Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today, we have good news. Another 116 Ukrainians were released from Russian captivity.

Of them, 114 are privates and sergeants, and two are officers. Soldiers of our army, the National Guard, territorial defense, Navy, border guards, and the State Emergency Service.

We are constantly working to bring home all our people held in Russian captivity. And I’m happy every time it succeeds.

I thank our entire team that prepares exchanges, the Coordinating Staff of the Defense Intelligence. Budanov, Usov, Yermak, Klymenko, Maliuk, Lubinets – I thank everyone! Thanks to everyone who helped.

Of course, it is worth mentioning Denys Monastyrsky… He participated in preparing this exchange. And his death is really a big loss for our country.

Since February 24, our team has managed to return totally 1,762 Ukrainian men and women from Russian captivity.

I also thank all those involved in helping these people after their return.

Everyone who treats, restores documents, helps solve problematic issues of those released from captivity. It reflects the basic meaning of what we do. We restore and protect the normality of life for our people in a free country.

I spoke today with Rishi Sunak, Mr. Prime Minister of the UK. A very important conversation. We prepare pivotal things with him.

I thanked the Prime Minister and all the British people for helping our country. Now, in the UK, our guys have already started training on Challenger tanks. It’s a good vehicle. And it will be a big thing on the battlefield.

Together with our partners, we do everything daily to ensure that our soldiers have sufficient strength to defend against the terrorist state.

We also discussed other promising things that can strengthen our defense.

The issue of the threat to the international Olympic movement, which arose due to the weakness of the international sports bureaucracy, due to those who are trying to actually allow Russia to use sports for propaganda, was separately touched upon.

I am glad that the world hears our position that the Olympic principles must be unequivocally protected from the terrorist state.

Today, I signed the relevant documents to take another step to protect and cleanse our state from those on the side of the aggressor.

There is a request from the Security Service regarding persons with records that they have Russian citizenship. Tomorrow, another legal step will be taken to implement the sanctions decisions of the NSDC.

And we are working to synchronize our sanctions decisions with partner jurisdictions. The enemies of the free world have no right to use the free world for their own interests.

And one more thing.

During the 346 days of this war, I often had to say that the situation at the front was tough. And that the situation is getting tougher.

Now is that time again. A time when the occupier throws more and more of its forces to break our defenses. Now, it is very difficult in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, near Lyman, and other directions.

But now, as every day of these 346, the resilience of our soldiers decides everything. Our resilience!

It’s not about the efforts and plans of Russia. It’s about the courage and determination of our soldiers. The effectiveness and speed of all who support and help to support our defense forces. The attentiveness and persuasiveness of all those who defend Ukraine’s international positions. The strength and unity of our people – all those who work for our victory, and all those who support our heroes and the Ukrainian state.

To preserve all elements of our resilience is to guarantee victory.

Glory to all our soldiers! Thanks to everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Another prisoner swap has occurred:

Another large exchange of prisoners took place: 116 Ukrainians returned home, including the defenders of Mariupol and Kherson partisanshttps://t.co/EoZwhvijYJ pic.twitter.com/CvbsmMPcgs

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 4, 2023

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar:

KREMINNA AXIS /1245 UTC 4 FEB/ RU continues determined offensive efforts in the Kreminna Area of Operations (AO). During the period 3-4 FEB, RU forces resumed serial offensives & armed reconnaissance across the P-66 HWY. UKR artillery and air strikes hit RU troops. pic.twitter.com/tSCa9UC3os

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 4, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1310 UTC 4 FEB/ RU forces continue offensive operations against Krasna Hora. UKR has maintained a disruptive lodgment near Klischiivka. UKR missiles, artillery and strike aviation targeted RU troop concentrations and HQ elements in heavy fighting. pic.twitter.com/Pl603PDDua

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 4, 2023

VUHLEDAR /1510 UTC 4 FEB/ RU troops continue piecemeal offensive operations against Vuhledar. RU ground attacks are impeded by flat, open terrain and a river perpendicular to the axis of advance. Russian attacks in the Vuhledar Area of Operations AO may be diversionary. pic.twitter.com/S1ByWcvpvA

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 4, 2023

Bakhmut:

Update on Bakhmut, 4 February: the situation is as difficult as it was, but the Cossacks are holding the defence. In Kiyanyn's personal opinion, Bakhmut may be the breaking point for the Russians, who are not having an easy time they're trying to demonstrate. pic.twitter.com/WTWhb13Bbd

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 4, 2023

And the rest of David Patrikarakos’s reporting from the Thread Reader App:

Bakhmut itself is a hellscape of destruction. The city is almost deserted save for the odd, usually older, civilian who refuses to leave. 🇷🇺 forces are pounding it relentlessly. They are clearly targeting everything regardless of whether it is civilian or not.

If you want to discover the madness of #Russia’s 🇷🇺invasion of #Ukraine🇺🇦 come to Bakhmut. The battle for the city is now the longest of the war but the city is only of limited strategic value. Once more, Ukrainians are paying in blood for the insane dreams of a modern-day Czar.

“The full contact front is just there,” says one of the #Ukraine🇺🇦 soldiers I am with. “The Russians are just 200 metres down that road. Tomorrow, I will come back and kill them.”

The #Russia🇷🇺 tactics are based on what the soldiers here describe as “meat waves” of soldiers, usually conscripts or prisoners fighting for Wagner who are promised a pardon if they survive more than 6 months. The #🇺🇦Ukrainians often wipe them out. But more always come.

The #Ukraine 🇺🇦soldiers here have been fighting for a long time and they are tired, but morale remains high. They remain convinced they will win.

The #Ukraine 🇺🇦soldiers here always keen to show their appreciation – mainly to 🇺🇸 & 🇬🇧 – for all the help they have received. Here, @posoh_Strannika makes his feelings known. 

Drones are changing this war. A soldier tells me: “A while ago we used big, expensive tactical drones, made or the military but now, small and medium-sized civilian drones are becoming separate military units because they can cause great damage to the enemy.”

He continues: “We have learned how to attach small grenades and bombs to them. Now we can send up a small $3,000 Mavik 3 with a $30 grenade — and if you drop it perfectly on a T-90 you can take out a tank that costs millions.”

On the SF base I speak to the commander there. He continues, “if we were to lose Bakhmut, then speaking without emotion, it would not be a strategic defeat, we’d just lose a town. But in the meantime, we tie up a large force of Russians so they cannot proceed in other areas.”

“I think the battle will continue for about one or two months unless there is a major encirclement or something unexpected happens – it will go street by street; the artillery will slowly destroy all the tall buildings & it will descend to urban warfare. It will crawl to an end.”

Here’s the video from the seventh tweet. It seems to have gotten scrubbed between Twitter, the Thread Reader App, and WordPress:

The #Ukraine 🇺🇦soldiers here always keen to show their appreciation – mainly to 🇺🇸 & 🇬🇧 – for all the help they have received. Here, @posoh_Strannika makes his feelings known. pic.twitter.com/GXAT2OGCwd

— David Patrikarakos (@dpatrikarakos) February 3, 2023

Vuldehar:

2/4 The enemy attacks mostly during the daytime and reduces night-time combats, except for artillery shelling and brief tank shoot-and-scoot attacks: armed with thermal scopes(including French ones) tanks make 3-5 shots and then retreat.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 3, 2023

4/4 While I do not have information as to why they are in the area, it seems like they were hoping to enter Vuhledar right after the 155th and 40th brigades. Publicity stunt to market Shoigu's creation amidst growing popularity of the "Wagner" has failed.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 3, 2023

4/4 You can also see how the enemy attempted to outflank Vuhledar from the East, but sustained losses and had to retreat to Mykil's'ke.

Overall the situation remains dangerous due to increasing numbers of enemy infantry and artillery. pic.twitter.com/ObF0QWUBIK

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 4, 2023

Belgorod!

The Ukrainian Army has struck a giant oil depot near Belgorod, Russia.

A nearby metal factory providing material for the reconstruction of the Crimean Bridge has also caught on fire.

The fire is only growing larger and larger. pic.twitter.com/0RSvaPnmOO

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) February 4, 2023

A severe fire is reported in Borisovka, Belgorod Region, presumably a local oil storage facility is on fire. Russians are again clumsily handling cigarette butts. pic.twitter.com/BipHUBlJfz

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 3, 2023

Additional footage of a fire at an oil storage facility in the Borisovka, Belgorod region this night.
It is also interesting that, according to the information from the website of the factory, where this incident occurred, this plant also manufactured parts for Crimean bridge. pic.twitter.com/hY2RWQQ81O

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 4, 2023

The Guardian brings us reporting that I think is illuminating of the news that key infrastructure in Belgorod, Russia is burning:

If the worst happens, Taras, 23, Vladyslav, 21, and their commander, Olexiy, 39, are well aware that the Ukrainian government will deny any knowledge of them. In western capitals, there is a collective shudder at the very thought of them.

