We Interrupt our regularly scheduled GOTV fundraising for a quick candidate money drop: Tony Vargas (NE-02) and Senate challenger Dan Osborn.
We’ll get back to NCAAT in a day or so (and there’s an active Angel match with 6x donations) so please carry on with that if you are so inclined. But we figured we’ll all be distracted with he debate, so it seems possible that this might be a good day for candidate donations, too.
Balloon Juice is heading to NEBRASKA! Nebraska? Yes, Nebraska.
US HOUSE SEAT: NE-02
The race between incumbent Republican Don Bacon and Democrat Tony Vargas is close.
Fun Facts:
- Madame VP is running ahead in CD 2, and the incumbent Republican, Don Bacon is vulnerable.
- This year is a rematch between Don Bacon and Democrat Tony Vargas.
- Bacon beat Vargas by only three points in 2022, and off-year election with middling turnout.
- We supported Vargas in 2022 to the tune of $5,011.
- Bacon is now unpopular with Republicans in Nebraska, for being partly sane about a couple of issues.
- Bacon had a bruising primary, with 40% of Cornhusker Republicans voting for his far right opponent.
- While Vargas holds a slight Q2 fundraising advantage, the NRCC will surely dump more $ into NE-02.
NEBRASKA SENATE RACE
The big surprise in Nebraska is the Senate race.
Incumbent Senator Deb Fischer is not particularly beloved in Nebraska. As a result of her lukewarm support, the darkest of dark horse candidates – a political independent named Dan Osborn – is nearly tied with Fischer in four separate surveys. And this is without the overt support of the Democratic party.
Who is Dan Osborne?
Osborn is a blue-collar union worker and political newcomer, who is running as an independent. He’s backed by the UAW and other labor organizations, but is not accepting endorsements from the Democratic party (undoubtedly a smart strategy in Nebraska). Here’s more on Dan. (No paywall.)
Needless to say, Dan Osborn is lagging in fundraising. Are these polls complete outliers? Perhaps. But the momentum is with the Democrats in NE-02, aka CD 2, which Osborn needs to carry handily to outweigh rural Nebraska. It’s NE-02 when we’re talking about the House; it’s CD 2 when we are talking about the electoral college.
Will it help that Tim Walz is a native Nebraskan who has already held a wildly successful rally in Omaha?
NEBRASKA CD 2 (ELECTORAL COLLEGE)
Nebraska, like Maine, awards its electoral votes by Congressional District. Nebraska CD 2 (essentially, greater Omaha) is perpetually up for grabs – Obama won it in 2008 and lost it in 2012. Trump won it in 2016 and lost it in 2020.
What’s more, the website 270ToWin Electoral College Tie Finder shows at least three plausible electoral outcomes that lead to a 269-269 tie.
If that happens, Nebraska CD 2 could decide the election. One way or the other. Let’s help make sure it goes our way, eh?
THE NEBRASKA EFFORT IS AN INVESTMENT
This is an investment in regaining the house.
This is an investment in possibly (although perhaps unlikely) picking up an unexpected Senate seat.
This is an investment in helping to drive turnout in CD 2 to help secure its potentially tie-breaking electoral vote.
QUICK NOTE ON STRATEGIC CANDIDATE FUNDRAISING
A quick note on strategic candidate fundraising.
It’s bears repeating that “close” and “toss-up” and “Republican incumbent in a Biden district” are not the same as “needs money” or “this would be a good strategic use for our money.” That’s why we’re mostly keeping our powder dry on candidate fundraising until later this month, when we’ll have a better idea of who is overlooked and underfunded.
But we’re rolling out Nebraska now, in honor of the debate tonight, and you can expect a candidate component for the upcoming Operation Blue Arizona! (As soon as we finish NCAAT.)
We are hoping to raise $10,000 for Osborn and Vargas. And we may revisit one or both of these later, but for now $5k each seems like enough to make a difference. If you want to contribute to one of these races and not the other, or give more to one than the other, click on Customize Amounts before you enter your dollar amount.
These two Nebraska races fit our strategy of narrow-targeting those races that potentially have the most impact, and where our funds can make a difference.
Side note: Click on “here’s more on Dan” above if you want to read the story about how Charlton Heston (yes the gun-humping actor) got Dan Osborn fired from his job waiting tables. I guess Charlton Heston was always a dick.
One more thing. Now that we’re heading toward the final stretch, we’ve added a new page under 2024 Activism – Strategic Candidate Fundraising. It’s similar to the Targeted Fundraising page, which is focused on the organizations we are supporting. Strategic Candidate Fundraising is where you’ll find all the candidate fundraising as the final weeks progress.
Besides that, this can be an open thread to talk about the debate and anything else.