As usual, let’s start with President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. Video with subtitles below (apparently I’d somehow toggled them off while we were on involuntary hiatus…) followed by the English transcript after the jump.
Great people of great Ukraine!
Exactly one hundred days ago we all woke up in a different reality. Exactly one hundred days ago, different us woke up. When Ukrainians are awakened not by the sun’s rays, but by the explosions of missiles that hit our homes, then completely different Ukrainians wake up.
In 2014, Russia came to us with one word, with a new word. And this is the word “war”. On February 24, Russia added another word to it, making the phrase “full-scale war.”
And during a hundred days we found or received, saw or wanted to erase other words. There are few of them. They are different. But they reflect what we have experienced.
Among these words are some new to us. And those that were forgotten by our parents, but that we had to recall. Well known to everyone on the planet. And those that all people have to remember with horror. Painful words. And those that really give us hope. All of them are important. It will be right to recall them all today. One hundred days – one hundred words.
First of all, these are two words: “our heroes”. First of all, people who have been defending our state since the night of February 24.
And then – the Ukrainian words: “palianytsia”, “Armed Forces”, “Stugna”, “Cossack”, “Zmiinyi” and… Of course, “Chornobaivka” is a word that has sounded many times already and in which you can see everything about our resistance and about our enemies.
And also – foreign words that have become native to Ukraine: “Bayraktar”, “Harpoon”, “HIMARS”, “Starlink”, “Rzeszów” and… Of course, “Lend-Lease” – another word, just one, but it reflects 100 days of struggle, 100 days of diplomacy, 100 days of support.
And a word that reflects something important in our character. In the Ukrainian character. The “Javelins” that frightened the enemies because they did not expect the armor wouldn’t save them. And then caused a smile, our smile, when Ukrainians also painted “Saint Javelin”.
Well, the word to which everyone in Ukraine raises a toast – “Neptune”.
Every day we had words that are much more than just words for everyone now. Hard words. “Hostomel”, “Borodyanka”, “Okhtyrka”, “Chernihiv”, “Kharkiv”, “Kherson”, “Izyum”, “Melitopol”, “Mariupol” and “Azovstal”.
And with them – “army”, “artillery”, “Marines”, “border guards”, “intelligence”, “National Guards”, “police”, “territorial defense”, “aviation”, “our heroic pilots”… And also the word “ghost”. The ghost of Kyiv. Who destroyed enemies and survived.
We may not have heard all these words as many times in our lives as we have heard them in these hundred days. And every time we hear them, we know: they give us the time and opportunity to live as long as we are given. Given by God. Not by the enemy.
“God” – this word, this appeal has been heard more than once. And always in a special way.
There were also words that our enemy wanted to erase. “Volnovakha” and “Saltivka”, “Popasna” and “Severodonetsk”. These are words that we will definitely write again. But in our way. Just like “Bucha”. Just like “Mariupol”. And we will surely write them next to the word “tribunal”.
For other words – “filtration”, “deportation”, “torture”, “execution”, “carpet bombing”, “missile strike” – to surely get an answer. Answer with just one word – “justice”. Justice that will become a full stop after the temporary words for us “occupation”, “Mordor”, “orcs”. Of course, they will leave our lexicon. We will definitely drive them out of our land.
There were also words that gave hope and for which we fought particularly. “Humanitarian corridors”, which have become a road of life for hundreds of thousands of people and made it possible to overcome another word, the terrible word “blockade”.
From the first day we have words the distance between which is as between darkness and light. We avoid one word. This word is “refugees”. And due to another word, we believe that millions of our people have a future. It will be at home, in Ukraine. This word is “displaced persons”.
A lot has changed.
When we hear the word “Patron”, we remember the most famous sapper of Ukraine. And when we hear: “marathon”, we understand that it is not about sports at all.
And of course, a lot of deadly words have been added to our lexicon. The words no Ukrainian ever wanted to see. And the words a normal person cannot be proud of. “Iskander”, “Kalibr”, “Solntsepyok”, “phosphorus bombs” and more.
For some reason we did not see their vaunted Armata tank. I think they were afraid of our new phrase: “tractor troops”.
And one more phrase is worth mentioning: “the second army of the world”. At first it looked threatening. Then it was dangerous. After Bucha – it caused disgust. And now – only a bitter smile. Because what’s left of it? Of the army, which was called the second army in the world… War crimes, disgrace and hatred.
And – numbers instead of words. When you see the number of killed every morning. The number of wounded. The number of shelling occasions. The number of missiles. When next to the word “children” there is a new number every morning. Today – 261. Already 261 children were killed by the Russian invasion. For what? There are no words that can answer this question.
Words have appeared that are now very common. Which sound daily. But we must make sure that for our children they no longer mean what they mean to us today. So that they can perceive them only as history. First of all, it is the word “ruins”. But also – siren, air alarm, curfew, checkpoint, barbed wire. And the word – mines.
There will be many more words that everyone will know. Which will make sense for everyone. And which will give a chance to millions. These are the words – reconstruction, candidacy and membership, guarantees and security. And definitely the word “return”. Of course, based on the word that was a dream, but will become a reality – “liberation”.
These are the words of our future! These are the words about what we will do to our red viburnum, to our glorious Ukraine.
The words about where the enemy warship is heading and will always head. About what to do with the occupiers when someone says: “Vova!”. And of course – our folklore already – “Good evening! We are from Ukraine!”.
From Ukraine, where the field is blooming, but her hair is getting gray. From Ukraine that stands and will stand.
Ukraine, whose glory and freedom have not yet perished. Ukraine, to which we say – glory! Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the nation! And everyone knows the next phrase: “Death to the enemies!”
