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War for Ukraine Day 782: If the Opposite of Pro Is Con, Then the Opposite of Progress is a GOP Majority in Congress

by Adam L Silverman|  April 15, 20248:55 pm| 33 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Speaker Johnson appears to have come up with a plan regarding the foreign military aid supplemental. It isn’t a good plan. It isn’t even a fully baked plan. But it is his plan.

JOHNSON, in the closed GOP meeting, says that Ukraine needs to stand on its own.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) April 15, 2024

Rep. Kevin Hern R-OK tells us the House GOP plan is separate votes on aid for Israel and Ukraine. Timing and details still TBD

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 15, 2024

Rep. Joyce says Johnson has reached decision on his "vision" for way forward on Israel/ukraine aid… but must still sell it to conference.

— Billy House (@HouseInSession) April 15, 2024

Kevin Hern, who leads the Republican Study Committee, says Johnson is doing “the right thing” with the foreign aid package.

— Max Cohen (@maxpcohen) April 15, 2024

JEFFRIES doesn’t rule out Dems voting for the rule but says he’s still waiting to see Johnson’s final plan:

“We’re not going to come to any conclusion on process until we understand the substance.”

— Heather Caygle (@heatherscope) April 15, 2024

Good luck with that.

The Israelis have figured out this game and they are now reading the US for feckless filth:

יש דיווחים שהדרג המדיני החליט על תגובה בטווח זמן מהיר. תגובה שלא תוביל לדבריהם למלחמה אזורית. אבל תהיה "נחושה" ו"נחרצת". ושהם מבינים שאיראן תגיב. לתגובה. שבאה בתגובה להתקפה האיראנית. אולי כל זה לוחמה פסיכולוגית בדרך למהלך חכם מאוד (נגיד מהלך טקטי נבון בעזה דווקא). אין אלא לקוות.…

— נדב איל Nadav Eyal (@Nadav_Eyal) April 15, 2024

Here’s a machine translation of the Hebrew: (emphasis mine)

There are reports that the political echelon has decided on a response in a quick timeframe. A response that they say will not lead to a regional war. But be “determined” and “resolute”. And that they understand that Iran will respond. for a response. which came in response to the Iranian attack. Maybe all this is psychological warfare on the way to a very smart move (let’s say a smart tactical move in Gaza actually). One can only hope. If not, here are my comments:
1. How will the system know what a determined military response is that will not cause war? As I have been posting for a few days now, the AMN and the Mossad in general have told the political level that their main assessment is that Tehran will absorb the elimination of Mahdoi. They also assessed that Hamas is deterred. Israel works with an intelligence community that is very good at tactical information and bad at understanding enemy intentions. And shows arrogance. This is not Just instills confidence.
2. If the response will be symbolic, no appropriate equation has been created for Iran’s (unbearable) attack. If the reaction is too harsh, it may lead to war. In such a situation, isn’t it better to adopt a policy of “we will choose the place and the time”? Giora Eiland, Gideon Sa’ar, Ron Ben Yishai, Amos Harel and many others think so.
3. The whole framing of “to respond or not to respond” is a lie. Of course you need to respond. The question is whether now. and public. I keep hearing this threatening talk of “need to respond” and it’s all false. There was no immediate response that night, and Israel can respond two months from now. in high or low signature. We have the ball. And all the talk of the equation of sorts: what will determine if an equation has been created that discourages us is our future behavior in relation to a situation similar to the one in Damascus.
4. An Israeli response is, of course, turning our backs on the West’s requests, which we have only recently improved our alliance with. It’s not bad in itself; The West proves in Ukraine that it knows how to stand by your side, but not completely and to the end. On the other hand, without him completely – Israel (or Ukraine) has no chance of really winning.
That’s why you need wisdom. And yes – the response may be measured and smart and wise. One that does not give the Iranians a reason to continue (can you imagine, an Iranian asset outside of Iran?). But wouldn’t it be more worthwhile to leverage the current situation for another, diplomatic event? Maybe it will happen again. There was talk last night. By and large, the Israeli system is Pavlovian conditioned to disdain for diplomacy. This is a mistake in such a war.
5. The most disturbing. Israel is led by a rather uniform security and political leadership, most of which carries a terrible failure, ego burn and a legacy that will accompany it into history. October 7. Alternatively: former chiefs of staff.
The parties compete who is more aggressive and leak that one or the other offered to respond that night. Because they are not a “girl with cuckoos”, to quote one common phrase in these circles.
I wonder if anyone in the discussions – I write someone because women unfortunately do not participate in them – raised the so civil issue of a holiday. Passover. of an entire people who are in post-trauma. Because if we respond, and then wait for Iran, we have arrived at Seder Pesach.
And yes – this is a consideration in war. It is also necessary to manage the spirit of the public. Churchill dealt with such things extensively. as well as in diplomacy. When necessary, he knew how to beg the Americans. But Churchill, unlike the leaders here, was not addicted to a military concept in the style of a rookie general.
6. I have every hope that there is some brilliant move made here by the Israeli system, and that things are not as transparent and dangerous as they seem from the outside. The goal of preventing a regional war is at the core of Israel’s goals in the war. Iran must pay a price, and Israel must continue to harm the Iranians who target terrorism on its territory. I’m not convinced that a transparent, quick, and public response will serve all of these goals. Many good people think like me.

