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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

We’re not going back!

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

This country desperately needs a functioning Fourth Estate.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

Donald Trump, welcome to your everything, everywhere, all at once.

It’s easier to kill a dangerous animal than a man who just happens to have different thoughts/values than one’s own.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

Bogus polls are all they’ve got left. Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls a year from now.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

‘Museums aren’t America’s attic for its racist shit.’

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

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Late Night Open Thread: Convention Planning Updates

by Anne Laurie|  June 3, 20242:40 am| 56 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Elections, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!

Democrats plan to nominate President Biden by videoconference before their August convention to meet an Aug. 7 ballot deadline in Ohio. https://t.co/pAhJUSTaKf

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 28, 2024

This kinda got overlooked in the recent spate of GOP-related criminal news (and I’m probably jinxing the idea by putting it up now). Democrats plan to nominate Biden by virtual roll call to meet Ohio ballot deadline:

President Joe Biden will be formally nominated as the Democratic presidential nominee through a virtual roll call ahead of the party’s official convention in Chicago in August — a maneuver that will allow Biden to appear on the November ballot in Ohio.

The Democratic National Convention, where the president would otherwise be formally nominated, comes after Ohio’s ballot deadline of Aug. 7. The party’s convention is scheduled for Aug. 19-22.

Ohio lawmakers have moved the deadline in the past for candidates of both parties, although they had not done so yet for Biden this year and were called to a rare special session by Gov. Mike DeWine to address the issue.

The virtual proceedings will allow Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to get the party’s formal nod and will be very similar to the process used in 2020, when the convention went virtual because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Chicago, Democrats will still hold a state-by-state roll call that is a fixture of nominating conventions, according to a Democratic National Committee official, although it would largely be ceremonial and it’s unclear how that in-person roll call would commence.

The DNC on Tuesday did not say when the virtual roll call will take place, but it is expected in the weeks after the committee’s rules and bylaws committee votes to propose changes to the roll call process. That committee vote is scheduled for June 4.

“Joe Biden will be on the ballot in Ohio and all 50 states, and Ohio Republicans agree. But when the time has come for action, they have failed to act every time, so Democrats will land this plane on our own,” Jaime Harrison, the Democratic National Committee chairman, said in a statement. “Through a virtual roll call, we will ensure that Republicans can’t chip away at our democracy through incompetence or partisan tricks and that Ohioans can exercise their right to vote for the presidential candidate of their choice.”…

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DNC in Chicago will lose some luster as Democrats plan to virtually nominate President Joe Biden before convention https://t.co/YAogqPMaug

— Chicago Tribune Politics (@ChiTribCloutSt) May 28, 2024

I remember the virtual roll call as being more entertaining than the usual on-site ceremonies, but the Chicago Tribune is understandably disappointed…

Less than three months before the Democratic National Convention comes to Chicago, the event is already losing a significant portion of its celebratory luster as national Democrats on Tuesday said they plan to virtually nominate President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris before the convention to comply with ballot access laws in the crucial swing state of Ohio…

Chicago convention organizers said Biden and Harris will still attend the event to “celebrate” and accept their nominations before thousands of delegates at the United Center who will be attending their first in-person political convention in eight years.

The new virtual nomination, a remote process used to nominate Biden during the COVID-19 attendance-restricted 2020 convention, will be held after meetings of the DNC’s rules and bylaws committee to implement the change. The committee’s vote is scheduled for June 4…

As was the case when Chicago last hosted the DNC in 1996, whether to renominate a sitting president — Bill Clinton then and Joe Biden now — is not an issue for convention delegates. Biden easily won Democratic primaries across the country this year without any significant opposition.

The decision to move forward with a virtual nomination comes as Democratic convention planners had earlier indicated they wanted to import more live remote programming into the United Center event by using techniques from the 2020 convention when COVID-19 curtailed many traditional convention hall activities. That included the possibility of revisiting the 2020 roll call of the 57 states and territories casting their nominating ballots from remote locations…

[W]ith their formal nominations of Biden and Harris a fait accompli prior to the actual August convention events, DNC organizers will be looking for ways to try to energize a crowd of delegates in an in-person show of unity leading to and including Biden’s acceptance speech. Organizers also face an even greater emphasis to find more creative ways to sell the president’s campaign message before the Nov. 5 election.
 
“We are excited to welcome delegates and guests to Chicago where President Biden and Vice President Harris will celebrate their nominations from the United Center and address the American people using beloved elements of conventions past while building on the success of our innovative 2020 programming,” said Emily Soong, a Democratic National Convention spokesperson.

In a statement, the Democratic National Committee said that “in spite of Republicans’ bad-faith efforts to stand in the way, the in-person convention in Chicago will continue to serve as an important convening event for Democrats across the country.”

***********

I think the chance that the RNC rather than the DNC is the insane violent convention just went up kind of a lot

— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) May 30, 2024 at 5:29 PM

Former President Trump to be sentenced just four days before GOP convention https://t.co/kINs80v4WS

— The Hill (@thehill) May 30, 2024

I’m seeing proposals on twitter that the con be moved forward to July 4th, for FREEDUMB, but so far it seems to be a common-clay-of-the-new-QAnon ‘idea’ — the people in charge, much less the representatives with their tickets & hotel rooms already booked, have yet to jump on the rickety bandwagon, so…

… Judge Juan Merchan said Trump’s sentencing hearing will be July 11, just before the Republican National Committee’s convention is slated to start on July 15 in Milwaukee.

Trump is expected to be named as the official 2024 GOP nominee for president at the convention…

It’s not clear how the verdict may impact Trump in the election.

He’s been ahead of President Biden in national and swing-state polls, and he’s been at work on a messaging strategy during the trial to try to make sure a guilty verdict would not hurt him politically.