Because there are three words we have been fighting for for a hundred days already after eight years: peace, victory, Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s today’s operational update from the Ukrainian MOD (emphasis mine):
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on June 3, 2022
The hundredth (100) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
No signs of formation of offensive groups were found in the Volyn and Polissya directions. On June 1, combat training of units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus began at the Vyzhlovichi test site in the Brest region. The threat of missile strikes from the territory of the republic of belarus remains.
In the Sicerskyy direction, the enemy did not take active action, no signs of the formation of strike groups were found. In order to clarify the location of the positions of our troops, the enemy conducted reconnaissance with the use of UAVs in some areas of Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts. It fired a missile at the settlement of Krasnopillya in the Sumy oblast and fired mortar fire at the settlement of Mykhalchyna Sloboda in the Chernihiv oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy is concentrating its main efforts on restraining the advance of our troops in the direction of the State Border. He continued to fire on units of the Defense Forces using aircraft, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, mortars and tanks. Exploration is underway to find weaknesses in the defense of our troops and determine further areas of action. Logistical support and strengthening of enemy troops are not stopped.
In the Kharkiv direction, the russian occupiers continue to defend themselves, destroying civilian objects in the city of Kharkiv. They launched an air strike by Mi-8 helicopters at the positions of our troops in the areas of the settlements of Slatyne and Dementiyivka.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy was preparing to resume the offensive, concentrating a group of up to twenty battalion tactical groups. In order to improve the tactical situation, it tried to launch an offensive in the directions of the settlements of Barvinkove and Sviatohirsk, but was unsuccessful.
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy concentrated its main efforts in the area of the city of Siverodonetsk. Under cover of artillery fire, he stormed residential areas in the eastern part of the city. Has partial success, active hostilities continue.
The enemy led the offensive in the directions of the settlements of Bakhmut, Soledar and Lysychansk. Has no success, retreated to previously held positions. He tried to take control of the left bank of the Siversky Donets River and create conditions for its forcing by the main forces of the group.
In the Lyman direction, the occupiers used jet and barrel artillery in the areas of Shchurove and Brusivka.
The enemy did not wage active hostilities in the Avdiivka, Kurakhiv, Novopavliv, and Zaporizhzhia areas. Mortar, barrel and jet artillery shelling was recorded in the areas of Pisky, Mykolaivka, Poltavka and Pokrovske settlements.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is defending, in some areas trying to regain lost ground. It carried out artillery fire and intensified air reconnaissance.
The situation in the Bessarabian direction has not changed significantly. No signs of formation of enemy offensive groups were found.
The main efforts of enemy naval groups in the Black Sea and Azov Maritime Zones focused on isolating combat areas and blocking civilian shipping in the northwestern Black Sea.
Forced mobilization of civilians continues in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk oblast. Threatening criminal responsibility, the command of the occupying forces is trying to make up for the losses of units they suffered in the fighting against the defenders of Ukraine.
According to available information, the command of the armed forces of the russian federation is taking measures to intensify reconnaissance and sabotage activities in Ukraine. To this end, the recruitment and training of mercenaries for the formation of sabotage and reconnaissance groups with their subsequent activities in Ukraine. Preference in the implementation of this selection is given to residents and former residents of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts who are fluent in the Ukrainian language.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s today’s operational update from the British MOD:
And here’s a time lapse representation video they released to show how things have shifted in time and space over the past 100 days of Ukraine’s defense against Putin’s reinvasion.
2/2 Above all, it was based on wildly optimistic assessments about the welcome Russian troops would receive in Ukraine. Russia has now adopted a “strategy of attrition” and is achieving slow and costly gains in the Donbas. #StandWithUkraine
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 3, 2022
And here’s a similar time lapse visualization from NEXTA:
A chronicle of 100 Days of War in #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pl7nOfMnt3
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 3, 2022
As we move from day 100 to day 101, I want to highlight a couple of things tonight. The first is from Christopher Miller’s reporting. His most recent focuses on the damage that Russia has inflicted on eastern Ukraine and the efforts of Ukrainians living under this constant thread to survive, aid others, and, if possible, escape.
RAIHORODOK, Ukraine — Mark Holtsyev knew the window to rescue desperate residents of Lyman before Russian forces razed the town was closing fast.
The tall, amateur equestrian turned volunteer paramedic jumped in his ambulance and hurtled down the road, past rocket craters and plumes of black smoke rising from the surrounding fields.
Holtsyev is one of dozens of volunteers who have been risking their lives day in and day out, zipping over some of the most treacherous roads of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region since Russia’s invasion in February. In April, when Moscow shifted its focus and military might to the east, the task grew more dangerous by the day. Now every dash into a beleaguered town here is a serious gamble.
“We managed to rescue 300 people yesterday, 500 the day before. But we’ve only taken 100 today because the fighting is very intense,” said an exasperated Holtsyev between evacuation runs one day last week. “It’s terrible. People are afraid to even move.”
As Russian forces pulverize everything in their path in a scorched-earth campaign to capture as much of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions as possible, eastern Ukraine has largely emptied out. Businesses are boarded up, traffic has disappeared and public squares are lifeless. But tens of thousands of people remain caught in the crossfire with nowhere to go as the battle for the Donbas grinds on. And they are paying a heavy price.
By midday, it had grown so dangerous in and around Lyman that authorities were ready to call off the operation. But Holtsyev and a handful of other volunteers, police officers, soldiers and bus drivers kept at it.
At Raihorodok, a small town on the outskirts of Lyman, they huddled quickly over coffee and cigarettes to discuss their route and confirm the addresses of people they needed to find. Artillery shells were exploding all around and drawing closer every minute. Then Holtsyev and the others jumped back in their cars and raced toward the city.