This is why the Israelis have decided to hit Iran back as soon as possible, which Eyal also talks about in his tweet. When you look weak, because you are weak, your clients will ignore you, your allies will not be assured, and your adversaries will not be deterred. As for Bibi and his war cabinet: ayn strategik, raq taktik. No strategy, only tactics. I’ll have a bit more on this at the bottom of tonight’s update.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

“Shaheds” in the Skies Above Ukraine Sound Identical to Those Over the Middle East – Address by the President

15 April 2024 – 20:41

Dear Ukrainians!

A few summaries of the day.

I held a meeting of the Staff. Two key topics now are the frontline and the energy sector.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report on the areas where the situation is the most severe.

Special attention was paid to the battles for Chasiv Yar, the battles in the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk directions.

I am grateful to every soldier and commander, to all our units who are defending our positions and doing everything to stabilize the situation.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov reported on the implementation of contracts for the supply of shells and drones, as well as electronic warfare.

Today, the Staff had a separate and detailed discussion about the use of electronic warfare and the protection of critical infrastructure. This applies, in particular, to the energy sector – what is protected and what was, unfortunately, not sufficiently protected. Appropriate conclusions will be drawn.

We analyzed the necessary actions to restore generation and key power facilities.

There was also a report on the state of protection of critical infrastructure in the areas near the frontline and in the border area.

There were two important intelligence reports – by Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Ivashchenko and Chief of the Defence Intelligence Budanov – on Russian actions in the spring and summer. On what we must be prepared for – in all formats of possible hostile actions. Obviously, the madness in the Kremlin is still rampant, and the occupier will try to intensify assault and offensive actions. We will retaliate.

Today I also held meetings on our work with partners in the coming weeks. As before, the top priority will be air defense and weapons for our warriors on the frontline. Also, the consolidation of partners and the unity of the world will remain a priority.

The entire world witnessed allied action in the skies above Israel and neighboring countries. It demonstrated how truly effective unity in defending against terror can be when it is based on sufficient political will. Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan acted together and with maximum efficiency.

Together, they prevented terror from prevailing. And they are working together, and in coordination with others, to prevent further escalation.

Israel is not a NATO member, so no action, such as triggering Article 5, was required.

And no one was dragged into the war. They simply contributed to the protection of human life.

“Shaheds” in the skies above Ukraine sound identical to those over the Middle East. The impact of ballistic missiles, if they are not intercepted, is the same everywhere.

European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles.

Terror must be defeated completely and everywhere, not more in some places and less in others.

I thank everyone in the world, every leader and state, who truly assists us with air defense and missiles necessary to protect our skies, as well as training our pilots on F-16s. All of this already works and will continue to work to save lives. However, we can now see how unity can work truly a hundred percent, and how almost a hundred percent of “Shaheds” and missiles can be intercepted. We will discuss it with our partners.

One more thing. Today the Norwegian Foreign Minister is on a visit to Ukraine. I had a meeting with him. I expressed gratitude for the truly significant and principled support for Ukraine. Our teams have finalized negotiations with Norway on a bilateral security agreement, and we are preparing to sign it with the Norwegian leader. We are also working on expanding defense cooperation, in particular to bolster our air defense. We also appreciate that Norway provides Ukraine with long-term financial support – all forms of resilience are important in times of war.

I am grateful to everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine! I am grateful to everyone who has the determination to truly defeat terror!

I thank everyone in Ukraine who fights and works for our victory.

Glory to Ukraine!

LTG Budanov, the Director of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), sat for an interview with ICTV. It starts at the 4;37 mark of the reporting.

