2025 Activism

Over the past week or so, there have been at least three announcements of Congressional retirements/declining to run for re-election in 2026. The type of districts where there is now an Open Seat are interesting for a variety of reasons:

Let’s start in North Carolina.

THOM TILLIS SAYS HE'S NOT RUNNING FOR RE-ELECTION

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur.bsky.social) June 29, 2025 at 1:28 PM

Tillis (R-NC) is a two term incumbent senator from North Carolina who has won a pair of squeakers. His likely opponent was either former Governor Cooper (D-NC) or former Congressman Wiley Nickels (D-NC). Tillis noped out of the Senate after he voted against the motion to proceed on the tax cut and Medicaid cuts reconciliation bill in the Senate. He is a strong candidate in a seat that Democrats HAVE TO FLIP if there is a chance in hell in making JD Vance completely irrelevant in DC in 2027. Going from an incumbent defense to an open seat makes a flip substantially more probable for Democrats especially as the North Carolina GOP primary electorate really likes to vote for very weird people (Mark Robinson, Michelle Morrow last cycle).

Earlier this week there was news from Omaha:

Omaha's Republican House member, Don Bacon, announces he is retiring, so the seat immediately catapults near the top of Democratic pick-up opportunities: www.notus.org/republicans/…

[image or embed]

— Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social) June 27, 2025 at 8:10 PM

NE-2 which is centered in Omaha voted for Harris and returned the Republican Bacon to the House last fall. An open seat is a much easier flip of the five net flips that Democrats need than beating a well entrenched and locally liked incumbent.

Both Republicans are representing districts that were high on Democratic flip lists for 2026. Going into a year that is likely to have a generic House ballot several points bluer than it was in 2024, the incumbency bonus is quite valuable for Republicans to defend these types of seats. Losing these types of incumbents this early on in the cycle is one hell of a revealed preference.

Now let’s move to Philly:

Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans announces his retirement from Pennsylvania's 3rd District, a Philly seat that's one of the bluest in the nation. Evans, 71, was unable to vote for much of the last Congress due to a stroke, and he's now stepping aside rather than seeking another term.

[image or embed]

— The Downballot (@the-downballot.com) June 30, 2025 at 10:53 AM

PA-3 is a hyper Dem district. This is a seat that is safe Dem no matter what. The primary is the action. And I anticipate the primary to be intense. The fact that it is open up allows for both generational change and potentially ideological change. But if we think that we have a gerontocracy problem and if we think that we are in a time period of tight margins (positive or negative) tagging out someone with substantial health challenges for someone who is unlikely to miss a lot of votes due to medical needs is likely a good thing. Other Democrats who get mailers every month about mandatory minimum distributions from their 401Ks who represent safe districts should also step down in a likely to be very blue year.

Not all retirements are equalPost + Comments (10)