Balloon Juice

Michigan: Nobody ever said rebuilding a major state after decades of doom and gloom would be easy.

by WaterGirl| December 4, 20232:15 pm| Leave a Comment

This post is in: Democratic Politics, Open Threads, Politics

Go Michigan! (Open Thread) — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer shows off her mittens featuring Michigan’s upper and lower peninsulas during the Michigan Inauguration on Jan. 1, 2023. (Andrew Roth/Michigan Advance)

How Michigan became the progressive powerhouse of the Midwest

LGBTQ+ equality, abortion rights, climate change policy, voting rights, education investment, gun reforms, unions on the march — the Mitten State has it all.

For years, Michigan was a national laughingstock, as bad news stalked the state like the villain in a bad ‘80s horror film.

There was the one-state recession of the early aughts, thanks to the bruised auto industry that almost collapsed during the Great Recession that followed, and two partial state government shutdowns.

Then came Republicans shoving Right to Work through a decade ago in an attempt to reverse Michigan’s economic fortunes (but really to placate rich donors), despite the vocal protest of over 10,000 union members on the Capitol lawn that made international news.

And then there was the Flint water crisis, the crown jewel of GOP former Gov. Rick Snyder’s dismal, eight-year tenure, as the state’s effort to save a few bucks in a city the administration didn’t care about resulted in Flint residents, particularly children, paying the ultimate price with their health.

It’s easy to forget how exactly the bad old days felt in Michigan.

🌸

But today, Michigan is known as the anti-Florida (thanks to some savvy marketing from Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer), a veritable liberaltopia in the Midwest, which is expected to play a vital role, yet again, in picking the president next year.

This year, Whitmer partnered with the first Democratic legislative majority in roughly 40 years to not only reverse longstanding right-wing policies, but to pass major legislation furthering progressive causes like abortion rights, climate change policy, LGBTQ+ equality, education funding, voting rights, gun reforms and labor rights. All this took place as unions are again on the march thanks to massive victories like the UAW’s “Stand Up Strike” against the domestic automakers headquartered in Michigan.

For too long, it was easy to feel helpless in Michigan.

Efforts to protect LGBTQ+ people from discrimination started and stalled. Anti-abortion lobbyists successfully kept chipping away at basic health care rights. And a devastating 2021 school shooting in Oxford resulted in thoughts and prayers, but little immediate legislative action.

But as it turns out, it wasn’t that leaders didn’t care about issues deeply important to most Michiganders. It was just that not enough of them were in a position to do anything about it.

🌸

Michigan is proof that real progressive victories that change the lives of millions are possible in swing states, not just deep-blue California.

So can this success be duplicated?

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Like almost anything in politics, the answer is: not exactly. A unique set of circumstances, laws and players made this possible in Michigan. But there are still crucial lessons for leaders and advocates across the country.

Michigan did have some structural advantages that others don’t that helped prime the state for progressive triumphs this year.

The Mitten State’s relatively straightforward process for ballot initiatives and constitutional amendments (which many states lack — and Michigan Republicans have unsuccessfully tried to clamp down on) laid the groundwork, with voters approving an independent redistricting process and voting rights amendments in 2018.

That helped even the playing field after decades of gerrymandering and recent Republican attempts to make it harder to vote. Fairer maps for the 2022 election and policies like same-day voter registration and no-reason absentee voting, definitely helped propel Democratic candidates to victory in key legislative seats last year.

Michigan also had the gift of an eye-popping $9.2 billion budget surplus at the beginning of the year, bolstered by an unexpectedly strong economy for which Biden has yet to get credit and the last GOP-controlled Legislature that sat on billions of federal COVID aid naively hoping that Republican Tudor Dixon would vanquish Whitmer in the election (she lost by 11 points).

But, hands down, the biggest boon to Michigan progress has been having Gretchen Whitmer at the helm.

Voters chose a governor in 2019 who came armed with the most experience since Republichan John Engler was elected in 1990. In her more than 14 years in the Legislature, she endured it all in the minority as the state rotted under austerity. As a minority leader, she did thankless work behind the scenes on issues like Medicaid expansion, as Republicans weren’t eager to boost her stature by passing landmark legislation bearing her name.

And so, when Democrats defied the odds and ran the table in last year’s midterms, Whitmer was exceptionally ready to govern with the majority.

Whitmer was ready on Day 1 to finally deliver on Democratic priorities. Deftly drawing on institutional knowledge, her team had a clear plan of attack. The governor showed her methodical mastery of the legislative process that requires constantly balancing competing interests and resolving maddening intraparty conflicts.

We have all the best people. We just have to work hard to get them elected.

We have to believe that we can win, we have to make plans for what we want to accomplish, and we have to set things in motion so we can hit the ground running when we do win.

Should we all be thinking about the role we want to have in setting the stage to make it all happen?

Open thread!

Michigan: Nobody ever said rebuilding a major state after decades of doom and gloom would be easy.Post + Comments

Reaping the Post-Roe Whirlwind

by Betty Cracker| December 4, 20231:04 pm| 77 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, The War On Women, Women's Rights Are Human Rights

A shoo-in for the title of most prolific liar in American history, Donald Trump has said a couple of things that are true and relevant to the upcoming election. The first true statement was that he made Ron DeSantis (unstated proviso: Trump can unmake him too). The second was that Republicans “are getting killed” on abortion.

