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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Books are my comfort food!

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Second rate reporter says what?

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

Dumb motherfuckers cannot understand a consequence that most 4 year olds have fully sorted out.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Fear and negativity are contagious, but so is courage!

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

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Open Thread: We Rate Dogs Bringing the Truth Bombs Again

by TaMara|  February 10, 20263:54 pm| Leave a Comment

This post is in: Dog Blogging, Open Threads, Pet Blogging

I loved this explanation because you can send it to your grandma or grandpa and they will totally understand.  Your crazy uncle might be a loss cause.

 

These guys are not afraid to tell the truth, regardless of consequences. I haven’t seen any slowing down on their favorite causes – raising funds for injured and rescue dogs. They seem to be raising funds like crazy every time they need to.

I have a bunch of backlog good news and climate change info, I just need to find the time to write it up for the blog.  We could all use an emotional recharge, so I will make it a priority this weekend.

Here’s the requisite pups photo:

Two great danes on a couch, one resting her head on the other

I have no idea what’s going on, except poor Scout always so put upon. And I’m sure I’m being judged and found wanting. What’s new, LOL

Totally open thread…

Open Thread: We Rate Dogs Bringing the Truth Bombs AgainPost + Comments

Falling Down (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  February 10, 20261:56 pm| 73 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Official government jobs data is set to be released tomorrow, not just for January (which private data indicates is the worst since 2009) but also revisions for last year. The White House’s nonsensical and braggadocious “don’t be a panican” press release from yesterday was perhaps a sign they are trying to get out in front of yet another bad news cycle by pre-admonishing Americans not to freak out.

Another sign: the admin sent serial fraud Peter Navarro out to tell preposterous lies about the strong job market during Biden’s presidency. Navarro’s gigantic whoppers function as verbal bubble-wrap, protecting Trump’s massive and fragile ego so it won’t fracture when the numbers reveal Trump era shrinkage.

Peter Navarro: “The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like … Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we’re deporting millions of illegals out of the job market.”

[image or embed]

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) February 10, 2026 at 9:19 AM

Navarro says “all of the jobs we were creating in the Biden years were going to illegals.” That’s patently nonsense. But suppose for a moment there’s an alternative timeline where that’s true — wouldn’t the “millions” of deportations Navarro refers to increase rather than decrease job openings?

Fox’s Bartiromo, a thoroughly ridiculous person, nods credulously and chirps “good point” when Navarro peddles absurd crap that would insult the intelligence of a middle school economics class. Navarro cautions Wall Street not to “rain on that parade,” but the raindrops look suspiciously yellow, and the rain clouds appear to be located in Navarro’s trousers.

Will Wall Street believe Trump admin bullshit or their lying eyes? I don’t know, but their track record of rewarding conmen who spin utterly ludicrous tales that never quite pan out isn’t great. Still, it does sort of feel like the entire house of cards is teetering on collapse, no?

***

Speaking of disgusting perverts, if U.S. voters toss the pedo-fascist party out of power and Congressional Democrats assemble a group to examine the Epstein files and expose elite kid-diddlers, I hope someone like Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) leads it.

Vermont US Representative Becca Balint being interviewed by Drop Site News shortly after reviewing more, unreleased Epstein files saying
“They’re all a bunch of sick fucks”

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— Raider (@iwillnotbesilenced.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 10:02 PM

That’s exactly the energy we need because these are a bunch of sick fucks. Those who can be prosecuted should be perp-walked (investigate now-identified trafficking co-conspirator Les Wexner, for example), and those who were in a position to know what was happening and did nothing to stop it should be drummed out of high-profile jobs and shunned.

This includes the president, by the way. Fresh reporting from the Miami Herald‘s Julie K. Brown:

President Donald Trump has repeatedly maintained that he had no knowledge of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex crimes. But in July 2006, just as Jeffrey Epstein’s criminal sex charge became public, Trump called then-Palm Beach police chief Michael Reiter to tell him that Epstein’s activities with teenaged girls were well known in both New York and Palm Beach.

“Thank goodness you’re stopping him, everyone has known he’s been doing this,” Trump told Reiter, according to a 2019 FBI interview with Reiter contained in the Justice Department’s Epstein case files.

Big “guy in hotdog suit” energy there, right? It contradicts what Trump told reporters in 2019 when Epstein was rearrested. Then, he claimed he had no idea his once-close personal friend was molesting girls.

Trump’s commerce secretary Howard Lutnick also lied about his relationship with Epstein. In an October podcast, Lutnick congratulated himself for immediately intuiting that Epstein was a creep after they met as new neighbors in 2005:

Lutnick described his first meeting with Epstein during an interview on the “Pod Force One with Miranda Devine” in October 2025. Lutnick explained that he and his wife toured Epstein’s New York City home soon after they moved into their house. One room had a massage table in the middle with candles around, said Lutnick, who added that he asked Epstein why it was there. That’s when, he suggested, Epstein used sexual innuendo.

Lutnick said he and his wife quickly excused themselves and left Epstein’s home. “And in the six to eight steps it takes to get from his house to my house, my wife and I decided that I will never be in the room with that disgusting person ever again.”

“I was never in the room with him socially, for business, or even philanthropy,” he added. “If that guy was there, I wasn’t going ‘cause he’s gross. So I look back at it as a gift. He gave me a gift.”