They are members of the Bratstvo battalion, a volunteer group of Ukrainian special forces, taking the fight against Vladimir Putin beyond the frontlines of the war in Ukraine, past the occupied areas of their country – and deep into Russia.

Their work ranges from the kidnapping of senior Kremlin officials, to the destruction of key military infrastructure and the downing of enemy aircraft on Russian territory.

It might seem odd for a battalion such as theirs to allow their stories to be heard in public. But that is to misunderstand their purpose. In everything they do, there is a single message they want to send. “It is very easy for us to cross the Russian border,” says Vladyslav, the youngest of the three, with a smile.

The volunteers of the Bratstvo, Ukrainian for brotherhood, have a peculiar status, technically independent from Ukraine’s army but operating side by side with the official forces. Their arm’s-length status offers deniability.

Olexiy is in “intelligence”, he says, but the battalion recruits mainly civilians, or plucks the brightest from other voluntary battalions. He says he understands why their work must remain apart. The reasoning is nevertheless hard for them all to swallow.

It comes down to the west’s nervousness at the thought of Ukraine having the capacity to hit Russia in Russia, as highlighted by the protracted debate over Germany’s provision of Leopard 2 tanks, and the refusal of the US and others to supply F16 fighter jets.

Much of that anxiety is probably linked to the Kremlin’s threat to use nuclear weapons if the “very existence of the state is put under threat”.

“It turns out that Russians can go to Ukrainian territory, but Ukrainians cannot go into Russia,” Olexiy says.

The Bratstvo volunteers are not deterred. They insist it is vital for the Russian high command to feel the heat of battle on their own territory.

Wearing jeans, jumpers and hoodies, they are drinking coffee in Kyiv’s Taras Shevchenko Park as they tell of their adventures, while on a break from training, planning and missions. The only hint of who they are is the handgun on Vladyslav’s hip.

Because of their unofficial status, their stories could not be independently verified but they are convincing and credible. They are also extraordinary in their daring.

The second eldest of the three men, Taras, says he returned two weeks ago from what he described as a straightforward operation. “Our group needed to bring a certain amount of explosives to the territory of Russia and leave them in a certain place,” he says. “I don’t know for what and whom this explosive was intended. But I know for sure that some people in Russia are ready to help Ukrainians.”

The small taskforces, often just four or five soldiers, work out where the safe routes lie into Russia by examining the movement of livestock, or taking the advice of those who smuggled contraband before the war.

Vladyslav and his fellow fighters were tasked with “capturing or killing one of the high-ranking officers of the FSB”, the Russian security services.

“He worked close to the border with Ukraine, but on the territory of Russia,” says Vladyslav. “We had the route of this Russian officer’s car and we decided to set up an ambush.”

They were in position for hours but the car did not arrive, and the primary goal had to be abandoned as day broke. They needed to get out but they faced the challenge of breaking back into Ukraine, past the watching Russian forces gathered at the border.

“We met a border post of Russian border guards,” Vladyslav recalls. “We engaged, we were four on four. We killed three Russians and slightly wounded one. We captured him, took him to Ukrainian territory and handed him over to the Ukrainian military.”

The Ukrainians had survived another day with just one of their group suffering a gunshot wound to his arm.

Taras adds: “Our operations are actually twice as safe as those performed by the Ukrainian armed forces. It seems that this is a very dangerous job, but we are very seriously preparing for it.”

The importance of their role, for all that it is denied by the government in Kyiv and disliked by western capitals, is clear to them.

“[Western readers] may expect from us that we are going to blow up the Kremlin, but so far this is not the case,” says Taras. “My opinion is that you should start with small tasks and then move on to more complex ones. A friend of mine has a saying: ‘To destroy an enemy military base, you must first blow up the doghouse.’”

Much, much more at the link!

And some more good news:

Mangushev wasn't just some Russian merc, but a political technologist/propagandist with a reputed connection to Wagner boss and all-round-Kremlin-businessthug Prigozhin, through the latter's media and consulting empires 2/https://t.co/zXLnksOk4c

— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) February 4, 2023

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

He wasn’t in Wagner, but instead, operating with the callsign ‘Bereg,’ served as a captain in the 4th brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army. However, all was not quite as it seemed

Соратнику Пригожина Игорю Мангушеву выстрелили в голову с близкого расстоянияКак сообщил военный аналитик Борис Рожин, тяжелое ранение в голову получил, сотрудничавший с основателем ЧВК “Вагнер” Евгением Пригожиным владелец телеграм-канала «Записки авантюриста», капитан 4 бриг…https://www.mk.ru/politics/2023/02/04/soratniku-prigozhina-igoryu-mangushevu-vystrelili-v-golovu-s-blizkogo-rasstoyaniya.html

In many ways it is a reflection of the way Russian warfighting has become a public-private partnership that his unit, which seemed to be a specialist anti-drone one, was dogged with suggestions that it was privately funded/run even if formally army /4

“ВСУ се боят от нас”. Как воюва “подразделението на бъдещето”/Поглед.инфо/ „Лудите влизат в окопите с пластмасови оръжия“, шегуват се военните за този малък отряд на армията на ЛНР. Основната задача на бойците е да ловят дронове. За това как го правят – в матер…https://pogled.info/svetoven/russia/vsu-se-boyat-ot-nas-kak-voyuva-podrazdelenieto-na-badeshteto.151290

Mangushev himself had apparently fought in the Donbas in the ENOT PMC in 2014 and consorted with local proxy-politicians and neo-Nazis 5/

Кто такой Игорь Мангушев, который выступил с черепом и назвал его “останками” защитника “Азовстали”Украина обратилась в ООН в связи с видео, на котором российский наемник Игорь Мангушев произносит речь со сцены, держа в руках, как он говорит, череп убитого украинца, защищавшего “Азовсталь” во время…https://www.currenttime.tv/a/ukraine-russia-war-mangushev/32010950.html

In between, he has been a political technologist/political hitman affiliated with Prigozhin’s Patriot news network, especially targeting liberals like Lyubov Sobol, who was closely affiliated with Alexei Navalny 6/

Мангушев заявил об угрозе собственной безопасности со стороны «Новой газеты»Любовь Соболь, тесно связанная со структурами блогера Алексея Навального, подала запрос в СК для привлечения к уголовной ответственности политтехнолога Игоря Мангушева. Поводом для этого стало расслед…https://realtribune.ru/news-news-3313

Then he turns up in the ranks, not least with his ghastly skull stunt, having – by his claim to Meduza – been the originator of the now-infamous ‘Z’ (although one needs to take the claims of self-publicists with some caution) 7/

Буква Z — официальный (и зловещий) символ российского вторжения в Украину. Мы попытались выяснить, кто это придумал, — и вот что из этого получилось — MeduzaПервые снимки и видео, запечатлевшие российскую военную технику с непонятной маркировкой на борту, появились в соцсетях за несколько недель до начала войны. Чаще всего встречалась латинская литера Z —…https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/15/bukva-z-ofitsialnyy-i-zloveschiy-simvol-rossiyskogo-vtorzheniya-v-ukrainu-my-popytalis-vyyasnit-kto-eto-pridumal-i-vot-chto-iz-etogo-poluchilos?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=live&utm_campaign=live

A persistent suggestion has been that this humble ‘captain’ in the army is actually not only one of Prigozhin’s people but operating near-autonomously, and perhaps being groomed as a future ‘hero’ precisely for PR benefit 8/ 

And now suddenly he has been shot in the head. In battle? “Doctors say that he was wounded as a result of a shot from a short-barreled gun at close range in the occipito-parietal region downwards at an angle of 45 degrees.” 9/

Соратнику Пригожина Игорю Мангушеву выстрелили в голову с близкого расстоянияКак сообщил военный аналитик Борис Рожин, тяжелое ранение в голову получил, сотрудничавший с основателем ЧВК “Вагнер” Евгением Пригожиным владелец телеграм-канала «Записки авантюриста», капитан 4 бриг…https://www.mk.ru/politics/2023/02/04/soratniku-prigozhina-igoryu-mangushevu-vystrelili-v-golovu-s-blizkogo-rasstoyaniya.html

Now, I may be the wrong sort of doctor, but that sounds like a ‘control shot’ execution from a pistol. According to the same report, he is currently alive but unlikely to survive. I think we can safely describe this as a hit. 10/ 

Was this about him or a proxy attack on Prigozhin? Obviously at this stage, impossible to say. However, it is worth noting that Prigozhin may have somewhat over-extended himself of late. 11/ 

Putin pretty much closed down his attacks on St P governor Beglov. Having watched Wagner burn through its zek-mercs in Wagner, the MOD now seems to be stepping in. The FSB, which for so long was happy to be on sidelines, may be getting fed up of him. 12/ 

So this could be a warning, or taking a pawn off the board, or a sign that Prigozhin’s more thuggish rivals feel he is weakened enough that they can move. Either way, it demonstrates how, under the pressure of war (and Putin’s apparent inability to control elite conflicts)… 13/ Russia is sliding back towards (aspects of) the ‘wild 90s,’ when murder was a business tactic, and the lines between politics, business, crime and war became near-meaningless. 14/end

And now we turn to the most recent news regarding the wayward Chinese spy balloon.