Whether by Trump’s tiny orange hand or not, the DeSantis candidacy is looking like a fart in a whirlwind, which is a good thing for the republic, if not for Republicans. But item #2, the abortion rights issue, won’t dissipate like a fart in the shape of a Florida governor. As the Virginia governor’s recent fleecy faceplant makes clear, there are no magic words or outerwear items that will defang the reproductive rights issue. But Republicans are still looking for one weird trick.

Liz Mair, a GOP strategist who worked on the fart-in-a-whirlwind campaigns of Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry, proposed a way Republicans can escape the reproductive rights morass in a guest essay in The New York Times. Here’s a gift link, though I cannot recommend an essay so poorly reasoned, deliberately deceptive and willfully blind to reality.

I call your attention to it because the level of denial in Mair’s piece is almost comical. Her premise is that redefining the meaning of “pro-life” will do the trick, as if decades of red-faced “pro-life” fanatics screaming BABY KILLER and a year-plus of post-Roe “pro-life” legislation that substitutes religious dogma for modern healthcare standards hasn’t etched the correct definition firmly in our minds.

Depending on which pro-lifer you talk to, “pro-life” could mean believing Roe was incorrectly decided and that under a correct interpretation of the Constitution, states were free to enact anti-abortion laws — though many states would not, and that was fine.

Or it could mean believing this but also being determined and committed to working to pass laws in every state banning abortion, possibly with multiple exceptions. Or it could mean believing Roe was wrongly decided and that federal law or the Constitution (or both) should ban abortions, perhaps with exceptions.

Or it could mean being pro-Roe but at the same time anti-abortion, or it could mean strictly opposing abortion in the second and third trimesters, with only cursory concern about Roe.

“Depending on which recovering alcoholic you talk to, ‘recovery’ could mean guzzling a handle of Tito’s every day…” I mean come on! What a steaming load of horseshit! It’s not surprising because forced-birthers lie about everything, all the time, but the massive chutzpah on display here from Mair, who is allegedly one of the “reasonable” Republicans, is something to see.

Understanding that “pro-life” can mean a variety of things should inform the way Republicans approach this issue. Right now, when many voters — again, even Republican voters — hear the term “pro-life,” their brains process it as denoting an extreme position. Maybe they think of states like Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma, which have imposed near-complete abortion bans.

Gosh, maybe “their brains process it” as an extreme position because voters recognize that it is an extreme fucking position. And maybe voters have noticed that when Republicans are in power, they give their extreme position force of law.

Mair dishonestly highlights Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma as rural outliers when in fact 21 U.S. states controlled by Republicans either imposed draconian restrictions or in effect banned abortion after Roe fell, including populous states like Florida and Texas.

In a sign of how desperate Mair is to extricate her party from the trap it made, she turns to shitty misogynist weirdos JD Vance and Donald Fucking Trump as models of how Repubs can move forward:

This trend — in which “pro-life” equals “extreme” — is what Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio pointed to in explaining why voters in the state resoundingly approved a ballot measure enshrining a right to abortion in the state Constitution. As he put it, the pro-life side got clobbered because voters disliked both options, but they particularly disliked the state’s pro-life so-called heartbeat bill, which made abortion illegal beyond about six weeks of pregnancy, and voted to keep some forms of abortion legal.

As Mr. Vance posted on social media, “We have to recognize how much voters mistrust us (meaning elected Republicans) on this issue.”

Well, he’s right that voters mistrust Republicans but he’s wrong about why. By huge margins, Americans reject abortion bans. They mistrust Republicans because Republicans brazenly lie about their intent on abortion all the time.

The “pro-life” movement’s aim is to abolish reproductive rights, as movement figures openly proclaim to supporters, and then they tell bald-faced lies to gain the power to do so, as the Republicans on the Supreme Court did when they called Roe “settled law” as nominees and then overturned it.

Like the robed liars in the highest court in the land, Republicans like Mair, Vance and Trump are only advocating a temporary ceasefire on abortion so they can regroup and think up new lies. Mair comes close to admitting it here:

But the party can triage. Focus first on a broadly winning position, which is banning later abortions. And at least for a few years, drop the legislating, especially where it gets into Ohio-like terrain. That is what the pro-life movement will be left with having to do anyway. If the Trump-Vance scenario comes to pass, the pro-life movement will be left with having to change hearts and minds to affect individual behavior based on (shifted) individual opinion rather than focusing mostly on changing laws.

It’s an absurd proposal. Republicans stopped trying to persuade people decades ago and went all-in on minoritarian rule because their policies are unpopular, including their opposition to abortion rights.

Republicans also made screaming fanatics a leg of the GOP coalition’s three-legged stool 50 years ago, so they’re stuck with them. And lying about what “pro-life” means isn’t going to fly when nearly half the states are run by fanatics who are consigning every woman of childbearing years to substandard healthcare and higher mortality rates.

I think Mair and company are just going to have to reap the whirlwind on this one. No one is buying their bullshit anymore.

Open thread.

