Just someone blast John Fetterman into the fucking moon:
The 53-to-47 vote against taking up the measure was almost completely along party lines, reflecting a deep partisan divide on the Iran war as the Senate delivered the first clear test of congressional resolve since the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Operation Epic Fury, began across Iran four days ago.
Senators Tim Kaine, Democrat of Virginia, and Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, tried to force action on the measure. They invoked a provision of the 1973 War Powers Act, which requires that resolutions to terminate offensive hostilities be considered under expedited procedures.
Mr. Paul was the only Republican leading the effort, and no other G.O.P. senators joined him in support of the measure.
Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania was the only Democrat to break with his party and vote against the resolution, in keeping with his vocal stance in support of Israel and reluctance to place limits on the president’s authority to act in its defense.
Is he being blackmailed over his wife’s legal status or something or did the stroke really just fuck him in the head like this? I am curious what kind of information environment he is in right now and who has his ear.
Speaking of dickhead Democrats, I have no idea what the fuck this guy Greg Landsman is smoking in regards to Iran, but he was foolish enough to be interviewed by Isaac Chotiner. He’s an absolute idiot.
These monkeys keep trying to fuck this football, with the expected results:
The Justice Department, after calls by President Trump to investigate former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., scrutinized whether Mr. Biden and his aides broke the law in using the autopen to sign presidential documents, but was ultimately unable to move forward with making a case, according to three people briefed on the matter.
The department’s failure to build a criminal case against Mr. Biden and his aides is the latest example of its increasing inability to follow through on Mr. Trump’s demands and bring indictments against those he wants to be criminally targeted. Some of those cases were rejected by grand juries, some were rejected by judges and some, like the autopen case, were abandoned by prosecutors.
But the fact that prosecutors even pursued the matter to begin with reflects the degree to which Mr. Trump has sought to use the levers of government to undermine Mr. Biden’s presidency by seizing on an unsubstantiated theory: that the pardons Mr. Biden issued in his final months in office were invalid because he did not have the mental capacity to consent to them.
Everything about these guys is the biggest, dumbest, waste of time and energy it’s just so irritating that more information about the world is available than at any time in history and we are the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet.
As to the disaster in the middle east, it appears that Hegseth is about to go full Bombs Away LeMay:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and America’s top general on Wednesday morning previewed a major bombing campaign on Iran now that the U.S. and Israel have asserted greater control over the country’s airspace.
“More and larger waves are coming. We are just getting started. We are accelerating, not decelerating. Iran’s capabilities are evaporating by the hour, while American strength grows fiercer, smarter and utterly dominant,” Hegseth said during a press conference.
“More bombers, fighters are arriving just today. And now with complete control of the skies, we will be using 500-pound, 1000-pound and 2000-pound GPS-and-laser-guided precision gravity bombs, which we have a nearly unlimited stockpile,” he added.
Hegseth noted that the U.S. had largely been using standoff munitions — such as cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles fired from ships or ground positions — in the campaign so far.
They are going to be firebombing Tehran before this is over. In other news, Hegseth and FAS spokeswoman of the year Karoline Leavitt, have determined that the media naming the names of dead soldiers is being done to hurt Donald Trump:
At a briefing Wednesday, CNN’s chief White House correspondent asked Leavitt about a comment Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made at an earlier Pentagon press conference, where he complained that the “fake news” was reporting on the deaths of the fallen service members to make President Donald Trump “look bad.”
Collins and Leavitt entered into a heated back-and-forth at the briefing after the reporter asked about Hegseth’s remarks and news that Trump intends to attend the dignified transfer of the remains of the six soldiers, who were killed Sunday in the attack on a command center in Kuwait.
“Is it the position of this administration that the press should not prominently cover the deaths of U.S. service members?” Collins asked Leavitt.
“No,” Leavitt answered. “It’s the position of this administration that the press in this room and the press across the country should accurately report on the success of Operation Epic Fury and the damage it is doing to the rogue Iranian regime that has threatened the lives of every single American in this room.”
In other news, gas is now a dollar more expensive than it was on election day, and this is kind of a big deal- Qatar has stopped LNG production and shipping, and they supply 20% of the worlds LNG. On top of that, the President today came up with some hare-brained idea to get people to keep shipping:
As concerns over the global oil supply intensify, President Trump has pledged that a little-known U.S. government agency will step in to insure ships sailing through the Persian Gulf, a move he said will maintain the “free flow of energy” as the Iran war continues.