Here’s a machine translation into English of what was covered during the entire broadcast:

00:00:00 – The beginning
00:00:11 – Air alert in the regions – launch of the Shaheds
00:01:21 – How the intelligence of the Rubizh brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine works in the defense of Chasovyi Yar
00:04:37 – Budanov: In May-June, Russian troops plan to intensify fighting on the front line
00:05:16 – Shelling of Dnipropetrovs’k region on 15.04.24 – consequences
00:05:40 – Ukraine and Bulgaria hold Black Sea security conference
00:07:16 – Floods in the Russian Federation reached another region – Tomsk region
00:08:00 – A storm passed through Ukraine – consequences
00:08:37 – Ukraine to sign memorandum with Italy on restoration of historic center of Odesa
00:09:32 – In Odesa, a combat medic opened an Unbreakable coffee shop with the help of a microgrant
00:12:51 – Photo exhibition in memory of fallen soldiers opened in Vinnytsia

The cost, the price, and the reason:

Ukrainian veterans came to Minneapolis to receive new prostheses.

This is how they were met by the Ukrainian diaspora. pic.twitter.com/DMsC7LDi9E

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) April 15, 2024

Yana Stepanenko, a 12-year-old girl who lost her two legs in a Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk, has run 5 kilometers in @bostonmarathon on her prostheses. Yana is raising funds to provide prostheses for a critically wounded Ukrainian soldier. Yana is truly an inspiration! pic.twitter.com/FUtDDy89pc

— Oleh Nikolenko 🇺🇦🇨🇦 (@OlehNikolenko_) April 14, 2024

Instead of a thousand words.

Firefighter Andrii Hrechanyi ran a half-marathon wearing full firefighter gear yesterday.

He dedicated his run to his three Kharkiv colleagues killed by a Russian strike on April 4th. Andrii held their portraits his whole run.

📷: Grunt https://t.co/SBeTVQ0UfF pic.twitter.com/L3xCoqFrfU

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 15, 2024

More stupidity from members of the House GOP majority caucus:

So it makes it totally fine that Putin will end up exterminating and devouring “only” Ukraine? Okey dokey?

HOW DO THESE PEOPLE EVEN MAKE IT TO THE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FOR CRIYNG OUT LOUD https://t.co/qF89rdUeGL

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024

And some stupidity from the Biden administration:

Washington Post adds a new wrinkle to our @FT scoop last month that the US warned Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. Our original report: https://t.co/DRussu4cAs

WaPo, confirming FT reporting below, reports that VP Kamala Harris asked Zelensky… https://t.co/Ixi2m3BzJw

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 15, 2024

Washington Post adds a new wrinkle to our @FT scoop last month that the US warned Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. Our original report: https://ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c

WaPo, confirming FT reporting below, reports that VP Kamala Harris asked Zelensky personally to not strike Russian refineries.

New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian…

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) April 15, 2024

New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian retaliation inside Ukraine.

The request irritated Zelensky and his top aides, who view Kyiv’s string of drone strikes on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a grinding war of attrition. Zelensky brushed off the recommendation, but in subsequent weeks, Washington reinforced the warning in multiple conversations with Kyiv, including by Jake Sullivan, who traveled to Ukraine’s capital in March.

Instead of acquiescing to the U.S. requests, Ukraine doubled down on the strategy, striking a range of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery 800 miles from the font.

The incidents have exacerbated tensions in an already-strained relationship and come as Biden ramps up his reelection campaign amid a six-month high in oil prices.

Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals. U.S. officials say the rationale behind their warnings is more nuanced than critics suggest, noting that Moscow’s counterattack has hurt Ukraine more than the refinery attacks hurt Russia.

More details here:
https://washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/15/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-attacks/

Dudette’s gotta go!

Harris’s strategic malpractice likely explains this statement from Ukraine’s Foreign Minister:

“If partners tell us: “We’re giving you seven Patriot batteries tomorrow, but we have a request to you – can you not do this and that?”, then there’s something to talk about.

But if we don’t have the batteries, don’t have air packages, and we’re being asked not to do something……

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024

“If partners tell us: “We’re giving you seven Patriot batteries tomorrow, but we have a request to you – can you not do this and that?”, then there’s something to talk about.

But if we don’t have the batteries, don’t have air packages, and we’re being asked not to do something… then what do we have to talk about? Then everyone does whatever it takes to survive…

I cannot believe and I think no one in Ukraine would believe a power as large as the United States military does not have a single Patriot battery to save infrastructure worth billions of dollars, as well as priceless Ukrainian lives.”

– Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister @DmytroKuleba

By the way, it's been 4 months since the last authorised US military aid package for Ukraine, and lots of very ridiculous "foreign policy realists" insisted that Ukraine and Russia would broker a peace treaty if Ukraine was finally cut off.

