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You are here: Home / Archives for War in Ukraine

War for Ukraine Day 463: President Zelenskyy Visits Moldova

by Adam L Silverman|  June 1, 20239:21 pm| 28 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, Vietnam, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia opened up on Kyiv for the 18th time in the past 30 days again overnight. And killed two Ukrainian children in the small hours before the dawn on International Children’s Day.

Last night, the russians attacked Kyiv with 7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles.
All missiles were shot down.
Unfortunately, fragments of the destroyed missiles hit an apartment building and a pediatric hospital.
3 civilians, including a child, were…

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 1, 2023

Here’s the full text of the MOD’s tweet:

Last night, the russians attacked Kyiv with 7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles. All missiles were shot down. Unfortunately, fragments of the destroyed missiles hit an apartment building and a pediatric hospital. 3 civilians, including a child, were killed, and 10 were injured.

Grandfather sits over the body of his dead 9-year-old granddaughter.

The girl ran with her mother to a shelter in Kyiv. It was at night, a few minutes after the beginning of the air alarm in the capital.

On June 1, the world celebrates Children's Day.

Photo Getty Images pic.twitter.com/Pd8vZ6ix7N

— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) June 1, 2023

This infographic below represents all the Russian missile, air force and UAV attacks on #Ukraine in May 2023 alone. #Russia is engaging in outright terror of Ukrainian civilians: pic.twitter.com/kKgZxPl5Zo

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) June 1, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

The duty of local authorities is to ensure the availability and accessibility of shelters around the clock – address by the President of Ukraine

1 June 2023 – 21:38

Dear Ukrainians!

This long and hard day is coming to an end.

First of all, my condolences to the families and friends of those whose lives were taken by Russia, taken by Russian strikes.

We are doing our best to protect people. There was no such international meeting, no such international negotiations where the issue of air defense for Ukraine was not raised.

But protecting people means protecting them at all levels. Shelters must be accessible. The situation like last night in Kyiv, when people came to the shelter and the shelter was closed, should never happen again. It is the duty of local authorities, a very specific duty, to ensure that shelters are available and accessible around the clock. It is painful to see the negligence of this duty. It is painful to see casualties. And if the duty is not fulfilled on the ground, it is the direct responsibility of law enforcement bodies to bring to justice.

Today, our country, like many other countries, marks Children’s Day. But even on this day, the terrorist state took the life of a Ukrainian child. But even on this day, Russia shelled our cities – from Kharkiv to Kherson, from Kyiv to Donbas. But we used this day to the maximum to bring the terrorists’ defeat closer. And this day has become a time when we are bringing Russia’s accountability – accountability of every murderer, every terrorist – closer.

This morning, our Ukrainian delegation was in Moldova for the Summit of the European Political Community. This is the center of political discussions on our continent now. We had very important negotiations. The President of Moldova and the President of France, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the President of the European Commission, the President of Romania and the Prime Minister of Portugal, the Prime Minister of Albania and the Prime Minister of North Macedonia, the Prime Minister of Italy, the Prime Minister of Spain, the President of Switzerland, the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, the President of Azerbaijan, the Chancellor of Germany.

There was also an expanded format with representatives from the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, UK, Poland and Belgium. And, of course, there were meetings on the sidelines of the Summit and a joint meeting of all the participants…

We are preparing new defense decisions for Ukraine, including air defense, aviation, and our advance on the ground. We are preparing real political content for the NATO Summit in Vilnius. We are preparing a package of security guarantees for our country on its way to the Alliance. We are doing everything to bring the EU’s political decision on membership for Ukraine closer. We are preparing a Peace Summit based on the Ukrainian Peace Formula.

And I thank all the leaders, all the countries that support us on these points. This is not only support for Ukraine, it is support for real security for the whole of Europe.

I would like to thank Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, for supporting our initiatives to protect our children, to find and return those young Ukrainians who were deported to Russia. We have to return them all, we have to do everything possible and impossible to protect all our people – to the maximum extent possible – from any Russian threats. I am confident that this is possible.

I would like to thank President Michel, President of the European Council, who today held a special security session at the summit.

I would also like to thank Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, for the decision on ammunition for Ukraine – for supporting the allocation of additional 500 million euros for this purpose. Thank you!

Thank you to all our warriors! Thank you to everyone who trains our warriors! Who helps us with weapons! Who provides treatment for our heroes after their injuries! I thank all the rescuers, all our employees of the State Emergency Service and other services who are eliminating the consequences of Russian strikes! Thank you to all the volunteers who help our warriors, our people, our country!

I thank everyone with whom we are walking side by side towards our victory, towards our peace and towards punishment for Russian terrorists.

Glory to Ukraine!

President @ZelenskyyUa is reading the diary of a child from Mariupol.
Perhaps there are no better words to describe russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine.
If they manage to survive, their next stop will be their trial at #tribunal4russia#ChildrensDay pic.twitter.com/KEFhZr1JUl

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 1, 2023

Today, and every time we prepare and make decisions for the sake of our Europe, for the sake of our values, we must remember that every doubt we show here in Europe is a trench that 🇷🇺 will definitely try to occupy. I said this at the second meeting of the European Political… pic.twitter.com/cV87yWKBUn

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 1, 2023

Here’s the full text of the tweet:

Today, and every time we prepare and make decisions for the sake of our Europe, for the sake of our values, we must remember that every doubt we show here in Europe is a trench that 🇷🇺 will definitely try to occupy. I said this at the second meeting of the European Political Community, which is taking place today in Moldova.

Since February 24 last year, the limits of security in Europe have in fact been the limits of our determination, our ability to act together for the sake of the interests of our peoples and the whole Europe. As much as we can reject doubts, we can reject the evil of aggression.

This year – is for decisions. In summer – in Vilnius, at the @NATO summit – the clear invitation to membership for 🇺🇦 is needed, and the security guarantees on the way to NATO membership are needed. In fall, on our accession to the 🇪🇺 – clear positive decision is needed. And we are also preparing the Peace Summit, which will guide the world majority to implement the joint #PeaceFormula, and it is a global need. The time has come, and the doubts must vanish. We openly say that only a strong air defense, namely the coalition of “Patriots”, namely the coalition of modern fighter jets can defeat 🇷🇺 terror.

We are offering appropriate decisions and promoting appropriate decisions.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Bakhmut:

The New York Times gives us the butcher’s bill for the Caterer’s activities in Bakhmut.

At least 20,000 Russians have been killed and another 40,000 wounded just in the yearlong grinding battle for the small eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, a senior Western official said on Thursday in a new estimate of casualties.

Overall, Western officials now estimate that the total of Russian casualties, including dead and wounded, is well over 200,000 since the beginning of the war in February 2022, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

The figures track very well with those provided publicly late last month by the head of the Wagner Group, which claims to have done all the fighting for Bakhmut and took credit for finally seizing it.

The Wagner head, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said that Wagner alone had 20,000 dead in Bakhmut — 10,000 of them prisoners who joined the fighting to get pardons, and 10,000 more regular Wagner recruits.

Mr. Prigozhin, who has been sharply critical of Russia’s defense ministers and top generals, also claimed that Ukraine had lost at least 50,000 in Bakhmut. He said the whole purpose of the battle was to exhaust the Ukrainian forces and give some breathing space to the Russian military. The Western official, following normal practice, declined to comment on Ukrainian casualties.

The role of Mr. Prigozhin now is puzzling, the official said. The mercenary leader has said his fighters need a month of rest and have been withdrawing from Bakhmut, replaced in defensive positions by regular Russian military units, including Russian airborne forces, a move that is likely to be resented by its officers as a misuse of elite troops, the Western official said.The official also said it was unclear whether the Wagner Group is still being given tasks by Russian commanders, as it used to be, or whether Mr. Prigozhin, who has close ties to President Vladimir V. Putin, now has more autonomy.

Ukrainska Pravda reports Colonel General Syrskyi’s recent statements regarding Bakhmut.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, has stated that Russia changed the operation format on the Bakhmut front, so there is a temporary lull.

Source: Syrskyi in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda

Quote: “The situation on the Bakhmut front has changed. There is a significant decline in any active hostile actions with an increase in the number of attacks from heavy weapons, mainly artillery and mortars.

At first glance, it seems the enemy has given up on further offensive actions in this area, but this image is not true.

The format of the operation has temporarily changed, with the withdrawal of Wagner units and their replacement by the [regular] army and air assault units. Therefore, the current situation may appear to be calm. However, unfortunately, it is only a temporary lull.”

Details: Syrskyi stressed that Russia seeks to seize the initiative to prevent Ukrainian counterattacks and go on the offensive.

In addition, he said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces suspended their advance on the flanks on the Bakhmut front over the past few days.

So Wagner trotted out the original Dmitry Utkin today after Prigozhin got into it with the Chechens on social media.

Daudov said Prigozhin's daily statements are creating panic in Russia and tells Prigozhin not to forget where he got his PMC, planes, helicopters, MLRS. Utkin responded by saying Wagner didn't receive MLRS, helicopters, and planes from him. 2/https://t.co/HvFQ6igopM

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 1, 2023

Chechen warlord Adam Delimkhanov responds to Wagner leader Prigozhin questioning the performance of the Akhmat unit, asks him to shut up about the lack of ammunition, and offers a face-to-face meeting to solve any questions. pic.twitter.com/77imLOHXzF

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 1, 2023

Extraordinarily, responding to two video messages posted today by Chechen leaders in which they accused Prigozhin of various sins is no other than Dmitry "Wagner" Utkin, founder and commander of the PMC, who previously extremely rarely appeared in public.

The message, a text… pic.twitter.com/phekyftH2Q

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 1, 2023

Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet followed by the screen grabs of the English translation of the Telegram post and the recent picture of the original Utkin.

Extraordinarily, responding to two video messages posted today by Chechen leaders in which they accused Prigozhin of various sins is no other than Dmitry “Wagner” Utkin, founder and commander of the PMC, who previously extremely rarely appeared in public.

The message, a text note for now, was posted on the large GREY ZONE Telegram channel, which became known since the start of the full-scale invasion for posts criticising negative elements of the Russian army, but the channel admin’s identity remained anonymous.

A photo is attached to the post, apparently showing Utkin exiting a helicopter at an unknown landing area, signed with “GREY ZONE” “Wagner”.

The note itself lists responses to a number of claims and accusations made by the Chechens loyal to Putin. Utkin reminded his counterparts of knowing each other since the times of the 1st and 2nd Chechen wars and his readiness to “talk”. The mention of two wars in this case is hardly too accidental since during the first war the men were on opposite sides of the front.

But the appearance of Utkin on stage is likely to continue as it serves the purpose of supporting Prigozhin and carving out more influence in the internal conflict between rapidly emerging factions within the Russian public space.

And here’s the screen grabs:

I’m honestly a bit amazed. I had pretty much concluded, despite the RUMINT that the original Utkin is and has been operating in Syria, that he’d either been retired to a dacha somewhere nice(ish) or that he was dad. That they broke radio silence and trotted him out, or have issued a statement in his name and accompanied it with what is supposed to be a somewhat recent picture is significant.