Turns out all that was bullshit, as Lutnick admitted today in Congress:

WASHINGTON—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he visited Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012 with his wife and children, years after Lutnick said he had cut off ties with the convicted sex offender.

“My wife was with me, as were my four children and nannies. I had another couple. They were there as well with their children, and we had lunch on the island,” Lutnick said during a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing on Tuesday. Lutnick said he and his family spent roughly an hour on the island and then left. “We were on family vacation,” he added.

I’m glad he included the detail about the four children and nannies, plural. Wholesome family fun on a pervert’s private island. The lying shithead should be fired, but since his boss is also a liar and an Epstein associate, here’s the official White House response:

“President Trump has assembled the best and most transformative cabinet in modern history,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “The entire Trump administration, including Secretary Lutnick and the Department of Commerce, remains focused on delivering for the American people.”

Desai isn’t wrong about the cabinet being “transformative;” it has transformed the government into a grift and sadism machine for perverts and psychopaths. It does seem like more people are finally waking up to the malevolent and mendacious nature of this regime. About goddamn time.

***

Finally, in the morning thread, we talked about Project Salt Box, a grassroots effort to oppose DHS as it stands up a vast network of immigrant detention sites. Rachel Maddow interviewed one of the founders yesterday. Here’s a link to a SubStack that explains how ordinary people can use Salt Box data to pressure officials and businesses to stop cooperating with DHS.

Project Salt Box maintains a warehouse tracker where users can find the nearest sites that have been targeted by the rogue agency. It lists sites that have been purchased, places where purchases were thwarted and sites currently under consideration. Local opposition has already resulted in five cancelations, some in deep-red areas.

The Trump administration is unpopular, and that’s only going to get worse as the wages of their incompetence, malice and greed become even more undeniable to even the most obtuse among us. Authoritarians under fire tend to get more extreme, not less, so we’re in for a rough ride. But we can beat these motherfuckers. We have to.

Open thread.

Falling Down (Open Thread)Post + Comments (73)

Multiple Things Can Be True at Once

by WaterGirl|  February 10, 202611:45 am| 168 Comments

This post is in: Elections, Open Threads

An exchange in the morning thread sent me off to google for more information on voting in 2024, and I found some interesting 2024 stats from Pew Research.

Overarching view

For the most part, voting patterns across demographic groups in the 2024 presidential election were not substantially different from the 2020 and 2016 elections.

But Donald Trump’s gains among several key groups of voters proved decisive in his 2024 victory.

Hispanic voters

Hispanic voters were divided in 2024, a major shift from 2020 and 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden won Hispanic voters by 25 percentage points, and Hispanic voters supported Hillary Clinton by an even wider margin in 2016. But Trump drew nearly even with Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters, losing among them by only 3 points.  Black voters also moved to Trump but remained overwhelmingly Democratic.

Black voters

Trump nearly doubled his support among Black voters between 2020 and 2024: 8% voted for him in 2020 vs. 15% last year. Still, 83% of Black voters backed Harris.

Men – especially men under 50 – backed Trump by larger margins. Men supported Trump by a wider margin than in 2020. Trump narrowly won men under age 50, a shift from 2020 when men in that age group favored Biden by 10 points.

Democrat vs. Republican

As in prior elections, a change in voters’ partisan allegiances – switching from the Democratic to the Republican candidate or vice versa – proved to be a less important factor in Trump’s victory than differential partisan turnout.

In the overall electorate and among key demographic groups, Republican-leaning eligible voters simply were more likely to turn out than Democratic-leaning eligible voters in 2024.

Education

And despite some notable changes in the coalitions, many familiar divisions in demographic voting patterns were once again evident. For example, voters with at least four-year college degrees and urban residents voted for Harris by wide margins. By contrast, Trump retained sizable advantages among noncollege voters and voters living in rural areas.

Gender

Men favored Trump by 12 percentage points in the 2024 election, while women favored Harris by 7 points. Trump made gains among men compared with 2020 and held roughly steady among women:

55% of men voted for Trump in 2024, up from 50% of men in 2020.
46% of women voted for Trump in 2024, compared with 44% of women four years earlier.

Race

A 55% majority of White voters cast ballots for Trump in 2024. An identical share of White voters favored Trump in 2020, and 54% selected him in 2016.

White men favored Trump by a margin of 20 points in the most recent election. White women favored Trump by a narrower 4-point margin.

Though most Black voters continued to prefer the Democratic candidate, a larger share of Black voters cast ballots for Trump in 2024 than in 2020 or 2016.

Roughly eight-in-ten Black voters (83%) reported voting for Harris in 2024, while 15% favored Trump. In 2020, 8% of Black voters reported voting for Trump, and just 6% of Black voters favored him in 2016.

Black men and women alike were more likely to vote for Trump in 2024 than in 2020. One-in-ten Black women and 21% of Black men voted for Trump in the most recent election.

Increased shares of Black voters who favored Trump were driven not by individuals shifting their preferences, but by changes in who turned out to vote. While some Black voters did indeed switch from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, these defections were largely canceled out by Black voters who switched in the opposite direction.

A lot of this won’t be surprising to those of you who pour over polls and statistics. I generally do not.

Definitely a reminder to me that multiple things can be true at the same time, which is not a bad thing.

Definitely a few surprises in there for me, like this one:

White men favored Trump by a margin of 20 points in the most recent election.

