Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

The revolution will be supervised.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

So fucking stupid, and still doing a tremendous amount of damage.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

Dear legacy media: you are not here to influence outcomes and policies you find desirable.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

If America since Jan 2025 hasn’t broken your heart, you haven’t loved her enough.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,416: The Last Non-Delusional Staffer Has Left the Administration

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Here are some of Ukraine’s outgoing fires this evening:

Ukrainian drones currently active over Russian airspace, per monitoring reports.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 11:55 AM

LTG (ret) Keith Kellogg has officially left the administration. Officially because he was functionally pushed out by Trump months ago. He gave an exit interview to Britain’s iTV News.

Keith Kellogg:

Zelensky is a tough son of a bitch.

I remember telling President Trump at one time that “Sir, he is a lot like you.”

​I’m not talking about stature type, but he’s stubborn. He has his opinion. He’s unafraid to say that. He knows how to use media.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 1:35 PM

And I said to people within this administration: ​”We in the United States have not seen a leader like him since Abraham Lincoln.”

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 1:35 PM

The he that LTG Kellogg is referring to is President Zelenskyy, not Trump.

Keith Kellogg:

Well, I’m an old Cold War warrior, in the sense. I still don’t have a lot of trust in what the Russians want or don’t want. I don’t think you outlive your roots. And I think he [Putin] would like to rebuild his empire.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 10, 2026 at 2:05 PM

LTG Kellogg was the only senior staffer in the Trump administration – natsec, foreign, or domestic policy – who was actually tethered to and dealing with reality. That doesn’t mean he isn’t exceedingly conservative or that he doesn’t support Trump, but that he at least had some sense of what actually is. Which is part of the reason he is not a former senior Trump administration official.

Here’s the full interview.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,415: When Winter First Begins To Bite

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A painting by the Ukrainain artist NEIVANMADE. The upper 1/2 is grey and there are black Shahed drones on it aimed towards the bottom of the painting. The bottom half of the painting has a blood red background and in the center of the bottom is a house, to it's left is a swing set, and to its right is a car. They are charcoal grey on the blood red background background. The drones are targeting the house, swing set, and car. Above the house and below the drones are the words "Russia Kills To Erase Free People".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here’s the Russian butcher’s bill and Ukrainian air defense tally from yesterday:

‼️ Official: Russia carried out a strike on Ukraine using the Oreshnik missile, – the Air Force of Ukraine.

The main axis of attack was Kyiv Oblast.

Air defenses intercepted 18 of 36 missiles and 226 of 242 UAVs:

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:59 AM

▪️ 8 of 13 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M and S-400).
▪️ 10 of 22 cruise missiles (Kalibr).
▪️ 0 of 1 medium-range ballistic missile (launched from Kapustin Yar, Astrakhan region).

Impacts were recorded from 18 missiles and 16 attack UAVs across 19 locations.

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:59 AM

Approximate map of the routes taken by the missiles and drones that attacked Ukraine last night

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 10:59 AM

Russia murders Ukrainians with drones, bombs, and missiles every single day. Every day!

Yet when they launch one ridiculous Wunderwaffe to project strength, that’s all the news outlets want to talk about, playing straight into russian propaganda’s hands.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 9:58 AM

Russia continues to hammering Ukrainian electricity generation and transmission infrastructure to cause maximum civilian harm during a very cold stretch of early January.

Kyiv. No water. No electricity since 5 a.m.
I couldn’t reach my granny today on the phone.

In the coming days, temperatures will drop almost to −20°C.

Russia is using the cold weather to terrorize civilians. I hate that fucking country.

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 1:49 PM

Half of Kyiv — almost six thousand high-rise homes — were left without heating in Kyiv after the russian massive attack.

It’s minus 8 degrees Celsius now going down to minus 17 tomorrow night (!)

Could you imagine half of your city getting frozen by the terrorist state?

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 5:04 AM

If the west wasn’t filled to the brim with backstabbing bastards and spineless bitches Moscow would be going through this, not Kyiv

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— Dmytro Spivakov (@dmytro-spivakov.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 9:31 AM

⚡️Kyiv Mayor Klitschko urges residents to ‘temporarily leave city’ as Russia targets critical infrastructure.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko called on residents of the capital, if possible, to leave the city after a Russian attack on Jan. 9 left half of the city’s apartment buildings without heating.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 9, 2026 at 7:24 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko called on residents of the capital, if possible, to leave the city after a Russian attack on Jan. 9 left half of the city’s apartment buildings without heating.

