Good evening, occupiers !
It’s HIMARS o'clock! pic.twitter.com/4xHpBcaj9o— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 29, 2022
While there is widespread social media chatter in anticipation of whether/when/if Russia will actually loose those 200 missiles, rockets, and bombs on Ukraine, I haven’t seen any reports that the attack is imminent or underway. And based on the reporting their was a 10 minute air raid warning early today, but that has been it so far. Here is the butcher’s bill so far:
Over the past nine months, russia has launched more than 16,000 missile attacks on Ukraine.
97% of russian targets are CIVILIAN.
We are fighting against a terrorist state. Ukraine will prevail and will bring the war criminals to justice. pic.twitter.com/IGsC09G4Hr— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) November 28, 2022
So while we wait safely holding hope that the Ukrainians in harm’s way will be spared the anticipated onslaught, we begin, as usual, with President Zelenskyy’s address. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, we took several new steps to restore justice to Ukraine, to bring to justice all those responsible for this criminal war.
We are already cooperating with many countries and international organizations so that every Russian murderer receives the deserved punishment. We have already established cooperation with the International Criminal Court and will increase it.
But, unfortunately, the available international legal instruments are not enough for justice.
Even in the International Criminal Court, it is still impossible to bring the highest political and military leadership of Russia to justice for the crime of aggression against our state – for the primary crime. The crime that gave birth to all other crimes of this war – and not only after February 24, but also from 2014. That’s when it all started.
For there to be responsibility for aggression, a Special Tribunal is needed – in addition to the International Criminal Court. And we are doing everything to create such a tribunal.
Today, the address of the First Lady of Ukraine to the Parliament and the people of Great Britain was dedicated to this task exactly.
Olena’s visit to the United Kingdom is currently underway. And on behalf of all Ukrainian men and women who suffered from Russian aggression, she called on Great Britain to become a leader in global efforts to establish a Special Tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine and to restore justice.
The British have this experience, it is part of our shared historical memory. In the winter of 1942, when no one could predict when World War II would end, it was in London that representatives of the Allies signed the Declaration of St. James’s Palace. The document that started the path to the Nuremberg trials, that is, to justice after that war.
Now we already have strong cooperation with the Netherlands, which is helping with the creation of a prosecutor’s office to collect evidence of war crimes. We are working with France, which helps us in field work to document Russian evil.
And we must unite the world majority in support of the draft resolution of the UN General Assembly regarding the Special Tribunal.
We must develop the necessary legal architecture to make the tribunal work. We must fully implement this clause of our Peace Formula and really ensure justice after this war, just as after the Second World War. I believe that Great Britain will show its leadership precisely in this struggle for justice.
Today, the Russian War Crimes exhibition was opened in London – this is a project that demonstrates to the world what Russia has brought to Ukrainian soil. This exhibition worked in Davos, during the World Economic Forum, also in New York – during the UN General Assembly, in Brussels, at the headquarters of NATO. Now the British will see it. All leading countries will know and see what evil Russism is responsible for.
A meeting of justice ministers of the G7 countries was held in Berlin – an extremely useful one. Ukraine was represented there by the Prosecutor General and the Minister of Justice of our country. This meeting was devoted precisely to bringing the occupiers and the aggressor state to justice for everything they have done. Following the meeting, we can see an obvious willingness to work together to eventually restore the force of international law, restore the full effect of the UN Charter and bring Russia to a fair liability.
I spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz today – it is Germany that chairs the G7 this year. We discussed our cooperation both at the bilateral level and in international institutions. The priorities are clear – protection against missile terror, energy restoration, food security. I thanked the Chancellor for his support.
The situation at the front is difficult. Despite extremely big Russian losses, the occupiers are still trying to advance in the Donetsk region, gain a foothold in the Luhansk region, move in the Kharkiv region, they are planning something in the south.
But we are holding out and – most importantly – do not allow the enemy to fulfill their intentions. They said they would capture the Donetsk region in spring, summer, autumn… Winter begins this week already. They wasted their regular army there, they lose hundreds of mobilized and mercenaries there every day, they use barrier troops there…
This year, Russia will lose a hundred thousand of its soldiers killed and only God knows how many mercenaries. And Ukraine will stand. And the world will do everything to ensure that everyone guilty of this criminal war is brought to justice.
And I also want to thank the Netherlands for today’s decision – the House of Representatives of the States General recognized Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Step by step, the world will put everything in its place.
Glory to all who fight for freedom!
Glory to all who work for our victory!
Eternal memory to all who gave their lives for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments regarding the situations in Bakhmut and the Crimean Peninsula:
BAKHMUT AXIS/1345 UTC 29 NOV/ Yesterday, UKR sources reported that Bakhmut and adjacent areas came under RU air strikes. On 29 NOV, UKR air defenses are confirmed to have downed a Su-24 strike fighter & a Su-25 ground attack aircraft across all axes of contact. RU forces stalled. pic.twitter.com/216ijzo9zp
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 29, 2022
HANGING BY 3 THREADS: The keys to the control of Crimea’s logistical, fuel and food supplies are the highly vulnerable Kerch Straits Bridge, and the occupied city of Melitopol. The liberation of Melitopol would cut off Crimea from reinforcement and supply from the UKR mainland. pic.twitter.com/1yHKbQ89Tp
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 29, 2022
Speaking of Bakhmut:
Despite loud noises made by Russian media, Wagner admits they are far from taking Bakhmut. But they also seem oddly proud of essentially being on a suicide mission, "not taking losses into account", except that it's the lives of untrained convicts they really talk about. pic.twitter.com/N5GoBL7VUc
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 29, 2022
If you’re wondering how the training for the conscripts/mobiks is going:
Captured Russian serviceman, presumably mobilised, who was training in the Donetsk Oblast, tells why his training didn't finish. pic.twitter.com/PSV61PgDQJ
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 29, 2022
Ordinarily I’d type “Obligatory!” and post the NAFO I Can Give You HIMARS video here, but this guy is seriously fucked up despite surviving. There’s a reason we used to call this shell shock.
