I hope everyone has had a lovely day, although no one is having a better day than meth heads, thanks to Donald Trump:
U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the 50% tariff on copper imports, which he had announced the previous day, will take effect on Aug. 1.
The decision was made after he received a national security assessment, Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
“I am announcing a 50% TARIFF on Copper, effective August 1, 2025, after receiving a robust NATIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT,” Trump wrote.
Why are we putting tariffs on things we either can’t produce or produce enough of here in the US? I don’t know. I’m not a fucking idiot a very stable business genius.
I was talking to a friend earlier, and she said that basically she just wished she were dumber, because knowing things is a real emotional burden right now. And she’s right, because we are living in a golden age for very stupid people. If you have little education and don’t know much but have really strong opinions and aggression issues, now is your fucking time to shine. It will never get better for highly motivated stupid people than it is right now:
As more than a hundred fatalities have been confirmed in Texas flash floods and some 170 remain missing, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has both denied that DOGE cuts to the National Weather Service played a role in the tragedy and also focused on the importance of timely and effective communications about extreme weather events, which she says wasn’t up to par. Coverage of the Texas flash flood calamity has made clear that it’s not just the work of forecasters that is critical. You can have a timely and accurate forecast but it does little good if it isn’t effectively communicated to local authorities in the effected areas. That “last mile” communication is critical and it seems like there were breakdowns on that front both with county officials and possibly on the National Weather Service side, where a senior position in charge of liaising with local officials was vacant at the time of the floods. But even as the rescue workers were searching for bodies in Texas on Tuesday, DHS canceled a $3 million grant aimed at ensuring precisely those kinds of “last mile” communications.
The grant was to something called New York’s Mesonet, and the story goes back a decade, to a series of extreme weather events which caused billions of dollars of damage and led to the loss of at least 60 lives in New York state. New York’s Mesonet is a series of towers around the state to collect accurate and localized data.
Two years ago, DHS awarded a $3 million grant for something called the “Empower Project,” which planned to leverage New York’s Mesonet data to “build a next-generation scalable decision-support tool suite for the emergency management enterprise.” What Empower was meant to do was coordinate disaster response in extreme weather events and specifically make sure there was effective “last mile” communications between forecasters, state disaster officials and local officials on the ground in specific areas. In other words, it aimed at improving precisely the kind of “last mile” coordination and communication that fell short in Texas. If locals officials aren’t notified effectively and on time, it doesn’t matter how great the data collection towers are.
The only consolation to any of this shit going on is that a lot of these Republicans are young enough they will have to suffer the consequences of their own fucking stupidity.
Speaking of suffering the consequences of Republican stupidity, we are all about to take it in the wallet:
The June CPI, due out next week, also is expected to be the “turning point” where the steeply higher effective tariff rate will make a bigger mark on overall inflation, said Wells Fargo’s Cervi, noting expected gains in the closely watched core goods category (which excludes gas and food).
“The core goods side will start to leg up higher because of this tariff pass-through starting to take effect,” she said.
Wells Fargo expects that the overall CPI could peak at 2.9% later this year (in part because of the further disinflationary effects from the services side).
But even if inflationary impacts are “modest,” the effects on Americans could cut deeper, said Schipper, from the University of St. Thomas.
“Right now, I am less concerned about inflation building on itself,” Schipper said. “There’s still a cost to consumers that are struggling.”
And it’s a double-edged sword:
Layoffs may not be mounting, but it’s getting harder to find a job in a labor market where hiring is “anemic” as tariff-driven economic uncertainty has put a chill on some employers.
New data released Thursday showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits — considered a proxy for layoffs — fell last week. However, the number of recurring claims made by people who already have filed for unemployment rose to their highest level since November 2021.
There were an estimated 227,000 first-time applications for unemployment insurance made during the week that ended on July 5. That’s down 5,000 claims from the prior week.
Economists were expecting claims to move higher to 238,000, according to FactSet.
The US labor market has cooled significantly during the past year, and the pullback in job growth has largely been attributed to employers reining in hiring rather than conducting mass layoffs.
That trend, however, has meant that it’s taken longer for unemployed people to find work. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received jobless benefits for at least one week, once again but up against three-and-a-half-year highs.
I know and think it is crazy, but the thing is that so much about people’s perceptions about the economy is just a vibe. And when people start to feel pain in their wallet, and also start to hear from friends about how they can’t get a job or their kids are looking for work and no one is hiring, and intentionally or not, tighten their own wallets.
I was thinking the other day about leading indicators of economic woe that no one really talks about- I mean there is the stripper index, which is hilarious if you actually think about it, but there has to be some genius out there like Michael Burry who has some niche products that he has figured out are leading indicators of a recession. Like maybe dips in sales of birdseed. Or an increase in the sale of canning jars and lids. I dunno. What do you think?
This is one of those stories that snaps you back to our grim reality because, if you are like me, you will spend the entire time reading it with the thought “I can’t fucking believe we’re even debating this” in the back of your head:
A federal judge on Thursday blocked the Trump administration from enforcing a contentious executive order ending birthright citizenship after certifying a lawsuit as a class action, effectively the only way he could impose such a far-reaching limit after a Supreme Court ruling last month.
Ruling from the bench, Judge Joseph N. Laplante of the U.S. District Court for the District of New Hampshire said his decision applied nationwide to babies who would have been subject to the executive order, which included the children of undocumented parents and those born to academics in the United States on student visas, on or after Feb. 20.
The Trump administration has fought to challenge the longstanding law, laid out in the Constitution, that people born in the United States are automatically citizens, regardless of their parents’ immigration status. Judge Laplante’s order reignites a legal standoff that has been underway since the beginning of President Trump’s second term.
These stupid, evil, racist motherfuckers.
Breyana’s parents are out of town so she is staying the night and sleeping on the couch downstairs because she fell in a hole and sprained her ankle and currently has a little hitch in her giddy-up. We went to a reasonably decent sub shop in Steubenville and got subs, and then she picked up a bunch of crap to snack on, and we are going to go watch the next to last installment of Mission Impossible. Take care.
Baud
I was hoping you would chastise us again.
CatRadio
Great summary, thanks. Enjoy your Breyana visit!
Other MJS
If he imposes tariffs over 100%, people will pay us to take their stuff. Winning bigly!
Spanky
@Baud: What is this? Castle Anthrax?
Baud
XeckyGilchrist
Jesus! Don’t say stuff like this. Remember “Peak Wingnut?”
Baud
@XeckyGilchrist:
No, John is right. In the future, the stupid motivated people will be replaced by AI. This is their Golden Age.
bjacques
@Other MJS:
[chuckles in Ea Nasir]
XeckyGilchrist
@Baud: That is a good point but only stands until the power grid fails.