Reaping the Post-Roe WhirlwindPost + Comments (77)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Holding On to Hope

by Anne Laurie| December 4, 20237:45 am| 169 Comments

This post is in: Popular Culture, Something Good Open Thread

Meanwhile in Donbas pic.twitter.com/1oo0KIcD1K

— Illia Ponomarenko ???? (@IAPonomarenko) December 4, 2023

‘Longest evening of the year’ (winter solstice) is not quite three weeks away. After that, here in the northern hemisphere, the weather gets worse but at least the days get longer…

I know that’s right, Ms. Dionne. ?? pic.twitter.com/oERxtd0K8d

— Renee (@PettyLupone) December 3, 2023

Whatever small steps we can take, to get us through… From the Washington Post, “Kennedy Center Honors: Off-script moments energize the stately affair” [unpaywalled gift link]:

It was a giddy night in Washington. Well, a giddy weekend.

The Kennedy Center Honors is always a stately affair, and Sunday evening was no different — with President Biden and first lady Jill Biden, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and second gentleman Doug Emhoff in attendance.

But this year a chaotic energy pumped though its veins. Being honored in the arts center’s 2,364-seat Opera House: comedian Billy Crystal, opera soprano Renée Fleming, Bee Gees singer-songwriter Barry Gibb, hip-hop pioneer and actress Queen Latifah, and singer (and legendary tweeter) Dionne Warwick.

Everything that’s usually on the menu was present. Hair-raising musical performances. Touching tributes from past honorees. Biographical videos. Amusing bits. Herbie Hancock.

While it was lovely as always, the air was charged. Spontaneous, off-script, offbeat moments elevated the night. Like when the entire crowd of politicos and arts enthusiasts thrust their hands back and forth and swayed to a hip-hop medley honoring Latifah…

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As always, the evening is composed of five segments, each running about 20 minutes and each dedicated to an honoree, with friends, family and creative partners celebrating them in various ways.

For Warwick, the night’s first honoree, that meant booming covers of her songs. Mickey Guyton and the Spinners joined to perform “Then Came You.” Cynthia Erivo earned a standing ovation with a tremendous version of “Alfie” as projected stars twinkled overhead. Gladys Knight, a 2022 honoree, sang “Say a Little Prayer.”…

Crystal was honored by friends Rob Reiner, Bob Costas, Jay Leno and De Niro. First, though, “Hamilton” creator Lin-Manuel Miranda performed his version of a Billy Crystal Oscars-style medley, singing about the comedian’s career to the tune of “My Favorite Things.”…

Queen Latifah’s family — including her father and sister, her best friends, a couple of her aunts, an uncle and a cousin — appeared in a video. “That ‘Equalizer’ show is just the bomb,” said one aunt.

The rest of Latifah’s segment — introduced by 5-year-old rapper VanVan, featured performances by MC Lyte, Monie Love, Yo-Yo, D-Nice, Rapsody, the Clark Sisters and the very choir her late mother had sung in — had the Kennedy Center audience alternatively swaying in their seats and then giving up chair-dancing altogether as old man rhythm jumped into their shoes…

Music continued to dominate as the evening wore down, especially in the tribute to Fleming.

“Your sonic DNA lives inside of me,” said actor and singer Tituss Burgess, who joined actress Christine Baranski and mezzo-soprano Susan Graham in a rendition of “You’ll Never Walk Alone” from “Carousel,” in which Fleming made her Broadway debut in 2018…

The evening included the usual sweet platitudes about the power and importance of art. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed how the performing arts bind humanity. “We could use more connection, we could use more empathy, we could use more understanding in the world around us,” he said. David Rubenstein, chairman of the Kennedy Center, later added, “Art is not a form propaganda. Art is a from of truth.”…

(Personal request: If you’re gonna dump a downer, please wait until the fifth or sixth comment, ‘kay?)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Holding On to HopePost + Comments (169)

Medicaid vs ACA Cost Sharing Reduction choices

by David Anderson| December 4, 20237:05 am| 5 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

In the short thread celebrating North Carolina starting Medicaid Expansion last Friday, Freemark asked a good question:

What do you think is better, Medicaid or high CSR Silver? Had some time off work and will probably qualify for Medicaid but could move $2000 from an old 401k to a Roth and that would put me just enough to get a high CSR plan. No premium, to me, $1 copay and a $300 deductible.

Like most health policy questions, the honest answer is “It’s messy and it really depends on your values, preferences and situation….”

However, one of my mentors and committee members, Dr. Heidi Allen looked at this question in a 2021 JAMA Network Open article. Her team linked Colorado enrollment into ACA and Medicaid data with the state all payer claims database. They looked at individuals whose income was just above and just below the 138% Federal Poverty Level eligibility line. People with incomes above that line went to CSR plans and people within incomes below that line went to the Medicaid Expansion pool. The study looks at total costs, out of pocket spending and a dozen quality metrics:

Here are there key results:

Marketplace coverage was associated with fewer ED visits (mean, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.32-0.40] visits vs 0.56 [95% CI, 0.50-0.62] visits; P < .001) and more office (outpatient) visits than Medicaid (mean, 2.22 [95% CI, 2.11-2.32] visits vs 1.73 [95% CI, 1.64-1.81] visits; P < .001). No differences in ambulatory care–sensitive hospitalizations were found (0.004 [95% CI, 0.001-0.006] vs 0.007 [95% CI, 0.002-0.011]; P = .15). Total costs were 83% higher in Marketplace coverage (mean, $4553 [95% CI, $3368-$5738] vs $2484 [95% CI, $1760-$3209]; P < .001) owing almost entirely to higher prices, and out-of-pocket costs were 10 times higher (mean, $569 [95% CI, $337-$801] vs $45 [95% CI, $26-$65]; P < .001). Five of 12 secondary quality measures favored private insurance, and 1 favored Medicaid.

