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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

Trump’s cabinet: like a magic 8 ball that only gives wrong answers.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

American history and black history cannot be separated.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

Finding joy where we can, and muddling through where we can’t.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

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CatGPT Open Thread

by Rose Judson|  February 12, 20262:12 pm| 26 Comments

This post is in: Cat Blogging, Open Threads, Pet Blogging

The Horrors come thicker and faster. In my personal corner of the world, the pressing issue is AI and the big chunk it took out of my income over the last six months. Contra the advice from this AI startup founder* (written with LLM assistance, natch), I am planning to go all-in on the other AI: Animal Intelligence.

behold, Monty the oracle

I guess I could also call him Clawed, or Purrplexity (Gemeowni is right out). Unlike your sycophantic chatbots, when I ask him to do a task for me, he baps me in the face. He also doesn’t burn a small city’s worth of power when executing tasks. Figured you all would want to know about this important breakthrough.

Open thread.

 

*If you want, you can read an annotated version of this piece by professional AI scold Ed Zitron, here.

CatGPT Open ThreadPost + Comments (26)

Fighting Global Authoritarianism, Inc.

by Betty Cracker|  February 12, 202611:09 am| 160 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Domestic Politics, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Venality, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome, Decline and Fall

In comments the other day, we were laughing about John’s recent misinterpretation of a BREAKING NEWS ALERT during the Olympics and musing about the personal joy we will individually experience and the spontaneous street parties, etc., that will eventually occur When It Happens.

That sort of daydreaming is harmless enough. But as we all know, the rancid orange fart cloud is merely an avatar for a much larger constellation of problems, and those problems won’t dissipate when their current mascot joins the Choir Invisible.

Josh Marshall at TPM published a piece yesterday about the global authoritarian movement that Trump is arguably leading right now but that will persist when Piggy hoofs it to hell. It includes Gulf princelings like Jared Kushner’s bone saw pal, European revanchist governments, post-Soviet autocracies and U.S.-based far-right tech and media oligarchs who control major communication channels.

The whole thing is worth reading, so here’s a gift link. Below is an excerpt:

I’ve discussed this concept in the past. So I don’t want to belabor the point of its existence. I want to point out how its forces are arrayed against civic democracy in the U.S. — quite apart from Donald Trump. This wasn’t always the case. There didn’t use to be so many U.S. billionaires. And they characteristically had economic views which aimed to preserve their wealth. But they were not clearly on the right in the way they are now. They have moved an increasingly anti-civic democratic direction as the scale of their wealth and their identity as a class has exploded. They also weren’t so increasingly allied with primitive economy petro-states of the Gulf.

The point is that they will exist no matter what happens to Trump. They command vast economic resources; they run the governments in many countries where the government never changes; they have deep tentacles into the U.S. political system and many of its key players are from the U.S. Trump didn’t create this movement precisely. But his role in global politics over the last decade solidified it as a self-conscious group and congealed it together. Any movement of civic democratic revival in the U.S. will be menaced by its continued existence. Now is the time to think about how a revived and revitalized civic democratic movement in the U.S. could combat it and avoid being destroyed by it.

Emphasis mine.

Piggy is flailing politically and deteriorating physically. He’s grasping at a “legacy” by gilding White House surfaces, slapping his accursed name on edifices and overseeing the construction of a garish ballroom.

But his real legacy is a more consolidated global authoritarian movement that assembled under his banner. Marshall asks how a revitalized civic democratic movement might combat it, but I think the answer is implied in the bolded sentence above, which is to end its existence as a threat.

Figuring out how to do that is above my paygrade, but taxing billionaires out of existence seems like an essential component, along with reestablishing a global democratic movement, hopefully with less cynicism and a more sincere commitment to human rights. I have no idea if that’s possible, but defining the opponent and understanding their weak points is a good start.

Whether deliberately or not Trump strengthened that alliance, but it’s possible his buffoonish flailing might provide opportunities to undermine it. I think Senator Ossoff is onto something here:

Ossoff: We were told that MAGA was for working-class Americans. But this is a government of, by, and for the ultra-rich. It’s the wealthiest Cabinet ever. This is the Epstein class. They are the elites they pretend to hate.

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— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) February 7, 2026 at 2:57 PM

What Ossoff says has the advantage of being true, but I have no idea if the message will break through. We’ll learn more as we live through these interesting times.

Open thread.

