Apparently we’re back.
Just a couple of house keeping notes. First, since we were offline for a while, there’s no point having the title to the updates be War For Ukraine Update followed by the number of the update because we’re at day 97 of the war and we’d be at update 78 or somesuch, which just is weird. So it’ll now be the day of the war. Second, Cole has informed us all that we have to keep embedded tweets to the minimum – I think he indicated three total per post – given that we’re not running on full power yet. So for the time being we’re going to have less embedded tweets with images or video of specific places or events in Ukraine.
With all of that said, let’s get started.
Here’s the video of President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. There are no English subtitles this time; they’re probably locked up with the data that John is still trying to get recovered. There is an English transcript, which is after the jump! (emphasis mine)
Ukrainians!
All our defenders!
Finally, we have the specifics about the European Union’s sixth sanctions package on Russia for this war. The package was agreed.
Its approval and entry into force will take some time. But the key elements of the package are already clear, and most importantly – its direction.
European countries have agreed to significantly limit oil imports from Russia. And I am grateful to everyone who worked to reach this agreement. The practical result is minus tens of billions of euros, which Russia will now be unable to use to finance terror.
But it is also important to understand that European countries’ abandonment of Russian oil and other fossil fuels will accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources. Strategically, this leaves the Russian state on the sidelines of the modern economy. With such an aggressive policy and a course of isolation from the civilized world, Russia simply will not be able to adapt. So, it will lose. Lose economically.
We are also looking forward to the disconnection of one of the largest Russian banks – Sberbank – from SWIFT within the sixth sanctions package. Finally, there is the cessation of broadcasting of Russian disinformation channels in Europe. And new personal sanctions.
We will also work on new restrictions against Russia for this war. As soon as the sixth package starts working, we will start preparing the seventh. After all, there must be no significant economic relations of the free word with the terrorist state.
I discussed further sanctions policy of the European Union with President of Slovakia Zuzana Čaputová. I am grateful to her, a true friend of Ukraine, for today’s visit to Kyiv, for substantive negotiations and for an inspiring speech in the Verkhovna Rada.
From the first days of the full-scale war, Slovakia has become one of our most important defense partners. And we will continue this cooperation.
We also talked today about Ukraine’s European movement. Mrs. Zuzana personally helps accelerate the integration of our state. And we will always be grateful for that.
We are also preparing solutions for more effective management of processes at the borders of our states. In particular, joint customs control.
At the beginning of her visit to Ukraine, the President of Slovakia visited Irpin and Borodyanka and saw with her own eyes the destruction caused by the Russian army. Anyone who sees this for themselves no longer needs to be persuaded why Russia must bear maximum responsibility for this war.
I believe that Slovakia will provide all the necessary assistance to bring to justice all Russian war criminals and to rebuild everything they destroyed after the war.
Today I would also like to address those in Ukraine who are trying, so to speak, to “hurry up” the Armed Forces of our state or to indicate how to attack and where to repel enemies in the first place. Ukraine values every opinion. But Ukraine values every life first and foremost. And this is an axiom. And Ukraine will never do like Russia, which throws people into hell of battles just because Moscow wanted to seize something in a few days or by a certain date.
Our military, intelligence, the National Guard and all those involved in the defense of the state are gradually but inevitably thwarting all the plans of the occupiers.
The frontline situation must be assessed comprehensively. Not by one area, where there is the most tough situation and which attracts the most attention, but by the whole frontline.
The situation in the Donbas direction is very difficult. Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kurakhove are now at the epicenter of the confrontation. Given the presence of large-scale chemical production in Severodonetsk, the Russian army’s strikes there, including blind air bombing, are just madness. But on the 97th day of such a war, it is no longer surprising that for the Russian military, for Russian commanders, for Russian soldiers, any madness is absolutely acceptable.
We have certain success in the Kherson direction, as well as an advancement in the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are rebuffing the pressure of the occupiers in the Zaporizhzhia region, the key direction is Hulyaipole and Orikhiv.
In this broad picture, it must be seen that our defenders are showing the utmost courage and remain masters of the frontline situation, despite the fact that the Russian army still has a significant advantage in equipment and numbers.