Bill Arnold
Geeky NOAA forecast page, now one of my favorites:
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook – Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
suzanne
I have heard that nail polish is one of these, as more people do their nails at home.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Meth heads – that’s exactly where my mind went too. WTF
Doc Sardonic
Here is an indicator to watch, look at items that are bought for DIY food items such as bread. Just did something that I have never done in my lifetime, bought a 10lb bag of bread flour and I think a pound of yeast to start home baking bread. Flour I never buy more than a 1 or 2 pound bag, for cooking because I don’t bake, and in the past if I bought more than three packets of yeast there was alcohol making going on.
Martin
ICE standoff in Camarillo is ongoing. Camarillo is just west of LA. Ventura county sheriff, Natl Guard all there. 10 ICE vans. Decent number of protesters. Road is shut down. They are certainly making the feds deploy a lot of resources relative to how many arrests they will get and I think that’s a worthwhile overall strategy – drive the cost of each deportation way up, slow it down, exhaust their resources.
They’re raiding what I think is a tomato packaging plant, workers sitting outside being watched by agents waiting to be loaded into the vans.
This is Julia Brownlees district.
drdavechemist
As to leading economic indicators, the only one I have experience with is seasonal. My Christmas caroling group will brazenly walk into a bar or restaurant and offer to entertain the patrons after we’ve performed somewhere else. In many years, that will get us a round of appetizers or drinks, either from the management or a generous patron, but in 2007 we got doodly-squat, and we all know what happened in 2008. Last December was pretty good, but 47 hadn’t yet gone off on his tariff nonsense, so I don’t have high hopes for December 2025.
Baud
Jay
bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3ltngczeqhk2y
raven
@Martin: We’re having our house painted and the guys left for lunch and didn’t come back. It was 7pm so I texted their boss and, of course, they showed back up. I was worried they got popped..
raven
@Baud: Like when she said we’d LOVE Greta Van Susteren??
Baud
@raven:
Maybe she’ll bring her back.
Baud
@Martin:
Baud
Food for thought.
Melancholy Jaques
@Martin:
Kinda curious to know who is the owner of that tomato processing plant.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Wowser!
Ohio Mom
@Martin: That’s a heartening story, but I have trouble believing anything can exhaust ICE’s resources. I think Trump will always find more money for them.
MagdaInBlack
Cannabis grower.
@Martin:
desertsun.com/story/news/nation/california/2025/07/10/immigration-raid-near-ventura-county-farm-sets…
JoyceH
@Baud:
Uhhhhh – corporate bosses are controlling Rachel Maddow’s voice? Geez, what would she be saying if she really cut loose? Are they controlling Lawrence O’Donnell? He’s flat out pointing out Trump’s worsening dementia.
JoyceH
Did she get an x-ray? I thought I had a sprained ankle and walked around it for ten days before I learned that I’d fractured my fibula.
Baud
@JoyceH:
Who knows? That’s probably that poster’s take. RM is probably doing it for the money, although it’s possible she has some ideas she wants to explore.
sab
We had a three hour power failure. We have a generator so okay. But cable went out- they don’t have generators.
Husband kind of went nuts, mostly about the air conditioner, which was working fine. He thought it wasn’t working (we have a generator) when it was, so I had to lower the temperature to get the air conditioner to kick in. It did. Then I raised it again because I will not wear a sweatshirt inside when it is hot outside. He just wanted to yell at our contractor who sold us all our stuff this year (air conditioner, generator, boiler) because they don’t jump fast enough when he calls. I share his frustration but I also understand their choices.
I was not so understanding last winter when our brand new boiler went out because of a tiny fuse which they had no replacement for. Christmas to New Years with no heat.
But spouse still shouldn’t be calling wolf. Air conditioner still works even if it kicks on at one degree higher than he expected.
Power out today so he was OMG we aren’t getting weather alerts. So I sent him outside on the front porch with his battery operated radio and his dog. Sad old guy and more sad dog on the front porch until the generator turned off so we had normal power and internet!!
It was raining so our sugarplum fairy dog couldn’t leave the porch for fear of melting. Pitbulls are sensitive that way. They melt in the rain.
The Audacity of Krope
@JoyceH: We already knew the corporate bosses at MSNBC have no problem with ageism or remote non-interactive diagnostics.
Geminid
@suzanne: I read once that RV sales were a leading indicator of recessions and recoveries. Also, men’s underwear sales.
Now I think I oughta find three more and create the Geminid Index, try to monetize it.
Martin
Some other in-the weeds economic indicators. This goes back 2023 but isn’t improving – when the fed started raising the prime rate, credit card rates skyrocketed from an average of 16% to 23%. The prime rate going up was probably the trigger but one theory for why they went up so much is that when they raise rates, they run the new rate model and see how much defaults (charge off rate) will go up due to that, and then have to make up for the default which causes them to raise them more, and so on. This was one of the ‘economy is bad’ indicators that a lot of people missed because peoples costs on prior borrowing went up by 50% at a time when their overall revolving debt was already at record highs. That cost of debt is now extremely high with signs that consumers are having trouble getting ahead of payments. The average American now needs to work about 3 weeks just to cover their credit card interest and the last two times it was this high was before the 2000 dotcom bust and the financial crisis. If nothing else it’s a bad spot to have to weather other economic problems from. The charge off rate isn’t record high or anything but it’s not been this high since the financial crisis. But that’s also suppressing consumer spending because the debt service is high.
In other terms, the average amount of credit card debt consumers are paying now is about $3500 per year (just interest, not principal), compared to $2000 per year in 2023. That’s about 5% of median wages just to pay for credit card debt where it had been about 3%. This is not a gradual climb – it goes straight up – banks can jack your rates way faster than you can buy stuff, and they did. It didn’t show up in the GDP numbers because nothing was bought – it’s just interest.
There’s also a trend where consumer spending hasn’t been keeping pace with the historical rate because wages haven’t kept up. Some spending went up because it went to debt, but it’s not sustainable, especially into banks raising rates so much. So the ability of consumers to keep the economy going is really stalling out. Low unemployment has helped. Trade has helped. But both of those are now suffering. There’s not a lot of consumer slack in the economy.
Anecdotally my son’s business closed last week due to declining sales with their customers. That’s rippled across Silicon Valley as the effect of tariff uncertainty is making it impossible to do planning. A lot of places closed waiting for the July 9 tariff deadline to settle things, which of course it didn’t. Based on what my son has been told the general consensus is to move all production that can be tariffed out of the US, keep the IP work that can’t be tariffed in the US, and then they only need to deal with the tariff cost to consumers rather than across the entire supply chain because that way worst case consumer spending drops due to the tariff, but they can lose the whole business if components get trapped behind some insane rate.