ACA plans will steer people out of emergency rooms and to outpatient facilities more aggressively. There is a lot more cost sharing in the ACA ($569 vs $45 for Medicaid). Quality probably is neutral to ACA favoring on most things.

There are two generalizability problems. First, Colorado’s Medicaid program is relevant for Colorado. Medicaid in West Virginia pays doctors and hospitals way worse so ACA plans which pay better are likely to get more of an access bonus than Colorado plans. Conversely, Medicaid pays relatively well in Ohio, so there might be less of an access bump. Secondly, they only look at people who are really close to the switch line. Folks who are pretty far away from the line might have different things going on in their lives.

Finally, the big thing is how much do you value your current provider relationships and access? If you’re routinely seeing doctors and using services, your value on a relationship is likely higher than someone who has seen a doctor twice in the past five years.

Medicaid vs ACA Cost Sharing Reduction choicesPost + Comments (5)

On The Road – Albatrossity – Mid-September in Flyover Country

by WaterGirl| December 4, 20235:00 am| 20 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

We have birds and flowers and a trip to Amsterdam, should be a great week!

Also, we’re coming up on the holidays, so please send in your pics from when you were little so we can do a week or two of those before the holidays.

You can either submit your holiday pics as an OTR post or you can send the pictures to me as email attachments.

(click the image below for a bigger, non-blurry version of the schedule)

Albatrossity

Mid-September in Flyover Country is one of the finest times to be here. Decent temperatures, fall flowers in abundance, and, of course, bird migration all combine to make it a very pleasant interlude between hotter-than-holy-hell summers and icy wind-blasted winters. So here are some pics from September in my part of the galaxy. And some links to the three 2024 bird photo calendars I have created this year. Enjoy!

Konza PrairieSeptember 10, 2023

Liatris (Gayfeather) usually is done blooming by the end of August, but this patch had different ideas. Click here for larger image.

On The Road – Albatrossity – Mid-September in Flyover CountryPost + Comments (20)

Late Night Open Thread: Dean Phillips Is Huffing Serious Fumes

by Anne Laurie| December 4, 20232:47 am| 96 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Open Threads, Proud To Be A Democrat!

Huh. Dean Phillips is still alive. https://t.co/pZImcLTuej

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 3, 2023

Haven’t listened to the whole thing (I’m waiting on a transcript), but Rep. Phillips seems to be spouting every half-arsed, failed ‘win the primary by force of argument!!’ slogan from 2008 / 2012 / 2016 / 2020 — from *both* sides of the aisle, but particularly the not-Democratic one.

Holy crap! This interview with Dean Phillips on Pod Save America is an absolute disaster.@deanbphillips isn’t ready for this run. #DropOutDean
Highlights… pic.twitter.com/3jx8CUcmzR

— Christopher Webb (@cwebbonline) December 3, 2023

‘I want a Common-Sense Czar’… (How’d that go for Paul Ryan, or Mitt Romney, or… ?)

"For two hours, Dean Phillips sat at a Democratic Party dinner here as one top party official after another rose to fete his opponent, Joe Biden, and encourage voters to write in the president’s name on next month’s ballot."

Time to #DropOutDean
https://t.co/SOvTwwrkHF

— Sann Diamond (@smndiad) December 2, 2023

But he’s a Midwestern white dude with a personal fortune! How can you cruelly dismiss a winsome fella with such bright ideas (ask his paid advisers!), just because ‘the voters’ might not yet understand that Mean Dean Green is the *only* choice against Donald Trump?!?…

"I can't imagine that there's anybody here that even cares," that you're running #DropOutDean. https://t.co/jNQ19LmITM pic.twitter.com/vNfNrtmqBi

— LANana – Fani Willis is my Hero ?? (@lanana421) December 2, 2023

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Late Night Open Thread: Dean Phillips Is Huffing Serious FumesPost + Comments (96)

War for Ukraine Day 648: The Clock Ticks in Kyiv While Those in DC & Brussels Dither

by Adam L Silverman| December 3, 20237:55 pm| 64 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

As the winter campaign in Ukraine begins, the strategic failures in DC, Brussels, and the capitols of Europe are becoming a major problem.

NATO General Secretary @jensstoltenberg: we must be ready for bad news, too. This is a war of attrition, battle for effectiveness, battle for logistics. Increasing ammunition production plays a decisive role. The more we support Ukraine, the sooner this war will end.

We must… pic.twitter.com/oGdRZsRw73

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 3, 2023

NATO General Secretary @jensstoltenberg: we must be ready for bad news, too. This is a war of attrition, battle for effectiveness, battle for logistics. Increasing ammunition production plays a decisive role. The more we support Ukraine, the sooner this war will end.

We must understand that the victory of president Putin will become a tragedy for Ukraine but it will be dangerous for us, as well.

This is an estimate based on observation of facts on the ground. But it seems a fair-minded exercise to assume it is accurate and, on that basis, to ask the White House the following questions:
– Why were only ~ 20 missiles transferred?
– What is the current reasoning regarding… https://t.co/XxZfJ6ghCi

— Edward Hunter Christie (@EHunterChristie) December 3, 2023

This is an estimate based on observation of facts on the ground. But it seems a fair-minded exercise to assume it is accurate and, on that basis, to ask the White House the following questions:
– Why were only ~ 20 missiles transferred?
– What is the current reasoning regarding possible further deliveries?
– What about the longer-range, more recent version of the ATACMS? Why has USG not seen fit to transfer those to Ukraine so far?

