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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

How stupid are these people?

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

The willow is too close to the house.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

If you’re gonna whine, it’s time to resign!

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

So fucking stupid, and still doing a tremendous amount of damage.

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Every Single One

by WaterGirl|  February 26, 20262:05 pm| 79 Comments

This post is in: Breathtaking Corruption, Breathtaking Criminality and Lawlessness, Open Threads, Politics

Yesterday SFAW quoted something they had originally seen on LGM.

It struck me as the absolute truth, and since I have an electrician here today and no time to put together another post, I figure this is the perfect time to share this more widely.

Adding to my befuddlement is the fact that he’s every single stereotype of a loathsome shitheel from the last one hundred years of popular culture, all at once—the ignorant blowhard at the end of the bar, the entitled silver spoon trust fund asshole, the clueless boss who does nothing but create crises for his employees to clean up, the lecherous old man, the vapid self-important celebrity, the penny pinching miser who stiffs the honest working man, the oily corrupt politician, the cowardly bully, the draft-dodging faux-patriot, the scumbag crook who gets off on a technicality. He’s almost literally every repugnant trope from generations of literature, movies, and TV shows.

I dare you to find one thing in there that doesn’t ring true.

If anyone knows the original commenter from LGM, I would be pleased to credit them.

Open thread.

Every Single OnePost + Comments (79)

Thursday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  February 26, 20266:55 am| 284 Comments

This post is in: Music, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Bold strategy to cut this kind of advertisement for the Democrats.
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— Malaclypse the Middle (@malaclypse.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 7:39 AM

Warnock: "We heard tonight the rumblings of a desperate man who's trying to present case he can for the midterms. It was half lies, half grievances. He knows he is quickly losing power."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) February 24, 2026 at 11:45 PM

You know who kept Iran from getting nuclear weapons? Obama. Trump ripped up that deal and walked away, and here we are today. He’s desperately trying to come up with a way to solve a problem that he created out of thin air.
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— VoteVets (@votevets.org) February 24, 2026 at 10:50 PM

“Children should be enjoying life. Not thinking about deportation.”
Listen to Dr. Gabeau’s story.
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— Elizabeth Warren (@warren.senate.gov) February 25, 2026 at 9:54 AM

Speaker Emerita Pelosi: Trump took a half a trillion dollars out of Medicare and $1 trillion out of Medicaid. He talked about how many people he took off of SNAP, and the Republicans just stood up and cheered. All of that to give a tax cut to the richest people in America.

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— FactPost (@factpostnews.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 11:43 PM

The president doesn’t give a flip about Medicaid fraud.
In June, Trump commuted Lawrence Duran’s 50 year sentence for filing over 860,000 fraudulent Medicaid claims worth about $200 million.
He had commuted one of Duran’s co-conspirators’ sentences in his first term.
share.google/iShrzItOsCas…

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— Joe Ura (@joeura.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 6:18 PM

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Look, do we really need meat inspectors?

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— Malaclypse the Middle (@malaclypse.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM

America deserves a refund from Trump’s illegal tariffs.

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— Rep. Jim McGovern (@repmcgovern.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 1:47 PM

Dropkick Murphys’ free concert at the Alex Pretti memorial will stream online. More: https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-lifestyle/dropkick-murphys-free-concert-at-the-alex-pretti-memorial-will-stream-online

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— Bring Me The News (@bringmethenews.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 5:34 PM

they’re gonna be burning hillbilly effigies of your ass in the streets by spring

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) February 25, 2026 at 5:30 PM

In my opinion, the best speech tonight was by my senator, Alex Padilla. It was the Spanish response to the #SOTU & it was absolutely compelling.
Por favor, mire y comparta esta fabulosa respuesta en español del senador Alex Padilla al discurso sobre el estado de la Unión.
youtu.be/uiO-mPWsy3Q?…

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— Malena-PRO-CHOICE ?? ????Fighting Tyranny! (@malena.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 2:52 AM

This is not how the Security Council works. Our unaccomplished, inarticulate, unqualified Third Lady has no business there and it’s an insult to the world to send her.

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— Helen Kennedy (@helenkennedy.com) February 25, 2026 at 8:30 PM

Thursday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (284)

On The Road – Beckya57 – Baja Blast

by WaterGirl|  February 26, 20265:00 am| 10 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

Beckya57

These are from my recent trip to Baja California Sur, to snorkel, kayak and whale-watch.

On The Road - Beckya57 - Baja Blast 9
Balandra BeachFebruary 6, 2026

The famous/notorious Mushroom Rock!

On The Road – Beckya57 – Baja BlastPost + Comments (10)

Late Night Open Thread: Tuesday Night’s Publicly Financed Campaign Rally

by Anne Laurie|  February 26, 20264:02 am| 24 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Trumpery

DNC apparently had a very good fundraising night

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— #1 Nate Blouin for Congress Stan (@purrtah.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:33 AM

The State of the Union: the president is a corrupt demented sex criminal who tried to overthrow the constitution.

— Max Berger (@maxberger.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 7:19 PM

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— / MOSA / (@mosaisms.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 9:53 PM

You know who's violent deaths WON'T be mentioned in Trump's long, rambling SoTU speech?
Keith Porter, Ruben Ray Martinez, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti.

