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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / Pandemic(s) & Plagues Update — July 29, 2025

Pandemic(s) & Plagues Update — July 29, 2025

by Anne Laurie|  July 30, 202512:34 am| 50 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19, H5N1 Bird Flu, Healthcare

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The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) last updated its invaluable Dashboard on Monday, July 28.

US Weekly COVID update: July 28, 2025
🔸1 in 118 People Currently Infected
🔸406,000 New Daily Infections
🔸2,842,000 New Weekly Infections
🔸142,000 to 568,000 Weekly Long COVID Cases
🔸1,000 to 1,700 Weekly Deaths
Source: pmc19.com/data/

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— Denis – The COVID Info Guy (@thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social) July 28, 2025 at 7:06 PM

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SARS-CoV-2 detections in wastewater accurately predict illnesses within one week
The surges in wastewater detection accurately predicted case counts for the following week.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…
Photo: Luke Jones/Flickr cc

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 3:59 PM

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Weekly U.S. COVID update:

– New cases: 65,100 est.
– Admissions: 4,557 (+5%)
– In hospital: 3,380 (+8%)
– In ICU: 440 (-7%)
– New deaths: 175
– Average: 199 (-8%)

— BNO News (@BNOFeed) July 28, 2025


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So far this year, more than 3.3 million COVID cases have been reported in the U.S., causing 234,889 hospitalizations and 16,390 deaths.

— BNO News (@BNOFeed) July 28, 2025

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Kennedy could soon reconstruct US preventive care panel, STAT News reports reut.rs/4oe3LB9

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— Reuters (@reuters.com) July 29, 2025 at 6:50 PM


This is bad:

U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could imminently overhaul a key federal advisory panel that recommends which preventive services insurers must pay for, health and medical news website STAT News reported on Tuesday, citing a person familiar with the plans.

Federal health officials are vetting new members for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, the report said. It also cited David Mansdoerfer, who advises a group allied with Kennedy, as saying he knew people being considered for the panel but that he declined to name them.

Mansdoerfer, who served during President Donald Trump’s first administration as deputy assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, later told Reuters that he knew “a couple” of those being considered. He added that he was not actively involved in the process, which he said could take from a few weeks to two or three months.

The Office of the White House Liaison at HHS is in charge of the vetting, said Mansdoerfer, now the chief strategy adviser to the Independent Medical Alliance, a group of physicians allied with Kennedy. This was also the case with candidates for advisory committees during his time at the department, he said.

Asked if the people he knew of who were under consideration were physicians, Mansdoerfer said they were all clinical health professionals. He had earlier told STAT that the existing panel was “MD heavy” and that the reorganized one was likely to include other kinds of healthcare providers.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Kennedy planned to remove all of the panel’s 16 members. An HHS spokesperson said Kennedy had not yet made a decision.

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force includes medical experts serving staggered four-year terms on a volunteer basis. Its role in choosing what services will be covered by insurers was established under the 2010 Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare…

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RFK Jr.'s plans for preventive health panel spark "deep concerns" from American Medical Association – CBS News
RFK Jr.'s plans for preventive health panel spark "deep concerns" from American Medical Association – CBS News share.google/CD6MjOtDwmQj…

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— TovahR 🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇨🇦🏳️‍⚧️🇺🇲 (@tovahr.bsky.social) July 29, 2025 at 5:27 AM

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Actions mean more than words.
And the fact that the new COI rules are not being applied to the new hand-picked Advisory Council on Immunization Practices, speaks volumes.
www.statnews.com/2025/07/09/k…

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— Megan Ranney MD MPH (@meganranney.bsky.social) July 10, 2025 at 3:22 PM

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Trump pulled Rep. Dave Weldon's nomination to lead CDC in March: He was too anti-vaxx. But RFK Jr. just hired Weldon’s longtime deputy instead.
Meet Stuart Burns, a career Hill aide with his own history inside the anti-vaccine movement, now enacting Kennedy’s agenda. www.msnbc.com/opinion/anal…

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— Brandy Zadrozny (@brandyzadrozny.bsky.social) July 25, 2025 at 4:47 PM

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Over the long haul, cuts to Nat'l Institutes of Health budget could cost more than is actually saved. As a key sponsor of foundational research & scientific workforce training, the NIH plays a vital role in biomedical innovation jamanetwork.com/journals/jam…