Of course, everyone in Ukraine wants all our territories, all our people to be liberated today, as soon as possible. The full restoration of the territorial integrity of our state is our goal. But we must act carefully, valuing life.
Everyone at all levels must now be lobbyists for the supply of modern heavy weapons and modern artillery to our state. All those systems that can really speed up the victory of Ukraine.
Talk about it wherever it is useful and wherever it is heard. Speak to the politicians of the partner countries, to the representatives of foreign media, even to your friends abroad. This narrative of the need to provide Ukraine with enough weapons to win must be maintained constantly. I work for this every day.
I signed a new decree on awarding our heroes. 215 combatants were awarded state awards, 17 of them – posthumously.
Eternal memory to everyone who gave life for Ukraine!
Eternal glory to all who are fighting for our independence!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD (emphasis mine):
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on May 31 2022
The ninety-seventh day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya areas has not changed. No signs of enemy offensive formations were found. The main efforts of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus are focused on strengthening the protection of the state border.
The removal of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from the storage bases of the republic of belarus was noted. Their further transfer to the armed forces of the russian federation in order to make up for current losses is not ruled out.
In the Sicersky direction, the enemy did not take active action, no signs of the formation of strike groups were found. In order to demonstrate the presence and prevent the transfer of units of the Defense Forces to other areas, it keeps certain units of the Armed Forces of the russian federation in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
russian enemy fired a missile at units of our troops in the Sumy oblast from Su-30SM aircraft. Artillery and mortar shelling of border settlements continues.
In the Slobozhansk direction, enemy groups from the units of the Western Military District of the Armed Forces of the russian federation are trying to hold their positions and prevent the advance of units of the Defense Forces into the temporarily occupied territory.
russian enemy is preparing to resume the offensive in the areas of Izyum and Slovyansk.
In the Donetsk direction, russian enemy, with the support of artillery and mortar fire, is conducting active assault operations in the Sievierodonetsk and Bakhmut directions, and fighting continues.
russian enemy is trying to establish full control over the settlement of Sievierodonetsk and surround the units of the Defense Forces operating in this direction. Prepares for the offensive in the areas of Siversk and Raihorodok.
In the Kurakhiv direction, russian enemy did not conduct active hostilities, and carried out fire damage to our troops with the use of artillery.
In other areas, it continues to fire in order to restrain the actions of our troops and prevent them from being transferred to other, threatening areas.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is defending and mining the coast of the Inhulets River in areas of possible action by units of our troops. Leads a counter-battery fight. Inflicted air strikes with the involvement of army aircraft in the area of the settlement of Davydiv Brid, Kherson oblast.
In the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, russian enemy naval groups continue to perform tasks to isolate combat areas. One carrier of high-precision weapons, the Admiral Makarov frigate, which has up to 8 Caliber cruise missiles on board, remains ready for use.
The enemy is demoralized, suffering losses, in some areas hastily moving to the defense. Defenders of Ukraine continue to defend our land and gradually displace the invaders from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s today’s update from Britain’s MOD:
- (1/6) Russia’s capture of Lyman supports its operational main effort, which likely remains the encirclement of Sieverodonetsk and the closure of the pocket around Ukrainian forces in Luhansk Oblast.
- (2/6) Heavy shelling continues, while street fighting is likely taking place on the outskirts of Sieverodonetsk town.
- (3/6) Elements of Russia’s Southern Grouping of Forces are likely leading the most successful axis in the sector, supported by the Central Grouping of Forces attacking from the North. Progress has been slow but gains are being held.
- (4/6) Routes into the pocket likely remain under Ukrainian control. Russia has achieved greater local successes than earlier in the campaign by massing forces and fires in a relatively small area. This forces Russia to accept risk elsewhere in occupied territory.
- (5/6) Russia’s political goal is likely to occupy the full territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
- (6/6) To achieve this, Russia will need to secure further challenging operational objectives beyond Sieverodonetsk, including the key city of Kramatorsk and the M04 Dnipro-Donetsk main road.