White women favored Trump by a narrower 4-point margin.

Not surprising, I guess, given that Roe was thrown overboard, but I had not taken note of how stark the gender gap was.

Anything stand out for any of you?

 

Multiple Things Can Be True at OncePost + Comments (168)

Robert Reich Call to Action

by WaterGirl|  February 10, 202610:20 am| 28 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Please contact your Congressional Reps AGAIN (or for the first time) and demand that they rein in ICE – the timing is perfect –  DHS funding runs out on Friday!

This is a chance to do something constructive.

ICE, ICE, ICE

There was so much in this call to action post (below) from Robert Reich that it’s impossible to summarize.  But it’s important, so I hope you’ll read the whole thing.

Many of you tell me you feel powerless in the face of Trump’s reign of terror. You view and read horrific news reports about what ICE and Border Patrol are doing, but you don’t know how you can reduce or stop this horror.

Let me assure you: You’re not powerless. In fact, you have enormous power.

Start with ICE and Border Patrol detention facilities, now holding some 70,000 people in 224 facilities across the country that reportedly are rife with abuses. Last year, deaths in ICE custody reached a 20-year high. The first days of 2026 brought more deaths. Medical neglect, isolation, and overcrowding are routine.

CoreCivic (formerly Corrections Corporation of America) is the largest owner and operator of ICE and Border Patrol detention centers. It has a record of abusing detainees. Among the detention centers CoreCivic lists on its website is the Stewart Detention Center in Lumpkin, Georgia. In December, The Interceptreported that there were at least 15 medical emergency calls to 911 from the Stewart facility every month since the start of the second Trump administration.

If you’re as outraged about this as I am, here are five things you can do now.

1. You and I are paying CoreCivic through our tax dollars. You can demand that our senators and representatives in Congress not fund the Department of Homeland Security until these abuses stop.

At this moment, congressional Democrats are trying to condition their votes for the Department of Homeland Security’s spending bill on placing guardrails around ICE and Border Patrol.

You might contact your senators and representatives and urge them not to vote for funding of the Department of Homeland Security. Or at the least, demand that in order to receive funding, their agents cannot wear masks, must wear identification, cannot use racial profiling, must have search warrants, cannot use lethal force, and must give arrestees due process, and that those detained must receive adequate medical care and accommodation.

You can reach your senators and representatives through the U.S. Capitol switchboard at (202) 224-3121.

2. You may own CoreCivic indirectly. You can withdraw your savings from institutional investors that are financing it.

CoreCivic is a public-held corporation, meaning that it’s listed on the stock exchange. We may not own its shares directly, but many of us entrust our savings to institutional investors such as Black Rock and Vanguard, which own significant shares in CoreCivic.

Black Rock accounts for 16 percent of CoreCivic’s total shares. Vanguard Group Inc. holds 12 percent. They are CoreCivic’s largest shareholders. As such, they have the most influence (other than the federal government’s Department of Homeland Security, if DHS were acting responsibly) over how CoreCivic runs its detention facilities.

Find out if your savings are held by one or both of these two giant institutional investors. (Check with your broker or look at the reports they send you.) If they are, you might instruct your broker to withdraw your savings from them and put them in another institution that doesn’t hold shares of CoreCivic.

3. You may support the Democratic Party, specifically the Democratic Governors Association — which has been accepting donations from CoreCivic. You can contact the DGA and tell it to stop accepting such donations.

A Politico review of campaign finance records published Saturday shows that the Democratic Governors Association has taken in hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations from CoreCivic. These are not charitable contributions by CoreCivic, but attempts by CoreCivic to influence state legislation.

From 2017 through at least 2025, the DGA took in $1,246,050 over 46 donations from CoreCivic. The most recent publicly reported donation to the DGA came in May 2025, according to records, around the same time White House officialsbegan pressuring ICE to ramp up arrests.

The Republican Governors Association has undoubtedly taken in as much if not more donations from CoreCivic, but I’m assuming that more of us are affiliated with, or at least more influential in, the Democratic Party than the Republican.

You can contact the Democratic Governors Association and tell them to stop taking donations from CoreCivic. You can reach them by writing to the Democratic Governors Association, 1300 Eye Street NW, Suite 1200 West, Washington, D.C. 20005. Or telephone them at (202) 772-5600.

4. You can also express your outrage directly to CoreCivic — and tell them you refuse to support them with your tax dollars or your investment savings. Write them directly at CoreCivic, 5501 Virginia Way, Suite 110, Brentwood, TN 37027. And phone them toll-free at 1-800-624-2931.

5. In addition to your power as a taxpayer, investor-saver, and voter, you’re also powerful as a consumer. Although you don’t purchase CoreCivic’s detention services directly, you buy from corporations that every day enable CoreCivic, ICE, and Border Patrol to do their nefarious work.

For example, ICE’s latest recruitment ads — built around music and language drawn straight from far-right neo-Nazi memes and aimed at extremists who are most fervent about guns, tactical gear, and vigilantism — are being distributed by and are profiting two companies you probably use all the time: YouTube and Google.

Meanwhile, AT&T, Home Depot, Amazon, and Microsoft are providing ICE and Border Patrol with cloud computing, surveillance software, and logistical support that’s central to how they function. This corporate collaboration makes large-scale enforcement possible.