Fighting Global Authoritarianism, Inc.Post + Comments (160)

Do We Have a Real Shot at the KY Senate Seat?

by WaterGirl|  February 12, 202610:05 am| 66 Comments

This post is in: 2026 Elections, Elections, Open Threads

youtube.com/watch?v=cSiD…Here's Andy Barr with his embarrassing racist ad drop.Keep in mind, the Republican primary includes Daniel Cameron, the black McConnell protégé.Andy playing the Klan angle. @eddsmitty.bsky.social: get a load of this.

— PaulaEquine (@paulaequine.bsky.social) 2026-02-08T11:49:27.913Z

 

*****

BJ peeps, I have two questions for you.

Do we, in this cycle,  have a real shot at the Kentucky Senate seat?

What kind of paper is the Kentuck Lantern?  (I am impressed by this article.)

In a 30-second ad released over the weekend, U.S. Rep. Andy Barr — running for Sen. Mitch McConnell’s Senate seat — is pictured on a farm. The sun is shining. There is a barn and an American flag behind him. “You know what DEI really stands for?” he says, smiling. “Dumb, evil, indoctrination.”

The scene shifts and we see a black man in a crowd. He is wearing a Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. t-shirt and holding up a sign that reads “Stay woke America.”

“Woke liberals spew it,” Barr says, “corporate losers fall for it, but thanks to Trump, America is rejecting that trash.”

An interesting choice for the Barr campaign to release the ad on the heels of President Donald Trump’s racist social media post…

[the article goes on about the racist post bout the Obamas, and then it continues]

The Barr ad was likely already scheduled for release, but ads can be pulled. The ad ran and continues to run. The YouTube version already has 297,000 views as of this writing, and it must be noted that we are now a decade deep into Trumpism and Trump himself, whose presidential aspirations were initially fueled by his insistence that Obama did not have an American birth certificate and was, therefore, not American.

It was a lie. It was racist hogwash. It also launched Trump from elderly white billionaire New York City playboy reality show host, known for his bankruptcies and stiffing of contractors, straight into the White House.

The high spark of low standards and even lower morality.

[talks more about T’s lies about Obama and his birth certificate, etc, and then it continues]

Watching Barr’s most recent ad inflaming white hysteria, we see that we are still there: stuck in the past, stuck in racist tropes, stuck in an immoral morass of bold bigotry. The last words of his 30-second ad for a U.S. Senate seat are, “I’m Andy Barr. It’s not a sin to be white, it’s not against the law to be male, and it shouldn’t be disqualifying to be a Christian. I’m Andy Barr, and I approve this message to give woke liberals something else to cry about.”

I am white and have never heard that it is a sin for me to be white. I have yet to see anyone crying. Is there a law somewhere against being male? Funny, I can’t seem to locate it. And when did it become disqualifying to be Christian? The answer is … drumroll, please … never. What a fantastical farce.

I watched Barr’s ad more than a dozen times, and the central message seems to be: I am a white Christian man who will make liberals cry.

That’s it?

Is this a winning message for Kentucky Republican primary voters? Because it sure looks like this — not the economy or grocery prices, not the cost of health insurance, not education, not public safety or taxes or conservatism — is what Barr is banking on.

We often hear that, just because someone voted for Donald Trump, it does not mean that they are racist, that they are simply willing to ignore that the president is openly racist because he is a conservative doing conservative things. But this is also a lie. Conservatives, by name and nature, conserve things, and what we have witnessed over the last year of the Trump presidency with the destruction of everything from the East Wing of the White House to the U.S. Agency for International Development and other American institutions via DOGE, there is nothing conservative about him. There is only the power to destroy. And the racism. Always the racism.

In this great article, this is my favorite part.

It is 2026. Barr runs an ad in which he appears to believe simply being white and male qualifies him to be a United States senator.

The president posts a video about voting machines depicting the Obamas as apes.

In our statehouse, we are now years into fights by our mostly white, mostly male GOP supermajority to rid our institutions of any whiff of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI).

The racist spigot is wide open.

The moral rot is deep.

So, same question down here that I posed above.

Do we, in this cycle,  have a real shot at the Kentucky Senate seat?

Open thread.

