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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

I don’t recall signing up for living in a dystopian sci-fi novel.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Petty moves from a petty man.

Welcome to day five of every-bit-as-bad-as-you-thought-it-would-be.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Find someone who loves you the way trump and maga love traitors.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Please proceed, Governor

by Betty Cracker|  September 19, 202310:10 am| 210 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, The War On Women, Women's Rights Are Human Rights

Remember yesterday when we speculated that a contested primary could be useful in exposing GOP radicalism on abortion? From RadioIowa:

Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis says Donald Trump’s recent statements on the abortion issue show the former president’s “values” are out of step with Iowa GOP voters. Trump said during an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the six week abortion ban DeSantis signed into law this spring was a terrible mistake.

“Donald Trump may think it’s terrible. I think protecting babies with heartbeats is noble and just and I’m proud to have signed the heartbeat bill in Florida and I know Iowa has similar legislation,” DeSantis says. “I don’t know how you can even make the claim that you’re somehow prolife if you’re criticizing states for enacting protections for babies that have heartbeats.”

Like everyone in the pro-lie movement, DeSantis is a fucking liar. A fetus at six weeks looks kind of like a tadpole and nothing like the Gerber baby, and it doesn’t have a “heart” in any meaningful sense of the word. Here’s how a qualified medical expert (i.e., NOT Ron DeSantis) describes it:

“While the heart does begin to develop at around six weeks, at this point the heart as we know it does not yet exist,” said Dr. Ian Fraser Golding, a pediatric and fetal cardiologist at Rady Children’s Hospital San Diego.

So yes, Repubs are liars, and the reproductive freedom issue isn’t going away. I’m NOT saying the Dobbs decision will carry Democrats to victory in the fall. I am saying the Dobbs decision is deeply unpopular and a millstone around Republicans’ necks because they own it 100%.

That’s why they generally avoid talking about it, but the infighting is bringing the issue to the fore. Good.

Open thread.

Please proceed, GovernorPost + Comments (210)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: If I Can’t Dance…

by Anne Laurie|  September 19, 20236:51 am| 161 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Our Failed Media Experiment

How I'm showing up to the polls in 2024 to vote for @POTUS & @KamalaHarris pic.twitter.com/JZl0UnnvAG

— Tai Babilonia ?? (@taiskates) September 18, 2023

There was a thread interwoven across the twitter accounts I read, using gifs to convey the users’ 2024 intentions. Tai Babilonia‘s tweet best conveyed my own feelings!

President Biden addressed questions about his age at a fundraiser on Broadway: “A lot of people seem focused on my age. I get it. Believe me, I know it more than anyone.” But said democracy is at stake and “I will not walk away now.”

— Steve Holland (@steveholland1) September 19, 2023

“Because in 2024 democracy’s on the ballot once again, & let there be no question: Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy. And I will always defend, protect and fight for our democracy. That’s why I’m running,” Biden said at fundraiser.

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) September 19, 2023

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“I’m running because — hear this — I want the entire nation to join me in sending the strongest, clearest, most powerful message possible that political violence in America is never, never, never acceptable,” Biden said at Broadway fundraiser in NYC. pic.twitter.com/zpji7lubqW

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) September 19, 2023

Elsewhere, Our Failed Major Media:

"Bring the boys home……but not like that" https://t.co/26tqDqRZCe

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) September 19, 2023

OP-VIDEO: Is the deal to free American hostages Biden's 9/11, or Biden's 9/11? We have a bipartisan roundtable discussion with Bret Stephens, Henry Olsen, and Ross Douthat, moderated by Maureen Dowd

cc:@DougJBalloon

— The okayest poster there is (@ok_post_guy) September 19, 2023


 
Repubs in disarray!

1st DEM ad for 2024 Congress https://t.co/XEhsOjjkpL

— Jennifer Now at Threads Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) September 18, 2023

this is, for the record, exactly what Pelosi and Biden mean when they say there needs to be a strong Republican Party https://t.co/Su5Btm0nO9

— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) (@merovingians) September 15, 2023

Then it wouldn’t be the Republican party. “We need respectable and calm fascists in control to rein in the brazen psychos” is not a winning idea

— Christian (@getheode) September 15, 2023

the collapse of the New Deal Coalition didn't lead to a different Democratic Party, it led to a different Republican Party

— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) (@merovingians) September 15, 2023

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: 1

(Mike Luckovich via GoComics.com)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: <em>If I Can’t Dance… </em>Post + Comments (161)