And Verizon — through a 10-year, $176 million contract with the Department of Homeland Security, including ICE — supplies the communications infrastructure that facilitates raids, detention centers, and deportations.

Without these corporate partners, ICE could not carry out violent raids, operate sprawling detention centers, or deport people at scale. These corporations are enabling violence on the streets and death behind barbed wire.

Yet these corporations also spend billions of dollars each year on their brand images and public relations in order to attract your consumer dollars. None wants to be seen as underwriting civilian killings like those of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. None wants its brand associated with record numbers of deaths in custody. None wants to be linked to detention sites with names like “Alligator Alcatraz” that are rife with abuse.

Your consumer dollars are critical to these corporations. So, at the least, you can demand that they stop profiting from their collaborations with ICE. (Click on the word “demand” in the previous sentence to send them a message.)

And tell Verizon to end its contracts with ICE and stop profiting from violence, detention, and abuse.

You can go a step further and boycott the giant corporations now helping ICE. See here.

In these and many other ways, you are powerful. As a consumer, saver-investor, taxpayer, and voter, you keep these corporations going.

Together, we’re even more powerful. We need not tolerate their complicity in the inhumane acts now being done by ICE, Border Patrol, and Trump’s Department of Homeland Security.

You are not powerless. You can take action now. Please do.

 

Robert Reich Call to ActionPost + Comments (28)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  February 10, 20266:16 am| 221 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality

"No I'm fine, you just make sure you get your fucking video first"

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— Paul Bronks (@slendersherbet.bsky.social) February 5, 2026 at 8:09 AM

Democrats will stop Trump from trying to nationalize midterms, Jeffries says

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— The Guardian (@theguardian.com) February 8, 2026 at 12:45 PM

Democrats will stop Donald Trump from trying to steal this year’s midterm elections, Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the US House of Representatives said on Sunday.

Jeffries’ comments come amid widespread concern after Trump said Republicans should “take over the voting”. The US constitution gives states the power to set election rules and says Congress can pass laws to set requirements for federal elections. The constitution gives the president no authority over how elections are run.

“What Donald Trump wants to do is try and nationalize the election – translation: steal it. And we’re not going to let it happen,” Jeffries said during an appearance on CNN’s State of the Union. He added that Democrats so far had successfully blocked Trump’s efforts to federalize the national guard and countered a nationwide push by Republicans to redraw congressional district boundaries to their advantage.

“This is going to be a free and fair election,” Jeffries said. It “is going to be conducted like every other election where states and localities have the ability to administer the laws”…

Senator Adam Schiff of California also said it was clear Trump was trying to interfere in the election and also questioned why Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, was at the Fulton county raid.

“He fully intends to try to subvert the elections. He will do everything he can to suppress the vote. And if he loses the vote, and I think the Republicans now expect they’ll get a real drubbing in the midterms, he’s prepared to try to take some kind of action to overturn the result. And we really shouldn’t question that,” Schiff said during an appearance on ABC’s This Week. “I think all of this is intended to send a message. And the message is: ‘We will not tolerate or accept an election that we lose.’”

Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the vice-chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, also condemned Gabbard’s presence at the Fulton county raid saying on Sunday he was concerned Trump was trying to interfere in the midterms.

“We have not been informed of any foreign nexus. The job of the director of national intelligence is to be outward facing about foreigners, not about Americans,” he said during an interview on Face The Nation on CBS. “My fear is now [Trump] sees the political winds turning against him, and he’s going to try to interfere in the 2026 election, something a year ago I didn’t think would be possible.”

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one thing that has always confused me about these hypos where the House refuses to recognize Dem winners—the House isn't a continuing body, and it wouldn't be the current House that would be seating anyone. it's the incoming House. www.vox.com/politics/478…

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— Quinta Jurecic (@qjurecic.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 7:44 PM

frankly i never really understood the theory here either! eastman essentially writes in one of his memos that bc the gop will leverage an argument made by larry tribe, dems will have to throw up their hands & say "fair cop guv'nor" when pence declares trump the victor. it's treating dems as NPCs

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— Quinta Jurecic (@qjurecic.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 8:20 PM

they also do not deal with the fact that certification is handled by state boards of election

— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) February 9, 2026 at 8:39 PM

every time someone tries to explain to me how it could actually happen, the plots become more baroque, and complicated and dependent on capacity that simply has not been demonstrated

— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) February 9, 2026 at 8:44 PM

And depends on ignoring demonstrated limitations.
The shutdown made markets decline and the White House got increasingly panicky, demanding Congress pass a budget. But they’re going to indefinitely endure the market damage of no Congress or dueling Congresses? Why would one assume that?

— Nicholas Grossman (@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 8:48 PM

these are people who literally put out a press release that said “don’t panic!”

— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) February 9, 2026 at 8:50 PM

The current clerk is a pro and would never do that. I suppose they could replace him, but as Quinta says, then we’re not talking about the election anymore. And they’d need not just the clerk but every last R in the incoming class to be in on it. It‘s just silly. So many other things to fight.

— penguins18.bsky.social (@penguins18.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 8:49 PM

It's also not likely to be close, as in the first paragraph.
And I don't see the military seizing ballots as in the second. I don't know how you'd even order them to do that.
As to the response "but they'll try!" well they are trying, but in less outlandish ways. Concentrate on those.