Thankfully my son is on the IP side of the business, but you have trillion dollar businesses with no strategic plan because some lunatic won’t stop rewriting the rules arbitrarily. But they’re out of backstock of finished goods and components, the closures were to buy time to avoid layoffs in the hopes that July 9 would let them plan, but word going around is the layoffs are coming. Intel and Microsoft have already started. They’re not even the ones most exposed.
Martin
@raven: Yeah crews here won’t call you back out of fear it’s ICE trying to locate them. If you want to hire them, you gotta find them and talk face to face.
I see some restaurants are turning into speakeasy’s so they can check to see if customers are ICE or not before letting them in.
Sister Golden Bear
I’m gonna start watering my garden with Brawndo in hopes it’ll make me dumberer. Ignorance is bliss, amirite.
sab
@Geminid: We live beside railroad tracks. Our meighbors say train traffice reflects the oversll economy.
Our line runs West Virginia to Great Lakes ( Lake Erie). It has been busy. Beating the tariffs? Gravel for track maintenance?
Lots of folks I know have been laid off because DOGE blew up their jobs, so I don’t think train traffic now is indicative of the economy going forward.
Martin
@Baud: Between MSNBC getting spun out of Comcast and Medhi Hasan appearing to do pretty well with his network after getting fired by MSNBC, seems like a sensible idea. She can probably pull something pretty solid together.
Martin
@Melancholy Jaques: I’m almost positive it’s this farm from the video.
Martin
@Martin: Oh, that was totally the wrong link from the tab that found the wrong farm.
Here’s the correct link.
Sister Golden Bear
@Martin: It’s now a marijuana grow site that bought out the tomato farm.
JetsamPool
Why yes, I did buy canning jar lids over the winter, partly because I want to be able to can some summer produce and partly because I expected prices to go up. As for other indicators, I’ve seen a handful of articles on Allrecipes featuring Depression-era recipes. I guess I’m not the only one worried.
Martin
@Sister Golden Bear: Ah. Well, feds have a bit more justification in that case.
Kind of makes sense – pretty similar labor needs, better revenue per acre to pay for them.
Sure Lurkalot
@sab: I’m not sure if you meant this saga to amuse but you got a chuckle out of me and these days I have zero sense of humor. Thanks!
MagdaInBlack
@Sister Golden Bear: It’s also Canadian and trades on a Canadian stock exchange. Hmmm..
Glass House Farms.
tokyokie
Anybody who fits the latter descriptor, by definition is the former two.
Spanky
I’ve had better. I got home from the hospital a couple of hours ago after having this done. ?Thank fsm for anesthesia and oxycodone (I’ll stop that tomorrow).
I thought a lot today about gin & tonic’s little ski mishap, and thinking this ain’t nuthin, comparatively.
Sure Lurkalot
@JoyceH: I haven’t watched MSNBC for a couple of years now. Too many republicans, especially ones who spout how all the bad started with Trump.
I think an independent Maddow could be good. I liked her Ultra podcast a bunch.
sab
@Sure Lurkalot:
I was amused once he stopped trying to piss off the air conditioner guys.
Power out, mild rain so plants happy.
Old guy and dog on porch in mild weather listening to sports radio. They were happy.
What’s the problem?
sab
@Sure Lurkalot: Also too, our pitbull really does think she will melt in the rain.
ETA Either she is a bad witch (she is not) or she is a sugarplum fairy, or she is a rain adverse dog.
I am going with fairy.
TONYG
A big problem, as always, is the incredible stupidity, bigotry and cruelty of approximately half the people in the country. When (not if) the economy crashes because of Trump’s tariffs and mass deportations, half of the people who bother to vote will blame … black people, Mexicans, transgender people or whoever the hell else the right-wing media tells them to hate.
Martin
“U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the 50% tariff on copper imports, which he had announced the previous day, will take effect on Aug. 1.”
I just realized this should be an economic boon for the Brotherhood of Florida Foreclosed Home Pipestrippers.
Jay
@sab:
Some are, some aren’t. Casey never met a snowstorm, rainstorm, ditch, puddle, swamp or mud bath that she didn’t love. But she didn’t like to swim.
sab
@TONYG: I think only a third are horrible psychopaths. Another third are Democrats. The other third are just too busy or distracted to care about politics.
If you were not into politics at all, would you be watching Donald Trump at all? My guess is no. He is awful and annoying. So you are not following anything he does, his antics or his legislation or his governing. So far in your life politics didn’t make much difference. If you are not following news at all, why would you think this year is different?
Suzanne
@Spanky: Oh man. I hope you’re hangin’ in there okay.
currawong
My first thought, when I saw the tariff announcement of copper was ‘there goes the railway signalling’. The price of copper in the US is going to soar and the theft of copper infrastructure wil soar with it. good luck with any copper wiring out in the open.
sab
@Jay: Pitbulls have big bodies, big heads, tiny feet and short legs and necks. They are meant to wade, not swim. Swimming they might drown.
Labrador retrievers have longish necks, and big webbed feet. They are meant to swim and they are good at it. They can steer themselves with those big fat tails.
Our pitbull did almost drown when some moron tossed her into a river. She was rescued.
Our lab was tossed into another river, and he just paddled away.
Baud
@sab:
Why the hell are people where you live throwing dogs into rivers?
MagdaInBlack
@sab: My estimator at work has a 3 y/o pit she brings to work when boss isn’t there and we have no customers. I have never spent any time around one before, and this one, I swear, is the sweetest dog I have ever met. Her name is Blue and she is my un-official therapy pooch. I just enjoy her that much =-)
Rusty
@Ohio Mom: It’s about creating friction, because friction slows down and wears out. Don’t make this easy for them. Make them fight every step and tire themselves out.
sab
@Baud: My dogs are all rescues from bad homes. We do better.
Baud
@sab:
You’re an angel.
Martin
@Baud: When the floods come the children can ride them to safety.
sab
@MagdaInBlack: My pit is also one of the sweetist dogs ever. Her only defect is she tends to drool on people she loves.
She loves us. She loves our seven cats, and five of them love her back. She loves visitors. She loves the neighbors.
Melancholy Jaques
@Martin:
It seems like we should be hearing about and from the owners of places where unauthorized residents are working. They are violating the law, if memory serves.
Baud
Timill
@Baud: No cows, so no cow-tipping…
sab
@Baud: Not on line am I an angel. There I am not a nice person. I was a complete and utter asshole to Watergirl last week when she made a posting error. Apologies can’t fix the inexcusable.
My dogs and cats like me because they have seen so much worse.
Gin & Tonic
“liaising”
People who use this “word” should be shot on sight.
MagdaInBlack
@sab: This dog is bi-lingual. My estimator said she had to teach her Spanish, else estimators parents could not communicate with her. I’m in awe. This dog speaks more languages than me =-)
Sister Golden Bear
@MagdaInBlack:
🎶 Blame Canada! Blame Canada! 🎵
sab
@Baud: God these people are evil. Such a tiny minority of harmless people.