Late Night Open Thread: Sen. Fetterman Stands Out

by Anne Laurie|  September 19, 20232:46 am| 47 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

John Fetterman says he'll 'never understand' progressives who refuse to support Joe Biden

"Get behind Joe Biden's policies, or you're gonna get behind Trump's policies," said the Pennsylvania Democrat.https://t.co/Otq28dHHrT

— HawaiiDelilah™ ?? #MauiStrong (@HawaiiDelilah) September 13, 2023

It’s not as though the man has much choice in the matter; he’s been bigger than most for long enough to have grown comfortable in his fashion choices…

I need John Fetterman to run for President in 2028 or something. Not because of any partisan or ideological reasons — I just want to see the reaction of very angry 45-year-olds who have to wear a suit out of habit while the President wears shorts and a hoodie.

— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) September 17, 2023

You can debate his background all you want. But big, bald goateed fellows who ignore their health for work and only wear suits at weddings and funerals is a fertile audience. You could do a lot worse. https://t.co/IFtEJg0ljQ

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) September 15, 2023

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Everybody’s got an opinion…

I dress like you predict https://t.co/TDScsGCi2k

— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) September 18, 2023

https://t.co/FTA3NcaJOu pic.twitter.com/DgwmjyzgLF

— Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) September 18, 2023

This man calls himself a libertarian https://t.co/GXdWsKWWYi

— chekovian jubilee (@CollieYimby) September 17, 2023

Awful. The Senate chamber isn’t your home, a gym, or an outdoor park. If you can’t dress professionally for work on the floor of the Senate of the United States, then do us all a favor and get a different job. https://t.co/Yc90RrMbxm

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) September 17, 2023

… The intrigue: It’s unclear whether the Senate dress code is actually an official, written policy. It appears to be more of an informal custom, enforced by the Sergeant at Arms.

– No senior staff contacted by Axios on Friday could find a written record of the rules — an omission that also has puzzled some on social media.

Between the lines: Five years ago, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) petitioned her colleagues to make some changes in the dress code, according to New York Times reporter Jennifer Steinhauer’s book “The Firsts: the Inside Story of the Women Reshaping Congress.”

– After some grumbling by males, the standards for women’s attire were relaxed. Afterward, women on the Senate floor were allowed to show their arms. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), a triathlete, often goes sleeveless…

ron has a natural Gollum quality about him that I feel has been underexplored.

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) September 18, 2023

Oh no. How will the guy who marketed himself as a blue collar Pennsylvania populist survive scandalizing politicians in DC by dressing like an everyman?

These guys are so used to being the ones playing the “you could have a beer with him” card they forgot how to counter it.

— Starfish Unexpectedly Cancelled For Hating Hitler (@IRHotTakes) September 18, 2023

Fetterman’s superpower is that Man Big lights up the vestigial caveman part of your brain. If you put DeSantis in the same room as Fetterman and DeSantis pointed this out, you still wouldn’t believe it.

“WHAT YOU MEAN FETTER-MAN NOT FROM STRONG MAN TRIBE? MAN BIG.” https://t.co/NR50spZBmf

— Starfish Unexpectedly Cancelled For Hating Hitler (@IRHotTakes) September 18, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: Sen. Fetterman Stands OutPost + Comments (47)

Monday Night Open Thread: Failed Theater Kids

by Anne Laurie|  September 18, 202310:59 pm| 93 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Popular Culture, Republican Politics, Republican Stupidity

incredible to me that a large number of Republican politicians genuinely do not understand that "we're shutting down the government because the military has gone woke" makes you sound insane

— knife-wielding hemophiliac (@NickTagliaferro) September 18, 2023

Something light, because winding down sounds good: Jeet Heer, at the Nation — “Lauren Boebert Is Not the Only Republican Ruining Musicals”:

… Boebert’s performance was noteworthy not just for her personal boorishness but also as part of a larger pattern of right-wingers vandalizing musicals. Strange as it may sound, one of the cultural symptoms of the Trump era is the hard right’s affinity for musicals—an art form they also repeatedly desecrate.