— Steve G (@stevewithag.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 7:46 PM

Ossoff: We were told that MAGA was for working-class Americans. But this is a government of, by, and for the ultra-rich. It’s the wealthiest Cabinet ever. This is the Epstein class. They are the elites they pretend to hate.

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— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) February 7, 2026 at 2:57 PM

Tuesday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (221)

Late Night Open Thread: Crazification Factor Unlocked!

by Anne Laurie|  February 10, 20262:52 am| 36 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!

Only 27 percent of respondents say they support all or most of Trump’s policies, down from 35 percent when he took the oath of office. Nearly all of that decline is attributable to *Republicans.*

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— The Bulwark (@thebulwark.com) February 6, 2026 at 11:00 PM

It’s no suprise that the Bulwark people would very much prefer that ‘normal, decent Republicans’ be separated from ‘those mouth-breathing weirdos who followed in Trump’s wake’, but it’s still amusing:

AS WE SURVEY THE WRECKAGE of Trump’s second term, it is often said that half the country voted for this, or worse, half the country is fine with this. Though it is undeniable that something is deeply awry with a nation that can give a popular vote majority to a moral degenerate who did not hide his authoritarian plans, we shouldn’t act as though public opinion hasn’t shifted since the 2024 election. The question for now is: Is MAGA a majority?…

The first step is recognizing how big the problem really is. MAGA is a bit of a moving target, but a recent Economist/YouGov poll found that only 27 percent of all voters described themselves as “MAGA supporters” and a perhaps surprisingly low 54 percent of Trump voters so identified. In other words, a minority of the voting public and only a little over half of the GOP is Trump’s loyal base.

A new survey from More in Common, an international pro-democracy organization (I sit on its global board), offers a more granular look at Trump 2024 voters and provides further evidence that MAGA is definitely not half the country. Between April 2025 and January 2026, they canvassed more than 18,000 Americans, including nearly 11,000 who voted for Trump. In looking over their findings, the group categorized the Trump voters into four clusters: MAGA Hardliners, Anti-woke Conservatives, Mainline Republicans, and the Reluctant Right. Their conclusion? Trump voters were a coalition, not a cult.

The MAGA Hardliners

These are the people we usually picture sporting red hats. They are highly religious (or at least they think of themselves as God-fearing), are 91 percent white, mostly Gen X (32 percent) or Baby Boomers (42 percent), and less educated than other Trump voters—only 24 percent hold a college degree or higher compared with 29 percent of total Trump voters. They have little trust in institutions, believe that a sinister cabal runs media, business, and politics, and are not averse to their leader ignoring the Supreme Court or other constitutional checks in order to “get things done.”

A lamentable majority (62 percent) of the Hardliners say Trump should “punish his opponents for the damage they’ve done” and 60 percent support their man attempting to serve a third term. (In case you’re wondering, yes, they do know the Constitution imposes a two term limit, because it was included in the question.) Nearly three quarters think we should “use our military to round up everyone who came to the US illegally, put them in mass detention camps, and deport them.” Seventy-four percent say voting for Trump is part of “living out my faith,” and 94 percent (75 percent strongly) believe that God intervened to save Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania so that he could make America great again.

This crowd cannot be trusted with power. They are conspiratorial, cultish, dismissive of constitutional limits, and punitive toward their perceived political enemies. There isn’t much good to say about them except this: They represent only 29 percent of Trump 2024 voters….

Late Night Open Thread: Crazification Factor Unlocked!Post + Comments (36)

War for Ukraine Day 1,446: The Plot Thins

by Adam L Silverman|  February 9, 202611:46 pm| 14 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

The cost:

This is Mykhailo Spitsyn. He was ten. His mother, Svitlana, was killed beside him when a russian drone hit their house in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 10:05 AM

I’m running out of new words, because russia isn’t running out of violence. The only thing that changes is how easily the world absorbs it — another mother, another child, folded into the background noise of a long war.

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 10:05 AM

Vladyslav Heraskevych, who wore a helmet with photos of Ukrainian athletes killed by Russia’s war, says the IOC has banned him from using it during official training sessions and competitions.

Please listen to his words!

“The world must know the price of freedom.”

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 5:06 PM

Given recent Russian statements, it seems reasonable to conclude that Trump agreed to give Putin Donetsk Oblast if not all of the Donbas at least:

Lavrov blames the US for the lack of a peace deal on Ukraine.

So let me guess: in Anchorage, Trump must have promised Moscow the quiet handover of the entire Donetsk region without fighting.

They just forgot to ask Ukraine what we think about surrendering territory we actually control.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 10:59 AM

There’s a growing sense that even the participants of the so-called “understanding reached in Anchorage” aren’t entirely sure what, exactly, it is they’re talking about.

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 10:59 AM

We are outraged that US has backed out of deal to give Russia land we can’t conquer and isn’t America’s to give away.

A blow against anti imperialism.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 6:51 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the Trump administration of refusing to implement alleged Russia–U.S. agreements on Ukraine and pursuing a policy of “economic domination,” in comments to Russian-registered TV BRICS published on Feb. 9.

The remarks mark a sharper turn in Moscow’s rhetoric toward Washington, with Lavrov claiming the U.S. has backtracked on what he described as “Anchorage agreements” allegedly reached in 2025 that envisioned Ukraine surrendering the entire Donbas region to Russia without fighting.