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— Delthia Ricks (@dricks.bsky.social) July 28, 2025 at 1:21 PM

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COVID vaccines saved 2. 5M lives globally—a death averted per 5,400 shots
"Work led by scientists from the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Rome and Stanford University and published in Jama Health Forum shows that vaccines have prevented the loss of 14.8 million years of life"

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— Denis – The COVID Info Guy (@thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social) July 28, 2025 at 2:36 AM

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@michael-hoerger.bsky.social

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— Physicians for a Healthy Democracy (@physiciandemocracy.medsky.social) July 28, 2025 at 4:46 PM

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New surveillance tool can predict COVID variants of concern
CoVerage is based on observations from the long-term evolution of certain influenza viruses such as influenza A H3N2.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 21, 2025 at 4:39 PM

In Nature Communications, authors describe a novel web platform for genomic surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus called CoVerage, which could identify variants of concern (VOCs) up to 3 months before the World Health Organization (WHO) is able to classify the variants that can lead to surges of COVID-19 activity…

CoVerage is based on observations from the long-term evolution of certain influenza viruses such as influenza A H3N2. In particular, the model looks for early changes in the virus’s spike proteins, which help the virus attach to human cells. Spike proteins are also the target for vaccines and therapies, the authors said.

Using the GISAID virus genome database, which has more than 16.5 million SARS-CoV-2 sequences uploaded and available, CoVerage looks at SARS-CoV-2 genome data by country of origin for strain dynamics and antigenic changes. The computer model then scans the sequences for changes to the spike proteins, and strains with significant alterations to the spike proteins are identified on a “heat maps.”

By continuously reading emerging potential variants of interest from country-wide lineage frequency dynamics, the authors were able to predict VOCs earlier than what is currently seen in practice. To test the model, the authors used it to retrospectively locate and identify known VOCs, including Omicron and JN.1…

===

🚨Yet ANOTHER big study highlighting safety…👇
Sum: "NO increased risk of 29 adverse events was observed after vaccination with the updated COVID-19 mRNA vaccine…"
Safety of Updated mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines jamanetwork.com/journals/jam… via @jama.com
#VaccinesWork

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— Timothy Caulfield (@caulfieldtim.bsky.social) July 29, 2025 at 9:05 AM

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Study details higher COVID death risks in undocumented people
Latino essential workers who were potentially undocumented were hardest hit, with a staggering 91% increase in deaths compared with 8% for their White US-born counterparts.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 28, 2025 at 4:36 PM

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Impressive safety data for the JN.1 Covid booster vaccine from a nationwide Denmark study
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam…

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— Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) July 28, 2025 at 11:08 AM

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The Atlantic: The Obvious Reason the U.S. Should Not Vaccinate Like Denmark
By Katherine J. Wu
bit.ly/4f9g5yA

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— Greg Folkers (@gregfolkers.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 8:47 AM

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'Disabling' Chronic Illness in Children Not Taken Seriously
“It was found that… 15%, who had previously tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified as likely having long COVID… Suggesting it has become one of the most common chronic illnesses in children.”
Source: archive.md/XewA8

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— Denis – The COVID Info Guy (@thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social) July 28, 2025 at 10:15 PM

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#USDA reports 2 more #H5N1 #birdflu infected dairy herds in California, bringing the state's total to 770.
The cumulative national total is 1,077 herds in 17 states. www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-po…

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— Helen Branswell 🇨🇦 (@helenbranswell.bsky.social) July 23, 2025 at 8:55 AM

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I talked to @susrust @latimes about the @USDA compensation program for dairies with H5N1-infected herds.

