If Democrats can pull it together…Andy Beshear will run for Senate vs POTUS.
We need a senate seat and he can pull it off. I’m not so sure about POTUS🤷🏾♀️— Miss Aja (@brat2381.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Mike Murphy is “a longtime Republican strategist and campaign manager and co-director of the Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California”. Keeping that in mind, per the Bulwark:
Kentucky’s two-term Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is seriously exploring a possible 2028 race for president after his term ends in 2027.
That would be a mistake. In the modern Democratic primary electorate, a white male candidate with a moderate record would face an uphill battle.
So, what is an ambitious, talented Democratic governor with a long record of winning races in ruby-red Kentucky to do? Simple: Run for retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s open seat. Beshear could win and become a national hero to Democrats hoping to seize control of the Senate next year.
Beshear’s fellow Democratic governor, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, took that path last week, jumping into the race for retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’s now-open seat. As a well-liked, moderate Democrat, Cooper is such a strong Senate contender that even Donald Trump became an overnight Mr. Chicken, quickly squelching his higher-office-craving daughter-in-law Lara’s plans to run for the seat herself as the Republican nominee. Trump could smell an embarrassing North Carolina loss coming all the way down in Mar-a-Lago. And nothing gives the POTUS the heebie-jeebies more than the specter of a Trump giving a concession speech…
… Republicans were still recovering from Georgia’s popular Republican Governor Brian Kemp’s decision in May to pass on what most handicappers thought would be a victorious run for Georgia’s Democratic-held Senate seat, leaving the GOP nomination open to a bunch of second-tier contenders, each of whom carry a few tons of the GOP’s au courant tinfoil hat baggage. So give incumbent Democratic Sen. John Ossoff a decent edge to hold on.
What else is in play? Wily Maine survivor Susan Collins is up for reelection. Her races are often tight and never certain. Other GOP incumbents who hold advantages but are not home free include Joni Ernst in Iowa and John Cornyn in Texas, who faces a tough primary against the state’s lightning-rod attorney general, Ken Paxton, who would be a far less attractive general-election candidate.
Finally, there are the metal-bending states of Michigan and Ohio, both likely to feel the worst effects of Trump’s painful tariff policy next year on manufacturing and automotive jobs. Michigan is an open seat and Ohio freshman Sen. Jon Husted could provide a longshot opportunity for Democrats if the state’s voters feel enough economic pain next year. Finally, quirky Alaska politics can fuel upsets, and if she runs, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola could be a formidable challenger to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan…
If next year does become a historically typical “wave” election fueled by midterm frustrations, high Trump negatives, and voter anger about the economy and prices, Beshear could be the real Democratic hero of the moment, achieving the magical fourth win that would give Democrats majority control of the Senate and change everything. And doing it by winning Mitch McConnell’s old seat! Ah the irony.
Still, there are no guarantees. Other Democratic governors from red states, like Evan Bayh of Indiana and Phil Bresdesan of Tennessee, have run for Senate and flamed out. In state races, Democratic gubernatorial candidates can create their own independent images. In a Senate contest, moderate Democratic candidates find themselves awkwardly trapped defending Bernie Sanders and AOC. But in plenty of Senate-flipping midterm elections (like 1986, 1994, 2006, and 2014) strong Senate candidates with local muscle can ride the wave to victory…
If he runs for Senate, I will cheerfully donate to his campaign. He's smart and I can see him doing some good for KY after McConnell's ruinous tenure.
— THEE NWMagpie – #KHive – ICE Delenda Est – NO KINGS (@thenwmagpie.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 11:11 PM
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Proud to share this episode with Andy Beshear. When it comes to standing up for folks, actions matter most. Catch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWv2lidq_sI #AtOurTable #PullUpASeat
— Jaime Harrison (@jaimeharrison.bsky.social) August 6, 2025 at 9:28 AM
If Wishes Were Fishes (Open Thread)
Baud
That would be ideal. But I can actually see him think he has a better shot at POTUS than senator from KY.
bbleh
@Baud: Really? Having been elected KY Governor twice? And he’s still young.
WaterGirl
@bbleh: I agree with you on this. Sorry, Baud!
Plus, a lot more people will be vying for President. If we can’ take the House and the Senate we have a shot at keeping our democracy.
I’d say that’s worth passing up presidential aspirations for.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: Now let’s have half the commenters argue he’s a great choice while the other half call him a neo-liberal sellout. Surely we can get to 300 vitriolic comments before bedtime, no?
Shalimar
@Baud: He has won 3 statewide races in Kentucky. His chances of winning a 4th is a lot better than his chances of finishing in the top 4 in Democratic presidential primaries. That said, the embarrassment of losing a Kentucky race is a lot higher for him than it would be for being one of many candidates who won’t be president.
bbleh
@Gin & Tonic: lol PLUS we can have vitriolic META- comments about the comments! “I think that comment is just TOTALLY unfair and you should be pied!” “I just don’t understand why SOME people feel like they have to disparage other people’s comments!”
John Revolta
@Gin & Tonic: I’m a liberal. I think he’d be a great choice for President, but he might be a neo-liberal sellout, and also his position on Israel, which I haven’t heard, is entirely wrong.
