Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Find someone who loves you the way trump and maga love traitors.

Fight them, without becoming them!

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Rupert, come get your orange boy, you petrified old dinosaur turd.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

No one could have predicted…

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

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Another Tuesday, More Wins for Democrats!

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A year ago we probably wouldn’t have covered these races at all.  Now we can see how important even the state races are these days.  They have always been important – Republicans absolutely beat us to the punch re: recognizing the importance of state races.

Another Tuesday, Another Win for Democrats! 3

North Carolina voters have spoken, and the loser is Donal Trump!

The North Carolina primaries were 3 weeks ago, but the State Senate leader insisted on not one, but two, recounts.  Yesterday, after the second recount wasn’t netting him any votes, he finally conceded.

The loser, of course, had been endorsed by Donald Trump.

I have a question:  Is Trump so greedy that if a Republican candidate offered him money NOT to endorse them, would T take the money in spite of the insult?   I ask because it doesn’t seem like his endorsements are helping the recipients in any way.

Florida Man, Shocking News!

Donald Trump – Hypocrite Extraordinaire – Voted by Mail in Florida

Voting for me, but not for thee!

Florida elections – two out of three ain’t bad – two out of three is most excellent!

Dems won two out of three.  As they say, two out of three ain’t bad.  Especially in Florida!

Lots of great details in this article from  270toWin.  Good thing Jackie recently moved to Florida, as it seems like she might be our good luck charm in FL.

Another good article at The Downballot.

In the second massive upset of the night for Florida Democrats, Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran and union official, flipped a state Senate seat that became vacant after Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped its previous occupant to serve as his lieutenant governor.
Nathan overcame a huge financial disadvantage to beat Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow and win the Tampa-area 14th District. Nathan was leading by a margin of 50.2 to 49.8 when Tomkow conceded.

Earlier in the evening, Democrat Emily Gregory won a separate special election for a state House seat in Palm Beach County that includes Donald Trump’s seaside lair of Mar-a-Lago.

DeSantis himself put the 14th District in peril for the GOP when he elevated Sen. Jay Collins to replace his previous second-in-command last August. Though the district had voted for Donald Trump by a 53-46 margin in 2024, four years earlier, it had gone for Joe Biden 51-47. On Tuesday night, it returned to form.

Florida State Senate 14

Brian Nathan (D), who won, is a Navy veteran and union leader.

The loser, Josie Tomkow, had given up her previous seat in order to “win” this one.  And then she lost.

Too bad, so sad for Josie!

Another Tuesday, Another Win for Democrats! 1

Florida State House 87 – includes Mar-a-lago

This one was a bit of a squeaker, but T won this district by 11 points in 2024. The Republican who had this seat before he resigned won by a 19% margin in 2024.

Trump endorsed the Republican male, of course, who was beaten by a woman!

Another Tuesday, Another Win for Democrats!

Florida State House 51

The person who had vacated this seat – Josie Tomkow – had been reelected by a 57% to 43% margin in 2024.  Not all that far off from these election results.

Another Tuesday, Another Win for Democrats! 2

Nathan’s win represents the 30th legislative seat that has flipped from red to blue since Trump returned to the White House. During that time, Republicans have flipped zero Democratic seats.

Open thread.

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Open Thread: Texas Politics Ain’t for Sissies

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here's the ad. as much as i loathe ai stuff "he's got him a condo / it seats about 20 / so hurry up and bring your Nate Paul money" is kind of a bar.