Anything that works in elections. I had thought ( since they have been screaming that at me for forty years) that they were against big government in our lives.
I happen to have a trans niece, and a grandchild transnephew. Lovely caring people we love.
Otherwise I hadn’t thought they were bothering anyone other than an occassional fifth place sore loser track person.
Martin
@Melancholy Jaques: Well, they’re pretty much all republicans, so I’ll let you carry the two on that math.
MagdaInBlack
@Sister Golden Bear: I confess I saw that movie on a date.
NotMax
Poked around the Prime Days sale and did find some bargains. Kept the total price of the few purchases to an quite acceptably low figure.’
BTW, for those who weren’t aware of it, USPS is raising the cost of postage on packages by 9% beginning on Monday.
Sister Golden Bear
@Baud: We expected this. It’s part of their plan to criminalize trans healthcare and threaten to prosecute doctors, clinics and hospitals that offer it. (Same play as for abortion.) And they’ll expanded it to include all trans healthcare regardless of age
Expect to see anti-abortion-style bounty hunting lawsuits soon.
planetjanet
@Baud:
Snopes says false.
New Rachel Maddow network?
NotMax
@Timill
Reminded of frog giggin’.
;)
sab
@MagdaInBlack: I had a dog who knew Spanish. Lovely dog sad story. He got loose somehow in a parking lot in Las Vegas NV. We could tell he came from a loving home. We ran ads everywhere. A year later when I had adopted him, I was across the street talking to my new Puerto Rican neighbor. He said sientete to my dog and my dog sat instantly. We had never run any ads in Spanish speaking papers. Never occurred to us that he was hispanic. He was just a chow chow mix.
My ex adored him and got him and the golden retrievers in the divorce. I got the german shepherd and the lab.
Jay
@sab:
Casey was a pitbull.
She wasn’t adverse to swimming when we first got her, but one of her favorite things in the world was to chase Birds on the mud flats of the Lower Pitt River at low tide. The mud flats have little riffles crossing them as the tide falls and Casey would tear across them like a Redneck 4×4 on a mud bog after the birds.
Then, one day, she went tearing after the birds, ripped up half a dozen riffles, and,……………………………. then hit a channel at speed.
Remember the Wide World of Sports intro with the speedboats flipping over and skipping across the water like a flat stone.
Yeah, it was like that.
She made it out to the other side of the channel, but I couldn’t call her back.
So, in March, I had to walk out across the mud flats, wade the channel, pick her up in my arms and carry her back. After that, for years she wouldn’t swim, just wade.
Jackie
@Baud:
I saw that. I sincerely hope HIPAA laws prevail!
Geminid
@Martin: There are plenty of poultry processing plants in Rockingham County, in the Shenendoah Valley west of me. ICE could find plenty of migrants if they raided those plants. They wouldn’t have to worry about protesters either; it’s a very conservative area.
I have hunch they won’t though. I bet Ben Cline, the the area’s Republican Reprentative, has been running interference for the owners since before Trump was inaugurated. Protecting business interests is part of a 6th CD Republican’s job, and those poultry plant owners especially need protection. These are regional and national corporations, and they know what strings to pull, and the value of a helpful Congressman.
Ben Cline succeeded Bob Goodlatte in 2018. Goodlatte had held the seat for 22 years and finished as the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee. Goodlatte was my Congressman when I lived in yhe Valley, so I looked up his biography. It turned out he was an immigration lawyer before he entered Congress, and my guess is his practice was on the employer side. I expect it paid well.
Now I wonder if Bob Goodlatte got back into the practice of law when he retired. He’d be extra valuable now.
sab
@Jay: I am so glad you could rescue her. Big dogs, little feet.
sab
@Jackie: No laws prevail against the unitary executive with this Supreme Court. They really don’t understand checks and balances and separation of power. All they understand is Republicans v Democrats.
Jay
@sab:
Riley Gaines, tied for 5th in a 200 meter swimming race. Got the Trans girl, Leah Thomas stripped of medals, including her 500 meter gold medal, all her other achievements and kicked off the team, is now still only 5th and regularly read for filth on social media.
Leah Thomas got underbussed by World Aquatics and U Penn. Gutless cowards.
But she’s working the wingnut grift.
Argiope
@Sister Golden Bear: Anecdotally, more of my students than ever before are telling me they plan to expand their practice scope to include gender affirming care and/or abortion. There are a lot of nurses pissed off about what they rightly perceive as government overreach who are actively seeking ways to stick it to the man. My feeling is that, like medication abortion, our best way forward is to stop having specialists do gender affirming hormones and make it something anyone who knows enough to prescribe menopause therapy or birth control can do. In other words: most primary care clinicians.
Booger
@Geminid: Central Virginia seems to have a limitless supply of mediocre white Republicans to send to the House. So happy to have Subramanyam after a long string of execrable reps going back to Eric Cantor.
We’ve been fortunate to hang on to Warner and Kaine on the Senate side.
sab
We were forced by Mom to belong to a swim club as kids. My older sister thrived there. I just participated.
One morning the coach had my big sister and me swim beside each other. My sister knew it was a race. She was three years older. I just paddled along. She won. I didn’t much care until the other kids teased and she got full of herself. It damaged our relationship for years. I never trusted her again.
That night, talking to Mom about it, she said “Of course she won. Her feet are so much bigger than yours it’s almost like she had paddles.” Nasty of Mom but I loved her for the shared sore losing.
dww44
@JoyceH: My theory is that her maybe having a truly independent news outlet grants her freedom and opportunities that she can never get within a for profit corporate structure.
And I don’t believe the network’s abrupt dismissal of Joy Reid a few months back sat well with her.
Jay
bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3ltnifzsfzc2b
Jay
bsky.app/profile/latimes.com/post/3ltnehzin7v2e
Marc
As nicely as I can put it for all of you dog lovers, I usually visit Lake Merritt Park (apparently the first bird sanctuary in the US) on a daily basis. We have huge flocks of Canadian Geese that fly through here tis time of year on the way to Canada (I assume). Last Friday I noticed a fresh goose carcass with it’s side ripped open (obvious sign of dog attack) that just happened to be about to be about 20 yards away from a family that has pitbull puppies for sale in a temporary enclosure. I normally have no problem with dogs, but there were an awful lot of people sitting around on the grass, and of course no one knew anything about what happened (I asked). By Sunday all of the geese had disappeared from the east side of the lake (where this happened). The birds are smarter than I thought.
Kayla Rudbek
When fewer people are starting businesses, the trademark filings go down
Geminid
@Jay: I wonder if you saw this Middle East Eye by Ragip Soylu, titled:
The article was published about a week ago, but it concerns some “leaked” minutes of an April meeting between Ocalan and politicians from the Kurdish-based DEM Party. The minutes cover only part of the meeting, where he discussed regional politics and conflicts; some interesting stuff.
