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But Enjoy Your Weekend

by WaterGirl|  September 21, 20238:01 pm| 129 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads, Politics

Go Joe!  💕

Last time there was a government shutdown, 800,000 Americans were furloughed or worked without pay.

But enjoy your weekend. https://t.co/wAz1SpInV5

— President Biden (@POTUS) September 21, 2023

Just saw this outstanding tweet that rikyrah linked to earlier.

These extreme Republicans are proving time and time again to be anti-Veteran and anti-Military. #MAGAnomics pic.twitter.com/qXANU9cKcN

— VoteVets (@votevets) September 21, 2023

Open thread.

But Enjoy Your WeekendPost + Comments (129)

Thursday Evening Open Thread: GOP War to the Knife Spork

by Anne Laurie|  September 21, 20237:12 pm| 73 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!

Thursday Evening Open Thread:  GOP War to the <del>Knife</del> Spork

(John Deering via GoComics.com)

 
Anybody wanna hand them some sharp implements? Nothing too dangerous — maybe some sharp scissors?

Note sender:

https://t.co/vxYqKnLxNq pic.twitter.com/Z48ppBkBZQ

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) September 20, 2023

McCarthy genuinely making the case for sending the GOP back to minority where they can do less harm: “just want to burn the whole place down.” https://t.co/7TugFOToLA

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) September 21, 2023

The House GOP, which is “tearing itself apart”, is divided into three factions. There’s the Freedom Caucus; abt 160 reps who do what the Freedom Caucus tells them to do; and about 20 moderates who bitch and moan before doing what the Freedom Caucus tells them to do.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 20, 2023

House Republicans like Gaetz, Greene, and Boebert are “not serious people,” @JohnJHarwood tells @brianstelter. “They’re on television, they have podcasts or whatever, but they’re not built to do what politicians have to do to make government work.” https://t.co/TG9vlTO9By

— Michael Calderone (@mlcalderone) September 21, 2023

This is all GOP nonsense.

When @HouseDemocrats had a slim majority, we made investments in infrastructure and manufacturing. We cut the cost of prescription drugs.

Instead of honoring our bipartisan deal and protecting American jobs, McCarthy is consumed with keeping his job. pic.twitter.com/Hr8frpkeKa

— Katherine Clark (@WhipKClark) September 21, 2023

Thursday Evening Open Thread: GOP War to the <del>Knife</del> SporkPost + Comments (73)

Un-fucking-believable – How Is This Not Dereliction of Duty?

by WaterGirl|  September 21, 20233:37 pm| 203 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

How is this not dereliction of duty?

(The Hill)

House Republican leadership told members they can leave Washington on Thursday after the conference failed to make any progress on funding the government ahead of the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline.

But they advised lawmakers to be on call and ready to return to Washington if needed.

House GOP leadership had informed members that votes were expected on Friday into Saturday as discussions over government funding continued. But those plans were scrapped by Thursday afternoon after the House GOP conference faced a number of setbacks in its effort to avert a government shutdown.

The announcement from GOP leadership came shortly after a coalition of conservatives tanked a procedural vote to consider a Pentagon funding bill, marking an embarrassing loss for Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as he looks to unite his conference around the appropriations process.

It also came as enough conservative opposition emerged to block a revamped proposal for a short-term stopgap funding measure that leadership unveiled Wednesday night.

They really do want to burn the country down – they simply don’t care, as long as they can win the election.

I think I need some bunny pics.  Open thread.

Un-fucking-believable – How Is This Not Dereliction of Duty?Post + Comments (203)

Fired Up! Virginia’s General Assembly Elections (reposted for daytime peeps)

by WaterGirl|  September 21, 20232:15 pm| 72 Comments

This post is in: Join the Fight!, Open Threads, Political Action, Politics

First published on: Sep 20, 2023 at 19:30.  Reposting for the daytime peeps to have input.

Watch the video; you won’t regret it.  Barack Obama is in Virginia, telling the story of the “Fired Up!” lady and how it all got started.

Plus, Barack Obama from 2008 is hot.  (I did not just say that.)

Football season started Sept 7.  Baseball season starts March 28.  Work for my summer client ended on Sept 15.  Balloon Juice Fundraising and Political Action starts today.  Join the fight!

Barack Obama:

It shows you what one voice can do.  One voice can change a room.  And if a voice can change a room, it can change a city.  And if it can change a city, it can change a state.  And if it can change a state, it can change a nation.  And if it can change a nation, it can change the world.  Your voice can change the world.