The Trump administration has tapped the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, or DFC, for the job, with the president noting on Truth Social that the agency will provide political risk insurance to “all shipping lines.” Mr. Trump also said the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipments, if necessary.
The decision comes as other global insurers have backed away from underwriting maritime trade activity in the Gulf amid concerns that vessels could become collateral damage in the Iran war. Insurers such as NorthStandard, the London P&I Club, and the American Club have issued notices in recent days that they are suspending insurance for ships traveling through Iranian waters and the Gulf due to escalating risks from the war.
I fear unless this is nipped in the bud, this will become the biggest heist in human history- Trump will make us liable for trillions. Please tell me I am wrong. Don’t have a ship you want, insure it to the tits and send it to Hormuz.
All of this means that things could get very very inflationary and bleak very very soon.
Thinking about that really bummed me out. I am going to go sit outside.
Big congrats to all the new primary winners. Look forward to supporting you.
Suzanne
I like dickhead much more than feckless.
Why Democrats ever sign on to Republicans’ wars of choice is a mystery I have never been able to fathom.
Archon
“Our bombs have to kill all of you to save you”, doesn’t seem like the best way to win the hearts and minds of Iranians but what do I know.
TONYG
Regarding fucking Fetterman … I am ignorant of medicine (and of everything else). But, in my experience with relatives, a stroke doesn’t not change a person’s personality. What it seems to do is weaken the part of the mind that prevents a person from saying the quiet parts outlook — therefore revealing the person’s true character, for good or ill. So maybe the post-stroke Fetterman is what he always was, but now with no filter.
Baud
Nix Besser
I struggle to say what word best describes my feelings toward my senator. Disappointed is way too mild. Betrayed is probably more like it. I can’t wait to oust him in 2028.
Raoul Paste
@Baud: Of course, Trump wants a blank check.
He always does. But with the mood of the country, I don’t think it’s forthcoming.
bbleh
I keep sending respectful letters to Fetterman urging him to resign. He hasn’t yet.
The only rational clue I have to his behavior (some comments he made a while back) is that he got spooked by Trump’s re-election and decided his only hope was to be Joe Manchin (neglecting the fact that he’s NOT Joe Manchin in several crucially important ways). I do not expect him to survive a primary challenge. (As to irrational motives, there is speculation aplenty, but I don’t see much value in contributing to it).
I WILL say that some cracks are definitely beginning to show. The absurd incoherence of the various pronouncements about our war-no-it’s-not-a-war-it’s-a-police-action. The subpoena of Pam Blondi, led by Nancy Mace (!). And what appears to be erosion of the sand under Castle Noem as the buses approach.
Volunteer! Donate! Organize! Let’s bulldoze them back into their gated compounds!
Oh, and as to rampant inflation, I’d be just as worried about a serious deflationary episode — I think the financial markets’ dependence on the AI bubble is more of a risk than an oil shock — but I’m not actually very worried about either, FWIW.
Old School
You’re wrong. Trump will never pay.
Castor Canadensis
@Baud: Funding is fine, but what’s the size of the stockpile? At one point the US claimed to be out/low on 155mm howitzer shells, as they’d sent them to Ukraine.
(A 155 shell is a really common/inexpensive munition, and you need a gazillion a day of them)
Chetan Murthy
@Castor Canadensis: Unless Trump wants boots-on-the-ground, one supposes that the real constraint is air defense interceptors. -Maybe- missiles used to take out ground-based air defense, too.
If he sends in the ground troops, oof. Oof.
Castor Canadensis
@Chetan Murthy: Strongly agree: I’m wondering if he’s let all the stockpiles run low (:-))
Suzanne
@Archon:
Ezra Klein has many dumb opinions, but he also often has good guests on his podcast. Today he had Ben Rhodes, who was a senior analyst under Obama, and he shared a lot of insight about why Obama pursued the JCPOA instead of a dumb war.
Eyeroller
@Chetan Murthy: Sounds like he’s going to expect the Kurds to die for our cause again.
Baud
MT is still pretty Trump friendly.
frosty
@Nix Besser: Betrayed is how I feel about my PA Senator also. I sent money to his campaign and knocked on doors for him.
I apologize for not phoning his office at all the last week or so but I’m weary of trying. Based on their votes, none of them pay any attention.
Tasha
The interwebs say that Fetterman’s wife got her green card more than 20 years ago and then got naturalized. What could be the weak point?