There has never been enough of an investment in containment. Compensation without support to change practices will not end the outbreak of moo flu.https://t.co/6m0NUBRY6a

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) July 28, 2025

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H5N1 avian flu hospitalizes Cambodian man
Global health groups yesterday updated their risk assessment of H5N1 based on recent developments, including an ongoing spike in human infections in Cambodia.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/a…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 29, 2025 at 4:08 PM

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Ferret study suggests seasonal flu immunity may protect against severe H5N1 infection
Findings suggest preexisting immunity to 2009 H1N1 or H3N2 reduces disease severity against the 2.3.4.4b clade, with H1N1 providing even greater protection than H3N2.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/a…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 2:53 PM

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Flies, ‘milk snatching’ among H5N1 transmission contributors in dairy cattle
Ongoing outbreaks have raised questions and intense scientific investigations into a host of contributing factors.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/a…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 18, 2025 at 3:37 PM

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Report describes large Salmonella outbreak tied to raw milk
The outbreak sickened 171 people in California and four other states from October 2023 to March 2024.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/s…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 25, 2025 at 2:09 PM

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The U.S. is facing a pivotal moment. Measles cases have reached a 33-year high just halfway through 2025. This grim milestone has public health experts worried that unless vaccination rates rise, the virus could cause more regular outbreaks every year.
www.sciencenews.org/article/meas…

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— Ian Weissman, DO (@drianweissman.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 11:24 PM

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“Measles cases in the United States are continuing to rise after breaking a decades-long record just two weeks ago.
There are now 1,319 confirmed #measles cases across 39 states,…. the highest nationwide measles figure seen since 1992.” #CDC #Ivax2protect
abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/m…

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— Dr. Richard Pan (@drpanmd.bsky.social) July 25, 2025 at 4:07 PM

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Trumpcare www.nbcnews.com/health/healt…

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— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler.bsky.social) July 17, 2025 at 3:16 PM

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Plagues have always killed more people than weapons in wars…

Study shows high rate of multidrug-resistant bacteria in hospitalized Ukrainian refugees
Among Ukrainian refugees treated at a Finnish hospital, 79% of those treated for war wounds carried multidrug-resistant bacteria.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/a…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 21, 2025 at 3:55 PM

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Group criticizes NIH over suspended funding for TB research
The Treatment Action Group says the 22 TB projects whose funding was suspended by NIH don't involve "gain-of-function" research.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/t…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 25, 2025 at 3:47 PM

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AAP calls for end to nonmedical vaccine exemptions for school attendance
The American Academy of Pediatrics said exempting children from immunizations for nonmedical reasons creates unnecessary risks to individuals and communities.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…

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— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) July 28, 2025 at 5:09 PM

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Oh boy
1. Only 13% of Americans are under HMOs
2. HMOs do not sell vaccines. They are sold by medical distributors like McKesson, direct from manufacturer, or vaccine 3rd party billers like VaxCare.
3. My salary in 2024 not 1 million!
4. I received $63,835 for vaccines in 2024 and paid $66,447.

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— Thomas A. Nguyen DO (@tom.medsky.social) July 17, 2025 at 12:35 PM


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Since 2000, Gavi has helped get vaccines to 1.1 billion children. The U.S. announced that, after this year, it’s pulling out all its money. If that happens, Gavi estimates that 75 million children will miss vaccinations over the next five years—and of those, 1.2 million children will die.?

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— Bill Gates (@billgates.bsky.social) July 3, 2025 at 7:25 PM

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This is a travesty & a nightmare. The US was a founder of @gavi.org. It lowers global vaccine costs, has vaccinated 1B children, & averted 19M deaths. This pull out will cost 100s of thousands of children's lives a year – and RFK Jr will be personally responsible.
www.politico.com/news/2025/06…

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— Atul Gawande (@agawande.bsky.social) June 25, 2025 at 9:59 AM

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Reader Interactions

50Comments

  1. 1.

    Aziz, light!

    July 30, 2025 at 12:55 am

    Hey, hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

  2. 2.

    NotMax

    July 30, 2025 at 1:02 am

    Live tsunami warning coverage in Hawaii.

  3. 3.

    Chetan Murthy

    July 30, 2025 at 1:17 am

    Anne, there’s no reason you should have looked at that Stanford study, but I ran across it in some other feed …. clicking-thru to the link in the skeet you linked-to above: sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/07/250726234429.htm

    It also turned out that most of the saved years of life (76%) involved people over 60 years of age, but residents in long-term care facilities contributed only with 2% of the total number. Children and adolescents (0.01% of lives saved and 0.1% of life years saved) and young adults aged 20-29 (0.07% of lives saved and 0.3% of life years saved) contributed very little to the total benefit.