We had a pretty big collective voice in 2021-22.  I like to think that our strategic approach and amazing fundraising on Balloon Juice had a big impact on outcomes in 2022.  I hope we can do it again.  Dog knows we are in the fight of our lives.

Virginia!

You guys know that the entire Virginia General Assembly is up for the vote on November 7, 2023 right?  

And that early voting starts in two days?  On Friday?  THIS FRIDAY.

Virginia has become a pretty reliable blue state in the Presidential election cycle, though they totally let themselves and everyone else down when they got complacent and elected the wolf in sheep’s clothing as their governor.  But that’s in the past, and there’s no point in rehashing that.

To the surprise of no one:  Republicans have more power in the Virginia Statehouse than their raw numbers would warrant.  With every seat up for a vote in the Virginia General Assembly (GA) this is a great opportunity to turn that around.  Not sure what we can do about all the dark money, but I wonder if the off-year elections could be changed?  (Maybe someone knows the answer to to that?)

Join the Fight!

Is there a role for us in Virginia?  Fundraising?  Postcards?  Volunteering?

After the last cycle, there seemed to be consensus among BJ peeps that we would continue to focus on electoral access and voter turnout in swing states, particularly among populations that are typically under-represented – black, brown, and native voters, along with former felons.  This year, if you guys agree, we want to add a focus on  young voters.  We are also focused on reproductive rights.

To the extent we target local races, it’s because there is a potential nation-wide impact.  And we are only targeting groups and races where our money can make a difference.  Do the upcoming Virginia legislative elections fit within these goals?

Maybe.

show full post on front page

In terms of national impact, a Democratic victory in Virginia would provide much needed continued momentum coming into the election year.  Hopefully it would put a major crimp in Youngkin’s plans for the presidency.  Further, the rollback of reproductive rights in Virginia would reverberate far beyond the state.  Virginia is one of – if not the only – Southern state in to allow abortions up to 26 weeks of pregnancy.

But does Virginia need our financial help?

Some background:

  • Governor Glenn Youngkin – the down-vest-wearing alleged future savior of the party – is a Republican.
  • The 40 member Virginia Senate is narrowly in Democratic hands.
  • The 100 member House of Delegates narrowly flipped to the Republicans in 2021, after Youngkin repeatedly shrieked “Critical Race Theory” and manufactured concerns about dirty books in school libraries and giant trans women in sports.
  • If Republicans retain control of the House of Delegates and flip the Senate, Youngkin could end the stalemate on reproductive rights, taxes, school “choice,” climate change and all the other items on the reprehensible Republican agenda.

The Good News in Virginia

There’s hope.

Redistricting:  In 2021, Virginia voters approved a new (and fairer) redistricting process. This led to a mass of retirements and exoduses in this cycle.  According to the Virginia Mercury:

The reasons for the 2023 exodus vary from legislator to legislator. For some, advanced age or illness were a decisive factor. But the dramatically different electoral maps created after voters approved a new redistricting process in 2021 have been a clear factor in the ongoing institutional shake-up, pushing many incumbents out and opening up more room for  candidates to run in new districts other incumbents can’t fully claim as their own.

“A lot of oxes got gored on both sides of the aisle,” said Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Rich Anderson. “I guess in that sense one could say it was a fair map.”

https://www.virginiamercury.com/2023/05/16/how-redistricting-reform-is-launching-the-virginia-general-assembly-into-a-new-era/

Momentum: There is Democratic momentum, both nation-wide and in Virginia.  As in most places, Virginia Democrats over-performed expectations in 2022.  A Democrat won a Congressional special election in February 2023 with three quarters of the vote (retaining a seat).  In the State Senate, an early 2023 special election flipped a Republican seat (which gave the Democrats control of the Senate).

Money.  The national Democratic party is not ignoring this election:  As of mid-September, the DNC – at President Biden’s direction – has invested $1,500,000 into campaign staffing and get-out-the-vote programming.  According to the Virginia Public Access Project, so far this cycle the Democrats have raised over $34MM to the Republican’s $20MM.  The numbers and the financial momentum are on our side.