“They tell us that the Ukrainian issue needs to be resolved. In Anchorage, we accepted the proposal of the U.S.,” Lavrov said. “They made an offer, we agreed, and the problem should have been resolved. It seems that they proposed it and we were ready — and now they are not.”

The White House has not confirmed the existence of any such agreements, and earlier declined to acknowledge them in comments to the Kyiv Independent.

Lavrov said that despite declarations about moving toward “full-scale, broad cooperation,” Washington continues to pursue what he described as an anti-Russian policy. He pointed to new sanctions and Western actions against Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers as evidence.

“In practice, everything looks the opposite: new sanctions are being introduced, and a war against (shadow fleet) tankers is being waged on the high seas,” the minister said.

Russia has long demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from Donbas and has increasingly tied any future peace deal to such a move after more than a decade of fighting in the region.

Ukraine has ruled out a withdrawal, though Ukrainian officials have said alternative arrangements, including a demilitarized zone, could be considered.

While we have to wait for further reporting to clarify what was and was not offered and/or accepted, this seems extremely plausible given what we know about Trump and his lack of acumen as a negotiator, as well as his self selected submissiveness to Putin.

OTD in 1990 James Baker said they would “think about NATO expansion”. *Not* that they promised none would happen. It’s why later that year in Malta President Bush that the US would not accept limits on anyone’s sovereignty.

But facts are imperialist.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 10:52 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

There Will Be Significant International Events This Week – on Defense and Security. In Europe, Our Position Will Be Sufficiently Represented, and the Same Applies to the United States – Address by the President

9 February 2026 – 20:47

I wish you health!

Briefly about today. Energy is the top priority – this is fully understood across the state. Significant resources are engaged in all regions, and we are further increasing them: expanding the number of crews and strengthening support programs for people and for entrepreneurs.

Today, we spoke with Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko. The Government will make the procurement of new equipment more accessible for apartment buildings, so that homeowners associations can purchase more generators and other equipment that is so crucial amid electricity shortages. The government officials will also expand the support program for owners of private homes to ensure autonomous power supply. These are, in effect, two new programs, and in the near future government officials are to present all details of the programs to the public. As for the programs already in place, reports were also presented today. Applications from sole proprietors are coming in actively for payments that help maintain and repair generators – nearly 20,000 such applications have already been submitted. The zero-percent loan program for purchasing generators has already reached half a billion hryvnias and will continue to grow – sufficient funds are available within the program. Today, I also instructed that the Warmth Packages program be additionally scaled up – so that 40,000 packages are delivered this week. The program will continue operating. I thank Naftogaz for its support of this program.

I would also like to commend Ukrzaliznytsia – all of its specialists. The conditions are extraordinarily difficult. Russian strikes are hitting our logistics virtually every day – targeting facilities that support rail operations and the rolling stock itself. Many routes are dangerous, but our railway continues to operate.

I thank the first responders of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine for their real effectiveness. Every day, they work at energy facilities, extinguish fires, and help people and communities get through this difficult time. The results achieved by everyone currently involved in dealing with the aftermath of the strikes and in recovery efforts benefit all of Ukraine and contribute to the strength of our state and to Ukrainians’ ability to endure this winter and the war as a whole.

There was a discussion with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, with our diplomats, and with members of the negotiating team. Everyone in our country needs to be more active so that now, in February, there is not a single day wasted in strengthening Ukraine and advancing our ability to end the war in a dignified and reliable way. An important result has now been achieved on Starlink – I would like to thank the Minister of Defense; this is one of the significant changes. We also need to finalize all issues related to supplying the army, including predictable and sufficient supplies of drones and other equipment to the troops.

There will be significant international events this week – on defense and security. In Europe, our position will be sufficiently represented, and the same applies to the United States. In practice, our negotiating team is working every single day on the documents and proposals that could deliver results at the upcoming meetings. Most importantly, our partners must be aligned the same way we are in Ukraine: peace is needed, and reliable security guarantees are the only real foundation for peace and for preventing the Russians from breaking agreements through strikes or hybrid operation of some kind.

There are no countries left in Europe that do not know what Russian interference is and what Russian destabilization operations can look like. Everyone also sees what Russian murderers, Russian missiles, and Russian drones are doing. Protection from this and ensuring security must be tangible and lay the groundwork for a lasting peace. The documents on guarantees are ready. There is no alternative to security. There is no alternative to peace. There is no alternative to rebuilding our country. I thank everyone around the world who is helping! Thank you for every single action in support of life and people right now.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Some Georgian protesters actually took to Yerevan amid JD Vance’s Armenia visit to pass on Georgia’s democratic resistance message.

“Russia’s Georgia is a threat for TRIPP.”

“Stand with 🇬🇪 and adopt the MEGOBARI Act!”

📷 ProtestSHE

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 10:36 AM

JD Vance is visiting Armenia and Azerbaijan, but skipping Georgia, once a key US ally. After GD attacked the US ambassador, passed repressive laws, crushed protests, and pivoted toward Russia, ties collapsed. The US froze the partnership (Nov 30, 2024) and sanctioned Bidzina Ivanishvili (Dec 27).

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 1:36 PM

“Foreign funding” is also remittances, which only gets a verbal / interpretation-based exemption from the regime “as long as the funds are not used for political purposes.”