Guns allowed while hard water bottles, tennis balls banned in RNC security footprint https://t.co/xj4qzwzh6Z

— Journal Sentinel (@journalsentinel) May 30, 2024

I’d be willing to place a small side bet on a last-minute ‘Convention planners announce cancellation, citing security fears from antifa & other outside agitators’… but I don’t see the True Conservatives(tm) giving up their chance to party down in company with their fellows (and well away from the potential disapproval of their hometown constituents). Also, their God Emperor will demand a full coronation televised across all channels, even if he has to phone in his portion from a cell…

Per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, “Guns allowed while hard water bottles, tennis balls banned in RNC security footprint”:

Those looking to cross into the area immediately outside the Republican National Convention perimeter will likely have to leave behind non-plastic containers, tennis balls and other typically innocuous items.

What won’t be prohibited: Guns.

“I find that totally absurd,” said Ald. Robert Bauman, whose district includes downtown, where the convention will take place. “Literally, you can’t have tennis balls, but you can have an AR-15 assault rifle.”

That tension has Bauman pushing for changes and rethinking his sponsorship of the proposed ordinance that would prohibit dozens of items, including air rifles — but not the vast majority of actual guns — in the RNC security “footprint,” where the public and demonstrators will be able to come and go during the July 15-18 event…

The legislation would prohibit “any dangerous ordnance, weapon, or firearm that is prohibited by the laws of the state of Wisconsin under” specific statutes that reference machine guns and other weapons; short-barreled shotguns and short-barreled rifles; and silencers…

Wisconsin law prevents the city and all local governments “from prohibiting the possession or carrying of legal firearms,” City Attorney Evan Goyke told the Journal Sentinel in an email in response to questions the news organization raised about the proposed ordinance.

The security footprint is expected to extend from Cherry Street to the north to West Clybourn Street on the south and from North Water Street on the east to North 9th Street on the west.

The security footprint will surround a “hard perimeter” where credentials will be required to enter, and guns will not be allowed.

That perimeter — the exact location of which has not been released — will surround the primary convention venues of Fiserv Forum, the UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena and the Baird Center.

The U.S. Secret Service, which controls the area inside the “hard perimeter” will not allow any weapons in that space except for those possessed by working law enforcement officers, according to an agency spokesperson. A list of items that are prohibited in that area will be released when it is finalized…

I have a great theme for the 2024 Republican National Convention.

"Trump: A Man With Convictions"

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) May 31, 2024

Late Night Open Thread: Convention Planning UpdatesPost + Comments (56)

War for Ukraine Day 830: A Brief Sunday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  June 2, 20248:39 pm| 17 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A couple of quick housekeeping notes. The girls are fine. Rosie starts here second round of chemo tomorrow. Tonight is her last night of her two weeks off for recovery after the first round. She’s currently chilling in the bottom left quarter of the bed.

Like many of you all, I had a long list of things to do this weekend. And while getting some rest was one of them, and I got the rest of the ones requiring exertion done, I’m wiped, so I’m going to keep tonight’s update short.

Right now the only air raid alert that is up, aside from Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea as air raid alerts are always up for those two, is Kharkiv. I’ll keep an eye on the alert map as I do the update.

Watching Russian hysteria over Western weapons hitting targets inside Russia is surprisingly soothing pic.twitter.com/RDejYLQEK5

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 2, 2024

Total disregard for human life and constant terror is what Russia is trying to spread.

Just this week alone, Russian troops have carried out nearly 1,000 strikes using various types of missiles, guided aerial bombs, and combat drones.

Protecting life in Ukraine with a… pic.twitter.com/tTLlG8RWOG

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 2, 2024

Total disregard for human life and constant terror is what Russia is trying to spread.

Just this week alone, Russian troops have carried out nearly 1,000 strikes using various types of missiles, guided aerial bombs, and combat drones.

Protecting life in Ukraine with a sufficient number of air defense systems, providing our soldiers with the necessary weapons of the required range, and exerting pressure on the terrorist state so that Russia does not have time to adapt is the way to bring peace closer.

Russian terror must lose. The world is capable of ensuring this.

President Zelenskyy is still traveling. Today he attended the Shangri-La Dialogue 2024 in Singapore. The video of his address is below, followed by the English transcript after the jump.

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Speech by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Plenary Session “Re-Imagining Solutions for Global Peace and Regional Stability” Held in Singapore

2 June 2024 – 10:20

Mr. Giegerich,

Dear Ministers of Defense,

Ladies and gentlemen,

Dear journalists,

I’m pleased to address you here today at IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.

For many years in such Summits, including here, in Singapore, people discussed the importance of diplomacy.

It’s often said that brutal force should not dominate the world. Similarly, attempts by various power centers to impose something on other nations against their will in politics, economy, or security should not dominate either. Diplomacy should be those caring and strong hands that prevent international disputes from turning into fights, restraining the most aggressive parties. This is how diplomacy often worked in the past. But frankly, the last few decades have not been a time for diplomacy. We have all felt this, and each region, sometimes even countries, has its own experience of how diplomacy has degraded leaving only disappointment behind.

In the 1990s, Ukraine suffered one of the greatest deceptions in modern history when the security assurances from nuclear powers – in exchange for the nuclear arsenal located in Ukraine, did not translate into real security. It was exactly 28 years ago these days, when Ukraine handed over its last nuclear warheads to Russia, in line with a multilateral international agreement. And it is Russia that has tried to erase Ukraine from the political map of the world. In the 2000s, Ukraine faced the first obvious violations by Russia on our territory and sovereignty, revealing that there was no element of the world’s security architecture capable of restraining Russia and forcing it to stick to the principles and purposes of the UN Charter. So, Putin believes he is allowed to do anything. By the mid-2010s, Russia brought a war to our land – a war that we in Ukraine never, never, never wanted, did not provoke, and which expanded into the most treacherous invasion Europe has experienced since World War II.