The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko brings us video of a multiple HIMARS launch:
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 29, 2022
Vive la France!
The 4th brother in the Long Hand family, LRU from 🇨🇵, has arrived in 🇺🇦!#UAarmy now is even more powerful for deterring&destroying the enemy.
That is a visible result of friendship between @ZelenskyyUa and @EmmanuelMacron
Thank you to @SebLecornu, the government & people of 🇨🇵! pic.twitter.com/ENcsiOYJw9— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) November 29, 2022
And Germany too!
Meet the Ukrainian MARS II provided to us by Germany.
Nightmare of russian invaders. pic.twitter.com/w9gcisHCLj— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 29, 2022
Make it hot!
Their fearlessness is fierce. pic.twitter.com/gRJS7ObQAa
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 29, 2022
Last night, shortly after I hit publish, I came across Reuters reporting regarding the US considering sending Ukraine a new long range munition:
WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) – The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms.
U.S. and allied military inventories are shrinking, and Ukraine faces an increasing need for more sophisticated weapons as the war drags on. Boeing’s proposed system, dubbed Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), is one of about a half-dozen plans for getting new munitions into production for Ukraine and America’s Eastern European allies, industry sources said.
Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB’s 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.
GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.
Doug Bush, the U.S. Army’s chief weapons buyer, told reporters at the Pentagon last week the Army was also looking at accelerating production of 155 millimeter artillery shells – currently only manufactured at government facilities – by allowing defense contractors to build them.
This afternoon Carlo sent me the link to The Drive‘s The War Room‘s reporting on the same topic:
Ukraine’s next long-range precision strike weapon could be the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb, or GLSDB, with the Pentagon now apparently considering a Boeing proposal to supply Kyiv with the munition. The recently developed GLSDB, an adaptation of the widely used air-launched Small Diameter Bomb, or SDB, has not previously found a customer but would provide a significant boost to Ukraine’s capacity to strike in Russian rear areas.
The Reuters agency reported today that the U.S. Department of Defense is weighing up transferring an undisclosed number of GLSDBs to Ukraine, to meet that country’s insatiable demand for weapons, especially those that can reach targets far behind Russian lines with great precision. They have a unique ability to undermine Moscow’s ability to sustain its invasion.
According to the same report, if approved, the first GLSDBs could be delivered to Ukraine as early as spring 2023. That would mean the weapons would likely be available for a renewed spring offensive — or counter-offensive — depending on how the battle lines change over the critical winter months.
Developed by Boeing in partnership with Saab of Sweden, each GLSDB round is a combination of two existing systems, the air-launched 250-pound GBU-39/B SDB with its pop-out wing set and the rocket motor from the 227mm-caliber M26 artillery rocket. The M26 is among the rocket types that can be fired from M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), and variants thereof, and the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). HIMARS is famously already in use with Ukraine, as are its tracked stablemate that fires the same ammunition, the M270 MLRS.
Propelled by the M26 rocket motor for the initial boost/loft phase, the GLSDB’s wings are then deployed and it flies unpowered, as a glide bomb. It uses the GBU-39/B’s existing inertial navigation system and embedded GPS to guide it to its target. That guidance system not only ensures accuracy to within 3 feet, according to Saab, but is also resilient to electronic warfare jamming, something that is of particular concern in the Ukrainian conflict.
The GLSDB has also been offered with the Laser SDB, which adds a laser seeker to the guidance package, allowing moving targets, including maritime ones, to be engaged. However, with the SDB II, or GBU-53/B StormBreaker already on the horizon, the Laser SDB has apparently seen only limited production, and it’s less likely to be available for supply to Ukraine.
While the air-launched SDB was already developed with low collateral damage in mind, the ground-based GLSDB application is said to deliver enough firepower to destroy a range of targets, from soft-skinned vehicles all the way up to hardened bunkers. The combined penetrating and blast-and-fragmentation warhead is triggered by a programmable electronic fuze. This means the weapon can be set to detonate above the ground or with a delay for deep penetration. There is also a dedicated low-collateral damage variant of the SDB, too, but like the LSDB, there are probably fewer of those in inventory to rapidly transfer.
Unlike most artillery rockets and ballistic missiles, the GLSDB doesn’t follow a ballistic path, meaning it can engage targets from a variety of angles and trajectories. In its promotional literature, Saab boasts of GLSDB being “launchable from hidden or protected positions to avoid detection,” making it less susceptible to counter-battery fire.
Here’s a couple of video that were embedded in The Drive‘s article:
That bunker is never going to threaten another person ever again!
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
War for Ukraine Day 279: Waiting Is the Hardest PartPost + Comments (4)