Kursk, Russia:

In Kursk, explosions are reported. Activity of air defense also reported. As said at least 5 explosions in total. pic.twitter.com/209DajSlHZ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 1, 2023

Belgorod, Russia:

The Legion of Freedom of Russia, not to be confused with the Russian Volunteer Force (which is led by a white supremacist), staged another attack or raid, if you prefer, in Belgorod. As did the Russian Volunteer Force:

The Legion of Freedom of Russia claims the destruction of a Russian KAMAZ truck with ammunition, as well as a 2S4 Tyulpan 240 mm self-propelled heavy mortar.https://t.co/8pnWhPexIU pic.twitter.com/Nleu0UlJQK

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 1, 2023

/3. Mortar and KAMAZ with ammunition were destroyed on the Bilgorod region territory. (50.3682310, 36.9040000) https://t.co/O5bCtNs8bf pic.twitter.com/ArNvI95fs9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 1, 2023

/2. Looks like the same position as the one where Tyulpan mortar was destroyed 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/xV3DimN0vo

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 1, 2023

A police building is on fire in Shebekino. pic.twitter.com/7OyDVSEv1v

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 1, 2023

On the border of the Bilhorod region, in the area of ​​Novaya Tavolzhanka, a battle continues, Russian media report pic.twitter.com/zjSANno6Dx

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 1, 2023

Reported as the administrative building of the Shebekino district, Bilhorod region. Employees are burning documents as they expect volunteers to enter. pic.twitter.com/bGsBD9tKvv

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 1, 2023

Smoke rises over Shebekino and the surrounding areas in the region. Russian media report heavy shelling. pic.twitter.com/EpJhEYW8ev

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 1, 2023

Russian army reinforcements are arriving in Shebekino, Russian media report. pic.twitter.com/OLCUFeRRNa

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 1, 2023

The Pentagon has signed a contract with SpaceX for Starlink terminals and service for the Ukrainians. The Financial Times has the details.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has secured US funding to provide satellite internet to the Ukrainian military, as its founder abandoned his stated doubts over how his company’s terminals were being deployed in a major conflict.

The Department of Defense has agreed to buy Starlink terminals from Musk but has not disclosed the quantities it will purchase, or how much it is paying for the service.

Musk had earlier complained SpaceX was making too little money from the various contracts that have seen at least 20,000 terminals being used for a mix of civilian, humanitarian and military purposes.

While the total number of terminals is unknown, hundreds are destroyed each month in the fighting and need replacing. SpaceX is expected to be paid out of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which has financed the procurement of weapons and training to modernise the Ukrainian military as it battles the Russian army.

“Satellite communications constitute a vital layer in Ukraine’s overall communications network and the department contracts with Starlink for services of this type,” the Pentagon said in a statement on Thursday.

Musk enabled access to SpaceX’s low-orbit satellites within Ukraine in late February 2022 in response to a public plea by a Ukrainian minister. But he has since expressed reticence about the cost and complexity of continuing service.

Since the war began, an mix of terminals has flowed into the country, including some donated by SpaceX, purchased by Ukraine’s allies, such as Poland and the UK, and others crowdfunded by supporters. People familiar with those contracts said the pricing depended on various factors, including whether the terminals were intended for civilian or military use.

More at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Army Cats and Dogs Twitter feed.

☺️#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/Vc1ejAiFZ6

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 26, 2023

Cats squad.#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/f0jzhip857

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 26, 2023

☺️#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/c4CWyWPLrd

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 26, 2023

Hi bro#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/r0KLlwkOzD

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 25, 2023

Kiss#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/XzRgt3tpaM

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 25, 2023

General #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/uobeWWSUwl

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) May 23, 2023

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 463: President Zelenskyy Visits MoldovaPost + Comments (28)

War for Ukraine Day 462: The War for Ukraine Finally Begins to Come Home a Bit for the Russians

by Adam L Silverman|  May 31, 20237:20 pm| 65 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

If you’re going to spend hours arguing about average incomes in Russia, just do us all a favor and click through to ROSSTAT, which is the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia. Make sure you use a VPN and a secure browser. Here’s the link to the English language site. If you scroll down under Indicators you’ll see the “Average monthly accrued wage of employees for the Russian Federation, October 2021” is 54649 roubles.  You can also just scroll down this page and download the XLSX files if you want to have the data for whatever. Though if you do, please note the average real income is presented as a percentage of the previous year. Which is why for 2021 all of Russia is listed as 103.1. As in the 2021 average real income was 103.1% of 2020’s. I don’t cook Russia’s books, I just tell you about it. Enjoy!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

The world is aware of a fundamental role of our maritime grain exports for food security – address by the President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

31 May 2023 – 22:53

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I am on a working trip to our Odesa.

Here I thanked our warriors for defending the region and the whole of Ukraine. In particular, I visited a hospital and our wounded defenders. I wished them a speedy recovery. I was honored to present state awards. I thanked our doctors.

I held a special and lengthy meeting in Odesa on the security and social situation in the region. The regional leadership, military, law enforcers.

The region is a priority from all points of view. It is Odesa region that is one of the pillars of security for our entire south, and therefore for the state.

The Security Service of Ukraine has achieved very important results in Odesa region in countering Russian saboteurs.

General Moskalov delivered a report on the situation in the areas of responsibility of the Odesa operational and strategic groups of troops. We analyzed in detail how to strengthen the defense.

We also discussed economic issues, jobs, and social security in detail.

I also held an offsite meeting of the Staff. Constant attention to the front. Reports from the commanders of Khortytsia, Tavria, and the Commander-in-Chief. Special reports from the heads of the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Security Service. Details will follow later. Special attention is paid to our grain corridor and security in the Black Sea.

The world knows the fundamental role of our maritime grain exports for food security. In general, security in the Black Sea, the effectiveness of international law on navigation is a globally important security factor. All the maritime countries of the world see now what could threaten their ports and their water areas if Russia gets away with blocking navigation in the Black Sea.

Let me give you just one example. Currently, out of the 3 ports that have been agreed upon as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the Pivdennyi port is actually blocked. More than 1.5 million tons of agricultural products have been accumulated in Pivdennyi alone. And this grain is expected by at least ten countries, including Türkiye, Egypt, Bangladesh and China. Obviously, the less food is supplied to these countries, to these regions, the higher the food prices are, the more people in these countries lose from their family budgets.

That is, the blockade of one port in Ukraine creates extremely severe risks for different nations. In particular, for those countries relations with which Russia is also trying to speculate on.

I thank everyone in the world who helps us increase the security space in the Black Sea, who puts pressure on Russia to unblock food supplies.

Today in Odesa, I also held a meeting on the development of our port infrastructure.

And one more thing.

We are working to make the second half of this week meaningful for our relations with partners. Our international team is doing everything to ensure that this week ends with the news Ukraine needs.

And now I thank the United States of America, President Biden personally, both parties of Congress and every American – everyone who values freedom – for a new defense package for our warriors. Missiles for Patriots, rockets for HIMARS, artillery and other strongly needed weapons. Needed right now!

Glory to all our warriors who are now in combat for the sake of Ukraine, who are at combat posts, on combat missions. I thank everyone who works for our country!

Thank you, Odesa, for this day!    

Glory to Ukraine!

The war for Ukraine is finally coming home for the Russians. The Financial Times published a deep dive today. Here’s an excerpt:

Elena Yurgeneva awoke at home on Tuesday in Rublyovka, a gated community for Moscow’s elite, to a loud bang from a drone attack, shaking walls, and a big shift in client demand.

“A lot of people seem anxious and are asking about properties with a bunker or at least a basement,” said Yurgeneva, an estate agent who specialises in luxury property.

It is a sign of the times for Muscovites that one of the houses on Yurgeneva’s books has a 200 square metre ferroconcrete bunker, allowing its owners “to get through any unforeseen events safely and even quite comfortably”.

Tuesday’s drone strikes, among the largest in Moscow since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, have underlined how vulnerable the country has become to blowback from the war.

More than a year since the assault began, Russia is further away from a battlefield victory than ever and making plans to beef up Moscow’s air defences instead of triumphantly taking Kyiv as President Vladimir Putin had planned.

The mounting attacks deep inside Russian territory pale in comparison to Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities. But they have spooked even Moscow’s beau monde hitherto insulated from most of the war’s consequences, despite the prominent recruitment posters on Rublyovka.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said a defensive Kremlin had been forced to “act like this is routine”. “The goal is not to inflame the situation,” she said. “Nobody in the Kremlin wants the people to wake up.”

In Moscow, most locals continued to go about their business in the hours after Tuesday’s attack. “We haven’t heard anything, and the city appears unchanged today: restaurant terraces are open, and people are enjoying Aperol Spritz,” said one resident who lives three kilometres from a building on Leninsky Prospekt in southern Moscow where one of the drones crashed.

But Ukraine’s apparently growing capacity to strike deep within Russia has rattled nerves.

Last week, 52 per cent of respondents to a survey by Kremlin-friendly pollster FOM said their friends and family were “anxious” rather than “calm” — the highest result in January and the first shift since Russia wound down a mobilisation drive at the end of last year.

Tuesday’s attacks were the latest in a series of drone strikes, cross-border raids, and sabotage behind enemy lines that have increased in recent weeks ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the attacks. But they appear targeted at sapping Russian morale and redirecting resources away from the frontline — moves that help Ukraine roll back Russia’s advances.

Much more at the link!

Here’s some analysis by the Center for New American Security’s (CNAS) Samuel Bendett on the same topic. First tweet from the actual thread with the remainder from the Thread Reader App.

1/ As the Russian government and its president try to downplay the significance of this drone attack on Moscow, a new realty is emerging where the drone mission success is measured by its ability to actually strike intended targets while the constant appearance of such UAVs over… https://t.co/G1w9rflG50

— Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) May 31, 2023

2/ In other words, the Russian government and many Telegram-based commentators are discussing adversarial drone presence overhead as something to be expected, without resorting to panic, and to worry only if such drone attacks cause significant – not minor – damage.
3/ That’s not to say that there isn’t a concern – there is a lot of concern, but also a nearly fatalistic recognition that Ukrainian drone presence over Russia can become so commonplace as to cause concern only in specific cases where they cause significant destruction.
4/ The May 30 attack is spurring a lot of debate about Russia’s air defense, EW and CUAS abilities in general, and around Moscow in particular. Many Telegram-based commentators are pointing out their “I told you so” arguments that Ukraine will start retaliating with UAVs starting… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
5/ This “acceptance” is a product of Ukraine’s sustained drone counter-attacks against Russia’s numerous targets. Some commentators are saying Russia is not ready psychologically, hinting that at some point the country must accept this new reality.
6/ What’s to be expected? A lot of public activity, followed by an attempt to invest heavily in domestic CUAS technologies, and to purchase even more of those already on the market. In this case, Rostec emerges as one of the beneficiaries of this regality, given its CUAS/EW… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
7/ This may be matched by heavier legislative measures aimed at controlling drone activity in the country, while making exceptions for some drone manufacturers/testers over others. Again, some clear winners may be those companies closer to the Kremlin (i.e. Rostec).

8/ The Russian government is currently pledging support for the domestic drone industry, aiming to build it into a powerful economic force. This is certainly an area to watch if drone attacks become more common across Russia the longer Moscow is staying in Ukraine.

Those who criticize UAV attacks in Moscow often fail to grasp one point. Russian elites are willing to sacrifice millions of voiceless and voteless NPCs to preserve their lifestyle. The more war comes knocking on their doorstep, the more they'll start reconsidering their choices

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 31, 2023

The Economist published an analysis of the effects of the war on Russians by RAND’s Dara Massicot. Unfortunately it is paywalled. So here’s the tweet thread version. First tweet from her thread with the rest from the Thread Reader App.