They arrived back in Raihorodok 40 minutes later with a couple dozen people. They would be the last evacuees of the day.
Among them was Nina Tykhomirova, 92, with lines drawn into her face like a map. In nearly a century of life, she’s endured a lot, including World War II and Soviet rule over Ukraine. Two large men carried her in a blanket from a van to Holtsyev’s ambulance. Her bright blue eyes and floral-patterned neck scarf betrayed the horrors she said she had witnessed: artillery shells crashing into her neighborhood, homes on fire, people cowering in fear in their vegetable cellars, bodies in the streets.
She was evacuated with nothing but a couple of sweaters wrapped around her fragile frame and a plastic bag with her personal documents that she gripped tightly in her left hand.
“Where am I going?” she asked, trembling.
“First, away from here, grandma. You will be safe,” Holtsyev said, closing the ambulance doors.
Under constant, heavy shelling, thousands of civilians in Ukraine’s east have been confined to the tenuous safety of basements and garden cellars for weeks or months. Time spent in the open means exposing oneself to weapons of war that figuratively and literally tear people apart.
Life under Russian assault is measured in minutes, steps and millimeters; the difference between life and death here has narrowed to a sliver. Those who try to flee do so at great risk to their personal safety; some interviewed by POLITICO during a week of reporting along the frontline described being forced to dash down contested roads while under fire or crawl through fields littered with landmines.
Others, like Tykhomirova, are too fragile to leave under their own power. Many more lack the means, whether money or a vehicle, to flee. Though disenchanted with the Ukrainian government for what some say is a lack of respect and attention paid to the eastern regions, almost no one wants to take their chance with the Russians.
Thousands have died while contemplating their meager options.
To be precise, between Feb. 24 and May 30, at least 4,149 civilians were killed, including 267 children, according to the U.N. Human Rights Office. The true numbers of civilian casualties are much higher but can’t yet be fully counted because of active fighting and lack of access to areas under the control of Russian forces, the organization added.
The deaths bring the total number of civilians killed as a result of Russian military aggression in Ukraine to more than 7,500 over the course of eight years. Prior to Feb. 24, 3,404 civilians had been killed in the war in the Donbas, which broke out in April 2014. A vast majority of those casualties occurred in the first nine months of the war, when the fighting was at its peak. Several ceasefire agreements that never fully materialized kept the fighting at a simmer, with each side trading pot shots from well-worn trenches.
Lyman, a once-quiet town surrounded by a forested nature reserve and the bone-white chalk mountains, was once home to 20,000 residents — more than 43 percent of which were ethnic Russians, according to local data — until people began spilling out in recent weeks. It had largely avoided hostilities, save forsome street fighting with automatic rifles and grenade launchers in 2014.
Now it’s synonymous with Russia’s brutal new military campaign in the Donbas, demolished homes and shattered lives.
“We can never go back. There is nothing left there for us,” cried a woman brought to the Raihorodok staging area carrying several bags of clothing and possessions, her two young children in tow. “They are bombing everything. Our city is dying.”
Much, much more at the link. Miller also has a lot of pictures, some video, and additional commentary regarding this reporting in this tweet thread.
As I wrote during the first week of the war, as well as several times since then, one of my major concerns was that Putin was just going to level as much of Ukraine as possible. This has remained one of my key strategic worries. That while Putin may have failed so far and seem to continue to be failing to achieve his theater strategic goals, he would reduce as much of Ukraine to rubble because of his need to either possess Ukraine or destroy it so as to keep anyone else, including the Ukrainians themselves, from having it.
And that by doing so – by reducing as much of Ukraine as possible – Putin would still be advancing his regional and geo-strategic objectives by creating two overlapping humanitarian crises: one of refugees and one of famine.
From The Washington Post:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is digging in for a long war of attrition over Ukraine and will be relentless in trying to use economic weapons, such as a blockade of Ukrainian grain exports, to whittle away Western support for Kyiv, according to members of Russia’s economic elite.
The Kremlin has seized on recent signs of hesitancy by some European governments as an indication the West could lose focus in seeking to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, especially as global energy costs surge following the imposition of sanctions on Moscow.
Putin “believes the West will become exhausted,” said one well-connected Russian billionaire, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. Putin had not expected the West’s initially strong and united response, “but now he is trying to reshape the situation and he believes that in the longer term he will win,” the billionaire said. Western leaders are vulnerable to election cycles, and “he believes public opinion can flip in one day.”
The embargo on Russia’s seaborne oil exports announced by the European Union this week — hailed by Charles Michel, president of the European Council, as putting maximum “pressure on Russia to end the war” — would “have little influence over the short term,” said one Russian official close to Moscow diplomatic circles, also speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. “The Kremlin mood is that we can’t lose — no matter what the price.”
The Kremlin has pointed out that the E.U.’s move has only provoked a further surge in global energy prices and says it will seek to divert supplies to other markets in Asia, despite a ban on insuring Russian shipments that was also imposed by the E.U. and Britain.
This posture suggests that the Kremlin believes it can outlast the West in weathering the impact of economic sanctions. Putin has little choice but to continue the war in hopes the Ukraine grain blockade will “lead to instability in the Middle East and provoke a new flood of refugees,” said Sergei Guriev, former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The Kremlin’s aggressive stance seems to reflect the thinking of Nikolai Patrushev, the hawkish head of Russia’s Security Council, who served with Putin in the Leningrad KGB and is increasingly seen as a hard-line ideologue driving Russia’s war in Ukraine. He is one of a handful of close security advisers believed by Moscow insiders to have access to Putin. In three vehemently anti-Western interviews given to Russian newspapers since the invasion, the previously publicity-shy Patrushev has declared Europe is on the brink of “a deep economic and political crisis” in which rising inflation and falling living standards were already impacting the mood of Europeans, while a fresh migrant crisis would create new security threats.