    That guy Ioannidis participated in this study, and …. grrrr, the way they put things, it sure looks like vaccinating the young was not so useful.  B/c hey, you had to vaccinate 10k teens to save a life, why even bother amirite?  Only ….. (1) teens pass along the disease to older people, whose immunity won’t be as strong, and (2) as some of your skeets pointed out, the incidence of Long Covid in the young is pretty tragically high.

    Grrrr ….. Ioannidis.  Every time I see his byline, I just -know- there’s gonna be fuckery.

  4. 4.

    Martin

    July 30, 2025 at 3:11 am

    @Chetan Murthy: Yeah, communicable disease mortality can’t be measured the same way as other treatments.

  5. 5.

    Baud

    July 30, 2025 at 3:17 am

    RFK, Jr. will keep AL employed in the disease reporting business.

  6. 6.

    Chetan Murthy

    July 30, 2025 at 4:17 am

    @Martin: It’s almost as if they’re so uneducated they don’t know what “herd immunity” is.  Only, these are doctors — research academics — so they’re not uneducated, they’re -gaslighting- their readers.

  7. 7.

    Mai Naem mobile

    July 30, 2025 at 4:29 am

    @NotMax: are you affected? Are you okay?

  8. 8.

    NotMax

    July 30, 2025 at 4:36 am

    @Mai Naem mobile

    No problems whatsoever.

  9. 9.

    feather as a light

    July 30, 2025 at 4:40 am

    Please don’t platform the “Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative” or Denis The Covid Info Guy. Now more than ever, expertise matters. These are not experts.

    The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative is one guy Dr. Michael Hoerger, who is a psychologist with no formal training in infectious disease epidemiology. His methods are not published, not peer-reviewed, and he has made many basic mistakes pointed out by subject-expert scientists and he continues to make them. (For example, he interprets the CDC’s Wastewater Viral Activity Level as a measure of prevalence, when it is a z-score relative to a rolling background, so can’t be used as an absolute measure). His “model” predictions are consistently wrong; he predicts every week that wastewater will go up, and 37 out of the last 40 times it’s been lower than predicted. That can’t happen by chance. What he publishes is not credible.

    The CDC’s Covid Data Tracker is a perfectly good, trustworthy, primary source of information on this topic and easily understandable at glance. Early indicators (Covid-19 test positivity, emergency department visits) have risen recently, but are all *much* lower than last summer and at levels considered historically very low.

  10. 10.

    Baud

    July 30, 2025 at 5:08 am

    @NotMax:

     

     

    Today’s earthquake east–southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia is now estimated to be magnitude 8.8.

    The white dots in this pic are the historic quakes in the region, along the Pacific plate as it subducts under the North American plate.

    This quake is the most powerful on Earth since 2011.[image or embed]— Paul Byrne (@theplanetaryguy.bsky.social) Jul 29, 2025 at 9:58 PM

  11. 11.

    lowtechcyclist

    July 30, 2025 at 6:37 am

    @feather as a light:

    The CDC’s Covid Data Tracker is a perfectly good, trustworthy, primary source of information on this topic and easily understandable at glance. Early indicators (Covid-19 test positivity, emergency department visits) have risen recently, but are all *much* lower than last summer and at levels considered historically very low.

    Per the CDC tracker, there were fewer than 200 Covid deaths each week in June, with only 149 for the week of June 28.  Looks like any late summer increase will be more of a bump than a wave.

  12. 12.

    What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?

    July 30, 2025 at 6:41 am

    Boy we really are headed back to the 19th century. Robber barons, resurgence of TB, Whooping Cough, Measles, probably Mumps next. Folks dying of run of the mill bacterial infections.

    I was reading Thomas Pinketty’s Wikipedia page yesterday (French economist who does a lot of work on income inequality) and there was a mention that working class people turning to conservative political parties is a global phenomenon and that center-left and left wing parties have most of the highly educated voters.

    It’s weird and I’m not sure why left – right is sorting educated to less educated but it explains the antivax and other rejection of science by the right. If a person doesn’t know much it’s easier to con them with quackery. But the left pushes policies that are better for working class people. You would think that would attract more working class people but it doesn’t.

    Meanwhile the right pushes what the oligarchy wants which is objectively bad for working class people but gets their votes anyway. All they off is culture war stuff.