Do We Have a Real Shot at the KY Senate Seat?Post + Comments (66)

Thursday Morning Open Thread: 99 PartyBalloons

by Anne Laurie|  February 12, 20267:08 am| 225 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Trump Crime Cartel

#OneBigUglyBill
abcnews.com/Business/us-…

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 7:56 PM

Repubs running for cover, Dear Leader be damned:

Asked a bunch of Senate Rs about the attempt to indict their colleagues Slotkin and Kelly. Their answers
Hawley: Video showed “terrible, terrible judgment, but I think trying to indict them for it was not a good idea.”
Cassidy: “I would not have brought it were I the president"

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— Burgess Everett (@burgessev.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:35 PM

Collins: “I’m not surprised that the grand jury declined to indict them"
Grassley: "our law enforcement people ought to be spending their time on making our community safe and going after real law-breakers"
Murkowski: "It’s very chilling … it’s a First Amendment right of speech here"

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— Burgess Everett (@burgessev.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:36 PM

===
Though boys throw stones at frogs in fun, the frogs die in earnest…

Thank you, brave patriots

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— Matt Novak (@paleofuture.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 12:43 PM

… A new report from CBS News suggests that infighting between the FAA and DOD is behind the chaos and confusion around the El Paso airspace. Earlier this week, DOD deployed anti-drone technology to shoot down what were believed to be foreign drones at the border. But at least one of the objects shot down was just a party balloon, according to CBS News. CNN has since reported that it was four mylar balloons…

The initial notice to shut down airspace over El Paso was both last-minute and extremely broad, covering every type of aircraft, including cargo, passenger, and military flights. The order was lifted after a few hours, and the reasons given by President Donald Trump’s officials didn’t make much sense to aviation experts.

“The FAA and DOW [sic] acted swiftly to address a cartel drone incursion,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in a tweet Wednesday, using an acronym for the so-called “Department of War.”…

CBS News reports that Wednesday’s disruption in El Paso stemmed from a disagreement between the Pentagon and the FAA over closing airspace for the tests of anti-drone tech, which reportedly included lasers. The U.S. military first shot down a drone with laser technology in 1973, but it wasn’t until the 21st century that lasers became more common in such applications…

The Pentagon uses nearby Fort Bliss for anti-cartel drone operations, and CBS notes that there appeared to be terrible miscommunication in the lead-up to the airspace closure. The abrupt nature of it all was surprising to local officials…

El Paso Mayor Renard Johnson:
"Medical evacuation flights were forced to divert to Las Cruces. All aviation operations were grounded, including emergency flights.
This was a major and unnecessary disruption. One that has not occurred since 9/11."

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— Matt Novak (@paleofuture.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 12:54 PM

So DOD risked civilian airspace to obliterate some fucking balloons; when FAA found out and asked them to stop they refused; FAA did what it had to keep people safe; when the public rightly freaked out, DOD relented, lied, and blamed the FAA.
Sounds like Hegseth!
www.cnn.com/2026/02/11/u…

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— Gillian Brockell (@gbrockell.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 5:58 PM

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>be F-35 pilot
>train your entire adult life for WW3
>be selected to test super secret prototype laser from Ace Combat
>the El Paso Remote Control Airplane Hobby Club won’t know what hit it

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— Starfire’s Deranged Neocon Foreign Policy Podcast (@irhottakes.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:28 AM

Never hire a Transportation Secretary who's only qualification for the job is competing in an MTV reality TV show called "Road Rules"

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— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 2:19 PM

I can just see some DHS dipshit with an 8th grade education, two DUI’s and a restraining order after beating up his girlfriend going, “Dude, check this out,” while trying to use his new death laser to cut a minivan in half to grab a toddler.

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— TBogg+ (@tbogg.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM

99 Luftballons but real, oh my god they're going to kill us all

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— Matt Gabriele (@profgabriele.com) February 11, 2026 at 1:26 PM

… The lyrics of the original German version tell a story: 99 balloons are mistaken for UFOs, causing a military general to send pilots to investigate. Finding nothing but balloons, the pilots put on a large show of firepower. The display of force worries the nations along the borders and the defence ministers on each side encourage conflict to grab power for themselves. In the end, a cataclysmic war results from the otherwise harmless flight of balloons and causes devastation on all sides without a victor, as indicated in the denouement of the song: “99 Jahre Krieg ließen keinen Platz für Sieger,” which means “99 years of war left no room for victors.” The anti-war song finishes with the singer walking through the devastated ruins of the world and finding a single balloon. The description of what happens in the final line of the piece is the same in German and English: “‘Denk’ an dich und lass’ ihn fliegen,” or “Think of you and let it go.”

Hey, look, it was Donald Trump’s favorite social era…

Thursday Morning Open Thread: 99 PartyBalloonsPost + Comments (225)

On The Road – lashonharangue – Monigotes of Mazatlán

by WaterGirl|  February 12, 20265:00 am| 8 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

lashonharangue

In the winter of 2024 I traveled to Mazatlán in Mexico to get away from the cold. Each year Mazatlán holds the third largest carnival in the world (after Rio de Janeiro and New Orleans). As part of the celebration, they select several artists to create large (3-5 meters) temporary sculptures.  