Ocalan also talked about times the Israeli Mossad tried to recruit him back in the day. He passed on the partnership offers.
This link might work. If it doesn’t, I blame WordPress.
https://ww middleeasteye.net/news/pkks-ocalan-no-israeli-dominance-through-kur
Well, that sure ain’t gonna work. I’ll try it again in a reply to this comment. Easy to look up though through Middle East Eye.
YY_Sima Qian
Raising the cost of raw material inputs & intermediate goods, as well as the cost of capital goods that fill out manufacturing plants, plus not training enough of the STEM human capital to staff the factories & driving away much of the STEM human capital that do exist, will be sure to ignite the manufacturing renaissance in the US.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Geminid:
Probably no coincidence that
GestapoICE raids target blue economic areas, not red ones.Geminid
@Geminid: The Ragip Soylu article about Abdullah Ocalan’s remarks:
middleeasteye.net/news/pkks-ocalan-no-israeli-dominance-through-kurds
Martin
@Geminid: They raided a Nebraska meatpacking plant not too long ago. They don’t seem to have much control from the top – just a set of quotas to hit which I doubt ICE middle management are going to care about the political impact on some house member. This isn’t Mitch McConnells party any more.
I don’t think we’ll see management prosecuted because Pam will quash all that shit, but I don’t think Stephen Miller cares about some house backbencher getting heat.
Martin
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: So, I suspect the blue state raids are the ones they’re sending camera crews along with, but we know they’re doing raids in Florida and Texas, just more quietly. No liberal tear benefits in those states.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Martin:
I’d be curious if we have any systematic data (doubtful) showing any patterns per my comment above.
That being said, “backbenchers getting heat” is an interesting perspective cuz it’s pretty clear that yeah, they don’t care cuz there are shit tons of other potential backbenchers willing to go ever further right in order to take their place.
Jay
@Geminid:
Link did not work, but I found the article. Interesting reading of a sort. Israel and the US baked both the Iranian Kurds and the Iraqi Kurds back in the day, then dumped them when they got the concessions they wanted from the Shah and Abd al-Karim Qasim.
NotMax
FYI.
Nettoyeur
@Geminid: Try the Stripper and Lipstick Indices. Stripper tips have been off in recent months, and lipstick sales could be heading up. Historically, both of these are advance signs of recession.
RaflW
Several weeks ago, I bought a vintage 1972 AMF Sunfish sailboat. One owner – a creampuff! Garaged unless actively being sailed. Pretty sure it’s still the original 1972 Dacron sail, even. Original mahogany daggerboard and tiller.
This afternoon was the shakedown cruise. Lasted about 15 mins before a small rope on the lower boom gave out. Garaged doesn’t stop dry rot.
Still, it was super fun to give it a whirl. I got my Boy Scout sailing merit badge in 1978 or ’79 at a Scout Camp in Goshen, VA. Whole fleet of Sunfish and we got to sail twice a day for probably 90 mins or 2 hrs per session, for like 6 days? Bliss.
I did get to relive that about 15 years ago when BF and I did three one week UU summer camps over three summers, and they had 3-4 sunfish available. But having my own? Awesome.
(The one owner/seller is named Cherrie. So the boat has “Cher’s Rig” in 4″ tall white letters stuck very firmly on the kelly green forward deck. I want to see if I can try that hairdryer trick to loosen the adhesive and remove “Rig” and the apostrophe & s. It’s supposedly bad luck to rename a sailboat. I feel like just calling her Cher is perfect, though! :) )
Jay
bellingcat.com/news/2025/07/08/masked-armed-and-forceful-finding-patterns-in-los-angeles-immigration…
ICE violently arrested a 71 year old Grandmother, in LA, today.
Geminid
@Martin: We’ll see. Those Rockingham County poultry plants are obvious targets. If ICE doesn’t get to them this year I’d say the fix is in. Maybe they’ll wait for Thanksgiving though, so all the turkeys get shipped.
Nettoyeur
@currawong: Good ole boys shoot down sections of overhead power cable to sell the copper They are gonna thrive
Eolirin
Things are going to start getting bad fast now.
I hope the rest of the democratic world can figure out a way to contain the damage. Buy some time for us to maybe find a way to get our shit together or at least build up the infrastructure they need to go it without us without handing the world over to autocracies
I’m not terribly optimistic though.
Sister Golden Bear
@Argiope: Good to hear. And I’d love to see gender affirming hormones be widely available to healthcare professionals. Overseeing someone taking them isn’t rocket surgery, and since they’re the exact same hormones prescribed to cis people, the effects are predictable and well-known.
Geminid
@Nettoyeur: All right! One more, and I’ll have the Five Point Geminid Index. Then I’ll just have to figure out how to monetize it.
NotMax
Dolt also announced a new tariff of an additional 35% for Canadian exports to the U.S.
Eolirin
@NotMax: The US economy cannot survive 3 and a half more years of this.
Sister Golden Bear
@Geminid: I’m not sure they even need a fix. As much as it’s driven by racism, it’s also driven by a strong desire to fuck over blue states—especially California—and force them to bend the knee. So they’re gonna definitely focus on California—especially LA—until the twelfth of never before they do much in red states.
Jay
@NotMax:
It may or may not include USMCA covered items, it is unclear at this point.
If USMCA covered items are excluded from the “new tariffs (FFS)”, its a frog fart.
Sister Golden Bear
@Eolirin: The
marketmad tyrant can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.Eolirin
@YY_Sima Qian: That’s okay, they’re also in the process of making it so no one can afford to buy any of those goods either.
Eolirin
@Sister Golden Bear: My concern is that he can remain irrational longer than we can remain breathing. :p
WTFGhost
@Timill: What is the proper tip for a cow? 15%? 20%? I’ve seen some middle-of-the-roaders who say “18%” like it’s some kind of compromise, but in Texas, they’d say “the middle of the road is for dead armadillos” – and soon, dead children who washed up after the flooding, but, you can’t blame members of the Grumpy Old Peckerheads party for that.
They can between friends, and people of good will, or, they can repair things so as you can’t really see the problem any longer. Trust me: beating up on yourself rarely does any good. (Now, if you have a partner, who’s okay with beating you… but that’s a completely different subject.)
It’s a lesson I had to learn – just because I have PTSD, and a painful moment can reverberate for me, for years, even decades, well… other people are better at repairing their emotions, because they don’t have an entire lifetime of (in my case) being bullied for any teensy harm done.
Imma shut up now, in case I’m babbling badly.
@Gin & Tonic: I don’t care if they’re on site or off site, I think they should be shot! Okay, with spitballs, or something irritating but not as gross, but, you get the idea!
