US COVID-19 levels continue to climb gradually
Over the past week, test positivity for SARS-CoV-2 rose from 10.2% to 11.2%
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) August 29, 2025 at 1:56 PM
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USA: Map Shows Rising COVID Cases as Stratus Variant Spreads.
"The national test positivity rate hit 9.9% in the past week, up 1.4% from last week"
"CDC data show the sharpest increases are in the U.S. South, where test positivity rates in some states have hit 15%"
Source: archive.md/rDonC— Denis – The COVID Info Guy (@thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social) August 28, 2025 at 7:14 PM
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COVID VACCINE INFO:
List of states requiring a prescription for a COVID vaccine at CVS or Walgreens t.co/ZqCZwxwa57
COVID vaccine availability at CVS buff.ly/JHG5vml
💉COVID vaccines are no longer available at CVS in Massachusetts, Nevada or New Mexico.
Vaccines.gov is still down.
#medsky 🛟😷🧪— Ruth Ann Crystal (@drruth.bsky.social) August 30, 2025 at 2:02 PM
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#RFKJr wants to take away #COVID #vaccines (and then move on to #childhood #preventable #diseases). You can see it in the works now. Write to your member of #Congress now. This makes it easy to do so. @defendpublichealth.bsky.social actionnetwork.org/letters/writ…
— Gregg Gonsalves (@gregggonsalves.bsky.social) September 2, 2025 at 6:56 AM
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U.S. COVID-19 Data Dashboard Update
PMC 3.0 is ready to roll out, with updates coming after the holiday weekend starting Sep 2. CDC reported the biggest summer transmission rise in 4 years, though technical issues delayed updates. August 29 data will be used to verify the increase.
pmc19.com/data/— Denis – The COVID Info Guy (@thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social) August 29, 2025 at 10:15 PM
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Weekly U.S. COVID update:
– New cases: 133,057 est.
– Admissions: 9,314 (+15%)
– In hospital: 6,268 (+12%)
– In ICU: 762 (+20%)
– New deaths: 295
– Average: 249 (+11%)— BNO News (Health) (@health.bnonews.com) August 31, 2025 at 8:55 PM
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So far this year, more than 3.8 million COVID cases have been reported in the U.S., causing 270,363 hospitalizations and 17,584 deaths.
— BNO News (Health) (@health.bnonews.com) August 31, 2025 at 8:55 PM
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It's hard to say for sure with the holiday weekend interruption, but we might be close to the peak for the summer. Let's see if Friday's data confirms the slowdown.
For comparison, last summer peaked at 2.6%. A peak this week would match my forecast on both timing+intensity.— JPWeiland (@jpweiland.bsky.social) September 2, 2025 at 7:55 PM
PSA: From a physicist with a stricter construction of ‘worthwhile’ data:
I took quite an interest during the height of the covid pandemic in what was good information and good science communications, and what wasn’t, and spent a lot of time trying to get under the hood of a lot of the data analysis and modelling produced by others. There are some amateurs, as well as professional scientists from fields outside epidemiology/virology, who produced good data visualizations, dashboards, etc. And there are some bad actors.
To the point: Michael Hoerger (@michael-hoerger.bsky.social)? and Jay Weiland ([email protected]?) are producing estimates of daily covid-19 infections in the US from the CDC’s wastewater data. There is a strong scientific consensus that wastewater covid-19 concentrations cannot be used to produce estimates of community covid-19 prevalence…
What Michael Hoerger and Jay Weiland are doing is not science. We simply don’t know how to estimate community prevalence from wastewater covid-19 RNA concentrations with any degree of accuracy.
Neither Hoerger nor Weiland have any expertise at all in infectious disease epidemiology. Their methods are not published, or even outlined to the degree that they could be reproduced. They have both shown that they don’t understand the data they are analysing (they mistake CDC’s Wastewater Viral Activity Level as a proxy for RNA concentration, for example, when in fact it is normalized over a rolling baseline.)