These sculptures are called monigotes (effigies) and are placed along the Malecón (coastal promenade) where the celebrations occur. They have an interior steel structure and are made using fiber glass and/or paper mâché waterproofed with oil paints and fabrics. Each year there is a different theme for the carnival. Since a total eclipse was scheduled to pass through Mazatlán in April, the theme for this carnival was “Baroque Eclipse.” While I didn’t attend the carnival, I was there just before so I saw and photographed some of the sculptures.

On The Road - lashonharangue - Monigotes of Mazatlán 7

This was one of the few sculptures I photographed during the day. They were so big I had to shoot from across the street. You can see the curb at the bottom of the photo. I had to time the photos for a break in the traffic and when there were no pedestrians around them.

On The Road – lashonharangue – Monigotes of MazatlánPost + Comments (8)

Late Night Open Thread: Pam Bondi, Careerist

by Anne Laurie|  February 12, 20262:56 am| 36 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Trump Crime Cartel

Bondi

Generally speaking I think that Bondi's performance is more indicative of a woman who wants to keep her job and can only do so by diving on a pretty serious pr grenade.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 12:42 PM

Attorney General Pam Bondi's testimony before the House Judiciary Committee was one of the most combative congressional hearings in recent memory.

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— Axios (@axios.com) February 11, 2026 at 5:28 PM

This is the sort of quick-burst reporting Axios was designed for:

… Why it matters: These kinds of explosive hearings are becoming increasingly routine for a Congress in which displays of anger have arguably become more valuable currency than legislative wins.

– The hearing got testy almost from the start, with Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) telling Bondi: “We ask you politely but firmly, please do not waste one second of our precious time.”

– Raskin told Bondi to give Democrats direct answers to their questions and not try to evade or run out the clock.

– “We saw your performance in the Senate, and we’re not going to accept that. This isn’t a game,” he added, referencing a “burn book” Bondi allegedly used to dredge up opposition research against Democrats…

Perhaps the most heated exchange was with Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), who questioned Bondi about Trump’s choice of Howard Lutnick as Commerce secretary despite his alleged ties to Epstein.

– As Bondi began to respond by referencing a slain Border Patrol agent, Balint shot back, “For goodness’ sake, this is pathetic … this is not a game, secretary.”

– “I’m attorney general,” Bondi responded, with Balint quipping, “My apologies, I couldn’t tell.”

– Bondi later went after Balint on her vote on an antisemitism resolution, with Balint angrily replying, “You want to go there? Are you serious? Talking about antisemitism to a woman who lost her grandfather in the Holocaust! Really? Really?” before storming out of the hearing.

Notice that Bondi doesn’t turn around.

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— Garrett M. Graff (@vermontgmg.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 2:03 PM

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i would say you can see why she went into law instead of acting, but it’s not clear to me she’s actually any better at it than she is at acting

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) February 11, 2026 at 11:17 AM

Raskin to Bondi: "You're not showing a lot interest in the victims. Whether it's Epstein's human trafficking ring or the homicidal government violence against citizens in Minneapolis, as AG you're siding with the perpetrators and ignoring the victims."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) February 11, 2026 at 10:22 AM

Bondi is Trump’s Ghislaine Maxwell

— drak-cola.bsky.social (@drak-cola.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:24 AM

Please note that she's READING this. She PREPARED this as a rebuttal for questions about Epstein. She planned this, had someone write it down, and read it.

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— Greg Pak (@gregpak.net) February 11, 2026 at 11:43 AM

So, to wrap up today's insanity:
President Trump, who is deeply implicated in a pedophilia scandal involving his best friend, the sex trafficker, sent Attorney General Bondi — who only has that job because Trump's first choice was also implicated in a separate pedophilia scandal — to the House…

— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 4:45 PM

… to stonewall releasing the full files about the president's pedophile friend, relying there on the friendly support of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan, who was himself implicated in the coverup of a *third* sexual abuse scandal at a college.
Cool. Cool cool cool

— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 4:48 PM

And as others noted, Bondi also helped cover up Epstein's crimes as Florida AG!

— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 4:52 PM

“We’re making billionaires even richer, so we should overlook the rape of children” is our own modern Omelas.

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— Malaclypse the Middle (@malaclypse.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 1:31 PM

The Atlantic’s profile of Bondi has some wow.
@theatlantic.com
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202…

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM


[Gift link]

… In Tampa, Bondi’s old friends are still trying to figure out what happened to the person they remember, but one of them, the close friend, told me that she has finally stopped trying. At this point, she knows. She has been friends with Bondi since their days at the courthouse in Tampa, and on through Bondi’s time as Florida attorney general, her decision to endorse Trump, and several years after that. She said that she loved Pam, that she had tried to understand Pam, to support her, to care about her, and maybe also to excuse her. She said that she is distressed by what she believes Bondi is doing to the rule of law in America, and distressed to have concluded why.