The Russian military's problems go beyond casualties and equipment losses. It faces two looming crises in retention and veteran PTSD and other disorders, when its soldiers are allowed to leave Ukraine. I explore this topic in my piece for @TheEconomist, linked in tweet below. /1 pic.twitter.com/K36UTsyG55

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) May 31, 2023

In my newest piece for @TheEconomist I explore the Russian military’s looming twin crises of retention and veteran mental health problems. 2/

Dara Massicot believes that Russia faces twin personnel crises in its armed forcesIt will struggle to hold on to fighters and to treat traumatised veterans, says the American defence analysthttps://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/05/31/dara-massicot-believes-that-russia-faces-twin-personnel-crises-in-its-armed-forces
Russia’s wartime personnel policies mask the war’s impact on retention. Since September, *all* Russian forces (except PMCs, perhaps Rosgvardia) in Ukraine are serving in a compulsory status once mobilization began, according to decree. /3 

..Officers, professional enlisted, and mobilized have had their contracts extended indefinitely until presidential decree ends mobilization. /4

Full text of Putin’s mobilization decree — translatedThe text is open-ended, not specifying an end date for the mobilization, or the number of reservists to be called up.https://www.politico.eu/article/text-vladimir-putin-mobilization-decree-war-ukraine-russia/

Currently, the only ways out of military service (apart from being killed in combat) are reaching mandatory retirement age, receiving a medical discharge, or imprisonment. Or refusals and desertions, which are also on the rise. /5

When soldiers say no. Hundreds of Russian servicemen face trial in defiance of Ukraine deployment, Mediazona study revealsRussian military courts have processed over 700 criminal cases against servicemen since the beginning of mobilisation in…https://en.zona.media/article/2023/04/11/500
Soldiers are not rotated out regularly and do not always receive proper rest. They face prolonged exposure to combat stress and intensifying feelings of helplessness and anger at their situation. Anecdotes from the front suggest some want to resign when restrictions are lifted./6 
Not all soldiers will want to leave the military when they are able, of course. Some may want to remain in service. Some may need to stay due to the money or housing benefits for themselves and their dependents. /7 
Then there is the matter of PTSD. Just as there was “Afghan syndrome” and “Chechen Syndrome” to describe veterans with severe PTSD who struggled to adapt to civilian life, it is a matter of time before “Ukraine syndrome” emerges in Russia. Most soldiers are not home yet. /8 
Even now, Russia’s medical system is straining to care for those with physical and mental wounds. Russia doesn’t have enough veteran psychiatric care facilities. Some are discharged without care for severe PTSD or sent to other facilities with inadequate staffing or care. /9 

Like this facility, not designed to receive combat trauma, with little ability to care for physical or mental combat wounds. Some mothers come to care for their sons. Other soldiers buy alcohol off site and drink alone to sleep or numb themselves. /10

‘He survived war but not rehabilitation’ An employee at a rehab center describes caring for Russian soldiers returning from the front — MeduzaOriginal story by Anna Ryzhkova for Verstka. English-language version by Emily Laskin.https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/03/18/he-survived-war-but-not-rehabilitation
The 2020s are different from the 1990s, so veteran care may not be as shabby as before. The Russian government can spend more on veterans, Russian society is more stable than in the 1990s, and there is institutional knowledge about PTSD (a term they now use in Russia). /11 
Some Russian medical professionals estimate 20-25% of returning veterans will have PTSD, and 100,000 will need professional help. While soldiers are deployed the Kremlin set up a “Defenders of the Fatherland Fund” to create regional centers for veteran care. It’s very new /12 
But there are problems: the scale of the problem is different (97% of Ground Forces/Airborne units) are in Ukraine which makes it different from Afghanistan and Chechnya. Secondly, the environment in Russia criminalizes anything seen as “discrediting” the military. /13 
When veterans of Afghanistan and Chechnya returned home, those with severe and untreated PTSD struggled with employment, family life, were more prone to criminal activity, and had health issues. The Russian population avoided them, making their isolation worse. /13 
I lived in Russia during the second campaign in Chechnya. I saw a soldier of that war standing on the street once. He was a few years older than me, but I’ll never forgot how old his eyes looked. No Russians looked at him…. /14 washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…
… yet, not long before that, I had seen an entire bus leap up at one time to help a WWII veteran stand. What I understood was that pride was only for some wars and some veterans, and shame was for others. /15 
Currently, Russia is grafting the iconography of WWII onto soldiers of this war, calling them ‘liberators’ , curating an image of these personnel as defenders. In some ways, this might differentiate veterans experiences when they return home from ‘Afghantsy’ or Chechnya vets/16 

I want to note that, Ukraine is also facing severe challenges with PTSD, not only in its armed forces but their civilian population too. They were invaded, and they urgently need support. /17

‘I Live in Hell’: The Psychic Wounds of Ukraine’s SoldiersInside a psychiatric hospital in Kyiv, the growing mental trauma of the war is written on every soldier’s face.https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/14/magazine/ukraine-soldiers-psychiatric-hospital.html
Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the way they mistreat their own personnel, will likely cause lasting problems with military retention and a ticking time bomb of veteran mental health disorders. For now these issues loom on the horizon (no one can resign), but the fuse is lit. /end 
Many thanks to @TheEconomist for asking me to write. 

dsfafa

From Russian TV, more on the struggle to define what victory actually means. https://t.co/H8NUwRA1Uq

— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) May 31, 2023

 

There seems to be movement in France regarding the future of Ukraine:

If…Macron were to take the lead on the question of 🇺🇦's membership of NATO, he would not only transform his reputation in Central and Eastern Europe but also strengthen his case for European defence more credibly framed as a pillar of NATO

— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) May 31, 2023

Here’s more from The Guardian:

He said that in the meantime evidence against Russia and its leaders should be assembled.

Pressing his case for greater European defence spending and coordination, he said “our security and stability should not be delegated and left at the discretion of US voters”.

Referring back to his claim three years ago that Nato was in the throes of “brain death”, he said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine had been a wake-up call to which Nato had responded well. But he pointed out that some Nato members – without directly mentioning Turkey – were not imposing sanctions on Russia.

He acknowledged that in the past western Europe had not been sensitive to the requests of the east. “Some said you had missed an opportunity to stay quiet. I think we also lost an opportunity to listen to you. This time is over,” Macron said, to applause in the audience.

He was alluding to a remark in 2003 by former French president Jacques Chirac, who said eastern European nations which sided with the US and Britain in their decision to invade Iraq that year, opposed by some major western allies including France and Germany, had missed a “good opportunity to stay quiet”.

Referring to the division of Europe enforced in the east in the wake of the second world war, Macron said Europe must not allow eastern Europe to be kidnapped by Russia a second time, adding that the enforced estrangement had weakened the whole European family.

Macron predicted that the coming Nato summit in Vilnius in July would not be able to reach a consensus on Ukraine’s future membership of Nato, but said “we need to build something between security guarantees provided to Israel and full-fledged Nato membership. We need something tangible, clear and concrete. We need a path to membership”.

He added that Ukraine must be given sufficient means to stop further aggression and “we must be able to guarantee they are tangible and sustainable”, because it was protecting Europe.

Each country, he said, should have a right to pick its allies. Russia’s invasion had been a geopolitical failure that had aggravated mistrust all its neighbours. “There is no space in Europe any more for imperialistic delirium,” he said.

But he also made an appeal to central and eastern European countries not to see greater European defence cooperation, spending and partnerships as a way of reducing Nato’s influence, insisting a strong European pillar in Nato was of benefit to everyone.

The Biden administration has announced another tranche of security assistance to Ukraine:

IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
May 31, 2023

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s thirty-ninth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. It includes key capabilities to support Ukraine’s air defenders as they bravely protect Ukraine’s soldiers, civilians, and critical infrastructure amid Russia’s continuing air strikes killing civilians across Ukraine. This security assistance package also contains artillery, anti-armor capabilities, and ammunition, including tens of millions of rounds of small arms ammunition, valued at up to $300 million to help Ukraine continue to defend its sovereign territory.

The capabilities in this package include:

•            Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;

•            AIM-7 missiles for air defense;

•            Avenger air defense systems;

•            Stinger anti-aircraft systems;

•            Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);

•            155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;

•            105mm tank ammunition;

•            Precision aerial munitions;

•            Zuni aircraft rockets;

•            Munitions for Unmanned Aerial Systems;

•            AT-4 anti-armor systems;

•            Over 30 million rounds of small arms ammunition;

•            Mine clearing equipment and systems;

•            Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing;

•            Night vision devices;

•            Spare parts, generators, and other field equipment.

The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

At night, drones attacked the Afipsky Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar Territory. The attack took place around 4-3 am, after which a strong fire started at the site. One of the fuel oil distillation units caught fire. pic.twitter.com/EueQJRGUK2

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 31, 2023

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War for Ukraine Day 462: The War for Ukraine Finally Begins to Come Home a Bit for the RussiansPost + Comments (65)

War for Ukraine Day 461: Everyone Could See This Coming – Tara Reade Has Moved To Moscow & Is Seeking Russian Citizenship

by Adam L Silverman|  May 30, 20236:20 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The Russians once again, or, perhaps, continue to open up at Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine as night gives way to day.

Every Ukrainian's rage is directed at every terrorist.
Last night, russians attacked Ukraine with 31 Iranian-made Shahed drones.
According to @KpsZSU, Ukraine’s air defense shot down 29 of them.
The vast majority of drones were destroyed in the skies above Kyiv and Kyiv region.… pic.twitter.com/WIpLfBbewe

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 30, 2023

Full text of the Ukrainian MOD’s tweet above:

Every Ukrainian’s rage is directed at every terrorist.
Last night, russians attacked Ukraine with 31 Iranian-made Shahed drones.
According to @KpsZSU, Ukraine’s air defense shot down 29 of them.
The vast majority of drones were destroyed in the skies above Kyiv and Kyiv region.

📸 Pavlo Petrov

 

This is Kyiv today.
We’ve said it before.
We’ll say it again.
russia is a terrorist state.
And will be dealt with accordingly.

📷 Valentyn Ogirenko / Reuters pic.twitter.com/BiJbZNiueq

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 30, 2023

We work 🫡 pic.twitter.com/5TYW7QesQm

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) May 30, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

We continue consolidating partners to make Ukrainian air defense as effective as possible – address by the President of Ukraine

30 May 2023 – 22:11

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report on this day. A pretty loud day.

First, I thank our Air Force and all the defenders of the sky for repelling another night raid by Russian drones.

Again and again, I thank our warriors for every downed Shahed, for every downed Russian missile. Because it always means saved lives, saved infrastructure.

Second, unfortunately, there were hits, unfortunately, there were falling debris with the corresponding consequences, unfortunately, there were losses… My condolences!

It is very, very important to take air raid alerts into account and not to take them carelessly.

I want all the local authorities responsible for specific communities and territories to hear me now.

Shelters in cities should be accessible. People need to understand when and how the number and availability of shelters will increase.

This is the responsibility of specific officials, and it is a specific responsibility.

Third, we continue to consolidate our partners to make Ukrainian air defense as effective as possible. Russian terror must be defeated every day and every night, in every region of Ukraine, in the skies of every Ukrainian city and village. When any attack by Russian terrorists ends in failure for the terrorists, their defeats will become a source of our long-term security.

Today I spoke with German Chancellor Scholz, in particular about air defense.

I thanked him for the air defense systems already provided to Ukraine, that is, for the lives of our people already saved by Germany. We also discussed the overall defense situation and our security cooperation.

On the eve of important international events that will take place shortly, we are coming up with common positions and decisions. And I thank Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, for his personal determination, which in many ways becomes the determination of the whole of Europe.