Why does this matter? When science does not have an answer, and amateurs on the internet give an answer anyway, and dress it up as science, it is tempting to say ‘that’s the best available information” and pass it on. But when RFK Jr. tells us what causes autism, it won’t be the best available information; we will still have no credible scientific information on the cause of autism, nor on the community prevalence of covid-19. We shouldn’t report either alongside credible sources.
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Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is trying to phase out COVID vaccines. How much damage can he do? A leading vaccine expert warns of the Trump Administration’s effort to limit COVID shots at pharmacies, which would be “disastrous” for the American public.
— The New Yorker (@newyorker.com) September 2, 2025 at 11:44 AM
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Literally the one thing the dude did that worked was the COVID vaccine and he is considering dumping it because of RFK.
— Bradley P. Moss (@bradmossesq.bsky.social) September 1, 2025 at 10:22 AM
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"This is not the future the American public desires or deserves."—Seth Berkley @science.org
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/…— Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) August 28, 2025 at 2:34 PM
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I love looking at this graph, showing it to my students, and sharing it on social media, even though it unerringly brings out the trolls.
This is the efficacy curve of Pfizer's mRNA COVID vaccine.
This, people, is what ended the emergency phase of the COVID pandemic. Despite what RFK Jr says.— Raywat Deonandan (@deonandan.bsky.social) September 1, 2025 at 11:32 PM
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Just to see who could kill the most Americans! Could Trump and RFK Jr. Ban the Covid Vaccine? | www.rollingstone.com/culture/cult…
— CHBstills (@chbstills.bsky.social) August 30, 2025 at 5:58 PM
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there is no question in my mind that rfk jr is the most dangerous person in this administration and that his eugenicist ideology threatens the lives of millions of people www.advocate.com/politics/dem…
— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) August 29, 2025 at 4:53 PM
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During a week of chaos at the CDC, the agency chose an anti-vaxxer to lead a #Covid vaccine review. Retsef Levi will chair the newly revamped COVID-19 Immunization Workgroup for the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. He has no background in vaccinology or infectious diseases👇
— Delthia Ricks (@dricks.bsky.social) August 30, 2025 at 11:39 AM
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The birds are migrating and it’s almost flu season https://t.co/C5HxoRCJBM
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) September 1, 2025
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ACIP to review COVID, hep B, and MMRV vaccine recommendations at September meeting
The meeting, scheduled for September 18, will be widely watched amid upheaval at the CDC over vaccine recommendations.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/a…— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) August 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
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Illinois is currently exploring the possibility of purchasing Covid-19 vaccines in bulk straight from manufacturers to make sure everyone will still have access.
— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran.com) August 31, 2025 at 4:34 PM
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Source:
— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran.com) August 31, 2025 at 4:36 PM
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In the wake of new federal guidelines limiting the groups for whom new COVID-19 vaccines are approved, the New Mexico Department of Health plans to take action to remove "barriers to the administration of the COVID-19 vaccine."
— Santa Fe New Mexican (@thenewmexican.bsky.social) August 30, 2025 at 6:49 PM
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A nasal spray reduced the risk of Covid infections in a double blind, placebo controlled randomized trial
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam…— Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) September 2, 2025 at 11:16 AM
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New antiviral application for COVID-19 preventive drug submitted to FDA
Ensitrelvir, known as Xocova, is already approved for use in Japan.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) September 2, 2025 at 4:01 PM
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Long COVID-19: A 4-Year prospective cohort study of risk factors, recovery, and quality of life.
In a 4-year follow-up of 816 COVID patients, 29% developed long COVID per WHO criteria. This finding matches higher global prevalence estimates and highlights the enduring burden of post-COVID illness.— Denis – The COVID Info Guy (@thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social) August 30, 2025 at 2:22 AM
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Some neurocognitive deficits from COVID-19 may last for years, study suggests.