Obligatory:

Notable: US officials say they were able to block the balloon from gathering intel during its overflight of the US, while the US military was able to turn the tables, so to speak, to gather intel on the balloon itself and its equipment.

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) February 4, 2023

The Associated Press has more details: (emphasis mine)

The massive white orb that drifted across U.S. airspace this week and was shot down by the Air Force over the Atlantic on live television Saturday triggered a diplomatic maelstrom and blew up on social media.

China insists the balloon was just an errant civilian airship used mainly for meteorological research that went off course due to winds and had only limited “self-steering” capabilities.

The United States says it was a Chinese spy balloon without a doubt. Its presence prompted Secretary of State Antony Blinken to cancel a weekend trip to China that was aimed at dialing down tensions that were already high between the countries.

The Pentagon says the balloon, which was carrying sensors and surveillance equipment, was maneuverable and showed it could change course. It loitered over sensitive areas of Montana where nuclear warheads are siloed, leading the military to take actions to prevent it from collecting intelligence.

A U.S. Air Force fighter jet shot down the balloon Saturday afternoon off the Carolina coast. Television footage showed a small explosion, followed by the balloon slowly drifting toward the water. An operation is underway to recover the remnants.

The Pentagon and other U.S. officials say it was a Chinese spy balloon — about the size of three school buses — that moved east over America at an altitude of about 60,000 feet (18,600 meters). The U.S. says it was being used for surveillance and intelligence collection, but officials have provided few details.

U.S. defense and military officials said Saturday that the balloon entered the U.S. air defense zone north of the Aleutian Islands on Jan. 28 and moved over land across Alaska and into Canadian airspace in the Northwest Territories on Jan. 30. The next day it crossed back into U.S. territory over northern Idaho. U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic.

The White House said Biden was first briefed on the balloon on Tuesday. The State Department said Blinken and Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman spoke with China’s senior Washington-based official on Wednesday evening about the matter.

In the first public U.S. statement, Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said Thursday evening that the balloon was not a military or physical threat — an acknowledgement that it was not carrying weapons. He said that “once the balloon was detected, the U.S. government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information.”

As for intelligence value, the U.S. officials said the balloon’s voyage across the U.S. gave experts several days to analyze it, gather technical data, and learn a lot about what it was doing, how it was doing it and why China may be using things like this. They declined to provide details, but said they expect to learn more as they gather and scrutinize the debris.

U.S. officials said Saturday that similar Chinese balloons transited the continental United States briefly at least three times during the Trump administration and once that they know about earlier in the Biden administration. But none of those incidents lasted this length of time.

Well imagine that. There is a reason that the government doesn’t just disclose certain information. Largely because while the Chinese use these things to try to collect information on us, we are collecting information on their capabilities to collect information on us. Had a reporter not been looking up at exactly the right moment, we wouldn’t know about this week’s incursion. Also, for everyone freaking out that the PRC was using this to collect their personal data, I’d like to just take a moment to introduce them to their smart phones! And for those freaking out that the PRC were using this to infect us with a bio-weapon – and the venn diagram on these two groups is almost a perfect circle – I’d like to just take a moment that you all consider COVID to be a PRC bio-weapon and yet, despite all your claims of patriotism, you couldn’t be bothered to get vaccinated, let alone vaccinated and boosted, let alone vaccinated, boosted, and wear a mask to help fend off what you believe is an act of war.

https://t.co/Q3pcmtUDlq

— a ghostly fella (@mr_gh0stly) February 4, 2023

BAWWOON NO 😭 pic.twitter.com/QkaBz5EEQi

— a ghostly fella (@mr_gh0stly) February 4, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Every dog is a herrro.
Herrro isn't only someone who demands to survive and fight but also one who extends his paw to help him (or her). And I’ve created a HERRRO collection for dogs worldwide to show their support to Ukrainian-tailed friends. I made HERRRO to help UA animals⬇️ pic.twitter.com/dPKgsRgTZM

— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 4, 2023

Sorry, Tom shout that cats can be HERRRO too. Just choose size S pic.twitter.com/M9GPzwHhj5

— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 4, 2023

Here’s the link to all the items under Patron’s HERRRO brand for your four footed friends.

Or your two footed ones if you’re into that… And everyone is consenting… Just remember, the safe word should be one syllable only!

Open thread!

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Another Ukraine-European Union summit took place today. It was held in Kyiv, our capital. We have quite specific agreements with our partners on how Ukraine will become even closer to the European Union.

This morning in Ukraine, like many others, began with an air raid alert. This day, like many others, was spent in extremely brutal battles at the front.

But all the same, this evening we can say that Ukraine is moving towards its goal.

We’ve preserved Ukrainian freedom. We’re protecting the values of Ukraine. And we will achieve the goals of our state. European goals of our state.

Today, there was a lot of confidence in this during the summit. We spoke and are already speaking as members of the European community. And we are working to fix this de jure.

What exactly did we agree on today?

There is an understanding that it is possible to start negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union this year.

The partners also understand that this year, as last year, we have to continuously strengthen the defense support of our country and the pressure on Russia, in particular the sanctions pressure.

We talked today about the tenth EU sanctions package, which is currently being prepared. There are our proposals for this package – we announced them to our partners today.

We discussed changes in the institutions of our state, which we are implementing. And which we are still preparing to implement. Financial cooperation was discussed. Of course, we discussed the restoration of infrastructure, primarily social and energy.

Also, the implementation of our Fast Recovery Plan, what needs to be restored now.

I thank the European Commission for the decision on EUR 1 billion, which will be sent specifically to Fast Recovery.

We are preparing for greater integration of Ukraine into the internal market of the EU – it means more income for Ukrainian companies, more production and jobs in our country, and more income for state and local budgets. That is, it is what makes Ukraine really stronger.

And for me, it is very important that there are specifics regarding such areas as, for example, replacing the children’s boarding school system in our country with another one. More civilized and friendly to children who, unfortunately, do not have parental care.

Children should have a family. Raising children in family-type orphanages is definitely much better than the old boarding school system. We will make this reform together with the European Union. An appropriate office will be created to be responsible for this reform. And preliminary agreements regarding this reform have already been outlined.

I have already reported on the various arrangements regarding our Peace Formula. These are specific ten points, the implementation of which will definitely make it possible to restore our territorial integrity and security, not only of Ukraine but also of the whole of Europe and the international legal order. That is, to restore everything that Russia’s aggression is destroying.

Today, the European Union officially supported the Ukrainian Peace Formula. This was recorded in the final statement of the summit. And we agreed on concrete assistance from the EU in implementing our Peace Formula.

This is a significant diplomatic achievement. And we are doing everything to make Russia’s aggression suicidal for it.

The situation at the front remains very difficult, especially in Donetsk region.

I thank all our soldiers who withstand the harsh pressure of the occupiers and who clearly and completely fulfill the task of defending our positions. And who, even in such difficult conditions as on the front lines now, bring Ukraine good news.

In particular, I thank the 10th mountain assault brigade for successful counteroffensive actions in Donetsk region!

Thanks to the fighters of the 54th separate mechanized brigade – for their bravery and true Ukrainian resilience in the battles for Donbas!

The 81st separate airmobile brigade and the 66th separate mechanized brigade – I thank you, guys, for the protection of Luhansk region and steel strength!

And I would like to single out our National Guardsmen – the 3rd operational brigade of the National Guard. Guys who successfully destroy enemy aircraft in Donetsk region. Thank you!

Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who helps us defend ourselves from the occupier!

Thank you to everyone who strengthens our international positions and helps get weapons for Ukraine!

Today, I spoke with the Minister of Defence of Poland in Kyiv – he, together with other partners and the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, took part in the third meeting of the states that are members of our tank coalition. We are doing everything to ensure that our soldiers receive modern tanks as soon as possible.

And today, the United States announced another large package of defense support for our country. I thank President Biden, all friends of freedom in Congress, and every American for this tangible support!

Now, we must work together to deliver this aid to Ukraine as quickly as possible.

And one more.

There are other sanctions decisions of the National Security and Defense Council of our country against those who work for Russian aggression.

The decrees on the implementation of the decisions of the National Security and Defense Council have already been prepared.

And separately, I thank the employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, the SBI, the National Police, and the Prosecutor General’s Office for taking new steps to restore justice after the actions of those who did not understand that in public positions one should work only for the interests of the state.

Glory to Ukraine!

Thank you @POTUS for the new $2.2 billion defense aid package. It's important to strengthen the 🇺🇦 Defense Forces. Together with 🇺🇸 we stand against terror! The more long-range our weapons are and the more mobile our troops are the sooner Russia's brutal aggression will end.

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 3, 2023

Here’s what’s in the aid package:

‼️ Pentagon Spox Pat Ryder: Precision-guided rockets in the package for #Ukraine are GLSDB bombs. This will give them a longer-range capability that will enable Ukrainians to conduct operations to defend their country and take back their sovereign territory.