Donald Trump himself is a prime example. No president has had such an intense love for musicals. In the White House, music was key to calming down Trump during his frequent outburst of anger. As The New York Times reported in 2021, White House official Max Miller—nicknamed the “Music Man”—was tasked with playing show tunes like “Memory” from Cats to “pull [Trump] from the brink of rage.” This is truly a case of music having charms to sooth the savage breast…

The extreme right is rich in figures who can be described as failed theater kids. These are people whose sensibilities are clearly shaped by a love for the expressive power and excess emotions of musical theater. But they haven’t been able to make a name for themselves in the area of their true passion, so instead they bring their thwarted theater-kid energy to partisan agitation.

Trump’s on-again-off-again crony Steve Bannon is a quintessential failed theater kid, writing a long string of movie scripts that went nowhere. In the 1990s, with cowriter Julia Jones, he worked on a hip-hop musical titled The Thing I Am. A bizarre hybrid, this musical tried to mash together the plot of Shakespeare’s Coriolanus with the story of the 1992 Rodney King riots in Los Angeles…

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James O’Keefe, founder and deposed head of Project Veritas, is yet another failed theater kid. Founded in 2010, Project Veritas specializes in creating deceptively edited entrapment videos that showed progressives allegedly saying or doing compromising things… Of course, Project Veritas itself can be seen as a form of theater—albeit ineptly produced theater with crude and melodramatic plots…

One could extend almost indefinitely the list of right-wing provocateurs who had theater-kid backgrounds to include figures like Steven Crowder and Mark Steyn (who recorded a truly dreadful album titled Feline Groovy where he croons, in a faux-Sinatra fashion, cat-themed songs against a background of pastiche soft jazz). Even Gore Vidal or Mary McCarthy would struggle to find the vocabulary to describe how terrible the results are…

Ironically, politics and theater are merging at the exact same time that actual theater—whether musical or not—is in financial crisis thanks to the lingering impact of Covid. The critic Isaac Butler warns, “The American theater is on the verge of collapse.” Butler’s solution is a massive bailout of theater along the lines of the Federal Theater Project of the New Deal era. The migration of failed theater kids into right-wing politics suggests an added side benefit to this proposal. Surely we want future Steve Bannons and James O’Keefes to be working on productions of West Side Story in Peoria rather than shaping national politics.

Since politics has fused with entertainment, we shouldn’t be surprised when would-be or failed entertainers thrive as political leaders and pundits. Frank Sinatra once sang of New York, “If I can make it there / I‘ll make it anywhere.” A modern update might be: If you can’t make it on Broadway, there’s always Washington.

I like the idea of a modern WPA, but I doubt the federal government will ever be able to offer the free hand and lavish funding right-wing theater wannabes already collect from people like Peter Thiel and Harlan Crow…

Monday Night Open Thread: Failed Theater KidsPost + Comments (93)

Will This Have Any Impact? (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  September 18, 20238:24 pm| 123 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Looks like we could use an Open Thread to be paired with the Ukraine thread.

I starred writing this on Sept 7, so maybe not as timely as it was then.  But it will work for an open thread!

THIS THEAD IS WIDE OPEN

🌟

Like the warning that came out before the election in 2020, where it seemed that Dick Cheney had organized a bunch of people to issue the warning, I find myself wondering who helped get this going?  Anyone know?  Obama Foundation, since they are listed first?  I wonder if the presidential centers are listen in order of joining in the statement?

On the face of it, this seems to be a good thing, but I find myself wondering…

  • Who is the audience for this message?
  • What do they hope to accomplish?
  • Will it have any effect?
  • Will it have the desired effect?

A statement from 13 presidential centers

The unalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, as stated in the Declaration of Independence, are principles that bind us together as Americans. They have enabled the United States to strive toward a more perfect union, even when we have not always lived up to those ideals.

As a diverse nation of people with different backgrounds and beliefs, democracy holds us together. We are a country rooted in the rule of law, where the protection of the rights of all people is paramount. At the same time, we live among our fellow citizens, underscoring the importance of compassion, tolerance, pluralism, and respect for others.

We, the undersigned, represent a wide range of views across a breadth of issues. We recognize that these views can exist peaceably side by side when rooted in the principles of democracy. Debate and disagreement are central features in a healthy democracy. Civility and respect in political discourse, whether in an election year or otherwise, are essential.

Americans have a strong interest in supporting democratic movements and respect for human rights around the world because free societies elsewhere contribute to our own security and prosperity here at home. But that interest is undermined when others see our own house in disarray. The world will not wait for us to address our problems, so we must both continue to strive toward a more perfect union and help those abroad looking for U.S. leadership.