Shane in SLC
I choose door #3: Fetterman was always a raging asshole.
frosty
@Castor Canadensis: When we were sending 155s to Ukraine there was one factory in Scranton making them. They went to three shifts a day. I haven’t read anywhere that we’ve ramped up production any more than that.
Old Dan and Little Ann
I took a class of 2nd graders outside for recess today for the 1st time in 3 months. It was 40 degrees and not a cloud in the sky. A blue bird day. It was glorious.
WaterGirl
@Baud: They can see the writing on the wall, even if T can’t.
WaterGirl
@Old Dan and Little Ann: I bet the kids were thrilled!
Geminid
@frosty: There were new 155mm ammunition production lines set up in Texas a couple years ago. A Turkish company supplied the machinery.
Gin & Tonic
Didn’t I once see something to the effect that if you see Isaac Chotiner as an incoming call, you take your phone and hurl it into the ocean?
Nix Besser
@frosty: I hear you. I feel like my contributions have been wasted. I don’t care about his neurological health or whether he was just a wolf in sheep’s clothing all along. He has to go.
Gin & Tonic
@frosty:
And when Zelensky visited that factory it ended the career of Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: Interesting, I didn’t know about this. Sigh. The G(r)OPers are such traitors.
axios.com/2024/09/25/johnson-zelensky-fire-ambassador-markarova-ukraine
WTFGhost
Well, when I’m fatigued, simple solutions are extremely appealing to me, it’s just, I’ve trained myself not to leave myself open to an obvious attack/mistake. (“Make a mistake, get attacked,” is just normal for me – I expect to be attacked if I make a minor error.)
So I can see Fetterman falling for “all we’re doing is telling a sovereign nation that they aren’t allowed to develop weaponry capable of harming us!” er, I mean, “all we’re doing is making limited strikes against Iran’s missile stockpile and production facilities!” Someone, somewhere, pointed out that when enough Very Serious People get on TV, and announce that something is necessary and appropriate, then it’s okay to be a bloodthirsty, bigoted asshole who celebrates human suffering.
I think I’m paraphrasing heavily due to 9lb hammer and an aptly named wine, Freakshow. But the gist is there: if enough people repeat an unsupportable moral position as if it were moral, people eventually assume someone else has figured out why the obviously wrong choice is, in fact, right.
Ohio Mom
Landsman is mine. The Republicans in Columbus jiggered Ohio’s Congressional districts and as a sop to Democrats, gave us a Blue district in southwest Ohio.
I’ve been thrilled to have a Democrat represent me, and most of the time Landsman seems smart enough. But I agree, who would sign up for an interview with Chotiner? And Landsman is way too rah-rah on this war.
Ohio Dad had never liked Landsman and is currently gloating that he had him pegged from the start.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic:
THE NEW YORKER’S ISAAC CHOTINER INTERVIEWS SANTA CLAUS
Old Dan and Little Ann
@WaterGirl: Swinging, chasing, digging in the ground with rocks, sitting in the small remaining snow bank (get up, you’ll get wet pants!) taking off their coats (put you’re coat on, it’s 40 degrees!) Complete happiness. My vice principal told me, of course you were the only class outside today. Lol…
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: That’s hilarious! And I’ve never read a word of Chotiner.
Suzanne
@frosty: @Nix Besser: I hate this clown, too. This is a swing state and I feel like Bob Casey losing freaked him out. I mean, Rick Santorum was a senator here not too long ago.
scav
Military Recruiting Campaigns in the pipes?
“Only You can die anonymously for your country.”
Maybe go full Oprah? “A tomb of the Unknown Soldier for you!” “And a tomb of the Unknown Soldier for you!” “A tomb of the Unknown Soldier for you!”
“Loose Lips sink Donald’s Spirits.”
Geminid
@Suzanne: Fetterman took a very hawkish stance on the war in Gaza when it began in October, 2023. That was a year before Bob Casey lost. This vote is consistent with Fetterman’s positions over the last 28 months
Ed. I would add that I believe John Fetterman does not intend to run for reelection, so he’s not concerned with electoral politics anymore.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Surprised nobody commented on Lindsay Graham’s comment today:
Funny that later this century, we’ll come up on the 1000 year anniversary of the First Crusade.
So yes, he really thinks this is a Crusade.
The modern GOP really are mostly homicidal maniacs.
jimmiraybob
@scav: “Military Recruiting Campaigns in the pipes?”