Fourth, I spoke with representatives of the powerful British defense company BAE Systems. This is a truly large-scale weapons manufacturer – the weapons that we need now and that we will need in the future to ensure the security of our country and the entire region.

We are working to create an appropriate base for production and repair in Ukraine. We are talking about a wide range of weapons: from tanks to artillery.

We will provide Ukraine, and thus the whole of Europe, with this new foundation of strength.

Fifth, today I met with the delegation of one of the world’s leading think tanks, the American Atlantic Council. It was a good, useful conversation to protect our common values, those of everyone in the world who cherishes freedom.

I informed the Atlantic Council representatives about our current main defense needs in the confrontation. We discussed the steps that bring the creation of a new aviation coalition closer. We are steadily moving closer to this result – to providing our warriors with modern fighter jets. And I thank all the people of the United States, each and every one in the political community who supports us, I thank President Biden personally and both parties in Congress.

Now, in Ukraine, on our land, in our sky, it is being decided whether freedom and civilization will retain global leadership in this century. Decided by us, together with America, together with Europe, together with all our allies and partners. I thank everyone in the world who helps us!

And, of course, today, as always, I thank our warriors. All those who are now fighting for Ukraine. All those who are on combat missions. At combat posts. The Avdiivka sector, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Shakhtarsk sector. I thank everyone who defends our positions in Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. I am grateful to each and every one who defends Zaporizhzhia and Kherson region. I thank everyone who keeps our border strong.

Our brigades that are fighting. Our brigades that are ready to move forward. And our intelligence. Our security forces. On all fronts and at all levels, the enemy must feel that Ukraine has become stronger.

Glory to our heroes! 

Glory to Ukraine!

More on the Russian bombardment:

Russia: *bombs Ukraine into the stone age for the last year and a half, several major cities razed to the ground, the country’s east turned into a wasteland, the capital city had 3 major missile & drone attacks within 24 hours*
Ukraine: *leaves a scratch on a posh Moscow mansion*…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 30, 2023

Here’s the full text of Ponomarenko’s tweet:

Russia: *bombs Ukraine into the stone age for the last year and a half, several major cities razed to the ground, the country’s east turned into a wasteland, the capital city had 3 major missile & drone attacks within 24 hours*
Ukraine: *leaves a scratch on a posh Moscow mansion*
Russia: *AAAAAAAAAAAHH! The Kiev regime’s act of terror! What’s the point in striking civilian buildings, that’s pure terrorism! Look what they’ve done to us! And the world is doing nothing to stop this genocide!*

The Sleepless Nights in Kyiv is not really about just terrorizing Ukraine's civilian population. I think even Russians at this point have realized that just doesn't work as it has never worked throughout history.
They are trying to undermine our military's counteroffensive…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 30, 2023

And the full text of his second tweet:

The Sleepless Nights in Kyiv is not really about just terrorizing Ukraine’s civilian population. I think even Russians at this point have realized that just doesn’t work as it has never worked throughout history. They are trying to undermine our military’s counteroffensive preparations across the country and also exhaust our air defense capabilities so our advancing forces would be far more vulnerable when the time comes. The next few weeks should show if Russia’s new bombing campaign was successful in this regard.

Moscow, Russia:

Moscow came under attack by several drones on Tuesday morning, exposing the Russian capital’s vulnerability to retaliation over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. https://t.co/cnlwemVP0F via @FT pic.twitter.com/VnOK0Ii4Wc

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 30, 2023

Rob Lee has a detailed thread with videos.

Russian channels are saying that air defenses around Moscow are trying to shoot down UAVs. They look like the same UAVs used in Krasnodar and one was reportedly armed with a KZ-6. https://t.co/M3liGqHFrMhttps://t.co/UdoHcEKhuRhttps://t.co/5f7TAek6iRhttps://t.co/vkMcHUKyaq pic.twitter.com/bC2dfulp7r

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 30, 2023

Baza claims more than 10 UAVs have been shot down. 3/https://t.co/nKKv4swxQVhttps://t.co/XtuAiRdC7vhttps://t.co/6vTYMUvczM pic.twitter.com/gZyYZtSOmB

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 30, 2023

Video of one of the UAVs. 5/https://t.co/dgTVmIqH3C pic.twitter.com/L0d5gA0PNM

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 30, 2023

7/https://t.co/Uks3lcV8Kp

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 30, 2023

Another video and an explosion. The Shot telegram channel claims that, according to preliminary information, more than 30 UAVs were used. 9/https://t.co/a5L4qRYso3https://t.co/s9k0mXDrSZhttps://t.co/0FNJN06MHu pic.twitter.com/JYvcHpldzR

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 30, 2023

Same video without the watermark and crop. 11/https://t.co/O8NZ8NTcDm pic.twitter.com/B9ksAhrgJB

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 30, 2023

Videos showing UAV wreckage. 13/https://t.co/zYBzmSeRUhhttps://t.co/otVQjsGuiyhttps://t.co/OsSMOi6SSYhttps://t.co/ogxc0ko55c pic.twitter.com/HHp9hPzEpj

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 30, 2023

15/https://t.co/CJ0NFs6OEq

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 30, 2023

Putin* got out of his bunker to say the Moscow air defence operated satisfyingly stopping the drone attack this morning, though areas of improvement remain. When it comes to Russia's richest people's houses, it was important for Putin to make a statement and reassure them.

He… pic.twitter.com/rl1ilKdH0M

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 30, 2023

Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:

Putin* got out of his bunker to say the Moscow air defence operated satisfyingly stopping the drone attack this morning, though areas of improvement remain. When it comes to Russia’s richest people’s houses, it was important for Putin to make a statement and reassure them. He also didn’t miss the opportunity to mention Ukrainian nuclear weapons, and even said that Ukraine launched a terror campaign against its own civilians preventing them from speaking publically (??). *Accused of war crimes, kidnapping children.

Out of area man has thoughts:

An angry statement from Prigozhin regarding the unexplained incident with unidentified UAVs that crashed in Moscow this morning. pic.twitter.com/NJ4ZPaoPM9

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 30, 2023

Tara Reade, writer of gushing encomiums to Putin, has moved to Moscow, is seeking Russian citizenship, and is being assisted by Marina Butinaa.

As a reminder, US journalist Evan Gershkovich is still under arrest and Brittney Griner was released only after a prisoner exchange. Why would any American going to Russia have feel safe?…Ah https://t.co/bdJXniEP23

— Don Moynihan (@donmoyn) May 30, 2023

John Scott-Railton has more. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1663621144145002500

Tara Reade just spent much of her 🇷🇺on camera time pushing right wing talking points about the 2024 US election.

Oh, and how wonderful things are in Russia.Image

Reade is just another American that has discovered the formula:

Go to 🇷🇺Russia & echo gov propaganda… and the government will make sure you get all the flattery you can eat.Image

By Reade’s telling she was so blown away by 🇷🇺Russian cuisine & museums while in town for an interview… that the decision was spontaneous.

Butina echoes the narrative.Image

Hope America can survive the grifter brain drain to 🇷🇺Russia. 

Tara [Reade] asked me to make it possible for her to come to Moscow..when she told her entire story…we Russians would never leave people to their devices… what she does here will make a major contribution to promoting unity between our two nations.

– Maria ButinaImage

Who could’ve possible known?

Pretty much everyone who was paying attention.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Meet Fougasse. The tankers call him a non-staff psychologist of the 92nd brigade.
This puppy was born on the front lines. He now serves in the #UAarmy and attends troops formation every morning.

📷 @armyinformcomua/ Olga Vikarchuk pic.twitter.com/qndVAKzuqO

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 30, 2023

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War for Ukraine Day 461: Everyone Could See This Coming – Tara Reade Has Moved To Moscow & Is Seeking Russian CitizenshipPost + Comments (61)

War for Ukraine Day 460: Ukrainian Air Defense!

by Adam L Silverman|  May 29, 20236:30 pm| 43 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

My family event got cancelled, so we’re on our usual schedule.

Once again, overnight, Russia opened up on Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense was up to the task.

Today, russian terrorists attacked Kyiv again by ballistic and cruise missiles. Metro became the largest city shelter for thousands of Ukrainians.

🎥@suspilne_news pic.twitter.com/4GqWFCApB5

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2023

According to @CinC_AFU, on May 29 russians attacked Kyiv and Kyiv region with 11 missiles (Iskander-K and Iskander-M).
ALL MISSILES WERE SHOT DOWN.
Excellent work of the Ukrainian air defenders!

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

With our success, pressure and Patriots we will respond to all manifestations of Russia’s evil – address by the President of Ukraine

29 May 2023 – 21:48

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today was a very long day, and it started very early for many of our people.

Several Russian terrorist attacks in one day. Shaheds, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles. Guided bombs. Thanks to our air defense, to all the defenders of the sky, at least hundreds of lives were saved today. In just one day. Most of the Shaheds and missiles were shot down.

But each such terrorist attack brings us and the whole world to an obvious conclusion: Russia wants to follow the path of evil to the end, that is, to its defeat, because evil cannot have any other end but defeat.

The world must see that terror is losing.

When Patriots in the hands of Ukrainians ensure one hundred percent downing of any Russian missiles, terror is losing.

When the world increases pressure on Russia, including sanctions, when the terrorist’s isolation grows, when its former partners are ashamed of any closeness with Moscow, terror is losing.

And, of course, there is no greater humiliation for a terrorist state than the success of our warriors.

In fact, with our success, our pressure, our Patriots we must and will continue to respond to all manifestations of Russia’s evil.

And we will destroy this evil.

No one else in the world uses weapons against evil more effectively than Ukrainians.

Today, I held a meeting of the Staff. The reports are very specific.

Supply of new air defense systems and missiles to them, relevant agreements with partners.

The effectiveness of our air defense and what can make our air defense stronger.

Hits that, unfortunately, took place.

Our defense forces are able to learn and will do everything to make it much more difficult for terrorists.

As usual, the Commander-in-Chief and the commanders of the operational directions reported to the Staff.

Not only the supply of ammunition, not only the training of new brigades, not only our tactics.

But also the timing. This is what is most important. The timing of how we will move forward. We will. The decisions have been made.

I thank every soldier and sergeant, officer and general, and every prepared brigade.

Today I also had a very informative meeting with our international staff.

We are preparing new joint steps with our partners to strengthen our defense. And for our active actions. There is no alternative to the complete liberation of our land. There is no alternative to the full protection of our values.

And I am grateful to all our partners who understand that respect for every human life, human freedom and international law are values on which no compromise is possible.

I would like to thank Denmark today – the entire nation, the entire Danish political class. Thank the Parliament, the Government and Prime Minister Frederiksen personally for the decision to increase financing of the Danish Fund of support for our country by more than USD 3 billion.

The total amount of defense assistance from Denmark will now reach more than $4 billion 700 million. This is very significant.

Such decisions make the defeat of Russian terror faster. Thank you for this!

Today I spoke with Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen. I thanked him for his principled support of international rules, of everything for which nations are united by the UN Charter and conventions binding for all.

I invited Cambodia to join joint efforts with various countries of the world in implementing our Peace Formula.

This is a common global task – to prevent Russia from making terror something usual to the world so that it leads to someone else catching this evil virus.

And just before recording this address, I had two more conversations.

I spoke with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte. I informed him about the terrorist attacks. I thanked him for his readiness to continue helping us protect people.

The Netherlands is among the leaders in helping protect against terror and bring terrorists to justice.

We discussed our defense cooperation – our new aviation coalition, a coalition of modern fighter jets that we are creating. And we will create it! Of course, we also discussed strengthening our air defense.