All of this was a series of diplomatic failures and constant attempts to keep the world divided into spheres of influence – which disrupts nations’ lives and corrupts global powers. As a result – war. When unity was needed, the world was divided. When bold decisions were required, many were content with the status quo. And when preventive action was necessary to avoid the worst, the aggressor was somehow given time to prepare – we remember how Moscow tempted the world with the talks, all of which resulted in hollow words or unacceptable ultimatums. Thus, we found ourselves in a war that now affects everyone in the world and spreads a globally dangerous cult of violence instead of trust in international law, trust that diplomacy should strengthen.

But Ukraine will not complain. I am here to state: we have found a way to restore diplomacy. This is the goal I spoke about at the Shangri-La Dialogue, now we can make it real.

Dear friends!

Not so long ago it seemed that the world would always be fragmented. But we saw that most nations truly desire and are capable of cooperation, at least as far as collective security is concerned. A clear example are the coalitions from military to humanitarian, formal and informal, which help us withstand the war and prevent Russia from expanding it. These coalitions, supporting Ukraine, unite countries from all continents – with different characters and worldviews. What brought them together? Naturally, diplomacy. Diplomacy does work – when it truly aims to protect life.

Together with partners, we are defending life and rules-based world order. We are working to obtain air defense systems, and co-produce weaponry and drones. We train our soldiers together. We counter cyber threats together. We restore energy infrastructure damaged by Russian terror together. Just now, on Sunday night, Ukraine faced another round of Russian strikes – during one day, imagine, nearly a hundred missiles and drones. This has happened hundreds of times throughout the war, and no country could handle this alone, and I thank everyone in the world who helps us with air defense systems, saving the lives of our people, and the best Patriot systems. The United States, Germany, the Netherlands, and other partners who help us, thank you so much. Together we are also bringing back Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia from the occupied territories of our country. We know for sure about 20,000 Ukrainian children who were kidnapped and taken to Russia – we know their names. And Russia itself claimed that it took several hundred thousand of our children from the occupied territory of Ukraine – only the worst criminals do such things. We must bring all of our children back to Ukraine, to relatives, to parents. I thank Qatar for the help and other partner countries. Also, together with our partners, we are bringing back our captured soldiers.

There are already dozens such joint initiatives, and they work not only for Ukraine. Countries from Libya and Sudan to Bangladesh, consume food produced in Ukraine. All of them benefited directly when we lifted the Russian blockade of our ports and resumed our food exports. Initially, this was achieved through international mediation – together with Türkiye and the UN. Later, when Russia left the Grain Initiative, we resumed our contribution to global food security thanks to our soldiers who defeated Russia at sea. Already, 50 million tons of cargo have been exported through our new maritime corridor. But this was also made possible by diplomacy that supports Ukraine’s resilience in battles. Once again, diplomacy does work.

Now, we are creating a new security architecture for Ukraine based on bilateral security agreements with our partners. There are already 15 such agreements, and more will come. These agreements are comprehensive, covering everything from defense cooperation to political and economic interaction. Diplomacy restores the world’s habit of keeping with the terms of agreements in real life.

Besides, we’ve proven that now diplomacy resolves issues that Europe has been unable to solve for decades. Specifically, we have secured real steps towards Ukraine’s integration with the EU – and Ukraine will definitely become an EU member, a part of one of the biggest global markets and security space.

And the key point – peace.

Our experience of restoring effective diplomacy has led us to the format of the Global Peace Summit. We are convinced that our world wants to be united and be capable of acting in complete harmony. We’ve realized that nations equally reject the idea of someone secretly making decisions and imposing them – what is needed is open and inclusive dialogue. We have confirmed that the principles and purposes of the UN Charter and international conventions are entirely relevant. All this has become the basis of our Peace Formula and has grown into the Global Peace Summit – so every leader and country can show their commitment to peace. The global majority can ensure with their involvement – that what is agreed upon, is truly implemented, and so that Russia, who started this cruel war, cannot push us off the path to ending the war.

More than one hundred countries and international organizations have confirmed their participation in the Summit. For today. At the first Summit, we will address three points of the Peace Formula – nuclear security, food security, and the release of prisoners of war and, of course, the Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. Time is running out, and the children are growing up in a Putinland where they are taught to hate their homeland and are lied to, being told they have no families – while their loved ones wait for them at home in Ukraine. After the Peace Summit, when the global majority agrees on the common understandings and steps, the relevant parties will pass this to Russia, aiming for an outcome similar to The Grain Initiative. If these basic things are implemented, other points of the Peace Formula will work as well.

Yes, we are disappointed that some world leaders have not yet confirmed their participation in the Peace Summit. Unfortunately, there are also attempts to disrupt the Summit. We do not want to believe that this is a desire for monopolistic power in the world – to deny the global community the opportunity to decide on war and peace and to leave this power in the hands of one or two. We respect the UN Charter, respect every nation, and treat everyone equally – only on this principle can the world be safeguarded from war.

Ukraine proposes peace through diplomacy – an inclusive and fair format, Global Peace Summit. And I invite your region, your leaders, and countries to join. So that your peoples are involved in these global affairs and, by uniting against one war, we create for the world a real experience – the experience of overcoming any war, and of diplomacy that does work.

Thank you for the invitation! Thank you for your attention! 

Слава Україні!

The cost:

Today Kyiv honors the memory of Iryna Tsybukh, a Ukrainian paramedic killed by Russian forces on May 29th.