“The world is gradually falling into an unprecedented food crisis. Tens of millions of people in Africa or in the Middle East will turn out to be on the brink of starvation — because of the West. In order to survive, they will flee to Europe. I’m not sure Europe will survive the crisis,” Patrushev told Russian state newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta in one of the interviews.
In another interview last week to the popular Argumenty and Fakty tabloid, Patrushev said Russia is “not rushing to meet deadlines” in its military campaign in Ukraine.
The Russian military has been gradually making gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, and rather than seeking an immediate and decisive battle, Putin believes time is on his side, the Russian billionaire said. Putin “is a very patient guy. He can afford to wait six to nine months,” the billionaire said. “He can control Russian society much more tightly than the West can control its society.”
Russia’s potential losses due to the E.U. ban on its seaborne oil exports could be minimal, said Sergei Aleksashenko, a former deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, who now lives in exile in the United States. If Russia is able to divert the entire seaborne volume to India and China, Russian losses as a result of the ban could total only $10 billion, he said.
Putin’s economic advisers will “tell him what the estimated loss is from the embargo, and he will laugh quietly,” Aleksashenko said. “He is not changing his course.”
Much more at the link!
Finally, I want to just finish up with a bit more about the basic Soldier supplies issue we’ve been discussing. Also from The Washington Post:
In the three months since Chris left the United States to join the war in Ukraine, he has fought, he said, in some of its diciest battles, in places like Irpin, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
A former member of the U.S. Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment, he went to Ukraine with extensive experienceconducting nighttime raids in Iraq and Afghanistan. But until recently, he was unable to employ itagainst Russian troops because the Ukrainian units with which he has been paired lacked the necessary technology.
“In the American military, these kinds of things get provided. The night vision and thermals, those are things I can’t afford,” saidChris, who spoke on the condition that his full name not be disclosed, citing the sensitivity of his work in Ukraine. “Without it, it was just difficult. … It’s pretty terrifying to be at the front and you can’t aim your weapons systems about half of the time.”
The Washington Post interviewed Chris in May and verified his military credentials through official service records. He’s part of a small, shadowy network of former military personnel and small-scale contractors aiding Ukraine’s war effort by providing advanced, commercially available combat gear to front-line units engaging Russian forces at close range. Such efforts, they say, enable Ukraine to exploit the vulnerabilities of what is generally a larger, more technologically advanced Russian military by targeting and taking out forces as they approach.
It’s a delicate venture, one that involves close scrutiny of U.S. laws governing the sale and distribution of sensitive military equipment, people familiar with the effort say. At least three members of Congress have been approached by groups seeking guidance on how to speed applications for government approval to export materiel that is closely regulated.
Weapons and other equipment have been flowing into Ukraine in recent weeks from a host of NATO countries.Since the start of the Russian invasion, the U.S. government alone has provided almost $4 billion in security assistance to Kyiv, with billions more authorized for use in the coming weeks and months. According to the Pentagon’s accounting, the equipment sent to Ukraine includes more than 50,000 sets of body armor and helmets, 2,000 optics and laser range finders, night-vision devices, thermal imagery systems and more.
“The Ukrainians have told us repeatedly that they do not need additional small arms from the United States,” Navy Capt.Mike Kafka, a Pentagon spokesman,said in response to questions about these private efforts to supplement Ukraine’s arsenal. “We remain in constant communication with Ukraine about their capability needs. … Once the equipment is delivered to the Ukrainians, how they distribute it inside Ukraine is up to them.”
Ad hocgroups working to help the Ukrainians say certain Western military aid is not getting where it needs to be fast enough or in sufficient supply. “There is a massive disconnect from the very top to the guy on the front lines,” said Ryan Gisolfi, co-founder of Delta Level Solutions, a security firm established this year that is helpingmove military equipment obtained independently of Western governments to special operationsunits in Ukraine.
Hunter Ripley “Rip” Rawlings, a retired Marine lieutenant colonel, went to Ukraine at the start of hostilities and has been working through his group, Ripley’s Heroes, andwith other foundations and vendors to transfer nonlethal military gear and medical equipment. “The military aid packages that are moving through, they are … not night-vision goggles and they’re not body armor,” Rawlings said in an interview from Kyiv. “So we’ve filled a niche — and the niche is large.”
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
A few weeks ago, Chris, the former Army Ranger, acquired advanced night-optical devices and thermal-optics devices fromone of the groups in Rawlings’s network, Project SIRIN. The organization formed this year and countsChris among its on-the-ground network, helping to identify where there are needs for such equipment.
Project SIRIN is a small group of Americans and Canadians, almost exclusively veterans like Chris with special operations experience, that raises money largely through crowdfunding and donations from other veteran-backed organizations. Neither its business model nor its motivation is unique: In the past three months, several such groups have sprung up in the United States and Europe to source and send materiel to support Ukrainian fighters. They bankroll their efforts through appeals for donations or the sale of Ukraine-themed merchandise.
To date, most groups that have managed to do this work successfully have focused on things like medical supplies, vehicles and communications equipment. Project SIRIN’s attempt to move military materiel brings a series of extra hurdles. Military-grade weapons are tightly controlled, so while the group waits for the U.S. government to approve its export license, it buys specialized equipment from domestic and foreign distributors, including firms that cater to dedicated hobbyists with high-end gear.