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 10:27 PM

So I'm picking up the cadence of this SOTU–speechwriters know that the Clown Who Dreaded Sundown can't maintain coherency for more than a few minutes at a go, so he's given several scripted lines and then is allowed whiff around for applause.

— K.B. Spangler (@kbspangler.com) February 24, 2026 at 9:31 PM

Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends: My thoughts on the SOTU
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

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— Tom Nichols (@radiofreetom.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:57 AM


Gift link:

The longest State of the Union in modern history is now over. Donald Trump held court in the House of Representatives and said little of substance, but substance wasn’t the point. This year, he intended to put on a show, with an array of guest stars and special appearances. He was happy because he was playing the roles he clearly loves: game-show host, ringmaster, emcee, beneficent granter of wishes—and, where the Democrats were concerned, a self-righteous inquisitor…

President Ronald Reagan, the “Great Communicator,” once managed to do the entire State of the Union address in 31 minutes; that’s because he could say important things efficiently and well. Tonight, however, was not about communication—it was about showmanship. Almost every line was a cue for applause from obedient Republicans; they even gave Jared Kushner a standing ovation. Every few minutes, Trump told a story and reached out into the audience like the host of The Price Is Right, telling people to come on down….

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Trump even had designated heels in the audience: the Democrats. He called them crazy and accused them of impoverishing the nation. He dared them to stand up if they agreed with him that “the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” This stunt was obviously meant to force Democrats either to stand or boo or otherwise do something that Trump could exploit; instead, it merely resulted in several awkward seconds of a staring contest between the president and the Democrats in the chamber. Trump managed to bait Representative Ilhan Omar into shouting at him, but for the most part, he seemed genuinely irritated that the Democrats sat through his show in stony silence.

As the whole business dragged on, the atmosphere started to seem less like a game show and more like the late-night Jerry Lewis telethons of the 1970s, in which a tired but pumped Lewis alternately griped at the audience, broke into maudlin emotion, or jumped up to welcome a new guest. The only thing Trump did not do was explain his policies—especially about war and peace—to Congress or the American people…

But if some of the address was a game show, much of it was a bloody Grand Guignol theater of horror stories, almost all about immigrants preying on the helpless and the innocent. Trump led into these anecdotes by starting with an accusation that the Somali community of Minnesota was scamming the state. He followed up with stories of murder and mayhem, including the tale of a tractor trailer driven by someone in the country illegally—“let in by Joe Biden”—who hit a little girl. She and her father were, of course, in the audience…

… Trump tonight went far beyond what even the most self-indulgent presidents would have envisioned. Beset by scandal, facing multiple defeats in America’s courts, and hitting levels of unpopularity that would make President Richard Nixon nod with empathy, he turned the State of the Union into a vulgar, populist carnival.

Trump made a great show of honoring a handful of U.S. military heroes. Meanwhile, thousands of young men and women are a world away, waiting for his orders to go to war. The president of the United States might have taken a moment tonight to tell their families why they’re out there, and what they’re supposed to do. But why bother? The show must go on.

every single picture of trump I've seen has him holding onto the podium for dear life.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 10:27 PM

When I heard this, I drafted a skeet about it, then thought "naaah, there's no way his speechwriters would allow him to contradict himself within one sentence." But they really and truly did.

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— Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 9:35 PM

"We must reject political violence of any kind," says Trump, who pardoned hundreds of violent rioters who participated in the Jan. 6 insurrection that he inspired.

— Adam Klasfeld (@klasfeldreports.com) February 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM

Like… the White House?

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— Jon Cryer (@mrjoncryer.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 10:21 PM

Its pretty remarkable how different Trump sounded at the beginning of his speech – like even he didn't believe the lies he was telling – and and later in his speech when he got excited while spewing racism and describing violent murders in graphic detail.

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— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 11:50 PM

I’m getting a little sick of saying this, but I think it’s worth repeating, that this speech sounds no different than your average white nationalist website.

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— hannah gais (@hannahgais.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 10:02 PM

If anybody is waiting to tune in to see if he was going to slip in a hard R, we're closer now than ever

— K.B. Spangler (@kbspangler.com) February 24, 2026 at 10:03 PM

Trump: Every Democrat voted against my massive tax cuts for the rich and corporations
Democrats: *applause*

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— Headquarters (@headquartersnews.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 9:49 PM

Its like lifting your wallet if you were a poor person trying to buy food

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— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 9:33 PM

Richmond County’s own Nicole Malliotakis giving off the same energy as one of the white people protesting southern school integration in photos from the 50s

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— The Toronto Ben Jays ?????? (@benjayingly.com) February 24, 2026 at 9:28 PM

The most racist part of Trump's SoTU address receives the longest sustained applause by his fellow fascists on the GOP side of the House chamber.
And then Trump tells Democrats they should be ashamed of themselves for not standing up to endorse his racist policy.