I’ve noticed a lot of new advertising which to me signals a concern about having enough bodies to feed to the war machine that they are building.
Don’t rule out reinstating the draft.
WaterGirl
@Old Dan and Little Ann: I’m sure the kids love you for it!
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: All I know is, don’t pick up the phone if he calls. :-)
Suzanne
@Geminid: Agree w/r/t Israel and Gaza. Some of his other actions make me think that he feels like he needs to trend conservative to get reelected.
I remember him saying over and over during his campaign, “The union way of life is sacred”. Don’t hear much about labor issues from him these days.
jimmiraybob
When I predicted, during Trump 1.0, a return to the Medieval Age people thought that I was a bit daft.
hells littlest angel
Occam’s Razor says he’s just a rotten motherfucker.
WTFGhost
“In a spectacularly corrupt incident, this reporter has learned that the DoJ scrutinized whether JRB and his aides broke the law, by using a common shortcut to appending signatures to documents. Apparently the orders to undertake this investigation come from high up in the Trump administration – perhaps at the indirect urging of President Trump himself? We, the people of the United States, deserve answers to these questions!”
Scout211
BUT NOT WIMMENS! MANLY MEN ONLY!
Geminid
@Suzanne: I think Fetterman’s kind of checked out. It’s like he’s just going through the motions. But I don’t Fetterman was really cut out to be a politician to begin with. He became a ccelebrity as part-time Mayor of Braddock, though and then he got sucked in.
I remember a Washington Post interview of his wife, summer of 2022. Giselle Fetterman described her husband as an “introvert.” That had not occurred to me before, but I think she would know. I’m sure some successful politicians are introverts, but it’s really a job for extroverts.
Another reason I think Fetterman won’t run is that he is not a healthy man. And his father is wealthy and has supported him before, so he doesn’t need the salary.
YY_Sima Qian
Reposting from prior thread –
I think Trump threatening Spain w/ economic coercion, because Spain refused to allow the US to utilize its bases in the country to support any aspect of the war against Iran (including transits & logistics), has largely flown under the radar in the US:
Martin
@scav: You can’t spoof this. Even Starship Troopers ‘Service Guarantees Citizenship’ isn’t even enough – we’ve deported numerous veterans in the last year.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: The EU’s economy is about the size of the US’. If the EU gets it shit in gear, it should be able to endogenously generate the economid demand and coordination to deal with its supply chain issues (e.g. rare earths), and esp. since it could coordinate with Far Eastern democracies. I mean, they’re all seeing that they can’t trust the US.
I know this is a bit of wishcasting. The EU needs to act with urgency to get their military house in order, so they can proceed with all the rest. B/c as long as they’re vulnerable, they’ll kowtow to the US. It is what it is.
YY_Sima Qian
Also reposted from prior dead thread –
Israel is doing everything it can to prevent a net positive outcome in Iran (might not succeed, since Israel cannot dictate events on the ground by operating from the air or by proxy), but color me surprised (gift link to FT article below):
Israel’s strategy as summarized by Citrinowicz (not necessarily his personal preference):
That is the attitude of the most malevolent & violent kind of hegemon, very much that of European & American colonial powers toward the peoples they colonized, dominated & brutalized.
The GCC states may not prefer an Iran that is united & reinvigorated, even if no longer under the Islamist regime, they certainly would not want an Iran riven by anarchy & civil war, because such destabilization will spill over into the wider region (& civil war will draw in regional players from all directions, & pit them against each other). We have seen that in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Sudan, etc.
At some point soon, & we have already seen early signs over the past couple of years, Israel’s naked imperialism will precipitate a countervailing coalition, & the declining empire that has been writing blank checks will not always be in a position to back it up or bail it out.
Suzanne
@Geminid: You might be right.
I know people talk about him like he was some kind of progressive lefty darling, but I have always seen him more as an old-school labor-friendly Dem. Almost, like, straight out of Norman Rockwell days, when Pittsburgh was all about steel and hard hats and stuff. Most of the Dems from those days were pretty conservative relative to today. So I guess I don’t find him surprising, just disappointing.
Gretchen
They started calling up people stationed in the US to deploy to, presumably, the Middle East on Monday.
Sister Golden Bear
@Gin & Tonic:
Unfortunately, I didn’t bookmark it, but earlier today I saw an amusing set of screenshots on Bluesky of a mock-New Yorker article where Isaac Chotiner recounts trying to find a public restroom in an airport, and every time he tries asking someone for directions, they immediately flee without talking to him.
wjca
The draft still exists. It just isn’t in active use at the moment.