Delivering the goods to Ukraine — which also happens without government sponsorship — depends on personal connections forged through the often cryptic ties that bind the community of special operations troops and veterans. Secrecy is hard-wired into the organization’s culture: Despite wanting to draw attention to their work and the need that inspired it, the organizers of Project SIRIN refused to disclose their full names, fearing direct reprisals from Russia and its supporters. The organization is a subsidiary of the Ukraine February Fund, which was registered in Pennsylvania this year and is awaiting approval of nonprofit status. Its officers are not identified in public records.
Patrick, a nonveteran who handles communications for the group, said the decision to focus on night vision and thermal optics came after extensive discussions with special operations units in the Ukrainian military, police and national guard.
“We were reaching out to them, going: ‘What are you guys missing right now?’ And that was the No. 1 answer: night vision, night vision, we need night vision,” he said. “We all know that antitank and MANPADS have proliferated in this conflict … and that’s been a game changer. It hasn’t been the case for NODs. … There’s just not enough for the number of qualified people.”
Shipping any military-grade equipment from the United States requires approval from the State Department and adherence to export controls established in the International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Project SIRIN’s application is being evaluated, a process that has taken months, even with support from Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), whose staff has advised the group on how to navigate the process, his office confirmed.Kinzinger has also indirectly supported the group’s efforts financially, via a donation to Rawlings’s group from funds collected through the congressman’s political action committee, Country First.
Other lawmakers have been approached by groups seeking help with providing Ukraine night-vision equipment, drones, secured communications equipment, cybersecurity systems and body armor. Thus far, congressional efforts to help expedite the application-review process have been unsuccessful.
For now, those organizations trying to help say they are buying high-end civilian products that mimic the functionality of military-grade equipment, while plumbing European suppliers to source and ship equipment legally through other means.
Project SIRIN organizers say they have given Ukraine nearly a quarter-million dollars’ worth of gear this way, including 22 night-optical devices, eight thermal-vision units and one drone. Rawlings said he has brought into Ukraine about 60 sets of night-vision goggles and about 20 sets of thermals, relying on U.S., Polish and Ukrainian groups.
Much more at the link!
I honestly don’t know what to make of the reporting on this. I see the request for funding and donations, I’ve read the accounts, and I have no doubt that the Ukrainian military is facing logistical hurdles. Not least of which is trying to get the material and equipment – from large to small – that is being provided by the US, Canada, Britain, Australia, the EU member states, Japan, New Zealand, and other states to the right places as quickly as possible. At the same time some of the people that seem to be amplifying some of these requests seem to always be very eager for publicity. So we keep monitoring and see what else develops.
Your daily Patron!
The legendary sapper, #Patron-the-dog, came to St. Mykola Hospital in #Lviv yesterday to support the war-torn children.
Photo: First Medical Association of Lviv.#UkraineUnderAttack #UkraineRussianWar pic.twitter.com/YDFqVcus1L
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 2, 2022
On Children's Day landmine finder dog #Patron attended a children's festival in #Lviv. He was greeted with placards and gifts, and people chanted his name.
NEXTA TV https://t.co/SaOKEUsS3g pic.twitter.com/iXRltxsX8p
— Radio Free Ukraine (@radioukraine1) June 3, 2022
Open thread!
debbie
Those time lapses are really very clarifying. Thanks, Adam.
Medicine Man
What do you rate the odds that we (the West) buckles in the face of “hardship”, Adam?
JAFD
Salutations, Mr. Silverman !
Good to be reading your reports again, and many thanks.
Glory to Ukraine !
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Nikolai Patrushev, Putin heir apparent? I am wondering if the real point of this war is the wreck the Russian army so power can be transferred from Putin to another Beria clone.
Mike in NC
Past time that Moscow was nuked off the face of the Earth.
Carlo Graziani
@Medicine Man: the “hardship” of the West is noise, compared to what is about to happen in Russia between now and Fall. The West will experience some annoying inflation. Russia will experience full reverse industrialization by mid-summer, and likely urban food shortages — as in actual per-human calorie shortfall — by the time the sun starts to get low on the horizon.
Adam L. Silverman
@Medicine Man: I think Putin is counting on the GOP at least retaking the House. Which will both end any funding for Ukraine after January 2023 and completely tie up the Biden administration with frivolous “oversight” investigations that are actually political witch hunts.
He’s also counting on a refugee crisis in Europe that can be used to by his extremist catspaws in the various EU member states to weaken the EU and NATO.
Carlo Graziani
In any event, I’m going to just come out and say again that Zelenskyy is the second coming of Churchill, as a unifying speaker and statesman. There is nobody that I would rather meet. I’m a, er, fanperson.
MobiusKlein
@Mike in NC: No fucking nukes allowed, even to kill Putin. Just fucking no.
Amir Khalid
@Carlo Graziani:
In the near term there’s going to be a serious food-security problem because of this war, maybe even rising to the level of a crisis, in Africa and the Middle East and other markets for Ukrainian grain. Russia has been stealing Ukrainian grain and blockading the ports through which Ukraine exports it. This has already led to rising food prices and a risk of shortages. Biden has mentioned it, but it doesn’t seem to be getting much attention in America.
Mallard Filmore
@Carlo Graziani:
A YouTube video from the channel “UATV English” (UATV is funded in whole or in part by the Ukrainian government.)
title: “Intercepted! russian troops’ lowers low. They start raping russian civilians even in russia”
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbZqgZffMkw
One voice on the call says there are “dozens” of rape allegations in the prosecutors office. It should be possible to verify official charges … but then, I won’t be doing the work.
Amir Khalid
@Mike in NC:
There are a lot of innocent Muscovites whom we have no quarrel with.