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 10:08 PM

Srsly, name one president since the inception of the MOH in the 1860s who survives telling *all of Congress* and the nation that he’s upset that he can’t give the Medal of Honor TO HIMSELF

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— Phillip Anderson (@phillipanderson.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 11:11 PM

Rachel Maddow's observations… wow…

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— Fiona "Fi" Webster ?????? (@fiona-webster22.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:06 AM

Vance's face OH MY GOD LMAO

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 9:19 PM

Trump's speech was under two hours, which bolsters the thesis that the leaks about it being more than two hours were meant to work the prediction markets

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) February 24, 2026 at 11:01 PM

Late Night Open Thread: Tuesday Night’s Publicly Financed Campaign RallyPost + Comments (24)

War for Ukraine Day 1,462: Year 5

by Adam L Silverman|  February 25, 202610:56 pm| 11 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A black and white cartoon of Popeye's face/head. He is facing to the viewer's left. His right eye is squinted shut and his pipe is sticking out of the right side of his mouth. The speech bubble reads "I yam disgustipated".

I’m fried and am going to just do a quick run through the basics.

All of eastern and almost all of central Ukraine is under air raid alert for drone swarms and ballistic missiles as of about 4:45 AM local time/9:45 PM EST.

Russia is attacking Ukraine with drones and ballistic missiles right now ‼️
Cruise missiles are expected soon.

4:40

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:39 PM

All of Ukraine but Odesa Oblast are now under air raid alert for drone swarms and missiles at 5:40 AM local time/10:40 PM EST

Your semi regular reminder that I invaded Ukraine specifically to prevent them from acquiring long range weapons to hit Russia with.

I remain a master strategist.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM

It also ruins the reflexive statement we train tankies to make that Ukraine lacked the skills to make the entire nuclear firing chain they had in the 1990s work and explains why US nuclear weapon engineers believed they’d need 90 days to make it work, hence the threat I sanctions made.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM

President Zelenskyy held a phone call with Trump today.

After speaking with Trump, Zelenskyy said that the next meeting of the delegations of Ukraine, Russia, and the United States will take place in early March.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 2:55 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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The EU Will Participate in Restoring Ukraine’s Energy Sector and Upgrading Its Protection – Address by the President

25 February 2026 – 20:11

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

It’s been an active day. The Prime Minister of Norway visited Ukraine. Thank you, Jonas! Norway provides a lot of support and is one of our largest partners. Air defense for Ukraine, contributions to the PURL initiative enabling us to purchase American missiles for the Patriots, military aid packages, and energy support. Norway helped us get through this winter. Overall, we’ve reached the highest level of relations with all the countries of Northern Europe. It’s one of the most productive formats – NB8: the Nordic countries plus the Baltic States.

Just yesterday, we held a corresponding summit here in Kyiv. Leaders came to Ukraine to support us, and new aid packages have been announced right now. Sweden provides a military assistance package worth USD 1.5 billion. Norway adds almost USD 1.2 billion for our joint drone production. And we already effectively have strategic relations with Norway, and we agreed to formalize this through a corresponding agreement. Denmark is providing a support package for the energy and humanitarian sectors, which will support people and life in communities right now. Additional decisions on support have been made by Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. And altogether, the NB8 countries – the Nordics and the Baltics – will allocate over EUR 12 billion to support Ukraine this year, including around EUR 1 billion for energy support. This is extremely important for us – for Ukraine. Every decision, every meeting, and our summits strengthen Ukraine’s confidence and increase our ability to protect lives.

I also want to once again highlight our joint work with the European Union. Yesterday, we discussed important issues with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and António Costa, President of the European Council. First, the EU will participate in restoring Ukraine’s energy sector and upgrading its protection. We discussed this in detail, and the government officials are already preparing a corresponding strategy for reconstruction and protection for the next winter. The task is to present the details by March 1, and the strategy will be approved at the national level, so that every community and every region clearly understands the priorities. Ursula will help us implement this. Thank you!

We also had substantive discussions on the new EU sanctions package – the 20th package. We expect the sanctions pressure on Russia over this war to continue and to remain effective. I thank the United Kingdom for the new sanctions – the largest since 2022. Australia has also presented a new sanctions package, along with New Zealand and Canada. Canada has also provided a support package. There are new support decisions from Croatia as well.

All of this – in these very days, right now – clearly demonstrates that our partners stand with us, with Ukraine. In March, we will continue active diplomatic efforts – a lot is already planned. We will continue to strengthen Ukraine. And this day is not over yet – there will be further negotiations.

And one more thing.

I received reports from the Security Service of Ukraine: I tasked Yevhenii Khmara and Oleksandr Poklad with working to cleanse the Service of those whose interests are not aligned with Ukraine at all. Results have already been achieved. Today, corresponding detentions took place, and it is very important that fair verdicts follow. Everyone in public office must work for Ukraine and for the sake of Ukraine. There will be no other option.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also held a joint press conference with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.

We Will Work Toward a Strategic Partnership Between Our Countries – President of Ukraine Following a Meeting with the Prime Minister of Norway

25 February 2026 – 15:20

Ukraine and Norway will work toward a strategic partnership. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced this following a meeting with Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre.

The Head of State thanked Norway for all its support and particularly highlighted energy assistance. Such cooperation helps Ukraine get through every winter that Russia tries to turn into a weapon. Norway is also one of the largest investors in the PURL initiative: total contributions have already reached $970 million.