Been a bit since we looked at one of these. As you can see the Russians are focusing on the space between Izium and Donbas. Specifically they’re trying to take Sievierodonetsk, which is the second largest population center in the Donbas and the one that Russia has not occupied. Here’s a better look from Kyiv Independent military correspondent Illia Ponomarenko:
Meanwhile, Russia has steady progress in Sievierodonetsk in hard urban combat. Nearly all forces avaliable are being thrown in.
At the same time, Ukrainian units keep fighting in the streets, but many also retreat to Lysychansk the main defense point on a higher ground. pic.twitter.com/DFeTHxU1PY— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 31, 2022
What’s going on here is that the Ukrainians are ceding territory to Russia. I’m not trying to downplay that Russia is fighting through the city, bombarding the daylights out of it and anything moving in it, and are taking it bit by bit. However, the Ukrainians have clearly decided that holding it does not currently make tactical, let alone theater strategic, sense given what Ukraine has to do in the Donbas campaign. And because Russia has not been able to actually encircle Sievierodonetsk, the Ukrainians can safely, or as safely as one does anything in a war zone, fall back to higher ground across the river in Lysychansk.
Russia’s push for Sievierodonetsk does not make much military sense. They don’t specifically need the city. Their failure to execute the encirclement of the Ukrainian forces there means that taking the city doesn’t even allow them to reduce that force. Rather, it allows the Ukrainians are pulling back to a better position.
Russia’s push for Sievierodonetsk does, however, make sense when viewed through the skewed, factually inaccurate, and completely made up history of Russia, the Russian people, Russia’s and the Russian people’s place in the world, and how Ukraine fits into this falsely revised history and nationalist mythology that Putin has bought into, as well as helped to expand. Putin, as well as both his official and unofficial agents, are still asserting that his re-invasion of Ukraine is not a war, not an attempt to commit genocide against Ukraine and the Ukrainians, but, rather, a liberation of Ukraine and Ukrainians. A special military campaign to remove the NAZIs that Putin claims have all but enslaved the Ukrainian people through propaganda and the creation and promulgation of a false history, which has alienated from their rightful, historical relationship with Russia. A special military operation to bring these wayward kin back into the Russian family where they belong while also protecting Russia and ethnic Russians/Russian speakers everywhere. From this perspective taking Sievierodonetsk is essential; even if all that is left is rubble, the dead, and the dying. Only by taking Sievierodonetsk can Putin claim that the Russian army has successfully completed this part of the campaign and made the Donbas whole by bringing its second largest city under Russian control.
It is this worldview that allows for statements like these to be made with all seriousness:
Here is a video with jarring quotes from Russian State Duma Deputy Defense Committee Chairman Vladimir Shamanov, former Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Airborne Troops, accused war criminal. He talks about Russia's horrific plans for Ukraine, its gov't leaders and journalists. pic.twitter.com/glE906igKY
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 29, 2022
To us, General Shamanov’s remarks, what he is describing and proposing are insane. They seem insane because we are outside of the context that Putin and Shamanov and others around Putin have bought in to as fact instead of the fantasy it is. But for those inside that context, what they are doing makes perfect sense.
In Kherson Oblast, in southern Ukraine, the Ukrainians have counterattacked and liberated Mykolaivka. From Ukrainska Pravda:
Ukrainian troops forced the enemy to withdraw from the village of Mykolaivka, Kherson oblast.
Source: Summary – General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18.00 hours
Literally: “During the successful offensive of the Defense Forces units, the enemy suffered losses and withdrew from the village of Mykolaivka, Kherson Oblast, which led to panic among the servicemen of other units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation” (there are several villages with the name Mykolaivka in the Kherson oblast, and it is not clear from the summary of the General Staff which one we are talking about – Ed.)
What does all this mean? It means that the Donbas campaign is not going to go as quickly as the campaign to protect Kyiv. As I wrote in the update Cole asked me to do for the newsletter that then got posted at the temp site (or whatever it was called), the bigger context is that the tactics that worked to keep Kyiv protected and the force structure – a combo of Ukrainian SOF, conventional forces, and Territorial Defenders/Irregulars – aren’t optimized for the Donbas campaign. For the Donbas campaign you need what we in the US would call big Army (conventional forces) conducting a combined arms campaign augmented by Special Operations Forces (SOF). This would then be paired with other SOF working in the Russian controlled areas doing Unconventional Warfare (UW) to organize Fall’s conceptualization of revolutionary warfare (guerilla warfare + political action) undertaken by Ukrainian partisans in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine.