Yutsano
@Amir Khalid: We can certainly avoid collective punishment. We can also avoid destroying precious relics like St Basil’s Cathedral. Nuclear weapons should never be an answer. Except against aliens.
Carlo Graziani
@Amir Khalid: Yeah. I just don’t think it’s appreciated what the colossal supply-chain shock produced by the export-control sanctions and the hog-tieing of the Russian financial sector is going to do to the Russian economy’s ability to feed it’s cities in the next few months, irrespective of how much grain it steals.
The Russians seem to think they have plenty of time. I believe that they are, again, deluding themselves. Russia will begin starving before Africa does, in my view,
Andrya
@Adam L. Silverman: @Adam L. Silverman:
Adam, thanks so much for your posts but: your comments touched on something that absolutely terrifies me. It seems likely that the Republicans will take the House in the midterms: and the Republican media have been paving the way to a pivot towards pro-Russia. I don’t see how Ukraine wraps this up prior to Jan 2023. Can Ukraine keep going on EU aid alone? Will the EU even keep committed if the US bails? If Ukraine falls because the US bails it would absolutely break my heart.
Mallard Filmore
@Andrya:
Is there no hope of the DOJ taking out enough GOP Senators and Congressmen to keep the Democrats in charge?
Another Scott
@Amir Khalid: Anders Aslund at the Atlantic Council has more details on the grain issues.
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
@Mallard Filmore:
At a minimum we all have to work/contribute (and, since I am a Theist, I will also say pray) to keep the House (and Senate). No one is going to do it for us: we are the help we have been waiting for.
NotMax
‘@Andrya
Republican agitprop.
Likely? No. Conceivable? Yes.
Historically tenable hypothesis, but on the other hand history is pretty much devoid of examples of the months of upping the ante wackaloonisms falling from the lips of a majority of one party’s candidates yet to come.
West of the Rockies
@Mallard Filmore:
There is always hope. Losing hope is often giving up and accepting shit burgers.
Heidi Mom
@Carlo Graziani: And the British people rejected Churchill after the war ended and they had to choose a peacetime leader. I hope that doesn’t happen to President Zelenskyy, but the world so often seems to tire of its heroes.
Philbert
The Dems should pass another big aid package to Ukraine before the elections. More and more of the GOP will oppose it, so use that in the campaign against them. The public is with Ukraine.
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani: Agree 100%.
Adam, thank you as always. Hearing the kids chanting Patron’s name was a much-needed moment of joy.
Andrya
@Heidi Mom:
In the 1945 general election, WW2 was already won. There was no reason to vote for Churchill based on his heroic stance during the war. Churchill supported right wing economics- among other things , no national health. If I had been a Brit born in 1915, I would have supported Churchill in 1939, but I would have supported Clement Atlee (Churchill’s opponent) in 1945.
Calouste
@Heidi Mom: The Brits we’re right, because Churchill turned out to be a pretty shitty peace-time leader when they gave him another go in 1950.
ian
@Carlo Graziani:
Since no one else has said it in this thread: Churchill was a racist monster. He let 3 million Indian people starve. He let young men of his own country die terrible deaths at Gallipoli. He had 0 compunctions about mass bombing European cities. Please do not idolize him, please do not compare other people to him.
Joe Falco
@ian: Agreed. Hopefully in the future, if Ukraine survives this war, people will call a leader that shepherds their people to victory under the most challenging of times as being a “Zelenskyy” and not “Churchill”.
Andrya
@ian: You are absolutely correct, but let me quote Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn: the line between good and evil runs through every human heart. Churchill was a horrific racist, but he had a moment of moral clarilty in 1939. My hero, FDR, not only ordered the Japanese internment (horribly bad) but turned away the ship St. Louis- filled with Jewish refugees from Europe- most of whom died in the holocaust. The history of political operators includes very few Martin Luther Kings.
Torrey
@Carlo Graziani:
I don’t disagree, Carlo, but I’m gonna see your Sir Winston and raise you a Volodymyr. I get the basis for comparison–effective and rhetorically adept wartime leaders–but Sir Winston began as the son of a prime minister and the grandson of the Duke of Marlborough, with an Oxbridge education and the kind of accent that established his status as one of the givers-of-orders and that conveyed a sense of stability and security at the time. He also occupied a long-established office in a stable parliamentary democracy. Being the British prime minister during wartime wasn’t a new thing. Not to take anything away from Churchill–it takes nothing from his achievements to note that he began with some advantages. But Zelenskyy is having to make the whole thing up as he goes along. He’s president of a country that is, in terms of independence and democratic self-rule, where the U.S. was at the start of the War of 1812. (Come to think of it–and I speak as an American–our actions in 1812 don’t really bear looking into; we weren’t exactly the Ukrainians in that conflict. Ask any Canadian.)
So I would argue that he’s not a second Churchill; he’s the first Zelenskyy. He’s the guy future leaders will be compared to.
So yeah, what you said, and then some.
(Except that I don’t particularly want to meet him, but I doubt I’m in much danger of that.)
ETA: I see that Joe Falco got there first.
piratedan
@NotMax: yeah, for some reason the idea that a platform of:
women is chattel, get barefoot and nekkid and make me a sammich
guns is good, too bad you had kids
Trump is simply wunnerful and a role model for all
everything is the fault of Democrats, they can’t even cheat good
the border is aflame in illegals and child trafficking and drugs… (oops that was us doing the child trafficking… move along)
yes we committed sedition, so what?
teaching kids that once America did bad things is simply unacceptable
somehow, that platform doesn’t strike fear into my heart and THAT’s what they’re selling. It’s the same old media attempting to normalize this bullshit because geez, when we had normal political parties, history usually played out this way before, whatever could have possibly changed?