“We also greatly appreciate every military package provided by the Norwegians. The long-term nature and predictability of Norway’s support, your annual financial support packages, greatly help with defense planning in this terrible war and all our actions,” the President said.

During the meeting, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Jonas Gahr Støre discussed continuing joint work and moving toward a strategic partnership. They also discussed future joint energy projects that could strengthen both countries. The energy ministers will remain in contact and prepare a relevant agreement on energy cooperation.

“I would also like to highlight our cooperation in weapons production. We greatly value that Norway provided Ukraine with NASAMS – I repeat this every time. We are very grateful for this. We expect our relations to reach a level that will allow us to jointly produce weapons,” the Head of State noted.

The President briefed on the situation at the front and air defense needs. The leaders also discussed diplomatic efforts. Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that preparations for new trilateral-format meetings are ongoing, and Ukraine will coordinate substantively with Europe.

The Head of State also thanked Norway for supporting sanctions efforts and highlighted the NB8 format (the Nordic and Baltic countries), which has become one of the most effective platforms for coordination and joint work.

The Prime Minister of Norway assured his country will continue to support Ukraine, including in drone production. According to him, total assistance for 2026 will amount to about $8 billion.

“We support your efforts, the efforts of your diplomats, to reach an agreement that you will be able to defend as a democratic state, and you can count on us standing with you,” Jonas Gahr Støre said.

First Lady Zelenska delivered a video address to the participants of the international conference “Bring Kids Back UA: Bringing Ukrainian Children Home.”

Olena Zelenska Called on the World to Help Rescue and Return Children Abducted by Russia at the International Conference “Bring Kids Back UA: Bringing Ukrainian Children Home”

25 February 2026 – 20:42

The First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, delivered a video address to the participants of the international conference “Bring Kids Back UA: Bringing Ukrainian Children Home,” held in Portugal.

“A lost child is probably every mother’s nightmare. Not knowing whether your child is safe – that uncertainty is terrifying. It is also the fear of nearly every child: to be lost, not knowing when you will see your mother or someone close to you again, not having by your side people you trust. For nearly 20,000 young Ukrainians abducted by Russia, being taken from their homeland is not simply a change of residence. For them, it is almost always isolation, pressure, and systematic attempts to reshape their identity and worldview,” the First Lady emphasized.

The President’s wife spoke about the removal of entire orphanages and children without parental care by Russian forces, about children being taken from their families in temporarily occupied territories, about forced placement in militarized camps in Russia, and about the alteration of children’s personal data, making it impossible to trace them in electronic systems.

“It is horrifying when our children are traded. And that is exactly what the Russians are doing – sorting them for adoption. Russian officials simply arrive at shelters and choose those they like best, as if selecting live merchandise. And the abductors are preparing no less terrifying things for older boys once they reach adulthood. They are conscripted into the Russian army and forced to fight against their own homeland,” Olena Zelenska said.

During a separate panel, children who were returned home thanks to the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children and the Ukrainian President’s Bring Kids Back UA initiative shared their experiences. The conversation was moderated by Advisor – Commissioner of the President for Children’s Rights and Child Rehabilitation, Daria Herasymchuk.

“I am grateful to every partner helping us bring the children home. These are individuals, organizations, and entire countries. Thanks to our joint efforts, 2,000 children are already back home. But the majority remain in Russia. I truly hope that today’s meeting is another step toward their rescue and return,” the President’s wife concluded.

Georgia:

OTD in 1921 the Red Army completed its occupation of Georgia after invading a few weeks before. We had signed a treaty less than a year earlier saying we would never invade.

Over a century later, we maintain the tradition of using a peace treaty as a sign that we will invade.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 2:52 AM

Georgians are marching today to mark the day of the Soviet occupation of Georgia in 1921, when the Red Army invaded and ended the country’s short-lived independence.

20% of Georgia is still occupied by Russia.

Day 455 of daily, uninterrupted, nationwide protests in Georgia. 🇬🇪

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 11:40 AM

Loved my friend and colleague Anna Chikovani’s photo from today’s protest commemorating 105 years since the Soviet Russian occupation of Georgia.

Her expression is so firm, determined, concerned and calm at the same time.

Day 455 of #GeorgiaProtests

📷 MOSE

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 2:44 PM

The Georgian national anthem echoes in front of Parliament.

Day 455 of daily, uninterrupted protests.

105 years ago today, Soviet Russia invaded and occupied Georgia.

Today, 20% of the country remains under Russian occupation. The rest is ruled by a Russia-aligned, illegitimate regime.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:18 PM

Today’s the Soviet Occupation Day in Georgia.

Which is completely brushed under the rug by the Georgian Dream, of course.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:52 AM

The UN:

Russia’s representative to the United Nations, Nebenzya, tried to argue that Russians and Ukrainians are one people and that his lineage traces back to the Zaporizhzhian Cossacks. He even claimed that his parents were “more genuinely Ukrainian” than Ukraine’s representatives at the UN.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:45 AM

Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Mariana Betsa, firmly put the Russian representative in his place.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:45 AM

The EU:

Plans to deploy peacekeeping troops on the ground in Ukraine will require Vladimir Putin’s approval, allies have conceded. – The Telegraph

If this is true… wow. Coalition of the spineless.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:26 AM

Then there will be no peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Also, I’m not sure the EU and its member states really grasp the reality they exist in and have what it takes to survive that reality.