All that has happened is that more…

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) April 15, 2024

By the way, it’s been 4 months since the last authorised US military aid package for Ukraine, and lots of very ridiculous “foreign policy realists” insisted that Ukraine and Russia would broker a peace treaty if Ukraine was finally cut off.

All that has happened is that more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been killed because Ukraine now lacks the ammunition to sufficiently defend itself, while Russia continues to rearm through its allies. The war is not only still ongoing, but Russia is gaining the upper hand.

Helping Ukraine or abandoning Ukraine. Those have always been the only two options on the table. There is no magic third approach which leads to peace, no matter how many times you’ve been fed that lie by charlatans.

Nuclear weapons are what sets apart the response of multiple countries to missile and drone barrages by Iran and Russia. The takeaway here is clear: if you want to be taken seriously, you must possess nuclear weapons. Decades of non-proliferation efforts continue to be undermined

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 15, 2024

Not only is Tatarigami correct here, but I expect that the Baltic states, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Poland are all working very quietly on how to remedy this deficit. I also expect Ukraine is doing the same. If the leaders of these states have not ordered the appropriate folks to work this problem set, then they are fools.

The Czech Republic:

Czech PM @P_Fiala: “We are working to secure a further 300,000 [artillery] rounds and have already contracted the first 180,000. These will be delivered to the Ukrainian front in the coming months.” https://t.co/ECGNlBkbkH

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 15, 2024

From The Financial Times:

The writer is prime minister of the Czech Republic

The Czech ammunition initiative has attracted considerable international attention. This is a positive thing. At the moment, European nations buying additional artillery ammunition from other countries is the only way to quickly provide Ukraine with urgently needed rounds.

The situation in Ukraine is critical. As the war enters its third year, the country’s armed forces are under unprecedented pressure. They are running out of ammunition, meaning they are forced to make difficult decisions every day. This makes it extremely hard to hold their lines — the very lines that will decide the security and future of the whole of Europe.

Russia, on the other hand, has plenty of military assets. How many more rounds is the aggressor firing at this moment? One estimate gives the Russians a fivefold advantage.

Fortunately, western democracies recognise that it is impossible to be impartial in this conflict. In addition to financial, humanitarian and refugee assistance, we have not hesitated to deliver much-needed arms and ammunition from the beginning.

Unfortunately, we have not been able to move as quickly as Ukraine needs, and our defence industries have not yet been able to meet such high demand.

We are therefore looking for new ways to overcome these challenges. The Czech Republic’s answer to this question is the ammunition initiative. Its purpose is to find hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds as quickly as possible on world markets (where they are still available in abundance), to finance their purchase with co-operating western states and to get them to the front without delay.

The scheme is deceptively simple, which is why it has achieved significant success so soon after its launch. We are working to secure a further 300,000 rounds and have already contracted the first 180,000. These will be delivered to the Ukrainian front in the coming months. We could never have achieved such promising figures without the strong initial support of Denmark and the Netherlands — and some 20 other countries who later joined us in pledging their help.

The Czech Republic has been supporting the defenders of Ukraine for a long time. Over the past two years, we have supplied them with more than 1mn large-calibre ammunition rounds. This shows that our current initiative is not a one-off stunt. We are striving to create a robust ammunition supply mechanism that will directly help turn the tide on the frontline. To do so, we are leveraging our unique expertise, grounded in long-standing support for Ukraine, the strength of our defence industry and our historically established contacts in third countries.

This initiative also has another, equally important, aim: to give the west more time to adapt. War is changing our world; the days of complacency are over. This means we can no longer avoid fundamental changes at home, such as strengthening societal resilience and rebuilding sufficient defence capacity. We need to get used to the fact that a responsible security policy must include much greater investment in defence to deter attackers. Otherwise, we will not fare well in an era of resumed competition with Russia and other aggressive actors.

Luckily, all these changes are taking place: we are investing much more in security and modernising our defence forces. Nato is expanding. And even those actors in individual countries who until recently believed it was possible to negotiate sensibly with Russia are now fully aware of their share of responsibility.

The Czech initiative is part of these efforts. Its aim is to fill the ammunition gap, especially until Europe can produce enough ammunition on its own. We will not shrug off this responsibility.

There were air raid alerts across Ukraine again this morning.