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) February 3, 2023

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT /1240 UTC 3 FEB/ The slow progress of RU Wagner PMC units has compelled Moscow to engage increasing numbers of regular RU forces in the Bakhmut Area of Operations (AO). These forces include Russian VDV (Airborne) units and motor rifle troops. Heavy fighting continues. pic.twitter.com/WFFsXXPQBL

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 3, 2023

Bakhmut:

The river that splits Bakhmut in two has become a key dividing line in the fighting. People living on the eastern bank, risk their life every day to get water, woods or reach one of the humanitarian centers for a hot meal, or some precious internet

2/8#AFP #ukraine #bakhmut pic.twitter.com/Xf4ESJDcYY

— Arman Soldin (@ArmanSoldin) February 2, 2023

Just about to cross the bridge on her daily trip to get water and/or wood, Natalia, 75, says she spends so long taking cover in her basement that she feels "like a mole" as she steps out into the light and her eyes adjust, "how could I leave?"

3/8#AFP #ukraine #bakhmut pic.twitter.com/DB3aBKCPUT

— Arman Soldin (@ArmanSoldin) February 2, 2023

Around 7,000 people (75,000 pre-war) — many of them elderly — still live in the town despite the constant sound of artillery exchanges, gunfire and drones buzzing overhead.

5/8#AFP #ukraine #bakhmut pic.twitter.com/d8Sy6cs2Yo

— Arman Soldin (@ArmanSoldin) February 2, 2023

"Only a fool wouldn't be afraid," she says.
"Everything is possible, if God wants it, I'll stay alive," she says outside her Soviet-era apartment building as she hauls sacks of wooden pallets, "that's how we live in the 21st century"

7/8#AFP #ukraine #bakhmut pic.twitter.com/2RLDfQvulI

— Arman Soldin (@ArmanSoldin) February 2, 2023

Outside the city, Ukrainian soldiers have been busy fortifying positions as RU forces have been trying to seize control of the city for months in what has become the longest and bloodiest battle since Russia invaded Ukraine last February.

8/8 THE END#AFP #ukraine #bakhmut pic.twitter.com/sppEvZkm3b

— Arman Soldin (@ArmanSoldin) February 2, 2023

Soledar:

Spent the day with a mortar unit of the 10th Mountain Brigade operating in the direction of Soledar. The soldiers were using a French MO-120-RT mortar, which they described as powerful and "extremely accurate." Today's fire mission was successful, according to spotters. pic.twitter.com/cOOpAgMLcT

— Guillaume Ptak (@guillaume_ptak) February 3, 2023

Here’s a BBC video report that you may find interesting:

“I have no moral right to ask Ukrainians for forgiveness. I can’t forgive myself, so I can’t expect them to forgive me.” A former Russian army officer tells us about crimes he says he saw Russian soldiers committing in Ukraine, including torture & looting. Producer @BBCWillVernon pic.twitter.com/vNDOjKGpBW

— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) February 2, 2023

If Bloomberg‘s reporting is accurate, the Biden administration’s strategy is too cynical by half:

The war in Ukraine is reaching a new phase, and US strategy is undergoing an important shift. Fears of Russian nuclear escalation are receding as fears of a long war featuring unrelenting attrition are increasing. So President Joe Biden’s administration is ramping up support for Ukraine now in hopes of producing an eventual diplomatic resolution — an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy that may prove very difficult to execute.

Nearly a year into the war, uncertainty about its course is greater than ever. For the first six months, Russia had the initiative: The major questions were when, where and with what success it would attack. Over the following five months, Ukraine had the initiative, and analysts tried to divine the location and prospects of its counteroffensives.

Now, it’s harder to tell what comes next and who has the edge. Both sides may be preparing new offensives. And both sides are dealing with a mix of battlefield losses and new capabilities that make it more difficult to discern their relative strengths.

Russian President Vladimir Putin probably believes that his best ally is time. If he can keep hammering Ukraine’s infrastructure, while at least holding what he has on the battlefield, perhaps he can create a protracted slugfest in which Russia’s superior manpower will prove decisive.

Ukraine sees time as its enemy. It must exploit Russia’s weakened, poorly equipped forces now, before additional newly mobilized Russian troops arrive on the battlefield, before Russian defense production hits high gear, and before support from Kyiv’s Western backers dissipates.

The Biden administration is only guardedly optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects. The easiest gains at the expense of an overstretched Russian army may already have been had. Putin is defending a shorter front with a larger number of troops. That makes routing Russia from every inch of Ukrainian territory difficult, even if Kyiv’s committed, creative military can go further than it has to date.

So the US administration is updating its strategy in three ways.

First, it is better defining American war aims. In December, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the US is committed to helping Ukraine liberate lands lost since February 2022, but not necessarily every inch of territory Putin has stolen since 2014. Washington’s goal is a Ukraine that is militarily defensible, politically independent and economically viable; this doesn’t necessarily include retaking difficult areas such as the eastern Donbas or Crimea.

Second, the US and its allies are sending Ukraine more sophisticated weapons: Armored personnel carriers, Patriot missiles, and tanks that can bust through layered Russian defenses. Washington is also moving toward providing longer-range munitions that can pulverize Russian rear areas: The ground-launched small diameter bomb, likely to be part of an upcoming assistance package, has nearly twice the range of the HIMARS rounds Ukrainian forces have used to devastating effect. The next debate may involve sophisticated aircraft: Biden recently said the US won’t provide F-16 fighters to Ukraine, but that’s also what he said about providing American tanks up until the moment he changed his mind.

Third, Biden may not envision Ukraine liberating Crimea by force, but he has reportedly become more supportive of strikes against Russian targets there. Could hitting Crimea, which is central to Putin’s narrative of Russian resurrection under his rule, trigger escalation?

More at the link!

Why is this cynical, because CBS News confirms what we’ve all long known and what the fourth paragraph of the Bloomberg reporting above states:

CIA Director William Burns said Thursday that the next six months would be “critical” in the war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin betting that waning Western interest and “political fatigue” could afford his military a new chance at making battlefield gains.

“Putin, I think, is betting right now that he can make time work for him,” Burns said. “The key is going to be on the battlefield in the next six months, it seems to us.”

“Puncturing Putin’s hubris, making clear that he’s not only not going to be able to advance further in Ukraine, but as every month goes by, he runs a greater and greater risk of losing the territory that he’s illegally seized from Ukraine so far,” he continued. “So this next period, I think, is going to be absolutely crucial.”

There is no escalating to deescalate with Putin. Because Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement. This doesn’t mean that Putin will escalate beyond conventional weaponry to nuclear – as I’ve repeatedly explained, that part of Russian military doctrine was always intended to create information advantage and dominance and prevent US, NATO, and other decision-makers from actually doing anything to stop him – it just means he’s not going to stop what he’s doing.

The Guardian reports on the auto body shop that has been set up to get all the Russian military equipment seized by Ukraine repaired and back into service.

The first task is to wipe off or cover up the Z, says Anatoly, 44, of the call sign infamously daubed on Russian hardware involved in the war in Ukraine. “We don’t want friendly fire later on.” Then the mechanics get to work.

In a secret location in Ukraine, within a vast warehouse that could be mistaken for a tank graveyard, what was once Russian – Soviet, in many cases – is being turned Ukrainian.

All the headlines have recently been made by the decision of Germany and a host of others to supply Ukraine with western heavy armour: Leopard 2s, Challengers and Abrams.

The names have become familiar and they may have the technical cutting-edge and firepower to turn the course of the Ukraine’s war, when they arrive and if in sufficient numbers.

But for all the efforts of the Nato allies, it is Russia that is unwittingly, and yet by some margin, Ukraine’s biggest donor of tanks today.

Admittedly the trophies do not always turn up in tip-top condition.

Gesturing towards a T-72B3, covered in dry leaves, and bearing evidence of battle in the form of warped and battered armour, Anatoly proudly boasts that it is the most recent upgrade of the old Soviet T-72 tank.

It was brought into the facility, which lies just a few miles from the frontlines, by the 54th brigade from the eastern Donetsk region, four weeks ago. “It took a direct hit on its turret,” says Anatoly. “The firing system was damaged too.”

They plan to get it back on its tracks in swift time, with added armour. There is little time for sentiment. Did Russian soldiers die in it? “I don’t know, I suppose so. There were arms and legs in it. Lots of blood.”

In some cases the Ukrainian army has set about getting such vehicles back on the field of battle under their flag. “But the state is busy repairing Ukrainian tanks,” says Roman Sinicyn, 37, a coordinator at the Serhiy Prytula Foundation, a charity managing this operation in partnership with an engineering company whose name is being withheld to avoid identification of the plant site.

As a result, civil society has stepped in. A host of private companies have set aside their usual business to get in the game of refurbishing killing machines: the tanks, armoured vehicles, missile systems and other lethal hardware left behind.