As temperatures dropped below -10°C (14°F), Russia launched a mass attack on Ukraine overnight with 242 drones and 36 missiles, with Kyiv and its surrounding areas being the primary targets, the Air Force reported. The attack hit energy infrastructure facilities and multiple residential buildings in the capital, killing at least four people and injuring 19 others.

“We are doing everything we can to resolve this as quickly as possible. However, the combined attack on Kyiv last night was the most devastating for the capital’s critical infrastructure,” Klitschko said.

As of the time of publication, heating was knocked out in about 6,000 apartment buildings across Kyiv — nearly half of the city’s total — following the Russian attack overnight, according to the mayor.

The city is also facing water supply interruptions, with emergency power outages being introduced.

“I appeal to the residents of the capital, who have the opportunity to temporarily leave the city for places where there are alternative sources of power and heat, to do so,” Klitschko said.

The mayor said that hospitals and maternity wards have been reconnected to power and heating. Efforts to restore power and heating for residential homes in Kyiv is ongoing.

Mykola Kolisnyk, deputy energy minister, said that the fewer consumers there are, “the easier it is to handle the situation.” If there is no heating supply, residents start using electricity to heat their homes, which, in turn, increases electricity consumption, the official added.

“This is why, when the population is more, let’s say spread across villages and other regions, there will be less pressure specifically in one city,” Kolisnyk told the Kyiv Independent.

Kyiv, home to around 4 million people, has endured multiple of Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale war in 2022. Over past months, Moscow has continued pounding energy facilities, with Ukrainian officials warning that Russia is attempting to shut down the energy grid region by region.

In recent days, Russia has targeted regional capitals in the east and south, leaving Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts without power on the evening of Jan. 7.

Russian forces also targeted critical infrastructure in the western Lviv Oblast overnight on Jan. 9, launching its new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,414: A Brief Thursday Night Update

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A black and white cartoon with Popeye the Sailor Man facing forward and to the left. His word bubble says "I Yam Disgustipated"

I know it was another rough day for most of you all, so I’m going to just go through the basics again tonight. I will just make two points. First, it is going to get worse, much much much worse, before it gets better. Second, this only ends one way: in blood; lots and lots of blood.

Watching police violence against protesters is deeply triggering for me, bringing back memories of Ukraine before the Revolution of Dignity. What happened in the US is horrific and wrong. Sending so much love and solidarity to you guys.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 11:22 AM

It was another long day of Russian strikes against Ukrainian civilians and civilian targets again today. Attacks which have continued into what is now this morning in Ukraine. I’ll get to all of that after the jump.

One of the reasons these attacks continue is because Putin and his key aides have concluded that the leadership of the EU and its member states is unable to, unwilling to, or unable and unwilling to actually put their money where their mouth is.

By saying you will only send soldiers to help Ukraine after the war is over, you ensure I will not stop it.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) January 8, 2026 at 9:37 AM

It’s a sad statement on reality that a parody account is much more clear eyed in regard to reality than the leadership and natsec/foreign policy establishment of the US, the EU, and far too many of its member states.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,413: A Brief Wednesday Night Update

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A black and white cartoon with Popeye the Sailor Man facing forward and to the left. His word bubble says "I Yam Disgustipated"

I know it’s been a long, tragic, horrifying, day that has everyone one a fine edge, so I’m just going to run through the basics really quickly and call it a night.

I do want to start with this excerpt from Lincoln’s speech at the Cooper Union:

Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events.

Back to the topic at hand.

Imagine that:

US did NOT SIGN the Paris “letter of intent” that describes how peace in Ukraine will be monitored by the US while Europe provides troops etc – distancing itself from the EU.

In fact, US hasn’t signed anything that the coalition of willing has agreed to.

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 7, 2026 at 8:18 AM

As I wrote last night:

As with all of these leaks of what the US will do, might do, could do, etc, I’ll believe it when I see it.

And as usual, we’re not going to see it.

However we’ve not got Jared’s sex pest convicted extortionist father involved in trying to shake down the Ukrainians:

Now Kushner Sr is part of these “discussions”? US hasn’t signed a single document that the coalition of the willing signed yesterday. In particular, the one where US is mentioned to be “overseeing” potential ceasefire. Come on.

Too many words to say that you discussed Blackrock owning UA assets.

