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mad magazine classic: spy vs. spy

Silverman on Security

You are here: Home / Archives for Silverman on Security

Ask and You Shall Receive: Counter to Countering Terrorism Edition

by Adam L Silverman|  November 16, 201511:14 pm| 130 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Silverman on Security, War

Both John and Ann Laurie have touched on the domestic, US political response to Syrian refugees in the wake of Friday’s attacks in Paris. And in the article John cites there is a reference to the suspicion that the Syrian passports found with the attackers were forged/fake. That was actually confirmed yesterday. And the Egyptian passport found at the scene belonged to one of the victims, an Egyptian national, who was attending the match at the Stade National. It has also been suggested that part of the motivation for the attacks, specifically for the targeting, was that it would increase suspicion of refugees, as well as push public opinion and political elites to reject Syrian refugees.

From a strategic viewpoint, this makes perfect sense for ISIS. Part of their argument is that only Muslims who accept tawheed, the radical unity of the Deity, are really Muslims and the only place one can really be a Muslim is one ruled by Muslims who accept tawheed (these Muslims are called muwaheedun) for those who accept tawheed. Moreover, ISIS’s recruiting argument to support this doctrinal/theological/ideological contention is that true Muslims are not welcome and not safe anywhere else. By casting suspicion on Muslim refugees, whether they are from Syria or other states, and enflaming public and political passions against accepting refugees in specific and Muslims in general, they are able to create a self fulfilling prophecy. What ISIS wants is for the US and other states to clamp down on admitting refugees. And they want threats against and actual violence against Muslim citizens of these states to increase. A self fulfilling/self sustaining effort.

But only if we actually play into ISIS’s hands. ISIS’s strategy can only be successful if we give them what they want. They do not have the ways and means to achieve their ends – they need us to provide them for them! This was also the case with bin Laden. If you go back and look at bin Laden’s stated goals in his Letter to America, you’ll see a list of what he wanted to achieve. Click over, read or reread them, and see just how many of his goals were achieved. And then ask yourself how many were only achievable if we overreacted and provided the ways and means for him to achieve his ends. Terrorism, whether its ISIS or al Qaeda or some group not yet in existence, is not an existential threat for western states and societies. The reactions and responses that these groups’ actions try to evoke through the use of terrorism in western states and societies is, however, a potential existential threat. Combatting terrorism can only be successful if it is done on our terms, not those set by and beneficial to the terrorists themselves.

* The featured image are internally displaced Iraqi children between Jisr Diyala and Abu Thayla, Mada’in Qada, Iraq. I took this picture, as well as several others in the summer of 2008. We had stopped to provide their parents with some humanitarian assistance supplies: basic dry staples and sundries and clothes and some toys for the children. They had fled from north of Baghdad and were squatting in a building at an industrial site.

Ask and You Shall Receive: Counter to Countering Terrorism EditionPost + Comments (130)

Very Early AM Open Thread

by Adam L Silverman|  November 14, 201512:04 am| 62 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Silverman on Security

Since its been a few hours since the last post, and I’m sure the insomniacs and night owls could use it, here’s a fresh thread to follow up on the events in Paris or anything else you wish to remark on.

Very Early AM Open ThreadPost + Comments (62)

Paris Attack Updates: Updated with France 24 Live Feed; Updated Again and Again

by Adam L Silverman|  November 13, 20156:39 pm| 170 Comments

This post is in: Silverman on Security, War

Since Betty C’s thread is a few hours old, here’s a front page update on the attacks in Paris. The BBC is reporting that there was an explosion near the Stade de France, though it is unclear if this was a suicide attack or a more conventional bombing. The Beeb is also reporting fifteen killed near the Bataclan Arts Center and up to sixty people being held hostage there. Finally, they’re reporting that France has closed its borders!

I’m sure we’ll all be updating each other as the night and the weekend goes on, but we should all keep two important points in mind: 1) the reporting is going to change several times as new information becomes available, so what seems to be an accurate now may not be in a few hours. And 2) terrorism, no matter how repugnant or terrible, is a very low probability event. Terrorists real targets aren’t the immediate victims, they are the rest of us; their intention is to scare us into taking actions we would never ordinarily do.

Finally, all of our thoughts and prayers are with the people of France.

Update: Anoniminous provided the link to France 24’s live feed. So no one has to go looking for it, the link is here:

France 24 Live Feed

Update 2: France 24 just reported that the law enforcement response at the Bataclan is complete and two of the hostage takers are dead.