"For people struggling with post-COVID “brain fog,” new findings suggest that cognitive recovery is possible, though it may take years"
Source: archive.md/6V72f— Denis – The COVID Info Guy (@thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social) August 28, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Good news, actually:
For people struggling with post-COVID “brain fog,” new findings suggest that cognitive recovery is possible, though it may take years. A large-scale study recently published in Brain, Behavior, & Immunity – Health tracked cognitive changes over three and a half years and found significant improvements in most mental functions. Yet even with this progress, some participants continued to experience deficits in mental speed and flexible thinking.
Since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, patients have reported lingering symptoms such as mental slowness, forgetfulness, and trouble concentrating—often described collectively as “brain fog.” While several studies have examined the short-term impact of COVID-19 on brain function, little was known about how these symptoms evolve over several years…
…[R]esearchers from the Mount Sinai Health System launched a long-term prospective study with a large, diverse sample of adults who had confirmed COVID-19 infections. Their goal was to track cognitive changes using validated testing methods and to determine which factors might influence the pace and extent of recovery…
Over the following 42 months, most cognitive domains showed signs of improvement. In particular, verbal learning and memory recall demonstrated the largest gains. For example, verbal learning scores improved from an initial average of 1.26 standard deviations below the mean to within the normal range by the end of the study period. Language abilities, such as phonemic and semantic fluency, also improved over time.
Processing speed and executive functioning showed more modest gains and were still below average after three and a half years. While there were measurable improvements, the average scores for these domains remained about 1.5 standard deviations below the norm, suggesting lingering impairments for some participants.“Most earlier studies stopped at 12–24 months; our study was among the first to show trajectories out to 42 months (3.5 years), providing stronger evidence of both recovery and plateauing,” Becker said…
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Shingles vaccine linked to lower heart attack risk
The absolute rate difference ranged from 1.2 to 2.2 fewer events per 1,000 person-years among all vaccinated adults.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/m…— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) August 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
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H5N1 avian flu strikes South Dakota turkey farm
The outbreak marks the first at a US commercial farm in nearly 2 months.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/a…
Photo: Morgan Lieberman/Mizzou CAFNR/Flickr cc— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) September 2, 2025 at 2:38 PM
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Anedata, but…
This is from a friend who is a medical professional in the eastern parts of the West and the western parts of the midwest. I don’t want to give any other identifying details, but I’ve known them for a long time, and trust them 100%.
It seems to be pretty localized to their region and other medical pros in surrounding states and the West and East aren’t seeing this … yet. I’m publishing this with the advice to take it with a grain of salt, but be aware. Given that our government is not tracking bird flu, and we have inside knowledge they have told people NOT to test, I think anecdote is probably how we are going to figure this out. This may not be it, but I am going to publish it, with the caveat that there is a lot of uncertainty here.
“In the last three weeks I have seen A TON of very high fever (103-104F), severe body aches, hypoxia, fatigue. Wheezing seen only in known copd/asthma so far. No pneumonia on exam or X-ray. Labs ranging from normal to high to very high inflammatory markers.
Pneumonia/respiratory PCR and cultures all negative. Some of these patients are septic and needing ICU care. I think maybe bird flu is now human to human transmission. And it’s rapidly spreading in Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas.
None of those states are tracking it. These aren’t isolated cases. It’s entire families and spreading in facilities. And we have no idea what it is. In the last three days I have admitted nine. Same symptoms, no source. Diagnosed more that were okay to go home. Our respiratory swabs pick up 19 viruses and four bacteria. All negative. The hospitalist keeps saying how weird it is that we can’t identify it, and we already know that bird flu doesn’t show on our swabs because we don’t have the right antigen binders.
They are usually being admitted. Presenting nearly septic, with high HR, borderline low blood pressure and hypoxia – some have high white count, lactic procacitonin, crp. But some have negative workups. I hope I’m wrong. I will be happily wrong if I am.”