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 7, 2026 at 10:51 AM

I’m pretty sure that if you could explain what the Kushner family has become and then ask the Bielskys whether it was worth the risk to rescue Jared’s grandparents, they’d say no.

President Zelenskyy did not make a daily address today as he was again traveling. In this case to a meeting of the Council of Europe where he made an address to that body. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,412: The Coalition of the Willing Plus Jared!!!!

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President Zelenskyy travelled to France today for a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing plus Jared. You know, Jared who is not a US government official, has no position in the US government, and is therefore part of official meetings representing his investment fund father in law or something.

A meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” in Paris brought together 27 national leaders, alongside senior leadership from the EU and NATO, as well as representatives of the US.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 2:22 PM

He did have to share a podium with Witkoff.

Witkoff: We’re largely finished with security protocols, which are important so that the people of Ukraine know that when this ends, it ends forever.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 6, 2026 at 2:29 PM

A meme of COL Hogan, COL Klink, and Sergeant Schultz from Hogan's Heroes triple face palming in Klink's office. The caption says" Triple facepalm: For when a double facepalm is just not enough to describe the epic fail..."

If anyone is wondering, we have a law called the Anti-Deficiency Act that makes what Jared is doing illegal.

Pirate Code GIFs | Tenor

From Reuters:

PARIS, Jan 6 (Reuters) – The United States for the first time on Tuesday backed a broad coalition of Ukraine’s allies in vowing to provide security guarantees that leaders said would include binding commitments to support the country if Russia attacks again.

The pledge came at a summit in Paris of the “coalition of the willing” of mainly European nations to firm up guarantees to reassure Kyiv in the event of a ceasefire with Russia, which invaded its neighbour in 2014 and again at full scale in 2022.

Unlike previous coalition meetings, the summit was also attended by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – President Donald Trump’s son-in-law – as well as America’s top general in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, who a day earlier fleshed out details of security guarantees with European army chiefs.
Witkoff, who has led talks with Russia, said after the summit that Trump “strongly stands behind security protocols”.
“Those security protocols are meant to … deter any attacks, any further attacks in Ukraine, and … if there are any attacks, they’re meant to defend, and they will do both. They are as strong as anyone has ever seen,” he said at a joint news conference with the French, German, British and Ukrainian leaders.
Kushner said that if Ukrainians were to make a final deal “they have to know that after a deal they are secure, they have, obviously, a robust deterrence, and there’s real backstops to make sure that this will not happen again.”

A statement by coalition leaders also said that allies will participate in a proposed U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism. Officials have said this would likely involve drones, sensors and satellites, not U.S. troops.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, writing on Telegram after the meeting, said the agreements were “a signal of how seriously Europe and the entire coalition of the willing are ready to work for real security”.

But he added that it remained to be determined how the monitoring would work and how the Ukrainian army would be supported and financed.

He thanked the United States “for its readiness to be a backstop in all areas – security guarantees, monitoring a ceasefire and rebuilding.” He said the Ukrainian delegation would continue its talks on key issues on Wednesday.

The statement was not explicitly endorsed by the United States and details of a U.S. role were watered down from an earlier draft, notably removing language that outlined the use of U.S. capabilities to support a multinational force in Ukraine.

But European officials hailed the involvement of the U.S. envoys and their strong comments as evidence Washington stood behind the security framework.

As with all of these leaks of what the US will do, might do, could do, etc, I’ll believe it when I see it.

One minor step left – get Putin to agree to it.

Hers the catch 22: the more Ukraine gets “promised”, the less are the chances that Russia will accept it.

Yes. Ukraine-France-UK signed a letter of intent for troops deployment when peace is agreed to – Budapest memorandum was also letter of intent.

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 6, 2026 at 2:20 PM

Witkoff, Kushner and Kushner Sr representing US – tells you all you need to know.

— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) January 6, 2026 at 2:22 PM

Because he was in France, President Zelenskyy did not give a daily address today. He did make a formal statement at the beginning of the joint press conference with the other heads of state plus Jared. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,411: Ukraine Has Finally Denied Flight to the Russians – Over Moscow!!!!

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The BLEH continues to recede, but I’m still just going to run through the basics.

The Ukrainians have closed the airspace over Moscow, thereby finally denying flight to the Russians.

✈️❗️The third day of the “blockade” of Moscow continues. Not a single plane in the sky. Airports are closed.

New Year’s holidays according to the schedule of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 2:07 PM

✈️❗️The third day of the “blockade” of Moscow continues. Not a single plane in the sky. Airports are closed.