👍👍👍Ex-head of the CIA Petrius analyzes why there was no breakthrough in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

We have seen our delays in providing military equipment to Ukraine, our tanks have only recently reached them.

➡️Our delay in making decisions about the M1 (Abrams),… pic.twitter.com/GjkI8NCA2f

— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) December 3, 2023

👍👍👍Ex-head of the CIA Petrius analyzes why there was no breakthrough in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

We have seen our delays in providing military equipment to Ukraine, our tanks have only recently reached them.

➡️Our delay in making decisions about the M1 (Abrams),
➡️delays with the approval of Leopard tanks,
➡️we delayed decisions on cluster munitions, which could have been very useful,
➡️missile systems with a longer radius of action for rocket systems of salvo fire,
➡️and finally, Western-style airplanes

Retired General David Petraeus lists these factors as to why this year’s counteroffensive failed.

🟢 “Our military doctrine says that in order to break through the types of defenses that we saw in the south (and I don’t think anyone really realized or appreciated the depth of the minefields, and that Russia did a very good defensive part, several lines of defense, etc. ), our doctrine says that this requires air superiority as well as many other capabilities. And we didn’t give it to the Ukrainians”, – David Petraeus in an interview with “Voice of America”

P.S. He is absolutely right.
Error detected – then make it better from now on.
Begin with #ATACMSforUkraine and #TaurusForUkraine

The White House doesn’t want Ukraine to win. The question is why. Since they won’t say, the answer is something they are ashamed of and/or would suffer for politically. So I believe they are still trying to make deals with Russia and Iran instead of defeating them. https://t.co/q9UNqAGOlY

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) December 3, 2023

From The Financial Times:

EU leaders risk leaving Ukraine empty-handed at a perilous moment in its war against Russia as divisions over finances threaten a €50bn lifeline for Kyiv and Hungary vows to thwart its EU membership talks.

Disputes within the EU over money and Ukraine’s future are endangering crucial pledges to Kyiv made months ago — just when the flow of US financial and military support for Ukraine has abruptly stalled in a politically divided Congress.

EU member states are far from reaching a deal over topping up the bloc’s joint budget — including €50bn for Ukraine — ahead of a summit in Brussels on December 14-15, said officials involved in the discussions.

EU efforts to reach a compromise are being hampered by the victory of a far-right party in last month’s Dutch election and a recent German court ruling curbing the government’s borrowing. A budget agreement would be “very, very difficult”, a senior official said.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s proposed $60bn package is struggling to pass through Congress.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday again vowed to veto the start of Ukraine’s EU membership talks, telling public radio it was “contrary to the interests of several member states” and accession might only be possible “many years from now”.

“We are in a good enough shape to dare say so, no matter the pressure we come under,” he said.

A failure to approve long-term funding, a separate €20bn facility for weapons purchases and the start of accession negotiations would be a hammer blow to Kyiv after the failure of its summer counteroffensive and growing concern about faltering western support. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, last week described the EU summit as an “existential moment” for her country.

“It is crucial that the continued support for Ukraine remains and that we Europeans play our role,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told the Financial Times.

Ukraine has warned that the uncertainty over US and European support packages is putting the country’s “macro-financial stability” at risk. The €50bn proposed by the EU is designed to keep Kyiv solvent to 2027.

“It is a moment of truth,” said an EU official. “If you say you stand by Ukraine, you have to step up to the plate.”

Germany and other states have vowed to give Brussels no additional funds beyond that required for Kyiv, while others are demanding extra cash for domestically sensitive issues such as migration.

Orbán also opposes the funding package. EU officials note that he has relented on Ukraine decisions before and are trying to assess whether he has a price for his support, including the release of some of the €22bn in EU funds blocked by Brussels over rule of law concerns.

EU officials last week indicated that the European Commission was close to unblocking up to €10bn for Budapest, as reforms enacted earlier this year had strengthened judicial independence.

However, Hungarian officials insist there is no link between Ukraine and the funds issue, and EU officials and diplomats say that this time the Hungarian leader seems more implacable.

“There’s a lot of fog that needs to be lifted in the next weeks. And today there’s so much fog that I don’t see very far away what’s coming,” said De Croo.

More at the link!

The Ukrainians are not going to stop fighting, but if they lose this war, if Putin’s genocidal ambitions are achieved, leading to the rest of Europe being threatened, that loss will lay at the feet of the Biden administration and the US Congress, the European Union, and the EU member states. The Ukrainians are not going to give up, but until or unless the senior people in DC, Brussels, and the capitols of the EU member states get their heads in the game, not giving up is not going to be enough.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Everyone should remember that the battle for the fate of Ukraine continues – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

3 December 2023 – 20:18

Fellow Ukrainians!

Today, the Russian occupiers struck at Kherson once again. Brutal strikes. Straight at the city… Houses. Streets. Our hospitals. As of now, two people have been reported dead. My condolences to the families and friends. All the wounded have been provided with the necessary assistance.