Betty
I am curious if Mike thinks a moderate white guy would have trouble winning the Democratic primary, what kind of candidate does he think has a better chance? I believe most Democrats are only too aware of the misogyny and racism of so many American voters.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@bbleh: no comment
cckids
@Betty: This! That’s partly how Biden won the 2020 primaries; lots of Dems were still flinching from 2016. I can’t imagine it will be better in 2028.
Van Buren
@Betty: This x 1000. I’ll be shocked if we don’t nominate a telegenic white guy.
It sucks to be this way, but people are going to be too nervous to go any other route, IMHO.
PS My political senses are horrible, so take my prediction with a lot of salt.
Martin
@Betty: I don’t think we have a clear definition of ‘moderate’ any longer.
sab
Republican strategist says this steller Democrat should not run for president because reasons…
Those reasons maybe good but color me skeptical.
sab
@Martin: Who cares any more? Nuts or not!. If Democrat and not nuts I am on board.
Seonachan
In Massachusetts we seem to love electing moderate Republicans for governor but would never elevate them to federal office. Bill Weld and Mitt Romney tried running for senate and both were soundly defeated. I don’t know Kentucky or Beshear but I can imagine the same dynamic holding there.
Melancholy Jaques
I believe the exact opposite to be true and submit the last three presidential elections as evidence. I am not advocating for it nor am I saying I like it, but the Democratic primary electorate will be very reluctant to nominate a woman or non-white male at this time.
Martin
@sab: Everyone outside the base will care. And some of the base probably will care.
They Call Me Noni
@WaterGirl: I agree. Beshear needs to be a Kentucky Senator.
Martin
@Melancholy Jaques: What about the moderate part (definition of which I’m not clear on right now)?
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Gin & Tonic:
I’ve making dinner or I’d try to contribute 10+ such comments to the pool.
Beshear’s definitely not the obvious MattY “liberal”, neoliberal, sellout when compared to at least 3 names that are bandied about as people thinking about a run so he’s got that going for him.
Per sab at #13, yup, yet another Republican strategist that certain self-styled ‘progressive’ folks pay attention to telling us how to proceed. Hard pass.
lowtechcyclist
@Seonachan:
This. For whatever reason, red staters will elect Dem governors, and blue staters will elect GOP governors. But that dynamic doesn’t carry over to Senators.
suzanne
@John Revolta: I’m an elitist shitlib wine mom. I know very little about Andy Beshear, I’m sure I can muster up some loathing.
Melancholy Jaques
@Martin:
The fact that the term moderate has lost its currency is good. Let’s stop using the word. And drop left, right, and center. These words are meaningless; they do not describe anything or anyone. Our team should say so every time some dick-weed in the media uses the them.
Let’s be specific about the values we represent and the policies we want to enact.
Jackie
@bbleh: I agree! The same voters who voted Beshear for governor TWICE!! would be the same voters to elect him to Congress.
lowtechcyclist
@Seonachan:
This. For whatever reason, red staters will elect Dem governors, and blue staters will elect GOP governors. But that dynamic doesn’t carry over to Senators.
ETA: That said, Beshear in 2026 is probably as good a shot as we’ll ever have at a Kentucky Senate seat.
Martin
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: I would simply note that we probably have more viable options for president than KY-Sen. If you are trying to win both races, you kind of have to advocate for Beshar to stay in that senate race. You can ignore all of Mikes analysis and come to that conclusion pretty simply.
Gin & Tonic
@Martin: Can’t link it from this device, and not sure Adam will cover it, but there was a Twitter thread earlier adding *a lot* of detail about that drone-dropped e-bike to the Ukrainian soldier behind enemy lines. If even 50% of it is true, it’s beyond your wildest imagination.
Gin & Tonic
@suzanne: I’m counting on you.
suzanne
@Melancholy Jaques:
You might be right.
But I think racism and sexism are not so much problems on the candidate directly, and are much more at work in the context of larger social dynamics. Republicans would totally vote for a woman who encouraged women to be submissive to their husbands and not to threaten men’s earning power. They’ll vote for a person of color who flatters whiteness.
suzanne
@Gin & Tonic: I’m not in short supply of loathing.
Omnes Omnibus
@Melancholy Jaques: I tend to agree with what Geminid has been saying for quite a while. That there really isn’t that much ideological space between progressives Dems and Blue Dogs. Some of the differentiation is stylistic and some is marketing (presenting as one needs to in one’s constituency). There are outliers at each end and they get most of the attention.
MagdaInBlack
@Gin & Tonic: I heard something about that, but had not followed up on it.
lowtechcyclist
@Gin & Tonic: I googled ‘Ukraine drone ebike’ and it popped right up. Amazing.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Martin:
Oh, I agree on anything that might optimize grabbing that seat but I’m also tired of people constantly telling us cycle-after-cycle that such-and-such Senate candidate there has a chance and then they run a milquetoast, (R) Lite campaign and predictably get slaughtered. One would think Beshear’s experience there would be a good guide for him running such a campaign.