TriassicSands
In the US we don’t need to know about anything until it becomes a crisis. Preferably, late stage.
It’s right there in the Constitution somewhere: Do not act unless something has reached crisis proportions.
To do so might be considered a high crime or misdemeanor!
TriassicSands
Please reword before Republicans see that. I suggest using extra-terrestrials.
bluejersey43 (fka texasboyshaun)
@Mike in NC: Good God, what a fucking ghoul you are. Delete your account.
NotMax
‘@piratedan
This, to the power of infinity.
Every time the sentence blockquoted in #19 is trotted out as some sort of truism is another paper cut to the body politic. Harmful to do their work by repetition of it as inevitable.
Joe Falco
@TriassicSands:
Or even worse, being considered unserious!
YY_Sima Qian
Speaking of Churchill, here is another (not well known) racist whopper concerning China:
“I think we shall have to take the Chinese in hand and regulate them. I believe that as civilized nations become more powerful they will get more ruthless, and the time will come when the world will impatiently bear the existence of great barbaric nations who may at any time arm themselves and menace civilized nations. I believe in the ultimate partition of China – I mean ultimate. I hope we shall not have to do it in our day. The Aryan stock is bound to triumph.”
Her certainly had a pivotal role leading Britain at its darkest hour to stand against Hitler, & an important role in defeating the Nazis (but then, Stalin played an even bigger role), but people in the Global South assess figures such as him & often come to different judgment on the overall merits & crimes.
Carlo Graziani
In Re: Churchill: I know what he believed. By our own standards he was a dick. All of that is true. But.
There is a peculiar characteristic called “moral courage” that is independen=t of belief., and extremely rare in statesemen. In rare circumstances, such as 1939, it can, in my opinion, actually make the difference between national despair and national defiance. In my opinion, another such circumstance occurred, exceptionally, in 2022. Ukraine is, in my opinion, exceptionally fortunate for that circumstance.
livewyre
@Andrya: Well-cited – it bears emphasizing that we can’t wait on some grand figure to make things right for us. It’s everyone’s work to take the systemic bigotries we’ve been steeped in and put them to bed in whatever ways happen by.
NotMax
‘@TriassicSands
Cue up Firesign Theater (0:00 – 0:25).
;)
livewyre
@Carlo Graziani: Not to quibble too much, but I would hesitate to assign that kind of characteristic to any individual, for worry of idolizing the one at the expense of the circumstances that buoyed them. I don’t think anybody has the capacity to be responsible for the courage of a nation, and honestly I’m thankful for that.
Besides, I take one look at a photo of the guy and get reminded who practiced that look in a mirror – not to mention what else was copied and why. Yeah, would rather hope that particular figure was one we can dispense with. Both of them.
Ruckus
Republicans stepped on their genitalia with SFB and many of them have gone full on crazy. I’m not predicting a horrible election for them because my prediction abilities are, well, in the minus category. But. They seem to be going all in on the crazy. Now many of their supporters will take that as a sign from above but I’d bet that many of them actually see the crazy. It only takes a little bit to take them to a solid second place. David Hogg has been pointing out that this time does not seem like the others, counter protests for the rights of guns has been almost non existent over the shootings of the last few days. More people are starting to say no more, people of deep republican backgrounds. The shooting in TX of an elementary school, kids spreading the blood of their dead friends on themselves so they don’t get shot? That is different, that is starting to be noticed by people on the other side.
My point is that there is an opportunity here to make this about actual life, which republican politicians seem to not be able to scrape up 1 shit, let alone 2 shits to give about it. Some of them are going full tilt crazy about actual humans having a say about anything – in a democracy. The tide may be turning, we need to think about this and at least attempt to make a change. I don’t think it will be easy, any win will likely be close, but I think we have a pivotal moment in front of us and we have to take note of this and make as much of it as we can. Do not despair that all is lost, it isn’t. Do not stop fighting to win, winning is possible, we can do this, take back our country for all of us, not just the wealthy con artists that rule the republican party.
NotMax
‘@Ruckus
Shorter version (if you’ll permit me the liberty):
Don’t just get angry, get busy.
Ruckus
@NotMax:
Never use 6 words when 600 will do.
I’ve got to keep my typing up to speed, accuracy is still a ways a way.
Geminid
The Institute for the Study of War puts out maps of showing the territory held by either side. The ISW maps consistently show a blue crosshatched blob within Russian lines, designated as an area of Ukrainian “partisan” activity. It lies in the area between Zaporizhna(sp?) and the Sea of Azov. There’s a story here, and I wish I knew more.
Cameron
Question for Adam, since you’ve got expertise and I’m an Old living in an Old community: is this real? Are we really providing Russia with parts for weapons?
https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/us-made-parts-keep-russias-artillery-firing-in-ukraine/
Geminid
@Cameron: I did not read that article closely, but I think it concerned parts that we have supplied Russia in the past. Sanctions should have ended this now.
Nelle
@Geminid: That is the area where my dad grew up. I occasionally see updates from that area. All about trying to get food to people, though. They are under occupation and saying nothing that could be construed as taking any kind of position.
lowtechcyclist
@Carlo Graziani:
We’ve seen how little the ruling class of Russia considers the well-being of its people. I’m not sure this will matter.
Cameron
@Geminid: Probably just my lefty tendencies, but I wouldn’t put it past the MIC to cash in regardless of America’s stated policies.
Geminid
@Nelle: I’ve read about some ambushes and night time hit and run raids around Melitopol. I guess I need to research the geography of this area, see if it is hilly and forested, a good place to hide.