Each of us has a role to play and responsibilities to uphold. Our elected officials must lead by example and govern effectively in ways that deliver for the American people. This, in turn, will help to restore trust in public service. The rest of us must engage in civil dialogue; respect democratic institutions and rights; uphold safe, secure, and accessible elections; and contribute to local, state, or national improvement.

By signing this statement, we reaffirm our commitment to the principles of democracy undergirding this great nation, protecting our freedom, and respecting our fellow citizens. When united by these convictions, America is stronger as a country and an inspiration for others.

Obama Foundation

George W. Bush Presidential Center

Clinton Foundation

George & Barbara Bush Foundation

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute

The Carter Center

Gerald R. Ford Presidential Foundation

Richard Nixon Foundation

LBJ Foundation

John F. Kennedy Library Foundation

Truman Library Institute

Roosevelt Institute

Hoover Presidential Foundation

🌟

Totally open thread!

Will This Have Any Impact? (Open Thread)Post + Comments (123)

War for Ukraine Day 572: Russia Opens Up on Ukraine Again Tonight

by Adam L Silverman|  September 18, 20238:21 pm| 79 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Russia opened up on Ukraine again overnight. Ukrainian air defense was on the game.

17 out of 17 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 missiles and 18 out of 24 Shaheds launched by russian terrorists were shot down by Ukrainian air defense last night. pic.twitter.com/SLugkhIuJA

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2023

Kharikiv is right now under the gun, or missile, so to speak:

This is what the night sounds like in Kharkiv. Three loud explosions heard in the city following reports of S-300 launches from Belgorod. Third attack in three days. pic.twitter.com/aWSXim7eop

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 18, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We we must reach a point when all children in our country have their own family, their own home – address by the President of Ukraine

17 September 2023 – 20:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I would like to express gratitude today.

To everyone who defends the sky of our country. Our pilots and engineers of the Air Force, warriors of mobile fire groups, all our anti-aircraft gunners. Thank you for constantly increasing the number of downed Russian missiles and drones, and thus the number of our people and infrastructure saved. Thank you, warriors!

And to everyone who is now on the front line. To every brigade. From Kupyansk to the left bank of Kherson region, from the Bakhmut sector to every Ukrainian position on the front line in the south of our country. I thank you guys for your might!

And today I would like to especially recognize the warriors who are gradually regaining Ukraine’s territory in the area of Bakhmut. The 80th air assault brigade, the 5th separate assault brigade, the glorious 95th and “Fury” Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police. Klishchiivka! Well done!

Today Ukraine marks Rescuer’s Day. And on Friday, I had the honor to personally thank the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all those whose hearts simply feel that it is impossible otherwise, that we must take care of others, that we must help others when lives depend on it. Today, I want to thank not only all our rescuers, but also all the relatives – mothers and fathers of boys and girls, men and women working in the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. I thank you for raising your children this way: to save others, to make our entire society stronger and more humane. Thank you!

Today – and this is a very symbolic coincidence – our country also marks Adoption Day. This is probably one of the most honorable missions in life – to help a child avoid an orphan’s fate. I thank everyone who helps children in this way, everyone who spreads the warmth of their families so that there are fewer lonely destinies in this world!

As a state, we must reach a point when all children in our country, all those who have been left without parental care, have their own family – their own home, their own family.

Ukraine certainly must not be associated with orphanages. I thank everyone who works for this!

Glory to everyone who helps our people and the entire country become stronger!

And we are preparing new defense decisions for Ukraine. Air defense and artillery are a priority.

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska are starting their US visit. UN followed by DC. Zelensky provides some planning details below. https://t.co/WHS6wVyQrI

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 18, 2023

Full text of Zelenskyy’s tweet:

Olena @ZelenskaUA and I arrived in the United States for the high-level week of the UN General Assembly and a visit to Washington, D.C.

I will attend the General Assembly, SDG Summit, and Security Council meetings at the UN, as well as a number of important bilateral talks.

Ukraine will put out a concrete proposal to UN member states on how to fortify the principle of territorial integrity and improve the UN’s capacity to thwart and halt aggression.

In Washington, D.C., I am going to meet with @POTUS Joe Biden, leaders of the U.S. Congress’ chambers and parties, military leadership, American businesses, journalists, and members of the Ukrainian community.

I will thank the United States on behalf of Ukraine for its assistance in our struggle for independence and freedom.