Right now there’s all sorts of people with actual expertise making all sorts of extraordinary claims about what is going on. The war in Ukraine means armor is now obsolete or once the Russians take Sievierodonetsk they will have culminated are two I saw this evening. None of those making these arguments are providing extraordinary evidence to support their theses. If you come across tweet threads, columns, op-eds, and/or reports issued making extraordinary claims about what is happening in Ukraine, what will happen in Ukraine, or what Ukraine means for war and warfare in the 21st century take them with large grains of salt. The only things we can say so far that we have learned from the war for Ukraine is that everyone overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military, including those that specialized in studying it. And everyone underestimated Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. That’s all we know so far. It’s actually quite a lot, but let’s not oversell things.
I’ve been very up front since before the re-invasion that I’m sympathetic to the Ukrainians and their defense of their country. But that does not mean that they’re just going to breeze to an easy(ish) victory. Even if I think that they will ultimately prevail. Russia has a lot of artillery left and is using it. Russia is no longer advancing beyond its ability to conduct logistics support. Russia seems to have learned some lessons from what did not work in the campaign to take Kyiv and are applying them. I don’t think they’ll ultimately win, but I also don’t think this is going to be over by the end of June or July. At best, the Ukrainians will have attrited the Russians ability to advance sometime by August, the various weapons systems like longer range artillery that we and our allies are sending them will have been brought online, and then the war will once again shift. This time to the long, slow, hard, and deadly work of driving the Russians from the parts of Ukraine that they either have been occupying since 2014 or have taken since February.
President Zelenskyy clearly understands this reality, which is why he said this in his address earlier tonight:
The frontline situation must be assessed comprehensively. Not by one area, where there is the most tough situation and which attracts the most attention, but by the whole frontline.
The situation in the Donbas direction is very difficult. Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kurakhove are now at the epicenter of the confrontation. Given the presence of large-scale chemical production in Severodonetsk, the Russian army’s strikes there, including blind air bombing, are just madness. But on the 97th day of such a war, it is no longer surprising that for the Russian military, for Russian commanders, for Russian soldiers, any madness is absolutely acceptable.
We have certain success in the Kherson direction, as well as an advancement in the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are rebuffing the pressure of the occupiers in the Zaporizhzhia region, the key direction is Hulyaipole and Orikhiv.
In this broad picture, it must be seen that our defenders are showing the utmost courage and remain masters of the frontline situation, despite the fact that the Russian army still has a significant advantage in equipment and numbers.
Of course, everyone in Ukraine wants all our territories, all our people to be liberated today, as soon as possible. The full restoration of the territorial integrity of our state is our goal. But we must act carefully, valuing life.
Liberating the Ukrainian territories that Russia is occupying is not going to be quick or easy. Even once the Russian military is no longer able to advance because it no longer has the personnel or material to take more. Holding is easier than taking or clearing.
Before we finish, let’s spend a few moments with the op-ed by President Biden that is already up online in The NY Times and scheduled to run in tomorrow’s print edition. Overall I think it is a very solid op-ed. I think this is the best part:
My principle throughout this crisis has been “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” I will not pressure the Ukrainian government — in private or public — to make any territorial concessions. It would be wrong and contrary to well-settled principles to do so.
Ukraine’s talks with Russia are not stalled because Ukraine has turned its back on diplomacy. They are stalled because Russia continues to wage a war to take control of as much of Ukraine as it can. The United States will continue to work to strengthen Ukraine and support its efforts to achieve a negotiated end to the conflict.
I think this part either should have been omitted or left far more ambiguous:
We do not seek a war between NATO and Russia. As much as I disagree with Mr. Putin, and find his actions an outrage, the United States will not try to bring about his ouster in Moscow. So long as the United States or our allies are not attacked, we will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces. We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders. We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia.