Update 3: In comments Robert Waldman posted the following, which I thought was important enough to be seen as part of the actual post on the front page:

“Anyone stranded in Paris reading Balloon Juice on a smart phone might be interested in the twitter hastag #PorteOuverte (open door). It is being used by people offering shelter to the stranded and by stranded people seeking shelter. Parisians are hosting stranded strangers who don’t think they can safely return to their homes or hotels.

The standard suggestion is to communicate location only privately with direct messages in case there are terrorists on twitter.”

Thanks Robert!

 

 

Paris Attack Updates: Updated with France 24 Live Feed; Updated Again and AgainPost + Comments (170)

A Dustbowl Where a Breadbasket Should Be

by Adam L Silverman|  November 12, 20158:29 pm| 71 Comments

This post is in: Photo Blogging, Silverman on Security, War

 

That big blue space west of the City of Baghdad, Mada’in Qada, was where I was deployed in Iraq. It is part of the agricultural belt that rings Baghdad. We also had an assumed risk are south of Mada’in in Wassit Province and, for about six to eight weeks, we had southern Diyala Province, which is just north of Mada’in. Eventually my Brigade Combat Team (BCT) also picked up Mahmoudiya Qada. This gave the Army’s non-modular, legacy brigade  the entire southwestern, southern, and eastern belt/approaches to Baghdad. That’s a lot of territory for 4,500 people to cover. Since this is going to be a photo/picture heavy post, I’m going to put most of it under the fold in order to not swamp the front page.

show full post on front page

Mada’in, meaning the two cities, draws its name from Mercez Mada’in (the Center of the Two Cities), which was located where Salman Pak now is. If you see that little peninsula on the map, the Steya Peninsula, where the Tigris river is bisecting Mada’in and Mahmoudiya Qadas, Salman Pak is on the right side of the river. Apparently there was once a bridge or palace or underground tunnel or all three that spanned the river, hence the Center of the Two Cities designation. The Steya Peninsula is home to the Arch of Kesra/Kesra Palace, which is the largest freestanding mud brick parabolic arch in the world. Its on the World Heritage list and in October 2008 I was part of a team from the brigade, and from our infantry battalion in that area, that escorted an Assistant Secretary of State for Heritage on a visit to the arch. This was notable for two reasons: 1) this was the highest ranking Bush 43 Administration official to actually travel out of the Green Zone and 2) the US, as one could imagine, was very concerned that the arch not fall down or become damage while we were occupying the country as it is important to both the Iraqis and the Iranians. The Arch of Kesra, as seen from out the side of the Blackhawk I was riding in, can be seen below.

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You can see that even here, which is less that two kilometers from the Tigris, its almost bone dry. Normally the tribe that lives in this area made its livelihood farming with water pumped from the Tigris. This was, unfortunately, impossible back in 2008 for two reasons: 1) the power grid was not in good condition, so there wasn’t a lot of energy/electricity for the pumping stations to work consistently (more on this in a bit) and 2) an Iraqi Army Tank Battalion had occupied the Steya Peninsula, largely squatting on the tribal farming lands, as part of their defensive position to interdict extremists trying to reach Baghdad.

Salman Pak is also famous for the Salman al Farsi Mosque. Salman al Farsi, sometimes referred to as Salman the Barber, was a companion of Prophet Muhammed and was his barber. While Salman never converted to Islam, he is considered to have lived a righteous life and locations associated with his life are important to Twelver Shi’a Muslims. The mosque is believed to be built upon Salman’s remains, though it is unclear if he is entombed under the mosque or of it is just part of him, like a Catholic reliquary. The Salman al Farsi Mosque, as photographed from the Arch of Kesra is below:

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The mosque, or more accurately its waqf/administrative council, is the largest land owner in Salman Pak and a significant portion of the Salman Pak marketplace is built into the walls surrounding the mosque – like an arcade. Through 2009 the mosque was in dispute as there was a fight over whether it should be a Sunni or Shi’i mosque and as a result was locked and not being used. This was a huge blow to the local economy as it also shuttered the stores built into the spaces in the mosques external, outward facing walls and because it reduced the amount of pilgrims that would come to the city to see the mosque and pray there. Combined with the Arch of Kesra also being closed, this was a huge economic issue. In October 2008 my team was able to identify the local individual who was the keeper of the official documentation on the mosque and we directed the appropriate Coalition military leadership to him in an attempt to settle the matter and get the mosque reopened. I don’t think it really did any good and as far as I know the mosque is still closed.