🇺🇦🇺🇸

 

President Zelesnkyy sat for an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes:

“No,” Zelensky says. But worth listening to what he says afterward to understand why. https://t.co/4QJTeRWNSs

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 18, 2023

Here’s the full interview:

⚡️ The Cabinet dismissed all deputy ministers of defense, including Hanna Malyar. This is the standard procedure when the new minister is appointed. Some of them may later return to their positions.

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 18, 2023

The documentary film 20 Days in Mariupol will represent Ukraine at the 2024 Oscars.
Mstyslav Chernov's work will compete in the Best International Feature Film category.

📹 @frontlinepbs pic.twitter.com/qEbqdCRtkE

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2023

Klischiivka:

The destroyed village of Klischiivka in the Donetsk region.

🎥 5th Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/5nVsDrkARw

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2023

Andriivka:

Andriivka, a village in the Donetsk region, bore the brunt of hostilities for over a year. russian forces left behind a trail of destruction, with not a single intact building on which the Ukrainian flag could be raised.
But thanks to the remarkable courage and skill of Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/Pb04KsClq0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2023

Novoprokopivka-Robotyne-Verbove:

A brief 🧵thread on the Novoprokopivka-Robotyne-Verbove area updates: Through a comparative analysis of images captured on September 18th and those taken nearly two weeks ago, the landscape changes confirm the combat area and direction of current advances by the Ukrainian army pic.twitter.com/eGkG9TLhjR

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2023

3/ This is a reference map that can be used independently to verify the data. Not all changes are marked, especially those discussed in the previous thread about Novoprokopivka. Today's map primarily focuses on the eastern and northeastern parts of Novoprokopivka pic.twitter.com/4LAzoeUC5t

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2023

5/ If you found this thread valuable, please support it by liking and retweeting the first message of the thread. Your engagement enables me to provide better materials.

This imagery and analysis are made possible thanks to my supporters and Buy Me A Coffee donations

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2023

Russian occupied Sevastopol:

Here is a proper battle damage assessment of Ukraine’s attack on the Russian naval facilities in Sevastopol from H.I. Sutton, who is a naval analyst. First tweet from his thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

***UPDATE***
Thread 1/n

Refined likely damage assessment: this is an ex-submarine

New photos of #Russian navy submarine hit by #Ukrainian cruise missiles in Sevastopol show damage is even worse than previous noted. Photos appear credible. Pressure hull has massive breaches pic.twitter.com/a9doVcmHmk

— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) September 18, 2023

2.
Damage to rear section near propulsion space, as well as bow area, means basically no hull sections are likely salvageable. Implications are that internals are wrecked along most or whole length of submarineNote cutaway is port (left)Image
3.
This damage appears to be blown outward. One possible explanation *might* be a sympathetic battery explosion (?). Opinions welcome.Image
4.
Would be interesting to see reexaminations of available satellite imagery, how well does this match?However, this looks absolutely credible to me. Beware people who over-analyse with an agenda 
5.
This matches previous assessment and confirms massive damage. Combined with damage further aft, conforms in my mind that pressure hull was breached. This cannot realistically be repairedImage
6.
I am confident that any repair (which is anyway unrealistic) cannot be done in Sevastopol. Submarine would need to be patched and towed or on a barge, probably ti St. Petersburg. 

Source of images

I’m leaning away from the battery theory. Moot point. Whatever the reason, it is only of interest not consequence 
Re outward explosion, I’m leaning away from the battery theory. Moot point anyway. Whatever the reason, it is only of interest, not consequence 

Correction to title:

***Submarine Cutaway of the Day***Image

“Rostov on Gone” 

And another battle damage assessment using the same base material:

2/
If we go by this explanation, (I'm not familiar with the details on the Storm Shadow warhead) the forward half of the sub is likely even more damaged internally.https://t.co/r0JB4GWsrm

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) September 18, 2023

4/
Assessment-thread by @CovertShores https://t.co/wxb5G7Iqo3

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) September 18, 2023

Russia occupied Donetsk:

/2. Geolocation of strike on two Russian NONA self-propelled 120mm mortars. Donetsk area. https://t.co/9Tvkudn52p pic.twitter.com/bhcWWolv3M

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Cyka Blyat moment. https://t.co/SExKSgjFSY pic.twitter.com/zeTFREH9F8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

WarGonzo says the office of the so-called head of administration of the so-called DPR was hit from MLRS in Donetsk. Wonder if the attackers believed that Pushilin was there. pic.twitter.com/7RDhG0gXwe

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) September 18, 2023

It is reported that there was a direct hit on the administration of the head of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin. Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/tsbEuT7qIL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

/3. Consequences, as claimed by Russian sources, there no casualties. pic.twitter.com/RxxyyOmeOa

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Not sure where this is in Ukraine, but if you are wondering what the impact from a HIMARS strike looks like and like watching Russian military equipment go kablooey, then this video is for you!