“She went cheap for power,” the friend decided, and now she has only one question left. “Was it worth it?”

This is some genuinely psycho shit…

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— brian pillion (@anaphoristand.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 3:02 PM

Late Night Open Thread: Pam Bondi, CareeristPost + Comments (36)

War for Ukraine Day 1,448: The Cost

by Adam L Silverman|  February 11, 202611:21 pm| 8 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A black and white cartoon with Popeye the Sailor Man facing forward and to the left. His word bubble says "I Yam Disgustipated"

There is no address from President Zelenskyy posted today. I expect this has to do with preparations to attend the Munich Security Conference.

The cost:

This is Milana, she was just 11 years old.

On February 10, Russian forces dropped seven bombs on Sloviansk, killing a mother and her daughter, Maryna and Milana Sokolenko🕯

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:34 AM

The reasons:

Ukrainian soldiers stand with Olympic athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych, who was banned by the IOC from wearing his “Helmet of Remembrance,” adorned with photographs of Ukrainian athletes killed in Russia’s war.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 1:41 PM

The third Ukrainian athlete, short track speed skater Oleg Handey, has been banned from using his helmet during the 2026 Olympics:

“I have a quote from Lina Kostenko written on my helmet: ‘Where there is heroism, there is no final defeat.’

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 11:49 AM

IOC banned it, saying it’s a political slogan, that it’s about the war, and it’s not allowed. I translated it word for word for them — no, they said, it’s a political slogan. For me, it’s just motivational words for myself, my team, and my country.”

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 11:49 AM

Dmytro Shepiuk voiced support for Vladyslav Heraskevych in his dispute with the IOC over the “helmet of remembrance.”

After his run at the 2026 Olympics, the skier’s glove bore the inscriptions:

“Ukrainian heroes are with us.”

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:19 AM

Zelensky responded to Russia’s overnight attacks on Ukraine: Every such Russian strike undermines trust in everything being done through diplomacy to end this war. The Russian army is not preparing to stop – they are preparing to continue fighting.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:04 AM

“There will be no negotiations in Moscow or Minsk. I cannot come to negotiations with Putin in the capital of a country that is the aggressor in this war.” – Zelenskyy.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 1:15 PM

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Georgia:

Day 441 of daily, uninterrupted protests in 8+ cities in Georgia. This is Tbilisi, the capital. 🇬🇪🇪🇺

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 1:32 PM

RFE/RL reported that the EU may include the Kulevi port, located in Georgia, in its 20th package of sanctions. In response to Publika’s question, Kaja Kallas said that they expect to discuss the Maritime Service Bank, adding that “unless everything is agreed, nothing is agreed.”

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:33 AM

According to the RFE/RL, a proposal prepared by the European Commission includes a ban on transactions with four specific port terminals in Russia and in “third countries.” The port of Kulevi is mentioned among them.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:35 AM

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:20 AM

Georgia, the most persistent civic resistance in contemporary Europe, needs one key ingredient — a viable political alternative. In the absence of a dominant, that means some form of unity among democratic parties.

Such an alternative would swing the process in several ways: 🧵

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:50 AM

1. Currently, most average Georgians are increasingly dismissive of the regime but most people have the feeling that their resource and sacrifice today would be just a shot in the air, & it would not flow into the common flow of victory. They don’t feel any backing protection; 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:50 AM

2. The elites need somewhere to defect to. Once they feel the growing pressure of international isolation and financial depletion, who would they talk to, a bunch of parties with no clear dominant or a consolidated alternative platform? 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:50 AM

3. Whenever I talk with the diaspora, they do want to fund the resistance, but are confused about whom to transfer the funds. Once they just get a “menu” of democratic parties, they often hesitate, since they don’t have much intimate trust towards any one. 4/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:50 AM

On an international level, I don’t believe the Georgian Dream could fully reverse legitimacy and isolation problem, but it’s much easier to impose sanctions and arrange high-level diplomatic meetings when there’s a “government-in-waiting.” 5/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:50 AM

I do believe in our victory, but the existence of a viable, unified alternative would greatly decide on whether it’s a protracted and grueling process or whether the victory is rather quick and civilized. 6/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:50 AM

And it’s not like international window of opportunities such as the EU integration could wait forever.