@TONYG: We can hope the utter depravity, naked hatred, and poisonous levels of mean, will make these people as grossed out as a tongue depressor, that feels like one of those giant shoehorns, *ALL* the way on the back of the tongue.
Just so it happens while they’re not in the polling booth, because, ew, gross.
NotMax
@Jay
Unclear is S.O.P. when it comes to trade these days.
Geminid
@Jay: There is lot going on now. Ocalan met with a delegation of DEM leaders on Monday, and recorded a statement on video with them standing behind him. The Clash Report site posted it, and I imagine it got plenty of coverage in Turkish media.
Turkish President met with the DEM leaders two days later.
On Friday, there’s ceremony scheduled in Sulemeiniya, northern Iraq, where 30 PKK fighters are to lay down their arms in a symbolic gesture. And Erdogan is supposed to deliver a “major speech” on the peace process this Saturday.
NotMax
All those letters sent to countries about U.S. trade policy? No way Dolt 47 signed them all. Hasn’t been reported that I’ve seen but must have been signed by autopen.
George
There is a federal raid that has turned into a standoff in California. It is on Youtube, but I’m not sure how to post the link. Here’s a try:
youtube.com/watch?v=HpuUvGL8Y1E
dnfree
@Spanky: Wow, I wonder if that’s what I have. Newish pain at base of thumb like that image. At my age there’s always something new. Hope you feel better soon.
Jackie
Anybody have any idea about this?
I caught a brief glimpse of “contemplating sanctions” before I was cut off by the paywall. FFOTUS isn’t going to “severely punish” Putin.
Martin
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: I’d be curious too, but note the they’re building new facilities in FL and TX, not in CA. And the federal government literally owns half the land in CA – they have loads of places they could build and as far as I know they aren’t. That suggests to me that they’re expecting plenty of pickups in other parts of the country.
I will also note that the CA raids are going to be the most visible because so far we’ve been among the most visible with the pushback. The raid doesn’t get the coverage, the standoff gets the coverage. The raid today protesters blocked off the road and kettled law enforcement. There were I think 5 helicopters there. There was a lot to see just to pick up a couple dozen people. Meanwhile the Nebraska raid netted I think 60 people and I only saw coverage after the owner was interviewed about it – nothing from the day itself. I don’t know if this is local bias in my feeds but I get live coverage of raids here in CA all the time. This raid had at least 3 streams to pick from and there was probably about half a dozen people with press identification.
We saw the story out of MA i think it was, and one out of MO, so it’s happening elsewhere, but there’s only so much bandwith to report on this stuff on MSNBC and they’re probably going to be biased toward CA because they know that’s where the longer bigger story is going to be. If there’s a situation where protesters overwhelm ICE (which kind of did happen in Bell a few weeks ago – local fire truck physical pushed an ICE vehicle out of town after residents surrounded them.) it’s probably going to be here, and that’s the backdrop they are preparing for. But reporting bias is a HUGE problem in data analysis, so I won’t presume that this isn’t happening everywhere.
Jay
@Jackie:
Until DJTdiot actually does something, it’s just gas from his diapers.
Jay
@Martin:
They are building facilities in other States as well.
What the locations have in common, is high unemployment, low wages, and a State Government that doesn’t give a rat shit about Human Rights, Prisoner Rights, Cruel and Unusual Punishment and the rule of law.
Kelly
If I was prepping for societal breakdown I’d buy a couple pallets of canning jar lids. Perfect trade goods in a subsistence economy. Useful to many people. Sort of small denomination currency. “I’ll trade 10 jar lids for 5 lbs of venison from the deer you just poached.”
Kelly
@Spanky: I have that pain at the base of my thumbs. So far aspirin and/or naproxen takes care of the the pain. This summer’s new annoyance is a similar discomfort at the first joint on my big toes.
NotMax
@Kelly
Pallets of Lifestraws might serve as well or better as goods for barter.
Kelly
I’ve used a MSR ceramic water purification filter for about 30 years. I like it’s pump much more than sucking on a Lifestraw. On long hikes I’d take off my boots, soak my feet in creek and pump a liter or two of water. It would be a kinda high value trade good.
Geminid
@Jay: The US hung with the Iraqi Kurds after the first Gulf War, when Bush initiated the “No-fly” zone. We’ve maintained a military advisory and support mission there since then. It’s headquartered at the airport just outside Erbil, and there’s another base at Sulemeiniya.
After the second Gulf War, when the new Iraqi constution was being negotiated, the US played a role in negotiations resulted in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region, composed of the four northern provinces. At least, I assume the US did.
Iraqi Kurdistan is a very interesting country. It’s subordinate to the central government in several respects, and that relationship is somewhat problematic. But it’s the closest Kurdish people have come to self-rule in the modern era, and they are making the most of it. Iraqi Kurdistan is fairly safe and stable, and the government does a good job protecting human rights including for minorities. This a a very poor area, but it’s beginning to advance economically, and educationally as well.l
There’s a media site I read, Rudaw News English, that’s a good source for news of Iraqi Kurdistan. It also covers Kurdish matters in Turkiye, Syria and Iran. I’ll be looking at it a lot now, because there’s lot happening in Syria as well as Turkiye.
NotMax
@Geminid
Struggles within the Barzani clan in Iraqi Kurdistan remain on the back burner, for now.
Baud
@Jackie:
US to be the 51st Russian state.
ETA: Trump is also trying to water down a congressional sanctions bill.
NotMax
@Baud
1000% tariff on the import of Fabergé eggs.
//
Baud
@NotMax:
Whatever happened to the price of eggs anyway?
NotMax
@Baud
The maladministration:
“Eggs go up, eggs go down. No one can explain it.”
Baud
@Baud:
There’s also this.
Martin
@Baud: Trump is suing California to fix it. Apparently California is the source of all the nations’s ills – except for that dude in NYC.
NotMax
@Baud
There’s already bought and and shipped anti-missile batteries meant for Ukraine sitting collecting dust in Poland. Saw a report that Dolt 47 has deigned to authorize a total of 3 of them out of nearly two dozen to be deployed in Ukraine.
Jay
bsky.app/profile/npr.org/post/3ltmut7bd5c2y
Jay
thehandbasket.co/p/fema-david-richardson-missing-texas-flood-response
pieceofpeace
@Martin: Do you follow the TACO reports, and what do you think of them?
Martin
@pieceofpeace: I haven’t been. Maybe I should start.
Gloria DryGarden
Trevor Noah interviews Jon Stewart
This 1.5 HR podcast is clear, sane, and addresses many we discuss here. Calm, nuanced, and with promising leads for a way forward. Worth the time to listen in.
MagdaInBlack
@Marc: You think the puppies killed the goose?