I spoke with President of Türkiye Erdoğan. I congratulated him on winning the elections.

I am confident that our further cooperation – Ukraine and Türkiye – at all levels will bring even more benefits to our people and international stability.

The security of our region and the whole of Europe, global food security, and the protection of fundamental norms of international law are what we did, do and will continue to do together.

Thank you to everyone in the world who helps! Glory to all our warriors!

Thanks again to the Air Force and all our defenders of the sky.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s more on Ukraine’s air defense efforts over night:

Call sign Pokémon.
Last night, this brave soldier serving in @ng_ukraine shot down a russian missile with an Igla MANPADS.
Well done, Pokémon! Gotta catch ‘em all! pic.twitter.com/TnvCgyqYAT

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2023

They were infants when russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.
Today in school, they not only study math, Ukrainian language, and history but also learn how to behave during an air attack.
A stolen childhood… and incredible resilience

🎥 @United24media pic.twitter.com/L427qrmLsC

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2023

Another ordinary day in Kyiv. Thank God, no one was hurt, the missile fell on the road and did not hit the bus. pic.twitter.com/J3XHvEn9yq

— Oleksiy Goncharenko (@GoncharenkoUa) May 29, 2023

Here’s the details for Ukraine’s air defense overall:

And Ukriane’s tally after a loud & long night:

Between midnight & 5am…

Air Force reports ~40 air-launched cruise missiles fired from 9 Russian Tu-95MS aircraft from Caspian Sea; 37 shot down by air defenses.

~35 Shahed drones, of which 29 were downed.

1 recon drone downed. pic.twitter.com/dQShQ0I3bE

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 29, 2023

According to Agence France Press, republished at Barron’s, five Ukrainian planes were damaged in the overall barrage:

In the western city of Khmelnytsky regional authorities said Russian troops attacked a military facility overnight.

In a rare admission of the damage, they said “five aircraft have been put out of action.”

Work was underway to localise fires at fuel and lubricant warehouses, the statement said.

President Zelenskyy has Memorial Day wishes for those of us here in the US:

My special gratitude on this Memorial day goes to all Americans of different times – sons and daughters, fathers and mothers, brothers and sisters, who became the warriors and whose strength turned into the strength of freedom and who were destined to show to the world that… pic.twitter.com/98kpAGApIw

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 29, 2023

Here’s the full text of his tweet:

My special gratitude on this Memorial day goes to all Americans of different times – sons and daughters, fathers and mothers, brothers and sisters, who became the warriors and whose strength turned into the strength of freedom and who were destined to show to the world that freedom will always shine bright on the hill. Let our victory, of the Ukrainian warriors, make this light shine brighter!

Your freedom stood, thanks to those who fought for it. Our freedom will stand, thanks to those who are fighting for it.

🇺🇦🇺🇸

The Ukrainian MOD also has a Memorial Day message:

On this Memorial Day, Ukraine joins our American friends in honoring the memory of those who made the ultimate sacrifice to protect freedom. Ever grateful for 🇺🇸 support in ensuring the victory of our shared values of liberty and peace. pic.twitter.com/jGcg8JQuq0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2023

And from their Telegram channel:

It’s really sad that the Ukrainians seem to have a better understanding of what today is supposed to commemorate than most Americans do.

The Washington Post did a nice article about Americans who had died helping to defend Ukraine from Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. Here’s an excerpt:

The two military officers, crisply attired in blue dress uniforms, ascended the front porch of a single-family home. One clutched a vinyl case containing an ornate white urn and, within, the ashes of Army veteran Andrew Peters.

The scene that April evening in Marshfield, Wis., was strikingly similar to the thousands of casualty assistance calls made by members of the U.S. military over 20 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, with the officers offering condolences on behalf of a grateful nation as the soldier’s parents, John and Heather, shuddered with grief. But there was a significant difference: Peters, 28, had died in February while fighting as a volunteer with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, and the respects paid to his father and mother were delivered not from the U.S. government but by Ukrainian military personnel dispatched from their embassy in Washington.

“It’s a weird, mixed feeling,” John Peters said, recalling the experience. “It’s great to have him home and his remains, but it’s finally sunken in: He’s never going to come back.”

As America’s most recent wars fade into history, some veterans have chosen to take up arms in Ukraine and, in at least 16 instances, given their lives while either defending its people from Russia’s onslaught or aiding those trapped in the violence. They’ve done so as private citizens, disregarding repeated official warnings from President Biden and others in his administration that grave danger awaits anyone who steps foot on the battlefield.

Survivors of those killed say the decision to trade the relative safety of home for a cause in a country not their own was inspired by the same democratic ideals that undergird service in the U.S. military: love of liberty, disdain for tyranny. Sometimes the choice was influenced, too, by a desire to escape personal turmoil, or a lust for action.

Memorial Day, by tradition, is a remembrance of those who’ve fallen fighting America’s wars. This year, for these families, it surfaces a complicated set of emotions as they are forced to reckon with the meaning of service under one flag and sacrifice under another.

Much, much more at the link including profiles of 1/2 a dozen Americans killed while serving in Ukraine.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Commenter Bex sent along this video of President Zelenskyy and Patron, as well as Patron’s owner Mykhailo, visiting children in Irpin. It is from September 2022. I can’t remember if I posted it at the time, so here it is:

There are no new videos posted today at Patron’s official TikTok.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 460: Ukrainian Air Defense!Post + Comments (43)

War for Ukraine Day 459: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

by Adam L Silverman|  May 28, 20236:03 pm| 49 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: I have a family event that I cannot get out of tomorrow afternoon. So tomorrow night’s post might be a bit later than usual. It may also be a bit briefer than usual as well.

Also, commenter Bex* sent me a video – I did not miss it or forget about it – but because I can only access the Balloon Juice email Alain set up for me on my iPad as its the only device I didn’t need to set back up when I switched MacBook Pros, I need to forward it to myself so I can get it into a post.

* If it wasn’t Bex, please correct me in the comments and take credit.

Last night in comments, dimmsdale asked:

Just wondering if any of the informed commentators here would care to speculate on the odds (and/or the means) of keeping the Rooskis’ military broken, reduced, and hopefully impotent once peace in Ukraine is achieved? I realize this is a VERY speculative question, and maybe it’s way too soon to put any intellectual energy into considering it, but isn’t it clear to the entire world that they can never ever again be allowed to raise a military with any offensive capability at all?

The model here should be what we did to reestablish the German military and establish the Japanese Self Defense Forces after World War II. Unfortunately, that would require treating Ukraine’s self defense against a genocidal re-invasion as the (most) kinetic element of a largely non-kinetic world war. Which we are most definitely not doing. As a result, whatever Ukraine is able to achieve is what will be achieved. And Russia will limp along under Putin or whomever takes over. All while nursing its ahistorical grievances and doing whatever it can to rebuild its military and its economy so it can then begin the cycle of revenge all over again.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

Kyiv and all our cities, the whole of Ukraine will put an end to the history of Moscow’s despotism – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

28 May 2023 – 19:05

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, our country went through one of the largest Russian attacks by Shaheds – 54 drones at a time. Almost all of them were shot down… Almost! Unfortunately, there were some hits in the Zhytomyr region. We will do everything to help restore what has been destroyed.

But still, most of the destruction was averted, and most of the lives that could have been taken by these Shaheds were saved. I am grateful to each and every person who made it possible! Anti-aircraft missile troops and aviation of the Air Force, air defense of the Ground Forces and our mobile fire groups… Thank you, warriors!

During this terrorist attack, the most powerful strike was aimed against the Kyiv region. Within the city of Kyiv and the region, 36 drones were shot down. This is how Russia celebrates the day of our ancient Kyiv…

Throughout its history, Kyiv has seen various meannesses from invaders. It has survived them all, and it will survive the ruscists. None of them will be here! Kyiv and all our cities, our entire Ukraine, will put an end to the history of Moscow’s despotism, which has been bringing enslavement to many different peoples for a very long time. Neither Shaheds nor any other means of terror that it humiliatingly seeks around the world will save it. Because strength is in people, it is in cities, it is in life, and when life, people, and the most important cities for culture are despised, Russia will only face defeat. And even hundreds of Shaheds will not save it from this. They will only enlarge Russia’s disgrace.

These days, we congratulate Kyiv and Oleksandriya, Severodonetsk, Kalush, Kryvyi Rih… Cities of different destinies, but of our equal respect. Our Ukraine. Our faith that we will pass this extremely difficult stage of history… We will, and all our cities will be free, and our people will be protected from any evil that may threaten our country.

Today I want to thank all our people who have fought and are fighting for Ukraine – all our warriors, all branches of the Armed Forces and all kinds of troops, every brigade, every unit. Thank you! To all those who are in combat, to all those who are on combat missions, to all those who are at combat posts!

And I thank everyone without whom we cannot imagine effective resistance of the state and effective defense of our cities. I am grateful to each and every one who trains our warriors and heals their wounds. Who produces and supplies weapons. Who provides our logistics and communications. I thank everyone who provides Ukraine with intelligence information and who spreads the truth about the war and Russian terror around the world. I am grateful to each and every one who ensures our rescue operations after enemy attacks and eliminates their consequences.

I am grateful to everyone in the world who cares and who wants freedom to win as much as we do.

All our power engineers and transport workers. Thank you! Ukrzaliznytsia. Defense industry. All our volunteers. United24 and our ambassadors. Thank you! Our law enforcement officers. Local authorities. Employees of public utilities. Our education system. Our cultural figures. Our historians. All those who keep jobs and all those who create jobs – no matter what. Our farmers, workers of our agricultural sector. Our industry. Our IT specialists. Our civil servants. Our diplomats. I thank everyone who strengthens our defense, our state, and our people!

The fact that our capital is free, the fact that our cities defend themselves with dignity, the fact that we will liberate every currently occupied city – all this is the merit of many people. All those who are fighting and working for Ukraine. This is the merit of our powerful nation that knows how to do historic things. When it is united. When it realizes its strength. When it forgives the enemy nothing. And when it inspires the whole world.

We are going forward until we liberate all of our Ukrainian land… We are defending every city… We take care of each other and remember all our people whom we have to bring home from Russian captivity to their cities and villages.

Glory to our beautiful people!

Glory to all who care about our country!

Glory to Ukraine!

Today is Kyiv Day.

Today we celebrate #KyivDay!
Kyiv, a city of free and brave people, has become a symbol of Ukraine’s unbreakable spirit and the Kremlin’s failed imperial ambitions.
Last night, Kyiv survived one of the largest russian air attacks since the beginning of the war.
They have failed… pic.twitter.com/ex9tPQcxe8

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) May 28, 2023

Full text of Minister of Defense Reznikov’s tweet:

Today we celebrate #KyivDay!
Kyiv, a city of free and brave people, has become a symbol of Ukraine’s unbreakable spirit and the Kremlin’s failed imperial ambitions.
Last night, Kyiv survived one of the largest russian air attacks since the beginning of the war.
They have failed yet again.
Kyiv stands strong.
They didn’t take you in 3 days. They couldn’t intimidate you in 459 days. They will be defeated.
Happy birthday, Kyiv!

From the Ukrainian MOD’s Telegram channel:

More than a year, since they tried to capture it in 3 days, more than 7 months since they tried to plunge it into darkness, more than 1541 years, since it was founded
Happy birthday, my Kyiv 🤍 pic.twitter.com/mljlAX3IRu

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz) May 28, 2023

Evenings of velvet,
Joy crashing like waves,
How can I not to love you,
My Kyiv!