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Wisconsin measles outbreak grows as Ohio reports family cluster
Two people have been hospitalized in Wisconsin's outbreak centered in Oconto County.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/m…
Photo: CDC— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) September 2, 2025 at 2:39 PM
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As measles exploded earlier this year, Texas officials looked to the CDC. Under the Trump regime, no one at the agency answered. The outbreak soon became the worst the United States has endured in over three decades www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdi…
— Delthia Ricks (@dricks.bsky.social) August 31, 2025 at 3:42 PM
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The virus took the world by storm. It was declared a "public health emergency of continental concern." What's the current status? With the U.S. aid cuts, one doctor says, "We're flying blind."
— NPR (@npr.org) September 2, 2025 at 7:33 AM
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PAHO sounds alert for local chikungunya outbreaks, expanded Oropouche spread
In a chikungunya genotype shift, detection of ECSA at least four countries is concerning due to the risk of adaptation.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c…
Photo: microbiologybytes / Flickr cc— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) August 29, 2025 at 11:59 AM
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CDC cuts back foodborne illness surveillance program
The CDC's FoodNet program has reduced required surveillance from eight foodborne pathogens to two, a move some experts warn could leave the country more vulnerable to outbreaks.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/f…— CIDRAP (@cidrap.bsky.social) August 28, 2025 at 11:32 AM
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Vibrio species bacteria is one of the 6 food borne pathogens for which the CDC recently discontinued surveillance. Louisiana is currently experiencing an uptick in infections and two deaths have occurred so far.
www.yahoo.com/news/article…— BK. Titanji (@boghuma.bsky.social) August 28, 2025 at 12:20 PM
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Sharing is caring, social media peeps…
The pre-vaccine era was HELL for kids.
We have already failed them on gun safety, we cannot fail them on the issue of vaccines.
#VACCINES cause Adults!— BK. Titanji (@boghuma.bsky.social) September 1, 2025 at 8:58 AM
rikyrah
Going to seriously hunt for a COVID vaccine shot😒😒
Rusty
My work is having a flu vaccine clinic next week, and the Covid vaccine was an option to add. It’s run by CVS and I am signed up for both, I guess we will see if I can get the Covid shot. I’m in New Hampshire which is supposedly a state where its available and no prescription required.
Ten Bears
Still hasn’t grasped culling the weak and ill-informed is culling their base
I hesitate to point that out
I have long advocated for poll-testing: the yahoos have to prove they’re well enough informed to make a conscious decision … but this works for me. If they kill themselves being stupid this late in the game then they were too stupid to vote in the first place
G’da would’ve muttered something in his beard about how there’s only one cure, it is what it is ..
(Headlining this later today)
Aziz, light!
Thank you AL for your diligence.
The media continues to normalize vaccine deniers (Sec. Brainworm and the others in his orbit) by calling them “vaccine skeptics.” Sad.
lowtechcyclist
@Aziz, light!:
That pisses me off too, something fierce. Skepticism is a fundamental component of doing good science, especially with respect to one’s own work. Have you shown what you think you’ve shown, or are there holes in your argument? Are there other possible explanations?
Does RFK Jr. apply this sort of scrutiny to his favored ‘theories’? Of course not. That means he’s not a skeptic, period. With respect to vaccines, he is, as you say, a vaccine denier. Or an anti-vaxxer. And certainly a completely dishonest person.
Trivia Man
I was waiting in line at a wal mart yesterday, guys in front and behind knew each other and were having a conversation about cars and work. One told about someone at work who was worried about covid, he laughed snd said “thats not a thing anymore.”
I chimed in. Its absolutely a thing, its rising with back to school and it is most prevalent in the SW. i wish id had see these updates, but im glad i said something. It is just “common knowledge” that its over.
Scout211
If it’s CVS, they will still likely have to follow the CDC restrictions for adults: age 65 and over or have a qualifying medical condition. If you have a qualifying medical condition, bring a letter from your doctor’s office.
RFK, jr stated that anyone would be able to get a shot if they want one but that’s not what was announced by his CDC.
Trivia Man
@lowtechcyclist: I always hate the trope “they worship science! They refuse to admit it can be wrong!”