Poland:

Camp Jomsborg was established in 2025 as part of Operation “Legion,” a multinational operation led by Norway to train, equip, and finance the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=XtD9…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:33 PM

At this camp in southeastern Poland, Ukrainian forces are trained to fight and survive on the battlefield under the guidance of NATO allies.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:33 PM

Britain:

The Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom announced that the first Ukrainian defense plant has begun operating in the UK. It is a production facility of the company Ukrspecsystems, which specializes in the manufacturing of drones.
www.facebook.com/vzaluzhnyi/p…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:18 PM

The US:

This! 👇💯

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 2:48 PM

Trump does not understand what Putin truly wants: his strategy is built on the illusion that the Kremlin would settle for territorial concessions and Ukraine’s neutrality. In reality Putin seeks full control over Ukraine, its political life, future, and choices.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 2:52 PM

Vance on Ukraine: “I’m sure that Vladimir Putin has his military objectives and obviously he hasn’t stopped the killing, even though the president wants that very much to happen, but the way to solve this is to continue to engage in diplomacy.”

The way to stop the killing was.. to stop the killing.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 11:56 AM

Ukraine agreed to an unconditional ceasefire you proposed almost a year ago, but russia did not. And you simply went with their refusal without any pressure.

Your version of ‘diplomacy’ is pressuring Ukraine while allowing russia to continue the killings.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 11:56 AM

Trump is an ignoramus who has no idea what the actual causes of the war are, why Putin began his genocidal re-invasion, nor what Putin really wants to achieve with his genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine.

I’d like the war to end tomorrow. Unfortunately, wanting isn’t enough. Trump has the instruments to end it.

Push the russian economy over the edge by tightening sanctions and seizing the shadow fleet, arm Ukraine, and provide strong security guarantees.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 5:53 PM

There is no way, even if everything were to go right at the negotiating table, which is impossible because Trump, Witkoff, and Jared have rigged it for Putin, that the war could end in a month.

Back to Ukraine:

Browder: Putin is not going to seek an endgame for one reason: he needs a war, a foreign enemy, so that people don’t get mad at him inside Russia.

This war is now only about Putin’s personal survival. He needs the war to stay in power, and he needs to stay in power to survive.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 10:56 AM

I published a new Missile Matters post earlier today, discussing Ukraine’s recent deep strike against the Votkinsk missile plant and its implications for the missile supply chain.

You can access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/flamingo-f…

Short summary below

1/7

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— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:33 PM

From Missile Matters:

On the night of 20 to 21 February, Ukraine launched several FP-5 Flamingo land-attack cruise missiles into Russia. At least one missile is confirmed to have struck the Votkinsk missile plant, a state-owned defense enterprise and one of Russia’s most important missile factories, located roughly 1,400 kilometers inside Russia from Ukraine and about 300 kilometers east of Kazan.

Ukraine has targeted Russia’s missile and long-range drone industry before, notably the Yelabuga drone production facility, using long-range drones, which appear to have caused only limited damage, however, due to the relatively low warhead yield of the systems employed. Ukraine has achieved greater success targeting parts of the missile and drone supply chain, particularly chemical precursor materials used to produce explosives and solid fuels.

The attack on Friday night marks the first time that Ukraine has successfully struck a core target of Russia’s missile industry directly using a heavy missile capability. Satellite imagery suggests the strike caused major damage to at least one building, although the precise extent of the destruction cannot be verified at this stage.

This post discusses the implications of the attack, what it means for the Flamingo missile, and explores the potential for future Ukrainian counter-industry operations using deep strike weapons.

Votkinsk missile plant

The Votkinsk Machine Building Plant primarily serves as a final assembly and component-manufacturing site for solid-fuel ballistic missiles. Production covers strategic intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and theater ballistic missile systems, as well as major subcomponents such as rocket motors and airframes.

In the strategic missile domain, the facility is the main producer of the RS-24 Yars ICBM and the RSM-56 Bulava SLBM. The site is also likely a primary production facility for the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile.

For theater-range ballistic missiles, the facility is the principal production site for 9M723 short-range ballistic missiles used by the Iskander-M system. Some reporting also links the plant to the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, where it is likely involved at the component manufacturing level.

Russian missile supply chain disruption

The Votkinsk facility is an industrial campus comprising dozens of production buildings and laboratories. Open-source reporting indicates that Workshop 19 was struck during the attack, creating a hole of roughly 30 by 24 meters in the roof. The building reportedly houses a galvanizing and metal-forming shop that performs electroplating, stamping, and surface treatment of structural components prior to final assembly. Its role lies upstream in the production chain, preparing airframe sections, fasteners, and possibly electronic housings used across several missile programs.

Even limited damage could therefore slow multiple assembly lines at once if relevant components become unavailable for an extended period. The short-term impact, however, depends on existing stockpiles or the availability of alternative subcontractors. Given that Russian missile plants appear to operate continuously in three shifts (indicated also by the reported casualties during the night attack), it is plausible that substantial inventories of upstream components exist within the supply chain.