These operations are often funded through donations. The Prytula Foundation, one of the largest organisations crowdfunding the purchase of military equipment, has invested £200,000 in this facility. “It is not a lot of money,” says Bohdan Ostapchuk, 30, who is leading on tank refurbishment for the Prytula Foundation.

It has, however, borne deadly fruit: seven tanks back into battle, a command vehicle, a Hurricane rocket system, a multiple rocket system, an infantry transport vehicle and a host of armoured vehicles, so far.

Their destinations are a roll-call of Ukraine’s deadliest hot spots: Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Luhansk, Svatove, to name a few.

The liberation of the Kharkiv region, in north-east Ukraine, last May was the high point in the hunt for battlefield treasure, as the Russian forces panicked in retreat. “It was like walking into a big, big shop where you can walk through and say, ‘I will have this one, and this one,’” says Ostapchuk.

The mistake was not repeated when the Kremlin ordered the retreat in the southern Kherson region before Christmas, but there remains a healthy supply of vehicles coming through the doors. They are, however, often of an older model, the mechanics note.

Pointing to a former personnel carrier brought in by Ukraine’s 46th airborne brigade from Soledar, the eastern Ukrainian city recently captured by Russia, Anatoly says it was probably built somewhere between 1982 and 1987.

The same goes for a Soviet-era Shturm S model anti-tank missile carrier that bears the O sign of the Russian marines on it side. It went over a mine near Vuhledar in the Donetsk region and was abandoned.

Then there is the T62 Soviet tank, likely dating from 1970 or so, brought back by the 128th mountain brigade from Kherson, three months ago, at the time of the Ukrainian counteroffensive there.

“This old tank is no good for war,” says Anatoly, “so we have cut off the top of it, the turret and we are going to turn it into an evacuation vehicle that can pull heavy armoured tanks when they get stuck.”

More at the link!

Finally, The New York Times brings us a report on what Russian soldiers’ lies are worth in Russia:

The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials.

While the officials caution that casualties are notoriously difficult to estimate, particularly because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, they say the slaughter from fighting in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and the town of Soledar has ballooned what was already a heavy toll.

With Moscow desperate for a major battlefield victory and viewing Bakhmut as the key to seizing the entire eastern Donbas area, the Russian military has sent poorly trained recruits and former convicts to the front lines, straight into the path of Ukrainian shelling and machine guns. The result, American officials say, has been hundreds of troops killed or injured a day.

Russia analysts say that the loss of life is unlikely to be a deterrent to Mr. Putin’s war aims. He has no political opposition at home and has framed the war as the kind of struggle the country faced in World War II, when more than 8 million Soviet troops died. U.S. officials have said that they believe that Mr. Putin can sustain hundreds of thousands of casualties in Ukraine, although higher numbers could cut into his political support.

On Norwegian TV on Jan. 22, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, Norway’s defense chief, said estimates were that Russia had suffered 180,000 dead and wounded, while Ukraine had 100,000 killed or wounded in action along with 30,000 civilian deaths. General Kristoffersen, in an email to The New York Times through his spokesman, said that there is “much uncertainty regarding these numbers, as no one at the moment are able to give a good overview. They could be both lower or even higher.”

Senior U.S. officials said this week that they believe the number for Russia is closer to 200,000. That toll, in just 11 months, is eight times higher than American casualties in two decades of war in Afghanistan.

A senior U.S. military official last month described the combat around Bakhmut as savage. The two sides exchanged several thousand rounds of artillery fire each day, while the Wagner private military company, which has been central to Russia’s efforts there, had essentially begun using recruited convicts as cannon fodder, the official told reporters. He spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details.

The convicts took the brunt of the Ukrainian response while the group’s more seasoned fighters moved in behind them to claim ground, the official said. Wagner has recruited some 50,000 troops to fight in Ukraine, according to senior American military and defense officials.

Thousands of the convicts have been killed, a loss of life that has shocked American officials, who say the strategic value of Bakhmut simply is not in line with the price Russia has paid.

Kusti Salm, Estonia’s deputy defense minister, in a briefing with reporters in Washington last week, said that Russia was better able to stand its losses than Ukraine.

“In this particular area, the Russians have employed around 40,000 to 50,000 inmates or prisoners,” Mr. Salm said. “They are going up against regular soldiers, people with families, people with regular training, valuable people for the Ukrainian military.”

“So the exchange rate is unfair,” he added. “It’s not one to one because for Russia, inmates are expendable. From an operational perspective, this is a very unfair deal for the Ukrainians and a clever tactical move from the Russian side.”

“In essence, it does not matter how big the Russian losses are, since their overall human resource is much greater than Ukraine’s,” Mr. Salm, the Estonian official, said in a follow-up email. “In Russia the life of a soldier is worth nothing. A dead soldier, on the other hand, is a hero, regardless of how he died. All lost soldiers can be replaced, and the number of losses will not shift the public opinion against the war.”

More at the link!

Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Це відчуття…

♬ я пою – кефир

The caption machine translates as:

This feeling

Open thread!

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today there was no shortage of statements and comments throughout the day, no shortage of news, especially in the diplomatic sphere.

That’s why today’s report is brief. I will start with something that has not yet been reported.

Today, I held a meeting of the Staff, for the first time in a dual format.

First, the traditional full composition of the Staff. We reviewed the situation at the front, Russia’s attempts to increase pressure in Donbas. The issue of supplying the army. Training of personnel and other issues of constant attention of the Staff.

And then, in the afternoon, an additional meeting of the members of the Staff in a narrow format. For a particularly important conversation.

We will not leave any aggressive action of the invader without our response. The enemy is at a specific stage when Russia’s strategic defeat is already clear. But tactically, they still have the resources to attempt offensive actions. They are looking for options to try to change the course of the war and are trying to put the potential of all the territories they still control in the service of aggression.

We have to continue what we are doing: strengthen our resilience, be absolutely united in our aspiration to provide our army and all defenders with the necessary weapons and equipment – we in Ukraine need to speak with one voice to the world on defense supplies. We also need to tangibly increase global pressure on Russia every month.

The enemy must come out of this stage much weaker than they anticipate in the worst-case scenario.

This is a difficult task for us. But we must accomplish it.

We also continue our fight against the internal enemy. I am grateful to the Security Service of Ukraine, the State Bureau of Investigation, the Prosecutor General’s Office and all those who are involved in the cleansing of our country. New steps will follow.

Today, in the framework of negotiations with the President of the European Commission and members of the European Commission Board, we have reached very important mutual understandings. That only together a strong Ukraine and a strong European Union can protect the life we value.

That Ukraine needs unwavering and full support in its defense against Russia.

And that we must, through our further integration, give energy and motivation to our people to fight despite any obstacles and threats.

I believe that Ukraine deserves to reach the beginning of negotiations on EU membership this year already.

And I thank Mrs. President of the European Commission, her colleagues and our friends in the EU for their tangible support on the path of integration and in protecting our country and people.

This includes military, financial, energy and social support. And these are the changes by which we ensure more interaction between our institutions – institutions of Ukraine and the EU.

Tomorrow is the second European integration day of the week. The Ukraine-EU Summit will take place. We are preparing.

And one more thing.

Today I took part in the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, DC. This is an annual event that brings together the most powerful representatives of the American state and society. President Biden was there, as well as senators and members of the House of Representatives, leaders of religious communities and various political communities.

I urged them to do everything we can and as we must in confronting the Russian evil, so that the power of our actions could complement the power of our prayers.

Prayers for salvation from evil, for victory over the invaders, and for peace for all our people – in all municipalities of free Ukraine.

I thank each and every one of our warriors! All soldiers and sailors, sergeants and foremen, officers and generals! To everyone who is resilient!

I thank everyone who helps Ukraine! May all those who pray for our victory be heard!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in in Kreminna and Bakhmut:

KREMINNA AXIS /2150 UTC 2 FEB/ During the period 1-2 FEB, RU forces conducted a series of armed reconnaissance and offensive operations. UKR forces report contact W of the P-66 HWY between Ploschanka & Bilohorivka. pic.twitter.com/RunIq6cLCO

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 2, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1425 UTC 2 FEB/ RU forces have cut the T-05-13 HWY N of Bakhmut at Blahodatne. UKR staged a disruptive counter-strike against RU areas near Klischiivka. UKR Missile and Artillery targeted RU troop concentrations and a HQ element. pic.twitter.com/PcgxpCrhuN

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 2, 2023

Update on Bakhmut, 2 February. A message to the Ukrainian mobilised – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/X9AKq5ci6o

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 2, 2023

The issue confronting the Ukrainians regarding the defense of Bakhmut is risk versus reward. Or, in more tactical slang parlance, is the juice worth the squeeze. At one level you don’t want to take the morale hit of giving up a tactical objective you have spent a lot of blood and treasure on. At the same time one has to realistically and, frankly, dispassionately, or as dispassionately as possible, assess the chances for success. And part of that strategic calculus has to be answering the question of whether if Ukraine cedes Bakhmut to the Russians right now does it turns threat to challenge and challenge to opportunity for Ukraine in other places? I can’t answer that question because I’m not looking at the intelligence that the Ukrainians have so I don’t know what they know. Another consideration is very Taoist: “the wise man invests in loss” and “the wise man yields.” Basically if Ukraine stops opposing Russian force trying to take Bakhmut does it cause the Russians to tactically over balance – imagine what happens if someone is pushing on the front of your shoulder and instead of planting your feet and resisting you immediately shift your weight backwards and to the side – creating new openings and opportunities for Ukraine to use Russia’s momentum against them. I hope I haven’t lost you all, but this is basically taking a concept from internal martial arts – an aikido, judo, or tai chi concept – and applying it to modern combat. I can’t answer these questions from my home here in the US, but these are the questions that most surely are occupying the Ukrainian National Command Authority.