Baud
Baud
Harvard bends its knee.
bsky.app/profile/chanda.bsky.social/post/3ltmcy35ans2v
sab
@MagdaInBlack: People hate pitbulls, never having met the sweet doofuses. Any other dog could have done that, but pitties get the blame.
Our neighbor kid across the street came by to sell us girl scout cookies. Our pitbull charged in welcome (she barks at the wrong time. She was raised by chihuahuas.) Neighbor girl was horrified until pitbull gave her a friendly slimy lick. Yes we bought cookies.
MagdaInBlack
@sab: My first thought was not dog, it was coyote. But hey, who knows. Killer puppies may be the new thing.
Baud
This would be one of the biggest upgrades in history.
sab
I used to live in Las Vegas NV. At that point I had the dog love of my life, a huge female German Shepherd. She was thin but weighed 120 pounds. She was three inches taller than breed standard for males. She was a very big girl. And friendly. She devoted her life to recruiting more pack members. I only allowed her two new recruits and also a rescue puppy.
She adored that puppy. She did not allow us to train puppy. She housebroke it. No other rules were allowed. She spoiled that puppy rotten. She died young (cancer at twelve) but puppy lived sixteen years and took over the pack when her mom died
ETA When mom dog died we did impose a few rules on puppy. Puppy was a good girl.
sab
@Baud: Jasmine Crockett has been fund raising around the country for Democratic congresspeople.
Baud
@sab:
Good for her. I hope she goes far. Texas is a tough place for a Dem.
Baud
MO voters are cucks.
But they can’t vote for Dems because of the Blacks.
MagdaInBlack
@Baud: Those Fox quotes in that article are just….wow. This is gonna be an extra ugly one, if she runs.
lowtechcyclist
In other news, the Administration continues to play hide-the-ball in Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s case, by sending a representative to yesterday’s hearing who basically didn’t know shit about anything:
prostratedragon
Torn between thinking Crockett might be able to win, and wanting her to keep moving up in the House. Que sera, sera.
Did Ackman really do this:
Matches where the final score is 6-1 6-1 are unlikely to have many deuces, and obviously don’t have 3rd sets to worry about.
BellyCat
@Baud: So much for academic resistance. Apparently withholding research funding and threatening accreditation bends EVERY knee.
Baud
@BellyCat:
I’m reminded that neither Biden nor Harris were Ivy Leaguers.
BellyCat
@Baud: Surely their alma maters will resist. //
prostratedragon
ProPublica:
Baud
Keep fighting.
Baud
@Baud:
Geminid
@prostratedragon: Rep. Joaquin Castro, another potential Senate candidate, and Jasmine Crocket have to decide if they want to give up safe House seats for a long-shot Senate run. Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke, who is testing the waters with a statewide “listening tour,” do not have that dilemna.
Newsweek and others reported on a recent poll showing that 34% of Democratic voters prefered Crocket, compared to Allred’at 20% and Castro and O’Rourke ar 13%. Asked to rate candidates on electability, 34% respondents rated Allred as most electable while said Crockett.was.
A new poll by the University of Texas showed that Trump has slipped into negative territory on job approval for the first time this term. His positive rating was 44%, and his negative rating wss 51%. This was a big poll with around 2200 respondents. I don’t know if the Senate race was polled.
O. Felix Culpa
@Geminid:
I’d hate to lose Crockett in the House to a windmill-tilting effort. Allred lost his last Senate bid 44.6% to Cruz’s 53.1%. Not really close. Perhaps Texans on the blog can speak to his viability as a rerun candidate.
I’m not sure what the Dems’ best strategy is, especially given that Texas is a voter suppression state.
Another Scott
@prostratedragon:
[ insert zepto-scale violin here ]
The poor, poor, misunderstood and underappreciated MotUs still don’t understand what Obama told them over 16 years ago – a critical number of sensible people and publicly supported institutions are the only things protecting them from the mobs with pitchforks.
I occasionally think that maybe the Pitchfork Brigades need to go on maneuvers a little more often than every few hundred years or so.
Grr…
Thanks.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Soprano2
@Martin: There was a story on our local news last night about the havoc these tariff changes are wreaking on smaller businesses. I’m hoping that having these stories on the local news will help them penetrate people’s consciousness in a way having them on the national news won’t.
Soprano2
@Martin: Time to round up all my old electrical cords for things I don’t have anymore, and old bad extension cords, and sell them to the metal scrapper. After August 1, of course. The price they give you for recycled aluminum keeps going up – it was $0.55/lb, last time I went it was $0.65/lb.
TONYG
I’m a little bit confused by Dear Leader’s logic here. If, as he asserts, cheap, plentiful copper is necessary for national security, then what is the advantage of increasing the cost of copper by 50%? There must be some logic here that I’m not intelligent enough to understand.
Soprano2
@Melancholy Jaques: I wish reporters would ask some FFOTUS official if they are also arresting the owners of these businesses they are raiding, because it’s illegal to employ undocumented workers.
Geminid
@Geminid: The symbolic handover of arms by the PKK went off as planned. Attendance was limited on account of security threats. Two drones were shot down near Sulemeiniya in recent days that are believed to have been fired by pro-Iranian militias.
Pictures of the weapons being burnt have circulated widely on Middle East media. This was a symbolic act and the PKK has plenty more weapons in its Qandil Mountains strongholds, but this was still considered a significant event.
Now eyes will be on Turkish President Erdogan’s speech tomorrow. So far, Erdogan has said little about the peace process publically since it was kicked off by a letter PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan released to his DEM allies last December.
Another Scott
@TONYG: POSIWID, of course. (Maybe with some sensible caveats.)
47 wants bended knees and all the monies.
You don’t want to pay 50%? Talk nicely to 47, with tears in your eyes, and give him what he wants.
Problem “solved”.
Until he changes his mind, which he will do, of course…
Grr…
Best wishes,
Scott.
Geminid
@O. Felix Culpa: The Newsweek article cited a couple polls showing Allred with plus-seven percent approval ratings. This was higher than that of Republican statewide officials, so Allred seems to have made a positive impression on Texans despite his 8 point loss last year. He or any other Democratic candidate will still face an uphill battle for Cornyn’s Senate seat.
Have you followed the Virginia and New Jersey Governor’s races? They feature two promising Democratic politicians: Rep. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. Sherrill and Spanberger are members of the talented Democratic House Class of 2018; both flipped Republican House seats that year.
O. Felix Culpa
@Geminid:
Thanks for the current poll info on Allred. I’m not holding my breath for a Dem win in Texas, but good luck to whichever candidate is willing to take the fight to Cornyn (or Paxton?) and gets the nod. We can’t win if we don’t run..
