Putin must lose, and this is a matter of life and death for the democratic world – address by the President of Ukraine

20 March 2024 – 22:50

Dear Ukrainians!

Here are the results for this day.

The day began with a report by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and Chief of the General Staff Anatoliy Barhylevych. Our main actions – the situation now, key directions, planned steps. We are working as actively as possible with our partners and on domestic production of weapons to provide more necessary means for our warriors.

Second, there were a lot of international activities today. A very eventful day. A conversation with the Prime Minister of India. I thanked Mr. Prime Minister Modi for the continued support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our country, as well as for the participation in the work on the Peace Formula at the level of advisors. I invited India to participate in the first Global Peace Summit that we are preparing in Switzerland. It is very important that such a global power as India demonstrates its leadership in restoring a just peace and upholding the goals and principles of the UN Charter, which is the essence of our Peace Formula. Of course, we also discussed bilateral relations with Mr. Prime Minister of India.

Today I held several international meetings in Kyiv. In the afternoon, I met with the Minister of Defense of the Netherlands – it was a very substantive and good conversation. The key thing we discussed was the protection of our cities and villages, air defense for Ukraine to really save our people from Russian terror. We also discussed ways to increase the capabilities of our army. The Netherlands is one of our most consistent partners in protecting human lives and upholding justice.

In the evening, I met with Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to the President of the United States. It was also a very meaningful, very specific conversation about defense cooperation and the joint political results we need to achieve. I am grateful to America for its support of our country and people, and it is vital that American leadership remains strong in protecting the international legal order.

We must be resilient to all types of challenges, and our actions must be long-range to defeat Putin, rather than being in a situation where doubts about the strength of the West benefit this lunatic. Putin must lose – and this is a matter of life and death for the democratic world. When he loses, the democratic world will have a bright perspective for generations to come.

Today I took part in the Summit for Democracy. This is the third time this format has been held – this year the Republic of Korea brings together democratic leaders. I am grateful to everyone who cares about preserving the freedom of nations and the development of people despite all the difficulties and chaos in the world today.

And one more thing.

Our Kharkiv… For more than two years now, Kharkiv and the region have been subjected to brutal Russian attacks. Saltivka was destroyed by missiles, other districts and streets of the city were damaged. Villages and towns in the region were destroyed. Today was another Russian strike on Kharkiv, which will have no effect on anything, except that Ukraine will respond in an even more principled and precise manner. Five people were killed by a Russian missile in Kharkiv today. My condolences to all the families and friends.

Every wounded person is being provided with the necessary assistance. But this is not enough – everyone should realize this. Kharkiv needs enough air defense systems. Sumy region needs air defense. Chernihiv region and all our other regions that suffer from Russian terror. Our partners have these defense systems. And our partners need to understand that air defense must protect lives.

I am grateful to everyone who protects normal life in our cities and villages! Thank you to everyone in the world who helps! Thank you to everyone who fights for the sake of our country and the people who work for defense, for Ukraine! We must stand firm and guarantee reliable security for Ukraine. For the whole of Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Just two more days till a US government shutdown and three more days until the House of Representatives goes on a two week vacation for Easter:

We have 3 more days before Congress goes for a two-week recess.
35 House Democrats and most House Republicans haven't signed the discharge petition to bring the Ukraine aid bill the floor for a vote

Urge your representatives to sign it today. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/qZUsdIL13o

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) March 20, 2024

And Speaker Johnson is going to continue to bottle up more aid for Ukraine.

The United States will not consider assistance to Ukraine for now, – The Hill.

It is reported that House Speaker Johnson refused to consider aid to Ukraine until the overall U.S. budget is passed. This could take at least another three weeks.

— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) March 20, 2024

The Netherlands:

Great news from the Netherlands!

The Netherlands is purchasing more than €150 million worth of ammunition for the F16s. The country is also making a contribution of more than €200 million to buy ISR drones for Ukraine.

We are grateful to our Dutch friends for their staunch… https://t.co/E7RPHwTtqo

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 20, 2024

Great news from the Netherlands!

The Netherlands is purchasing more than €150 million worth of ammunition for the F16s. The country is also making a contribution of more than €200 million to buy ISR drones for Ukraine.

We are grateful to our Dutch friends for their staunch support.
We appreciate your significant impact on Ukraine’s victory.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

➡️ We also secured a contract for new ISR-drones for about €200 million, together with partner countries. (2/2)#UDCG #StandWithUkraine

— Kajsa Ollongren (@DefensieMin) March 20, 2024

Lithuania:

Lithuania has allocated €35 million to procure ammunition for Ukraine within the Czech initiative.

We are grateful to our Lithuanian friends for their strong support! 
Ukraine appreciates your efforts to bring victory closer.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹@Lithuanian_MoD pic.twitter.com/m2o5UFWhLK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 20, 2024

Brussels:

Trump has done this, destabilized Europe, it is exactly what Putin tasked him to do. I hope the American press wakes up and stops treating this campaign as a normal one, it is not. It’s a foreign adversary attempt to overthrow our system of government.

— David Doak (@SouthPoint1000) March 19, 2024

Euractiv has the transcript of Charles Michel’s remarks:

Charles Michel is the President of the European Council.

It was 3:30 in the morning on 24 February 2022, when I was woken by the sound of my phone ringing. Countless intelligence briefings warning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine can never prepare you for the moment.

Hearing Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s grave voice over the phone say “Bombs are falling on us, it’s a full invasion,” I knew at that moment the entire post-World War II security arrangement had changed forever. The EU also has to change fast with it.

Within hours, EU leaders met in Brussels for an extraordinary summit to establish its response to the invasion. There was no need for words among us. The action was what was required. It’s a moment in history each of us EU leaders will remember forever. The decisions taken at the European Council meeting signalled the birth of a geopolitical EU.

The Kremlin’s miscalculation of an easy 3-day war against Ukraine, underestimating the EU’s collective unity, and Ukraine’s determination to defend its territory, shows the delusion at the heart of its leadership. The Kremlin does not care about its people’s welfare, the country’s prosperity, or peace in the region.

In contrast, Ukraine and its people have resisted, retaking seized territory, pushing the Russian navy from the Black Sea, and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces.

Two years on from the start of the war, it is now clear that Russia will not stop in Ukraine, just as it did not stop in Crimea ten years ago. Russia continues its destabilising tactics — in Moldova, Georgia, the South Caucasus, the Western Balkans and even further afield on the African continent.

Russia is a serious military threat to our European continent and global security. If we do not get the EU’s response right and do not give Ukraine enough support to stop Russia, we are next.

We must therefore be defence-ready and shift to a ‘war economy’ mode. It’s time to take responsibility for our security. We can no longer count on others or be at the mercy of election cycles in the US or elsewhere.

We must strengthen our military ability both for Ukraine and Europe, to defend the democratic world. A stronger EU will also contribute to a stronger NATO alliance and enhance our collective defence.

While we can be proud of how far we have come, there is still much we can and must do.

In a phone call two days after the war started, Zelensky pleaded for Europe to send arms. Together with High Representative Josep Borrell, we worked with EU leaders to deliver lethal weapons to Ukraine. This was a first in the history of our Union. That very weekend the first arms were arriving in Ukraine.

Europe’s commitment to Ukraine and its people has been unwavering at every European Council since then.

We have also stepped up on the military manufacturing front. Europe’s defence industry has ‘ramped up’ its production capacity by 50% since the start of the war, and we will double ammunition fabrication to over 2 million shells yearly, by the end of next year.

Meanwhile, across our continent, Kremlin propaganda in Europe attempts to convince our citizens that the war in Ukraine does not concern us, is draining our budgets, and dividing us. These are blatant lies. We must do more to assist Ukraine and strengthen our defence. We need to speak not only the language of diplomacy but also the language of power.

Russia will spend a reported 6% of GDP on defence this year, while the EU still spends on average less than the NATO goal of 2% of GDP.

For decades, Europe has not invested enough in our security and defence.

Today we face the biggest security challenge since the Second World War, we must therefore build our defence readiness. This will take a radical and irreversible shift in our thinking, towards a strategic security mindset.

We must prioritise Ukraine and spend more smarter in a less fragmented manner.

Supporting Ukraine

While we beef up our defence capacity, we must ensure Ukraine gets what it needs on the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers urgently need bullets, missiles and air defence systems to control the skies.

We must use the European budget to buy military equipment for Ukraine and let’s make use of the windfall profits from Russia’s immobilised assets to purchase arms for Ukraine.

Buy more together

We should aim to double what we buy from the European industry by 2030. This will give more predictability to our companies. Multi-year contracts will also incentivise them to expand their production capacity.

This will strengthen our defence sector, and enhance defence readiness, creating jobs and growth across the EU.

Make access to financing easier

Investments in security are expensive but without them, we cannot increase our defence production. We must facilitate ways for industry, to access public and private financing more easily.

Issuing European defence bonds to raise money to buy materials or invest in our industry, could be a powerful means to strengthen our technological innovation and industrial base.

We must consider expanding the European Investment Bank’s mandate and adapting the lending policy to allow us to do more to support our European defence industry, i.e. by changing the definition of dual-use goods.

EU leaders are convening again in Brussels two years after that pivotal European Council meeting. At this crucial moment in global history, we must be defence-ready, matching the urgency of the threat.

This fight requires strong leadership — to rally our people, businesses, and governments toward a new spirit of security and defence across our continent.

If we want peace, we must prepare for war.

Finally, Europe is ramping up -and Czechia is playing a major role in securing gap-filler capabilities. But 2024 will be a disheartening and tough slog nonetheless with US out of the hardware picture for an undetermined length of time https://t.co/aJoPYtePfY

— François Heisbourg (@FHeisbourg) March 19, 2024

Kosovo:

Kosovo aiding Ukraine with mortar rounds, trucks, and other equipment. #Kosovo #Ukraine https://t.co/Mi5kEbX9CO

— Petrit Selimi (@Petrit) March 19, 2024

Kosovo really punching above their weight class! Good for them!

France:

French Armed Forces Ministry says Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Naryshkin's claim that France is preparing up to 2,000 servicemembers to go to Ukraine is "mass disinformation" – https://t.co/Kb72NhVLz8

— Camilla Schick (@CamJourno) March 19, 2024

Russian intelligence accounts spreading easily verifiable disinformation get status as "content creators" on @X, and because X is a money bleeding venture, it's fair to say @elonmusk personallh funds Russian intelligence operations. pic.twitter.com/nIxiZWhHi0

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 19, 2024

What’s interesting is there are a number of expatriate Russians in the French Foreign Legion. If you recall, at the beginning of the re-invasion, there were reports of some of them trying to figure out how to get back to fight for Russia. I have always had a sneaking suspicion that one of the reason Prigozhin’s Wagner front groups were able to so successfully and efficiently subvert the French in the Sahel is because of the numbers of Russians in the Foreign Legion. Specifically that they functioned as a gigantic insider threat feeding intelligence and information back to the Russians.