“Freedom is the highest value,” Iryna wrote in her posthumous letter. “To have the strength to be a free person, you must be brave.” pic.twitter.com/pceDcflcWk

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) June 2, 2024

Ніколи не думала, що весь майдан її буде співати
Ще й на похороні@cheka_tsybukh це для тебе pic.twitter.com/HW9h9tt1vI

— Пані Жесть (@Karinchikk) June 2, 2024

I never thought that the whole Maidan would sing it
Also at the funeral
@cheka_tsybukh this is for you

Kyiv:

At the biggest annual Kyiv Book Fair – exhibit of books burnt by RU attack on Kharkiv-based publishing house… One of the titles: “To fight. Not possible to retreat” – symbolic, painful & clear. No chance of our survival, if RU won’t be defeated. pic.twitter.com/SE1468ZkCU

— Ivanna Klympush (@IKlympush) June 2, 2024

Left Bank of the Dnipro, Kherson Oblast:

🇫🇷 AMX-10RC in service with the 37th Marine Brigade is firing on enemy positions on the left bank of the Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/KisEdw7HM8

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 2, 2024

Starytsya, Kharkiv Oblast:

/2. Same Russian attack near Starytsya, finishing off one of the Russian T-62s https://t.co/nYuiUtPcJ4

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 2, 2024

Here’s the full text of the first tweet:

Today Russians began a new attack on a Kharkiv front, in the direction of Starytsya, west from Vovchansk.

According to reports, the attack involved mainly infantry and old tanks like T-62’s. 42nd Brigade of Ukraine took part in the repelling of the attack:

«This morning, Russians launched a massive assault on our positions in the area of ​​the village of Starytsya. Hundreds of tons of equipment and a large number of personnel were destroyed by the coordinated actions of all units of the 42nd Brigade. The battle is still ongoing. At the moment we have confirmation:

💥Infantry: 20-200, 21-300
💥 T-62 – 3 destroyed
💥 T-62 – 1 damaged
💥BMP – 1 destroyed
💥 2S1 Gvozdika – 1 destroyed
💥Car transport – 2 destroyed

We continue our work!»

https://t.me/ua_42nd_ombr/330

And a machine translation of Sternenko’s quoted tweet:

Tankocide continues!

Soldiers of the Perun 42 OMBr unit burned another Russian tank with your drones 💥

Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Vovchansk now.

The so-called “Russian world” has returned. pic.twitter.com/HeDjRjWWiF

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 2, 2024

Kriegforscher, the Ukrainian Marine, has posted a new assessment about what is going on in Vovchansk. Via the Thread Reader App:

The battle for Vovchansk continues. And it feels like that this is only the beginning.

It’s totally clear that RUAF will use at this direction more reserves and will try to do that have been written here a couple of weeks ago — they will try to cut the logistics near Kypansk🧵

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They have started that advance at this direction mainly with 138 brigade and some assault companies from different regiment.

Right now they deployed at least one battalion of 25 mechanised brigade and one air assault battalion (also recon company, snipers company) of 83 VDV unit 

From day to day the launch a different amount of guided bombs. The last time I had a task they used 17 guided bombs.

I don’t whether it’s a lot of not.

But we continue digging.

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But, in general, they are constantly firing at our positions.

I just wait when they finally will use other regimens of the 44 AC and 72 division.

Right now in the city they use only infantry. And evacuation is on foot. 

When they use some small cars — they burn.

So they need to walk a lot.

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From our side I see more (a little bit) artillery and aviation. But the point is to strike deep into Russia.

I hope it will happen now. 

Some period of time ago in some unknown place I have met a tank platoon.

Just look at this beauties 🔥 

Unfortunately, during a counterattack on May we have lost (burned) one Styker. Another one was abandoned (and lately recovered as far as I am concerned).

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And another thing is happening that was told by me: they try to dig at newly occupied territory so it will be hard to make them retreat after that.

Right now they don’t reach a success doing this.

Destroyed Russian trucks 👇

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Filmed by our long range UAV platoon destroyed Russian tank, BMP-1 and IMR-2(?).

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Our long range UAV is constantly looking for Russian artillery in Belford oblast. For example, 2S43 «Malva» from the 9th artillery brigade.

To be more effective in destroying them they need your support.

Tablets, tools, GPS tracker.

Price is 1K$

PP is: [email protected]Image

The Avdiivka front:

🔥Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade of Ukraine destroys two Russian BTR-82 which were attacking Ukrainian positions on the Avdiivka front.https://t.co/mZARplZw9t pic.twitter.com/qTW3Gx74Lm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 2, 2024

Reuters published a deep dive, long form report on Ukrainian Soldiers on the front lines. Here are some excerpts:

The artillery fire begins just before dawn. A soldier steps into a darkened trench and lights a cigarette, carefully cupping the flame with his free hand. A boom and crackle of outgoing fire sound in the distance.

Viktor, the infantryman, ducks his head under a canopy of camouflage netting and looks up at the brightening sky. The incessant buzz of a drone sounds overhead, moving a dozen meters from one end of the trench to linger just above him.

Viktor swallows. A moment later, the buzzing sound moves on.

“One of ours,” the 37-year-old soldier says, bringing the cigarette back up to his lips.

The sun finally rises and the noise of war picks up. For weeks, Viktor has barely slept as Russian drones and artillery continually target his position. During the day, he watches for any attempts by Russian troops to cross a minefield that separates the two sides. At night, he picks up a shovel to dig and fortify his trench.

“They’re constantly firing, constantly probing,” he says. “We have to survive somehow and we have to hold the line.”