    Bottom line is the left has to find a way to draw some working class people back into the fold because highly educated people aren’t enough to win elections. I’m also befuddled by the fact that the parties of the left, though full of more educated people, seem to be terrible at politics. I guess it’s only a sample size of two but the Labor Party in the UK seems to be scuffling since regaining control and the Democrats here are struggling too.

    Need to find a solution to this issue if we don’t want science rejecting morons to cause like 5 simultaneous pandemics.

  13. 13.

    Baud

    July 30, 2025 at 6:52 am

    @What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:

    It’s seems like almost all world governments are center to right wing. Very few bright spots for the left around the world.

    I blame Schumer.

  14. 14.

    Baud

    July 30, 2025 at 7:01 am

    @What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:

    More seriously, IMHO one of the difficulties with highly educated people is that they’re more focused on one-upping other highly educated people rather than working together against a common foe.

    The other problem is that it’s difficult these days to be on the left but to be socially conservative, which means a large chunk of the population will immediately reject you.

  15. 15.

    lowtechcyclist

    July 30, 2025 at 7:10 am

    @Baud:

    The other problem is that it’s difficult these days to be on the left but to be socially conservative, which means a large chunk of the population will immediately reject you.

    Tru dat. But since ‘socially conservative’ pretty much means ‘being hostile to people different from you’ we’d have to throw people we care about under the bus, thereby selling our souls, to go along with that.

    We just have to work within these limitations, such as they are.

  16. 16.

    Baud

    July 30, 2025 at 7:12 am

    @lowtechcyclist:

    Agree completely. I just wonder how many people have internalized the limitations we face.

    We can do everything right and still lose.

  17. 17.

    ColoradoGuy

    July 30, 2025 at 7:33 am

    Both Elon Musk and RFK Jr are first out of the gate in the Mass Murder sweepstakes. They both appear to be closet eugenicists, deliberately weeding out the weak.

  18. 18.

    Ten Bears

    July 30, 2025 at 7:43 am

    Think of this as a pingback to a prominently placed footline …

  19. 19.

    New Deal democrat

    July 30, 2025 at 7:45 am

    The measles outbreak is slowly waning during the summer (because schools are out?). Only 10 new confirmed cases were reported in the past week, bringing the total to 1319 so far this year. 40 jurisdictions have reported cases. 92% of all cases were among the unvaccinated. 13% required hospitalization. Cases continue to break down roughly as 1/3rd each among the under 5 age group, older children and teenagers, and adults. Hospitalizations were more often required among the youngest children.

    I am very skeptical of he headline dashboard in this post, reporting up to 1,000 new deaths last week, as it appears to be supported by the alarmist Dr. Michael Hoerger, whose forecasts have consistently been too pessimistic. Dr. JP Weiland has been much more accurate, but he has not updated his forecast in over a week.

    Both Biobot and the CDC have reported small increases in COVID particles in wastewater as of last week. Biobot states that “COVID-19 is increasing, signalling the summer surge is underway in week 29 (through July 19, 2025)…. but levels are still pretty low right now.“ The CDC has particles at 2.27 per mL, about 0.70 above the recent low, but less than 1/3rd the level of this time last year.

     As of last Friday, the CDC reported preliminarily only 67 deaths for the week of July 19, vs. the all time low of 57 two weeks prior. The final toll for the week of June 28 was 149, another new all time low, bring the 52 week total also down to a new all time low of 34,500. This is consistent with BIobot’s wastewater analyses over the past several months (I.e., we don’t have to trust the CDC on this data).

    The CDC has not updated its variant page in almost 6 weeks, so except for new international information, we are now flying blind there.

  20. 20.

    gene108

    July 30, 2025 at 7:48 am

    @ColoradoGuy:

    They are definitely eugenicists.

    RFK, Jr.’s proposals on preventive care will be designed to cull the weak, who have inherited conditions, or are obese.

  21. 21.

    Baud

    July 30, 2025 at 8:03 am

    @gene108:

    And the poor.

  22. 22.

    New Deal democrat

    July 30, 2025 at 8:04 am

    @NotMax:

    @Baud:

    Today’s earthquake east–southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky

    This really piques my nerdy geological interest, because it highlights how maps of the world, typically focused at the equator, fail to meaningfully convey the sum of global tectonic plate movement.