More from Kharkiv:

This is right next to where the WCK warehouse in Kharkiv was operating from until last year (and where I spent a lot of time in 2022). This is a completely civilian and industrial area. Windows in the warehouse were all blown out, but everyone is okay there. https://t.co/Dpgt7Aq08X

— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 20, 2024

Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk said that Russia has dropped more than 3,500 UMPK glide bombs so far in 2024.https://t.co/oxVIYU75bc

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 18, 2024

From Militarnyi:

Since the beginning of 2024, the combat aviation of the Russian Federation has dropped more than 3,500 bombs on the positions of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

This was announced in an article of Ukrinform by Deputy Minister of Defense Lieutenant General Ivan Havriliuk.

According to him, this number is even more than the same period last year.

The Deputy Minister stressed that enemy aviation actively used guided bombs against Ukrainian positions on the border and frontline areas.

He noted that only since the beginning of this year (for 77 days), Russian aviation had dropped more than 3,500 bombs on Ukrainian positions, which was 16 times more than last year.

According to Lieutenant General, F-16 fighters have to turn the dominance of Russians in the air war, which will increase the capabilities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the ground.

But now, according to him, the situation is such that there are no F-16 yet, and the stocks of ammunition of certain nomenclatures are falling to a critical level.

“These and other factors make it difficult for the Defense Forces of Ukraine to perform tasks to repel the aggressor,” Havriliuk said.

At the same time, he stressed that there were high expectations for the adoption of important decisions for Ukraine on the provision of new packages of military aid from allies.

Since the beginning of 2023, Russians began to use guided bombs equipped with UMPK (unified gliding and correction module – ed.) kits.

This kit converts conventional “dumb bombs” into precision-guided munitions. Also, due to the wings that open after ascending from the hardpoint, the range of the bomb increases to tens of kilometers. Initially, Russians turned into adjusted 250 and 500-kilogram bombs. However, today they already equip such modules with FAB-1500 and RBK-500.

The Russian bombers and fighters can drop their bombs at a distance of 40-50 km from the front line. Under such conditions, today enemy aircraft are almost invulnerable to Ukrainian air defense or fighter aircraft. This is a problem that requires a systemic solution.

Lots of pictures of the Russian bombs at the link.

And here’s a visualization of what the Russian missile strikes look like over time.

Notably, Russia has launched relatively few missile strikes over the past month and their production capacity for ballistic and cruise missiles is more than 115 per month, according to Ukrainian officials. Graph from @konrad_muzyka. https://t.co/Nhd03NPi7t pic.twitter.com/ySnGJM9v5C

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 20, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

-2 russian IFVs
+2 spectacular explosions

The warriors from the 47th Mechanized Brigade burn the occupiers on the Avdiivka axis. pic.twitter.com/kaSmeNKDhf

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 20, 2024

Here’s longer video:

Destruction of two Russian BMP-3 on the Avdiivka front. By the 47th Brigade.https://t.co/eD4yW1RqBx pic.twitter.com/4CjbUpcOLn

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 20, 2024

Two Russian T-72B on the Avdiivka front.https://t.co/9IjWXbeEAT pic.twitter.com/yyRa9OlUPJ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 20, 2024

Not quite sure where this is:

K-2 combat group of the 54th Brigade released a video featuring a nearly complete destruction of an enemy armoured group. Footage shows how the engagement was controlled inside a command point.

Watch full video with subtitles: on YouTube: https://t.co/VNKTuFIAMm pic.twitter.com/oFJnFoaRSL

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 20, 2024

Or this:

As said, on the video the FPV drone with an automatic guidance system continues to fly to the target even after losing the signal with the operator due to work of electronic warfare system.
By the 60th and 63rd Brigades of Ukraine. https://t.co/W2s1ARS4Bs

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 20, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of the original tweet:

FPV FIGHTING WITH AUTO TARGETING!

Our drones have evolved and can now hit targets almost by themselves!

This video shows the destruction of a Russian tank using just such a drone 💥
This is the joint work of the 60th and 63rd mechanized brigades.

The drone flew to the target in conditions of active suppression by electronic warfare systems, but this did not prevent it. Because at the final stage he already did his job 😉

The technology is new, needs improvement and scaling. That’s why I’m asking you to make a donation for such drones as a gift to me.
They neutralize the work of the enemy’s EW in most cases and allow you to hit the enemy even more effectively!

The goal is 50 million hryvnias.
With these funds, we will purchase 1,300+ such drones and invest in the technology itself.
These will be both FPV quadcopters and airplanes. Both day and night.

And yes, this is not the first such decision in Ukraine. But one of the first successful applications.

And the enemy, unfortunately, also has similar developments.
The Russians have been testing a similar technology for more than a month, so we should invest all the more in development.
And when the product is completely ready, we will involve the state in procurement.
To scale even more.

Monobank https://send.monobank.ua/jar/5eBaMvoanU

Bank card 5375411215349155
Private 5168745030910761
PayPal [email protected]

Driven away!

Engels air base in Russia:

Engels, home to strategic bomber military airbase in Russia was attacked by drones tonight. Fuel, logistics and military airfields—put it on repeat. pic.twitter.com/8aCzTjWndK

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 20, 2024

This night there was a reported drone attack attempt and air defence activity on the territory of Russian military airfield in Engels, 600km from the front. pic.twitter.com/9rkrozHerv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 20, 2024

Pobedobesie/the cult of Victory in Russia:

Rus. praporshik Danil Shargan twice served in the war in Ukraine, as part of the 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces and the Wagner PMC, and now works as an instructor in the so-called “military-patriotic center.” He instructs children to kill Ukrainians. pic.twitter.com/1rq3z7tYge

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 20, 2024

The “reeducation” of Ukrainian children stolen by the Russians is adjacent to the pobedobesie educational regime.

Kremlin kidnaps them to erase their identities. pic.twitter.com/k9jYPY4tsh

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) March 19, 2024

NPR has the latest on Russia’s genocidal theft of Ukrainian children:

Ukraine says more than 19,000 children have been illegally taken by Russia since the war began. NPR’s Leila Fadel speaks with two teenagers who were abducted from Ukraine.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

When Russia invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago now, it didn’t just take territory. It separated thousands of Ukrainian children from the only home they’ve ever known, relocating them to Russian-occupied territory or to Russia itself. Most of those children have not returned. Some who have are young adults now, and they’re speaking out.

Where were you when the invasion began?

KSENIA KOLDIN: (Through interpreter) I was living in a foster family in the town of Vovchansk, which is in Kharkiv Oblast, living there with my younger brother. I was finishing school the last year before you go to university, and I was 17 years old at the moment.

ROSTISLAV LAVROV: (Through interpreter) When the war started, straight away, my grandma died, and then my mother, she was taken by the Russian military to some sort of medical facility, a facility they wouldn’t tell me what was it.

FADEL: How old were you?

LAVROV: (Through interpreter) I was 16 years old. So I was absolutely alone after that moment that my mother was taken.

FADEL: That’s Rostislav Lavrov, who was moved to Russian-occupied Crimea, with Ksenia Koldin, who was taken to Russia and separated from her brother. I caught up with them after their testimony about this to U.S. lawmakers. At least 19,000 children are still gone, according to Ukrainian officials, but the real number is believed to be much higher. They’re sent to Russian foster families, technical schools, military training and so-called summer camps with the intention of turning them into Russian citizens. Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Andriy Kostin, testified via video recording to that same group of bipartisan lawmakers.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

ANDRIY KOSTIN: We are talking about the next generation of Ukrainians. We are talking about the fate of each and every child, some being as young as 1 year old, who will grow up not knowing who they are.

FADEL: He, along with other international officials, sounded the alarm about Russia’s determination to brainwash these kids into hating Ukraine. Rostislav Lavrov is living proof. He may be 18 right now, but he still has the wonder of a child on this visit to D.C.

LAVROV: (Through interpreter) The road was very difficult, but when I’m actually here, it’s like you’re in a movie.

FADEL: Lavrov is from a village in southeast Ukraine. When the Russian military occupied, they took his mom. Months later, they came for him, sent him to Russian-occupied Crimea. There, he refused all efforts to indoctrinate him.

LAVROV: (Through interpreter) So every morning, I would listen to the Russian anthem. We were told that Ukraine is not going to exist anymore, that you are not needed anywhere. You’re – nobody waits you anywhere back home. And then we were told, like, you need to leave, and you need to go to a different place where you’re going to study.

FADEL: How long, total, were you kidnapped?

LAVROV: (Through interpreter) Almost exactly a year, like, up to a day.

FADEL: His captors confined him to a small cell when he refused to sing the Russian national anthem.

LAVROV: (Through interpreter) It’s 6 by 6 feet. There’s a small balcony with grates on it. There’s a small wardrobe. There’s a toilet. You’re not allowed to use the phone. You’re not allowed to go anywhere.

FADEL: Russian authorities tried to erase his past. They replaced his Ukrainian birth certificate with a Russian one, but he never gave up on getting home. A friend’s mom and the charity Save Ukraine helped him. Mykola Kuleba of Save Ukraine has located and rescued hundreds of Ukrainian children and teens.

MYKOLA KULEBA: We need everything. We need rescue more children. We need provide recovery for these kids – housing, food, health. These kids received traumas, and we have to help. We have to recover them and reintegrate into Ukrainian community and provide an educational program.

FADEL: And so that takes months, years.

KULEBA: Yeah. It’s a lot of time.

FADEL: Yeah.

KULEBA: That’s why Ukraine asked United States provide the support, because it’s very expensive, and our child welfare system collapsed because of war.

FADEL: Ksenia Koldin was also rescued by Save Ukraine. She was determined to return home with her brother. He was sent to what Russians called a rest and recreation camp.

KOLDIN: (Through interpreter) The promised two, three weeks that we were told that we going to get separated for we, were actually separated for 900 miles away from each other.

FADEL: Wow.

KOLDIN: And it turned out to be nine months.

FADEL: How old is your brother?

KOLDIN: (Through interpreter) He’s 12 now.

FADEL: Oh, my gosh. So that must have been really difficult, separating from your little brother like that.

KOLDIN: (Through interpreter) I must say, those were the worst nine months of my life.

FADEL: She says at the school where she was forced to study, they tried to make her take Russian citizenship.

KOLDIN: (Through interpreter) We were brainwashed into saying that if Russia wouldn’t have invaded, then Ukraine would have invaded first.

FADEL: What was going through your mind?

KOLDIN: (Through interpreter) So I would just not say anything. I would just sit thinking to myself, glory to Ukraine. My country is going to prevail and win. Yeah, you can say whatever.

FADEL: She told me she was scared that her brother was starting to believe. Some similar things he’d been placed with a Russian family. And the foster mother?