Sign up is now automatic, thanks to a new law. But otherwise, we still have draft boards (I’m actually a member of my local one), and the infrastructure is still in place. So no “reinstitute” required; just activate and it’s happening.
Martin
@Baud Pretty sure the deadline to file as a candidate was 5PM today. Daines yanked the rug out from under the GOP here. I don’t think they will have a candidate. There’s one independent who is left leaning, and 4 Dems in the primary, and 1 libertarian.
Chetan Murthy
@wjca: I remember when I turned 17 (I think it was) we all went down to the post office, filled out our Selective Service cards. That was in 1981.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: That is -music- to my ears! I so hope it’s true!
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Danny Citrinowicz strikes me as a very level-headed and knowledgeable man. I remember his analyses in the weeks leading up to the war. He was very sceptical as to whether the Iranian security state could be dislodged. Citrinowicz did not say it couldn’t be done, but he said it would be harder than people thought because they’re embedded so deeply and this is an existential struggle for them.
Chetan Murthy
No lie told. In her lectures Sarah C.M. Paine describes land empires, and what it’s like to be a neighbor, and it fits Israel to a T. And (AFAICT) while she never comes out and explicitly calls Israel out for it, she repeatedly alludes to Israel being an empire in the way it operates.
There’s no way Israel will tolerate a stable, well-run Iran: simply no way. Or …. maybe if such an Iran were a complete sycophant of Israel. But why would a nation of 93m people (that’s been around continuously for millennia) agree to be bossed-around by a pissant nation of 10m ?
Scout211
@Martin: This guy is running as an Independent.
And
And there is a Republican :
Gretchen
Chris Hayes said that Pete Hegseth reminds him of his actor friends doing a video audition for a tough-guy part.
Old Man Shadow
The government of Israel does not seem like it will ever feel “safe” until the area from it’s eastern border to the western borders of India and China is a graveyard and white Evangelical Americans and Republicans are all too happy to help.
Martin
Ok, there is a GOP candidate in Montana. And the deadline was indeed today. Dems have a decent chance of picking up this seat.
Scout211
@Martin: See my #58. Daines has endorsed Republican Kurt Alme.
Geminid
@Suzanne: I think Fetterman’s reputation as a “progressive” came from him endorsing Bernie Sanders in 2016 and again in 2020. Sanders’ policies were to the Left, but he also this Populist, outsider versus insider thing going and that might have the attraction.
And people could see in Fetterman what they wanted to see.
I remember checking out social media the day after the primary, when he easily beat Lamb and Kenyatta. Some Lefty was gloating, like ” I love the smell of Centrist tears in the morning.”
Tben he saw the news that Democratic Majority for Israel had just endorsed Fetterman, and he had cheerfully accepted. Mr. Lefty was like, “Wait, what! Noooo.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I think it will take the US sizing Greenland, or sending the USN to do gunboat diplomacy against Spain, for the Europeans to get a move on de-risking from the US.
The EU had talked about dependency on Russian gas for years, but did little until Putin invaded Ukraine again in 2022. However, once that happened, the vast majority of Europe just went ahead & did it, costs be damned. (Unfortunately as it turned out, the EU switched dependence to ME gas & the much more expensive US gas; but, there aren’t too many alternatives around.)
The EU has talked about dependency on the PRC market (which is resolving itself due to dissipating competitiveness of most European industries against Chinese competition) & the PRC centered supply chain (which is deepening & presents existential competitive threat to a number of European industries) for years. De-risking attempts have been tentative & halting, often incoherent & non-strategic. However, If the PRC goes ahead & massively arms Russia w/ weapons & munitions to use against Ukraine & possibly Europe n the future (which the PRC easily has the spare defense industrial capacity to do), I think you will see Europe move w/ alacrity to decouple as soon as possible, whatever the cost.
I think it is clear that the MAGA US presents as much of a threat to European liberal democracy as Putin, much greater threat for economic prosperity, & getting there on security. We can see from the official Trump Admin. documents (the NSS & the NDS), as well as actions. Europeans understand the need to de-risk from the US, but in action & rhetoric they have been even more tentative, incoherent & myopic than they have been wrt the PRC, & further confused by pervasive presence of hopium & copium.
If they wait until a Russian re-invading Ukraine or Trump seizing Greenland before making decisive course corrections, it will already be too late & the future cost much higher.