The medium- to long-term impact will depend on how quickly equipment that could have been destroyed can be replaced, including chemical bath systems, wastewater treatment and filtration units, stamping presses, CNC machines, and industrial ventilation infrastructure, among others, as well as how rapidly production lines can be recertified. Russia may be able to replace some equipment domestically, but for certain critical systems, it remains dependent on foreign suppliers, with China likely serving as the primary fallback.

Flamingo lethality

The extent of damage depends on how much machinery was ultimately affected. The Flamingo cruise missile is known to be equipped with a 1,150-kilogram payload, likely carrying TNT equivalent explosives on the order of roughly 600 kilograms.

Assuming that 10 pounds per square inch (psi) of overpressure is required to mechanically destroy equipment in the workshop, the warhead would have a lethal radius of about 30 meters. If 5 psi is considered sufficient to render equipment nonfunctional, the lethal radius could extend to around 35 meters. Lighter damage to machinery may have occurred at distances of up to 55 meters, while beyond that, blast effects are likely negligible, at least for heavier equipment. Given that the building spans roughly 130 meters in length and 55 meters in width, and depending on how the machinery is distributed inside, blast damage is likely to have been localized rather than affecting equipment throughout the entire structure.

Critically, video footage from the night of the attack shows large smoke plumes rising from the building, supporting unconfirmed reports that a fire broke out in the workshop after the strike. Traces of fire damage are also visible in satellite imagery taken afterward. If a fire did occur, and depending on how long it burned, large sections or even the entire building may have been lost.

Given the substantial fuel capacity of the Flamingo, which, according to the manufacturer, enables a range of up to 3,000 kilometers, and considering that the plant lies only about half that distance from potential launch areas, it is possible that significant unburned fuel was dispersed and ignited upon impact, increasing the likelihood of a fire.

Much more at the link.

So, Denys “Redis” Prokopenko, commander of the 1st Army Corps “Azov” and a distinguished hero of the Battle of Mariupol, was promoted to the rank of brigadier general today.

He is only 34 years old.

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 2:40 PM

I reckon he’s now the youngest Ukrainian general and one of the world’s youngest top-ranking military officers (please correct me if I’m wrong).

— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 2:40 PM

This is correct. The youngest someone would make brigadier general or rear admiral lower half in the US military, or any military, would be around 50 at the earliest. And that would be if they were hard chargers who hit every promotion below the zone (ahead of the normal promotion window for their year group cohort).

Episodes of ground drones engaging directly in firefights with infantry are becoming increasingly frequent. In this instance, an unmanned ground vehicle armed with a machine gun eliminates two Russian infantrymen with gunfire. Footage by the 32nd Mechanized Brigade.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 11:12 AM

“1,700 citizens from 36 African countries are fighting in the Russian army against Ukraine.” – Andrii Sybiha, head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

Russia is actively recruiting residents of African countries to take part in the war, using various recruitment schemes.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 8:37 AM

Kharkiv:

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ our city is under russian missile attack right now ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 8:56 PM

More explosions in Kharkiv ‼️
Russia still sucks.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:57 PM

❗️For the first time, russia deployed a fiber-optic FPV drone in an attack on Kharkiv.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 3:28 PM

Zaporizhzhia:

An apartment building is on fire in Zaporizhzhia after russian attack ‼️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 10:01 PM

Epicenter mall is on fire in Zaporizhzhia after russian attack ‼️

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:34 PM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

In Zaporizhzhia region four were killed, abd a got child injured in russian airstrikes

On the evening of February 24, around 10 p.m., russian forces carried out airstrikes on a village in the Zaporizhzhia district

At one address, a residential house was destroyed.Rescuers recovered the bodies of 3

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 7:57 AM

people from the rubble.

At another location, a two‑story residential building was damaged. Emergency crews pulled one more body from the debris, and a child was injured.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 7:57 AM

Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

The special unit “Artan” of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine carried out a successful offensive near Stepnohirsk on the Zaporizhzhia axis.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 10:18 AM

A key part of the special operation was cutting off critical Russian logistical arteries, preventing further assault operations in this direction.
t.me/c/2076048905…

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 10:18 AM

Sumy Oblast:

Today, russia once again killed a rescuer‼️

In the Sumy region, within the Velyka Pysarivka community, an enemy FPV drone struck a car, killing Pavlo Kolisnyk — a firefighter‑rescuer.

He was returning home from shift when the russian drone hit his vehicle.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 8:03 AM

Pavlo was on his way back after service to which he had devoted nearly his entire life, beginning in 1997.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 8:03 AM

Kyiv:

Echoes of distant explosions in Kyiv: The Ukrainian capital just came under attack by 3 Russian ballistic missiles, and about a dozen attack drones are incoming. 5 Russian strategic bombers are now airborne, and cruise missiles (if launched) are expected in 🇺🇦 airspace at 0600.

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:06 PM

Lots more distant explosions audible here in western Kyiv – reports of more ballistic launches at Ukrainian capital. Possible shoot-downs. Shahed attack drones still incoming.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:14 PM

Earlier there were reports of 2 Russian Zircon anti-ship missiles passing over Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Cherkasy regions in the direction of Kyiv – I might have heard them being shot down in the distance.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 9:21 PM

Russian occupied Crimea:

💥On the night of February 25, 2026, the Special Operations Forces struck with FP-1/FP-2 guided strike drones Russian air defense positions in Crimea.