Altogether, on this day alone, and only in Kherson region, there were more than 20 Russian shelling occasions – similar to those in Kherson, purely terrorist in nature. In the city of Beryslav and in the villages of the region. I extend my gratitude to all the rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, to all the National Police personnel working to eliminate the consequences of the shelling. I am grateful to all the doctors and nurses who are providing assistance. I am grateful to the local authorities and volunteers who do not abandon their cities and communities to their fate.

Intense battles are ongoing in dozens of areas along the entire frontline. The most severe are the Maryinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut areas. However, it is also difficult in the south and in Kharkiv region.

And every city in Ukraine, where today was a relatively quiet day… Everyone who is now in the rear. Everyone who can afford to spend time at home. Everyone should remember that the battle for the fate of Ukraine continues. It’s not on social media, not in arguments over political matters, not in squabbling. This battle is where Ukrainians need support every day. Specific things that strengthen Ukraine. Things that add strength to our positions, to our state. Things that allow us to respond to the enemy’s attacks with our actions. Active actions. Bold actions.

I thank everyone who does not forget that the frontline requires support every day. I thank everyone who is working for the sake of unwavering, constant, real support. I thank everyone who understands how important it is for our people in the frontline areas and the temporarily occupied territories to feel that Ukraine remembers them. That Ukraine remembers and will not abandon them to the enemy’s destruction. I thank everyone who does not get discouraged and does not waste their precious energy on arguments. Those who work for the national interests. Those who heal and save lives. Those who educate children and genuinely care for their communities’ interests. Those who manufacture weapons and ammunition for our warriors. Those who organize volunteer fundraisers and, against all odds, provide assistance to specific units. I am grateful to everyone who trains our soldiers, both here in Ukraine and in partner countries. Each such training mission is a tangible contribution to the victory that will come. Inevitably. If you do not just believe in it, do not just expect victory from the warriors, but do everything in your power every day so that Ukraine becomes stronger and our collective capabilities increase.

We are already preparing for the next week, and we will definitely expand the capabilities of our state. In particular, our defense industry. We are preparing new military support packages from our partners. Strengthening our air defense, which is a constant priority, is also in progress.

We will definitely retaliate for the occupiers’ terror against our people. We always do.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s more on what the US’s, the EU’s, and NATO’s failure will mean:

An unpopular opinion, if Ukraine is not provided with means to expel russians from our territory, Ukraine will have to do something different, open borders, evacuate as much people as possible, dismiss the AFU and have govt in exhile as already happened to us 100 years ago.
1/3

— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) December 3, 2023

with an army refreshed with Ukrainians and NATO weapons russia will already be in 0 km from Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. What do you think about such a perspective?

PS: I don’t mention Moldova because russian troops are already there.

3/3

— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) December 3, 2023

Zelenskyy will resign at some point- that’s obvious he won’t be here forever. Yes, 10s of millions more refugees to EU.
Budanov won’t do that.
I am tired of all these illusions.
It will be a problem of NATO and EU, not Ukraine anymore. We are done. Figure it out for yourself.

— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) December 3, 2023

Precisely. If the US + Europe together are incapable of holding off an army of convicts and pardoned cannibals, whilst having all the means to do so, then they deserve what's coming. Enjoy Netflix and Disney+ while you can. https://t.co/md9SccYsqP

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 3, 2023

The Ukrainians are willing to spend their blood and treasure, all they’re asking is for us to provide the necessary material and equipment. Material and equipment that is overwhelmingly made in the US or in the EU member states, which creates jobs and economic growth in the US and the EU member states. And we CANNOT even be bothered to do much despite doing so resulting in a major victory that would actually stabilize the global system, benefit our own economy, and cost pennies on the dollars.

For those keeping Advent calendars this season:

3rd Day of Ukrainian Advent Calendar

Today, we want to thank our British partners @DefenceHQ. The UK was the first European country to send weapons to the Ukrainian army to repel russian aggression. And we are also grateful for one of the best modern tanks Challenger 2.

The… pic.twitter.com/GYaD1XTA4z

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 3, 2023

3rd Day of Ukrainian Advent Calendar

Today, we want to thank our British partners @DefenceHQ. The UK was the first European country to send weapons to the Ukrainian army to repel russian aggression. And we are also grateful for one of the best modern tanks Challenger 2.

The Challenger 2 became an effective weapon in professional hands of Ukrainian warriors. The spectacular combination of 🇬🇧 technology and 🇺🇦 talent helps lo liberate our land from occupiers.

More Weapons of Victory to came tomorrow. You can guess an option in comments.

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

More on the blockade of military equipment being transshipped through Poland:

Most likely it's a part of the USA aid, but they will tell you that all humanitarian and military aid is not blocked 🤡 https://t.co/kJIZcmpUDU

— Paul Shapoval (@Frialum) December 2, 2023

Looks ridiculous how panicky they're trying to make the case and find at least a few proofs that Ukrainians harm the market. Like, so far – zero real evidence that it's a massive issue

— Paul Shapoval (@Frialum) December 2, 2023

From EuroIntegration: (machine translation)

Activist of the NGO “Europe without Barriers” Pavlo Kravchuk said that blockers on the Polish border detained the patrol boat SAFE Boats International, which is part of a program of assistance from the US government.

As “European Truth” writes, he reported this on Facebook.