1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 8:15 AM

So, if your emigrant mother working hard taking care of the elderly in Italy sends you some grocery money and you post something anti-regime, you could both go to jail, yes.

Hopefully, other countries won’t extradite people over this. Sounds an insane precaution, but this is the case.

2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 8:15 AM

www.hrw.org/news/2026/02…

3/3.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 8:15 AM

1/ Nika Melia, co-chair of the Ahali party, has been charged in a fourth criminal case within the past year.

#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:11 AM

2/ The new charge accuses him of showing disrespect to a judge during an administrative court session on 10 November 2025, while he is already serving prison sentences.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:11 AM

3/ The alleged offence carries a penalty of up to two years in prison, a fine, or corrective work.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:11 AM

4/ Melia’s lawyer, Giorgi Kondakhishvili, told TV Pirveli that Melia does not take this case seriously, insisting that he did not insult the judge.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:11 AM

5/ Melia is currently serving two sentences: 1.5 years for an incident involving throwing water at a judge (26 November 2025), and 8 months for failing to appear before the GD’s parliamentary investigative commission in June. He also faces charges in a so-called sabotage case.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:11 AM

McCain Institute’s @laurathornton.bsky.social will speak this Wednesday, February 11, at 2 p.m. with The Helsinki Commission to examine the deteriorating human rights situation in Georgia, Georgian Dream’s tactics to punish & demoralize dissenters, & paths forward: www.youtube.com/live/Xl3GZRt…

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— McCain Institute (@mccaininstitute.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 1:31 PM

It was September 2022 when my team at party Droa published an OSINT book on how the Georgian Dream helped Russia evade sanctions.

Back then, even for anti-GD people it seemed like an overstretched or at least something that will never yield to any serious international attention / results.

1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:29 PM

My party leader Helen Khoshtaria alongside several other democratic leaders face further prosecution over advocating for targeted sanctions against the regime (over Russia sanctions evasion and gross human rights violations).

2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:29 PM

And now we learn that a Georgian port, Kulevi, is under a risk of EU sanctions due to Russian oil sanctions evasion.

Even if it doesn’t pass through this time, the suggestion alone is a whole new layer of process…

3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:29 PM

I want the best for my country, and it’s precisely for that reason why the cancer must be diagnosed and cut out before it flushes down all of us and our millennia-long history down the Russian public toilet.

4/4.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:29 PM

Even Georgian Dream supporters are increasingly unhappy and concerned about where we are headed.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 6:41 AM

The EU:

‼️🇪🇺 EU plans to impose sanctions against third-country ports serving Russia’s “shadow fleet” for the first time — Sky News

The 20th package of EU sanctions includes the ports of Kulevi in ​​Georgia and Karimun in Indonesia. There are also proposals to add banks from Laos, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

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— Savchenko Volodymyr (@savchenkoua.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 2:20 PM

India:

🛑New Indian purchases of Russian oil have stopped.

With the new US-India trade deal, major Indian refiners are now finding other sources.

India previously bought 70-80% of ALL Urals oil shipped. Expect production to start dropping rapidly for lack of Urals oil buyers.📉💥

[image or embed]

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:26 AM

Hungary:

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán criticized NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s remarks about the possible deployment of Alliance troops in Ukraine. According to Orbán, such statements are “madness” and, in his view, bring Europe closer to war.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:41 AM

France:

French authorities have just taken down hundreds of Russian disinformation websites aimed at sowing division and installing far-right candidates in the coming elections.

Most of these sites were imitations of popular and trusted news outlets, populated with Ai content.

[image or embed]

— SPRAVDI – Stratcom Centre (@stratcomcentre.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 4:45 AM

The US:

Trump, in the middle of his latest unhinged Truth Social screed, claims that if Canada makes a trade deal with China, “the first thing China will do is terminate ALL Ice Hockey being played in Canada, and permanently eliminate The Stanley Cup.”

[image or embed]

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) February 9, 2026 at 6:00 PM

They’re eating the French Canadian goalies! They’re eating the Swedish forwards!

This diagram is in Polish, but fairly easy to understand.

The upper section is U.S. assistance for Ukraine during the Biden and Trump admin

The lower is russian drone and missile attacks during the same time frame

Tell me more about how Trump’s negotiations are working.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:06 AM

From RBC Ukraine:

Due to a critical shortage of Pac-3 interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, Ukrainian launchers were left empty last month, unable to counter ballistic strikes on energy infrastructure, according to a Financial Times report and an interview with Yurii Ihnat, Head of the Communications Department of the Ukrainian Air Force Command.

Colonel Yurii Ihnat said Ukraine’s air defense faces serious challenges when ammunition runs out faster than supplies from partners arrive.

“Some air defense systems sometimes stand empty while attacks still need to be repelled,” he noted, highlighting the difficulty for the country’s air defenders.

According to the FT report, the shortage reached a point last month where Patriot systems could not respond while Russian ballistic missiles struck Ukrainian power plants unimpeded.

Since the start of 2026, Russian forces have already carried out 217 attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector.

The Kremlin’s main goal remains to freeze the country and pressure its leadership into capitulation.

Despite frequent outages and a strained energy system, surveys from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology indicate that these attacks have not shaken Ukrainian resolve or created a widespread demand for concessions to Russia.