Air raid alert is in Kyiv region, and some other regions now, due to ballistic rocket strike danger. pic.twitter.com/MBAJrbgqGd

— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) April 15, 2024

Russian glide bombs incoming… try and imagine this hell that the Ukrainian military is going through every single day of this war as free world leaders can’t get rid of their paralyzing fear of Vladimir Putin’s global intimidation. pic.twitter.com/FFDUqtTGQE

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024

Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast and Dnipro:

Explosions reported in Dnipro!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 15, 2024

Kharkiv:

These minutes, russian troops are launching missile strikes on Kharkiv Oblast! Multiple explosions have been reported.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 15, 2024

Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

April, 2024. The village of Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region.
There is not a single undamaged house left here. russian terrorists destroy everything on their way.
The russian invaders must be stopped and punished.

📹: Operational Command South pic.twitter.com/VDQ9i8EKBi

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 15, 2024

Serebryansky Forest, Luhansk Oblast:

Serebryansky Forest.
The hellscape of the Russian war. pic.twitter.com/Cm7qbKeBTR

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024

 

Moscow:

🇷🇺 Gerasimov said that Russian troops will use the experience they gained during their “special military operation” in Ukraine to prepare CSTO troops.

Ukraine is just a warm-up for the Russian war machine. Every next war will get worse. pic.twitter.com/Ciy5eoDbq1

— Victoria (@victoriaslog) April 15, 2024

She says there is a feeling in the Israeli security establishment that Israel cannot afford not to retaliate. (not verbatim)

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 15, 2024

you can see the Harel event https://t.co/unYNXHMj57

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 15, 2024

Here’s the full video:

Last night Subsole asked:

So if Israel decides to go War of the Cities, what sort of defenses does the Iranian theocracy have (besides some impressively hardened facilities and a scaldingly comprehensive disregard for their citizens’ lives)? I have read they have pretty solid air defenses, but I don’t know if that refers specifically to aircraft, or includes everything else.

Because if one side has defenses, however imperfect, and the other does not…that is a fire Iran may regret playing wwith. Along with a great many others.

Here’s something some guy named Silverman wrote about this back in 2018. That guy’s making me look bad!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

There is always a place for kindness.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/NsCuzMkhVl

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 15, 2024

Little dusty in here.

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

🤝🏻 #дснс #патрондснс

♬ original sound – A2 – A2

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 782: If the Opposite of Pro Is Con, Then the Opposite of Progress is a GOP Majority in CongressPost + Comments (33)

Monday Evening Open Thread: Another ‘Rich’ Narcissist, Having A Bad Start to His Week

by Anne Laurie|  April 15, 20247:19 pm| 146 Comments

This post is in: Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Tech News & Issues, Schadenfreude

This just keeps getting funnier. Tesla operates like a startup, and it’s clear that comes from the lack of focus and seriousness at the very top of the organization. Build quality and reliability keeps getting worse, not better. https://t.co/dyrI9o33zR

— Jean-Michel Connard ??? (@torriangray) April 15, 2024

Cybertruck deliveries halted due to car being a big piece of shit that doesn't work: https://t.co/qUPo6eZthW

— Defector (@DefectorMedia) April 15, 2024

Patrick Redford, at Defector:

Tesla, a future case study for securities law classes across America, had to stop delivering Cybertrucks this past weekend. No, not because the hundred-thousand–dollar medium-duty pickup, which is only any of those things in the loosest interpretive sense, tends to brick when it gets rained on; nor because its stainless steel panels get all rusty and nasty-looking after weeks exposed to the rare, harsh condition of “being outside.” Perhaps you think it has something to do with the shorter-than-advertised driving range and longer-than-advertised charging time, but no: Rather, the cause of this snag is that the trucks struggle with the basics of stopping and going, by which I mean that the accelerator pedal cover slides off and gets stuck under a panel and locks the accelerator pressed down and keeps the Cybertruck stuck at maximum velocity…

Suckers who ordered Cybertrucks a few months or years ago and expected deliveries this weekend did not get their cars, nor a precise explanation for why they did not get their cars, but instead were simply told, “Hi, we have just been informed of an unexpected delay regarding the preparation of your vehicle. We need to cancel your delivery appointment for tomorrow and we will reach out again when we’re able to get you back on the schedule.” Maybe someone with a hot glue gun will get on this one…

As the Bay Area is both a nexus for world-class goobers and the region where Tesla used to be and kinda-sorta still is headquartered, I have seen a lot of Cybertrucks out in the wild over the past few months. They are remarkably fake- and shitty-looking in any context (Is that a big toaster with wi-fi next to me at the exit? Who’s driving the scrap metal assemblage with Bryan Colangelo-esque proportions? Why does every Cybertruck driver I glance at appear to be simultaneously peacocking for attention but also totally embarrassed, haunted by the unexamined knowledge that as a maneuver in a culture war they paid $100,000 for a car that doesn’t work?), though I saw one in the Santa Cruz mountains this past weekend. It looked even more jarringly synthetic and stupid in a truck-style environment, as if 10 seconds on a semi-paved road would undo the whole rickety car. I felt, amid standard-issue disgust and mockery, personal embarrassment to be paying through the nose to live in a place where the coolest thing you can do is cosplay as a 6-year-old’s idea of the coolest guy in the world.

