Tremendous job, Balloon Juice Angels, donors, and everyone who provided encouragement, on being a major part of the Four Directions expansion into Virginia!
With our donors, BJ Angels and outside matches, we raised $76,000 dollars to register, motivate and turn out the Native American vote.
But there’s a lot more work to be done to pull off big wins this November.
Virginia could and should be the next Democratic Trifecta state. Abigail Spanberger held a significant early polling lead over the Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger had held a 17-point lead, but as of today that lead is down to just 7 points.
The Democrats hold a narrow 21-19 in the Virginia Senate. There are no Senate seats up this cycle – so the Republicans’ focus (and great hope) is to flip the House of Delegates that is currently held by Democrats, 51-49. Republicans are going all in, and we can expect more ugliness and brinks trucks full of dark money before the election.
But Democrats are going all in, as well, taking back Virginia from the Republican sweater vest who represents the party that no longer believes in democracy. Not to mention that Virginia is the last bastion of (relative) reproductive freedom in the South.
Momentum in the struggle to save our democracy
The momentum from a Democratic blow-out in Virginia (however you want to define “blow-out”) is sure to provide momentum for the Dems in 2026. We need this win.
In keeping with our goals for candidates, we’re concentrating our resources on under-funded challengers in Districts with flippable seats. Rather than spread our resources thin, we’re concentrating on two races in swingier SE Virginia, where there’s generally less money sloshing around than in the wealthier NoVa area. Our money can make a difference here! Virginia House Districts generally have roughly 86,000 people, allowing for more retail politics and fewer television ad bombardments.
Reintroducing… Kimberly Pope Adams (aka Good Kim)
…who we supported last cycle. Good Kim ran a valiant race against first term Republican Kim Taylor (“Bad Kim”), who won reelection by only 53 Votes – the narrowest margin in the 2023 Virginia elections (14,289 to 14,236). More on this – and on our post-election Zoom call with Kimberly Pope Adams – in a subsequent post.
Good Kim is running on:
- housing affordability
- increased health funding
- and protecting reproductive rights
- and more!
Here’s the transcript of an interview from the Virginia Independent:
https://virginiaindependentnews.com/politics/meet-the-candidate-kimberly-pope-adams/
Bad Kim is a horror show on reproductive rights. She has ties to “pregnancy crisis centers” – fake clinics designed to mislead patients about their reproductive rights. Here’s a round-up of her execrable first term record on the issue:
https://choicetracker.org/va/people/kim-taylor/62783488
Bad Kim is also:
- against sensible gun-safety measures
- a major proponent of school choice
- a reliable MAGA-like vote on most issues
* to her credit she was one of five Republicans to vote for a bill that would block marriage licenses from being denied to same-sex couples
Now meet Virgil Thornton
Virgil Thornton is a community leader running on a platform of economic justice and public safety reform. Like the Republican incumbent Cordoza, Virgil Thornton is Black. This race is sure to be a squeaker. The Hampton Roads area district leans Republican (barely). But Harris eked out a win of 1.1 points in 2024. The Republicans are nervous, and the complete rogues gallery of statewide Republican office holders (Gov, AG, Lt Gov) turned out for a recent Cordoza fundraiser.
For more on Virgil Thornton, here’s the website of “friends of Virgil Thornton.” It emphasizes his commitment to access to healthcare, economic equality and strengthening public education. https://virgilthorntonsr.com/
Republican Cordoza doesn’t appear to be excessively MAGA or too far to the right of the new low-standard Republicans. Maybe that’s what makes him vulnerable. Regardless, this looks like an excellent pick-up opportunity.
Possible other candidate opportunities
Last cycle we supported Michael Feggans. When his race was called in 2023, it was his seat that flipped the House back to the Democrats. Hurray for us! This cycle, he has the advantage of incumbency and a growing war chest, so he doesn’t need us this time around.
Our cardinal rule for candidate support: strategic donations! No matter how much we like someone, no donations that will be like salt in the ocean!
Similarly, Kimberly Pope-Adams highly commended challenger Lily Franklin in Blacksburg, who ran an excellent campaign and only narrowly lost the election, in spite of not receiving funding from the Democratic party. She’s back in the game, and she’s in it to win it. Fortunately, she currently holds a sizable financial advantage over the incumbent Republican. So we’re keeping our powder dry on this one until or unless dark money dropped as we get closer changes the calculation.
There’s one more possible exciting opportunity
But we won’t have information for you on that for another week or two, so we’ll just tease that here.
Caveats
We’re relying mostly on fundraising numbers from June. A lot can change by the time the third quarter numbers come out – especially after the usual suspects like Dominion Energy and Youngkin’s stupid PAC start pumping money into the races. We’ll keep an eye on Michael Feggans’ and Lily Franklin’s campaigns (and others) as possible targets for flash fundraising as we get closer to the election.
We have separate thermometers for the two candidates. Act Blue requires a target number, so we’ve set that to $7,500 each. That is neither a ceiling, a floor, nor a guarantee. We’ll leave these thermometers up between now and November.
Let’s make Virginia a trifecta state in November!
We need many more than the 15 Democratic trifectas we have now. This one is get-able, and a BIG WIN in Virginia will light a fire under Democrats.
At this point, the fire we can light might be our most important natural resource.
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