Actually – its the exact opposite. We rely on science BECAUSE it welcomes correction. ‘This is what we think we know now, we will act on that. If you provide evidence of another explanation we will correct the science.’
New Deal democrat
First, the good news: COVID deaths continue to be much less than they were last year, meaning that the 52 week total of deaths has continued to decline. As of August 2, they were only 31,800. Since the preliminary death totals in the subsequent weeks are also much lower than they were last August, we could very easily be under 30,000 deaths for the 52 week period within a few weeks.
Now the not so good news. From a low of 57 deaths preliminarily in the week of July 5, during the week of August 23 there were 128 deaths. The final count for the week of July 5 was 165 deaths, just above the all time low of 149 set the previous week. This suggests that deaths will increase to about 350 once the final tally for the week of August 23 is finished.
Wastewater particles as updated by the CDC through the week of August 23 on a preliminary basis declined slightly to 4.14 per mL, vs. their June low of 1.16, and vs. 9.14 one year ago. If deaths ultimately increase 3.5x from their June lows, that would give us about 500 deaths per week now, once the final tallies are recorded in about a month. Since last year at this time there were about 1,000 deaths per week, that still means a sharp YoY decline in the cumulative number of deaths.
After almost 3 months the CDC also updated its variant data, indicating that variant XFG is roughly 80% of all cases. This is a recominant (back-cross) of previous variants LF.7 and LP.8.1.2. It does not appear to be particularly virulent, although it is more immune-evasive.
Finally, I take issue with the anonymous comment in the post as follows:
“There is a strong scientific consensus that wastewater covid-19 concentrations cannot be used to produce estimates of community covid-19 prevalence… What Michael Hoerger and Jay Weiland are doing is not science. We simply don’t know how to estimate community prevalence from wastewater covid-19 RNA concentrations with any degree of accuracy.”
I have followed the data carefully for the full 5+ years since the start of the pandemic. Whether or now what JP Weiland does qualifies as “science” or not, unlike Hoerger, unlike Nate Silver, and unlike a host of DOOOMers and pollyannnas before them, his forecasts have consistently panned out. Most notably last autumn he forecast that the winter “wave” was going to be very low compared with all of the previous such waves. And he was absolutely correct. He further forecast that there wasn’t going to be much of a summer wave this year. Also correct. And a month ago he indicated that the next wave had finally begun. And here we are. That’s why I follow him so carefully.
Additionally, I take specific issue that wastewater levels cannot be used for forecasting. For 4 years I have been using simple algebra, as per above in this comment, to suggest that wastewater leads infections, which lead hospitalizations, which lead deaths. While some of the data has disappeared, wastewater trends have consistently led the trends in deaths for the entire time I have been commenting. And although the correlation is by no means exact, as a general rule if wastewater concentrations have doubled, deaths will probably rise by to 1.5 -2.5x their current level in a month or so.
Finally, a note on measles, which continues to perk along at the rate of about 20 new documented infections per week, as of August 18 up to 1408. Infections continue to break down roughly by 1/3’s in age groups 0-5, 6-19, and adults. Hosptializations continue to run at about 13% of cases, mainly among the youngest. 92% of cases are among the unvaccinated. There have been no new deaths in months, so that number remains at 3. All of this is complexly unnecessary.
Scout211
More than 1,000 HHS workers demand RFK Jr.’s resignation in new letter
(web archive version )
Jay
As always, thank you, Anne.
Shana
I was, unfortunately, a vector for the 115 people who attended our daughter’s wedding over the weekend.
Burrowing Owl
In Northern Colorado (one of the 16 states that normally waits for CDC panel sign off), pharmacies require a prescription now. PCPs will be getting the new vaccine but don’t yet know when. I haven’t heard of action at the state level to fix the barriers; that doesn’t mean state public health isn’t trying.