Ukraine has repeatedly urged Western allies to speed up the delivery of air defense systems and missiles.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emphasized that delays in weapons deliveries directly impact the protection of critical infrastructure under constant ballistic threat.

He noted that while Ukraine’s Defense Forces have significantly strengthened protection against Russian drones, the current level of defense remains insufficient, especially at key and most vulnerable locations.

More at the link.

Back to Ukraine.

Yaroslava Mahuchikh claimed victory at the World Athletics Gold Indoor Tour stage in Karlsruhe, clearing 2.01 meters!

Our Queen can fly! 🪽

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:57 AM

The reason:

This is what Ukraine is fighting for.

📹 darinka_la/TikTok

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:22 PM

Strikes by FP-2 guided drones with 100kg warheads on Russian targets, as well as rare footage of the FP-2 launch at the opening seconds.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:09 PM

Russian media report that Ukraine’s Defense Forces have eliminated Aik Gasparyan, the commander of the “ArBat” special forces battalion. During his lifetime, Gasparyan received the “For Courage” medal from Putin.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:47 AM

Fighters of the 412th SBS Brigade “NEMESIS” destroyed nine enemy multiple launch rocket systems, including the rare North Korean M1991 and two TOS-1A “Solntsepyok” systems. Video footage of the operations from January.
t.me/usf_army

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 10:52 AM

Looks like LTG Budanov’s merry band of mischief makers was able to infiltrate the GRU’s notorious wetwork unit.

1/3
Ukrainian intelligence penetration of Russia’s military apparatus is deeper than many assumed. HUR obtained medical records of GRU Unit 29155 commander Andrey Averyanov. Including a prostate exam. That’s not symbolism. That’s access

[image or embed]

— Lewi Whalberg (@anno1540.bsky.social) February 7, 2026 at 2:03 AM

2/3
The GRU is Russia’s military intelligence service: sabotage, assassinations, covert war abroad. Unit 29155 is tied to poisonings, coups, and deniable violence across Europe. It’s meant to be sealed, paranoid, untouchable.

[image or embed]

— Lewi Whalberg (@anno1540.bsky.social) February 7, 2026 at 2:03 AM

3/3
HUR is Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate. Since 2022, it has shown precision HUMINT, cyber reach, and deep Russian penetration. This episode illustrates asymmetric advantage: Ukraine sees inside systems Russia believed opaque.
Link: archive.ph/ThA7X

[image or embed]

— Lewi Whalberg (@anno1540.bsky.social) February 7, 2026 at 2:03 AM

Sumy:

This is how russia attacked Sumy today: a Gerbera drone releasing an FPV drone mid-air over the city.

This expands the scale of attacks and multiplies the danger — layered drones, harder to detect, harder to escape. A deliberate escalation against civilians.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:51 AM

In Konotop, Sumy region, Russian drone attacked a locomotive that was supposed to be coupled to a passenger train.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:51 AM

Kharkiv:

Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast:

In Kharkiv Oblast, a russian drone strike killed a woman and her 10-year-old son.

Russia attacked the residential area of Bohodukhiv with drones. One of them hit a family home, destroying it completely.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 12:30 AM

Video of a russian drone striking a house last night in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv region. 😨

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:45 PM

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv has moved *some* schools underground. It is good that we now have 8 of them, but it is very important to understand that for a city as large as Kharkiv, 8 schools are just a drop in the ocean. Most children here have been studying online for 4 years.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:26 AM

Our children are also under constant threat, living under russian drones and missiles attack. Russia kills them. This is a memorial in Kharkiv dedicated to the “little angels who will never grow up.” Those are their names on the cubes.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:26 AM

Kyiv:

Swans and ducks have settled on the unfrozen part of the Dnipro River in Kyiv 🦢🦆

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 9:01 AM

Odesa:

Autonomous anti-aircraft turret installed on a pickup intercepts Russian air target near Odesa.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 4:15 AM

This is the kind of night Odesa went through today. The city was attacked by approximately 15 Shahed drones simultaneously.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 11:15 AM

Russia occupied Crimea:

The story of one of the riskiest and most classified HUR special operations in occupied Crimea in 2016: a deep raid behind enemy lines, where the Russians considered themselves untouchable. Planned and led by Kyrylo Budanov.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHnJ…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:47 PM

Russia:

😎

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 3:24 PM

Bloomberg reports that Russia’s oil production fell for the second month in a row in January due to difficulties selling oil under U.S. sanctions. Sources say Russia produced an average of 9.28 million barrels per day.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article…

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 2:19 PM

This figure is 46,000 barrels per day lower than the already reduced level in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day below what Russia is allowed to produce under the OPEC+ agreement.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 2:19 PM

Rostov and Kursk Oblasts, Russia:

The General Staff reported that Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck a UAV storage facility in Russia’s Rostov region, where approximately 6,000 FPV drones were destroyed.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 9:39 AM

In addition, a command post of Russia’s airborne troops was hit in the Kursk region, and an ammunition depot belonging to Russian forces was struck in the temporarily occupied part of the Kherson region.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 9, 2026 at 9:39 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

In Kropyvnytskyi, animal welfare volunteers are setting up “Points of Invincibility” for homeless animals so they can survive the freezing temperatures.

📹 Radio Liberty

[image or embed]

— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) February 8, 2026 at 1:39 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,446: The Plot ThinsPost + Comments (14)

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