    Because this earthquake occurred almost precisely at the point on the globe which is the center point of the mutual rotation of the Eurasian plate (counterclockwise) and North American plate (clockwise). It is also where the underwater Hawaiian seamounts are being subducted under the continents, and the point at which, if you draw trendlines, towards which the Australian and Indian plates are being drawn.

    And antipodal to this is where the South Atlantic has been spreading, and close to the origin point where Antarctica, Australia, and India started their separations from Pangaea many millions of years ago.

    All of which may be the continuing vestigial digestion of Theia by Earth.

  23. 23.

    Baud

    July 30, 2025 at 8:10 am

    @New Deal democrat:

    Plates go in. Plates go out. You can’t explain that.

  24. 24.

    Eyeroller

    July 30, 2025 at 8:15 am

    @Baud: Prof. Bigfoot, among others, would tell us that white leftists have mostly not internalized this at all, and he knows.

    This isn’t the only factor, however.  Historically, progressivism in general (in its various forms) has long tended to attract more educated people, because such people are more policy-oriented and can mentally project the outcomes of policies.  Less-educated and/or dumber people can’t do this, since they struggle with analytic thinking (breaking down a problem into parts).

    Krugman once pointed out that economic uncertainty has historically driven most populations to the right, not the left.  I would suspect that a “leftist” revolution only succeeded in Russia because of ruthless leadership that was successful at telling simple stories to a public that was very restless.  (Lenin was a very educated man.  Even Stalin was reasonably well educated considering his background.). Gut those who know that history better may have something to say about that.

    I don’t think we should look to Lenin and Trotsky as role models for communicating with the public, but they did have leadership abilities.

  25. 25.

    New Deal democrat

    July 30, 2025 at 8:16 am

    @Baud: I don’t have time to dig up the articles now, but there have been several in which geologists have theorized that tectonic movements have their origin in discrepancies in earth’s deep mantle, which in turn may be the result of bits of the doomed Theia still being incorporated more uniformly into the earth.

  26. 26.

    Baud

    July 30, 2025 at 8:21 am

    @Eyeroller:

    progressivism in general (in its various forms) has long tended to attract more educated people, because such people are more policy-oriented and can mentally project the outcomes of policies

     

    I don’t know. That may apply to policies, but it doesn’t seem to apply to political decionmaking. Plenty of progressives seem concerned more about their political identity than pragmatism.

  27. 27.

    Eyeroller

    July 30, 2025 at 8:25 am

    @New Deal democrat: I’m not sure what you mean by Earth digesting Theia.  There was at least one supercontinent before Pangea (Rodinia).  It’s a natural cycle as long as there is enough heating from radioactive decay at the core to keep the mantle convection going.  The cratons just float around and collide with each other and sometimes stick together (in particular, the adventures of our craton, Laurentia, are fun to trace).

    There used to be a Website, which may or may not still exist but I will likely have trouble finding with all the YouTube video “recommendations” and AI “summaries” and junk now appearing with Google, where one could move a slider to see projections of the appearance of the Earth from something in the Precambrian to several tens of millions of years into the future.   It was really nifty.

  28. 28.

    Eyeroller

    July 30, 2025 at 8:37 am

    @Baud: You’re talking about rank and file. I am discussing leadership.  Every movement will have leaders who are more or less effective.

    But another disadvantage we have is that the “left” tends to be less authoritarian.  If we consider the oversimplified but still pretty applicable two-dimensional model with authoritarian-libertarian and right-left scales, the left-libertarian and right-authoritarian quadrants are full, but the other two are mostly empty.  Maybe that’s how the Communists succeeded–they are left-authoritarian.

  29. 29.

    feather as a light

    July 30, 2025 at 8:44 am

    @New Deal democrat: FYI, JP Weiland is not a doctor of anything.

  30. 30.

    Geminid

    July 30, 2025 at 8:45 am

    @Eyeroller: I have read about the the activity of cratons in a particular context, which is the occurrence of geologic hydrogen. The accumulation of geologic hydrogen discovered while drilling a water well in Mali in 2011 has been attributed to craton dynamics. Now there is worldwide race to identify and exploit geologic hydrogen deposits and cratons seem to have a starring role.

  31. 31.