I actually think military capabilities is not the critical vulnerability. Putin is in no position to sweep across the Baltics or Poland, not while he is stuck in Ukraine. The US is not yet directly threatening European security on the military front. OTOH, the European digital ecosystem (“AI” tools, social media, consumer APPs) is almost entirely run by US corporations, most of whom are increasingly Trump aligned. Then you have genius moves such as Starmer giving Palantir access to UK government data. I would say Europe is even more vulnerable to subversion by the US than by Russia, as the result of decades of deep integration across all spheres.
kalakal
@Old Man Shadow: The Government of Israel’s attitude towards being threatened seems to be based on that of the German General Staff prior to WWI. Those guys could have controlled everything on the planet except St. Helena and would have claimed they were surrounded
Darkrose
@WaterGirl: There’s also this:
Why one small American town won’t stop stoning its residents to death
Chetan R Murthy
@kalakal: There was a geography contest for kids, that Putin attended. At one point, he asks a contestant (kid): “Where do Russia’s borders end?” And when the kid is stumped, Putin says “nowhere”.
gene108
@bbleh:
I think Casey’s loss also spooked him. Turning the relatively socially conservative Casey into a caricature that wants to turn all your kids trans really blew my mind.
It’s not like Casey’s an unknown in PA politics. He was governor and then Senator. Yet the smear campaigns worked.
YY_Sima Qian
@kalakal: Israel wants absolute security, but that is unobtainable because absolute security requires absolute insecurity for its neighbors, which is not sustainable. It is a deep pathology & myopia that is understandable from an anthropological & psychological perspective (Israel is not the 1st regional or global hegemon to be enamored by the possibility of achieving absolute security, nor will it likely be the last), but it has not done/does not do/will not do Israel or the region any favors.
Another Scott
@frosty: @Geminid:
As always, it’s complicated. And expensive.
BreakingDefense.com (from October 2025):
FWIW.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Darkrose
@Geminid: I thought he was a progressive because as Lieutenant Governor he was outspoken about being pro-immigrant, LGBTQ, and legal weed. I didn’t look that closely because I’m not a PA voter though.
RevRick
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: “The modern GOP are just a bunch of homicidal maniacs.”
I have to disagree. As Umberto Eco pointed out in his essay on fascism, fascists favor action over thought and glorify the hero who gives his all for the state. That makes them a death cult. Today’s GOP is a mirror of fundamentalist Shiaism. Both are obsessed with and seek martyrdom. They are both infernal theocracies.
thruppence
Whatever our disappointments with Fetterman, would you rather have had Senator Oz? That was the choice.
Doug R
LNG? British Columbia is working hard on it:
www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/natural-gas-oil/liquified-natural-g…
Jay
bsky.app/profile/adamrothman.bsky.social/post/3lzjsubfiu223
gene108
@Old Dan and Little Ann:
When I was a little kid in Ann Arbor, they’d let us out for recess in the fall as the first snow flurries started, but before they anything really stuck.
We’d get so hot running around at recess we’d take our coats off or at least unzip them.
Kids are built differently regarding tolerating cold weather.
Another Scott
@Martin:
BozemanDailyChronicle.com:
FWIW.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Chetan R Murthy
At age 45, I used to complain to the lifeguards at my YMCA pool about the water being too warm. At age 61, I no longer complain, and find the water to be juuuuust fine. Yeah: we get old, we just aren’t as hardy as we youstabeeeeee.
gene108
@Suzanne:
I live in South Jersey, in the Philly media market.
I still can’t get over how much of the shit they threw at Casey stuck. Spend hundreds of millions smearing any politician, I guess, will eventually work.
Martin
@Another Scott: Will once again point to Chinas focus on speed/time to market over capital efficiency as perhaps one of their greatest advantages. And that’s entirely cultural.
Chetan R Murthy
@Martin: I remember some time ago, there was a discussion about this sort of thing, and at the time, the discussion reminded me of Morita&Ishihara’s _The Japan That Can Say No_. That is to say, it seemed at the time, that it wasn’t something uniquely Chinese, but rather, that the failing seemed to be American, or maybe European. Idunno. It’s possible I’ve misinterpreted though, and Japan would suffer from the same problems we do.