The Wild Card:   There is a potential government shutdown looming at the end of the month.  While much of the country may shrug it off, the impact on Virginia could be devastating.  Hundreds of thousands of government workers in NoVa and the Hampton Roads area could be furloughed (and unpaid).  The economic fallout would be felt immediately.  This could benefit the Democrats if blame is properly assigned.

The Bad News in Virginia

Money is pouring in on the Republican side as well.  Youngkin’s unholy “Spirit of Virginia” PAC has raised $8,500,000 so far this year and posted a record-breaking fundraising total in the last quarter.  While significantly behind the Democrats, the Republicans are not rolling over.  And while his popularity has slipped a bit, Youngkin remains fairly popular in Virginia.

Possible Races to Target

Despite all 140 seats being contested, there are only a handful of true toss-ups, particularly in the Hampton Roads (Norfolk/Virginia Beach).  This is a former Republican stronghold trending purple.

According to the election analytics organization CNalysis there are four true toss ups in the House of Delegates.  This includes two vulnerable Virginia Beach-area Republicans who squeaked by in 2021, but whose districts acquired more Democrats in the recent re-districting.

The two other toss-ups are in open seats that voted for Youngkin, but also for Democratic candidates in the 2022 congressional house race.  (U.S. House)

Similarly, the three Senate toss-ups – two of which are open seats – also are in districts that voted for both Youngkin and the Democratic Congressional candidate in 2022.

https://cnalysis.com/articles/initial-forecast-virginia-2023/

After seeing the details, what are your thoughts on jumping into the VA races financially?

Door #1:  Yes, let’s get in right away and target the toss-ups candidates with the most potential and/or support local turn-out-the-vote groups.  Also, postcards.

Door #2:  Let’s hold our fire for the short term and see what kind of money pours into these Virginia races.  We’ll monitor the inflow through various sources, including the Virginia Public Access Project.  If we spot an opportunity – a promising candidate whose fundraising is lagging, for example – we’ll put up a thermometer.  Also, postcards.

Door #3:  Take a pass.  There’s enough money coming in – this is like the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.  But still do postcards.

What say you, BJ peeps?

I am very much inclined toward Door #1, but if you have a different preference, please share your thinking.

Basically, if you’re on board, we would set up something like the Purple House Races fundraising in 2022.

Also, if you have other thoughts about how to approach Virginia, we are happy to listen.

Beyond Virginia!

I have a meeting set for this Saturday with Four Directions.

Last Friday we met with one of the folks from Worker Power (boots on the ground in GA and AZ in 2022)

And I’ve reached out to Voting Access for All.

Generally speaking, I’m thinking we’ll want to raise money for some of the folks we have already identified and supported in the past, and support some new groups, as well!

We’re looking into opportunities to help groups related to Youth turnout – how do you guys feel about that?  It’s a bit of a break from our focus in the past.  On the other hand, young voters are much more diverse than in the past, and we’re looking for opportunities with HBCUs, so maybe it’s not much of a break at all?

Open thread.

Fired Up! Virginia’s General Assembly Elections (reposted for daytime peeps)Post + Comments (72)

Crash & Burn (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  September 21, 202312:29 pm| 167 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

Last month, I was nervously watching the radar in the wee hours as Hurricane Idalia moved up the Gulf Coast. It sure looked like we would get lucky again, but I didn’t relax until the eye passed our latitude.

It’s too soon to completely discount the destructive force that is Ron DeSantis; I won’t relax until there is a 0% chance of him being sworn in as POTUS on January 20th, 2025. But while Hurricane Meatball hasn’t passed our collective latitude yet, the latest track is mighty encouraging. NBC News:

The Florida governor, once seen as the top rival to former President Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP primary, sits in fifth place in New Hampshire, according to a CNN poll released Wednesday. He hasn’t visited the state, which holds the nation’s second contest, in more than a month.

A Washington Post/Monmouth Survey of South Carolina voters earlier this month found him in only slightly better stead — fourth place — trailing Trump and a pair of home-state candidates, former Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott.

Earlier this week, he held a fundraiser for his leadership PAC and campaign in oil-rich Midland, Texas, which featured several former Trump donors. He continues fundraising in Texas on Thursday.

“His campaign needs a kick in the ass,” one DeSantis ally said. “It’s dead in the water.”

The problem isn’t the campaign, it’s the candidate — maybe give him a kick in the ass? It won’t help, but they might as well try.

Open thread.