The Russian army in the south is probably not numerous enough to cover the area behind its lines. I doubt if they can even man those lines in sufficient numbers to keep people from going in or out. I guess we’ll know more if and when Ukraine’s conventional formations mount a counteroffensive in this are.
lowtechcyclist
@NotMax:
But I’m looking for the same old place!
Geminid
@Cameron: That’s possible. But the MIC is making a lot of money now, and there are plenty of legal buyers to sell to without risking the penalities for violating the sanctions regime.
Geminid
@Nelle: Can you describe that part of Ukraine? The area of “partisan activity” seems to be a few dozen miles inland, and not very close to any major cities.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@TriassicSands: You do understand the US is a food exporter? All Putin is doing is making all those Midwest very happy.
Cameron
@Geminid: True dat. I guess I’m just into magical thinking – I wish the horror in Ukraine would stop. But I also wish the horrors in Myanmar and Yemen and…….https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrm9fxyct1o
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Here we go again; why by nature is brutality. What else was the US going to do to compel the British Empire beyond raid shipping and ravage Canada? Asking politely didn’t work.
I’ve seen English historians get all smug about they won the War of 1812, yet the Ohio River valley is part of the US, that Indian Nation project of Tecumseh’s the British were supporting was crushed and the British backed off on impressing American sailors.
sab
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:Is the transportation infrastructure available? Getting grain from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean is very different from getting grain from the Great Plains to the Atlantic then across the Atlantic into the Mediterranean.
Geminid
@Cameron: Yemen’s ceasefire has just been extended for two more months. Fighting has not completely stopped, but those poor people are finally getting a break. The U.N. has called conditions in Yemen the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
I think the Houthis and the “government” have recognized that neither side can push the other out. There may be a defacto partition of the country, but that beats a war I think.
NotMax
‘@Cameron
Meanwhile it’s an open secret Turkey is poised to commence a new incursion into Syria. Erdogan banking on other NATO countries turning a blind eye to that by using his previously stated opposition to Finland and Sweden joining the alliance as a bargaining chip.
Torrey
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I am not a historian, but my understanding from those who are, and who have some expertise in the matter of the 1812 kerfuffle, is that among the multiple issues that precipitated the event was the U.S. desire to grab at least a big chunk of Canada. We weren’t just pressuring the Canadians in order to make a point to the British.
And we didn’t get Canada. I think it’s helpful to keep that in the record. We didn’t win the War of 1812–my understanding is that there wasn’t a clear winner–but the toxic “We’ve never yet lost a war” that was flung about as a reason for staying in Vietnam relied on ignoring the complexities of the War of 1812.
Michael Cain
@sab:
The vast majority of US grain exports are barged down the Mississippi and leave via the Louisiana ports. I haven’t been following the weather to see if this has been one of those springs where flood or drought has screwed up river transit.
Historical note: This has been true for a long time. One of the things that Lincoln gave consideration to in fighting to keep the South from leaving was the problems the Northern grain producing states would have if their export channel was suddenly controlled by a foreign country.
rjm
@Cameron: The parts mentioned in the source article are commercial or consumer products with wide wide distribution chains, eg the canon cameras (were) sold in the US as the t7i model, saito engines are intended for large model airplanes, and the ublox gps and stm microcontrollers are available worldwide for a few $. Many of the parts are obsolete, though at low rate production like this I’d expect they are rolling changes into the newer units as necessary (eg ublox lea-6 chipset is at least 10 years old, but the m8n would be a super easy, also inexpensive, replacement)
If production of these drones stays at a few hundred a year I think it would be very easy for Russia to source these kinds of parts, eg through “consumer” imports from china or other countries even if western sanctions are really,really tight.
If they want to build a lot of drones, hundreds of thousands-millions, or if they want them to be very resistant to jamming and have really good sensors (low light, infrared, navigation that works in the absence of gnss (gps and the Russian, European & Chinese alternatives) then that’s going to be hard with sanctions.
SamIAm
@Joe Falco:
Hear, hear!
J R in WV
@sab:
There is a huge infrastructure in the mid-west of America dedicated to moving grain from huge grain elevators into barges on the river systems, down the Mississippi to deep sea ports on the lower Mississippi and the Gulf Coast. There ocean going bulk freighters are loaded and can transport that grain to any harbor in the world.
If there aren’t floods on the rivers, if tornados don’t interfere with harvests, if there isn’t a drought in the grain farms, if, if… Plus they’re mining fossil water from deep aquifers to irrigate those huge farms… who knows when that will end by pumping mud into the irrigation systems? Because it will end that way eventually…
And reading on I see that I’m not the only person here aware of the riverine transport systems. As a kid I sat on the river bank and watched stern wheeler tugs moving bulk cargo on our river systems. Long time ago. My grandma grew up in a riverboat town in KY when steamboat sternwheelers were the only method of commercial transport…
Geminid
@J R in WV: As a young man, Abraham Lincoln took at least one flatboat down the Mississippi to New Orleans. That’s how he got his first close look at slavery. I’m not sure what cargo the flatboat carried. The boat itself was sold for lumber once it was unloaded.
Lincoln’s grandfather grew up in Rockingham County west of Harrisonburg, Virginia. He took his family down the Valley road almost to Tennessee, and crossed the mountains into Kentucky, where he bought a farm. The elder Abraham was killed while he was plowing, ambushed by a Native American who did not recognize his land title.
The grandfather had a wagon to transport his family to Kentucky. Some years later Abe Lincoln’s mother came to Kentucky by the same route. Nancy Hanks was not so prosperous, and she walked the way, barefoot.
War For Ukraine Day 101: Ukraine Counterattacks In the East!
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