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— gwen howerton (@kissphoria.bsky.social) March 17, 2026 at 5:12 PM

Gwen Howerton, at the Texas Chronicle, with the backstory — “John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are trying to drown each other in AI slop”:

… Thematically, “Love Shack” is a good choice for a parody. If you can remember, Paxton and Paul, a real estate developer, really did have a joint Uber account that Paxton used to meet with Paul and visit his mistress (the first one). There was also the little issue of Paxton and his wife, Angela, claiming three primary residences on mortgage documents. One of those appeared to be a condo on Enfield Road in Austin, which Cornyn’s campaign ad alleges functioned as Paxton’s very own little “love shack.”…

“Ken’s Love Shack” is just the latest salvo in the AI-political ad arms race (or race to the bottom, depending on your outlook on generative AI) that’s taking place in the U.S. Senate race. Paxton and Cornyn have traded artificially generated barbs at each other. In January, Paxton put out an ad in which a fake Cornyn dances with a fake Rep. Jasmine Crockett in front of the U.S. Capitol Building. Cornyn used AI to call Hunt a “show dog.” Republicans have also used AI to create an ad of Talarico reading social media posts they believe are damaging to his campaign. And who could forget Crockett’s “Texans don’t back down. We rise” AI-created ad done in vaguely anime-style?

But wait, didn’t Texas become the first state to ban the use of AI deepfake videos in campaign ads in 2019? Well, that law only applies to statewide races, not federal ones. And while most of the ads in the Texas Senate race have had disclosures that they were AI-generated, campaigns aren’t legally required to do so. A bill that would have required those disclosures on campaign ads run in the state of Texas stalled last year over a freakout on the right that the legislature was trying to “ban memes.” There’s no national law here, so Paxton, Cornyn and everyone else running for office is allowed to put as much AI slop in the trough as you can eat…

 
Puck, last Monday — “Children of the Cornyn”:

Republican John Cornyn, the four-term senior senator from Texas, is suddenly fighting for his political life to hold the seat he’s occupied for more than two decades. Party operatives have practically begged Donald Trump to jump into the primary runoff race and endorse Cornyn over his scandal-plagued but scrappy opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. And yet, Trump has held off—perhaps because he views the dangling sword over Cornyn’s head as leverage, or he sees a bit of himself in Paxton. Either way, it’s hardly clear whether a belated Trump nod would drag Cornyn over the finish line.

That’s a problem for national Republicans, who are betting the house—to the tune of at least $70 million so far—to keep Paxton off the ballot in the general. Paxton, after all, has generated perhaps the fattest oppo file in politics: He’s been impeached, acquitted, accused of stealing a Montblanc pen, and divorced “on biblical grounds.” Most strategists argue Cornyn is the only Republican who can beat Democrat James Talarico, at least without having to siphon millions of dollars from other Senate races…

Sure, not everyone is worried. Some Texas Republicans cannot see any scenario in which either Republican nominee loses the general election. The first wave of opposition research on Talarico, the seminarian Democratic nominee with a long history of liberal statehouse speeches and social media activity, heartened Republicans everywhere. “Anybody who says ‘Jesus is nonbinary’ and ‘There are six sexes’”—references to remarks Talarico made in the state House—“that ain’t gonna happen in the state of Texas,” insisted a Texas Republican consultant.

Even so, a good night for Texas Republicans in November could mean spending a fortune to hold on to a Senate seat that’s otherwise been reliably safe for the party. Meanwhile, there are all kinds of wildfires breaking out downballot, thanks to the G.O.P.’s own redistricting project, the national political environment, and one hell of a congressional scandal. One Dallas Republican source has taken to casually referring to the political affairs in his state as “a meltdown.” In other words, the party may be on track for a Pyrrhic victory in the Senate, but a great deal of damage has already been done…

Texas used to be where national Republicans went to fix their political problems in other states. Does a candidate need more money for the Raleigh media market? Go to Dallas and Houston to fundraise. Worried about losing the House? Call Austin, and Texas will pony up more seats in redistricting. (The most recent gerrymandering go-round was, after all, the second time in 25 years that national Republicans deployed this tactic outside the normal redistricting cycle.) This time, though, Texas Republicans are consumed with their own dramas and just about tapped out for everyone else’s. As the Texas consultant put it, “The state of Texas is on fire, dammit.”