 

Tesla to cut 14,000 jobs as Elon Musk bids to make it ‘lean, innovative and hungry’ https://t.co/5kXQNhJyO3

— Guardian Tech (@guardiantech) April 15, 2024


The BBC, via Yahoo Finance (British publications have a five-hour head start):

Tesla will lay off more than 10% of its global electric vehicle workforce.

In a memo, first reported by news website Electrek, billionaire owner Elon Musk told staff there was nothing he hated more, “but it must be done”.

The world’s largest vehicle-maker by market value had 140,473 employees globally as of December, according to its latest annual report…

The electric vehicle (EV) maker has been slow to refresh its aging models as high interest rates have sapped consumer appetite for big-ticket items.

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There is also the ongoing pressure from China as the rise of their inexpensive EVs have begun to flood the market with affordable models.

The company is set to report its quarterly earnings later this month but has already reported a decline in vehicle deliveries in the first quarter, its first in nearly four years and also below market expectations. Some analysts described the results as “tumultuous.”…

Elon Musk has recently denied reports that the company has scrapped plans to produce an inexpensive car, which has been one of his longstanding goals to make affordable EVs for the masses.

Tesla shares were down 0.8% in premarket trading on Monday.

Sadly fitting that this comes right as they abandon the 'for the masses' goal mentioned right out of the gate. https://t.co/Usj4Ahmjv7

— Clean Observer (@Hammbear2024) April 15, 2024

Lol. Lmao. https://t.co/q40WNe4quL

— Mike Stuchbery ???? (@MikeStuchbery_) April 3, 2024

Possible US Tesla customers are now reconsidering buying the electric vehicle’s products, according to Caliber, a market intelligence company. This is mostly due to owner Elon Musk’s increasingly worsening reputation, fuelled by highly controversial statements, tweets and right-wing politics.

Caliber’s Tesla “consideration score”, obtained exclusively by Reuters, dropped to 31% in February 2024. This was a fall of 8% on January’s score, as well as a steep plunge from November 2021’s record high of 70%.

Conversely, the consideration scores for other high-end car makers, with both electric and gas options, such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi for February 2024 were all between 44% and 47%…

Tesla has been doggedly slashing prices in China, one of its key markets, for the past few months, in order to compete better with Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers such as BYD. This helped the company to see robust sales last year.

However, Tesla is still expected to report declining first quarter 2024 sales in the coming few days, most likely due to a combination of clients’ cutting back on spending, as well as lagging deliveries…

Tesla’s deliveries, which touched about 422,875 in Q1 2023, are expected to be considerably less in Q1 2024. The company’s share price also took a nosedive of about 30% in the first three months of this year, eroding about $40 billion (€37 billion) of Elon Musk’s wealth…

Recently, Musk’s $55.8 billion Tesla pay package was also declared void by a Delaware judge, who called it excessive and “unfathomable”. This came after a shareholder sued Tesla, claiming that Musk was overcompensated. The ruling led to Musk losing his crown as the world’s richest man and sliding down to second place, following Bernard Arnault, the CEO of luxury goods company LVMH.

He spent $44 billion to renew his Babylon Bee subscription https://t.co/lWAcgOX8cU

— zeddy (@Zeddary) April 15, 2024

Monday Evening Open Thread: Another ‘Rich’ Narcissist, Having A Bad Start to His WeekPost + Comments (146)

Righteous Rant Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  April 15, 20244:13 pm| 108 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I never embed TikTok videos – most of the time TikTok videos don’t even play for me on this device – but this is one righteous rant!

@ang.rose1 No response IS a response. Dont sit around and allow hate to be spread. Stand up and SAY SOMETHING. Thank you Senator Bisignano #iowasenate #transgender #lgbtq #representALLconstituents ♬ original sound – Ang

h/t SWMBO

In case anyone is interested in something besides the NY trial jury selection.