I honestly think it is only there because every time President Biden or Secretary Austin have spoken about America’s interest regarding Ukraine’s defense of Putin’s re-invasion they have made it very clear that part of that interest is ensuring that Russia never has the ability to threaten another country again and that this includes Putin needing to be removed from power. It has been well reported that these statements, especially the latter regarding Putin from President Biden, seem to give his senior staff the vapors. As we’ve previously discussed, the team President Biden has surrounded himself with, a lot of whom have worked for and with him for a long time, seem to be exceedingly risk averse. This includes both the national security professionals and the political professionals. It serves neither President Biden, nor the US well.
We’ll leave it there. I’ll be back tomorrow with a discussion of what artillery the US is sending Ukraine and why the argument about whether or not it can or can’t be used to hit targets in Russia is a stupid and useless discussion. Among other things.
Let’s finish up with your daily Patron!
A bit of Patron in your feed
Dog Patron since the beginning of a full-scale war of Russia against #Ukraine became the most famous dog.
He has a state award and his own page on social networks. People write letters to him asking for a meeting and send gifts. pic.twitter.com/nklMCdKQMX
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 24, 2022
Open thread!
James E Powell
Hot Damn! He’s back! I mean, you’re back, Adam.
You’ve been sorely missed. I sure hope you’re doing well.
Mike in NC
We will always thank Putin for putting Donald Fucking Trump in the White House.
jackmac
Yay!! Welcome back Adam!!
Major Major Major Major
Yay, you’re back writing these! I missed them very much. Thanks.
Aw mannn and here I was all prepared to ask you if we were sending them rockets with adequate range compared to the Russian systems.
skerry
So glad you’re back, Adam.
LNNVA
I have really missed your reports and am so glad you have returned. Thank you.
Margaret
So good to have you back. Thank you!
Adam L. Silverman
@James E Powell: That Adam guy is always getting me in trouble!
Mallard Filmore
A video on reddit.com, a “feel good” item .
Two young boys working one of their “checkpoints”.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/uoo2rj/kids_war_report/
debbie
God, I’ve missed you. Twitter sucks as a substitute.
cbear
Thanks so much for the update, Adam! It’s wonderful to have a trusted and reliable source to help understand the Ukrainian situation without having to wonder about the motives and credibility of other reporting. You’ve been sorely missed during the recent “Troubles”.
Also, I really needed my Patron fix!
Adam L. Silverman
You are all quite welcome.
Also, I have no idea why there is a huge Silverman On Security Spy V Spy logo above the title of the post or how to get rid of it.
randal m sexton
Thanks for the update Adam. I have missed your input.
Mallard Filmore
(first try did not post, too many links? Only the video link is here now. I see my nym did not survive and I am in moderation)
A video on reddit.com, a “feel good” item.
Two young boys working one of their “checkpoints”.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/uoo2rj/kids_war_report/
Joy in FL
I really missed your posts, Adam. Thanks for taking time to explain so much of what is going on and why.
CaseyL
It is wonderful to have Adam’s analysis back on BJ where they belong!
Watching the latest turns has me very nervous for Ukraine. Too many Europeans seem to want the whole thing to be backburnered so they can make money or get oil from Russia. I’m also aghast at Erdogan unwavering in his opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Wombat Probability Cloud
Welcome back, and many thanks.
Grumpy Old Railroader
You have been missed. Your knowledge, analysis and insight have been my daily must reads.
debbie
I watched the Shamanov video earlier; his delusion is horrifying, and I look forward to seeing him and others in the dock, especially whatever those talking heads are called.
Is the general who led Russia in Syria still in charge?
Carlo Graziani
Adam! Welcome back! I can’t even express how much I’ve missed your Ukraine updates!
Grumpy Old Railroader
I got the eerie feeling he actually believes his own BS
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L. Silverman: I’d guess it’s associated with your user profile… or one of the tags/categories
Gin & Tonic
Good to see you back, Adam.
James E Powell
@Grumpy Old Railroader:
I don’t think there is any question that he believes what he is saying. He will never accept any other reality.
I am hoping that the governments & peoples of every nation bordering Russia hears and understands that what he is saying is the goal of the Russian state.
Sandia Blanca
Thank you for this post, Adam. Like the others, I’ve come to rely on your nightly posts for a clear-eyed view of what’s going on in Ukraine. And I’ve missed President Zelenskyy’s videos; not sure why, but there’s something very grounding about hearing him go through the day’s events.