I would also suggest that Prigozhin desperately wants Bakhmut. Not because he wants Bakhmut to have Bakhmut, but because he needs it as part of his strategy to go after Gerasimov and Shoigu. Well if he wants it so bad, then give it to him. There are ways to make Bakhmut, to use Sun Tzu’s terminology, deadly ground. There are ways to attrit Prigozhin’s mercenaries and the Russian military in Bakhmut without direct combat. And ways to bottle them up in Bakhmut as well.

The Economist has reporting on the Ukrainian troops’ attitude in the east, including what to do about Bakhmut.

Colonel “Maestro” is a commander in the Kupiansk sector in eastern Ukraine. He has been fighting the Russians since they first invaded, in 2014. His car has a dish for Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite-internet service, now ubiquitous along the front lines, attached to its roof. Thanks to his drone intelligence teams, he can watch what the enemy is doing on the other side of the line in real time, “24/7”. One night this week he monitored 30 Russian men being sent forward. Two of them were killed. When that happened the rest marched on regardless and did not bolt for cover. In the end nine of them died. “They either had no regard for their own lives,” he says, “or they were on drugs.”

On January 30th Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, said “we see that they [the Russians] are preparing for more war, that they are mobilising more soldiers, more than 200,000, and potentially even more than that.” Mr Stoltenberg is not the only one to warn that a new offensive is in the offing. Ukrainian leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have said the same, and Russian artillery strikes have sharply stepped up in recent days.But most Ukrainian soldiers at the eastern front seem curiously unfazed. Colonel Maestro’s point is that the reinforcements will not be highly trained professionals. Far from it. Many are convicts who have joined the mercenary Wagner Group deployed in the fighting around the city of Bakhmut, because to do so is a way to get out of jail. Their motivation is low, unlike that of the men they are fighting.

If yet more Russian recruits are to be thrown at them, says Oleksandr, a sniper serving under the colonel, that means that the smell of the decomposing bodies abandoned by their comrades will be “unbearable”. Meanwhile, Brigadier-General Sergiy Melnyk, who oversees a large part of the Kharkiv region, including its border with Russia, says drones and satellite imagery have not indicated any new build-up of troops there. In fact, he says, the Russians are digging trenches and building defensive positions as if it is they who are expecting an attack.

Ukrainian commanders say that they believe the main Russian aim in trying to take Bakhmut is to present a success to the public at home, particularly for the Wagner Group. “It is in a valley,” says General Melnyk, so it will be hard, though not impossible, for the Russians to advance from there and to threaten the much bigger cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which would then become vulnerable to artillery. It is also possible that Ukrainian-held areas in the region could be encircled. From the Ukrainian perspective, General Melnyk says that the point of continuing to fight to retain the city, even at a high cost, is also symbolic. But beyond that, it plays an important role in tying down a large number of Russian troops. General Melnyk thinks that even if it is lost it could be recaptured later. But not all commanders think defending Bakhmut is worth it in terms of the heavy casualties. “If it was up to me I would pull out,” says another of them.

The general hastens to add that there is no room for complacency. He is preparing in case the Russians do launch a fresh push, he says, just as his own forces are getting ready for their own counter-offensive to drive the Russians out of the Ukrainian territory they occupy. It is almost a year since the Russians began their full-scale invasion of the country, but the general says that since Ukrainian forces pushed the Russians out of almost all of the Kharkiv region in September, and Ukrainian forces recaptured Kherson in November, psychologically everything has changed for his men. “We lost our fear of them. We understood that we can fight back and beat them.”

More at the link!

Vuhledar:

2/4 At first, I thought that they will accept the failure and will concentrate on holding their gains instead of developing the assault. Especially when some units in the 155th brigade, as well as reserves, refused to assault the "dachi" area.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 2, 2023

4/4 Personally, it seems that the enemy generals act like a gambler who is trying to win back the money he has lost, by borrowing even more money from friends and family. Because of this, this battle for Vuhledar is likely to be much longer and bloodier than it was anticipated.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 2, 2023

Kramatorsk:

Kramatorsk has witnessed Russian aggression since 2014. In April 2022 Russian missile killed 60 people trying to evacuate at the railway station. And now new Iskander attack destroyed residential building, killing people in their beds. How long will it last? pic.twitter.com/Q20C71YvJn

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 2, 2023

Apartment building in Kramatorsk destroyed by Russian missile last night. There may still be people under the rubble. Sickening. Painful to see. pic.twitter.com/Ru0uQ84I9R

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 2, 2023

Izium:

Lyudmila takes Monica for a walk to the devastated main square of Izium. The city was liberated 5 months ago, but the scars are everywhere. On the buildings and on the souls. pic.twitter.com/8QNwCBqZHb

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 2, 2023

We interrupt this War for Ukraine update to bring you news of a People’s Liberation Army surveillance balloon spotted over the US…

“The government has been monitoring a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon…hovering over the northern U.S. for the past few days…military… leaders have discussed shooting it out of the sky, according to two U.S. officials & a senior defense official.” https://t.co/KtifZfQoJy

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 2, 2023

“Mr. Biden proposed that the high-altitude balloon be shot down after it was spotted and reported by civilians in a commercial airliner, U.S. officials said. The Pentagon opposed the move, fearing civilian casualties.” https://t.co/WXOEpxiZyF

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 2, 2023

“A senior US defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon, said the Defense Department considered shooting it down over Montana on Wednesday but decided against doing so out of concern for what might happen to the debris.” (Post)

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 2, 2023

I’ll shamelessly plug a piece of mine that opened with military ballooning trivia https://t.co/rraA3a6Y6i pic.twitter.com/aH3UzKVvsq

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 2, 2023

This story gets wilder and wilder. “Earlier Thursday, a senior U.S. official described the balloon to ABC News as the size of three buses, with a technology bay” https://t.co/z8bILQFmAF

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 2, 2023

A supposed picture of the balloon https://t.co/zPpLpJiW5E pic.twitter.com/vaaet3uNGC

— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) February 2, 2023

Obligatorisch:

Also, obligatory:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

#песпатрон

♬ ella and kirans song – ellis :)

The English audio is from AppleTV’s new animated adaptation of Charlie Mackesy’s “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse.” Which was excellent. And for the record it was very dusty in here and I’d just used the deshedding tool on the Floofarina and my allergies were acting up when I watched it.

Open thread!

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report on the day.

We are finalizing our preparations for the Ukraine-EU Summit scheduled for this week. In general, this week will be a week of European integration in every sense of the word. We are expecting the news for Ukraine. We are expecting the decisions from our partners in the European Union that will be in line with the level of cooperation achieved between our institutions and the EU, as well as with our progress. Progress, which is obvious – even despite the full-scale war.

Today I held a long meeting with the international bloc of the government and the Office. We are preparing Ukrainian positions for negotiations with EU representatives.

And very importantly, we are preparing new reforms in Ukraine. Reforms that will change the social, legal and political reality in many ways, making it more human, transparent and effective. But these details will be announced later, based on the results of the relevant meetings.

Today, as in fact every day, I held several meetings with the military and the head of intelligence. We are studying the situation in detail in all major operational directions and in the long term. What the occupier is preparing for, and how we are already responding to Russia’s preparations for a revanche attempt.

Our defense and security forces, the Ukrainian government, our partners – all of us are making efforts to ensure that Russia not only fails in regaining ground on the battlefield, but also loses its last hope for aggression in its revanche attempts. Russia’s defeat will prevent any alternatives to a lasting and reliable peace. I thank all our partners who support this position of Ukraine.

Today I spoke with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau. I briefed him on the situation on the battlefield – on the constant assaults in the Donetsk region, on the situation in the south and the existing threats. We discussed how our defense cooperation could be supplemented. We separately touched upon the issue of sanctions and Russia’s international isolation.

In particular, I am grateful to Justin for understanding our call to the international Olympic bodies that any concessions to a terrorist state are unacceptable. The Olympic movement and international sport in general must be protected from Russia’s usual attempts to politicize sports – we have seen this repeatedly at different times. Now, Russian politicization of sports will inevitably mean justification of terror. This must not be allowed. It is only together that the free world can protect sport from those sports bureaucrats who are willing to turn a blind eye to reality for some reason.