HIMARS strike on Russian Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile system. The severity of the damage is unclear. https://t.co/GCRsrgeUc6 pic.twitter.com/Ji83FbYaFE

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

The Kinburn Peninsula:

Destroyed Russian Grad MLRS. Kinburn Peninsula, Kherson/Mykolaiv region. https://t.co/6PFL5wrhJV pic.twitter.com/W1KP8buEbg

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Here’s a blast from the past regarding how the US and our EU and NATO allies responding to Russia scarfing up Crimea back in 2014. From Christopher Miller’s new book.

From an interview with Oleksandr Turchynov, acting President of Ukraine in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea.

Remember this the next time some idiot starts trying to impress you with their knowledge of the “maidan coup.”

(From @ChristopherJM’s very good book) pic.twitter.com/tToJCWK1Gc

— Vincent Artman (@geogvma) September 17, 2023

I mean yes. We all know the “coup” narrative is a lie based on Russian propaganda and anyone repeating it should be treated with contempt.

But seriously: even on its face it’s a narrative that makes exactly zero sense.

— Vincent Artman (@geogvma) September 17, 2023

I think what Tatarigami has stated in a tweet, which is independent of what Christopher Miller has recounted and reported in his new book, provides a stark contrast to the Obama administration’s response:

The history of Ukraine and its people is not being written with ink but with the blood of patriots. Legends are born from sacrifices and a belief in independence and a better future

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2023

The Obama administration’s response was bloodless. It was cold, calculating, and I suppose realpolitik. It was also, as I’ve written about before, the textbook answer. And I know it was the textbook answer because it was the one I gave when I was the senior civilian advisor to the commanding general of US Army Europe. When we began to focus on Russia’s intentions for Ukraine in January 2014 I began preparing a strategic assessment regarding the EuroMaidan Movement/Revolution of Dignity, Ukrainian and Russian politics, society, economy, human geography, political geography, military geography*, and what Putin’s intentions were in regard to Ukraine. I began working on this for him in the middle of January 2014 specifically because the initial discussions were framed within Russia’s narrative, which we had all simply picked up from US and western news sources. Because the US and western news sources had absorbed Putin’s framing of Russian and Ukrainian relations, as well as what the EuroMaidan Movement/Revolution of Dignity was lock, stock, and barrel. Over the next two months I wrote the strategic assessment that included all of the above, as well as threat, risk, and Red Team sections for the Old Man and the senior staff covering all of those subjects. My strategic assessment was also pushed up to the commanding general of EUCOM/Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and his senior staff and was the read of the week at EUCOM. And at the end of my assessment I made the same technically correct textbook answer to my boss, which was the same preliminary assessment that I gave him three month’s prior in January of 2014 at our initial operational planning team meeting: no one in the US would risk escalating a conflict with Russia over Crimea because Russia is a nuclear weapons state. As I’ve written here before, that was the wrong answer. It was strategically and morally incorrect.

Time and experience have taught me what I could not learn in the classroom at Carlisle Barracks: that at the strategic level the textbook answer may be technically correct, but it should serve as the starting point for strategic inquiry, analysis, and assessment, not just be the default answer. We throw around idioms like states have interests, not friends. Or pull them from Thucydides; recounting to ourselves and anyone else in ear shot the bit from the Melian dialogues that the strong do what they will while the weak suffer what they must. Time and experience have taught me that my initial impression of realpolitik was the correct one. It is a trite excuse to justify either doing nothing, when action would be morally imperative even if strategically riskier than baseline or to justify doing whatever you want regardless of whether it is strategically sound or even a good idea. For a time, including in 2014 when I needed to remember it, I forgot this assessment of realpolitik. As a result, I failed to provide my boss the conceptual arguments and ammunition he needed to bring to his discussions with his boss and that his boss could then take up with the national command authority that would have provided the valid strategic justifications for us to do far more than we did. And I am well aware that neither my boss, nor his were going to set US policy and strategy for responding to Putin’s initial invasion of Ukraine. Regardless, it was my job to give them what they needed informationally and I did not do that. I failed the Old Man and in doing so, in regard to the small part I played in this in 2014, I also failed the Ukrainians.