    New Deal democrat

    July 30, 2025 at 8:49 am

    @Eyeroller: Here’s an article making that exact speculation:

    sciencealert.com/strange-blobs-deep-within-earth-may-have-created-plate-tectonics

    FWIW

  32. 32.

    BellyCat

    July 30, 2025 at 8:53 am

    @Baud: More seriously, IMHO one of the difficulties with highly educated people is that they’re more focused on one-upping other highly educated people rather than working together against a common foe uneducated people hate them.

    FTFY

  33. 33.

    New Deal democrat

    July 30, 2025 at 8:55 am

    @feather as a light:

    According to this site, he has a PhD from U. Michigan and is a biomedical engineer:

    weilandresearch.bme.umich.edu/people/

    I’m welcome to be proven wrong if this is the wrong guy.

  34. 34.

    feather as a light

    July 30, 2025 at 9:03 am

    @New Deal democrat: That’s the wrong guy. At least, the one on Linkedin that I linked to claims to be the account on X, who really knows?

  35. 35.

    CaseyL

    July 30, 2025 at 9:23 am

    My ongoing half-assed theory is that once or twice a century the human species collectively tries to kill itself off.

    Species populations are generally constrained by available resources: everyone knows about the boom-and-bust cycle in predator-prey populations.  But ever since humans urbanized and invented effective medicine, Nature hasn’t been able to do that boom-and-bust cycle for us, so we have to do it to ourselves.

    Global wars are a great technique for killing off significant percentages of human population.  So are pandemic plagues.

    RFKJr was an environmental lawyer and activist, once upon a time.  At some point he must have concluded the only way to save the environment is to get rid of humans. Trump and the GOP put him in a position to carry out his Final Solution.

    RFKJr probably looks at the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 as a model to follow.

  36. 36.

    Kosh III

    July 30, 2025 at 9:26 am

    Kennedy is on track for Republican Health Care: get sick and die.

  37. 37.

    Eyeroller

    July 30, 2025 at 9:31 am

    @New Deal democrat: ​I have seen a lot of “wowee” reports on popsci websites, including some that are established and prestigious but still need clicks, and it’s often outlier theories so I’ll withold judgement for now.

    Any Theia collision would have happened when both objects were, if not molten, still soft, and the collision itself would have heated the local rocks to melting The scarcity of iron in the Moon’s core and (relatively) in Earth’s outer layers suggests Theia was incorportated pretty quickly. The rest of it went into the Moon or was ejected, with the ejecta either fallng back or some could have had enough energy to escape the Earth-protoMoon orbit. The ejecta would not likely be able to bust up the crust.

    There are also still problems with the two-body theory so we’re not even really certain that happened. We are just pretty sure that collisons caused the Earth-Moon system.

  38. 38.

    p.a.

    July 30, 2025 at 9:32 am

    @Eyeroller:

     

    @New Deal democrat:

     

    Interesting: I hadn’t heard abt Theia and earth beyond the collision, reformation, & the moon!

     

    Here’s something on pre-plate tectonics on earth.

     

     

    youtu.be/81KDvZ3B_ts?si=oBhllzq-10KoNN-b

  39. 39.

    Eyeroller

    July 30, 2025 at 9:34 am

    @Geminid: That’s the only place hydrogen could be preserved since cratons are permanent.  Seabed cycles and when it resurfaces any volatile gases escape.  Our gravity isn’t strong enough to keep H2 so it would rapidly escape if it outgassed from lava.

  40. 40.

    Eyeroller

    July 30, 2025 at 9:36 am

    @p.a.: I have seen sooo much misinformation and confusion conveyed to the general public about my former field (relativity) on YouTube that I don’t trust any science there even if the host is supposedly a specialist.  The attention economy has warped science education as well.

  41. 41.

    Jay

    July 30, 2025 at 9:37 am

    As always, thank you Anne Laurie.

  42. 42.

    New Deal democrat

    July 30, 2025 at 9:37 am

    @feather as a light: His Bluesky account says he is a “Scientist+Engineer. Infectious disease modeler.”

    That’s why I figured the guy I found was correct.

    Anyway, thanks.

  43. 43.

    New Deal democrat

    July 30, 2025 at 9:46 am

    @p.a.: Thanks. Interesting video.

  44. 44.