Righteous Rant Open ThreadPost + Comments (108)

Henry Would Like His Lunch Right Now, Please (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  April 15, 20241:09 pm| 170 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

So, at 5:30 am, we were rudely awakened to the sound of the fire alarm screaming:

Fire!  Fire!  Fire! (pause)

Fire!  Fire!  Fire! (pause)

Fire!  Fire!  Fire! (pause)

repeat 20x

(Thankfully it was a false alarm, but it does get you out of bed, rounding up the pup and kitties, etc.)

Henry Would Like His Lunch Right Now, Please
I fed them at 7, which was too early, but we had all been up for 90 minutes by then, so it seemed only fair.

So of course Henry at 11 am, Henry decided it was lunchtime and would not be convinced otherwise.  Henry: 1, WaterGirl zero.

By 9 am, the 3 smoke detectors had been replaced, and hopefully that will be the end of the excitement for awhile.

Thought we could use a light open thread while waiting for the trial to come back in session.

Open thread.

Henry Would Like His Lunch Right Now, Please (Open Thread)Post + Comments (170)

Take the Fucking Win

by WaterGirl|  April 15, 202410:48 am| 160 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Politics, War in Ukraine

I suspect we are going to have a rocky week ahead.

Live from New York, it’s Saturday Night!   Let’s try that again.  Live from New York, it’s Donnie’s first criminal trial.  For real!

News from NY: Judge Merchan has DENIED Trump’s motion for him to recuse.  Unsurprising, but great news nonetheless!

.

She really is Putin’s puppet, isn’t she?  She is talking about “Ukrainian Nazis”.

Funny, Putin said the same thing 🤔 https://t.co/5BXYi9IkdC

— Jared Moskowitz (@JaredEMoskowitz) April 14, 2024

Though I do have to agree with her on one thing.  They should have been separate bills because Ukraine is being fucking attacked night after night after night.  I completely believe that Bibi launched his attack on Iran as a way to tie President Biden’s hands as he was this close to telling Bibi no more weapons until you stop what you’re doing, for real.

I hope this is an indication that Biden’s pressure on Bibi is working.

A week after stating that a date has been set for a southern Gaza – Rafah operation, Israeli PM Netanyahu has decided to postpone the operation. -Kann News pic.twitter.com/4sSJDF1ugL

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) April 14, 2024

Take the win, Bibi.  Take the fucking win.

“You got a win. Take the win.”

That’s really good advice from Biden to Netanyahu.

Early on, this Iranian attack looked like it might have been worst case scenario. Thankfully, it turned out to be mostly noise and bluster.

Israel should use this opportunity to deescalate. https://t.co/MWQisCGOpt

— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) April 14, 2024

.

GOP has to choose now:

America, Israel, Ukraine, the West
or
Trump, Russia, Iran, Hamas https://t.co/NfwRjuiK1P

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) April 13, 2024

Such a relief to have competence on our side.

Say the obvious: the last week was a tour de force of international crisis management for the Biden White House. https://t.co/pAyFdMy5lq via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) April 14, 2024

Josh Marshall (TPM)

The U.S. telegraphed more or less exactly what Iran was going to do via extremely good intelligence (reminiscent of the lead up to the invasion of Ukraine). It undoubtedly played a huge role bringing Jordan, Saudi Arabia and likely other Arab states into active and public armed action in defense of Israel. It positioned and deployed U.S. anti-ballistic destroyers and aerial assets to itself shoot down roughly a hundred of the estimated 300+ aerial devices Iran launched at Israel. Together, Israel, the U.S. and various allied Arab states took down 99% or more of all those devices. Iran launched a massive aerial bombardment and virtually none of it got through. And now the U.S. has managed to get Israel not to launch an immediate and inevitably escalatory retaliation.

It goes without saying that no administration works on its own. It comes to the game with the world’s most powerful military and major power status. It’s operating with Arab allies who have been gravitating toward a de facto anti-Iran alliance with Israel for years. And yet, anyone who knows anything about foreign or defense policy knows that most of it is all the endless number of things that can wrong and the one or two ways they can go right. Navigating the last week to this point today is a tour de force of international crisis management for the Biden White House.

Open thread.

Take the Fucking WinPost + Comments (160)

Campaigns, cash and poorly attached voters

by David Anderson|  April 15, 202410:04 am| 27 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Elections

538 notes that Trump is doing very well among non-voters in the polls.  Biden does very well comparatively speaking among the always voters with a fairly linear gradient of support changes as voting intensity increases.

 

Chart of sub-group vote intentions by # of times voted in past 3 election (0 to 3). Biden does best with always voters. Trump does best with never voters.