YY_Sima Qian
Van Jackson has consistently argued that Israel’s (& sometimes Trump’s, depending on the hour of the day) objective in Iran is state collapse. Below is his take on the macro forces at work. Like most lefties, I think he over indexed on the political-economic factors (capitalism in crisis), but it absolutely a key factor & one not much discussed by MSM (& then only obliquely & partially). I have not not seen evidence that Israel & the US are systemically targeting schools & hospitals (as Israel has done in Gaza), so disagree there, but the piece is nevertheless worth reading.
Five Uncomfortable Truths About War with Iran
UN-DIPLOMATIC
MAR 01, 2026
Alongside many others, I predicted the US would bomb Iran again, unleashing hell from the skies, and yet I’m finding it hard to process.
A few words to help make sense of this and where it’s going.
First, there is no “national” (US) purpose in war with Iran. It’s what the Israeli government wants, and US foreign policy pretends that Israeli primacy in the Middle East is good for US global dominance. That’s a farce, but it’s also official policy. If the US were a real democracy, this would not be happening.
Second, they (the US and Israel) don’t want regime change; they want Iranian state collapse. Trump and Netanyahu both now say they’re hoping for regime change, and indeed these latest strikes have decapitated the regime. But if that’s what they sought, they wouldn’t be targeting hospitals, schools, and critical infrastructure. These were not solely counterforce (ie, military to military) strikes.
Additionally, there are claims circulating widely on social media that Israel has been targeting leftists in Iran, in hopes of destroying any coherent political force from cohering in the country. Israel has also definitely targeted the building where the leader of the Green Movement, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, has been under house arrest since 2011, which would further support that claim. What that illustrates is the degree to which this renewed air war against Iran is not about national security in any normal sense. It’s also a repudiation of the safety and political will of “the people,” whether American or Iranian.
Third, this war must be understood as a sign of imperial decline. It was on that basis that I predicted it. And as my friend Spencer Ackerman rued this morning:
Fourth, one of the casualties of imperial decline is the credibility of the empire itself. You might have noticed that over the past decade or so, foreign governments stopped believing American threats and promises. When they make deals, it’s in deference to power, not credibility. US counterparts always hedge their bets. It’s almost like American words don’t matter. To that end, Trump has now twice used diplomacy for the sole purpose of deception to wage illegal war on Iran. This makes US diplomacy little more than toilet paper. Indeed, a senior Iranian official told Drop Site News,
As a village idiot once said, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me—you can’t get fooled again.”
Fifth, the part of all this that even many smart people seem not to get is that imperial decline is not randomly happening, and it’s not happening because the US state is run by politicians with poor judgment. Neither is it because America’s political leadership are evil. The root source of imperial decline is a crisis of capitalism that gets managed through zero-sum patches, improvisational fixes that sacrifice others…and that aim at sustaining oligarchy. How oligarchic capitalism sustains its wealth- and power-hoarding is through the permanent war economy. Oligarchy cannot survive the tendency of the declining rate of profit within capitalism without pouring resources into the permanent war economy. And the permanent war economy requires a permanent war footing.
The parlor game of “Will Trump strike this specific country?” misses the point that the US state must be in conflict in many places to sustain its form of governance, which is oligarchy + elections. Iran is downstream of that, but even if caprice led the US to not strike Iran, it would need to bomb a dozen other places anyway. The US will seek out reasons to police others by force on behalf of those who benefit from the imbalance between the forces of capital and the forces of labor. That’s why Trump committed to $1.5 trillion for the military against the advice of his own advisers, who admit they have no idea what to even spend that ungodly sum on. The real humane promise of “great-power competition” for so many liberal national security wonks was an illusion that they could perpetuate the trillion-dollar war machine without having to bomb brown people on a fortnightly basis. Sure, they were prepping for World War III, but they also told themselves nice stories about how laying down the tracks for war was the best way to avoid it. Joke’s on them, because now we’ve got World War III prepping plus bombing brown folks on a fortnightly basis.
The thing I can’t shake in all this warmaking is the personal angle of the cogs in the machine. If that’s you, how do you sleep? If you work for the US national security state, you’re complicit in a system of habitual war crimes. Can you deny that? What good do you think you’re doing?
And if you’re an ally of the US state, you’re an enabler of a dying empire that can’t stop killing people illegally. Can you deny that? What good do you think you’re doing?
In whose interest is any of this? Not the people, that’s certain.
Martin
@Another Scott: The GOP candidate came in 3rd in the 2024 primaries with 6% of the vote. They never bothered to complete the candidate questionnaire put out by the state newspapers. That’s a lot of selling going to be needed.