    Geminid

    July 30, 2025 at 9:58 am

    @Eyeroller: I haven’t gotten too deeply into the geology of geologic hydrogen deposits; I mainly follow the exploration and exploitation end. I’ve read that the HyTerra company is getting good results from exploration wells in eastern Kansas, and that a large deposit in the Loraine region of France is top candidate for recovery.

    I figure the Loraine deposit will prove or disprove the practicality of geologic hydrogen recovery on a large scale, and by the end of this decade. Meanwhile, the villagers in Mali where the deposit was discovered in 2011 have utilized the hydrogen on a small scale for several years now..

  45. 45.

    chemiclord

    July 30, 2025 at 9:59 am

    @New Deal democrat: ​
     It’s funny, because it’s responses like this why we simply can’t play the media game the way Republicans do.

    See, the MAGAt hordes simply immediately embrace any alarmist narrative and internalize it. On the left, a massive chunk of us scrutinize anything that even appears alarmist, scoff, and dismiss it even if the general thrust of the claim is correct.

    We simply don’t process information and respond to stimuli the same way the right does. Behaving like them isn’t the winning move some of us want it to be.

  46. 46.

    Lee Hartmann

    July 30, 2025 at 10:59 am

    I think Reuters misspelled “deconstruct”.

  47. 47.

    Matt

    July 30, 2025 at 11:16 am

    Over the long haul, cuts to Nat’l Institutes of Health budget could cost more than is actually saved

    We really need folks to stop pretending like the stated reasons for things are true; RFK et al know that these cuts won’t save money, they’re doing them explicitly to destroy state capacity.

    Unrelated question: where are all those “good billionaires” the Harris campaign had to ever-so-delicately avoid offending with too much populism? Seems like they should be stepping up to help preserve things like this. Almost like they don’t actually exist…

  48. 48.

    ruckus

    July 30, 2025 at 1:26 pm

    @What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:

    Maybe look at the overall picture of politics, not the headlines. Look what each side actually seems to stand for. My take is that the conservative side looks at most everything in a monetary fashion and the liberal side looks at results overall. People like money. And sure more is nicer and less is less so. But thinking along lines of only money misses a hell of a lot of what humanity OVERALL needs. It does say money is nice, more money is nicer and lots more makes better humans. Which is often pure, unadulterated bullshit. There are decent people with MONEY. There are horrible people without money. And the exact opposites are also true. It’s humanity. And money doesn’t buy humanity, although it can buy people. Humans tend to look at life from a monetary perspective because money is nice and a lot less money very often isn’t. For many people life revolves around money and having a lot of it. Even if a lot of it is relative.

  49. 49.

    ruckus

    July 30, 2025 at 1:56 pm

    @ruckus:

    My last point about money is basically that we do better as a species if we look at humanity and not a bank account. Sure life costs money these days, life has always had a cost. If you had desired skills of basic life 200 years ago – food and shelter your perspective didn’t need to go a lot farther. But today we provide stuff and services far, far, far differently than even in the lifetime of humans alive today. I’m an old and have seen so many dramatic changes in just living that if you didn’t see them you likely wouldn’t know or understand them. Almost every side of life is different than it was in the lifetimes of many old farts alive today. Medicine is DRAMATICALLY different. The skills, the tools, the results. And most any human endeavor has changed. Take music, how it’s made, how it’s stored, how it can sound. Take food, how it’s grown, what is grown, how it’s sold/provided. Take automobiles. Sure that really goes back just over 100 years but look at the difference – it is far, far different. I could make examples for much of life, even in the lifetimes of those still breathing. Like me. And yet we still have greed and a desire for control and MORE MONEY. It’s still humanity.

  50. 50.

    ruckus

    July 30, 2025 at 3:22 pm

    @What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:

    Most people, while they think they’d  like to be rich, never will be. They have to work at something to survive. And that work will very, very likely not make them WEALTHY. It’s possible that they could be rather successful, live well and comfortably, but many humans they think they’d like to be WEALTHY.

    I worked in a part of professional sports where I met people of wealth. Not many WEALTHY, but never have a clue what hunger is and live in a somewhat oversized house in a rather expensive neighborhood with some very nice paintings on the walls wealthy.

    There are more people in the US that fall into this segment than many might believe. Our country does/can do very well in the concept of having a nice level of money. Is more than that greed?

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