My understanding is that Spanberger looks like a slam dunk in VA. (Correct me if I’m wrong.) The latest polling for Sherrill gives her a 20-point lead, which ain’t shabby. Still a lot of months between now and November, and turnout as usual will be the key.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott:
Like a mob boss shaking down small businesses for ‘protection’ money.
lowtechcyclist
@O. Felix Culpa:
I’ve heard this here many times, and I think it’s even in a rotating tag. But I can’t remember seeing a link to any substantiating info.
I’ve got no reason to believe it’s wrong, but when something is taken as common knowledge, I’d like to know that the ‘knowledge’ part has a basis.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: +1
Yup, the (effective) Bills of Attainder against the big law firms is the canonical example.
Grr…
Thanks.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Geminid
@TONYG: The idea may be to spur domestic production of copper. The problem is that even though we have the copper in the ground, it will take a while to ramp up mining and processing.
I bought a one hundred pound roll of copper roofing material back around 2005. I had most of it left over after the project I bought it for, but during the Great Recession I hit a rough spot and sold it.
One of my regrets is that I didn’t buy another roll later on when copper was down to $2.25 a pound and I had the money. I think it’s over $5 a pound now. Soft roofing copper is neat stuff with a lot of uses.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
Are both houses of the VA legislature up for grabs this year, or does the Senate wait until 2027? After nearly three decades north of the Potomac, I’m losing track of stuff like this.
At any rate, I’m hoping you can keep me informed about candidates in swing districts that might benefit from some contributions. We want Spanberger to have a blue legislature next year!
Geminid
@O. Felix Culpa: Sherrill has the tougher race if only because her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, is a competent politician. Spanberger’s opponent is quite mediocre. Virginia Republicans have a very weak bench.
YY_Sima Qian
Heh, I had thought the terms claimed by Trump was a bit humiliating to Vietnam:
YY_Sima Qian
When Russia does this., is unequivocally termed genocide in the US (well, before Trump 2.0) & Europe:
Instead, the US is sanctioning UN & ICC officials to cover for Israel.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: Yes, Virginia’s Senate won’t be up until 2027. Democrats ought to be able to expand expand their 51-49 House of Delegates majority this year, maybe by a lot.
In 2023, the indefatigable WaterGirl put up fundraising threads for some House of Delegates candidates in close races. I hope she does again.
In any event, I think there will be a lot of discussion here about the closer districts. This will be the second election fought on the new map, and it’s a fairly neutral one.
I’m interested in how the Democratic statewide candidates perform on the campaign trail. Spanberger is ~45 years-old and Jay Jones, the Attorney General candidate, is ~35. I consider both of them very talented politicians with a lot of potential.
lowtechcyclist
@YY_Sima Qian:
Hell yeah it’s genocide. I am so done with the U.S. providing aid to this country that has turned into a monster.
O. Felix Culpa
@lowtechcyclist:
brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/study-reveals-lasting-voter-suppression-effects-restrict…
One of many articles available in a quick Google search.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I saw a Middle East Eye article that might interest you and others (you may have seen it already). The reporter is Sean Matthews, and the title is, “Iran receives Chinese surface-to-air missiles after Israel ceasefire deal.”
The SAMs involved are the “HHQ-9B” batteries that China has previously provided Pakistan and Egypt.
Martin
@prostratedragon: Greg is a good friend of mine.
I can assure you he was not perplexed. He is extremely smart and politically savvy. There is no way he didn’t know it was coming eventually and no way he doesn’t understand the intent.
All of the things I’ve been saying here about how to manage protesters and the lessons we learned and how disappointed I was to see so many UCs fuck that up – he learned all the same lessons. He knows how to keep the heat down and he did it, and probably thought that would help him more.
It’s really hard to not like Greg. He’s very personable, doesn’t play offensive politics. He’s not particularly liberal, was in the Army. He also cares more about the academic mission and students than pretty much any other administrator I know. There aren’t many people in this world I trust more than he.
He knows that 1) being black and 2) being president of a conservative university while black, while also not being an agent of advancing the conservative cause is why this is happening.
I’ve been wondering when this was going to happen. I too figured they’d focus on punishing the liberal schools rather than start the mission to make them overtly ideological to the right so I thought he might duck this for a while.
lowtechcyclist
@O. Felix Culpa:
Thanks for the link. The Brennan Center is a good source.
When I make a statement that’s debatable or otherwise needs support, it’s my job to link to that support. If someone else does, it’s their job.
I’m also somewhat underwhelmed by what the link shows. The way I’ve generally seen it stated here is that Texas isn’t a Republican state, it’s a voter suppression state. Nope, it’s both.
The main thing the Brennan Center was able to document was this:
So this suppression turned ~27,000 likely voters into nonparticipants in the 2022 election. Suppose 90% of them would have voted Democratic: in that case, the GOP margin was boosted by 21,600 votes.
11.4 million Texans voted in the 2024 election. Trump didn’t win by 21,000, he won by 1.5 million.
There may be other forms of voter suppression going on, but their effects would have to be an order of magnitude larger to be more than just the icing on the cake of a GOP win, even in a much closer race.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I have seen reporting of a potential sale, & the J-10CE fighter as well, but a lot of rumored Sino-Iranian weapons deals fail to materialize. Then again, Iran does not have much choice left, since Russia is clearly not in a position to help w/ Iran’s defense modernization needs.
It will take much more than a few battalions of HQ-9BE long range SAMs to make an integrated air & missile defense system. Iran needs new ground based radars, many more long, medium & short range SAMs, anti-drone point defense. Even the best ground based IAMD will merely delay the inevitable & increase the cost to the adversary, w/o a strong Air Force. Thus, Iran needs a new modern air force w/ new combat aircraft, modern air to air missiles, AWACS, & associated ground support. The air & ground forces have to bee fully fused in data & sensors & capable of cooperative engagement, w/ proper training, to stand up to an opponent such as the Israeli Air Force. That is a decade long effort & very expensive.
A major reason that Pakistan did so well in the air during the latest clash w/ India is because Pakistan had in fact purchase & fielded such an integrated air & ground based systems from the PRC. That & the fact that the Pakistani Air Force has always been the most competent service among the country’s armed forces. Even so, the limited number (relative to the size of the country) of HQ-9BE & HQ-22AE SAM battalions could not prevent a lot of damage from precision missiles & drones launched by India.
In any case, owing to strong trade relations w/ Israel & the Gulf Stated (& strategic relations w/ the latter), the PRC will probably only sell defensive weapons to Iran.
BTW, Egypt just inducted the HQ-9BE SAM system, & there has been a lot of interest in the J-10CE fighter, the KJ-500E AWACS, the HQ-9BE & HQ-22AE SAMs from across the Global South. The short Indo-Pakistani clash was great advertising for the PRC MIC.
Miss Bianca
@RaflW: I love Sunfishes! My favorite type of craft to sail.