🎥 Moisei Bondarenko pic.twitter.com/Ohpmw4K7oH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 28, 2023

The Russians also opened up on Ukraine, especially Kyiv, overnight.

Be brave like Ukraine.
Be strong like Kyiv.
Happy #KyivDay! pic.twitter.com/BkDjnMjGwx

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 28, 2023

Last night, russian terrorists carried out the largest drone strike on Ukraine to date.
Ukraine's air defense shot down 52 out of 54 Iranian-made Shaheds.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 28, 2023

Russia: attacking Kyiv with Shaheds for five hours
Kyiv: celebrating #KyivDay

They say we do not exist, but here we are, and Russia will follow the ship. pic.twitter.com/l4hVCBNsCg

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 28, 2023

Largest drone attack on Kyiv yet. At least 40 drones downed. No surprise Russia attacked on Kyiv Day, it can’t get used to the fact that thousand-year Kyiv has stood and will stand. Unlike Russia. pic.twitter.com/vnauv5fVun

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 28, 2023

Kyiv is preparing to celebrate it’s Day. I love this dancing girl. It's like all of Ukraine now. pic.twitter.com/kLNsyOaocd

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 27, 2023

There is something going on in southeastern Ukraine. By something I mean strikes on Mariupol, as well as reports of strikes on Avdiivka and other locations as well. Which might provide the context to this somewhat cryptic statement of Minister of Defense Reznikov.

.@oleksiireznikov
🚀 Storm Shadow long-range missiles have hit 100% of the targets identified by the General Staff.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 28, 2023

/1. Activity of Russian air defense was reported in Mariupol and Berdyansk areas.
Allegedly, in Mariupol area, strike was on recreation center "Solnechny" in Yurivka. https://t.co/hg9xALFGpG pic.twitter.com/sDIrBqqOFN

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 28, 2023

/3. Also Yurivka. pic.twitter.com/u8RG7g81l9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 28, 2023

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, had a very good and informative thread on what life is like in Kyiv right now. First and second tweets from the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Here is the rest of the thread. Apologies. Twitter did not want to upload it at once and was giving repeated errors. https://t.co/caCUaLxkHf

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) May 28, 2023

Here is the McDonalds video. Some popular accounts retweeted it separately, others just copied the video without attribution.

Many of them are anti-Ukrainian, some are skeptics.

One of the frequent comments: there is no war in Ukraine, it doesn’t look like a war zone. 2/

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Let’s debunk this “no war zone” argument.

The last night, I woke up to the sound of explosions. There were three loud pops real close outside our apartment. The windows shook but held. Believe me it is not pleasant. There was a largest ever drone attack on Kyiv. People died. 3/ImageImageImage

My sister, who lives in a different area, said they could not sleep. It was very loud, explosions, air defense, sound of shaheds.

Russia sent 54 attack drones, and 52 were intercepted. Again, civilians died.

You can read more here
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/371… 4/ImageImage

Ukraine’s defense forces destroy 52 out of 54 Shahed drones during night raidIn the early hours of May 28, 2023, the enemy attacked Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 attack drones from the Bryansk and Krasnodar regions, launching a record number of UAVs – 54. — Ukrinfor…https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3715113-ukraines-defense-forces-destroy-52-out-of-54-shahed-drones-during-night-raid.html
So, take me. I am the person who took that video in McDonalds on Friday night, and who could easily been hit by a drone on Saturday night. So, yes, it is a war zone. Even if McDonalds or other businesses don’t convey that impression. 5/ 

But they actually do so if you are perceptive. First, there are many more women than men in the video (approximately 27/17). Second, out of 27 men, two are wearing uniform, and another one is semi plain cloth military (hat, belt). That’s 18%. 6/

Unroll available on Thread Reader
Two more males give a military vibe. Military intelligence is often plain clothed. This applies also to territorial defense and to people on rotation or on vacation. There are several high school aged males who are not eligible to draft yet. And there are servers. 7/ 

So, if you watch the video carefully, about 1/3 or more are military or likely to be military related.

But it is also true that we try not to show military in the videos here, unless it is officially authorized. For obvious security reasons. 8/ 

For example, in this very video, there are two military men at the end. Later they turn around and you can see their faces. Then, they join a larger group of military. I cut that part off for security reasons. 9/ 
I put pictures of destroyed buildings and videos of civilian life, but I never take videos on military equipment or personnel. For example, in the video above, in the first tweet, the intention is to show no military, even if there were some. I trimmed the video accordingly. 10/ 

Now, let’s get to the second myth or argument: the fighting age males should be on the front line / otherwise it doesn’t look like an existential fight.

This is false. If we send all males to the front our economy will collapse. We are 40 m nation, 3m are involved directly. 11/ 

Many millions of others are involved indirectly in defense effort, but they are civilians – volunteers, analysts, donors, logistics, R&D, diplomacy, cyber warfare, etc.

So, no, not every fighting age male should be sent to the front of the war is existential 12/ 

Then, there is an argument that the vibe is too good for the wartime.

This is one is silly. Look carefully at the faces of people. Many of them are grim. They are not carefree. People are looking for normalcy, and McDonalds offers a semblance. 13/ 

A McDonalds trip on a Friday night is something from the pre war time. Something good, from the life without bombs.

Yes, my wife and I go to movie theaters. I guess the same people would be shocked to learn the theaters work and their popcorn and we watch Marvel. 14/Image

It helps us forget about the war for a couple of hours but it is not quite the same. There is curfew, the theaters shut down early, and you can see a lot of people in uniform or wounded.

The train shows the most in children. Anything can trigger a panic attack in them. 15/ 

Let me address the complains about good service and hygiene, better in the US.

You should not assume Ukrainians don’t clean or are not polite because of the war.

It is more of the reflection on the IS that their McDonalds are not always in a good shape. 16/ 

Then, there is this argument “our tax payers money goes to Ukraine so they can eat in McDonalds”.

The opposite is true. Because economy is operating, because people go to restaurant, Ukraine has its own tax base to defend itself and requires less support than otherwise. 17/ 

So, McDonalds on Friday night is complementary to the defense effort. Because a good economy help to have stronger military. 18/ 

Now, people also said “why should we send any money to Ukraine if our people are suffering more than those in this McDonalds”.

This is an important question. First, both in Ukraine and in the West there are poor people and there are well off people. 19/ 

Everywhere around the world we should work on reducing power Ty and inequality. But this argument is irrelevant to the support of Ukraine.

What happens if Russia wins? There will be more spending on defense on the West and funds will be taken away from education, social support 

A more fundamental question is why the West should support Ukraine. Many people said “we don’t care, it is not our fight”. Well, yes and no. Of Ukraine falls it will mean that the West is weak. The consequences – a more coloration world, weaker standing of the US and NATO. 21/ 

The consequences are clear – more terrorism, more political polarization and radicalization, threats in Europe and Asia, hurt global economy, disrupted supply chains, higher prices.

So, if we are honest to ourselves, then Ukraines victory is national interest of the West 22X. 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Happy Sunday☺️ pic.twitter.com/liDTn75wPJ

— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 28, 2023

There’s a video(ish) version at Patron’s official TikTok, but we’ve got the embedding issue again. So just click through on this link to see it.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 459: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have AnswersPost + Comments (49)

War for Ukraine Day 458: A Message from General Zaluzhnyi

by Adam L Silverman|  May 27, 202310:41 pm| 44 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Before we get started I just want to thank everyone, again, for the kind words and to once again say that you’re all welcome. Additionally, a few of you suggested in comments last night that I should set up something so those of you who wish to could send me money as a sign of appreciation for these posts. If you really feel the need to kick some money in, please just contribute to the site’s fundraising page Balloon Juice for Ukraine. That, and your kind words, will be thanks enough!

General Zaluzhnyi released a message today:

The time has come to take back what belongs to us. pic.twitter.com/sH1Yrggg8U

— Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (@CinC_AFU) May 27, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

We will continue our sanctions steps, and new, even more extensive sanctions packages are on the way – address of President of Ukraine

27 May 2023 – 21:15

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today is another sanction day. Sanctions against legal entities and individuals – most of them are Russian – who work for terror.

In total, 220 companies and 51 individuals. These are defense industry enterprises and related Russian companies. Enterprises serving the war. And the persons through whom these companies are managed.

Not all of them operate on the territory of the terrorist state, some – in other countries. But everyone will get global pressure. Step by step, we collect complete data on everyone who works for aggression – directly or indirectly. Each such person will be blocked, and our Ukrainian sanctions are either already synchronized or will be synchronized with the sanctions of the free world.

When Russia started this aggression, they looked at the world as if they were looking at themselves in a mirror. They thought that supposedly everyone in the world was as cynical and despised people in the same way as the masters of Russia do. But the world is different – the world helps us protect life. And anyone who goes against the world will become marginal. Russia will gain nothing and lose everything. Together with those who somehow try to help it in terror.

We will continue our sanctions steps, and new sanctions packages are on the way – even more extensive.

At the end of the week, I want to thank Japan for the new sanctions package against Russia. I’m also thankful for the new security assistance from Japan. It is what really saves lives.

I’m grateful to Finland for the new defense package for Ukraine. This decision was also made this week.

I’m thankful to Germany for transferring another batch of various types of defense equipment to our country to strengthen our defense against Russian terror, including defense of the sky.

I want to thank Canada for its willingness to strengthen its leadership in supporting Ukraine.

Thank you, Iceland, for helping our defense and our people.

We will also make next week strong from the point of view of our cooperation with partners. We don’t lose a single week.

And, as always, I’m thankful to our soldiers, each and every one who played a distinguished role during the week.

Bakhmut direction… 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade – thank you, warriors, for your active actions! It is exactly what is needed. Glorious 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade Kholodny Yar – thank you for your resistance and courage! Well done!

Lyman direction… 81st Separate Airmobile Brigade – thank you, guys, for your efficiency in destroying the enemy!

Tavria task force… 35th and 36th separate marine infantry brigades, 55th Separate Artillery Brigade, 59th Separate Motorized Brigade, and paratroopers of our 79th Air Assault Brigade – I thank you all! As always – strong, as always – effective!

Glory to all who defend our state! Glory to all who help!

Glory to Ukraine!

Kyiv:

Kyiv is preparing to celebrate it’s Day. I love this dancing girl. It's like all of Ukraine now. pic.twitter.com/kLNsyOaocd

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 27, 2023

Kharkiv:

A graduation ceremony outside a Kharkiv school damaged by russian terrorists. pic.twitter.com/ivqdc1ptZ7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 27, 2023

Marinka:

Scouring old pictures, I found this sunset photo we took during a trip to Marinka in 2016

Marinka was "war torn" at that time with half the civilians having fled the town

But now, zero civilians remain in Marinka and the Russians have wiped it off the face of the earth pic.twitter.com/X0kQPm6zIq

— Christian Borys (@ItsBorys) May 27, 2023

Let them fight:

Girkin accuses Prigozhin of preparing for a coup in Russia. He says the insults towards the Russian army by Putin's cook are unacceptable, and signal a rift in the elites which Prigozhin will take advantage of with his private army that is being withdrawn from Bakhmut. Girkin… pic.twitter.com/kKh6C2K6Fc

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 27, 2023

Somewhere in Russia near the border with Ukraine:

Russian Telegram channels are sharing reports of unconfirmed clashes in border towns of the Bryansk People's Republic. Meanwhile, let's watch a video of more vehicles at an undisclosed location, in close proximity to the border. Who said I was joking or trolling? pic.twitter.com/Hx9tfzRYBk

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 27, 2023

Gen (ret) Breedlove, who was the Commanding General of US European Command and the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) in 2014 (my boss’s boss), has some thoughts on Ukrainian pilots and F-16s:

“It’s not about delivery just now,” said retired Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander. “Ukraine is going to need an air force to defend itself because Russia will be back.”