Carlo Graziani
I LOVE the Spy vs Spy logo! it evokes my inner arrested adolescent! Please don’t get rid of it!
Adam L. Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: I had to upload it into the image library and I just set if for the “featured image”. I’ll check with Cole tomorrow.
Adam L. Silverman
Everyone is very welcome. I’m going to rack out.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L. Silverman: oh, well, I imagine that would do it.
featheredsprite
Welcome back. Every so often things in Ukraine get very confusing.
Torrey
Thank you for the update, Adam. I’ve been missing those.
In case anyone wants the subtitled version of Zelenskyy’s address, here it is.
Carlo Graziani
More seriously:
Russia fucked up its manpower requirements for this war. We don’t know where the cliff is, but there has to be one — a point where their KIA and other casualty rates simply overwhelm their battlefield manpower necessities. We can see hints of this in changes in Russian recruitment age requirements and other too-little-too-late measures. They can look strong, right up to the point where they crack up. Keeping the pressure on is the key — Ukraine has much more abundant manpower, and has been preparing for this war since 2014. There are literally millions of draft-age Ukrainian men standing by for muster, and a draft system ready to receive them. The Russian “mass mobilization”, by contrast, is a hilarious Russian media fiction.
Also: this is the summer that the Russian economy becomes de-industrialized. Weapon resupply is already highly problematic. But I believe that this is going to become a secondary issue. By Fall, Russian cities will have difficulty providing enough food — as in calories for citizen survival. The focus may be shifting away from Ukraine at that point.
Citizen Alan
The only thing I have to contribute to this discussion is my firm belief that Ukraine has to take control of the situation before the November elections in the US. Because if the republicans take either house of Congress, they will block any further US aid and probably tried to undermine nato. The November elections will determine whether agents of Vladimir Putin once again gain a commanding position listen in our government.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
Just adding my voice to welcome back Adam and to tell you how much you and your nightly updates have been missed. I’m so glad you (and Patron) are back.
Jay
Good to see you back, Adam.
Saw a Oryx post today about T84’s M’s spotted in deployment in Ukraine, and my friend Slava’s head was sticking out the turret commanders hatch.
I forwarded it to his wife.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
He’s back! He’s back! W00t! So missed your analysis.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L. Silverman: So glad your are back! I have really missed your daily updates!
I think it is OK for Biden to say that NATO has a no intention of directly engaging the Russian military unless attacked, but he should not have included the comment about discouraging the Ukrainians from attacking into Russia. The risk/reward for that kind of operation should be left to the Ukrainians. If the Ukrainian Army thinks a thrust toward Belgorod will threaten the logistics support for the Russian northern prong against norther Donetsk, & that they are capable of doing so w/ good chance of success & w/o placing too much of their forces at jeopardy, then that is up to them.
NATO should not be arming the Ukrainians for a march toward Moscow, but I highly doubt the Ukrainians have the ability or the inclination.
Tehanu
Great to see you back, Adam. Thanks so much for these posts.
oldster
Welcome back, Adam.
I sent my President a note of thanks today for the new rockets and for all of the support he has given to Ukraine.
I hope they will bring the day of victory a few weeks closer.
Eolirin
@YY_Sima Qian: I think there’s space between “we are not encouraging” and “we are discouraging”. I think this is more just reiterating that the US is not trying to use Ukraine to wage a proxy war against Russia.
bjacques
Welcome back! In the interim I made do with DailyKos, but they’ve lately been burying their Ukraine updates. And what you said about extraordinary claims…I’ve long ago learned to settle just for ordinary evidence, but even that goes missing. Funny, that.
Anyway, I’ve missed ya!
EDIT: I can live with Biden’s disclaimer, since he got the military package through, and that speaks louder. I think if Ukraine armed forces manage to cut the land bridge and their irregulars go to work on even the relatively short Russian supply lines, within the next couple of month, it would encourage those supporters starting to waver now.
lowtechcyclist
As one commentator pointed out, depending on where you are, you can attack Russia from Ukraine with a rifle. And the notion that Russia can invade Ukraine, occupy large swaths of territory, turn cities into rubble, commit heinous war crimes, etc. while the notion of Ukraine’s doing the least bit of damage to Russia proper is beyond the pale, is simply nuts.