KOLDIN: (Through interpreter) She kept saying like, there’s no future in Ukraine. There’s – it’s run by Nazis. This family was actually very pro-Russian. They were actually propagating on him this propaganda. And when they realized that I was on my way to get him, they actually shut down all the communication with me. So I would tell him that he’s the only person, really, of my relatives. I would not promise him anything about what’s going to be in Ukraine, like, but I would tell him that if we’re going to be together, it’ll be all right. Part of me wanted to cry, but I actually did not let myself. All of this just worked because he said, yes, let’s come back to Ukraine.

FADEL: Ksenia Koldin got her wish. They returned home together. Sitting next to her, I asked Rostislav Lavrov how he was doing after being rescued.

LAVROV: (Through interpreter) So I, myself, is all right. I would want my mother to come back to Ukraine and be healthy.

FADEL: Do you have any news of her?

LAVROV: Nyet.

FADEL: He’s still waiting. They’re sharing their stories to remind the world that other Ukrainians, and most urgently, the more than 19,000 children who were taken, still need help. And now Russia is fast-tracking citizenships for those forced to Russia or occupied territories. Ukrainians say it’s to erase any documentation of their true identities.

This is most likely somewhere in Belgorod Oblast:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Incredible footage shows imperial forces unsuccessfully assaulting a building with the Free Russia Army fighters inside.https://t.co/0P6xLJ3xfG pic.twitter.com/vVgZzS66bQ

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 20, 2024

ALL CLEAR!!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material.

Legends. pic.twitter.com/t7bWVKBNMa

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) March 20, 2024

@natemook and the HachikoUA team install feeding stations in frontline areas of 🇺🇦 and bring food and supplies to the folks who look after the cats and dogs. 😻

🎟️Gift a Lucky $5 to put more kibble in the feeders! ☘️

PP https://t.co/jGbOOowJsE

Follow Hachiko Foundation on IG pic.twitter.com/4K5BdeUjLs

— Jolie Mack 🇨🇦🇺🇦 (@joliemackdotcom) March 17, 2024

We would be honored if a smart dog joins us Daunty! The Hachiko foundation also takes care of dogs 😉 pic.twitter.com/x5C4iweHpa

— EllenB 🎗️ (@4EverBraveFella) March 18, 2024

Today, another “Ramstein” took place; there will be new defense packages, including scarce artillery – address by the President

19 March 2024 – 21:57

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, another “Ramstein” took place – a meeting of countries that support our defense, our protection against Russian terror. This was a productive meeting, and there are results. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov took part in it. I am waiting for his detailed report. I can say a few things now. There will be new defense packages, including scarce artillery. New states are joining the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition – thank you all. Of course, the priority for air defense, electronic warfare and drones remains unchanged. I am grateful to all the countries that are genuinely working to give appropriate substance to this priority of ours. Ukrainian drones are already yielding solid results, and we need to significantly boost the international component of cooperation. The frontline must feel our strengthening in terms of drones. I am grateful to all the “Ramstein” participants and to the United States, to Secretary Austin for leadership.

I would also like to recognize Germany today for the announced defense package of half a billion euros. It includes artillery and armored vehicles. We greatly appreciate the German contribution to the protection of Ukrainian lives and our independence.

I held a meeting on our international activities in March and April. New security agreements with partners are being prepared for signing, and new legal steps will be taken to bring Russian war criminals to justice. It is important that this movement – the movement for justice – has constant momentum, constant strengthening. I am grateful to everyone in the team of our state and in all international institutions who are working for this – for justice. The Russian state, its leadership, and every war criminal must be held accountable for everything they do, and in particular, they must be held accountable in the legal sphere. The world needs to see how international justice works in response to aggression and terror. I’ll give you just one example right now: Sumy region that borders Russian territory. There are constant Russian attempts to bring in a subversive group, constant terrorist attacks and shelling. The Russian army is trying to burn our border villages to the ground. From the beginning of March to the present day, Russian aviation has dropped almost 200 guided bombs on the communities of Sumy region alone. Targeting villages, cities, and civilian infrastructure. The obvious need for Ukraine is to bolster our air defense in such a way as to make this terror impossible. In Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and southern regions. Wherever it is needed. Our partners have the appropriate systems. We need to expedite the F-16 program as much as possible too. I thank everyone who helps. It is important for the great countries that have the necessary weapons to be truly great in protecting lives – not to keep these weapons in depots somewhere, but to make sure that Patriots and everything else actually works to save lives.

Today I would like to recognize the warriors of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. All those who destroy Russian saboteurs, destroy their drones, and help people in the border communities of Ukraine. In particular, I would like to recognize the warriors of the Sumy detachment. Chief Sergeant Anton Sheremet, who, together with his brothers-in-arms, recently repelled an attack by a Russian subversive group. Thank you for your bravery! Senior Sergeant Yurii Vasyliev and Captain Ruslan Kravchenko – thank you guys for helping the locals during the shelling from the territory of Russia. Also, the Chernihiv border guard detachment – Sergeant Volodymyr Ihnatenko and Senior Sergeant Yurii Pavlenko. The guys are countering Russian drones and protecting our people from the occupiers’ attacks. Also, the Kharkiv border guard detachment – Senior Soldier Vladyslav Baidukov and Chief Sergeant Vladyslav Hurenko. Thank you guys for your efficiency! I would also like to mention the border guards of the Steel Frontier Offensive Guard Brigade, who, together with other units of the Defense Forces, are fighting at the front and protecting our state border. Senior Soldier Roman Dubovskyi and Sergeants Oleh Kyslyi and Vladyslav Yakymenko, as well as Staff Sergeant Yevhen Doroshenko, especially deserve our gratitude this week. Thank you, warriors, and all your brothers-in-arms!

And one more thing. Today I spoke with President of the European Council Charles Michel. We talked about defense support for our country and about relations with the European Union and its member states. We are preparing for a meeting of the European Council. And for important European decisions this year. In particular, economic ones, including the continuation of trade liberalization between Ukraine and the European Union, which is one of the vital elements of our resilience in the time of defense against Russian aggression. We are also preparing political decisions. In particular, it is crucial for us in Ukraine and for the whole of Europe that real negotiations on Ukraine’s membership begin in June, without delay. This will send the right political signal that Europe is strong enough to resist Russian pressure.

Thank you to everyone in the world who helps us! Glory to all our people who fight and work for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky:

"Technologies and manufacturability are the keys to our edge over the enemy. Unmanned systems are of the essence here, so my priority is developing their use…

We're looking for asymmetric solutions to ensure…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 19, 2024

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky:

“Technologies and manufacturability are the keys to our edge over the enemy. Unmanned systems are of the essence here, so my priority is developing their use…

We’re looking for asymmetric solutions to ensure intangible advantage over a quantitatively superior adversary.”

Canada steps up!

Canada will provide over $40 million to purchase large-caliber ammunition rounds for Ukraine within Czech initiative.

In addition, Minister @BillBlair announced that Canada will be donating a package of night vision devices, worth approximately $7.5 million. The donation will be… https://t.co/ZOyjknXpb0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

Canada will provide over $40 million to purchase large-caliber ammunition rounds for Ukraine within Czech initiative.

In addition, Minister @BillBlair announced that Canada will be donating a package of night vision devices, worth approximately $7.5 million. The donation will be sourced from Canadian company Twenty20 Insight Inc.

We are grateful to our Canadian friends for their steadfast support. Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦

Here’s the full press release from the government of Canada:

Minister Blair announces $40 million to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition at the 20th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group

News release

March 19, 2024 – Ottawa, Ontario – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, participated via videoconference in the 20th Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, hosted by United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III. The meeting brought together representatives from approximately 50 countries, who reaffirmed their commitment to providing Ukraine with the critical military aid that it needs.

At the meeting, Minister Blair announced that Canada is committing over $40 million to Czechia’s initiative to purchase large-calibre ammunition rounds for Ukraine. This will enable the delivery of several thousand rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. This commitment follows last month’s signing of the Canada-Czechia Defence Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding, which establishes a framework for defence cooperation between Canada and Czechia, including in the area of support for Ukraine.

In addition, Minister Blair announced that Canada will be donating a package of night vision devices to assist Ukrainian Armed Forces with nighttime operations. This donation, worth approximately $7.5 million, will be sourced from Canadian company Twenty20 Insight Inc.

Minister Blair also confirmed that Canada has officially joined the UDCG’s Drone Capability Coalition co-led by Latvia and the United Kingdom, as Canada committed earlier this month. Among other things, this Coalition brings together UDCG members working to find ways to scale up drone production with the collective goal of delivering one million drones to Ukraine. Canada’s initial contribution includes more than 800 drones from Teledyne, as announced recently by Minister Blair. The first delivery is expected to arrive in Ukraine this spring.

The donations announced today demonstrate Canada’s ongoing commitment to providing Ukrainians with the critical and longer-term military aid that they need to defend their country. Canada’s steadfast support for Ukraine includes commitments made in the historic Agreement on Security Cooperation between Canada and Ukraine, signed last month by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv.

Quotes

“During our discussions, Ukrainian officials have been clear that they need more artillery ammunition, rapidly. As we advance work to increase the domestic production of 155 mm with our Canadian industry partners, we are also committed to meeting Ukraine’s urgent needs as quickly as possible. By supporting Czechia’s initiative to donate large volumes of artillery munitions to Ukraine, Canada is stepping up to meet one of Ukraine’s most pressing defensive requirements. Now and for the long term, Canada stands with Ukraine.”

The Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence

Quick facts

• The UDCG was created by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in April 2022 for allies and partners to synchronize donations, consult, and coordinate military assistance to Ukraine, and build the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Regularly convening at the ministerial level, the UDCG now brings together more than 50 countries.
• Since February 2022, Canada has committed over $13.3 billion in funding to support Ukraine. This includes $4 billion in military assistance, such as M777 howitzers, Leopard 2 main battle tanks, armoured combat support vehicles, hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition, hundreds of drones, and more.
• Canada has already donated approximately 40,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine, sourced from both the Canadian Armed Forces’ stocks and from purchases through the United States government.
• Since the launch of Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian Armed Forces’ (CAF) mission for military training and capacity building in support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Canada has trained approximately 40,000 members of the AFU. Canada has extended this mission until March 2026, providing significant capacity for the CAF to respond to Ukraine’s urgent training needs.
• More than 300 CAF members are deployed on Operation UNIFIER in various roles, such as the provision and coordination of training, national command support, and the facilitation and delivery of military donations in coordination with Allies and partners.
• Since 2022, Canada has three CC-130J Hercules tactical airlift aircraft, alongside a detachment of approximately 60 CAF personnel, conducting operations from a hub based out of Prestwick, Scotland. The detachment has delivered over fifteen million pounds of aid to Ukraine, from Canada and from our Allies and partners.
• In recent months, the UDCG has launched various Capability Coalitions which involve various nations working together to reinforce Ukraine’s capabilities in particular areas. Canada is part of the Air Force Capability Coalition, the Armour Capability Coalition, and now, the Drone Capability Coalition.