So let’s talk agriculture, or the lack thereof. Iraqi agriculture works off of an irrigation canal system. For those from New Mexico or Arizona or Spain and parts of Mexico you’ll know this as similar to the acequia type of system where water is pumped from primary to secondary to tertiary canals – the last of which are what are used to irrigate specific farms and fields. Water is pumped from pumping stations along the river, in the case of where we were the Tigris and Diyala Rivers. Unfortunately the Coalition Provisional Authority had determined that the Iraqis would fix their own power system – both generation and transmission, that they had ten years to do so, and that they were to do it by implementing a private system. The result of this was that even though we knew where the pumping stations were and where the power lines that needed to be repaired and rewired and reconnected were, our Engineering Battalion wasn’t allowed to do anything about it. So no reliable/regular power, no water, no reliable water, no irrigation for palmyries and fields. And this led to other problems. Because everything had become so dry, the highly saline nature of the Iraqi ground had taken over. So even if water could be pumped, a season or two of throw away crops would need to be planted to draw the salt out of the ground. Our Civil Affairs company recommended sorghum, but without water…

This is a picture taken while in a Blackhawk as we were crossing over the Tigris River:

100_2214

You can see that there is some greenery and some of the fields have crops growing. However, once you get farther away from the river, things get bone dry:

100_2237

Here’s some shots from the Four Corners area in Mada’in. Its where the major North-South and East-West roads intersect. There’s a market on the Northwest and Southwest corners, a shopping center with a restaurant on the Northeast corner and just north of that was a patrol base.

100_1464

In the picture above are local Sons of Iraq guys that were escorting us. Behind them is the restaurant I mentioned and where their leader took us for lunch. This was to show everyone how much wasta/influence he had that he could bring a member of the brigade staff to a restaurant… The food was excellent!

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Here you can see some of the market. Most of the food, especially the packaged stuff was being imported from Turkey, Iran, and/or Syria.

 

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This is not the local petting zoo… It is the local butcher shop. And I’ve spared you the pictures of the butcher plying his trade.

 

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Here’s another shop. The market had plenty of stuff for sale, sundries, dry goods, and other food stuffs, but where a lot of it should’ve been local grown/produced, it was, unfortunately having to be imported.

 

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This is a cow (Inoright?) belonging to an internally displaced family. They brought it with them when they fled south to stay with relatives. This area was west of Four Dunhams in the center of our Area of Responsibility. Parts had patches of green surrounded by lots of dry dusty land.

 

100_1303_01

Let me just tie this all up by indicating, as Villagio often points out in comments, that the drought conditions are a primary driver to the problems in the Levant. My team began tracking this in Fall 2007 when we were informed that our brigade wasn’t going to Northern Iraq, but instead was going South and East of Baghdad. Even if you could get all the various sectarian and ethnic groups to back off and stop fighting, until something is done to mitigate the drought conditions, resource competition will always be a major source of conflict in the Levant.

A Dustbowl Where a Breadbasket Should BePost + Comments (71)

Source material

by Adam L Silverman|  November 11, 201511:07 pm| 35 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Foreign Affairs, Media, Silverman on Security, Blogospheric Navel-Gazing, DC Press Corpse, Our Failed Media Experiment

Chris, in a comment to my post on Syria, Strategy, and Policy, asked me about what I look at for source material. While both Cervantes and BobS weighed in with some good recommendations, I promised I’d put something up for Chris yesterday. This has slipped to today. I’m going to break this into three parts and actually start with the final third.

A lot of my research and analytical work is done using open source resources. When I do this type of work I’m basically relying on targeted key word searches that lead me to source material. I then vet that source material in several ways. First, I try to vet the author and the outlet. So if its on a blog or some other form of commentary site, I’m looking to see if I can identify the author and determine if they actually know anything about what they’re talking about and what, if any, biases I can determine. I’m also looking for links to related material at every source I’m looking at. For two reasons: 1) as documentation/citation for what I’m reading and 2) to widen my source material pool as I’m working my way through the subject search. I’m also constantly bookmarking and saving links to potential material that I might possibly need in the future. So that’s a portion of how I go about looking for, finding, and vetting source material. I go where the search takes me, vet continuously, and work the links in the sources I’m finding. The kind of work I do requires me to basically live in information overload, so I do.

So now back to the first third. For news sources, as in straight news reporting and not commentary, I largely avoid US news media. Rather than CNN or FOX or ABC or etc, I prefer the BBC, al Jazeera English, Agency France Press, the Guardian. I will use the AP and Reuters wires, as well as the Christian Science Monitor and McClatchy. For long form reporting I’ve found that the best stuff seems to be at Harpers, Vanity Fair, Rolling Stone, Pro Publica, the New Yorker, and likely several others I’m forgetting. Overall, however, I tend to avoid initial straight news reporting from the US news media. Some of this goes out the window when I doing open source research and analysis. So if, while doing that, the best source is CNN or Time, I’ll use it. So that’s an important caveat.