I have scheduled my Covid vax at a pharmacy in Wyoming, one of the states that isn’t restricting the vaccine. If I can get one closer to home sooner, I’ll do that. (Is ´vaccine tourism in Wyoming’ a Googlenope?)
if you need to claim a high risk condition to get it, physical inactivity is good, or being a former smoker, or pregnancy for some. No one can verify. Obesity for many Americans.
My inclination is to try to get the vaccine before the CDC group meets—who knows what they’ll do or recommend.
Thank you as always for this, Anne Laurie. You are a gem.
Ten Bears
Ping! Headlined. BJ sure taking a long time to load today …
Burrowing Owl
@rikyrah: You should be okay in Illinois, either at a pharmacy or from your PCP. Good luck, and take good care of yourself!
terraformer
I signed up for the latest COVID vax at Walgreen’s – but it said “RX required”
I assume this is yet another instance of Kennedy assfoolery. I asked my doc to provide one, but WTAF? I’ve never needed a prescription for a vaccine before – it was just “we have this vax, you need it” and “okay, do it”
Scout211
@terraformer: There are 16 states that have a state requirement that vaccines must be approved by the vaccine panel (meeting later this month) even if the CDC approves. But 13 of those states will accept a doctor’s prescription in the meantime. 3 states will not allow any vaccines without that panel recommendation.
It’s actually state law, not RFK,jr. But the restrictions are all RFK,jr ( 65 and over or qualified medical condition). And he replaced the vaccine panel members with like-minded “experts” so if you can get a shot with a prescription now, I’d say do it because the vaccine panel recommendations are a big wild card.
bluefoot
Here in MA, I was at Wegmans over the weekend and they had a sign that Covid and flu vaccines were available. I don’t know if they are requiring a prescription for the Covid vaccine or not.
I am trying to decide if I should get the vaccines now while they are available (words I never thought I’d have to say) or wait until later in the fall to make sure I am maximally protected during holiday travel
ETA: because of my birth year, I got a measles booster, just in case. My doctor suggested a titer first, but it was faster and easier to just get the vaccine.
H.E.Wolf
Thank you, Anne Laurie, for these weekly public health reports. Much appreciated!
Trivia Man
@New Deal democrat: Interesting comparison on that 52 week death total. 30,000 is approximately similar to total automobile fatalities. It used to be 50k+ but we worked hard on education and engineering to save 20,000 lives a year.
Just like the ozone layer, humans can absolutely improve if they want to.
Scout211
. . .
It looks like MA is one of the 3 states that you are not allowed COVID shots at all until the panel meets.
Are you able to travel to another nearby state?
lowtechcyclist
@Trivia Man:
Actually motor vehicle deaths are around 40K a year. But fatalities per 100K population are only about 40% of what they were when I was growing up, and that’s probably a better way of looking at the progress over time.
ETA: So Covid deaths are now well below motor vehicle deaths, which in a way says they’re not really a thing anymore, in terms of the level of concern one needs to have. We don’t give much thought to the risk of getting killed when we go out on the roads, and other than getting our periodic Covid shots, most of us don’t have to worry much about Covid either.
VFX Lurker
Thank you for posting this, Anne Laurie. Again, you help save lives.
Check CVS. CVS is offering the updated COVID-19 vaccine in Los Angeles County. Californians under 65 must check the “Yes! I am at risk!” box to affirm that they have a medical condition (ex: BMI > 25) that puts them at risk.
I scheduled myself and my husband for shots this evening at a local CVS. Our insurance should cover this. Will find out soon.
Chris T.
@VFX Lurker:
“I am at risk, I have an ordinary human-being style immune system.”
moonbat
Thank you as always, AL, for keeping us informed. You lit a fire under me with that map showing infection rates across the nation (I’m headed to Texas in a couple of weeks) so I went and got my Covid, flu, and shingles vaccinations today.
Soapdish
@lowtechcyclist:
@lowtechcyclist:
A neighbor was diagnosed with COVID yesterday.
A FB friend was diagnosed with COVID over the weekend.
A few people here have indicated they’ve recently had COVID.
I haven’t heard anyone say they were in a car accident recently.