In many ways, Cornyn’s dilemma is a microcosm of the state’s—and the party’s—larger spiritual problem. As a vestige of the pre-Trump G.O.P. and a former two-term chairman of the N.R.S.C., Cornyn lived through the turbulent 2010-2012 era, when the Republican establishment saw its incumbents and favored candidates fall to fatally flawed Tea Party candidates who twice cost them the Senate majority. Cornyn helped write the playbook for dealing with this threat, and now he’s deploying it himself: Run your primary campaign like your life depends on it. Of course, the guns-blazing approach comes at a cost—about $70 million has been spent on reelecting Cornyn so far, out of the $95 million spent on the Republican primary in total. “That’s the G.D.P. of small countries,” said a Washington-based Republican consultant. “That’s crazy.”

But the deeper concern is what the mess in Texas means for Republican efforts beyond the state. If Cornyn’s reelection were a gimme, the senator would be inviting Republican incumbents and challengers to meet his Texas donors, traveling the country fundraising for colleagues as a bold-faced Senate headliner; and raising ungodly amounts of money for the N.R.S.C. But Republican infighting in the state, and the looming threat of a genuinely competitive general election, means most of that money and energy is staying at home. And every dollar spent in Texas is money not going out to House and Senate races elsewhere…

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The Big Loser in the Illinois Primaries on Tuesday

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Everyone seems to be talking about the Kat Abughazaleh loss in IL-9 and the win in the primary to replace Dick Durbin.  (Both of which I am happy about.)  But Dan Pfeiffer talks about the biggest loser in Illinois:

The Biggest Loser:  AIPAC

To the extent the Illinois contests broke into the national political discourse, it was about the role of AIPAC, the pro-Israel advocacy group, and the politics of Israel and Gaza. AIPAC spent more than $20 million backing four House candidates and one Senate candidate to try to increase the number of Democrats in Congress who support the Netanyahu government.

AIPAC and Israel became major flashpoints in several of the races, especially in the 9th District, which has one of the largest Jewish populations of any district in the country.

Illinois became seen as a test of AIPAC’s strength and a preview of how Israel’s politics may play out in the 2028 Democratic primaries.

Despite two of their chosen candidates winning their races, this was a devastating loss for AIPAC. The results speak to the toxicity of their brand, the idiocy of their political strategy, and the dramatic shift in opinion on Israel driven by the genocide in Gaza.

AIPAC endorsed Laura Fine, Melissa Bean, Donna Miller, and Melissa Conyears-Ervin for House seats. Only Bean and Miller won their races. AIPAC tried to spin these results as a success.

AIPAC Strategy – oops

AIPAC’s strategy seems designed in a lab to hurt the very cause they claim to advocate. The consequences of their hardheaded, counterproductive approach are on full display in the 9th District.

AIPAC was hell-bent on defeating Daniel Biss — the popular local mayor who was the frontrunner in the race — even though his mother is Israeli and he has refused to call what’s happened in Gaza a genocide. Their beef with Biss was that he wanted to condition U.S. aid to Israel, a fairly mainstream position in this era. Instead, they wanted Fine, a candidate who would offer even more unyielding support. In the end, they pivoted to go after Abughazaleh with some pretty gross ads. But their preference for Fine was clear.

By going hard after Biss in a race they were almost destined to lose, AIPAC turned a periodic ally in Congress into an ardent opponent. He called out AIPAC by name in his victory speech Tuesday night.

AIPAC moves in these elections seem sketchy to Pfeiffer, and also to me!

The problem is that AIPAC demands complete fealty to their agenda and will spend millions to defeat candidates, like Biss, who have good-faith disagreements on policy. A similar thing happened earlier this year when AIPAC spent $2 million attacking Tom Malinowski in a New Jersey special election in an attempt to elect their preferred candidate. Instead, they inadvertently elected a progressive who is a far more ardent opponent than Malinowski ever was.

Their political strategy is abject malpractice.

It’s not just the candidates AIPAC backs — it’s the way in which they do it. AIPAC doesn’t run ads talking about Israel or the Middle East. They don’t even use their own name.

AIPAC sets up innocuously named super PACs to attack Democrats on issues that have nothing to do with Israel. In Illinois, the AIPAC vehicles were named “Elect Chicago Women” and “Affordable Chicago Now.” In the 9th District, “Elect Chicago Women” attacked Abughazaleh from the left in order to depress her support. In New Jersey, they attacked Malinowski for voting for ICE funding in 2019.

