In terms of national impact, a Democratic victory in Virginia would provide much needed continued momentum coming into the election year.  Hopefully it would put a major crimp in Youngkin’s plans for the presidency.  Further, the rollback of reproductive rights in Virginia would reverberate far beyond the state.  Virginia is one of – if not the only – Southern state in to allow abortions up to 26 weeks of pregnancy.

But does Virginia need our financial help?

Some background:

• Governor Glenn Youngkin – the down-vest-wearing alleged future savior of the party – is a Republican.
• The 40 member Virginia Senate is narrowly in Democratic hands.
• The 100 member House of Delegates narrowly flipped to the Republicans in 2021, after Youngkin repeatedly shrieked “Critical Race Theory” and manufactured concerns about dirty books in school libraries and giant trans women in sports.
• If Republicans retain control of the House of Delegates and flip the Senate, Youngkin could end the stalemate on reproductive rights, taxes, school “choice,” climate change and all the other items on the reprehensible Republican agenda.

The Good News in Virginia

There’s hope.

Redistricting:  In 2021, Virginia voters approved a new (and fairer) redistricting process. This led to a mass of retirements and exoduses in this cycle.  According to the Virginia Mercury:

The reasons for the 2023 exodus vary from legislator to legislator. For some, advanced age or illness were a decisive factor. But the dramatically different electoral maps created after voters approved a new redistricting process in 2021 have been a clear factor in the ongoing institutional shake-up, pushing many incumbents out and opening up more room for  candidates to run in new districts other incumbents can’t fully claim as their own.

“A lot of oxes got gored on both sides of the aisle,” said Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Rich Anderson. “I guess in that sense one could say it was a fair map.”

https://www.virginiamercury.com/2023/05/16/how-redistricting-reform-is-launching-the-virginia-general-assembly-into-a-new-era/

Momentum: There is Democratic momentum, both nation-wide and in Virginia.  As in most places, Virginia Democrats over-performed expectations in 2022.  A Democrat won a Congressional special election in February 2023 with three quarters of the vote (retaining a seat).  In the State Senate, an early 2023 special election flipped a Republican seat (which gave the Democrats control of the Senate).

Money.  The national Democratic party is not ignoring this election:  As of mid-September, the DNC – at President Biden’s direction – has invested $1,500,000 into campaign staffing and get-out-the-vote programming.  According to the Virginia Public Access Project, so far this cycle the Democrats have raised over $34MM to the Republican’s $20MM.  The numbers and the financial momentum are on our side.

The Wild Card:   There is a potential government shutdown looming at the end of the month.  While much of the country may shrug it off, the impact on Virginia could be devastating.  Hundreds of thousands of government workers in NoVa and the Hampton Roads area could be furloughed (and unpaid).  The economic fallout would be felt immediately.  This could benefit the Democrats if blame is properly assigned.

The Bad News in Virginia

Money is pouring in on the Republican side as well.  Youngkin’s unholy “Spirit of Virginia” PAC has raised $8,500,000 so far this year and posted a record-breaking fundraising total in the last quarter.  While significantly behind the Democrats, the Republicans are not rolling over.  And while his popularity has slipped a bit, Youngkin remains fairly popular in Virginia.

Possible Races to Target

Despite all 140 seats being contested, there are only a handful of true toss-ups, particularly in the Hampton Roads (Norfolk/Virginia Beach).  This is a former Republican stronghold trending purple.

According to the election analytics organization CNalysis there are four true toss ups in the House of Delegates.  This includes two vulnerable Virginia Beach-area Republicans who squeaked by in 2021, but whose districts acquired more Democrats in the recent re-districting.

The two other toss-ups are in open seats that voted for Youngkin, but also for Democratic candidates in the 2022 congressional house race.  (U.S. House)

Similarly, the three Senate toss-ups – two of which are open seats – also are in districts that voted for both Youngkin and the Democratic Congressional candidate in 2022.

https://cnalysis.com/articles/initial-forecast-virginia-2023/

After seeing the details, what are your thoughts on jumping into the VA races financially?

Door #1:  Yes, let’s get in right away and target the toss-ups candidates with the most potential and/or support local turn-out-the-vote groups.  Also, postcards.

Door #2:  Let’s hold our fire for the short term and see what kind of money pours into these Virginia races.  We’ll monitor the inflow through various sources, including the Virginia Public Access Project.  If we spot an opportunity – a promising candidate whose fundraising is lagging, for example – we’ll put up a thermometer.  Also, postcards.

Door #3:  Take a pass.  There’s enough money coming in – this is like the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.  But still do postcards.

What say you, BJ peeps?

I am very much inclined toward Door #1, but if you have a different preference, please share your thinking.

Basically, if you’re on board, we would set up something like the Purple House Races fundraising in 2022.

Also, if you have other thoughts about how to approach Virginia, we are happy to listen.

Beyond Virginia!

I have a meeting set for this Saturday with Four Directions.

Last Friday we met with one of the folks from Worker Power (boots on the ground in GA and AZ in 2022)

And I’ve reached out to Voting Access for All.

Generally speaking, I’m thinking we’ll want to raise money for some of the folks we have already identified and supported in the past, and support some new groups, as well!

We’re looking into opportunities to help groups related to Youth turnout – how do you guys feel about that?  It’s a bit of a break from our focus in the past.  On the other hand, young voters are much more diverse than in the past, and we’re looking for opportunities with HBCUs, so maybe it’s not much of a break at all?

Open thread.