* Human geography is people, places, things, and how they all interact in time and space. Political geography is how political structures and institutions are organized and how the people running them make decisions. Military geography is how militaries, defense, national security, and intelligence organizations are structured and how the people running them make decisions. There is often significant overlap between political and military geography.

For those of you who are curious, here is the Melian dialogue:

F-16 training update:

‼️ The language training for the Ukrainian pilots in Texas is expected to start soon, say Pentagon officials, and it is expected to last approximately five weeks, followed by specialized F-16 training.

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 18, 2023

Once they finish the five weeks in Texas, they will then be run through a specialty Defense Language Institute course to teach them how to not speak like Texans.//**

** // are sarcasm tags/indicators

Germany:

Germany is preparing a new package of military aid to Ukraine worth 400 million euros. Ammunition, vehicles, demining systems, clothing and generators. – German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius in an interview with Bild.https://t.co/yqF6SQ8vk7

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

South Korea:

South Korea will send two K600 "Rhino" minefield breaching vehicles to Ukrainehttps://t.co/IHaHmZVFdv pic.twitter.com/PH8FxJksYn

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Well that’s going to piss off Congressman Gaetz, Senator Tuberville, and their fellow travelers. They hate rhinos.

Here’s a machine translation from Bild:

PICTURE: Minister, how do we specifically help?

Boris Pistorius: „ Our help is complex. In addition to our extensive support with weapons and material, we train Ukrainian soldiers in Germany. By the end of the year there will be 10,000. In Ramstein, for example, we check whether we can support even more with the training. “

There is no new weapon package from Germany?

Pistorius: „ But. We supply additional ammunition: explosive ammunition, mortar ammunition, mine rockets. Because ammunition is what Ukraine needs most in its defense against the brutal war of aggression. We will also help with protected vehicles and demining systems. But we also have an eye on the approaching winter: we will send clothes, but also electricity and heat generators. The package will weigh a total of 400 million euros. “

Ukraine wants one thing above all: the Taurus cruise missile. Why is it not in there?

Pistorius: „ With our help for Ukraine we ask ourselves: What are our strengths? These are our modern Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks. There is ground-based air defense. Our IRIS T SLM air defense system saves lives in Ukraine every day. We are in second place worldwide in military support for Ukraine. The Ukrainians appreciate that very much, as they keep telling me in conversations. “

Spotted somewhere in Ukraine. Putin’s tombstone, drenched in… Well, see below for the inscription. 🪦

“Putin’s a d*ckhead”

“Die yesterday, bastard!
If you want to spit, spit. If you want to piss, piss here!!” pic.twitter.com/47Mh9rJktr

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 18, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

The new episode is dedicated to the very brutal finds after de-occupation. The enemy puts explosives in toys that children pick up… We try to teach kids not to pick up unfamiliar objects, especially beautiful toys🥺

Link: https://t.co/nTFKQk1lfz pic.twitter.com/6CwMLW73ky

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 18, 2023

And here’s the new episode from Patron’s YouTube channel:

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 572: Russia Opens Up on Ukraine Again TonightPost + Comments (79)

The GOP’s Collective Action Dilemma on Dobbs

by Betty Cracker|  September 18, 20231:55 pm| 117 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, The War On Women, Women's Rights Are Human Rights

Repubs have a massive Dobbs problem. It’s terrifying for GOP candidates who have to get votes outside of deep red areas, so Repub politicians and the anti-abortion activists who support them are addressing it in the usual way: lies and misdirection.

But it’s tricky because they spent decades screaming in people’s faces while trying to remove a constitutional protection for half the population. Adding to the awkwardness, their victory was delivered by an openly rigged, corrupt court that most Americans don’t trust.

That’s a lot to sweep under the rug, and the task is complicated by the fact that Repubs are embroiled in a contested presidential primary. Weirdly enough, this might be one of the few scenarios where access-based, horserace reportage can be useful. Stenography allows us to observe the narrative sausage-making from each camp in real time.

Like his rivals, Trump has tried to have it both ways on abortion. He steamrolled Kristen Welker during the NBC interview yesterday, and the take from NYT horserace specialists Haberman & Swan suggests the GOP field has a collective action dilemma: Repubs overall would be better off downplaying the issue, but individual candidates have an incentive to play it up.