Luxembourg:

Thank you, Luxembourg, for your support!
Our strength is in unity 🇺🇦🤝🇱🇺 https://t.co/pQMI8hcJ3M

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

Germany:

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth almost 500 million euros. The package includes ammunition from Bundeswehr stocks, the Czech initiative, and contracts with industry.
We are grateful to our German friends for their… https://t.co/9s6Q5Tg9ct

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth almost 500 million euros. The package includes ammunition from Bundeswehr stocks, the Czech initiative, and contracts with industry.
We are grateful to our German friends for their steadfast support!
Together, to victory!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪

Finland:

Finland will provide €30 million to procure artillery shells for Ukraine within the Czech initiative.

We are grateful to our Finnish partners for this important decision and unwavering support. Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇫🇮@anttihakkanen @DefenceFinland pic.twitter.com/ZxyTVnwsHh

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

The US:

These graphics are designed to inform the debate on how the battlefield could degrade if current challenges are not addressed soon.

They are not traditional warning products, but can be used to inform that process. (2/4)

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) March 19, 2024

These signposts are not foregone conclusions. Conditions can stabilize and improve with the near-term approval and dissemination of critical ammunition from the west, and additional manpower. Separate threads on the ground and air campaigns will follow. (4/4) pic.twitter.com/BIJ67IEQrT

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) March 19, 2024

Here are the full size infographics:

I’ve got plenty to say, but I’m just going to bite my tongue and seethe.

Michael Kofman, now also at the Carnegie Endowment, provides his assessment of where things stand in Ukraine as a result of a recent fact finding trip. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App and the last two tweets from the thread:

Some brief thoughts following a recent field study trip to Ukraine. The current situation is difficult, but UA is working to stabilize the front. Much depends on whether the US provides support, and UA effectively addresses its manpower issues in the coming months. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 19, 2024

The main challenges are manpower, fortifications, and ammunition. These are interrelated problems. There is also the issue of sustainment, which needs to shift towards localization of maintenance, and spare parts production for a diverse park of Western equipment. 2/ 

Mobilization requires resourcing. Western assistance and UA manpower issues are connected. UA needs funding and training support. However, the lead times to resolve manpower issues are significantly greater than what it will take to ship ammo if the supplemental is passed. 3/ 

Ukraine needs more infantry in particular, which is not difficult to equip. Battalions end up with few platoons of viable infantry, unable to execute key tasks. Infantry is necessary not just for assault, but to hold the defensive lines and entrenchments which are being built. 4/ 

Mobilization is not just about changing policies on who is drafted or finding more manpower. It is about addressing terms of service, demobilization, and a host of other issues to stabilize the force. Right now, finding manpower within the force is at best a stopgap measure. 5/ 

A plan to build nationwide fortifications is being implemented, with a vision of multiple lines and a system of defensive positions/fortified points. The immediate challenge is weak secondary positions behind the forward lines being held by troops at the front. 6/ 

The AFU is short on artillery ammo & barrels are a growing issue. This is where Western material assistance remains essential. As Congress debates the supplemental, a combination of ammunition deficits and manpower issues, are resulting in Russian gains. 7/ 

At this point Russia’s fires advantage of 5:1 to 6:1 is significant, but not decisive. The growing problem is a higher rate of glide bomb employment by the Russian VKS, averaging 30-40 per day on parts of the front and from increasingly longer ranges (from 40-55km to 60km+). 8/ 

Glide bombs are fairly inaccurate, but destructive. They are not a form of close air support. However, they suppress units, destroy buildings, and fortifications. One of the reasons the AFU was pressed from Avdiivka was the concentrated volume of UMPK strikes by Russian VKS. 9/ 

In 2023, Russia was able to replace its losses, and generate additional combat formations. This means they likely recruited several hundred thousand troops. Though RF has not generated enough to rotate out those initially mobilized in 2022, this was not a priority for Moscow. 10/ 

The primary limiting factor for Russia is not ammunition or manpower, but likely equipment, and capacity to employ forces at scale (quality). Russian forces can ill afford to throw away an army’s worth of equipment for an offensive like Avdiivka given their replacement rate. 11/ 

Most of the Russian equipment comes out of storage, slowly eating through its Soviet legacy. While new production is increasing, it is doubtfully more than 20% of replacements. Hence, Russian forces could face growing equipment challenges in 2025-2026 (depending on losses). 12/ 

Russian forces in some cases are employing T-54/55s, or MT-LBs, for battle taxis to deploy troops in assaults due to a lack of BMPs or more suitable vehicles. This doesn’t mean the Russian mil will run out of AFVs anytime soon, but it is illustrative of their constraints. 13/ 

Conserving equipment for RF means a destruction-centered approach, leveraging fires advantage and pursuing small group (assault group) infantry assaults. This yields incremental gains, but unlikely to generate major breakthroughs (as UA’s own offensive in 2023 demonstrated). 14/ 

With such tactics Russian forces have been unable to breakthrough in areas where they should be able to advance more easily, like the Robotyne salient south of Orikhiv. But larger offensives, akin to the initial Avdiivka assault, are likely coming this summer and in the fall. 15/ 

Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian long-range drones is improving, based on a network of sensors, EW systems, and mobile defense groups which now intercept over 40% of such strikes. Cheap forms of strike are steadily being countered by cheap forms of intercept. 16/ 

Across parts of the front Ukrainian forces fight in a more integrated fashion, combining electronic recon systems, EW, with drone units, in a better synchronized, and information driven approach. In elite units this forms a system. (Example: Madyar’s drone unit) 17/

Ukraine is scaling up production of FPV drones, to exceed 1M this year. But basic FPVs are readily countered by EW. The contest is therefore increasingly moving from quantitative to qualitative dimensions. Drone units are differentiated by skill and integration. 18/ 

At this stage, strike drones offer an offset for artillery ammo deficits (particularly in defensive operations), but are not a replacement for the volume of fire, area of effect, and suppression artillery delivers. Elite unit performance is not reflective of the entire front. 19/ 

With Western support, a stabilized AFU could hold this year against Russian offensives. This presumes fortifications are established (currently in progress), UA has funding + ammo support, and the manpower problem is addressed by Kyiv in the coming months. 20/ 

An expanded strike campaign, which I argued with colleagues should be part of the strategy for 2024, is a cost effective way to create challenges for the Russian state. Strikes against Russian energy infrastructure are one example of such a campaign. 21/

Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine’s Advantage in 2024 – War on the RocksThis winter, Ukraine’s military is visibly running on fumes, as recent reporting shows M109 Paladin artillery outside Bakhmut receiving only smoke shellshttps://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/

Western industrial capacity is increasing. Ukraine’s commercial maritime traffic has picked up significantly. If Ukraine can hold through 2024, Russia’s current advantage in this war does not necessarily increase, or become decisive, but instead can decrease over time. 22/

If you're interested in a much deeper discussion of these topics, please have a listen to the recent Russia Contingency with @RALee85 https://t.co/KpKA2ggmQj and the most recent one released with Ryan Evans (open to all) https://t.co/ZB8QnsRDyu

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 19, 2024

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News decided to do an Aussie version of Cletis safari with the Russian occupiers in Ukraine:

By summer 2022 they were dooming about Severodonetsk, and that's when the "We need peace at all costs" started to appear. Then Kharkiv and Kherson happened.

— SK Media🇺🇦 (@SpaghettiKozak) March 19, 2024

And that leads to this. No matter how much the media pretends it understands russian disinfo, they allowed themselves to be duped into producing laundered propaganda. It'll get worse.

— SK Media🇺🇦 (@SpaghettiKozak) March 19, 2024

As a purveyor of Russian channels, I can confidently say you don’t need “unprecedented access” to their trenches to figure out the only thing they talk about is robbing, threatening, conquering, and hating absolutely anyone who doesn’t share their authoritarianism. https://t.co/xssvWkstbc

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 19, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

Another day on the Zaporizhzhia axis.
One of the @SOF_UKR units damaged/ destroyed:
* a 2S7 Pion self-propelled 203 mm cannon;
* a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer;
* two D-30 122-mm howitzers;
* an APC and five units of automotive equipment.
This is what we call a job well… pic.twitter.com/ezpa85mN7w

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2024

Another day on the Zaporizhzhia axis.
One of the
@SOF_UKR
units damaged/ destroyed:
* a 2S7 Pion self-propelled 203 mm cannon;
* a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer;
* two D-30 122-mm howitzers;
* an APC and five units of automotive equipment.
This is what we call a job well done.

Tatarigami has some thoughts on the Ukrainian attacks into Russia:

When discussing strategies for achieving victory, I believe one of the most pragmatic approaches for Ukraine lies in destabilizing Russia's power base, thereby prompting a shift by making this war unprofitable.

Historically, few rulers have maintained power solely through their…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 19, 2024

When discussing strategies for achieving victory, I believe one of the most pragmatic approaches for Ukraine lies in destabilizing Russia’s power base, thereby prompting a shift by making this war unprofitable.

Historically, few rulers have maintained power solely through their own efforts, they rely heavily on the support of elites consensus. Such unwritten agreement exists between leaders and elites, wherein those with influence and resources bolster the regime in exchange for obtaining or preserving their own wealth and privileges.

Despite facing Western sanctions, Putin’s loyal elites have largely managed to maintain the status quo, with some even increasing their wealth. This perpetuates an unofficial agreement where both sides remain content overall.

In my view, the most effective means of altering this dynamic is to target Russia’s key economic assets, a tactic Ukraine partially has begun to employ successfully by attacking oil refineries.

This approach not only disrupts military logistics but also undermines the economic interests of those profiting most from the oil trade.

Intensifying the destruction of strategic assets that yield substantial profits for their owners serves as a potent signal that war is detrimental to business interests. As Ukraine enhances its long-range drone and potentially missile capabilities, the prospect of losing assets, contracts, and facing elevated insurance costs will inevitably lead to conclusion that war is an unprofitable venture for Russia, thereby compelling them to reconsider their stance in future negotiations, if not prompting a shift in power.

The will of the general populace in Russia hold little sway as long as key centers like Moscow and the elites within them can sustain their lifestyle without feeling the toll of war. While this may cause disruptions in global market prices and impact the global economy, in a scenario where Ukraine lacks sufficient aid to decisively end the war in its favor, I see few other practical alternatives.

Belgorod:

Kozinka, Belgorod Oblast, SMO zone, is not habitable anymore. pic.twitter.com/1JKZfozHzy

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 19, 2024

Belgorod, morning of 19 March. Not sure what the authorities are thinking, the city must be evacuated. pic.twitter.com/NM6rZBWQWP

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 19, 2024

Here’s some more info on the Ukrainian aligned Russian legions that have been raiding over the border.

Russian Volunteer Corps ambushes an imperial combat vehicle in Kozinka. pic.twitter.com/1EH0B1s5Cb

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 19, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos. Here’s some adjacent material.

For Caturday, I want to share a video sent to me by my friend Sergiy, who was murdered yesterday in the Russian missile attacks on Odesa.

Sergiy was just as kind to animals as he was to people. This is Rudyk 😺 who lives at Odesa City Hall. pic.twitter.com/5jj1tQJsBU

— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 16, 2024

Today's Ukrainian cat—look at this handsome hunk. His name is Claudie and he's at the @catsonmars_ua shelter being taken care of by Uncle Eugene @eugenehmg. pic.twitter.com/PfkofiUdI8

— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) March 19, 2024

Today’s Ukrainian cat—rescued in Sloviansk by Vladimir and Sergiy, two really good guys. pic.twitter.com/FxoxVDzuxC

— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) March 18, 2024

"How are you doing? Scared? Me too. That's okay…"

Ukrainian Warrior of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade showed an archive video from Avdiivka.

In the midst of fierce fighting, the defender did not forget about a frightened, hungry dog hiding in a house destroyed by shelling. pic.twitter.com/3lCgcmKgs9

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 18, 2024

Thanks for the photo and feedback 😍

— Catyunya (@Catyunya_) March 19, 2024

Crufts 2024: Ukrainian refugee dog Adriana wins award https://t.co/JqmIkQRuos

— ChicMik (@ChyMik) March 17, 2024

From the BBC:

The owner of a dog rehomed from Ukraine and that has won a top prize at Crufts has said she “lives life to the full”.

Cocker spaniel Adriana was rescued two years ago and won the Best of Breed award at this year’s dog show.

Adriana’s owner Michael Masters, 65, from Somerset, helped her beat more than 400 other spaniels to win the title in Birmingham.

Mr Masters said he was worried she would get “spooked” by the clapping and it was a “big achievement”.

Adriana was rescued from her home in Ukraine when she was seven-months-old, after the country was invaded by Russia.

She spent time being cared for in Poland and Germany after her owner sent her away for her own safety.

Mr Masters, who works as a minibus driver, brought her over to the UK to give her a new life.

“Adriana was being pushed from pillar to post before I paid for her to come over, she arrived at eight-months-old.

“Despite her turbulent youth, Adriana is a very happy little dog who lives life to the full,” Mr Masters added.

Open thread!

This year we must and will reach the maximum level of Ukrainian defense production throughout the entire period of independence – address by the President of Ukraine

18 March 2024 – 19:54

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

I held a meeting of the Staff. There was a report by the Commander-in-Chief on the main areas of operations. Kupyansk direction, our directions in Donetsk region, southern directions. There was an analysis of the dynamics in terms of ammunition – logistics in the army has become significantly more efficient. There were reports from the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Strategic Industries on contracts for the supply of weapons and ammunition from both partner countries and domestic manufacturers. This year we must and will reach the maximum level of Ukrainian defense production throughout the entire period of independence. And every year we will consistently expand this potential, which is an obvious strategic perspective for Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who contributes to this, giving all their energy, and to everyone who truly helps – every leader, every state, every company in the world that stands with Ukraine. The Staff also listened to the government’s report on the construction of fortifications – all resources are provided.

A few things today about our communication with partners. I spoke with the President-elect of Indonesia. We appreciate the relations that have already been achieved between our countries. It was in Indonesia that the Ukrainian Peace Formula was first presented. And since then, the Peace Formula has gradually become global, bringing together the world’s majority. States and leaders from all continents have already joined the work on the Formula, and we are now preparing the first inaugural Global Peace Summit. And today I invited Indonesia to participate in it. Senator Lindsey Graham, a representative of the Republican Party, visited Ukraine today. We talked, among other things, about the importance of freedom and democracy winning now, in this war, here in Ukraine, because otherwise Russian aggression and chaos will spread around the world. I informed the Senator about the situation on the battlefield and the key needs of our Defense Forces. The needs are quite obvious. Patriots, ATACMS, F-16s. And, of course, artillery. We discussed further cooperation and support for Ukraine. All our actions must be far-sighted, long-range, and as effective as possible to enable all free nations to live on in freedom and security. I am grateful to everyone in the United States who feels as we do that freedom must always prevail.

Today I would also like to thank the leadership of the European Union and all member states for establishing a new Fund to assist Ukraine within the European Peace Facility. The amount is 5 billion euros, which will be used to support our defense efforts this year. We also expect this Fund to become part of a general security agreement between Ukraine and the European Union.

I am grateful to all our people who fight and work for Ukraine and Ukrainians, who support each of our cities and communities. And especially to those who are currently having the hardest times: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and our Odesa. We are doing our best to give Ukraine and each of our regions more protection and more strength. I thank everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

This guy!

he voted against the supplemental with aid for Ukraine last month https://t.co/Infvp3AcVd

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 18, 2024

This is a problem:

I can confirm that I've observed evidence of Russians having access to Western satellite imagery, including non-commercial images. It wasn't just one, but multiple providers of satellite imagery. https://t.co/VauuTRqXxG

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 18, 2024

From The Atlantic:

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky got unusually testy over the failure of the United States to deliver anti-missile and anti-drone systems. On March 2, a strike in Odesa had killed 12 people, five of them children. “The world has enough missile-defense systems,” he said. Debates over funding have kept those systems from being delivered. “Delaying the supply of weapons to Ukraine, missile-defense systems to protect our people, leads, unfortunately, to such losses.”

Others in Ukraine’s government, however, have expressed an even deeper frustration. What if Americans, in addition to not sending defensive assistance to Ukraine, are sending offensive assistance to Russia? A Ukrainian military source told me he believes that Russia’s long-range strikes, by cruise missiles that are among the most costly weapons in its nonnuclear arsenal, are aimed using satellite imagery provided by U.S. companies. He says the sequence is clear: A satellite snaps pictures of a site, then some days or weeks later a missile lands. Sometimes another satellite is sent to capture additional images afterward, perhaps to check the extent of the damage. “The number of coincidences, where the images are followed by strikes, is too high to be random,” the source told me. (I agreed not to name him because he is not authorized to speak publicly.)

Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence. But the suspicious cases have added up, and because many satellite-imagery companies offer a backlist of archived images, marked with dates and coordinates, it’s possible to browse tens of thousands of images taken of Ukraine and notice suggestive patterns. In the week before April 2, 2022, about a month after Russia’s initial invasion, images of a remote airfield outside Myrhorod, Ukraine, were requested from American companies at least nine times. Myrhorod is not a particularly interesting place, apart from that airfield. On April 2, missiles landed there. In the week that followed, someone asked for images of the airfield again. Satellite imaging has preceded strikes in urban areas as well: In Lviv, just before March 26, 2022, someone tasked a satellite with looking at a factory used for military-armor production. It, too, was struck. In late January of this year, someone commissioned a commercial-satellite company to take fresh images of Kyiv, just before the city was hit by a missile barrage.

There are hundreds of such cases. The Ukrainians say they monitor flyovers by Russia’s own satellites. But until recently, they assumed that the satellites of allies would not be available for Russia’s advantage. “Before about six months ago, we couldn’t imagine that private companies would be selling satellite imagery in sensitive areas,” the Ukrainian military official told me. But “it has become hard to believe that [these coincidences] are random.” Russian satellite capabilities are limited, and Ukraine’s are too. Anyone who has seen the social-media footage of ragtag infantrymen huddled in trenches is aware that this war is being fought by two poor countries. But with subterfuge, even poor countries can try to rent the services of rich ones—or, more precisely, the services of the private companies that operate within the rich ones’ borders.

Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Kateryna Chernohorenko, sent me a statement noting that U.S. satellite companies have supported Ukraine. But she said that her ministry’s experts suspect that Russia “purchases satellite imagery through third-party companies” that do business with Western satellite-imagery companies, and that these images “could be used in armed aggression against Ukraine.”

Ordering imagery from these companies is simpler than you might think. Stale, blurry images are free on Google Maps. Fresh, crisp imagery of something you may or may not wish to blow to smithereens costs a little more. A site called spymesat.com tracks various companies’ satellites and will give a cost estimate for a brand-new image taken the next time one of them passes over the location you choose. In the business, ordering a satellite to take an image is called “tasking.” The companies offer astonishingly fast turnaround times, at costs in the low thousands of dollars. Faster turnaround and higher resolution raise the cost. I zoomed in on the apartment where I stayed in Odesa early in the war, and the site told me that a U.S. company would let me task its satellite for $1,200 when it passed in just a few hours. If I went there now and painted BOMB ME in huge letters on the roof, the paint would still be wet for its close-up.

For even less, one can order archival imagery from Ukraine—some of it very recent, and of militarily significant areas. The city of Zaporizhzhia is about an hour’s drive from the front line. An Atlantic staffer requested a recent satellite photo of that city from a reseller that works with Planet, a San Francisco-based commercial satellite company. The staffer gave the reseller a credit-card number and a name, and received a high-resolution image just minutes later.

Some targets are stationary: You can’t move an air base. But even those are worth monitoring persistently, sometimes weeks or even months before an intended attack. A cruise missile costs about $1 million, so a kopeck-pinching government would happily pay just a few thousand dollars for recent evidence of how a target is being used, what’s there, and what time of day is optimal for maximum damage. Watching a parking lot outside a factory or barracks can tell you when the building is full and when it is empty. A strike on a full building kills more than a strike on an empty one, so these images can theoretically multiply the Ukrainian body count, at minimal extra cost. Many of the images tasked in Ukraine—including many of sites of future strikes—show only cloud cover. These very expensive images of clouds are still much cheaper than another cruise missile.

Two of the largest commercial-satellite-imaging companies in the United States are Maxar and Planet. Both have produced imagery of Ukrainian sites later struck by Russian missiles. Both stressed that they vet their customers diligently, and that they have observed the U.S. regulation that has forbidden transactions with Russia since the beginning of the war. Maxar declined to comment on specific cases of suspicious imagery orders in Ukraine but said it “ceased all business with Russian entities, including resellers, in early March 2022.” Planet said it was dedicated to providing imagery to “responsible actors such as governments, aid and relief organizations, and media,” with “diligent operations to avoid the potential for misuse and abuse.” A spokesperson from Planet told me that after a review of more than a dozen cases of prestrike tasking, the company “did not find evidence of misuse or abuse.” The spokesperson declined to comment further or explain how Planet had exonerated itself in these cases.

Neither company was willing to say whether it had ever detected instances when it suspected that Russia had used its satellites, nor was either willing to describe how it ensured that its customers were not in fact Russian front companies. Maxar and Planet would not say how they would respond if they noticed a suspicious pattern—image tasking, missile strike on a Ukrainian airfield, follow-up tasking. “We regularly conduct thorough reviews” of security, a Maxar spokesperson told me, and have implemented “more stringent controls” for Ukraine imagery.

Sometimes the tasking is benign. If you deal in commodities, you might peek at Odesa’s port to see whether ships are loaded with grain, and whether the world’s grain supply is about to rise. You might also order an image of a wheat field 150 miles north, in Kropyvnytskyi, to see whether the crop is harvested early or late. Even sites of military significance can be of interest to neutral or friendly entities—including the Ukrainian government itself, media organizations, and humanitarian groups that need accurate pictures of the conflict to do their work.

An executive of a firm that analyzes satellite imagery told me that the firm noticed a pattern dating back to 2022, by cross-referencing tasked images against actual attacks. (The executive requested anonymity because the firm does business with the same satellite companies whose images it reviewed, and does not want its relationships to sour over bad publicity.) The executive identified more than 350 Russian missile strikes in the first year of the war, all deep within Ukrainian territory. I showed a selection of cases to Jack O’Connor, who teaches geospatial intelligence at Johns Hopkins University, and he wrote back, “The data suggests that the Russians are doing what the Ukrainians suspect.” He was, however, cautious about what one can infer with certainty, no matter what patterns one sees. “There is no direct causal relation that can be proven from this data.”

In any particular case, it’s impossible to be sure whether the tasking was done with malign intent. That is especially true when the imagery captures a large area. (Maxar, for example, produces very-high-resolution images of whole neighborhoods or even towns.) But the correlations are there. On February 27, 2022, days after the outbreak of war, Maxar was tasked with taking an image near the Belarusian border. On March 6, 2022, a Russian missile hit buildings in Ovruch—which happened to be dead in the middle of the previous week’s tasked image. (Maxar declined to say whether it had taken these images, but a source with access to the company’s catalog confirmed that the images were in it.) On May 18, 2022, with the war in full swing, someone asked Maxar to look at a large square in the town of Lubny. Two days later, a missile struck Lubny, and soon after, someone asked Maxar to take another look, in the area of the original image where the missile had just hit.

The Ukrainian military official acknowledged the possibility that the tasking was just a benevolent citizen or group with curiosity about obscure Ukrainian military assets and armor factories. And he said he had no reason to believe that the companies themselves favor Russia in the war. Planet and Maxar both do a great deal of business with the U.S. government, and intentionally helping Russia would jeopardize contracts and invite regulation.

But the executive I spoke with said that to keep the imagery out of Russian hands, the satellite companies would have to control not just which customers they accept tasking from but also the resale of those images. The executive said the U.S. companies’ process of vetting their customers was “detailed.” Industry experts stressed that the companies have contracts with the U.S. government, and would not gain from doing business with Russia under the table. Although Maxar insists that it no longer does business with Russian entities, including resellers, it did not reply when I asked whether its resellers’ customers also stopped doing business with Russian entities.

The U.S. companies’ desire to avoid doing business with Russia, directly or indirectly, is not in serious doubt. A former U.S. official who worked on commercial-satellite regulation told me that, early in the war, the companies regularly approached the government seeking help to determine whether their customers might be working for the Russians. “It was a confusing time,” he said, “and then companies got better at vetting their customers.” He said the companies had implemented stronger procedures since then. Skies over Ukraine have become crowded with image-capturing satellites. “There are many cooks in the kitchen,” he said—“sometimes five U.S. government agencies at once,” all seeking imagery from commercial and government satellites. And it is very hard to figure out who wants images, and for what purpose. “It wouldn’t surprise me at all that some of those images coincide in space and time with Russian military activities.”

The Ukrainian official told me he would just “like to see these images moderated,” possibly by giving the Ukrainian military a chance to see what images are tasked before they’re taken. He added that “the companies should look very carefully at the records of who has been buying these images,” and probably involve local spy agencies in tracking companies suspected of funneling the images to Moscow. Other Ukrainians I spoke with suggested that instead of blacklisting certain customers, the companies should develop a limited white list of approved taskers, and add to it only when someone is clearly not a Russian agent. (Planet and Maxar did not directly reply when I asked if they had a blacklist or white list, and if so, what one had to do to get on it.)

Much more at the link!

Novomykhailivka, Donestk Oblast:

The "Bermuda Triangle" for russian armored equipment in the Donetsk region. Many russian tanks and IFVs try to attack Ukrainian positions near Novomykhailivka village, but nobody returns.
This time, our defenders destroyed 3 tanks and 4 IFVs; also, 6 armored vehicles were… pic.twitter.com/03cdwFaPOv

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 18, 2024

The “Bermuda Triangle” for russian armored equipment in the Donetsk region. Many russian tanks and IFVs try to attack Ukrainian positions near Novomykhailivka village, but nobody returns.
This time, our defenders destroyed 3 tanks and 4 IFVs; also, 6 armored vehicles were damaged.

📹: 79th Air Assault Brigade

The Avdiivka front:

Say hello to 🇺🇦 FPV drone.
Say goodbye to 🇺🇦 land.

📹: 109th @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/OZw82bmDBt

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 18, 2024

Stugna-P ATGM strike on Russian BMP. Avdiivka front, by the 47th Brigade. https://t.co/SNABJSPkkU pic.twitter.com/K6EScBjkR0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 18, 2024

Moscow:

War without end:

Putin takes a brief victory lap. He says the record high turnout is because society is rallying around his war in Ukraine.

The main goals of his next six years in office are "achieving the goals of the special operation and strengthening our defense capacity and armed forces" pic.twitter.com/cCZnuACRqw

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 17, 2024

Now that the "election" is done, expect acceleration & escalation from #Putin

Not just against #Ukraine, but against Western interests generally – globally@mkimmage & I recently took a deep dive into Russia's global anti-Western project @WarOnTheRocks:https://t.co/hUgTMzTicb

— Hanna Notte (@HannaNotte) March 18, 2024

From War on the Rocks:

“It is clear that the main element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union,” George Kennan wrote in 1947, “must be that of long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies.” When Kennan devised this famous sentence, he did not only have Europe in mind: Asia and the Middle East were catalysts of early Cold War contestation. Soviet expansive tendencies proceeded from the universal sway of communism and from the legacy of the Russian empire, which had been active in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. In 2024, with Russian expansive tendencies once again in evidence, the global thrust of Kennan’s thinking is as salient as his recommendation that U.S. policy cohere around the idea of containment.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was meant to prove that the United States and its allies do not write the rules internationally. To prove this point in Europe, the heart of the liberal international order, is to hasten the advent of a post-Western order globally. Russia has recalibrated its entire foreign policy to fit the needs of a long struggle. Prior to 2022, Russia was already expanding its trade and political relations with non-Western countries and tangling with its Western counterparts in international fora. Since 2022, Russia has dramatically expanded these pre-existing trend lines, while improvising at every turn.

The four pillars of Russia’s global foreign policy are self-preservation, decompartmentalization, fragmentation, and integration. Russia has secured lifelines for its economy and defense enterprises, while navigating to retain its military influence outside of Europe — successfully in Syria and the Sahel and less successfully in the South Caucasus. On a host of policy issues, Russia has abandoned compartmentalization with Western states. Waging a war of narratives, gumming up legacy multilateral institutions, and pushing for the de-dollarization of international finance, a diplomatically hyperactive Russia has sought to fragment the existing international order. Russia has also been integrating partners into clubs that exclude Western states (like the BRICS alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and working with alliances that are openly anti-Western (like the new Alliance of the Sahel States).

Russia’s progress has been substantial enough in these four domains to give it the upper hand in the war and to place the Russian economy on a non-Western foundation. Russia’s successes have not just been a matter of savviness: the Kremlin has benefited from the West’s many mistakes in rallying global public opinion. At the same time, Russia’s redirected foreign policy generates costs and risks to the Kremlin. For Russia, much depends on the war. Victory in Ukraine would prove that Russia is an autonomous global actor capable of thwarting formidable adversaries. Should the war linger indefinitely or should Ukraine surge forward, Russia’s extreme anti-Westernism may start to look short-sighted, accident-prone, and self-defeating.

The United States and its European allies should respond to global Russia with a multi-part containment strategy. One task is analytical: to connect the dots in Russia’s global foreign policy. Another is to confront Russia selectively — where its activities are especially malign. A third is to define its own global outreach positively and not simply as a default strategy for opposing Russia (or China). Most importantly, the United States should help Ukraine to frustrate Russia’s European war aims. These aims are central to Russia’s global aspirations.

Self-Preservation

To deter Russia in 2022, the West had bet on markets. It had counted on its own centrality to the worlds of finance, technological innovation, and commerce, hoping that the threat of massive sanctions would restrain Russian President Vladimir Putin. Once the war began, the West wagered that Russia would be so damaged by sanctions that either its war machine would malfunction or a frustrated population would curtail Putin’s ambitions. An undeterred Russia preserved lifelines for its economy and military machine, leveraging an already robust relationship with China and many other bilateral ties in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Russia found markets for its energy products in Asia and reliable sources of weaponry in Iran and North Korea. Turkey, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus emerged as conduits for the “roundabout trade” of sanctioned goods into Russia.

For Putin, Russia’s economic break with the West may not have been an opportunity cost of the war. It may have been one of the war’s strategic objectives. In the 1990s, Russia’s deep dependence on the West hemmed in its foreign policy. Because Russia relied on the West for loans and for investment, then-President Boris Yeltsin could do nothing to halt NATO expansion. Having shown in 2014 and again in 2022 that Russia’s economy can ride out Western sanctions, Putin has reduced the efficacy of future Western sanctions, a virtuous circle for him. Russia’s growing reliance on Iran and North Korea, often dismissed as technological backwaters, has given it real-time advantages vis-á-vis Ukraine.

While pouring resources into Ukraine, Russia has not stood still elsewhere. In Syria, Russian troops relinquished several positions to groups affiliated with their partner Iran after February 2022. At the same time, Moscow pushed for Syria’s normalization with Arab states and Turkey, hoping to attract the reconstruction funding for Syria that Russia itself cannot provide. Both measures have been aimed at protecting Russia’s influence. In Africa, Russia has similarly ensured its staying power, most recently by restructuring and rebranding the Wagner private military company into the Africa Corps, which the Ministry of Defense holds on a tight leash. Only in the South Caucasus, where Russia’s nominal ally Armenia mourns the forced exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, has the war in Ukraine visibly dented its military clout.

Decompartmentalization

Before 2022, compartmentalization in Russia’s relations with the West was already an endangered practice. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the United States had suspended cooperation with Russia on a range of issues — to punish it and to elicit a change in Russian foreign policy. Yet Moscow and Western capitals managed to insulate areas of critical interest from their mutual grievances, continuing to talk about the future of nuclear arms control, the Arctic, or ways to bring much-needed humanitarian aid to Syria.

With the 2022 war, Russia has become much more categorical. Moscow suspended its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction (New START) Treaty and rejected multiple overtures from the Joseph Biden administration to resume discussions on nuclear arms control. With this, Russia is sending several signals: that something resembling a state of war obtains between Russia and the West; that for Russia to give an inch on any one issue might mean undermining itself on other issues; and that winning the war in Ukraine is a priority far above the value that cooperation on arms control, climate change, or the Arctic might provide for Russia.

Putin’s willingness to jettison any collaborative agenda with the West creates dangers for Russia itself. Arms control, not to mention setting global norms for climate change, is an effort that makes Russia safer and improves Russians’ quality of life. Having emboldened (near-nuclear) Iran and (nuclear) North Korea, the Kremlin cannot be certain that these countries will forever be ruled by regimes friendly to Moscow. A medium-sized economy, Russia does not have endless resources to compete in a multipolar nuclear arms race — one that its own policies may well be fueling. Just as compartmentalization had once contained conflicts between Russia and the West, a global escalation with the West could rebound against Russia. Should current tensions in the Middle East ignite an all-out war, for example, Russia would struggle to protect its presence in Syria.

Fragmentation

Ever since Foreign Minister Yevgeniy Primakov’s celebration of “multipolarity” in the mid-1990s, post–Cold War Russia has taken issue with the West’s global dominance. In the years leading up to the 2022 invasion, Russia had chipped away at support for existing multilateral institutions and regimes. It propagated a narrative about a dysfunctional “rules-based international order,” Russia’s derogatory reference to presumed Western hegemony. For years, Russian diplomats lamented that Western states were bending the rules in organizations like the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Since 2022, Russia has upped the ante. Moscow has intelligently exploited global discontent with the West. By arguing that the West has been invading sovereign countries and redrawing the map since time immemorial, Russia has deflected criticism of its war against Ukraine. Hamas’ attack against Israel on Oct. 7 and its aftereffects have given Moscow new tools of persuasion. While the West backs Israel’s assault on Gaza, Russia has been watching from the sidelines. It can amplify a global outrage that would be proliferating with or without Russia. Without a blueprint, Russia jumps on the West’s travails whenever and wherever they materialize.

Russia has also grown more obstructionist in multilateral institutions. Amid heightened acrimony at U.N. agencies, Russian diplomats have been creative in causing paralysis, tabling texts to compete with Western-backed resolutions and causing procedural hiccups. Russian diplomats have used the U.N. rulebook “as if they were sleeping with it under their pillow,” according to one official. At the U.N. Security Council, the fragile modus vivendi that had still held between Russia and Western states in 2022 also became more precariousover time. The paralysis cannot be blamed on Russia alone: Western diplomats took their grievances with Russia over Ukraine to each and every forum, alienating counterparts from the Global South. Post-invasion demands by Western states that the Global South fall in line with their position on Ukraine have backfired spectacularly.

Finally, Russia’s intent to fragment Western-led international systems includes international finance. Hit with unprecedented Western sanctions and cut off from the financial messaging infrastructure of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, Russia has embraced the idea of de-dollarization, although Russia’s reliance on the yuan and rupee has come with problems. While the Kremlin dreams about the BRICS moving toward a single currency, practical obstacles remain, and Russia has failed to induce other countries to bypass the U.S. dollar. Here, Russia’s push for fragmentation has made little headway thus far.

Integration

The most confounding of Russia’s global projects is the integration of non-Western structures of partnership and allegiance. Moscow has labored to expand both the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cheering growing integration among what Russian diplomats term the “global majority.” As chair of the recently enlarged BRICS, Russia is planning to host over 200 events this year, including a ministerial in Nizhny Novgorod and a summit in Kazan.

Moscow is also exploring less institutionalized forms of integration. At Russia’s behest, synergies are emergingamong constellations of states that are hostile to the West. Russia’s ally Belarus and Iran are strengthening their defense cooperation. This spring, Russia will conduct routine joint naval drills with China and Iran, having also proposed similar three-way exercises with China and North Korea. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are attempting to tie down the American Gulliver in intersecting crises and war zones. Synchronization is not necessarily gamed out in advance, but it is already having a cumulative effect. The United States faces the prospect of simultaneous security crises in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

In the Sahel, a region that continues to tip toward military dictatorships, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger signed a tripartite mutual defense pact in the fall. Amid their joint departure from the Economic Community of West African States, Moscow signaled its interest in enhancing cooperation with the Alliance of Sahel States. After recent successes in fighting in Mali, the Africa Corps has been invited into Burkina Faso and may well emerge in Niger. Successfully branding itself as the only external force serious about fighting terrorism, Russia is creating a new axis of partners.

Closer to home, Russia’s integration projects have foundered. For decades, Russia has been the leading force in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance made up of post-Soviet states that was established in 1992. In January 2022, the treaty had its moment in the spotlight when it successfully performed a regime maintenance operation amid protests in Kazakhstan, but since the invasion of Ukraine, it has failed to impress. When its members Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rekindled their longstanding border dispute in September 2022, the Collective Security Treaty Organization was unable to mediate. In the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it also played a muted role. An irritated Armenian government eventually turned to France and India for arms and held joint military exercises with the United States. In the economic sphere, Russia’s regional integration efforts have performed somewhat better. Amid the flourishing of Russia’s roundabout trade, the Eurasian Economic Union — designed to pursue a common market among Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia — witnessed a re-entanglement of business elites after February 2022.

A Balance Sheet

When Russia failed to take Kyiv and was pushed back in eastern and southern Ukraine in late 2022, low expectations crystallized for Russian foreign policy. The U.S. government identified Russia’s “strategic defeat” as the end state of its Ukraine policy. This optimism was premature — not just for the military configurations on Ukrainian territory, which have gradually begun to favor Russia, but also for Russia’s redesigned statecraft. Russia has been adept at the political economy of war, at styling itself as a David taking on the American Goliath, while thus far avoiding entanglement in costly blunders outside of Europe.

The open question for Russia’s foreign policy is whether its global ambitions are coherent. They are sustainable for Russia, though dangers for the Russian economy loom on the horizon. But if Russia’s improvisatory opportunism gives it agility, it also bespeaks a certain nihilism, as if Russian foreign policy exists for the war and not the war for some larger set of policy aims. This nihilism is most pronounced in Russia’s almost obsessive anti-Westernism, which globally is always in vogue but is too abstract and too empty a position on which to build anything really solid. It also makes for a lot of strange, disparate bedfellows.

Contending with a Global Russia

To recognize the scale of the challenge Russia represents is, first and foremost, to connect the dots of its global foreign policy. To diminish Russia’s sources of self-preservation, the United States should continue to close the loopholes on sanctions. Disrupting weapons transfers from Iran and North Korea will be a tall order, but other efforts to starve Russia’s war machine are having an effect — as shown by the growing number of foreign banks that are restricting their business with Russian clients. Although Russia’s military presence outside of Europe remains modest, the United States should counter Russia’s support for malign actors in the Middle East, where possible, while buttressing partner governments in Africa to limit the further expansion of Africa Corps. Since Washington cannot (and need not) take on Moscow everywhere, it should focus on those theaters where Russian military activities risk producing the greatest negative spillover effects.

The United States should not expect Russia to return to compartmentalization any time soon. Efforts at restraining a nuclear North Korea and preventing Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold will have to be done not just without, but also in opposition to, Russia. Washington should call on Russia to return to nuclear arms control talks before New START expires in 2026, while seriously planning for the eventuality that Putin will not cooperate.

Contending with Russia’s efforts to upend the international order and to advance its own integration projects will be very difficult. Washington’s support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s irresponsible government has further degraded trust in the West, elucidating a simple lesson: The more the United States and its allies have to offer the Global South in its terms, whatever those may be, and the more respect they show to the foreign policy autonomy of those countries, the more they will expose the many points of hollowness that inform Russian foreign policy. The power of example will in every case outshine the power of argument. The same is true for the power of negative example.

Most urgent is continued support for Ukraine. If Moscow wins the war, its efforts to remake international order will accelerate. A Russia in control of Ukraine would feel more self-confident, and it would suffer from fewer resource constraints. Its appeal as a partner to non-Western states would grow, while Western credibility in Europe and elsewhere would be in ruins. Russia’s global game runs through Ukraine. That is where it must be stopped.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

16 March 2024 – 20:37

Dear Ukrainians,

Today, unfortunately, the number of fatalities has increased after the strike on Odesa: twenty-one lives have been taken. My condolences to the families and loved ones. Necessary assistance is provided to all the wounded. Local authorities and the Ministry of Internal Affairs are providing support.

There will definitely be our military responses to Russia. These weeks have demonstrated to many that the Russian war machine has vulnerabilities that we can reach with our weapons. I am grateful to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and Defense Intelligence for their new Ukrainian long-range capability. I am equally grateful to our defense-industrial complex and everyone who works for Ukrainian strength. What our own drones are capable of is a true Ukrainian long-range capability. Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky.

I want to separately commend our warriors this week who are fighting on the ground on the front lines – every soldier, every commander, especially in those areas where the fighting is most intense. Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Donetsk region, near Kupyansk, in the South. I thank all our brigades, all combat units, who are destroying the occupier, giving us greater stability on the front. Today, I discussed the operational situation in detail with General Syrskyi: our capabilities, and existing threats. It is felt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are becoming stronger.

One more thing. We always have to celebrate every Ukrainian success – all our people who bring pride to Ukraine and Ukrainians. This week, our team returned from the Deaflympics in Türkiye. For the first time in our independence, our national Deaflympics team won the most gold medals in the team medal count. I had the opportunity to thank our athletes, coaches, and everyone who helped the team. I presented state awards. I am proud that our people are capable of overcoming all difficulties and, despite everything, capable of bringing results to Ukraine.

Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine, works, and dedicates their lives to ensuring that Ukraine wins. It will win. I am confident.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

On March 16, 2022, Russian occupiers attacked the Drama Theatre in Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians were hiding from shelling.

They dropped a bomb on the theater and were not stopped by the inscription "Children."

The exact number of victims is still not known – according… pic.twitter.com/sMtUkTKT8A

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 16, 2024

On March 16, 2022, Russian occupiers attacked the Drama Theatre in Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians were hiding from shelling.

They dropped a bomb on the theater and were not stopped by the inscription “Children.”

The exact number of victims is still not known – according to various reports – from 300 to 600 people.

Every Russian murderer must be held accountable for what he has done!

Eternal memory to those who died.

A Taurus update. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

To no one's surprise, it took around 24h for the secret information that was referenced in the parliamentary debate on Taurus to leak. This information pertains to the processing power required for inputting & processing targeting data. Some thoughts: 1/10https://t.co/FhQ8qlaP8T

— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) March 15, 2024

The notion that the Taurus targeting process necessitates large amounts processing power and data is not a new or secret revelation. Broadly speaking, there is a “simple” and an “extended” Taurus mission planning protocol. The two are also referenced in the leaked call. 2/10 

“Simple” mission planning typically involves waypoint navigation using GPS. While this simplifies the planning process, it also renders Taurus more vulnerable to countermeasures and reduces accuracy. 3/10 

“Extended” mission planning is more complex. Here you integrate topographical data for TERCOM, pictures for image-based navigation, data on enemy air defense positions, and more detailed models of your target. 4/10 

The probability of Taurus reaching and eliminating its target rises with the complexity of the mission planning process, as discussed in the leaked call. The greater the intricacy of the targeting process, the higher the level of training required by the Ukrainians. 5/10. 

Keep in mind that this kind of extended mission planning was feasible back in the early 2000s, so it doesn’t require supercomputer-level technology. It’s also entirely achievable to store the necessary data separately from the physical data processing machines. 6/10 

In the leaked call, officers discussed how Storm Shadow mission planning is conducted through “reach back.” This likely refers to accessing some data stored in the UK. This indicates that the UK helps Ukraine perform an extended mission planning process in Ukraine. 7/10 

Does this change anything? Absolutely not. Ukraine is fully capable of developing its own data processing infrastructure and obtaining its targeting own data, which they probably already have. Let’s not forget that Ukraine also has its own cruise missile program. 8/10 

The fact remains, that if there was political willingness to allow Ukraine to use Taurus, the government would find a solution that minimizes and potentially prevents any direct Bundeswehr involvement in Ukraine. The key issue is the lack of political will. 9/10 

This has been a savvy political move by the SPD. They invited high-ranking officers to a “secret” meeting where reporting was not allowed, talking about the scarcity of German equipment. It’s no surprise that this tactic influenced some uninformed members of parliament. 10/10 

Many thanks to @John_A_Ridge for reminding me that the United States developed a mission planning system for Tomahawk in the 1990s that can fit inside a van lol.

France:

The President of France Emmanuel Macron gave an interview to Ukrainian media.

Its main points:

On the role of France and his words on troops in Ukraine
🔹The role of France in the war in Ukraine is what Churchill has called "the nerve of war".

🔹We must bear collective… pic.twitter.com/hfTDk7dERK

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 16, 2024

The President of France Emmanuel Macron gave an interview to Ukrainian media.

Its main points:

On the role of France and his words on troops in Ukraine
🔹The role of France in the war in Ukraine is what Churchill has called “the nerve of war”.

🔹We must bear collective responsibility. We are ready for any challenge and if there comes another wave of escalation from Russia, we will be ready to react for the security of Ukraine and Europeans. But France will never initiate any kind of aggression.

🔹Ukraine must have clear visibility of the military aid calendar and walk confidently up to the moment when negotiations become possible.

On aid to Ukraine
🔹I will go to Berlin, speak to Chancellor Scholz and the Prime Minister of Poland. I am confident we will be able to allocate extra finances.

🔹We don’t have limits, we will react to how Russia reacts. I’m not going with advancing initiatives yet because this is not the spirit of collective solidarity.

On negotiations with Putin
🔹If Putin wants to offer something, I will answer his phone call. But the true negotiations about the end of the war must be held by Putin and Zelenskyy.

 

More exceptionally clear, tough language from Macron. The follow-up question (not just for Macron) is: does a permanent de facto or de jure partition of Ukraine count as a Russian "win"? https://t.co/JBEjuxlbDt

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2024

Another dig at Scholz. 'President Emmanuel Macron affirmed that those who place “limits” on commitment to support Ukraine “are not choosing peace but choosing defeat”' https://t.co/OFp3LHNrZ8

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2024

NATO HQ:

Story here with full quotes:https://t.co/0HJTBQxi8X

— Andrew Gray (@andrew_r_gray) March 14, 2024

From Reuters:

BRUSSELS, March 14 (Reuters) – Ukraine is running out of ammunition in its war against Russia’s invasion and NATO members are not doing enough to help Kyiv, the alliance’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.

In unusually blunt comments about the state of the war, Stoltenberg said NATO allies had the capacity to provide more to Ukraine but needed to show the political will to do so.

“Unprecedented aid from NATO allies has helped Ukraine survive as an independent nation. But Ukraine needs even more support and they need it now,” Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

“The Ukrainians are not running out of courage, they are running out of ammunition.”

More than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s military has recently been grappling with significantly reduced weapons supplies from the West.

“NATO allies are not providing Ukraine with enough ammunition and that has consequences on the battlefield every day,” Stoltenberg said. “It is one of the reasons why the Russians have been able to make some advance on the battlefield over the last weeks and months.

“It is an urgent need for allies to make the decisions necessary to step and provide more ammunition to Ukraine. That’s my message to all capitals,” Stoltenberg said.

“We have the capacity, the economies, to be able to provide Ukraine what they need. This is a question of political will. To take the decisions and to prioritize support for Ukraine.”

He added that any attempt to organise Russian elections in occupied regions of Ukraine would be illegal.

The Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka fronts:

/2. FPV drone of the 79th Brigade targeting Russian ground delivery drone on the Novomykhailivka front. https://t.co/HT8SqMH9oP pic.twitter.com/AnxcJRuRoZ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

En route to Britain:

The bulk of Russian jamming activity in the region is for force protection reasons, i.e. to protect Russian forces (in this case in Kaliningrad). Much likelier that RAF plane was incidentally affected by that than targeted specifically. https://t.co/A3ntj90whI

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2024

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

This one just happened!

/1. Drone attack is reported in the Slavyansk-na-Kubani, Krasnodar region of Russia. Russian media claim that at least five drones attacked “a local plant”. No details yet about what was targeted. 290km from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/mR9EIECg86

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

It’s such a recent attack there is no more thread yet. Just the first tweet.

Syrzan, Samara Oblast, Russia:

Get ready to update your Russian oil refiners Bingo card! Syzran refinery, located 1000 km deep inside Russia, is currently offline. pic.twitter.com/fAtjga9xF0

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 16, 2024

I remember how a month or two ago, when some of the first plants were hit, one russian guy said: “H*h*ls, what’s the point? We have so many of these refineries”.

Looks like the drones are coming for all of them lol. https://t.co/TQYS3eMFpZ

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

/1. This morning, 6am local time, Russian oil refinery in Syzran, Samara region, was attacked by drones.

On the video man mentions that “AVT-6 is done” and that “K-2 column is on fire”

The capacity of the AVT-6 on the Syzran oil refinery is 6 million tons per year. That is… pic.twitter.com/7oIF5uqayn

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

/3. Additional footages of fire on the territory of the Syzran oil refinery as a result of the drone attack pic.twitter.com/UU5kBRcI3k

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

/5. Fire on the territory of Syzran oil refinery on the satellite imagery https://t.co/upJzcOHZ7d

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

Russian media as well as the governor of the Samara region say that this morning Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery was also attacked by drones. As claimed, a fire also started there as a result of the attack and was extinguished in half an hour. But unfortunately no videos have yet… https://t.co/DD4Vnt00Xn pic.twitter.com/8dGMiP257H

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

Russian media as well as the governor of the Samara region say that this morning Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery was also attacked by drones. As claimed, a fire also started there as a result of the attack and was extinguished in half an hour. But unfortunately no videos have yet appeared in the media to verify what was hit.
The Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery is located 100km away from Syzran oil refinery. And 900km from the frontline. (53.0664572, 49.8708594)

If you were wondering how things are going with the Ukrainian aligned Russian legions that have raided across the Ukrainian border in to Russia, here you go:

Kozinka Village:

Disturbing footage shows a Russian tank demolishing civilian houses in Russian Kozinka village to stop advancing Free Russian forces. pic.twitter.com/i1BSmGHuLa

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

Graivoron border point:

"Russian Volunteer Corps" democratic forces using a 30-mm gun of a BTR-82A captured in May 2023 against the regime forces at the Graivoron border point. pic.twitter.com/XX4aJeVIdJ

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

Belgorod:

Belgorod, SMO zone, 16 March 2024, results of shelling. pic.twitter.com/4DkBv9SfZA

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

Moscow:

Putin: "Are we ready for negotiations? Yes, we are, but we are only willing to negotiate based on the realities that have emerged…rather than on some kind of fantasies created by psychotropic drugs…They’re snorting cocaine now, right?" https://t.co/VcYNpoH5DL

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2024

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia is supposedly ready for a peaceful solution to the war it has unleashed against Ukraine, but only on condition that the territories it has captured will be taken into account and Moscow is provided with guarantees.

Source: Putin in an interview with Kremlin-aligned Russian news agencies Russia 1, RIA Novosti, and RT; BBC News Russian

Quote from Putin: “Are we ready for negotiations? Yes, we are, but we are only willing to negotiate based on the realities that have emerged, as they say in such cases, on the ground, rather than on some kind of fantasies created by psychotropic drugs.”

Details: Putin added that “possible negotiations are not a pause for rearming Kyiv, but a serious conversation with security guarantees for Moscow.”

Putin claimed he already knew the “carrots [i.e. incentives] they are going to offer him” to prove that the right time had come for talks.

Quote from Putin: “They’re snorting cocaine now, right? Well, it doesn’t matter, it’s even easier with such people. It’s tougher with the smart ones, they are more dangerous as they influence the consciousness of society, including ours. They will toss out all sorts of their desires under the guise of carrots for us.”

Why this is important: Russia invaded Ukraine and occupied Ukraine’s Crimea and part of Donbas in 2014. The Russian Federation commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, launching missiles and bombs on civilian settlements across the country overnight. Notably, in the early days of the full-scale war, Russian propagandists extensively disseminated claims that “Russia will take Kyiv in three days”, while Russian soldiers marching on Kyiv carried their ceremonial uniforms to parade down Kyiv’s central Khreshchatyk Street.

Nevertheless, Ukraine’s Armed Forces expelled Russian troops from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts and continue to hold back the Russians on other fronts.

Realising that it would be impossible to achieve victory with force, Russia started to promote the idea of alleged peace talks through which it would seek to retain all the occupied territories. At the same time, the Russians are continuing to terrorise Ukraine, striking energy and civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. They often do so during the night.

Russian forces are suffering heavy losses regardless of their vast number of weapons and hardware. Russia has failed to achieve even the most minor strategic victory, such as reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as of early March 2024, after over ten years of war and more than two years of full-scale invasion. Fighting for every street and house is ongoing in the cities and villages of Ukraine’s east. Russia has been trying to find weapons and mercenaries in other countries.

Ukraine views the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory, the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders, the release of all prisoners of war, war criminals being brought to justice and Russia paying reparations as the preconditions for negotiations. Ukraine’s Peace Formula outlines all of this.

Background:

• Earlier, Pope Francis advised Ukraine to “have the courage of the white flag” and negotiate with Russia.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that “Russian murderers and torturers are not moving further into Europe solely because they are being held back by Ukrainians with weapons in their hands under the blue and yellow flag”.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

The best animal actor role award goes to this dog.
He perfectly played a role of an occupier who fights against Ukrainian drone. pic.twitter.com/OIzkHRpxAd

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 16, 2024

Open thread!