Well, I liked it…
Another Primary Open Thread: HRClinton’s SpeechPost + Comments (353)
This post is in: Election 2016, Hillary Clinton 2016, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat
Well, I liked it…
Another Primary Open Thread: HRClinton’s SpeechPost + Comments (353)
This post is in: Election 2016, Excellent Links, Hillary Clinton 2016, Proud to Be A Democrat
Yes, it’s Politico. But, while I haven’t been able to listen to the podcast, the write-up is still worth reading. Glen Thrush interviews “Hillary Clinton’s pollster and strategist Joel Benenson”:
Joel Benenson is a world-class worrier, but he isn’t especially worried about Donald Trump in the fall…
Benenson, the Clinton campaign’s bearded principal pollster and chief strategist, can’t even bring himself to pay lip-service to Trump, whom he sees as a one-man Democratic turnout machine and a turn-off switch to moderates in both parties. His analysis of the 2016 landscape leads him to this conclusion that Trump has virtually no path to the presidency (He won’t say the same thing about Bernie Sanders) and Trump presents Clinton with renewed opportunities in purple states – especially North Carolina and Arizona…
“It’s not real,” a grinning Benenson said of Trump’s repeated claim he can defeat Clinton (or Sanders) by wrestling away swing-state voters.
“I don’t see any state that Democrats have won five out of six times, or six out of six times, that Trump, you know, at face value, poses a threat in. I just don’t see it,” said Benenson, who was the top pollster in Barack Obama’s two successful presidential campaigns.
“What’s the evidence of it? The evidence of it, they’ve turned out a lot of people. I think he’s broken 50 percent in only one state, right? … If you look at the states that Democrats have won… in five out of the last six [presidential contests], it adds up to 257 electoral votes. It means you only need 13 more to get to 270 if we perform that way.”
Other Obama alumni — including ’08 campaign manager David Plouffe — are basically on the same page, although they think Trump’s unpredictability (coupled with Clinton’s innate caution as a candidate) could cause unexpected problems. Benenson said he hasn’t polled extensively on Trump yet but he thinks Trump has so antagonized minority voters — and turned off moderate whites with his harsh rhetoric and chaotic rallies — that Clinton might exceed Obama’s 2012 total of 332 Electoral College votes…
More polling breakdown, among other details, at the link. Benenson was an Obama staffer in 2008, and he’s… not tremendously impressed with Bernie Sander, shall we say?
(via Al Giordano’s twitter feed, IIRC)
Interesting Read: “Why Team Clinton’s not sweating Trump”Post + Comments (143)
This post is in: Election 2016, Hillary Clinton 2016, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality, Republicans in Disarray!
As it turns out, most Americans are smarter than the average Trump voter https://t.co/PBWLfdqlop
— Yair Rosenberg (@Yair_Rosenberg) March 9, 2016
Clinton beats Trump on all of Trump's best issues pic.twitter.com/ddasiFu5pC
— Lachlan Markay (@lachlan) March 9, 2016
While on the other side of the argument…
Is Cruz… also excusing violence at Trump rallies on the grounds that people are really mad at Obama?
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) March 11, 2016
Cruz: You can't just yell at enemies. You need yelling and violence
— Daniel Larison (@DanielLarison) March 11, 2016
Trump: Gosh, I sure hope I haven't encouraged violence!
Tapper: Here are your quotes doing exactly that.
Trump: Those protesters were bad!
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) March 11, 2016
Also — and this really can't be stressed enough — Trump called the Tiananmen Square protests a "riot." https://t.co/lk3kCLEFOb
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) March 11, 2016
I’m gonna quote one of those candidates, too: “We win. They lose. That’s my strategy.”
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Apart from the running #facepalm tally, what’s on the agenda as we wrap up a long ragged week?
This post is in: Activist Judges!, Election 2016, Hail to the Hairpiece, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!