As a result: S-400 launcher, a 92N6E radar station of the S-400, additional supporting components of the S-400 and a Pantsir-S1 were eliminated.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 5:15 AM

Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Russian forces struck a dam with a FAB-3000 aerial bomb near Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region. The aim of the attack is to disrupt logistics, and such devastating strikes could also lead to flooding.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 12:46 PM

Russia:

Putin is making Russia small again:

”Our model suggests that Russian casualties are now between 1.1m and 1.4m, of whom 230,000-430,000 are dead. That would mean one in 25 Russian men between the ages of 18 and 49 may have been killed or severely wounded since the start of the full-scale war.”

[image or embed]

— Minna Ålander 🌻 (@alanderminna.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 11:23 AM

The Udmurt Republic, Russia:

Footage of a Ukrainian “Flamingo” strike on the Iskander plant in Votkinsk, Russia.🦩🔥

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 8:09 AM

Smolensk Oblast, Russia:

Tonight, in the Smolensk Oblast of the Russia, the chemical enterprise “Dorogobuzh” was attacked. It is a major Russian industrial enterprise that is part of the Acron Group.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 4:45 AM

The company’s main activity is the production of chemical products used by the Russian military-industrial complex.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 25, 2026 at 4:45 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

1/2 💙💛 Today marks 4 years since the invasion of Ukraine began.
Despite immense hardship, animal rescuers continue to show extraordinary courage, from frontline evacuations to caring for homeless cats & dogs & finding them families.
🐾 Their work goes on & so will our support.
#EasternEuroAnimals

[image or embed]

— Naturewatch Foundation (@naturewatch.org) February 24, 2026 at 7:05 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,462: Year 5Post + Comments (11)

Wednesday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  February 25, 20269:28 pm| 67 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House"

Let’s just cut to the quick. Things that pissed me right off today, starting with this:

Vice President JD Vance announced Wednesday that the Trump administration would “temporarily halt” some Medicaid funding to the state of Minnesota over fraud concerns, as part of what he described as an aggressive crackdown on misuse of public funds.

Vance, who made the announcement with Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said the administration was taking the action “in order to ensure that the state of Minnesota takes its obligations seriously to be good stewards of the American people’s tax money.”

Oz, who referred to people committing fraud as “self-serving scoundrels,” said the federal government would hold off on paying $259.5 million to Minnesota in funding for Medicaid, the health care safety net for low-income Americans.

This is all bullshit, of course. They are doing this because they hate Minnesota and they hate Democrats and they hate the governor and they hate their senators. They have absolutely no legal authority to do this and it will eventually be declared illegal by a judge and then they may or may not give the money, but by then the damage will have been done and they will move on to something else because they are fucking sociopaths.

And even if they did have fraud of that magnitude and DID have the legal authority to do this (they do not), it makes absolutely no sense to take away medicaid to people who have not engaged in fraud- it’s collective punishment for a crime that has not been committed. It’s the Roman principle of decimation on a milder scale. Assholes.

***

I’m still sick of nazis and bootlickers and the quislings all around me:

Representative Ilhan Omar on Wednesday condemned the arrest of a guest she brought to the State of the Union, saying that being charged with a crime for standing up in the gallery during the president’s address “sends a chilling message about the state of our democracy.”

Aliya Rahman, a U.S. citizen who was dragged from her vehicle after an ICE agent shattered its window during President Trump’s immigration crackdown in Minneapolis, attended the president’s speech on Tuesday night at the invitation of Ms. Omar. As Mr. Trump was speaking, Ms. Rahman was seen being escorted from the gallery above the House floor by Capitol Police officers. She could be heard shouting for someone to call Ms. Omar, and that all she had done was stand up.

Ms. Rahman, 43, Ms. Omar and the U.S. Capitol Police said in separate statements that Ms. Rahman had been charged with unlawful conduct by disrupting Congress. The misdemeanor charge is punishable with a fine of up to $500 and up to six months in prison.

If you do not remember who Ms. Rahman is, she was the disabled woman who was pulled from her car by ICE goons on her way to a doctor’s appointment in a widely publicized video. Amerikkka, fuck yeah.

***

I guess that lazy bastard Thomas Frank never figured it out, because there is some evil shit going down in Kansas:

Today, transgender people across Kansas are reporting receiving letters from the Kansas Division of Vehicles stating that they must surrender their driver’s licenses and that their current credentials will be considered invalid upon the law’s publication in the Kansas Register on Thursday. Should any transgender person be caught driving without a valid license, they could face a class B misdemeanor carrying up to six months in jail and a $1,000 fine. Kansas already requires county jails to house inmates according to sex assigned at birth. The letter, obtained by Erin in the Morning, marks one of the most significant erosions of transgender civil rights in the United States to date…

…SB 244, also known as the “bathroom bounty” bill, contained heavy identification document bans as well. The bill was rushed through the Kansas Legislature in January using a “gut and go” procedure that bypassed nearly all public input on its key provisions. Governor Laura Kelly vetoed the bill on February 13, calling it “poorly drafted,” but the Legislature overrode her veto days later. In addition to the driver’s license provisions, the law bans transgender people from using bathrooms matching their gender identity in public buildings and creates a bathroom bounty hunter system allowing citizens to sue transgender people they encounter in restrooms for at least $1,000 in damages, including potentially in private restrooms. The bill takes effect immediately upon publication in the Kansas Register rather than the standard July 1 effective date—giving transgender Kansans just days between the override and the invalidation of their identity documents.