Today I also spoke with Prime Minister of Belgium Alexander De Croo. I thanked him for the powerful defense package that was recently approved. We discussed our cooperation on international platforms, particularly within the UN. We discussed sanctions against Russia and the next sanctions package. We also talked about cooperation in protecting sports and the Olympic movement from propaganda of terror.

And one more thing.

Now there is a certain lull with personnel decisions… But this does not mean that all the necessary steps have been taken. There will be decisions. Those in the system who do not meet the fundamental requirements of the state and society should not linger in their chairs.

I thank each and every one who is defending the state! I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine!

I am grateful for every Ukrainian position held at the front!

I am also grateful for every destroyed position of the enemy!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessments of the situations in Kremenna and Bakhmut:

KREMINNA /1325 UTC 31 JAN/ Two RU offensive probes were undertaken during the period 29-30 JAN. The first, north of Kreminna, was repulsed by UKR east of Terny. RU forces retreated with losses. A second RU thrust on the O-0528 HWY was apparently also broken up by UKR forces. pic.twitter.com/CnTCQLcKvB

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 31, 2023

BAKHMUT HOLDS: Russia has stepped up offensive operations against the city, registering costly gains south of the urban area and threatening important supply routes. But Ukraine’s troops maintain a stubborn and wily defense.https://t.co/lR41mQZx94

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 31, 2023

German howitzer PzH 2000 operating in dawn hours near Bakhmut. It’s highly efficient and accurate and is definitely in heavy demand. Hope to see more soon.

💣 43rd Separate Artillery Brigade pic.twitter.com/PxyGIRjpXF

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 31, 2023

Make it hot!

Destruction of the command post and ammunition of Russians by Ukrainian servicemen of the 28th brigade together with aerial reconnaissance of the 4th brigade https://t.co/wbEjiBMEn1 pic.twitter.com/K0V5Ege9Ks

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 31, 2023

Kharkiv:

Boris the cat proposes to rename the street from Pushkinska to British Street. Lovely. pic.twitter.com/hAGeXZt0ny

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 31, 2023

Kharkiv is also under air raid alert:

Went out to meet a friend when the fourth air raid alarm since morning started. Kharkiv downtown is plunged into darkness. Messages of shelling around Kupiansk began popping up. Russian goal is to terrorize and threaten, but in reality people are only getting stronger. pic.twitter.com/pBTYnqNmM2

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 31, 2023

If you want to try to follow what the Russians are doing where their aviation platforms, Olga Honcharenko in Odesa, Ukraine tracks Russia’s ultra-high frequency aviation comms. As soon as they start squawking, she starts tweeting. When she tweets that a plane is pushing static on its net, then an attack is inbound. For instance, this one from 26 JAN 2023:

Russian strategic bomber combat voice net 9163 kHz USB
Transmitter's static noise is active. Combat mission is coming/ongoing for the time being in silence

— Olga Honcharenko (@olga_pp98) January 26, 2023

Vuldehar is holding!

2/6 The enemy hasn't reduced the number of assaults, however, the quality of assaults has dropped significantly for two reasons:
– weather conditions
– high casualties

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 31, 2023

4/6 a Large number of reserves in the Vuhledar area indicates that the enemy doesn't plan to give up on assaults or attempts to siege Vuhledar.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 31, 2023

6/6 It's likely that the enemy will resume assault as soon as the weather conditions will allow, and losses will be replenished with mobilized and volunteers.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 31, 2023

Moscow:

The creator of Rybar channel who now has a live TV program admits that Russian VDV forces lost 50% of personnel by September last year. pic.twitter.com/erKY6EMqiB

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 31, 2023

Awkward…

For you logistics enthusiasts:

Just as the weapons have changed the course of the war, so has the war impacted the companies that build the arms — and tested their limitations.

Story w/ truly fab team: Steff Chávez @alexandraheal @ian_bott_artist @sam_learner @inari_ta @nikasamborskahttps://t.co/z2wLrSj3xA

— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner) January 31, 2023

The Financial Times also brings us reporting that the EU and its member states are not aligned in regard to Ukraine’s ascension to EU membership:

EU member states have warned Brussels against giving Ukraine an unrealistic expectation of rapidly joining the bloc, ahead of a summit in Kyiv where Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pressing for progress on accession and reconstruction.

Zelenskyy is due to host his EU counterparts Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel this week, where he is expected to lobby for the country’s EU membership, the use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction and a legal mechanism to prosecute Russians for war crimes.

Senior diplomats from EU capitals are concerned that unfeasible Ukrainian expectations — including EU accession by 2026 — have been encouraged rather than tempered by Brussels’ top officials.

“No political leader wants to be on the wrong side of history . . . Nobody wants to be blamed for not doing enough,” said one senior EU diplomat. “So they tell them it’s all possible.”

But while some central and eastern European member states have championed Ukraine’s demands, other northern and western capitals worry about how its large, poor population and vast agricultural sector could be integrated with the EU.

European Council president Michel said this month that “no effort” should be spared to “turn this promise into a reality as fast as we can”. “Ukraine is the EU and the EU is Ukraine,” he told Ukraine’s parliament.

That rhetoric has created expectations in Kyiv that it deserves special privileges and a rapid entry into the bloc. Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal has said he envisages a two-year timetable.

“There is not going to be a fast-track path for Ukraine’s EU membership,” said a second EU diplomat. “There is a risk that rhetoric clashes with reality.”

Multiple member state officials told the FT the commission needed to make clear to Ukraine that there were huge hurdles ahead of beginning formal accession negotiations, which themselves can take a decade or more.

“That gap [between promises and reality] has been growing for some time. And we are getting to the point where it’s too wide,” said a third EU diplomat. “They appear to believe that they can just become a member tomorrow. And that’s obviously not the case.”

“Von der Leyen and Michel might be outcompeting each other on who can show themselves to be more pro-Ukrainian,” said one of the EU diplomats.

This is one of the reasons that you’ve seen Zelenskyy and his administration start cracking down on corruption despite a war going on all around them. That is a good thing in and of itself. However, these various anonymous EU diplomats and leaders seem to be missing a couple of important items. The first is that once the war is over and reconstruction begins, let alone once it is completed, Ukraine is going to be very different in terms of its economy and its infrastructure. I don’t expect that Ukraine will stop being an agricultural powerhouse, but I do expect that a lot of new industries and business sectors will emerge. The second is that as is going to be the case with NATO, the EU is going to need Ukraine more than Ukraine will need the EU. And I’m not talking in terms of Euros in and Euros out. Right now Ukraine is defending all of Europe. Sure, the EU and NATO member states and non-EU and non-NATO member allies and partners like Australia are sending material, equipment, supplies, and money, but where the rubber meats the road the Ukrainians are doing the work. For all the Russian delusional rhetoric that this is a NATO war against Russia, the truth is this is Ukraine being reforged and then tempered in its defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. EU diplomats can hem and haw and tut tut all they want, but the simple truth is Ukraine has placed itself between Scylla and Charybdis to protect the Argo, which in my use of the metaphor is the EU and the rest of Europe.

That’s enough for tonight.

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I'll just stand there and wait F-16 pic.twitter.com/KXf9WsAvxR

— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 31, 2023

And here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Цей танець ніби був створений для мене😁 #shakirachallenge

♬ original sound – ౨ৎ

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This dance seemed to have been created for me 😁 #shakirachallenge

Open thread!

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I am on a working trip all day – first to Mykolaiv, then to Odesa.

Meeting and negotiations with the Danish delegation – with Prime Minister Frederiksen, representatives of the coalition of parties. In particular, with the Danish Minister of Defense and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. They are part of the delegation.

We talked in great detail about Ukraine’s defense needs. About what can help us liberate our territory – our south, our east.

And about our needs in the context of rebuilding Ukraine.

Mykolaiv is a city the reconstruction of which Denmark has taken patronage over. There is a need for projects in the energy sector, infrastructure, social sphere, and production.

An especially sensitive issue for Mykolaiv is water purification and restoration of normal water supply, which was destroyed by the Russian occupiers. There is already a corresponding project with the participation of Denmark, the implementation of which has already begun.

But much more needs to be done to restore and modernize what is the basis of our people’s lives.

Today in Mykolaiv, we visited a hospital where our warriors are being saved after wounds. We thanked the doctors and nurses. We supported our defenders.

This hospital is just one of those examples where modernization and reconstruction are critical.

And I want to thank Denmark, personally Mrs. Prime Minister and other representatives of the Danish Government for their willingness to help Ukraine.

For the willingness to support until the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and until the complete reconstruction of everything necessary for life.

This is the fundamental meaning of our cooperation with partners.

Russian terror must lose everywhere and in everything – both on the battlefield and in the absence of ruins in our country – so that we can rebuild everything and thus prove that freedom is stronger.

Today in Odesa, we spoke in detail about our security and humanitarian initiatives.

Denmark, in particular, has supported our Black Sea export initiative and joined the Grain from Ukraine program.

The fact that we have made substantial progress on food security proves that we can make progress on the other points of our Peace Formula as well. Today we discussed what exactly Denmark’s participation in the implementation of the points of the Peace Formula could be.