New Year’s holidays according to the schedule of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 2:07 PM

Here are tonight’s outgoing Ukrainian fires:

HERE WE GO 😎🔥 DroneBomber

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 3:17 PM

🤩🤩🤩🤩 DroneBomber

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 6:03 PM

The Russians seems to have gotten Trump’s, Rubio’s, and Stephen Miller’s message loud and clear:

🇻🇪🇺🇸 Kremlin is ready not to interfere with the US from dominating Venezuela in exchange for US’s concessions on Ukraine, – Reuters

They believe that the US has shown: Latin America is their zone of influence. Kremlin took this as a signal that backroom agreements “sphere by sphere” are possible.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 1:58 PM

From Reuters: (emphasis mine)

MOSCOW, Jan 5 (Reuters) – Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s capture by the United States has deprived Vladimir Putin of an ally and could increase U.S. “oil clout”, but Moscow is eying potential gains from President Donald Trump’s division of the world into spheres of influence.

Some Russian nationalists have criticised the loss of an ally and contrasted the swift U.S. operation with Russia’s failure to take control of Ukraine in almost four years of war.

But on another level, what Russia casts as Trump’s “piracy” and “regime change” in the United States’ “backyard” is more tolerable for Moscow, especially if Washington becomes bogged down in Venezuela.

“Russia has lost an ally in Latin America,” said a senior Russian source, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

“But if this is an example of Trump’s Monroe Doctrine in action, as it seems to be, then Russia also has its own sphere of influence.”

The source was referring to the Trump administration’s desire to reassert U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and revive the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, which declared the area to be Washington’s zone of influence.

A second Russian source said Moscow saw the U.S. operation as a clear attempt to gain control of Venezuela’s oil wealth and observed that most Western powers had not openly criticised it.

Putin has been trying to stake out a Russian sphere of influence in former Soviet republics in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Ukraine in a push opposed by Washington since the Cold War ended.

Putin has not commented publicly on the U.S. operation in Venezuela although Russia’s foreign ministry has urged Trump to release Maduro and called for dialogue. The ministry previously cast Trump’s actions as modern-day piracy in the Caribbean.

Russian state media have depicted the operation as a U.S. “kidnapping”, reported remarks by Trump on the U.S. having “sick” neighbours and referred to the U.S. capture of military leader Manuel Noriega in Panama on January 3, 1990.

“That Trump just ‘stole’ the president of another country shows that there is basically no international law – there is only the law of force – but Russia has known that for a long time,” Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, told Reuters.

He said the modern-day Monroe Doctrine – which Trump suggested could be updated as the “Donroe Doctrine” – could be interpreted in different ways.

“Is the United States really ready to recognise Russia’s dominance over the former Soviet Union, or is it simply that the United States is so strong that it will not tolerate any great powers even close to it?”

Alexei Pushkov, who chairs the commission on information policy in Russia’s Federation Council, or senate, saw the U.S. operation in Venezuela as a direct implementation of the U.S. National Security Strategy, depicting it as an attempt to revive U.S. supremacy and gain sway over more oil reserves.

But he said it risked a return to “the wild imperialism of the 19th century and, in fact, reviving the concept of the Wild West – the Wild West in the sense that the United States has regained the right to do what they want in the Western Hemisphere.”

“Will the triumph turn into a disaster?” he asked.

More at the link.

“No one will stand up for Putin – that’s why the Kremlin is afraid.”

Elvira Barry on the swift, sharp kick in the balls that the US attack on Venezuela gave the world order. And with Russia now subordinate to China, who’s next for a kicking?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apbo…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 5, 2026 at 3:59 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,410: And Now We Know Where the Venezuela Idea Came From

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I’ve managed to catch up on most of my sleep and the BLEH continues to recede, but I’m going to keep tonight to the basics as well.

About 2/3rds of Ukraine is under air raid alert for drone swarms.

Ukraine has been under Russian attack for several hours🚨‼️

Another explosion just shook Kharkiv. Explosions reported in Kyiv. Multiple explosions have also been reported in Chernihiv, where the city is experiencing power outages.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 4, 2026 at 8:16 PM

Another night.
Another massive missile attack prepared by russia.
Shaheds are already flying.
Planes are about to take off.
We stay together in this darkness.
Please, let us all survive this night.