In the middle third I understood Chris to be asking about material pertaining to the Middle East. I have several go to sites that I like to start with depending on the issue. These include Juan Cole’s Informed Comment (full disclosure: I’ve guest written a couple of posts for Professor Cole, specifically back in 2008 and 2009 shortly after I got back from Iraq) and COL Lang’s Sic Semper Tyrannis (full disclosure for those not paying attention: I used to be a front pager there and COL Lang helped train me). One of my favorite sites regarding the Middle East is Jadaliyya. Great site, interesting and informative material across a variety of topics. I also like to use the Middle East Monitor and for Israel-Palestinian specific issues +927 Magazine. I’ve also used the National AE, as well as Haaretz. A great site, that I actually used a lot when deployed to Iraq to get a good overview, is Musings on Iraq. The Al Monitor is very useful as they provide good translations of reports from Middle Eastern news sources. There are other sources that I use, but I don’t think we need to belabor this.

And that, as they say, is that. I know I promised to do something about the Levantine drought and I’ll try to get that up tomorrow. Everyone have a great night! Or evening for those of you in Mountain, Pacific, or points farther west.

Source materialPost + Comments (35)

Happy Veterans Day

by Adam L Silverman|  November 11, 20152:32 pm| 159 Comments

This post is in: Absent Friends, Silverman on Security, War

Veterans-Day*

Just a quick post to wish John, Soonergrunt, and all the other veterans who read and/or comment here at Ballon Juice, and those who don’t, a Happy and Healthy Veteran’s Day!

It is, however, also important to remember as Shakezula at Laywers, Guns, and Money points out, that there are over 25 homeless veterans in the US per every 10,000 US veterans! I would argue that this is both a national political and a national moral disgrace. I leave you all with Five Finger Death Punch’s take on this:

* Veterans Day image was found here.

Happy Veterans DayPost + Comments (159)

Syria, Policy, and Strategy

by Adam L Silverman|  November 9, 20154:36 pm| 153 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War

Syria_Ethno-religious_composition.

Yesterday, Secretary of Defense Carter indicated that additional troops might be deployed to Syria in the future. Secretary Carter’s remarks were highly nuanced. He made it clear that any additional US Forces going to Syria would be contingent on identifying legitimate host country partners to partner with. This discussion of potential deployment of troops, however, misses something important: what is the strategic objective we are trying to achieve?

Unless or until someone can clearly articulate what the objective is for Syria, then everything else being suggested is simply tactical whack a mole! I have yet to see anyone, American elected or appointed official, European elected or appointed official, pundits, commentators, the Syrians themselves, explain just what the goal is: beyond removing Assad. And removing Assad is not the objective, it is a way to the end. Until someone can delineate what happens once the fighting stops, we do not have a coherent policy. The same goes for dealing with the related mess in Iraq.

And without a coherent policy we cannot have a successful strategy. As a close friend and colleague likes to say: “policy cannot ask of strategy what policy will not provide.” These issues go to an important question that is all too often not asked: what does it take to win the peace? Winning on the battlefield is, comparatively, easy: find the enemy, fix them in place, and reduce their capacity/capability to continue to fight. This is easier, provided you have the numbers, the will, and the logistics in a conventional interstate war. It is far harder in an irregular conflict where war is being made among the people. But in both of these the ultimate issue is what happens once the fighting stops. Managing the post conflict reality is really the hard part.

We had a highly developed understanding of the need to answer this question during World War II. After watching what happened with how World War I was resolved, and the inability of the victors to secure the peace, we developed the Marshal Plan for Europe and a similar plan for Japan and other parts of the Pacific theater. The result is that, unlike WW I, the allies not only won the war, but they won the peace. This was partially by enabling the losers of WW II to also prosper and to seemingly become the long term winners of the peace.

Until or unless we develop an actual set of objectives for conflict prosecution, termination, and post conflict redevelopment and stability there is little point in doing anything other than providing support for refugees and trying to contain the situation. This includes supporting our allies and partners in the region in dealing with the refugee and extremism/terrorism situations that they are facing. Without a coherent description of what Syria and Iraq ultimately should become, and without actual, reliable host country partners to provide that vision to us and to work with us to achieve it, there will be no resolution to the Syrian Civil War and the Iraqi conflict.

Syria, Policy, and StrategyPost + Comments (153)

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