It seems sketchy, because it is.

AIPAC has become so toxic that they can only run campaign ads anonymously and on issues that have nothing to do with their core mission.

Just one more reason for me to loathe AIPAC.  I don’t hate Israel and I don’t hate Jewish people, but I surely loathe AIPAC.

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Wednesday Morning Open Thread

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Venezuela wins the World Baseball Classic

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— CJ Fogler (@cjzero.bsky.social) March 17, 2026 at 10:58 PM

Reason #34 why so many Americans were rooting against Team USA.

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— Eric – Now with Subtitles! (@proggyboog.bsky.social) March 18, 2026 at 12:29 AM

Was getting beers with my Indian neighbor at a bar that was showing the WBC. My verdict was that it's good that Venezuela won because Team USA is full of Trump chuds and his verdict was that he hopes this loss inspires Americans to start playing cricket instead.

— Stan Oklobdzija (@stano.bsky.social) March 18, 2026 at 12:30 AM

===

Stratton also had the backing of Sen. Tammy Duckworth, and if Stratton wins in November, the pair would be the first women of color to represent the same state in the Senate at the same time.
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton wins Democratic nomination for US Senate www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/17/i…

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— Dan Vock (@danvock.bsky.social) March 18, 2026 at 1:38 AM

Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss speaks with suppoters after he won the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky in the 9th Congressional District during an election night watch patry at Double Clutch Brewing Company Tuesday in Evanston.

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— armando l sanchez (@mandophotos.bsky.social) March 17, 2026 at 11:45 PM

The cryptocurrency industry super PACs dumped $14.2 million into the Illinois primaries. 90% of that – $12.8 million – was wasted, in that it went to opposing Democratic candidates who won their primaries (Stratton in the Senate race, Ford in H-07) or supporting their opponents.

— Molly White (@molly.wiki) March 17, 2026 at 11:01 PM

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Illinois Primary Results

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Big primary day today in Illinois!

Election results LIVE

That site doesn’t have all the districts, obviously.

This one is covering my district IL-13.  The race has been called for the incumbent, Nikki B.  Yay!

I’m pretty pleased with how things are going so far.

Senate:

Illinois Primary Results

I really want Juliana Stratton to win. Looking good so far.

What else are you guys seeing?

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Open Thread: James Talarico Is Scaring All the Right People

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It's time, Texas. Vote for Talarico.

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— George Takei (@georgetakei.bsky.social) March 13, 2026 at 4:15 PM

I’m not a Texan voter, and Talarico wouldn’t have been my first choice, but he’s the Democratic candidate now and he’s doing an excellent job so far defending our small-d and large-D Democratic values…

Talarico: "As a former educator, as someone who fought for students & kids in the halls of the Texas Capitol, it makes me sick to my stomach to see our foreign policy take the lives of innocent children in Iran & in the Middle East. It has to end. We need a foreign policy that reflects our values."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) March 12, 2026 at 9:24 PM

our boy's on it

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— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) (@merovingians.bsky.social) March 11, 2026 at 2:35 AM

James Talarico: Neither John Cornyn nor Ken Paxton deserve the honor of representing this great state. Both of them are far more interested in serving their billionaire megadonors than serving the people of Texas.

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— Team Talarico (@teamtalaricohq.bsky.social) March 12, 2026 at 11:33 PM

Trump melts down over James Talarico: “He’s so woke, h-he’s grossly incompetent… He’s such an insult to Jesus”

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— Headquarters (@headquartersnews.bsky.social) March 13, 2026 at 12:11 PM

Talarico: I know a minority we should harass

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— manish vij (@mvij.org) March 10, 2026 at 12:37 AM

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Fundraising Efforts – Part 2: The Senate

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State of the Senate

We need to HOLD these 4 existing Senate seats.

Only one of those 4 races has an incumbent.  
There is no guarantee that we will hold these seats.