I am not a political professional. However, I did enough paid GOTV and GOTV data munging work in my twenties to know a few things. Getting the always voters out to vote is easy. There might be a post-card reminder where their precinct hall is. Perhaps a reminder call that there will also be a bake sale set up in the library parking lot on election day and they make incredible blondies. But that is about it. Always voters are predictable and a campaign does not need to do much to get those voters.

Seldom and never voters are the exact opposite story. Some of them are presidential election only voters. They need to be called. They need to be door knocked. They need to be mailed.

Some of them are never voters… and to get one marginal vote out of this cohort takes a tremendous amount of effort. Converting a never voter into a voter for my preferred candidate is expensive and time consuming. It requires a lot of money and a lot of time and one hell of an organization to apply those resources to the right people in the right doses.

Now the question is — which candidate is likely to have the time, resources and organization to convert never voters into voters at a favorable rate?

I know where I’m placing my bets.

Campaigns, cash and poorly attached votersPost + Comments (27)

Monday Morning Open Thread: The Tariff We Pay for Civilization

by Anne Laurie|  April 15, 20248:46 am| 154 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Proud to Be A Democrat, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, Space

The IRS is quicker to answer the phone on this Tax Day https://t.co/JRDIRCKPnt

— The Associated Press (@AP) April 15, 2024


Getting what we (*finally*) pay for, per the Associated Press:

On this Tax Day, the IRS is promoting the customer service improvements the agency rolled out since receiving tens of billions in new funding dollars through Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act.

From cutting phone wait times to digitizing more documents and improving the “Where’s My Refund” tool to show more account details in plain language, agency leadership is trying to bring attention to what’s been done to repair the agency’s image as an outdated and maligned tax collector.

The promotion also in part is meant to quickly normalize a more efficient and effective IRS before congressional Republicans threaten another round of cuts to the agency. So time is of the essence for both taxpayers and the agency this season.

“This filing season, the IRS has built off past successes and reached new milestones,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on a Friday call with reporters. “It’s showing that when it has the resources it needs, it will provide taxpayers the service they deserve.”…

 
Consumer promo!

I've Direct Filed literally last Monday, got all my refunds yesterday, and still can't quite get over this.
What is this sorcery???? Where is the America I know, where the government gives you a long math test every year, the punishment for failing which is fines and prison?
Wow. https://t.co/sv7wmIeCOZ

— Slava Malamud 🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@SlavaMalamud) April 13, 2024

I pay what I owe.

Tomorrow I will wire transfer to the IRS

$288,000,000.00

This country has done so much for me, I’m proud to pay my taxes every single year.

Tag a former president that you know doesn’t https://t.co/jxuICxOIAr

— Mark Cuban (@mcuban) April 14, 2024

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Are there places where I wish the government was smarter with spending? Sure. I don't use that as an excuse to think paying taxes is bad, even if it's painful at times. It's a civic duty. I'm investing in my fellow Americans.

— Jean-Michel Connard 좆됐어 (@torriangray) April 14, 2024

My dad began life in the deepest depths of poverty. When he was admitted into college, he almost didn't attend, only choosing to go when he got grants and scholarships; a decade later he saved lives in the ER as an MD.

Paying taxes is an act of patriotism. I'm happy to pay mine. https://t.co/faX1Ehm7lR

— God-Emperor Joe Brandon (@Alejandro27Ale) April 15, 2024

NASA releases free e-book on Hubble space mysteries https://t.co/znQNc7gmZE

— The Sojourner Truth (@sotrueradio) April 14, 2024

And a little reward, to see what you’re getting for your money. Per the Washington Post, “NASA releases free e-book on Hubble space mysteries”:

Since 1990, the Hubble Space Telescope has offered scientists an incredible view of the universe. It has provided well over 1 million observations.

Now, NASA has released “Hubble Focus: The Dark Universe,” a free e-book that explores what the Hubble mission has taught scientists about dark matter and dark energy — and how those lessons are shaking up long-standing theories…

The free book goes over some of the discoveries enabled by the Hubble mission and breaks down the mysteries it has uncovered in plain English. It is also packed with photos from the mission and quotes from experts, and contains links to videos that dive further into such topics as the Hubble constant, the rate at which the universe is expanding.

“Much remains to be done, but this book will give you a front row seat to what’s been happening in this quest,” Hubble operations project scientist Ken Carpenter said in a news release. The book is the fifth in a series of similar volumes about the Hubble mission and its discoveries.

Ready to learn more about the mysterious forces around you? You can download the book in PDF or EPUB format at bit.ly/hubblebook

Monday Morning Open Thread: The Tariff We Pay for CivilizationPost + Comments (154)

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