— Angelica Shalagina🇺🇦 (@angel-shalagina.bsky.social) January 4, 2026 at 4:30 PM

Here’s tonight’s outgoing Ukrainian fires:

An updated map shows current routes of Ukrainian strike UAVs. Russian sources claim around 180 drones are in the air, but both the number and the routes are highly approximate, the DroneBomber channel notes.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 4, 2026 at 11:41 AM

Just as we now know that the idea for Trump to scarf up Greenland came from Russia’s GRU, which ran a very successful influence operation on the overly credulous ignoramus doing business as Senator Tom Cotton, we have been reminded that Putin first proposed that he would gift Venezuela to Trump if Trump would give him Ukraine. we know this from Fiona Hill’s October 2019 testimony to Congress.

During Fiona Hill’s testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.

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— Ambassador Ken Fairfax (ret) (@portlandken.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 9:36 PM

I want to thank YY_Sima Qian for bringing the most recent Blackbird Group assessment to everyone’s attention last night in the comments.

2025 can reasonably be seen as an operational and strategic failure for Russia, but all scenarios remain on the table. Any optimism is premature, as Ukraine also faces serious challenges. In this thread: An assessment of the past year and its broader implications. 1/

First, some numbers. Russia took under 4,600 km² of Ukrainian territory in 2025, compared to roughly 3,500 km² in 2024. Despite the increase, focusing only on square kilometers provides poor tools for analyzing current dynamics and the war’s future. 2/

Russia failed to achieve operational goals. The front advanced relatively evenly despite local salients. Most captured territory consisted of fields, villages and small towns. Even when brief momentum appeared, Russian forces were unable to turn it into a larger breakthrough. 3/

Although Huliaipole and most of Pokrovsk & Myrnohrad fell in late 2025, the overall situation did not change significantly. The war remains attritional, and despite tactical adaptations, the slow, grinding pace continues without a decisive shift in sight in the coming months. 4/

The growing phenomenon of de-mechanization and extended kill zones – driven by a increasing numbers of drones, drone units, and technical & tactical developments – has now effectively eliminated the possibility of conventional, operational-level mechanized breakthroughs. 5/

Amidst of these challenges, Russia has failed to find the means to decisively weaken or break Ukraine militarily. Ukraine is still able to negotiate without immediate coercion that would undermine its sovereignty, which in turn is one of Russia’s central objectives. 6/

Despite averting major crises, Ukraine faces internal and external problems that are damaging, or could further damage, its war effort. Manpower issues remain unresolved, and a sharp rise in desertions in 2025 has worsened an existing challenge. 7/

Ukraine conducted counterattacks and halted Russian offensives in several sectors, but even its most successful operations were largely local. It’s difficult to see how Ukraine could achieve success beyond the tactical level in 2026, but local operations will continue. 8/

From another point of view, Ukraine’s actions produced a relatively successful overall defence that denied the enemy many of its objectives. Tactical successes mattered: Ukraine held against a stronger opponent while losing less than 1% of its total territory. 9/

Unfortunately, the loose coalition supporting Ukraine is showing cracks. US policy has been tentative and Europe’s aid limits have been tested, as seen in difficult negotiations over financial assistance. EU reached an agreement this time, but the next may be harder. 10/

Europe would need to increase economic and military support for Ukraine to even preserve its current position militarily and politically. However, as 2026 progresses, I’m afraid major changes won’t occur, which narrows Ukraine’s options and strengthens Russia’s leverage. 11/

Russia seeks a more favorable European security architecture for itself and is prepared to sacrifice vast resources to achieve it. Ukraine’s ability to pursue an independent foreign and security policy is fundamentally incompatible with this goal. 12/

It is naive to think Russia’s ambitions stop at Donbas’ administrative borders. If Ukraine preserves full sovereignty while losing only land, Russia will have won a territorial victory, but will have failed strategically. Russia won’t accept such an outcome easily. 13/

Russia’s desired victory requires Ukraine’s subjugation: heavy influence over society, no NATO path, no Western security guarantees, and limits on defensive capabilities. Achieving this demands prolonged military and diplomatic pressure, so a quick resolution is unlikely. 14/

From Moscow’s perspective, better outcomes remain within reach. Ukraine’s negotiating position is likely going to worsen as the war drags on. Russian society will of course continue to deteriorate as costs mount, but Russia isn’t fighting for optimal quarterly GDP figures. 15/

Multiple scenarios remain possible, making definitive predictions difficult. Still, this is a year in which all parties will seek some kind of a resolution. Someone will lose more than others. I hope it won’t be those fighting for freedom and democracy. 16/16

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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