  • Georgia  (Jon Ossoff)
  • Michigan  (Gary Peters, retiring, primary Aug 4 )
  • Minnesota  (Tina Smith retiring, primary Aug 11)
  • New Hampshire  (Jeanne Shaheen retiring, primary Sept 8)

States with good, well-known candidates, I like our chances.

  • North Carolina  (Roy Cooper) 
  • Ohio  (Sherrod Brown)
  • Texas  (James Talarico)
  • Alaska  (Mary Peltola)
  • Nebraska  (Dan Osborne, independent)

Possible in this particular year.

  • Maine  (primary in June)
  • Iowa  (primary June 2)
  • Florida  (primary Aug 18)
  • Montana  (primary June 2)

We have our work cut out for us, but it’s not like we have to run the table.
There are multiple paths that get us to the 8 seats we need.

Active fundraising for Senate races

We are likely to actively raise funds for the following Senate candidates:

  • Jon Ossoff (GA)
  • Dan Osborne (NE)
  • Janet Mills (ME)  if she makes it through the primary

By “actively raise funds” I mean 1) set a goal, 2) put up a thermometer, and 3) hopefully have Angel matches.

Jon Ossoff in Georgia

Jon Ossoff is the primary reason we’re going into Georgia. 

We’ve made contact with a staffer to discuss fund field organizing and boots on the ground, and we got a general YES.  Time to make contact again to get more specific before we put up a thermometer!

Otherwise, it’s probably a very low impact state, with a safely-Republican (and gerrymandered) legislature and seemingly strong Republican statewide candidates (Brad Raffensberger for Governor would be hard to beat).  But we’ll keep an eye on it, for sure.

Dan Osborne in Nebraska

We supported Dan Osborne in 2024 and though he didn’t win, the election was close.

Janet Mills in Maine

We supported Janet Mills in her last election for governor.  If the nazi tattoo guy wins the nomination, we will not be supporting him.

Fundraising for other Senate races

Let’s talk for a minute abut the senate races.  We think a ton of money will be pouring into most of these races, so we won’t actively raised funds for most of the the Senate seats, but we will make thermometers for the folks who will likely want to donate to them anyway.

We will have links to the others in the sidebar for those who want to donate even if we aren’t setting a particular goal and won’t have angel matches.  As things get closer to November, it may be that we’ll run flash fundraisers for some of these Senate candidates if a longer-shot race begins to look winnable or if some rich prick dumps a lot of money at the last minute.

So we’re still focusing on the races where our money isn’t salt in the ocean, but given the current environment, we think it’s reasonable to have the other options here, as well.

Look for those links to show up in the sidebar over the next few days.  ActBlue requires a goal to be set, so we’ll set all the passive fundraising thermometers at $5k. 

Remember, if you donate through the Balloon Juice thermometers, you will have the option of your information NOT BEING SHARED with the campaigns.

Fundraising Efforts – Part 2: The Senate

You will see this pop-up windows on computers – unless you have popups turned off.  If you do have popups turned off generally, you can enable pop-up windows for specific sites, and you could enable that for ActBlue.

I don’t know how that works on phones, so if anyone who makes a donation from a phone is willing to let me know whether you see a popup or anything similar, that would be much appreciated.

Making thermometers as soon as we confirm arrangements with the campaigns

  • Jon Ossoff (GA)
  • Dan Osborne (NE)

Existing senate thermometer (we met our goal for Mary Peltola)

  • Mary Peltola (AK)

Making thermometers now for these races

  • North Carolina  (Roy Cooper)
  • Ohio  (Sherrod Brown)
  • Texas  (James Talarico)

Making thermometers for the Democratic candidate once each primary is over

  • Michigan  (Gary Peters, retiring, primary Aug 4 )
  • Minnesota  (Tina Smith retiring, primary Aug 11)
  • New Hampshire  (Jeanne Shaheen retiring, primary Sept 8)

If you click on Targeted Fundraising (in the top menu bar, just under the balloon guy) you will find thermometers donated to the passive fundraising we are doing for Senate seats.

Any questions?

 

Fundraising Efforts – Part 2: The SenatePost + Comments (77)