But I always wonder about career politicians (I don’t use that term as a pejorative) doing what they want to do vs what they think is something “a step up” on the career ladder that they might hate.
And maybe he doesn’t relish the idea of the kind of work and atmosphere that exists in the contemporary US Senate. I mean that’s what driving one of our sitting Senators to run for governor next year and for once, nobody outside of Dem “leadership” in this state wants him (Bennett) to leave the Senate. As “meh” a Democratic Senator that he is, we’d rather he be in DC than in the governor’s mansion.
I digress. I wonder how a politician like Beshear communicates these kinds of things to the national Dem leadership.
zhena gogolia
@sab: Yeah, that struck me too. He’s full of it if he thinks a white male can’t win a Democratic primary.
Martin
@Gin & Tonic: I’ll look for it. I just think it’s a fascinating look at how these devices are changing how we do warfare and maybe even S&R.
Ryan
“So, what is an ambitious, talented Democratic governor with a long record of winning races in ruby-red Kentucky to do? Simple: Run for retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s open seat.”
I’m skeptical of this strategy for the simple reason that it’s hard to accept a demotion from governor to senator.
Martin
@Omnes Omnibus: I agree. That’s kind of why I ask, but also because I think there needs to be a real expansion of that space.
Baud
@bbleh:
People vote federal different from how they vote state
ETA: I see others have made the point.
Gvg
I don’t know anything about Kentucky politics but I assume Beshear does, so I will let him figure out what’s possible. If he wins he can do a lot of good. If he makes a really good impression in the Senate, it is not impossible that he can also run for President 2 years later, though I hope the Senate replacement could also be a dem.
What is the chance of another democratic governor of Kentucky? It is turning out to be pretty significant for states to have good governors (smart tough democrats). We kind of need everything we can get.
Martin
@zhena gogolia: Not what he said. He said moderate white male. The base won’t elect Joe Manchin.
zhena gogolia
@Martin: I don’t think Joe Manchin is a moderate Democrat. I’m not sure what to call him. He’s not in the same universe with Beshear.
Martin
@Ryan: Most see that as a promotion. Lots of governors have gone to senate. Most cycles there’s at least 2 governors running for senate. Less common to go the other way.
Geminid
@Shalimar: I think that if Andy Beshear runs for the Senate in 2028 he will beat Rand Paul, or another Republican if Paul retires. Beshear is very well-known in Kentucky, and polling consistently shows that Kentuckians like what they see.
As for Mike Murphy’s contention that Andy Beshear could not win the Democratic nomination for President in 2028, I’ll just ask: how could Murphy– or anyone else for matter– know? We don’t even know where the Democratic “base” is now, much less where it will be in 2028. Democratic primary voters will have their say in 2028, and that is when and how we will know.
So my attitude is: Andy Beshear ought to do what he thinks is best. He doesn’t work for me or Mike Murphy, and he knows national politics as well or better than either of us.
Baud
@Geminid:
Whatever he decides, it’ll prove that Dems are in disarray.
Martin
@zhena gogolia: You don’t have to think that – you didn’t write it. Mike Murphy wrote it and I’m pretty sure he does think of Manchin as a white male moderate Dem. I think he’d put Rahm Emmanuel on that list who has also floated running, as has Cuomo. I don’t think we’d pick any of them.
Baud
Jackie
@Gvg:
Pretty good, if the Republican is Marsha Marsha Marsha Blackburn ;-)
Omnes Omnibus
@Jackie: She’s in Tennessee not Kentucky.
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist: A governorship can be less politically nationalized since the governor isn’t voting on national policy. Of course these days we have governors like DeSantis and Abbott trying to out-Trump Trump.
Geminid
@Martin: Andy Beshear is very different from Rahm Emanuel or Andrew Cuomo and I’m surprised you would lump the three together. Why tag a young, successful governor with a couple of washed up has-beens and never-will-bes?
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: Joe Manchin was a conservative Democrat; a throwback.
Jackie
@Omnes Omnibus: Oh, poo, you’re right. I saw that she’s running for gov and conflated the two states.
Martin
@Geminid: I didn’t. I lumped the 3 together (Manchin, Cuomo, Rahm) together. I never mentioned Beshear.
But it goes to my original question – what is a moderate? Pro Israel, any deviation on trans rights, any deviation on abortion rights, economic policies, populist, gun rights, liberal vs establishment, etc?
I don’t think of Beshear as being moderate, but I don’t know his politics very well.
Geminid
@Martin: My apologies. I was pretty blurry-eyed when I wrote that comment.
But while I see you attributed that list of representative moderstes to Mike Murphy, it still seems like an odd one. Joe Manchin, Andrew Cuomo and Rahm Emanuel are objects of a lot of animus and they *are* washed-up has-beens, Emanual’s presidential aspirations notwithstanding.
A more representative and less invidious list might include Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and Reps. Sharice Davids, Jason Crow and Mikie Sherrill
Paul in KY
The last Democratic Senator from KY was Wendell Ford. Before that it was Dee Huddleston (who McConnell beat).
Might have a better shot running for POTUS.