The consequences for noncompliance could escalate quickly. Under Kansas law, driving without a valid license is a class B misdemeanor punishable by up to six months in jail and a $1,000 fine—though first-time offenders are more likely to face a citation and fine. A conviction, however, triggers an automatic 90-day license suspension. If a person drives during that suspension, they face a charge of driving on a suspended license, which carries a mandatory minimum of five days in jail. Kansas already requires county jails to house inmates by sex assigned at birth.

These laws help no one.
These laws will make no one safer.
These laws will not improve one single person’s life.

The sole intent of these laws is legalized cruelty with the potential of throwing them into jails to receive more extrajudicial cruelty in genpop while being “legal.”

Every single person who helped make these laws happen can rot in hell. The arc of the moral universe is too god damned long for me. I want all of these people to be publicly humiliated and run out of polite society.

I honestly don’t care what you think about trans people and I do not give one fuck about the political implications of standing up for trans people, hell, I don’t even care if you dislike them for some stupid fucking reason (that’s on you to sort out, weirdo), but from my personal standpoint if you are not loudly standing up with and for them you are part of the problem. Us means all of us. Never Again means never again for nobody, no one. Never the fuck again.

The end.

***

SO I watched some of the speech last night as you all know and I am a sick person and read it all today and every time I subject myself to this shit at the end I find myself reflecting on George Bush’s reaction to Trump’s first inauguration speech: “that was some weird shit.” Everything about it was just weird and dystopian and felt like Nero greeting the masses and throwing out bouquets and medals and coins to a rowdy populace while goons in the back clubbed any dissenters. And it was all fucking lies. The highlight of the whole thing was, of course, Al Green, who as usual was standing on business:

Wednesday Night Open Thread 32

If you can’t read it, it says “Black People Aren’t Apes,” a reference to the racist video Trump posted what feels like last year but was probably only two weeks ago. And for those of you who poo-poo political stunts like getting thrown out of the SOTU and think it is undignified or merely performative, go check out the 50 thousand news articles covering this event. A wise man once said that “if you don’t like performative politics, you better be out performing the politics.”

At any rate, because I am a glutton for punishment and not at all right in the head, I read a NYT piece where they interviewed seven voters and it was as bad as you would think but I just quit when I got to this:

Wednesday Night Open Thread 33

That is precisely where I tapped out. Eat your heart out, NYTPitchbot/DougJ.

***

That’s it for me. Another beautiful day here- I had a lovely taco salad without tacos with a half a chicken breast I had left and a bunch of fixings over some nice spicy rocket with a jalapeno/cilantro/lime crema I make. I’m watching the Last Thing He Told Me on Apple TV because I thought Judy Greer was in it but I have not seen her yet, but Jennifer Garner is in it and she’s always been pleasant and fun (I loved Alias) and it’s engrossing but not too taxing or threatening, so that’s what we’re watching. Mom and Devon said the book was fun.

Bolo is doing fine, although he still acts a lot like I am a big dangerous scary thing a lot and will bark at me in the mooning and all the way into the house if I leave and come back. Starting to wonder if the dog has whatever Leonard had in Memento.

Peace out.

***

Wednesday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (67)

Interested in a Zoom Book Club to Discuss Tom Levenson’s Book ‘So Very Small’?

by WaterGirl|  February 25, 20268:00 pm| 46 Comments

This post is in: Balloon Juice, Balloon Juice Zooms, Book Clubs, Tom Levenson's So Very Small Book Clu

Interested in a Zoom Book Club to Discuss Tom Levenson’s Book 'So Very Small'?

Hey everybody,

Anybody interested in having a Zoom book club to talk about Tom’s book, So Very Small?

Tom is super flexible, so we can talk about arguments in book and the relevance of the book today and /or we can use the book as a jumping off point for discussion.

It’s looking like we will start in 3-4 weeks, zooming the first two weeks of April, to give you guys time to read the book if you’re interested.

If you’re interested in reading / discussing this book, let us know in the comments!

⭐️  ⭐️  ⭐️

SAVE THE DATES

Wednesdays
April 1 and April 8
April 8 and April 15
8 pm Eastern time

Zooms will start on time and will last 90 minutes.

⭐️  ⭐️  ⭐️

MORE DETAILS

We will raffle off a signed copy of one of Tom’s books – only participants in the zooms will be eligible for that.

If you want to participate but aren’t in a position right now to buy the book, let us know in the comments or send me email.  I’m sure we’ll be able to pair you up with someone to supply a book.

TO RSVP and get the Zoom link

Send email to WaterGirl with your nym & reference Tom or the book in the subject of your message

Interested in a Zoom Book Club to Discuss Tom Levenson’s Book ‘So Very Small’?Post + Comments (46)

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