He said blockers representing the anti-Ukrainian party “Confederation” said they had detained and sent a truck with a boat from SAFE Boats at the end of the queue, claiming it was a “yacht road”, designed as humanitarian aid.

Kravchuk said he received a comment from SAFE Boats stating that she had provided 27-foot patrol boats such as the “Cabin with the possibility of bypassing” (Walk Around Cabin) for Ukraine.

“It’s part of a US government assistance program. The vessels provided by SAFE Boats are intended for use as government patrol vessels and are not intended for use as private yachts, – quoted the company’s statement.

The activist noted that he could not claim for sure that under the cover of one of these boats.

“But I consider it very likely that this is the case, and the Confederacy not only causes insane damage to Ukraine’s economy and delays vital supplies indirectly, but also directly blocks military cargo”, – summed up Kravchuk.

Earlier it was reported that Ukrainian drivers of scales waiting for the crossing of the checkpoint “Krakowiec-Korchova” due to the blockade of Polish carriers, decided to suspend the hunger strike after negotiations.

The day before, representatives of the infrastructure authorities of Ukraine and Poland met in Warsaw, discussing measures to lift the blockade of Polish carriers at the border, and already agreed on several points.

It will be recalled that Polish truckers began protest On November 6, demanding that the EU, among other things, restore the licensing system for Ukrainian drivers entering the European Union.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported, that as of Friday morning, there are a total of about 2,100 trucks on the Ukrainian-Polish border in line to enter Ukraine.

Abomination is the least strong word to describe what happens now along Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

Historians of the future will be genuinely shocked to see how petty, delusional, and irresponsible their ancestors were in the darkest hour – and how…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 3, 2023

Abomination is the least strong word to describe what happens now along Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

Historians of the future will be genuinely shocked to see how petty, delusional, and irresponsible their ancestors were in the darkest hour – and how they brought grief upon themselves AGAIN and AGAIN by being stunningly blind.

Bakhmut:

The atmosphere of frontline positions in Donbas (Bakhmut direction)

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) December 3, 2023

Christmas trees know no boundaries. This was set up around Bakhmut

📷 Roman Docent pic.twitter.com/pEJzmLZxur

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 3, 2023

Avdiivka:

In reference to the murder of the two Ukrainian POWs by Russian militants the head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said:

“Our fighters surrendered because they ran out of ammunition, but Russian b*stards shot unarmed soldiers.

Later, the… pic.twitter.com/NtYDDt98MG

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 3, 2023

In reference to the murder of the two Ukrainian POWs by Russian militants the head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said:

“Our fighters surrendered because they ran out of ammunition, but Russian b*stards shot unarmed soldiers.

Later, the positions of the Russians were covered and all were eliminated.”

#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka

Destroyed Russian equipment in Avdiivka, 2 Dec 2023.https://t.co/uOgJxKhBcB pic.twitter.com/BiJBdVC5a7

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 3, 2023

First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

No matter what but the war continues. And RUAF are still trying to capture Avdiivka.

I don’t know what’s going on but sometimes I think that the West is afraid of our Victory.

Well, doesn’t matter. We will continue fighting till the end.

So Avdiivka thread. Part V🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/lQdzHOTt2W

— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) December 3, 2023

List of huge losses from October continues.

This BMP was destroyed 22.10.23

Two more BMPs from 19.10.23

BTR-82A, T-72 tank and what, former BMP or APC?

More

More APCs, tanks from 19.10

BMPs and tanks

Left T-72, BTR-80 and destroyed BMP-2. Still everything from 19.10

This looks like Stalingrad movie from the late 90s

Leftovers of destroyed tanks and IFVs

4 new BTR-82A and one more MTLB

Extra image

All of that was from the north. So a little update from the south, Vodiane village👇

Two new T-72B3M tanks

New T-80BV and some kinda of panorama

BMP-1 and tanks. You don’t see tanks? Well, there were T-80 and T-64 I assume
Maybe @naalsio26 will correct me

@naalsio26 Destroyed MTLB, destroyed BMP, damaged and left T-72B and BTS-2/4.

Vodiane village, south of Avdiivka.

@naalsio26 If you if an opportunity and desire to support our unit fighting in Kherson direction you may support us via BMC:

freedomfighter is We create interesting videos ;DHello. My name is Dima. I’m Ukrainian. I serve in the Ukrainian army and have fought against Russian invaders since April 2022.The main goal of this page is to share my memories and thoughts about the…https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ukranianmarines

@naalsio26 I don’t about human losses but @WT3ll published two photos of destroyed enemy infantry there.

U may count. But the point is that we got used to the fact of huge Russian losses. But the point is that they gave a fuck.

Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Magyar’s Birds are hunting!

Krynky. Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" deleting Russian vehicles at night. 3 December, apparently.https://t.co/hU50samf7m pic.twitter.com/s4lCVNtHzL

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 3, 2023

First two documented losses of China provided Desertcrosses in Oleshki forest, Kherson region. https://t.co/eTzbPt2k89 https://t.co/lRZWsw89pn pic.twitter.com/2G0rR5IRqK

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 3, 2023

Moscow:

A factory for specialized cars in Moscow is on fire. Around 1,000 square meters are already compromised and the fire is spreading.

Source: https://t.co/9TAPDsHLMo #Russia #Moscow pic.twitter.com/a985JbjpTw

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 3, 2023

Mikhail Khodorkovsky has posted a thread where he assesses Putin’s weaknesses. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Internal conflicts and betrayal among Putin's closest allies are finally exposing his weaknesses.