It is the start of another draining day on Ukraine’s eastern front line. Monitoring his scratchy radio, Viktor will try to move as little as possible in a trench less than 800 meters from where Russian soldiers are amassed. For seven months, Viktor’s unit has held this sector of the front, repelling a relentless onslaught of Russian assaults.

Now in the third year of full-scale war, Ukraine’s top military leaders openly admit that the battlefield situation on the eastern front has deteriorated. Two years of war have sapped Ukraine’s ammunition and manpower, while the country’s failed counter-offensive last year sank morale.

As Reuters traveled along the eastern stretch of Ukraine’s 1,000-kilometer front line in April, soldiers in infantry, artillery and drone units all expressed exhaustion. They spoke of an acute shortage of ammunition and an urgent need to replenish troops. A new push by Moscow earlier this month near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, is likely to further divert precious ammunition and personnel from other sections of the front, stretching Kyiv’s military thin at a critical moment in the war.

Though Congress finally greenlit a long-delayed $60 billion U.S. military package in April, analysts say that a severe worldwide shortage of artillery shells means Ukraine will likely be outgunned by Russia for the remainder of the year as Kyiv’s allies ramp up production. Reuters could not independently establish how much of the new U.S. weaponry has made it to the front line. On a visit this month to Kyiv, Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured Ukraine that the delayed aid was “now on the way” and some had “already arrived.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said recently there were no reports of artillery shortages. But in an interview last week with Reuters, he called on Western allies to speed up aid, saying every decision they’ve made on military support for Ukraine has been “late by around one year.”

With the possibility of Donald Trump, who has questioned American military aid to Ukraine, returning to the presidency later this year, many Ukrainians fear the continued support of their most powerful ally hangs in the balance.

Russia, meanwhile, has continued to batter Ukraine with seemingly endless resources.

President Vladimir Putin, riding high as he begins his fifth term, has redoubled his war effort. In 2014, Russian-backed separatists staged a battle to control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. Since 2022, Putin has made clear his aims to annex the entirety of the area, known as Donbas. To that end, Russian forces have made steady advances in recent months. In February, they captured the eastern city of Avdiivka.

Now, Russia is trying to seize Chasiv Yar, a strategic hilltop city that, if captured, would allow its troops to more easily advance toward the remaining cities of the Donetsk region. Russia’s recent incursions in Kharkiv have distracted the world’s attention from the heavy battles being waged in the Donetsk region, Zelenskiy told Reuters.

The Ukrainian armed forces and the Russian defense ministry did not respond to questions for this story.

Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago, Viktor, the infantryman, was working as a window framer outside of Uman, a city in central Ukraine. His wife had just given birth to a baby daughter. They lived with his parents in his childhood home built on a small hill overlooking verdant forests and fields that changed color with the seasons. (Like all of the Ukrainians profiled in this report, Viktor asked to be identified by his first name only, in keeping with military protocol.)

Viktor received his mobilization notice four months after the beginning of the war. He was quickly sent to an area in northern Ukraine that borders Russia to dig trenches and fortifications. Later, he was transferred to Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, where mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner group were fighting to capture the city. Last September, Viktor was handed a Browning machine gun and taught how to clean and maintain the weapon. A week later, he was transferred to the front in Donetsk without having fired a single practice round.

When Viktor’s infantry unit first arrived here, thickets of oak and birch trees lined the grassy fields. There were still birds in the trees then and the leaves were just starting to change color. The soldiers dug trenches into the tough black soil but had no time to cover them with wooden planks before the Russian bombardment started. Through winter, the Russians’ near-constant shelling reduced the trees and fields to ashes, leaving only a tangle of charred stumps.

In winter, temperatures in Viktor’s trench fell as low as minus 26 degrees Celsius. On warmer days, shin-high water pooled at the bottom of the canal, mixing with the earth to turn into slushy mud, soaking everything. All the while, Russian drones flew overhead, hovering above the open trench and dropping grenades.

At the beginning of this year, Russian forces attempted yet another assault, driving an armored personnel carrier into a field just meters from Viktor’s position. He fired at the vehicle with his machine gun and diverted it to a minefield, where it detonated a mine and exploded.

Several of the Russian soldiers died in their vehicle, say Viktor and his commander. Others survived with serious injuries and tried to crawl through the minefield back toward the Russian positions. One of them, a former convict from Russia’s Buryatia region, was taken prisoner, Viktor says. Immediately afterward, Russian attacks on Viktor’s position intensified.

“So of course the Russians were angry. They lost equipment, lost people, so of course they started shelling with everything they have,” Viktor says.

In the heat of battle, all you can do is pray, he says. Around his neck, Viktor wears silver medallions of the Virgin Mary and the crucifix. But when the situation is truly dire, he will pray to every God he knows.

After Russia’s failed assault, their drones started dropping gas canisters into Viktor’s trench. A colorless, odorless gas would quickly fill the trench as Viktor and his partner fumbled in the dark for their gas masks. Coughing and sputtering, Viktor would crawl into a hole dug into the side of the trench just tall enough for him to crouch in and grab his phone. There, using candlelight, he would flick through photos and videos of his now two-year-old daughter on his phone.

The Ukrainian military says Russia has ramped up its use of riot-control chemical agents to clear trenches on the front line. The U.S. State Department says Russia is deploying a choking agent called chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops, in violation of the international chemical weapons ban. The U.S. allegations were unfounded, the Russian foreign ministry said this month.

When spring finally came, nothing flowered. All Viktor sees now are the outlines of blackened tree trunks on the horizon.

His exhaustion is palpable – the result of months spent holding the line against an enemy with seemingly endless manpower and weaponry. Death and injury are constant and every day is a reminder of the asymmetry of the war.

A declassified U.S. intelligence report in December assessed that Russia had lost as much as 90% of the personnel it had at the start of the 2022 invasion, with 315,000 soldiers killed or injured. Despite the losses, Russia is still estimated to have almost 500,000 servicemen in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, and has continued to replenish its troops, recruiting heavily from prisons and from the general public. Ukrainian officials say Russia is planning to add another 300,000 soldiers in time for its summer offensive.

Russia’s new defense minister said this month there were no plans for a new mass call-up of troops. Russian officials also say Western estimates of Russian losses are inaccurate.

Zelenskiy recently signed off on a long-debated mobilization law to bolster Ukraine’s armed forces, which number around 800,000. The law, passed in April, lowers the draft age to 25 from 27. The government hasn’t said how many new conscripts the law would yield, and how soon they can reinforce the troops already on the front line.

“It’s not like how it looks on a map, with all these pretty lines and arrows,” Viktor says. “I see my friends, what’s happened to them, what we’re fighting. It’s hell. It’s worse than hell.”

In February, the constant Russian assaults, sleep deprivation, and fear finally got to Viktor. He woke up one morning frozen with terror, physically unable to go to his position.

“I couldn’t calm myself down,” he says. “Not even that I didn’t want to go, but I couldn’t go. I was physically and mentally tired.”

Viktor was paralyzed by anxiety. What if he failed to do his job properly, what if something went wrong with his gun, what if he let down his comrades, whom he calls his “brothers” and considers his second family?

He shared his concerns with his company commander. Despite a severe shortage of soldiers on the front, the commander gave Viktor a few days of rest and time to talk with a psychologist. That short reprieve saved him and helped reframe his fear of death.

Much, much more at the link!

The BBC brings us news about Estonia’s strategic concerns: (emphasis mine)

Estonia considers itself a front-line state, a Nato member where its border guards stare across the Narva River at the Russian fortress of Ivangorod.

This tiny Baltic state, once a part of the Soviet Union, is convinced that once the fighting stops in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics, looking to bring countries like Estonia back under Moscow’s control.

To help stave off that possibility, Estonia’s government has poured money and weapons into Ukraine’s war effort, donating more than 1% of its GDP to Kyiv.

“If every Nato country did this,” says Estonia’s steely Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, “Ukraine would win.”

But Ukraine isn’t winning.

Short of artillery, ammunition, air defences and most of all, troops, Ukraine is struggling to hold back the sheer weight of Russian firepower, glide bombs and massed infantry assaults that often border on the suicidal.

What, I asked Prime Minister Kallas, is Estonia’s Plan B if Ukraine loses this war and Russia’s invasion ultimately succeeds?

“We have no Plan B for a Russian victory,” she replies, “because then we would stop focussing on Plan A” – helping Ukraine push back the Russian invasion.

“We should not give in to pessimism. Victory in Ukraine is not just about territory. If Ukraine joins Nato, even without some territory, then that’s a victory because it will be placed under the Nato umbrella.”

Kaja Kallas is controversial. She is not the first national leader to be more popular outside their country than within.

Born a Soviet citizen, her mother and grandmother were forcibly deported to Siberia.

Now 46 and prime minister since 2021, she is one of the most hawkish leaders in Nato when it comes to blunting the Kremlin’s ambitions in Europe. That has spooked some in the White House that she risks dragging the West into direct conflict with Moscow.

Many Estonians are also less than happy at taxes being raised to pay for their contribution to Ukraine’s defence. But Kaja Kallas wants the West to wake up to what she sees as an existential threat from a newly aggressive Russia.

“Russia wants to sow fear in our societies,” she tells us, sitting in the cabinet office in Estonia’s equivalent of 10 Downing Street, overlooking the soaring spires and ancient castle walls of Tallinn’s Old Town.

“We see different hybrid attacks in many parts of the EU.””

Hybrid attacks”, also known as “sub-threshhold” or “grey zone” warfare, are hostile actions suspected of being carried out by an adversary such as Russia where no shots are necessarily fired, no-one is killed and blame is often hard to pin – yet the damage can be extensive.

An example, still unsolved, would be the mysterious underwater explosions that blew up the Nordstream gas pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea in 2022. Another example is the recent allegation of Russian electronic interference in flights passing close to its exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast.

In its latest annual report, Estonia’s internal security service Kapo quotes the example of last autumn when hundreds of schools in Estonia and other Baltic states were sent emails claiming bombs had been placed in school buildings.

“Such threats,” says the report, “aim to create psychological and emotional tension by targeting the most vulnerable – threatening the safety of children”.

So just how vulnerable is Estonia to a future Russian invasion?

“We have to prepare for war so that we don’t have one,” says one Nato officer, speaking on the sidelines of Nato’s Exercise Steadfast Defender.

Down on Estonia’s southern border with Latvia, ageing British Challenger 2 tanks and other 1980s-era armoured vehicles lurch over farmland, belching exhaust fumes into the clear spring air.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was something of a wake-up call for the Western alliance. It made Nato chiefs realise that they needed to significantly beef up their military presence on Europe’s eastern flank if they are to deter any future Russian invasion.

Today the UK leads a 1,200-strong battle group based in Tapa, northern Estonia, and composed of tanks, infantry, artillery, drones and a company of France’s elite mountain infantry.

Much more at the link.

Moscow via Beijing:

Putin had three big asks from Xi in Beijing:

– Power of Siberia-2, which Gazprom needs to replace lost European exports
– more Chinese banking in Russia despite possible US sanctions
– for China to skip Ukraine’s peace summit

He only got the last one. https://t.co/0offI4HZS9

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 2, 2024

This should provide a strong signal to Biden’s nat-sec team about just how weak Putin really is and, as a result, why giving him any real credence in your deliberations is strategic malpractice. I do not expect the signal to be picked up, let alone the message to be received.

Speaking of China:

A Chinese trade body sought to buy drone-jamming equipment for Russian buyers last month, underlining close ties between the countries amid concerns in Europe and the US over China’s supply of dual-use technology to Moscow. @leahyjoseph @maxseddon Sun Yuhttps://t.co/EVJ57PV0Lk

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 2, 2024

From The Financial Times:

A Chinese trade body sought to buy drone-jamming equipment for Russian buyers last month, underlining the close ties between the two countries amid concerns in Europe and the US over China’s supply of dual-use technology to Moscow.

The government-affiliated Guangdong Province Trade Promotion Association for Russia, which was set up last year to help Russian customers buy goods ranging from trucks to boats, posted a “Notice of foreign enterprises purchasing [unmanned aerial vehicle] equipment” on its WeChat social media site.

The association said the buyers wanted “interference generators, drone detectors (trade names BorisTone, Assel Labs, Bulat) or other similar technological solutions, UAV suppressors, communication frequency band jammers”.

The buyers wanted a locally made equivalent to the Bulat drone detectors, which were developed by a St Petersburg company, 3mx. 3mx has said that these detectors have been used “on the front lines” during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The US has repeatedly said it wants to stop supplies reaching Russia’s defence industry through China, which it sees a vital route to sustain President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

US deputy Treasury secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Friday that the US and Europe “must make the choice stark for China”. “Chinese firms can either do business in our economies or they can equip Russia’s war machine with dual-use goods. They cannot do both,” Adeyemo said in a speech to German business leaders in Berlin on Friday.

China plays a dominant role in the global drone supply chain and DJI, which is based in Shenzhen in Guangdong province, is the world’s largest commercial drone maker by shipments.

Last month, the US Treasury placed sanctions on two Chinese groups — Wuhan Global Sensor Technology and Wuhan Tongsheng Technology — that officials previously told reporters were helping Russia.

The Treasury also targeted Juhang Aviation, a company based in Shenzhen, that produces drone-related equipment, including propellers, signal jammers, sensors and engines.

According to its WeChat account profile, the Guangdong Province Trade Promotion Association for Russia was established under the guidance of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce. Guangdong, a tech manufacturing superpower, is one of the country’s wealthiest provinces.

The association’s responsibilities include co-ordinating with the province to encourage global trade, assisting in connecting with Russian buyers, interpreting economic and trade policies and providing legal consultation services related to Russia.

More at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new(ish) video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Ось така була моя весна 🍃🌼😌

♬ оригінальний звук – dreamyclips

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

This was my spring 🍃🌼😌

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 830: A Brief Sunday Night UpdatePost + Comments (17)

Sunday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  June 2, 20247:25 pm| 79 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House"

The leveling and mulching is done, and now we wait. Here’s a picture from the alley showing the back yard and porch:

Sunday Night Open Thread 12

To give you an idea of how much area we had to level and fill in, this is from the side of the steps on the porch:

Sunday Night Open Thread 13

And here is a view from the porch looking back to the shed and alley:

Sunday Night Open Thread 14

Just going to leave it like that for the rest of the summer and let the mulch kill off the grass for the walkway, then put in a proper walkway. It was a lot of dirt and mulch, and I still have a ton left over.

I’m glad that is done, though, so now I can focus on painting the porch, powerwashing the fence and house, and drylocking the basement again.

Sunday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (79)

Medium Cool – I Want to Meet Chief Inspector Gamache

by WaterGirl|  June 2, 20247:00 pm| 78 Comments

This post is in: Medium Cool, TV & Movies, Culture as a Hedge Against This Soul-Sucking Political Miasma We're Living In

Medium Cool is a weekly series related to popular culture, mostly film, TV, and books, with some music and games thrown in.  We hope it’s a welcome break from the anger, hate, and idiocy we see almost daily from the other side in the political sphere.

Arguments welcomed, opinions respected, fools un-suffered.  We’re here every Sunday at 7 pm.

I am watching Three Pines, and every time Chief Inspector Gamache interviews someone I am struck by the kindness in his voice and the fact that he is asking the questions as if it’s not an interrogation at all.  It feels like a conversation, not an accusation, and he really seems interested in the answers.  He is truly interested in the person.

Such a thoughtful show; such a thoughtful character.  I am on the last episode, and I’m feeling quite melancholy about this being the last one.  Another great show, canceled.  Bastards!

In any case, as I was watching today I realized that I am going to miss Inspector Gamache, and it came to me that he is someone I would very much like to meet, if only he were real.

What character from a film, a show, or a play would you like to meet in person, if only you could? (Let’s save characters from books for another time.)

Please tell us not just the who, but also the WHY.  That is one piece of feedback I consistently get about Medium Cool – that it’s most interesting when people talk about the why instead of just list a thing that they like.

Update:  I wrote this post last week, when I thought I was at the end of the last of the 6 episodes of Three Pines.  Then I found out there were 8 episodes, not 6, so I watched the other two this week.  Color me officially cranky about the ending.  Bastards!

Medium Cool – I Want to Meet Chief Inspector GamachePost + Comments (78)

Jax PRIDE (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  June 2, 20246:35 pm| 65 Comments

This post is in: LGBTQ Rights, LGBTQ Rights Are Human Rights, Open Threads, Politics, Report From Sunny Gilead

There is or should be respect accorded to the phrase “Freedom Summer” in America due to the voter registration struggle in 1964 Mississippi. It claimed the lives of heroes and exposed troglodyte local officials as the KKK scum they were.

Florida’s current excruciating dullard of a governor, a man so devoid of talent and imagination and humanity that he patterns himself on whiny  lowlife convicted felon Donald Trump and even fails at that, co-opted “Freedom Summer” for a sales tax holiday.

Then the leaden lump made it a paean to the “freedom” his culture war bullshit supposedly bestowed on the state, including a FLDOT order that bridges can only display red, white and blue lights:

WaPo 5/23/2024 – DeSantis’s ‘Freedom Summer’ means no rainbow lights for Florida bridges

As part of what Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is calling “Freedom Summer,” his Transportation Department has told cities across the state that if they want to light up their bridges at night, they can only use the colors red, white and blue…

“As Floridians prepare for Freedom Summer, Florida’s bridges will follow suit, illuminating in red, white, and blue from Memorial Day through Labor Day!” [FLDOT Sec. Jared] Perdue wrote on X. “Thanks to the leadership of Gov. Ron DeSantis, Florida continues to be the freest state in the nation.”

A number of bridges across the state prominently display rainbow colors in honor of Pride Month in June, among other celebrations throughout the year. Many see the order to display only red, white and blue as another move against the LGBTQ+ community, which has been targeted by a number of DeSantis-backed laws in recent years.

For half of the population, bodily autonomy and access to modern reproductive healthcare were recently swept away in the shit-tsunami of “freedom” gushing out of Tallahassee. And of course this dumb goddamn lighting rule is yet another middle finger to the state’s embattled queer community.

In response, a set of heroes in Jacksonville banded together to light a candle instead of cursing the darkness. More accurately, they lit flashlights:

Jax bridge lit for Pride

Action News Jax: Community members display their own version of pride, light up Main Street Bridge in San Marco

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — On Friday night, community members gathered to display their own version of pride — by lighting up the Main Street Bridge in San Marco with rainbow colors.

This comes after the Florida Department of Transportation said all state bridges must be lit red, white, and blue all summer long for Governor Ron DeSantis’s Freedom Summer.

Saturday kicks off Pride Month. And for years, the Acosta Bridge was lit with rainbow colors during June. But since that won’t happen this year, people found another way to show their pride.

Seventy people held flashlights of the six different colors of pride to illuminate the rainbow on the Main Street Bridge.

“This is an awesome experience,” participant Rebecca Thacker-Sanchez said.

“It feels really fun actually, I feel like we’re writing history today,” participant Andres Santandreu said.

Light display organizer, Matthew McAllister, says tonight’s event was about showing how freedom and diversity can coexist together.

“Celebrating freedom is great, exercising it is better,” McAllister said.

Amen, Mr. McAllister.

Thanks to TaMara for alerting me to this good news Florida story, and also to the ever-fabulous Sister Golden Bear, who mentioned it in the morning thread. Happy Pride, y’all!

Open thread!

Jax PRIDE (Open Thread)Post + Comments (65)

Lazy Sunday Afternoon Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  June 2, 20242:00 pm| 168 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

It’s a quiet day here.  The most drama we’ve had is that my little Henry is demanding to be fed, and if you look closely you can see that he brought Mr. Bear along for backup!

But Henry is clearly the front line.

I’m about to eat lunch.  What’s going on for all of you today?

Lazy Sunday Afternoon Open ThreadPost + Comments (168)

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Pride Month Is For Everyone

by Anne Laurie|  June 2, 20249:33 am| 246 Comments

This post is in: LGBTQ Rights Are Human Rights, Open Threads

For generations, LGBTQI+ Americans have summoned the courage to live proudly – even when it meant putting their lives at risk.

This Pride Month, we recommit to realizing the promise of America for all, to celebrating LGBTQI+ people, and to taking pride in the example they set. pic.twitter.com/d9cBiGoKCr

— President Biden (@POTUS) June 1, 2024

My message to LGBTQI+ Americans: We see you. We hear you. And we celebrate you.

Happy Pride! pic.twitter.com/1S2fRuSoZn

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) June 1, 2024

show full post on front page

Organizers say record-setting drag queen story time reading kicks off Philadelphia Pride Month https://t.co/lGjTrkD7iI

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 1, 2024

Organizers of a drag queen story time reading at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia say several hundred people helped establish a world record for attendance at such an event to kick off Pride Month celebrations in the birthplace of America.

The event Saturday, hosted by the Philadelphia Gay News and sponsored by Visit Philadelphia, saw Philadelphia drag performers reading children’s stories to 263 people, which organizers said was a first-ever Guinness World Record in the category…

Mark Segal, publisher of Philadelphia Gay News, said in a statement that “creating history-making moments like we’ve done today, hosted on land synonymous with our country’s fight for fundamental rights and freedom, serves as a powerful reminder of the resiliency, talent and culture that make up the fabric of our great American city.”

A message was sent earlier to Guinness representatives seeking comment. The Guinness site has a June 2023 story about a record for the most people attending a drag brunch with 412 attendees in Brooklyn, New York.

June may be #PrideMonth, but we support our LGBTQ brothers & sisters… ALWAYS! 🏳️‍🌈 pic.twitter.com/YEum2BnbWs

— Mark Hamill (@MarkHamill) June 2, 2024

Happy Pride Month. 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ pic.twitter.com/mf5fvJptKq

— Lakota Man (@LakotaMan1) June 1, 2024

Here for the angry “Sesame Street got woke” replies from people who clearly know nothing about the history of Sesame Street. https://t.co/sH72IG09FE

— The Volatile Mermaid (@OhNoSheTwitnt) June 2, 2024

Happy pride 🏳️‍🌈 pic.twitter.com/85vvx679dq

— Gators Daily 🐊 (@GatorsDaily) June 1, 2024

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Pride Month Is For EveryonePost + Comments (246)

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