Senate Republicans' planned blockade of Obama Sup. Court nominee comes as Gallup has Obama approval at 51%, Congressional approval at 13%
— Comeback Decade (@comebackdecade) March 10, 2016
WSJ/NBC Poll finds majority of voters disapprove of Republicans’ Supreme Court delay https://t.co/JEUs7g6liX
— Capital Journal (@WSJPolitics) March 9, 2016
As BettyC so kindly pointed out, there was another Democratic debate last night, this time on Spanish-language Univision in cooperation with the Washington Post. New and intelligent questions were asked, and both candidates responded in an adult fashion, much to the disappointment of the Media Village Idiots.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign manager seems to have manhandled a female reporter from “the famously Trump-friendly Breitbart News“… and her employers signally failed to support her. In case anyone needed a further clue as to Repub social values…
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Apart from that, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Thursday Morning Open Thread: Same Stuff…Post + Comments (155)
This post is in: Bernie Sanders 2016, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton 2016, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!
A special congrats to Hillary for her victory in Mississippi on International Women's Day. If you win the nomination we will be there w/ you
— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) March 9, 2016
Yeah, the MAJOR! BREAKING! news from the Tuesday primaries is that Bernie Sanders won Michigan, which a lot of very smart well-informed people (as opposed to Very Serious People) said was impossible. So the #Berniacs get bragging rights on that one. Political horse-race tout Chris Cillizza in the Washington Post:
… [I]n the bigger and high-profile state of Michigan, Sanders heavily overperformed polling that showed Clinton ahead by 20 points or more. Winning a big Midwestern state is of deep symbolic importance for Sanders, who was on the verge of being cast as a nuisance candidate by many Democrats.
Sanders may have also found an issue where he can do real damage to Clinton as the campaign goes forward. Almost six in 10 Michigan Democratic primary voters said international trade takes away U.S. jobs, according to exit polling. Among that group Sanders won by roughly 20 percentage points over Clinton. That could — and should — bode well for his efforts in Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin and other states where international trade has ravaged the economy. “What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign … is strong in every part of the country,” Sanders said in brief remarks in Florida Tuesday night. “We believe our strongest areas are yet to happen.”
Sanders had previously pledged to stay in the race through the June 7 primaries and, as I’ve noted, he has plenty of money to do so. Now he has even more reason to do so…
Apart from the anti-trade-agreement voters, Sanders won about twice as many Arab-American votes as Clinton. (I think we can safely assume those voters will *not* throw their support to Trump in the general, be they never so disappointed in Clinton’s foreign policy ideas.) There was also anecdotal discussion of Democratic voters satisfied with either Clinton or Sanders in the general election “crossing over” to cast spoiler votes for Kasich against Trump. The nut graf remains: Sanders got the win, and he’ll do his best to parlay that in future primaries.
In exit poll, 61% of Mississippi Dem voters are black — up from 50% in the 2008 Obama-Clinton primary there.
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) March 8, 2016
As in rest of South I credit that to white conservatives fleeing the Obama-era Dems https://t.co/2gG1sIPEVc
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) March 8, 2016
Meanwhile, in the Repubs in Disarray! clown show…
In Mississippi, Trump won:
– 57% of the angry vote (Cruz won 33%)
– 65% of the non-establishment vote (Cruz won 27%)— MJ Lee (@mj_lee) March 9, 2016
Poor guy shuts down the government, still can't get no respect https://t.co/VnvAFnmNm9
— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) March 9, 2016
BREAKING: Trump is projected winner in Michigan GOP primary; Cruz & Kasich vying for second: https://t.co/SOgAeTEZ1u pic.twitter.com/9w5SYAvqLm
— NBC News (@NBCNews) March 9, 2016
If only there were a GOP figure with ties to Michigan that could have given a scathing anti Trump speech recently. https://t.co/pqfncHYOAy
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) March 9, 2016
NEW POLL: Romney speech helped Trump gain support https://t.co/s0eabW5yYV pic.twitter.com/4ToUQ6YPQ8
— The Hill (@thehill) March 8, 2016
Do you think Rubio's hitting refresh on this to see if his face starts draining of color? pic.twitter.com/qwOXS2Ax6T
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) March 9, 2016
Ahead of the RNC, Cleveland stocking up on riot gear. https://t.co/fJYpJO2ZEM
— Michael Li (@mcpli) March 8, 2016
Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Congratulations, Sen. Sanders!Post + Comments (204)
This post is in: Cruz-ifiction, Election 2016, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Assholes, Republican Crime Syndicate - aka the Bush Admin.