“The integration of avionics, weapons systems, and weapons are decades ahead of what they’re flying now,” Breedlove said. “There will be an increased capability, increased radar range, increased weapons range, etc. But this is not the be-all to end-all.”

Ukrainian officials have expressed hope they will be flying the planes by the fall, but some U.S. officials said they cannot guarantee the aircraft will be in Ukraine’s hands before the end of the year.

A U.S. Air National Guard analysis assessing Ukrainian pilots’ skills, reported by Yahoo News, said they could be trained to operate the plane in as little as four months. It could take months more, however, to turn those pilots into airmen who can hold their own in combat and make full use of the F-16’s attributes, experts said.

If Ukrainians are not thoroughly trained in Western tactics, “you’re not going to realize any of the benefits of having a real four-plus generation aircraft,” said Breedlove, a former F-16 pilot. “If you take an F-16 and fly it and use it like a MiG-29, you’re just going have a hotrod MiG-29, and that’s it.”

Still, the time needed is likely far short of the 18 months the Pentagon previously cited as the fastest possible timeline.

“We always overestimate how long it’s going to take to bring a new weapons system into the Ukrainian military,” Breedlove said. “They can clearly outperform our expectations.”

And Maj Gen (ret) Stutzreim has some thoughts on Ukrainian air defense from the same article:

Instead of aircraft, U.S. officials have focused on providing Ukraine with air defenses, which has resulted in largely mutually-denied airspace over the country. But some F-16 proponents argue that since Ukraine’s counteroffensive is so critical, the U.S. should have been quicker to supply Kyiv with Western aircraft.

Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem, a former F-16 pilot and director of research at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said military planners should not throw up their hands but should use drones, electronic warfare, countermeasures, and real-time targeting to enable Ukraine’s air force to find pockets in which it can operate and strike. Stutzriem said it’s not about only the aircraft, but the integration of many capabilities to gain air superiority. Then, the fighter can strike Russian forces and their logistics.

“It can go fast with great flexibility to strike the adversary in depth, not merely where the land forces engage along a front,” Stutzriem said. “That’s why airpower was invented, to rise above the trenches and slog of land warfare.”

More at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Last night in comments, A Good Woman asked:

OK, I confess I am actually a technology idiot.

I would love to order up some packages for the orphans, but my payment options appear to be 3rd party vendors to use for payment, and I would like to stick to my trusty VISA.  Suggestions, recommendations, what do I do?

I asked Gin & Tonic if he might be able to help navigating this issue for us. Here is his reply:

Selecting “Monobank” as a payment option clicks through to several ways of paying Monobank, among which Visa/Mastercard is included. This would seem to satisfy the commenter’s request.

Here’s the link to the Patron box gift set for those interested in purchasing one or more for Ukrainian war orphans and/or Ukrainian children in hospital in Ukraine.

And here’s the 2 tweet thread in question:

🙁made a typo: PatronBox will be given to orphans or children in hospitals (depending on how many boxes can be collected)

— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 25, 2023

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Вас викликає Пес Патрон, щоб особисто побажати гарного дня!

♬ Viber – Mirsad Ramljak

Here is the machine translation of the caption:

The Patron Dog is calling you to personally wish you a good day!

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 458: A Message from General ZaluzhnyiPost + Comments (44)

War for Ukraine Day 457: Russia Opens Up on Dnipro, Kyiv, and Other Parts of Ukraine!

by Adam L Silverman|  May 26, 20237:28 pm| 80 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Earlier today the Russians decided to unload on civilian targets in Dnipro.

Residential quarters, a clinic, and a veterinary hospital. This is a complete list of "military facilities" damaged today by a russian missile attack on the city of Dnipro.
Two people were killed and 30 were injured, including two children aged three and five. pic.twitter.com/JkhBOxEGKu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 26, 2023

Russia attacked Dnipro in the daytime. 2 children, boys aged 3 and 6, injured. At least 11 people in the hospital, one person killed. pic.twitter.com/aK5j3V2xL5

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 26, 2023

We’ll cover the other areas that Russia targeted after the jump.

I’ve just checked the Ukrainian air raid tracker and there does not appear to be anything currently active. I’ve also poked around on the flight trackers and they’re not reporting anything currently in the air for Russia. For now things are quiet over Ukraine. Unfortunately, this can change very quickly.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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During this week, we have also made substantial progress in providing modern aircraft for Ukraine – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

26 May 2023 – 19:23

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

I just held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

The questions are obvious. The front line, our defense, and our active actions, providing our soldiers with weapons and ammunition, equipment.

Air defense and protection against terror. During the day, I receive reports on the situation in the city of Dnipro and the elimination of the consequences of another strike. It is a pure atrocity: a Russian missile, ballistics – against a hospital and a veterinary clinic. Absolutely sick creatures.

As of this minute, two people have been killed in this strike. My condolences to families and friends! Debris clearance has not yet been completed. More than 30 people have been injured, including two children.

We will do everything possible, everything impossible, to speed up the supply of more air defense systems of a higher quality to Ukraine – this is literally a daily issue for work with partners.

During this week, we have also made substantial progress in providing modern aircraft for Ukraine, which will become a key component of our defense in the sky. We are moving faster in defense modernization than could have been predicted six months ago.

General Syrsky made an important report at the Staff meeting – regarding the relevant directions in Donbas. Our soldiers are doing incredible things there, and every position retaken from the occupiers, every height occupied by our forces are new and new arguments for the world that Ukraine can, can win. Thanks to every soldier! Tavria, Odesa, Pivnich, defense of Kharkiv region – attention to each direction. Supplying equipment to offensive brigades.

The Minister of Defense reported to me about the results of the Ramstein meeting – good results.

Today, I also held a meeting with international experts regarding our movement in NATO – a more conceptual one. We have to use it – and we will use it! – every opportunity this month and next month, in general, this year, to fill our relations with the Alliance with real political content.

I had an important conversation with Senator Graham, one of the most influential and experienced U.S. senators. We discussed the situation in our defense today, our needs in the near future. Thank you for understanding Ukraine!

We are preparing several international appeals to increase support for our state and our struggle for freedom – support among our traditional allies and partners and in the countries of the Global South.

I held a meeting devoted to new sanctions against those who support Russian aggression.

And one more.

Today Georgia celebrates Independence Day. I greet all the people of Georgia and wish them to be together with us and all other European nations in a free, peaceful and united European family. I wish this for the entire Georgia – and those parts of your country that are still under Russian occupation. Yet! Georgia is one of the ancient and respected historical forces, and this force CANNOT be defeated, I am sure of it. The occupier will lose. გაუმარჯოს თავისუფალ საქართველოს!

Glory to Ukraine!

The Ukrainians have commissioned a new gunboat!

A small armored artillery boat (project 58155) entered into service with the Naval Forces of Ukraine today.
It was named “Bucha” in honor of the town on the outskirts of Kyiv, which, in the early days of the full-scale invasion, became a symbol of an indomitable Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/uHNvHslqmD

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 26, 2023

The Bucha is a Gyurza-M class gunboat. Her official name is BK-08 Bucha and its pennant number is P181. Her hull number is 01036 and it was laid down on 8 FEB 2019. Would one of our Ukrainian speakers please let me know if I should be referring to the Bucha as a he, which, if I’m recalling correctly, was the standard usage in the Soviet and now the post Soviet Russian Navy?

Regardless, fair winds, following seas, good hunting, and if I may cross Service lines and use my brigade combat team’s motto: Strike Hard!

Here’s some more on the Bucha from the Ukrainain MOD’s Telegram channel:

And another one:

Bakhmut:

Awful, apocalyptic scenes of the ruins in Bakhmut after 10 grueling months of Russian attacks using some of the most brutal weapons and tactics. Video comes from Russian state propaganda outlet RIA.pic.twitter.com/gH5eLM6PIZ

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 26, 2023

More from Dnipro:

A missile strike on a medical clinic has left at least one person dead and 16 injured in Dnipro.

A difficult couple of weeks for Ukrainian cities under Russian missiles. pic.twitter.com/JQyTCMTEV3

— James Waterhouse (@JamWaterhouse) May 26, 2023

⚡️Zelensky: 1 killed, 15 injured in Russian strike on clinic in Dnipro.

According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the rescue operation is ongoing at the site of the missile strike that Russian forces launched on the morning of May 26.

Video: President's Office pic.twitter.com/AWoJfZa1J1

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 26, 2023

Mariupol:

Strike/Explosion reported in Mariupol. Somewhere in Azovstal area. https://t.co/J655BgSkWg pic.twitter.com/0UeTPSPtJd

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 26, 2023

Explosions in Mariupol. Possibly a missile strike around Azovstal. Where will Russia store the ammo now? pic.twitter.com/UdwcJE9Ead

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 26, 2023

Merefa:

This is how Russia is killing Ukraine's economy. Modern oil refinery in Merefa totally destroyed. pic.twitter.com/tcCToIi6z2

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 26, 2023

Trotsnoyets:

The Mondelez International factory in Trostyanets after russian occupation.
But at the same time, this company's three factories continue to operate in russia, and contributed $61 million in taxes to the terrorist state's budget in 2022, allowing it to continue to wage war. pic.twitter.com/GSsqG2zX5Y

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 26, 2023

Marinka:

#Ukraine: The Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade destroyed a Russian T-62MV tank (Possibly Obr. 2022) in the vicinity of Marinka, #Donetsk Oblast. pic.twitter.com/gn54ytNGHZ

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 26, 2023

Kyiv:

13th missile attack on Kyiv in May. And no, you don’t get used to it. My whole neighborhood was awake when a missile was shot down nearby. So instead of debris I post these Irises for the incredible Ukrainian air defense. pic.twitter.com/CB0zdBrrJE

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 26, 2023

Spirne, Donetsk Oblast:

Russian most modern working tank T-90M tried to hide underground from Ukrainian drones but failed. 54th Brigade of Ukraine. Soledar-Siversk direction. https://t.co/NJuT62UH5o pic.twitter.com/Kvu6xlIzoH

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 26, 2023

From Dmitri of War Translated, an interview of a Ukrainian Gepard operator with English subtitles:

Ukrainian serviceman talks about his experience commanding the Gepard air-defence system crew. pic.twitter.com/scAEWVHNRx

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 26, 2023

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Footage of one of the UAVs that struck Krasnodar. 3/https://t.co/evM3PJfiXF pic.twitter.com/aTlMtG5pFU

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 26, 2023

Footage of two unidentified drones waking up the residents of Russian Krasnodar this morning. pic.twitter.com/n1vstsv7Sk

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 26, 2023

The Kyiv Independent‘s Ilya Ponomarenko has published a new and very timely op-ed. Here are some excerpts: (emphasis mine)

You’re closely following the living history of a nation bravely resisting an imperialistic war of aggression that has inspired the world when, all of a sudden, you come across a picture of a Ukrainian soldier wearing a Totenkopf “skull and crossbones” patch or giving the Nazi salute.

Rightfully so, the use of Nazi or neo-Nazi-related symbols by Ukrainian combatants is shocking and almost always causes controversy.

These symbols, reminders of some of history’s worst crimes against humanity and the attempt to exterminate entire groups of people, are deeply offensive.