But the real question here is, the MLRS systems we’re providing Ukraine with, are they good enough to do the job? That is, will they be sufficient to push Russian artillery back out of range of Ukrainian-held territory, and bring the long-range demolition of Ukraine’s cities and towns to an end?
So I look forward to tonight’s discussion of the artillery situation.
lowtechcyclist
@Carlo Graziani: Certainly Russia’s manpower losses are severe. But Ukraine’s are pretty substantial too at this point: here, Zelenskyy says “We’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day killed in action and around 500 people wounded in action.” That’s a lot for a nation the size of Ukraine.
Chris T.
Kind of a silly / pointless question, but it’s the kind of thing that bugs me. I finally got around to watching the last “new Equalizer” episode from this season and one guy has been seen in “Sevastopol” recently. But they pronounce it “SEV-a-STO-pol”. I thought the correct pronunciation was “se-VASto-POL” (with the stronger accent on the “vast”ish part). Which is right?
zhena gogolia
@Chris T.: If you’re speaking Russian, it’s se-va-STOH-pul. I don’t know about Ukrainian.
zhena gogolia
Hi, Adam! We missed you.
zhena gogolia
Ooh, like Carlo, I want the Spy vs Spy to stay!
O. Felix Culpa
I’m glad you’re back too, Adam. Thank you for compiling this info and providing your insights.
zhena gogolia
I don’t think gospodin Shamanov is going to live to see his glorious prognostications come true.
debbie
Carlo Graziani
@lowtechcyclist: I don’t want to seem callous or dismissive about the human costs of the war. The final reckoning will be appalling no matter what.
What I am pointing out is a decided advantage that Ukraine has over Russia in manpower replacement. The Russians are staring at the bottom of their manpower barrel, and scraping up dregs here and there by ad-hoc fixes and rearrangements, running risks elsewhere in their empire, changing draft age limits, rushing untrained recruits into battle, feeding broken, exhausted, battle-weary formations back into the meat grinder, and so on. They never provided a system for mass mobilization, and it takes years to do that even in ideal peacetime logistical conditions.
Meanwhile Ukraine has had a mass-mobilization plan in preparation for years, and an orderly system for bringing and new recruits into the UA. There is no prospect of the UA running out of soldiers, no matter how brutal the war gets. This is simply not true of the Russian army.
As brutal and ugly as the following statement sounds, it may be the Ukrainians’ soundest war strategy to trade casualties with the Russians until the Russians run out of men. With the right weapons, the trade can at least be one-for-one.
Jinchi
Thanks for the update Adam. I’ve been following the news on Ukraine using mainstream sources, but it’s been like living in an information desert the last couple of weeks.
Jinchi
But are there the weapons to support them?
Carlo Graziani
@Jinchi: My read of US policy is that there will be.
Miss Bianca
Adam’s back! Thank God! Now it *really* feels like Balloon Juice again!
(no offense to WG or JC or anyone else who has worked so tirelessly to get us back online).
Haroldo
Welcome back and thank you, Adam
Mousebumples
Thanks for resuming the updates, Adam. Your insight is appreciated, as always.
charon
@Citizen Alan:
New Congress begins in January, not November.
Bill Arnold
Welcome back – sorely missed. Have had a dozen tabs opened, mined from your previous posts, but really missed your analyses.
Re tweet embeds, if you strip the <script async… stuff at the end of the embed, it will probably become a text embed with no performance issues. Also, the text is there if the tweet is later deleted.
Bill Arnold
A way one gets rid of (or at least seriously weakens) Putin without directly trying “to bring about his ouster” is to flood him and those around him with opportunities to make bad decisions, selected with an eye to those delusions entrenched in the siloviki that would encourage bad decisions. Crafted efforts to maximize the opponent’s errors, basically.
J R in WV
So glad to see you again, Adam!
Love your review of the news from the fronts in Ukraine.
kalakal
So glad to see you back Adam. Your information and analysis has been sorely missed