Crash & Burn (Open Thread)Post + Comments (167)

Challenges of paying monthly?

by David Anderson|  September 21, 202310:32 am| 24 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

In Health Affairs Forefront, Paul Shafer, Michal Horny, Stacie Dusetzina and I published a short blog post on the challenges of commercial plans requiring monthly deductible resets instead of annual resets.  Paul, Michal and Stacie have been playing with these ideas for a couple of years and I had been in the peanut gallery heckling the authors on pragmatic considerations.  So we tried to work out what we’re all thinking together.

We’re in an era of substantial first dollar cost sharing.  People have big deductibles.  The median American does not have the liquid assets to pay off their deductible.  We have fragmented policies that address some of the affordability challenges for some situations and some diseases.

For years, proponents of value-based insurance design have tried to make patients’ out-of-pocket costs more directly related to the value of care—with higher-value care costing less. For example, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) made certain high-value preventive services free to patients, although this policy is currently under threat in Braidwood v. Becerra. Another example is the monthly copayment cap on insulin costs for Medicare beneficiaries in the Inflation Reduction Act, which has helped nearly four million Americans. The White House is pushing Congress to make this policy applicable to all insured individuals, and nearly half of all states have passed insulin copayment caps to date.

Deductibles are intended to make individuals far more cost and value conscious users of healthcare.  This is problematic on a pragmatic basis as people are bad shoppers. When faced with a deductible, people just stop using services without considering the value of those services.  Additionally, there are substantial information gaps between what people think they are paying and what they actually are paying.  Finally, there is a simple problem.  Most people don’t use much if any healthcare services in a year.  Deductibles barely do anything to change incentives for folks in the bottom half of the spending distribution.  Deductibles also don’t bind or change incentives for people in the last quartile as their spending is often too damn high.  Deductibles may influence spending for people in the 3rd quartile of spending but there is not a ton of money there.  And most of this spending is likely to occur in a single event:

In a prior study of commercially insured US patients, we found that a hypothetical $500 monthly cap on in-network services would lower in-network out-of-pocket costs for nearly a quarter (24.1 percent) of commercially insured Americans, with those affected seeing their median annual out-of-pocket costs cut almost in half (-45.5 percent). For those in high-deductible health plans, the benefits would be even greater.

Monthly caps are simpler.  A number resets at the end of the month.  We also think it improves the incentive features as right now, people have a bad event early in the year that maxes out their deductible and then they schedule a lot of services for December at no marginal cost.  Monthly caps could change this dynamic.  It also improves equity as the current patchwork and caps rewards some conditions and diseases while a monthly cap treats all conditions the same.

We think that this makes the most sense in the commercial, self-insured market which is mostly large group employers.  These plans are regulated by ERISA so there is substantial benefit design flexibility. They also don’t have to worry about risk adjustment or actuarial value.  We are worried that if we hold actuarial value constant, maximum out of pocket expenses for individuals with chronic conditions could plausibly increase.  If we hold maximum out of pocket limits constant, premiums likely increase as actuarial value increases.  This is a tough trade-off.

We’re not sure if this is the way forward.  We think that this could be a way forward.

 

Challenges of paying monthly?Post + Comments (24)

Biden Announces American Climate Corps

by WaterGirl|  September 21, 20239:45 am| 120 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

it’s so nice having a president who can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Today, we are mobilizing the next generation of clean energy, conservation, and climate resilience workers.

Join us at https://t.co/dp0NctSzPp pic.twitter.com/vKjvLalUbV

— President Biden (@POTUS) September 20, 2023

It’s almost like he has big ideas, hires great people, and lets them implement the plan.

Join the next generation of climate action at https://t.co/dp0NctSzPp. pic.twitter.com/ZtPEzQy7z1

— President Biden (@POTUS) September 20, 2023

In other news – speaking of good people – and not-so-good people:

She resigned and kept her silence for years. Needs to address it now because of her nomination to the state supreme court. Totally honorable, total class act. https://t.co/dQogRbC09E

— Harry Litman (@harrylitman) September 21, 2023

Oh, and in case you are wondering, Rudy did not grope Cassidy Hutchinson on Jan 6. Just ask him – he would never do something like that!  (Rudy says.)  I hope he has plenty of time to think about that and everything else because Rudy has been ordered to appear in court, and he must remain in place for the duration of the defamation trial.  I hope they all have to sit through their trials.  You know, like regular people do.

Open thread.

Biden Announces American Climate CorpsPost + Comments (120)

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