This is my position as well as party Droa’s position, and we spare no effort to make this happen. 7/7.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 6:50 AM

A truly Kafkaesque trial, with the intent to harm and repress but next to no substance, vague charges and random items such as “evidence, the prosecution has submitted records of viewing Zelenskyy’s website and Arakhamia’s website.” #Georgia

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— Hans Gutbrod (@hansgutbrod.bsky.social) February 10, 2026 at 11:18 PM

Orban’s loss will be a game-changer not just for the entire democratic world. He’s a Trojan horse.

Quite a remarkable example of how a flawed electoral system could doom the world.

Mixed-member proportional system gave unlimited power to Orban and the Georgian Dream, both.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 9:03 AM

Southeast Asia:

Russia is feeding “disposable” trafficking victims from South-East Asia into its meatgrinder as well as mercenaries from the region. “Southeast Asia’s Mercenary Pipeline”, by @munira.bsky.social.

thediplomat.com/2026/02/sout…

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— Keir Giles (@keirgiles.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 4:41 AM

From The Diplomat:

On January 26, United24 Media reported that according to Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, a “foreign mercenary from the Philippines fighting for Russia” had been killed in Donetsk. The deceased was identified as John Patrick, a citizen of the Republic of the Philippines. Evidence found on his person suggested he had received a mere week of training before deployment. Patrick reportedly had no Russian language capability, and when wounded, was left to die without assistance or evacuation – yet another odnarazki (disposable) casualty of Russia’s infamous meat grinder.

Less than two weeks before Patrick’s death, the Philippine Star had reported that the Philippine Bureau of Immigration had intercepted two Filipino men at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on January 2, believed to be bound for Russia as victims of a human trafficking scheme for illegal employment abroad. Both men were recruited through social media with promises of legal work in Russia at salaries of ₱100,000 to ₱150,000 (approximately $1,698 to $2,546) and the prospect of using Russia as a gateway to Europe. The article did not specify what kind of work.

Meanwhile, former Indonesian police service Brimob officer Muhammad Rio and ex-marine Satria Arta Kumbara went viral for their TikTok clips, showcasing videos of them fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. Rio revealed that he was recruited by the Wagner Group. According to news reports, Rio had deserted his post on December 8 and left Indonesia on the 18th, while Kumbara was dishonorably discharged in 2023. Rio shared battle footage with former colleagues, boasting of joining the Russian mercenary division and his substantial ruble salary.

What’s notable about these cases are the significant differences in motives and circumstances. Rio and Kumbara made it clear their participation in the conflict was financially motivated, and that they were drawn by salaries far exceeding what they could earn at home. Patrick, in contrast, died under circumstances that invited more questions than answers, but bore all the hallmarks of deception.

Southeast Asia Was Never Insulated From the Conflict

The involvement of foreign fighters in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not new. Following Russia’s invasion in 2022, both sides sought to replenish their ranks with foreign recruits. Ukraine established an international legion with offers of pay and citizenship, which is currently undergoing restructuring, and maintains that its recruitment operates openly and legitimately, even as volunteers accept that their service may carry legal risks at home.

Russia, meanwhile, leveraged the “mercenary mystique” cultivated by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group, a recruitment strategy President Vladimir Putin later formalized through a July 2025 decree permitting foreigners to serve during mobilization periods. At their peak, Wagner’s exaggerated and glorified battlefield exploits on platforms like TikTok earned them 1 billion views, adding to their appeal and enticing young men across the globe to lionize them.

What distinguishes the recent Southeast Asian cases is the divergence in how these men came to fight. Rio and Kumbara enlisted voluntarily, drawn by Wagner’s allure and salaries that dwarfed anything available at home. Patrick’s trajectory appears markedly different. While the specifics of his recruitment remain unclear, the circumstances of his death (minimal training, no language capability, abandoned without assistance) echo patterns documented across the Global South: employment agencies, social media platforms, and recruiters offering promises of legitimate work, only to deploy these individuals to the front lines. The interception of two other Filipinos just days before Patrick’s death, recruited under false employment promises, suggests these networks have extended their operations to the region.

This phenomenon is not isolated to Southeast Asia. In April 2024, Ukrainian forces captured Chinese nationals fighting for Russia. Interviews revealed these men were lured by salaries substantially higher than what they could earn at home, only to encounter poor battlefield conditions and inadequate preparation that left many disillusioned and desperate to return home. China’s Foreign Ministry responded by reiterating that Beijing discourages its citizens from involvement in armed conflicts. Yet investigations by Chinese journalists found that Russian recruitment adverts and combat livestreams from Chinese fighters proliferated on social media platforms like Douyin. Official messaging proved no match for digital recruitment infrastructure.