The change in Russia is inevitable: here's what the future might look like 🧵 1/11 pic.twitter.com/oqo14kjces

— Mikhail Khodorkovsky (@khodorkovsky_en) December 2, 2023

Putin’s war against Ukraine is a catalyst for his regime’s eventual fall. It’s a question of when, not if. This war has triggered forces that will lead to the regime’s collapse. The key challenge now is ensuring a democratic transition post-Putin. 2/11

Peaceful protests alone can’t topple Putin’s regime. We face the hard truth: his removal won’t happen through elections or peaceful means. This necessitates a different approach for change. 3/11

Prigozhin’s coup attempt was a turning point. Despite no sympathy for him, this event highlighted the regime’s vulnerabilities. It’s a crack in Putin’s armor that we must acknowledge and exploit. 4/11

The assassination of Prigozhin and his circle signals deep military dissatisfaction and the regime’s fragility. These internal rifts within the power structure are our opportunities for change. 5/11

Future regime splits are also inevitable. ‘National patriots’ like Prigozhin won’t bring democratization. We, as a democratic opposition, must be ready to dismantle autocracy and uphold democratic values. 6/11

Overthrowing Putin is crucial, but the aftermath is vital. I am convinced, dissolution of Russia would lead to unstable, nuclear-armed states. We need a balanced, democratic future, not fragmentation. 7/11

Replacing Putin with another ‘good tsar’ isn’t the answer either. Another strongman would continue corruption and repression. Our aim is a federal, democratic Russia, not centralized autocracy. 8/11

I envision a Russia where power comes from its people and regions, not just Moscow. A federal parliamentary republic could offer inclusive governance, ensuring diverse voices are represented and heard. 9/11

The exodus of Russia’s brightest is a loss but also a reservoir of potential leaders for a democratic future. We must harness this intellectual capital to build a free, progressive Russia. 10/11

This is a shorter adaptation from my piece for @KoerberIP, read in full here: 11/11

Here’s Tendar’s take on Khordokovsky’s assessment:

I have read your thread and while I agree with many points you bring up, I disagree with your outlook of a post-imperial Russia where you see danger of the dissolution of Russia. Let me elaborate:

You say that the dissolution of Russia would lead to unstable, nuclear-armed… https://t.co/tAG8HzZh1i

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 3, 2023

I have read your thread and while I agree with many points you bring up, I disagree with your outlook of a post-imperial Russia where you see danger of the dissolution of Russia. Let me elaborate:

You say that the dissolution of Russia would lead to unstable, nuclear-armed states. From my perspective I currently see only an unstable and nuclear-armed Russia, which is frantically fighting to win another year to be an empire. That implies to neighbor-countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and even Belarus as well as the republics which are currently inside the so-called Russian Federation. Denying them self-determination is the continuation of the flawed and eventually untenable state of imperial grandism which brought us this very problem in the first place.

Putin is only the symptom of the decease. The problem is that this and all previous Russian states were by design empires and the peoples/minorities primarily cannon fodder for the expansionist aims of Moscow. We see it right now in Ukraine, where disproportionately minorities are sent to die for a lost cause while their lands are getting scarred by mining as well as oil and gas exploitation, without much wealth being left in the regions and instead being transferred to bank accounts all around the world. I can hardly believe that they will return to the status quo, especially knowing how little the word of Moscow can be trusted.

The dissolution or continuation of the Russian state will depend entirely on the peoples’ will. Each region and republic must have a referendum whether to stay or leave the Russian state. Everything else will bring us back to square one, with the results we have been witness over and over again. One might ask how Russia would survive without all its colonies which are currently stripped. The answer lies in the people which decide to stay inside Russia. It will be daunting task which will last generations, but unlike what Moscow is doing right now it might have a chance of success, if it is done in good faith.

Imperial Russia is dead. There is no going back. The earlier this is accepted, with all the consequences, the earlier you can rebuild a new world.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There’s no new Patron tweets, so we start with this adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

Stay warm.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/OJnGETa6I9

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 3, 2023

And we finish with a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Та й таке! #песпатрон

♬ original sound – conorferguson69

Google translates the caption as:

And so! #песпатрон

While DeepL translates the caption as:

And that’s just it! #песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 648: The Clock Ticks in Kyiv While Those in DC & Brussels DitherPost + Comments (64)

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. don’t touch it.”

“Cheese and Kraken paired together for the appetizer trial.”

This country desperately needs a functioning Fourth Estate.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

“In the name of Zandar, I will fight the Stupid!”

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

Come on, man.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

It’s time for the GOP to dust off that post-2012 autopsy, completely ignore it, and light the party on fire again.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Michigan: Nobody ever said rebuilding a major state after decades of doom and gloom would be easy.

Reaping the Post-Roe Whirlwind

Monday Morning Open Thread: Holding On to Hope

Medicaid vs ACA Cost Sharing Reduction choices

On The Road – Albatrossity – Mid-September in Flyover Country

Albatrossity

Late Night Open Thread: Dean Phillips Is Huffing Serious Fumes

War for Ukraine Day 648: The Clock Ticks in Kyiv While Those in DC & Brussels Dither

Everyone should remember that the battle for the fate of Ukraine continues – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy