of prison. His even more extreme and reactionary coalition partners only care about using the power of the state to forcibly establish their conception of Judaism as a religion in an illiberal managed democracy/Jewish theocracy. All of this was not only predictable, it was, in fact predicted.
💥From July: "Military Intelligence Warns Netanyahu: Our Enemies Identify Historic Points of Weakness." pic.twitter.com/9ucMa4Iqn5
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
Everyone, however, will pretend it was a complete surprise!
Why it matters: This is the biggest and most serious invasion against Israel since the 1973 war and it caught the country and its civilian and military leadership by complete surprise https://t.co/Uc7qzgThGC
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 7, 2023
Unpredictable remarks from Gen. (Res.) Amos Gilad. [for decades senior security official]: "The sources of this catastrophe lie in the regime change".
*דברים חסרי תקדים של אלוף במיל' עמוס גלעד: מקור הכשל הוא ההפיכה המשטרית* pic.twitter.com/gmB46iYtGr
— Daniel Seidemann (@DanielSeidemann) October 7, 2023
If you’re wondering if this will actually bring Bibi’s downfall, the answer is no, no it will not!
BREAKING: Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid says he told Netanyahu he is ready to form an emergency unity government that will run the war
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 7, 2023
💥The Israeli army warned Netanyahu for months that his push for government overhaul put Israel at great risk of a multi-front attack. He dismissed their warnings by accusing the military of "joining the left-wing protesters" against him. His ministers said army could go to hell. https://t.co/zxJmti4j6G
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
I have a line chart I put together for a keynote I gave in 2004 on comparative violent extremism. One axis was Bibi in political/electoral trouble and Hamas strikes. The other was time. As in from 1994 to 2004. Care to guess how the data points lined up? The sad reality is that Bibi and Hamas need each other. Neither can exist without each other, just as neither can exist if there’s an Israeli Palestinian peace agreement. Bibi will exploit today’s attack to protect himself and remain in power. And he’ll be enabled in that by those who oppose him because their interests are the good of their state and society, not their own bank accounts, remaining in power indefinitely, and staying out of prison.
Here’s the thread she’s quoting:
2. Peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians have long been dead in the water, any glimmer of reigniting the idea of a two-state solution will now be extinguished. Some have argued Israel played up existential threat of Hamas. From now on Israel will cite 7 October.
— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) October 7, 2023
4. Israeli army told me “every option is on the table” including the long term re deployment of Israeli forces inside Gaza. “They will pay a huge price”. Except massive bombing of Gaza, a possible ground incursion once the south is under control.
— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) October 7, 2023
💥💥💥With missiles raining down on Israel, more than 100 dead and over 1000 wounded, Opposition Leader Lapid offers Netanyahu a lifeline: An emergency unity government: "I propose removing the unprofessional elements from the cabinet. I have no doubt that Gantz will also join." https://t.co/LhuLxK0n9X
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
The following four tweets – two tweets and two quoted tweets – are all part of the same thread:
💥The question 'how does Netanyahu survive this disaster?' may just have been answered by Lapid. https://t.co/bOSliJHqvw
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
Is this the first time since 1948 that Israel loses control of its towns and villages? In 1973, the surprise Egyptian and Syrian breakthroughs were in occupied Sinai and Golan, not in sovereign Israel proper. https://t.co/1TW1rfzCVQ
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) October 7, 2023
If any one is curious, here are the Russian and Ukrainian responses:
שימו לב להבדלים בתגובות של רוסיה ואוקראינה למתקפת הטרור הרצחנית של החמאס נגד ישראל, שכללה טבח המוני אזרחים. הודעת משרד החוץ הרוסי במלואה:
״מוסקבה מביעה דאגה חמורה ביותר מההדרדרות החדה של המצב באזור הסכסוך הפלסטיני-ישראלי. בהקשר זה אנו מאשרים את עמדתנו העקרונית והעקבית לפיה…
— 🎗Yair Navot – יאיר נבות 🎗 (@Navot_Yair) October 7, 2023
Machine translation:
Note the differences in Russia’s and Ukraine’s responses to the murderous terrorist attack by Hamas against Israel, which included mass slaughter of civilians. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement in full:
“Moscow is extremely concerned about the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone. In this context, we confirm our principled and consistent position that this conflict, which has been going on for 75 years, has no solution by force and can only be resolved through political and diplomatic means, through a full negotiation process on a well-known international legal basis, which allows for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with its capital in East Jerusalem, which lives in peace and security with Israel. We see the current escalation as another extremely dangerous manifestation of a vicious cycle of violence, which is a direct result of chronic disobedience to the relevant resolutions of the United Nations and its Security Council and the de facto blocking by the West of the work of the Middle East “Quartet” of international mediators consisting of Russia, the U.S. “B, the European Union and the United Nations. We call on the Palestinian and Israeli sides for an immediate ceasefire, a renunciation of violence, the exercise of necessary restraint and the establishment, with the assistance of the international community, of a negotiation process aimed at establishing a comprehensive, sustainable and long-awaited peace in the Middle East.”