What began as voluntary recruitment driven by financial incentives has evolved into a form of systematic deception. Some fighters have been motivated by pay, others by ideological alignment with Russia’s narrative, and many out of ignorance and little understanding of the conflict’s geopolitical context. By late 2024, more reports emerged of increasingly nefarious operations: men deceived into combat roles and women duped into forced labor at drone factories in Tatarstan under promises of cushy jobs with pathways to Europe, only to find themselves assembling weapons destined for the front. Many were pressured to sign documents in Russian, which they couldn’t understand. The majority were drawn from Africa, South Asia, and South America, regions where economic precarity could be most easily exploited.

Media coverage has been loose with terminology, framing these individuals as mercenaries without regard for recruitment context. But the distinction between voluntary enlistment and trafficking is a profound one. Legal scholars have argued that fighters misled into combat should be classified as victims of servitude and human trafficking under international human rights law, entitling them to protections, including repatriation rights. The distinction shapes government’s diplomatic responses, determining whether they engage in quiet negotiations for repatriation or public denunciations and citizenship revocations.

Legal frameworks hinge on this categorization. Mercenary activity typically violates domestic law and invites prosecution, while trafficking victims may warrant consular assistance and rehabilitative support. The problem is that proving intent, establishing knowledge, and demonstrating coercion remain extraordinarily difficult when recruitment occurs through intermediaries operating across borders and digital platforms beyond state jurisdictions. Ukraine processes foreign POWs in accordance with the Geneva Convention, but many of these odnarazkis remain in limbo as their home governments display minimal urgency in securing their repatriation.

Regional responses have varied. Indonesia recently revoked the citizenship of Rio and Kumbara, a swift and punitive response that sent a clear message about participating in foreign wars without presidential approval. But citizenship revocation only matters if fighters decide to return, and does little to deter wannabe combatants or dismantle the networks that facilitate their departure.

More at the link.

The EU:

Kaja Kallas:

“We have to understand how the Russian negotiation tactic is. It’s always to demand something, absolute maximum, something that has never been yours. And then present threats, ultimatums, use force. And then eventually there will always be people in

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 9:39 AM

the West who will offer you something so that you walk away with more than you had.”

Absolutely 💯 Russian razvodnyak.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 9:39 AM

Kaja Kallas:

“The size of the Ukrainian army is not the problem because they haven’t attacked Russia.

The size of the Russian army is a problem for all its neighbors. The size of Russian military budget is a problem for all.

So we need to see what kind of concessions are they willing to make?”

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 9:47 AM

France:

“Cheap Russian energy stopped in 2022.
There is no way back.” – French President Macron.

‘Cheap russian energy’ is anything but cheap. The cost is measured not in money, but in Ukrainian blood.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 11:57 AM

Macron: Elon Musk is first a an over subsidised guy

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) February 11, 2026 at 3:31 PM

The Munich Security Conference:

This week’s Munich Security Conference comes at a volatile time in world history.

Last year, JD Vance stunned the world with his Munich speech. And this year’s security report says the US is leading the destruction of the post-1945 order.

What do you guys think we will see?

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 2:09 AM

The US:

Now we’re being pressured by Americans to hold elections under the threat of losing “security guarantees” (didn’t even know we had any). All because there’s a political calendar in D.C. that needs to look good for the midterms.

How do you propose this works?

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:18 AM

Do we put ballot boxes in the trenches under active artillery fire? Do we ignore the voices of millions of displaced people scattered across the globe? We have hundreds of thousands of soldiers in combat. Forcing an election during an active war without a ceasefire is just pure bullshit.

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:18 AM

I expect this will also go nowhere. President Zelenskyy, his team, and most Ukrainians have figured out they’re never going to get security guarantees from the US and this demand, while being made by Trump, is really coming from Putin who is convinced he can ratfuck a Ukrainian wartime election into bringing a quisling into power in Kyiv.

This is the reality of US aid to Ukraine under the Trump administration:

According to the Ukraine Support Tracker, U.S. military aid fell 99% in 2025, while EU aid rose 67%. Despite Europe’s increased support, the massive U.S. decline kept overall aid at previous levels.
www.kielinstitut.de/publications…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:05 AM

The largest donors in 2025 were Germany (€9 billion), the United Kingdom (€5.4 billion), Sweden (€3.7 billion), Norway (€3.6 billion), and Denmark (€2.6 billion).

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:05 AM

Back to Ukraine.

This morning in Ukraine:

It’s midday. Ukraine is under russian attack. Missiles explode as far west as Lviv.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 7:59 AM

Earlier today in Kharkiv:

Kharkiv is under russian balistic missile attack right now! Russia continues to terrorize civilians!