Of course, seeing these symbols on soldiers is always distressing, to say the least. While these soldiers do not represent a widespread practice in the Ukrainian military, the use of these symbols nonetheless discredits Ukraine and scares away some potential supporters worldwide.

After almost a decade of reporting on this war, I’d like to chip in with a couple of thoughts on why you might see these symbols on the battlefield in Ukraine. Not to justify these soldiers’ decisions — as any use of Nazi symbols should always be condemned — but to offer my explanation for this phenomenon.

So, why are these symbols present on the battlefield?

First of all, let’s establish one fact. No, Ukraine does not have “a Nazi problem.”

Ukraine is no more “Nazi” than any country that has its small number of misfits who admire Adolf Hitler and form fringe groups and gangs based on those views. Ukraine has its groups like the U.K. has the neo-Nazi organization Combat 18, the Scandinavians have the Nordic Resistance Movement, and the United States has the Aryan Brotherhood.

With absolutely no proof, the Kremlin’s war propaganda created the absurd narrative that Ukraine is a full-fledged, World War II-style Nazi nation that needs to be “de-Nazified” as justification for its brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Just like in many places around the world, people with far-right and neo-Nazi views, driven by their ideology, are prone to joining the military and participating in conflicts. One also has to take into account that in Ukraine, nationalism with deep historical roots is tied to a desire for independence from Russia. It has driven many to take up arms to fight in what they believe is an existential war against a neighbor that seeks to subjugate and destroy their country.

Among them, people with far-right views.

This feeling was very real back in 2014, in the early days of Russia’s war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas. Ukraine’s military was deeply disorganized and disoriented. Ultra-nationalist and far-right groups were among the many others that organized volunteer battalions to fight Russia’s invasion in the east.

These groups were aggressive and highly motivated. It is, of course, true that, for instance, the Azov Battalion was originally founded by neo-Nazi and far-right groups (as well as many soccer ultra-fans), which brought along with it the typical aesthetics — not only neo-Nazi insignia but also things like Pagan rituals or names like “The Black Corps,” the official newspaper of Nazi Germany’s major paramilitary organization Schutzstaffel (SS).

But as with any country, real neo-Nazis in Ukraine were and still are a tiny minority.

All former guerilla groups with far-right ties were quickly absorbed into Ukraine’s Armed Forces or the National Guard between 2015-2016 as linear, disciplined, and fully-controlled combat units.

From my experience observing this war over the years since 2014, the Ukrainian military has done a rather good job of “secularizing” and isolating these units from their far-right origins, largely due to pressure from the West.

This policy could be described as “keep your views to yourself and train hard.”

This is what happened with Azov. Far more moderate servicemembers rose to prominence (and even to fame during the Battle of Mariupol and the siege of Azovstal), along with military specialists from other branches of service, who joined Azov because they wanted to serve with a highly professional combat unit.

It hasn’t helped that, since 2014, some Western journalists have made the supposed “rise of the far right” a staple of their coverage of Ukraine, as headlines of supposed neo-Nazis in the country are consistently attention-grabbing.

And right before the full-scale invasion, certain American journalists wrote about how Ukrainian neo-Nazis were allegedly using the threat of Russia’s full-scale invasion to seize power in the country.

But guess what — the Russian invasion did happen, and the neo-Nazi power grab never did. Not only was there no serious evidence ever presented to support claims of an attempted “coup,” these fringe elements are nothing compared to Ukraine’s state and military machine.

A drop in the ocean, as the saying goes.

Nevertheless, notorious Nazi and quasi-Nazi symbols are sometimes used by soldiers who do not come close to having any extremist or hateful views.

Nevertheless, notorious Nazi and quasi-Nazi symbols are sometimes used by soldiers who do not come close to having any extremist or hateful views.

So why is this happening? In the oversimplified memory of some around the world, particularly within various militaristic subcultures, symbols representing the Wehrmacht, Nazi Germany’s Armed Forces, and the SS are seen to reflect a super-effective war machine, not the perpetrators of one of the greatest crimes against humanity in human history.

While this, of course, does not absolve these soldiers of wearing extremely offensive insignia, it offers a partial explanation as to why, in my opinion, these symbols have become an integral part of global militaristic subcultures that embrace different historical symbols of war, particularly Nazi ones.

As these insignia were absorbed into militaristic subcultures around the globe, many who wear Nazi patches on their uniforms have come to disassociate these emblems from the crimes committed by their original users 80 years ago.

Although the presence of Nazi symbols on the battlefield generates the most controversy, they are just a fraction of the militaristic emblems embraced by combatants worldwide. Norse and pseudo-Norse, or Viking, symbols of war — the very symbols that the Nazis themselves used to create their own insignia — are also very common.

The culture of modern war patches, a strange, pseudo-art form in militaristic subcultures, has developed into a standalone phenomenon in which those who bear them sometimes completely divorce their modern use with any former ideology. And some symbols hardly have any ideology behind them at all – such as the ubiquitous Punisher skull patch coming from the famous Marvel show.

This phenomenon is hardly unique to Ukraine.

One might remember a scandal over the fact that U.S. Marines Scout Snipers used the SS runes as their unofficial symbol. In 2012, they thought it was a good idea to take a picture of themselves posing next to an SS flag in Afghanistan, prompting swift action from the Corps.

Russia’s propaganda created and cultivated for years the myth about the Ukrainian far-right, inflating their numbers and so-called power within the country. Many Western journalists have built their entire careers feeding off of Moscow’s narrative.

The irony is that Russia has long promoted not only Nazi-style symbols but Nazi practices, morphing into a fascist state that has made war crimes part of its foreign policy.

The Russian far-right and neo-Nazi paramilitary unit Rusich uses both the swastika and the 88 symbol, a neo-Nazi numerical code for “Heil Hitler.”

Dmitriy Utkin*, the alleged co-founder and top commander of the notorious mercenary army Wagner Group, has a large swastika and the Wehrmacht symbol tattooed on his body. And yes, he goes under the nom-de-guerre Wagner not because he’s a big fan of the opera. Hitler was a great admirer of the 19th-century German composer Richard Wagner and glorified him during his reign.

Russia’s official policy is ethnic cleansing, killing those speaking Ukrainian, kidnapping Ukrainian children and raising them as Russian, and denying a nation of 40 million the right to exist.

More at the link!

* If you want to know if anyone talking about Wagner knows anything about Wagner, ask them the following question: how many Dmitriy Utkins are there? If the answer is one, they don’t know what they’re talking about. I’ll put the correct answer in the first comment.

Also, you’ll notice what Ponomarenko is describing in his op-ed: that this entire discussion, including that being done in legitimate news reporting, is occurring within Russia’s informational framing. As I wrote the other night, Russia won the information war on this and a number of other issues – many not related to Ukraine at all – way back between late 2011 and 2014. The result is that far too much of our policy discussions are occurring within Russia’s framing. And that includes the domestic moral panics that just miraculously reignited in time for the 2020 election and have been artificially amplified and boosted ever since. Does anyone really think a loser like Chris Rufo – failed career, failed political bid – actually managed to create the overlapping anti-CRT, anti-woke, anti-trans (the “grooming”) moral panics on his own? Of course not, don’t be naive.

Our last bit of serious stuff for tonight is an op-ed by RAF Air Marshal (ret) Edward Stringer published in The Financial Times:

Many have questioned why President Volodymyr Zelenskyy so determinedly pressed for the supply of F-16 fighter planes to his forces in Ukraine. Can one particular aircraft make such a difference? The answer, in the case of the F-16, is yes.

In using the G7 summit to announce that the US would help train Ukrainian pilots to fly the aircraft, Joe Biden tied his allies into the decision. In effect, Zelenskyy hijacked the event so that major nations swung in behind Ukraine, just as the Russian military leadership appeared to be turning on itself.

Biden’s initial reticence on F-16 training was the fear of escalation. That the White House has overcome this caution suggests that their risk appetite has increased. Its other concern was that the Ukrainians would not be able to operate these jets effectively. Nato would usually package F-16s with a full range of supporting aircraft that are considered essential to their operations: electronic warfare, suppression of enemy air defences and airborne command and control. Without these, critics argued, the planes would be of little use.

The easiest charge to dismiss is that it would take 18 months to train Ukrainian pilots. Recent US Air Force trials proved that even though the F-16 is a high-performance fighter, experienced Ukrainian pilots could learn to fly it in four months.

In fact, Ukrainian forces have integrated western weapons on ex-Soviet aircraft in timescales that should embarrass our own peacetime processes. There are legitimate questions about who does deep maintenance on this western aircraft, but maintaining the F-16 on the frontline should not be an issue: it is a straightforward, single-engine aircraft, produced in great numbers, and so spare parts are plentiful.

The far bigger issue is who sustains the supply of western air-to-air missiles. The US Amraam is very capable but cost an estimated $1mn each. The longer-range European Meteor is even more expensive. While national war stock levels are understandably classified, it is an open secret that most Nato air forces are short. Allies would do well to accelerate their missile supply chains as a matter of urgency.

The lack of supporting air power is harder to remedy. Of course, Ukraine cannot replicate Nato support functions. But it doesn’t have to: Kyiv is not seeking a package of expeditionary air power, operating at range, deep into enemy territory. It only needs to keep the Russian air force (VKS) on the back foot in the skies over Ukraine.

The war has so far revealed that the VKS is restricted to operating in very small formations and only in airspace over land it controls. But it is shielded by extensive surface-to-air missiles and has longer-range air-launched weapons that give it the advantage over Ukrainian equipment.

The F-16, with its longer-range radars, sensors and missiles, would restore the Ukrainian air force’s edge both qualitatively and quantitatively — and push the VKS back into Russia. That will, in turn, protect both Ukraine’s ground forces and its critical infrastructure. But boosting its effectiveness in the absence of wider air power packaging will require imagination.

For me this is the heart of the Air Marshal’s argument, not the technical discussions: (emphasis mine)

Finally, there is a moral dimension to consider. Nato would fight Russia by winning the air battle first, and then using air superiority to drive a more efficient land battle. Given the weakness of the VKS, this is no pipe dream. But the west’s constrained donations to date have forced Ukraine to pursue grinding land tactics. We have restricted Kyiv to fighting in a way that we would not, and to take casualties that we would not.

This is, perhaps, the best articulation of what has been frustrating and angering me for the past 15 months! Especially as all Ukraine asked for was the means to defend itself rather than asking us to come fight for them. And our response has been we support Ukraine completely all while forcing them to fight in a manner so constrained that we would never even remotely consider fighting that way. For all the aid we and our allies have provided, for all the encouraging statements of moral support, if we had any self awareness at all we will look in the mirror and find ourselves morally wanting. Unfortunately, as a society we don’t have any self awareness and will likely applaud ourselves for our moral courage, when in reality we should be repenting our moral cowardice.

That’s enough for tonight.

We have more Ukrainian strategic wildlife assets!

A Ukrainian kamikaze titmouse, grown in a bio-lab, eats plastic explosives before a sortie. pic.twitter.com/vfaRg0fBO4

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 26, 2023

Your daily Patron!

I’m just going to repost last night’s tweets about the Patron boxes for Ukrainian children:

🙁made a typo: PatronBox will be given to orphans or children in hospitals (depending on how many boxes can be collected)

— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 25, 2023

And a new official video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Ось таке макеба наразі! #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

The machine translation of the caption is:

That’s the kind of makeba we have now! #песпатрон#патрондснс

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 457: Russia Opens Up on Dnipro, Kyiv, and Other Parts of Ukraine!Post + Comments (80)

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