Put aside the irony and cynicism of the Russians, who dare to talk about respecting international law, while massacring the citizens of Ukraine. Note that Moscow refuses to clearly and unequivocally condemn the Hamas organization for its massacres during the day against Israeli civilians, including women and children in their homes. Russia does not recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization, and even occasionally hosts the heads of the organization in Moscow, including Salah al-Aruri, one of the architects of today’s attack.
And now pay attention to the announcement of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry:
“Ukraine strongly condemns the ongoing terrorist attacks against Israel, including missile attacks against the civilian population in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. We express our support for Israel and its right to defend itself and its people.’ In addition, President Zelensky published a message on his Telegram channel that read, among other things: “Terrible news from Israel. My condolences to all those whose family and friends lost their lives in the attack. We believe that order will be restored and the terrorists will be destroyed. Nowhere in the world can terrorism be given another chance, because terrorism is always a crime not only against one country or its specific victims, but against humanity as such and our entire world. Whoever uses terrorism is a criminal against the world. Whoever finances terrorism is a criminal against the world. The world must be united and in solidarity so that terrorism will never try to conquer or eliminate life. Israel’s right to defense cannot be doubted.’
Despite Israel having spent almost two years equivocating in regard to aiding Ukraine so as not to upset Putin, Ukraine makes a clear, unequivocal statement while Russia both sides things.
US responses:
Today, I spoke with @IsraeliPM about the appalling Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel. I offered our support and reiterated my unwavering commitment to Israel’s security. @FLOTUS and I express our heartfelt condolences to the families who have lost loved ones.
— President Biden Archived (@POTUS46Archive) October 7, 2023
BREAKING: Biden after his call with Netanyahu: The United States warns against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation. My Administration’s support for Israel’s security is rock solid and unwavering
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 7, 2023
We unequivocally condemn the appalling attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israel. We stand in solidarity with the government and people of Israel and extend our condolences for the Israeli lives lost in these attacks.
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) October 7, 2023
My statement on the violent, unprovoked and despicable terrorist attack by Hamas against the State of Israel. pic.twitter.com/vpj3X8EE2y
— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) October 7, 2023
CHM @RepMcCaul "I strongly condemn Iran-backed Hamas terrorists’ unprecedented assault on Israel. I am shocked by the barbaric images we are seeing of Hamas’ violence and by reports Hamas is taking innocent Israeli citizens hostage.
— House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority (@HouseForeignGOP) October 7, 2023
"Israel has a right to defend itself and the United States stands with our friend and ally."
— House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority (@HouseForeignGOP) October 7, 2023
I’m going to be very clear here, I fully expect that the US Congress, especially the GOP controlled House, is going to set a political speed record in writing and then passing a supplemental military aid package for Israel. At the same time there will be no supplemental aid package for Ukraine. I also expect that this glaring discrepancy will get little coverage from the major print, broadcast, and cable TV news outlets, though their will be a lot of grandstanding on just how good an ally the US is when its friends and partners are in need. The Ukrainians will, of course, take note of this. As will the Russians, especially Putin. The lesson that Putin will take is that not only can the US be easily distracted, which he already knows, but that Ukraine is ultimately on its own and his strategy to create time is and will continue to work.
Bibi will, of course, survive this and emerge more secure than ever. As will the even more extremist and reactionary coalition partners he has enabled.
Hamas, especially its leadership, will be attrited.
The real victims will be the Israelis killed by Hamas and the Gazans killed by the Israeli response.
Open thread!