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 1:25 PM

Borschivka, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russian drone struck a healthcare vehicle near Borshchivka, Kharkiv Oblast.

The car was taking dialysis patients home.

A 63-year-old woman was killed. A 60-year-old patient was injured. The others suffered acute stress reactions.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 9:09 AM

Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russian attack set a shop ablaze in Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast.

At least seven people were injured.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 3:02 PM

Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast:

New details have emerged about the russian attack on a private home in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv region, that killed 3 children and their father‼️

Russians struck a family home with a Shahed drone. The house was completely destroyed and burned down, leaving the residents trapped under the rubble.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 8:09 AM

The victims of the attack were three young children: a one‑year‑old girl and two two‑year‑old boys, along with their 34‑year‑old father.

The mother, who is 35 weeks pregnant, was hospitalized with a traumatic brain injury and burns to her torso.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 8:09 AM

The entire day I’ve been thinking of them. They had just bought a new house and were preparing to do the housewarming, settling in, and awaiting the birth of another baby.

Last night, a russian Geran-2 strike hit their home directly, killing 34yo father Hryhoriy and their 3 small children.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 1:49 PM

Two twin boys Ivanko and Vladyk aged 2, their 1yo sister Myroslava were killed.

Only their mother survived.

Hryhoriy was a war veteran, he lost his leg in action.

How many more futures will be destroyed before russia’s terror is stopped? 💔

This is unforgivable.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 1:49 PM

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

Four people were killed and three injured in russian strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 3:06 PM

Kherson:

In Kherson a russian FPV drone struck a cargo truck carrying a fuel tank, causing an explosion and fire at a gas station.

Despite the dangerous conditions, firefighters extinguished the blaze and prevented it from spreading to the station’s building and equipment.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 12:39 PM

Fortunately no casualties were reported.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 12:39 PM

FP-1/FP-2 guided drone with 50/100kg warhead strike on the Russian Tor air defence system in Kherson region.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 10:02 AM

Ivanivske, Donetsk Oblast:

Ivanivske, in the Donetsk region, was once a peaceful and cozy village.

The russians have turned it into a scorched desert, destroying everything that was once dear to people living here, destroying their homes and lives.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 1:52 PM

Kyiv:

Two loud explosions in Kyiv – sirens still sounding after warnings on Telegram of two ballistic missiles incoming from fascist Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. No time for anyone to reach shelter. Just heard another series of blasts – reports say another two ballistics were incoming.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 7:29 PM

Russian/Iranian Shahed-type attack drones also incoming to Kyiv. Simultaneous Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and Dnipro. Earlier, infrastructure and business center struck in attacks on Odesa.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 7:35 PM

Ballistic attacks are so fast that, in the middle of the night, the most you can do is realize they’re coming. Heard eight powerful explosions. Now we are under a Shahed attack here in Kyiv.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 8:21 PM

Lyman, Donetsk Oblast:

Russian occupiers burned their own vehicle near the line of combat contact close to the city of Lyman.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 9:47 AM

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Partisans from the “Atesh” movement report that Russian occupiers are building a new military base in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region. The Russians are trying to create a rear base for training reserves and drone operators.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 7:25 AM

Large-scale construction is underway in the urban-type settlement of Myrne. A permanent field camp is being built there to accommodate personnel, as well as training grounds for UAV operators.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 7:25 AM

Russia:

Russian propagandist Tsaryov writes that the WhatsApp messenger has also been blocked in Russia.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 12:24 PM

Tambov Oblast, Russia:

A high-speed drone (jet drone?) is seen striking the Progress plant, a strategically critical Russian defense enterprise in Michurinsk, Tambov Oblast, and a second drone appears to strike off-camera. The plant produces components for Russian missile and drone navigation systems.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 7:19 PM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

In Belgorod this evening, air raid sirens are wailing and explosions can be heard.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 2:01 PM

Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

Russian media report that the “Lukoil-Volgograd” refinery is on fire after a drone attack. This key refinery in Volgograd is the largest producer of petroleum products in Russia’s Southern Federal District, processing over 15 million tons of oil a year and supplying Putin’s war machine.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 11, 2026 at 5:12 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

CAT OF CONFLICT:
Today’s Cat of Conflict is Oleksandra’s cat Compote (it’s also the name of a Ukrainian winter drink made from boiled fruit). Compote isn’t the biggest fan of his new sweater, but without it he gets really cold.

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— Tim Mak (@timkmak.bsky.social) February 4, 2026 at 9:39 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,448: The CostPost + Comments (8)

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