UPDATE: senators still hate Ted Cruz. pic.twitter.com/mjWPHx4B1N
— Olivia Nuzzi (@Olivianuzzi) March 8, 2016
"We thought we had them penned up and ready for branding, but some idiot turned off the electronic fence." pic.twitter.com/LW1a4Stdef
— Billmon (@billmon1) March 8, 2016
And yet — Politico, this afternoon:
Ted Cruz on Tuesday nabbed an unlikely endorsement: the backing of a Bush.
Neil Bush, a brother of George W. Bush and Jeb Bush, was listed (along with his wife) as one of 13 new additions to Cruz’s national finance team. The campaign said the new additions are all former supporters of other candidates, including Bush, Rand Paul, Rick Perry and Marco Rubio.
This follows the release last week of a list of several other previous Jeb Bush backers now supporting Cruz, whose hardline conservative approach is generally at odds with the one Jeb Bush took…
That would be Neil ‘Silverado-Ignite!’ Bush, runt of his litter. The GOP “Establishment” — such as it remains — lunges for what it perceives as the least worse choice. Another ‘risky’ tactic in a season of increasingly wild swings. Per Bloomberg View:
… The bad news [for the RNC] is that the vehicle of Trump’s defeat is turning out to be Senator Ted Cruz. With his faux-folksy recitations of Dr. Seuss and “The Princess Bride,” his singular insistence that Obamacare could be repealed, and non-stop obstruction fueled by his self-regard as the only principled man in Washington, he helped grind governing to a halt in recent years. One of the few points of bipartisan agreement on Capitol Hill is antipathy to Cruz. Vice President Joe Biden captured the feeling at the annual Gridiron Club dinner on March 5, joking that if President Barack Obama really wanted to put his mark on the Supreme Court, he should name Cruz to the open seat. “Before you know it, you’ll have eight vacancies.”
The emergence of Cruz as the savior of his party offers the painful choice between a fast death by gunfire (Trump romping to an unbeatable plurality of delegates within days) or a slow one by poison, as Cruz chips away at Trump’s lead with his latest wins in Kansas and Maine. But there’s no time to waste. The most super of Tuesdays is coming up on March 15 with the winner-take-all contests in Ohio and Florida. If Trump were to win both, the fat lady has sung.
That makes the strategy Cruz announced Friday perilous. Rather than stop Trump from pocketing 99 delegates in Florida by leaving Senator Marco Rubio to consolidate the anti-Trump vote on his own, Cruz has chosen to try to kill off Rubio in the Sunshine State. He announced Friday that he would be moving big time into Florida, opening 10 offices, buying ads, and spending much of his time there…
Say what you will about Satan, but at least he's a consistent conservative who doesn't talk about the size of his dick at debates.
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) March 8, 2016
Vox has a long, painstakingly comprehensive explainer on “Why Ted Cruz might torpedo the strategy to stop Trump”:
Donald Trump is poised to win the Florida primary on March 15, giving him all 99 of the state’s delegates in its winner-take-all primary… But there’s one candidate who might be able to stop Trump and save the strategy: Marco Rubio.
Rubio is still behind Trump in the polls in his home state. But he’s been closing the gap. A Monmouth poll released Monday found Rubio only 8 percentage points behind Trump. And thanks to early voting, which started in Florida on Saturday, Rubio probably has a serious head start on John Kasich and Ted Cruz…
But Ted Cruz doesn’t want to stop Trump; he wants to win. And to keep his chances alive, Cruz is willing to kneecap Rubio in Florida and hand the state to Trump…
…[T]he Cruz campaign’s goal: not necessarily to beat Rubio in Florida, but to convince him to drop out and narrow the field for the rest of the primaries.