Here’s a gift link to the Times piece and a few excerpts:

Asked whether Mr. DeSantis went too far by signing a six-week abortion ban, Mr. Trump replied: “I think what he did is a terrible thing and a terrible mistake…”

With Ms. Welker on Sunday, Mr. Trump again refused to clarify his position.

“What’s going to happen is you’re going to come up with a number of weeks or months,” Mr. Trump said. “You’re going to come up with a number that’s going to make people happy.”

He made a far-fetched promise that as president he would “sit down with both sides” and negotiate a deal on abortion that would result in “peace on that issue for the first time in 52 years.”

Yep, that’s definitely not going to happen, just like the “terrific,” “phenomenal” and “fantastic” replacement Trump promised for the Affordable Care Act never materialized either. But Trump, a prolific liar and equivocator, recognizes other liars and equivocators, and in that interview, he called them out or put them in a position to call themselves out.

Welker tried to pin Trump down on whether he supported federal or state level bans. It doesn’t matter, according to Trump, who remained fixated on a magic number of weeks where there’s an imaginary consensus that only he can reveal. When Welker tried to get an answer on the fetal personhood question, Trump aimed a firehose of bullshit at her, splattering his rivals in the process:

FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP: It’s much more important, the number of weeks is much more important. But something will happen with the number of weeks, the amount of time, after which you can’t do it. And you know what? The most — the most powerful people that are anti-abortion are okay with that now. And you know what? They weren’t okay with that even a year ago.

KRISTEN WELKER: Your former vice president, Mike Pence, believes that a fetus should have constitutional rights. Do you believe that, Mr. president?

FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP: Well, Mike Pence said something about 15 weeks too, which was a big change for Mike Pence, because Mike Pence had no exceptions. I have exceptions, by the way. I think people should have exceptions. I think if it’s rape or incest or the life of the mother, I think you have to have exceptions. It’s very important…

Now all of a sudden — excuse me — now all of a sudden he’s saying 15 weeks. I said, “Wow, where did that come from? That’s a radical change.” Look, something is going to happen that’s going to be good for everybody. And that’s what I’m — I’m almost like a mediator in this case.

He’s not wrong about Pence — supporting a 15-week federal ban (even while leaving draconian state bans in place) is a radical change. The forced birth gang’s willingness to engage in that bit of misdirection is a testament to how much they fear the backlash.

The Times interview notes that Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of S.B.A. Pro-Life America, was “less than thrilled” that Trump attacked DeSantis for the six-week ban but unwilling to criticize Trump. Of course she won’t criticize Trump — she’s as much of a liar as he is.

None of the forced-birth liars have the guts to say what they really want, which is to give the absurd notion of “fetal personhood” force of law and use it to control every woman who ovulates, the downstream consequences in terms of personal freedom and the ability to deliver or receive standard medical care be damned. In the pre-Dobbs world, Dannenfelser and Pence would have denounced as a baby killer any Repub who proposed a 15-week ban.

Meanwhile, the campaign mouthpiece for DeSantis used the Times coverage of the abortion issue to take a whack at Trump, and liar and equivocator Mike Pence lied and equivocated some more:

A spokesman for Mr. DeSantis, Andrew Romeo, responded to Mr. Trump’s attack by criticizing the former president for suggesting he could negotiate with Democrats on abortion, adding that the “disastrous results of Donald Trump compromising with Democrats” while he was president included “$7 trillion in new debt” and “an unfinished border wall.”

Former Vice President Mike Pence, a strict social conservative who has run to the right of everyone in the Republican presidential field on the abortion issue, cast his former running mate’s comments in stark moral terms.

“Donald Trump continues to walk away from the pro-life legacy of our administration,” Mr. Pence said in a statement Sunday morning. “There’s no negotiating when it comes to the life of the unborn. We will not rest, we will not relent, until the sanctity of life is restored to the center of American law in every state in the nation.”

To sum up, this issue isn’t going away for Repubs. In addition to the House loonies attaching forced-birth provisions to every bill in that chamber and Senator Potato Head of Alabama continuing to hold the U.S. military command structure hostage to his radical forced-birth agenda in the other, it looks like Trump and the Not-Trumps in the primary will keep the issue on the front burner through an endless slap-fight among themselves. That’s encouraging!

Open thread.

The GOP’s Collective Action Dilemma on DobbsPost + Comments (117)

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