Of course, I thanked Denmark for their defense support, for significantly strengthening our artillery, for their willingness to join the tank coalition.

Today we discussed what else we can do to reinforce Ukrainian warriors.

We are also coordinating our actions to strengthen sanctions against Russia. I have also called on Denmark to join our efforts to protect sports structures and the international Olympic movement from discrediting by the attempts of certain representatives of the sports bureaucracy to allow Russian athletes to participate in international competitions.

Of course, I paid special attention to the internal situation in the Mykolaiv and Odesa regions, holding relevant meetings with the military and regional leadership.

It is not only about security, although the security of our south is the first priority, but also about the social situation in the regions, about the economic opportunities available.

By the way, I am grateful to all entrepreneurs and employers in Mykolaiv, Odesa, other cities and communities who, despite everything, keep jobs and pay salaries and taxes. This is your concrete and significant contribution to our country’s ability to defend itself.

Our task to endure is a common task. It is the task of the Defense and Security Forces, our entire state, business, and everyone who works for Ukraine’s victory.

Thank you to everyone who is fighting for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who is helping! Thank you to everyone who is defending Odesa, who is defending Mykolaiv, our entire south and all of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

⚡️Prominent 24-year-old pilot killed on combat mission in Donbas.

The 299th tactical aviation brigade announced that it had lost one of its best officers, Major Danylo Murashko. His plane was shot down by a Russian fighter on Jan. 27.

📷299th tactical aviation brigade/Facebook pic.twitter.com/zKViufje1e

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) January 30, 2023

From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)

The 299th tactical aviation brigade, named after Lieutenant General Vasyl Nikiforov, announced on Jan. 30 that it had lost one of its best officers, 24-year-old Major Danylo Murashko.

The pilot was killed while on a combat mission in the east of Ukraine on Jan. 27. His plane was shot down by a Russian fighter.

According to the brigade, Murashko tried to divert his aircraft so that it didn’t fall on residential buildings in the town of Shabelkivka, Donetsk Oblast. The effort cost him time and made him fly lower, which is why he could not eject safely in the end. Murashko “died like a hero,” the brigade said.

According to the brigade, Murashko went on 141 sorties since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24. He destroyed about 70 Russian armored vehicles, more than 80 cars, and about 30 fuel tanks, and killed about 600 Russian soldiers.

Murashko was awarded the title of the Hero of Ukraine posthumously.

The aviator’s verse from the Navy hymn:

Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)

Speaking of The Kyiv Independent, they made their goal!

Wow, @KyivIndependent has made it!
We’re a small media outlet from Ukraine that has outstanding popular support from readers around the world.https://t.co/ddIRInLAgC pic.twitter.com/pKh88Pa1lU

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 30, 2023

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Kremenna and Bakhmut:

KREMINNA AXIS /1350 UTC 30 JAN/ A growing concentration of RU forces are centered at Kreminna. These RU are assessed to be preparing offensive ops, likely a thrust west on the O-0528 HWY axis. The goal would appear to be the capture of Dibrova, Zarichne and ultimately Lyman. pic.twitter.com/b2t0st16yX

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 30, 2023

BAKHMUT /2040 UTC 30 JAN/ RU units have made significant progress in isolating Bakhmut. Advancing from Soledar, RU forces have crossed the T-05-13 HWY north of Blahodatne. This salient has severed Bakhmut’s principal north-south Line of Communications & Supply (LOCS). pic.twitter.com/nl8KzCQJdP

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 30, 2023

Vuldehar and Avdiivka:

Girkin's update this morning indicates that Russians are not seeing any major success in Vuhledar – the city is heavily defended, and attacking it is very disadvantageous for Wagner. Same with the south of Avdiivka, Russian advance is stalling.https://t.co/HHrAaNJWFh pic.twitter.com/hRE2foymwe

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 30, 2023

Kharkiv:

Russian missile hit a residential building in Kharkiv city center at 11 pm. Massive explosion made me jump out of the bed. The building is heavily damaged and on fire. There are reports of dead and wounded. Bloody terrorists. pic.twitter.com/n3HWcl3T9R

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 29, 2023

Another day, another terrorist attack against civilians, in Kharkiv. russia has impunity to continue their massive terrorism while the world leaders and experts seriously discuss peace deals, off-ramps and how to end the war without russia losing
Photo Anna Chernenko pic.twitter.com/rNRtO1T5AE

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) January 30, 2023

Kherson:

Dreadful massive shelling of Kherson. Three people killed and six injured. Kherson Regional Hospital was shelled twice. You won’t break us. pic.twitter.com/r9A9AXqvDU

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 29, 2023

Moscow:

"Nothing should be considered civilian infrastructure during the war, even hospitals. Anything can be struck" pic.twitter.com/6nkBjAqOgP

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 30, 2023

He seems nice…

DC:

Answering my question "Will the US provide F-16s to Ukraine?" @POTUS said "No".

— Yulya Yarmolenko (@yu_yarmolenko) January 30, 2023

Reporter: "Will the United States provide F-16s to Ukraine"?

Biden: "No." pic.twitter.com/FtSq2EP099

— Dave Brown (@dave_brown24) January 30, 2023

Two quick points on this. The first is that two weeks ago we weren’t going to send Abrams tanks. The second is that this is really the wrong question to ask. The question is whether we will prevent our NATO allies from transferring their F-16s to Ukraine. That question was not asked and it has not been answered.

Australia and France via The Australian Broadcasting Network:

Australia has partnered with France to supply Ukraine with 155-millimetre artillery shells, Defence Minister Richard Marles and his counterpart Sebastien Lecornu have announced.

“Several thousand 155mm shells will be manufactured jointly” by French arms supplier Nexter, France’s Mr Lecornu said, while Mr Marles said the plan would come with a “multi-million-dollar” price tag.

The ammunition supplies fit into “the ongoing level of support both France and Australia are providing Ukraine to make sure Ukraine is able to stay in this conflict and … see it concluded on its own terms,” Mr Marles added.

Mr Lecornu said the aid would be “significant” and “an effort that will be kept up over time”, with the first deliveries slated for the first quarter of 2023.

Mr Marles said there were “some unique capabilities that exist in Australia and some synergies that can be achieved by Australia and France working together” to manufacture the shells.

While Nexter will carry out the manufacturing, Australia will supply gunpowder, Mr Lecornu said.

The two defence ministers met alongside both countries’ foreign ministers, Catherine Colonna and Penny Wong, as France and Australia look to relaunch cooperation.

Much more at the link!

Before we finish up, I just want to briefly respond to – yeah, yeah, brief post that isn’t, briefly respond that won’t be… – to a comment from YY_Sima Qian from last night:

We talked about dissolution of the imperial entity of Russia. I have always thought (& still do) that it is extraordinarily dangerous for outsiders to try to engineer such an outcome. The longer the war goes on, the more likely this will precisely be that outcome even w/o outside interference. The longer the war goes on, the more likely this will be the outcome even if China/US/EU try to keep the Russian Federation whole. The centrifugal forces could prove too strong. I know many will welcome such a development. I am much more torn. I expect the process to be extremely ugly, will likely spill over one way or another into post-war Ukraine (& the Baltic States), & pose its own threat to the world.

Putin’s only out is wearing down Ukraine enough that Ukraine sues for peace on terms that allow him to keep at least some of the gains from the current invasion (such as the land corridor to Crimea). Ukraine isn’t going to give him that out, certainly not any time soon (probably not ever). Even if there is a negotiated peace that allows Putin to plausibly spin as a victory to his domestic audiences, he would still need at least the EU to substantially ease sanctions to mitigate the high risk of ultimate disintegration. The EU may not give him that out at least for some time even after the peace settlement. The Russian Federation’s out is a quick defeat in Ukraine, throw out Putin, withdrawal to lines of control that Ukraine is willing to tolerate, then we will likely significant pressure for sanctions to be eased quickly even if the replacements are not much more unpalatable.

There’s two parts here and I want to start with the second one in the second paragraph. If Putin goes the possible replacements – Patrushev, Prigozhin, someone not really on our radar – are all worse. They won’t necessarily withdraw to a line of control. And if they do, they won’t do it to one that Ukraine would be able to agree to. For Ukraine it is all or nothing. Every bit of occupied Ukraine including Crimea is what they want back. And they’ve made it clear they’re willing to die trying to achieve that goal.

The other part, the first one in the first paragraph, is a major strategic concern. I’m of the professional opinion that the only way Russia holds together at this point is if it is done by force. I think the process has already begun. The periphery of Russia’s sphere of influence – Armenia, Azerbaijan, the stans – are all beginning the process of separation. I expect that the ethnic minority republics, places like Dagestan and Tyvan, will eventually begin a similar process of separation. I don’t think this can be stopped. Managed and mitigated yes, but not stopped.

That’s enough for tonight.

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@patron__dsns

Поїхав я у відрядження, називається… #песпатрон

♬ sonido original – juli cremaschi

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I went on a business trip, it’s called… #pespatron

Open thread!