The problem is that if Rubio doesn’t win Florida’s 99 delegates, someone else will. And that someone is likely to be Donald Trump. Then, he’ll be on pace to win an outright majority of delegates by the end of the primary.
That’s the “stop Trump” crowd’s worst nightmare. As long as Trump doesn’t have a majority of delegates, they can force a brokered convention in July, and presumably emerge with a non-Trump nominee..
I'm puzzled by this strange universe in which Ted Cruz is expected to play nice with rivals in pursuit of a shared goal
— Simon Maloy (@SimonMaloy) March 8, 2016
Ted Cruz doesn’t care about the RNC’s “non-Trump nominee”; he cares about Ted Cruz. He was perfectly happy to (literally) embrace Donald Trump as long as it seemed Trump might attract new primary voters who might stick around after Trump got bored/was forced out; he’s never quite stopped angling for the chance to be Trump’s VP candidate (no doubt looking to Cheney as a role model). Going into Cleveland with a yet-to-be-determined winner and a solid bloc of devoted evangelical/libertarian behind him is far from the worst scenario for Ted Cruz…
Shhhh: No one tell the Republican Establishment that Cruz is the guy we most want to run against
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) March 8, 2016
Open Thread: Repubs Turn Their Lonely Eyes to… <em>‘Satan’?</em>Post + Comments (219)
This post is in: Bernie Sanders 2016, Election 2016, Excellent Links, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Fools! Overton Window!
America is like the latest episodes of Game Of Thrones in that nerds who read all the books have no idea what the fuck is going on anymore
— Erin Gloria Ryan (@morninggloria) March 2, 2016
As a sidebar to Cole’s excellent post last night, here’s Jamelle Bouie, at Slate, on “The Real Difference Between Hillary and Bernie”:
… Primaries obscure this, but parties are far more than their voters. They are the volunteers that give time, the donors that give money, the local and state officials that build organizations, the recruiters that find candidates, etc. They are also loose coalitions of groups and interests that work in tandem for common goals and, equally, work against each other for particular gains. Some are more powerful than others, and that influences the broad direction and shape of the parties.
In addition to chief executive and commander in chief, the president of the United States is also the leader of his or her party. And as much as anything else, the president has to navigate these groups and interests, as well as communicate with other party members, from congressional leaders to local and state party officials…
Hillary Clinton, a prominent leader from the ideological center of the Democratic Party, is running to lead the Democratic coalition as it exists. She wants to lead the party as much as she wants to be president. Which makes her more attentive to traditional party building—she’s pledged to devote resources to boosting state parties and candidates—and more cautious with her rhetoric. Liberals in the Democratic coalition are opposed to fracking, but many rural and purple state Democrats aren’t. Clinton doesn’t want to alienate either, so she tries to satisfy both.
Bernie Sanders, by contrast, comes from the left wing of American politics with a nominal attachment to the Democratic Party—until his run for the presidency, he didn’t identify as a Democrat. He’s not as concerned with the usual party building and coalition maintenance. He wants to change the terms of the institution that is the Democratic Party and put ideological liberals at the fulcrum of Democratic politics, in the same way that ideological conservatives sit at the center of Republican politics. And so, his appeals are broad and expansive. He doesn’t worry about details as much as he focuses on energizing like-minded voters. Rather than trying to satisfy Democrats in conservative places, Sanders is trying to reduce their influence by attracting sympathetic voters (his “political revolution”).
The problem for Sanders is that ideological liberals are one faction among many, and they compete for influence with party stalwarts like union members and black Americans, who offer support based on transaction—what can you do for the interests of our specific group—as much as belief. To win on his terms, Sanders has to grow the space for ideological politics in those groups and satisfy its more moderate and conservative members. This is hard (I call them “stalwarts” for a reason), and it’s why Sanders has had a hard time in states where they play an important part…
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Apart from political self-examination, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Clash of ConceptsPost + Comments (286)