ArchTeryx
@Suzanne: Ohio was a swing state not that long ago, too. Now it’s the Alabama of the North. I fear that Pennsylvania is going that route too, as is most of the Upper Midwest.
Martin
@Chetan R Murthy: The US used to work that way more. Then we turned finance in the largest corner of the economy and they set the rules now. Manufacturing will never be ascendant so long as finance is guarding the profits.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: How do Turkiye and Egypt fit into this regional hegemonic scheme you describe? And Saudi Arabia? Those are not insignificant countries, and all three have reestablished good relations with the others. And they have good relations with the U.S. They don’t seem intimidated by Israel either.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: & a companion piece from Van Jackson
What’s This War About, Anyway?
UN-DIPLOMATIC
MAR 03, 2026
With the dumbest war in living memory officially popping off, I had to do an impromptu emergency episode of the pod, live from my local beach on the Kapiti Coast. I frame the episode as “five truths,” but I go well beyond what I said in my previous post on the subject.
A few additional critical points that I didn’t address in either the new episode or the previous post.
Time is Always Against the American Way of War
Two factors I look for in collisions of force are cost-exchange ratio and sustainment capacity (magazine depth). The first is highly unfavorable to the US—the US way of war is extremely costly, meaning that time is inherently on the side of its enemies. The second factor, capacity, is harder to judge. The US has no more than 10 days of munitions before it has to siphon from its Asia stockpiles, everyone knows it, and it’s why senior Pentagon officials advised against this war. The US simply doesn’t have the capacity to continue the war without quagmire-level boots on the ground.
So Iran wins the cost-exchange ratio but who wins the capacity battle? It’s harder to say because Iran too has limited capacity without foreign support. The best estimate I’ve read of Iranian capacity to continue the war is 50-60 days, which would mean “they” win (not clear who “they” is at this point, especially since the real goal of the war, as I explain in the latest episode of the pod, is state collapse, not regime change).
One of the chief contradictions of American empire, which I can expound on further another day if there’s appetite for it, is between the way the US fights and necessity of the US always fighting. The US struggles to win military conflicts by any meaningful measure, yet it’s the most war-prone actor in the international system. And yet, if you’re going to be a country always at war it would make sense to fight efficiently, in low-cost ways, but the American way of war is the opposite, which is also why the US spends more on the military than any country in the world by a wide margin. All of this nonsense should haunt you with the question of who actually benefits from this kind of war-addled existence.
Europe is Its Own Worst Enemy
Europe is about to become one of the biggest patrons of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Europe is famous for its exposure to energy shortages. The initial reports are that prices of LNG are about to increase between 50% and 130%, and it could get much worse if combat doesn’t end soon. What that means practically is that Europe will have to seek out Russian oil and gas for at least as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which could be a long-ass time if I’m right that the whole point is for Israel to induce a civil war in Iran.
So the Europe that’s condemning Iran and siding with America’s illegal war is the same Europe that subsidizes the Russian war on Ukraine. That self-same Europe is also using Russia as its “pacing threat” to justify military buildups that in turn justify austerity. Brilliant strategy, guys. Next you’ll tell me that France is going to stockpile more nukes, just because, you know, vibes. Oh wait, that’s actually happening too.
Imperial Decline is Embarrassing
American humiliation is happening in real-time as we discover the US is far less capable and has far less resolve than DC elites assume. That humiliation is a price paid for believing in the illusion of American primacy in a world that has clearly become multipolar. My years-long arguments about the emergence of a multipolar world is real shit with consequences, not an abstract thing. It’s playing out right now.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: They could form the core of the countervailing coalition against the new regional military hegemon – Israel. The KSA provides the cash (but it may not be so flush w/ cash, the country now runs a current account deficit), Egypt the manpower, & Türkiye the industrial capacity.
I am not suggesting that Israel could achieve dominant regional hegemony w/o challenge, but that dominant military hegemony is how the current Israeli government, most of the natsec apparatus, & indeed the political establishment including much of the opposition, are conceiving Israel today & for the future. IMO that is dangerous & self-defeating, even delusional in the medium term, but it may well take a major break before the Israeli leaders snap out of it, such as the US no longer willing or able to underwrite Israeli regional hegemony, or a costly conflagration versus a countervailing coalition.
Jackie
@Geminid:
I agree. Our main task meanwhile, is to keep Fetterman from switching parties before ‘28. I sense that if Dems actually manage to flip the Senate in ‘26 by one or possibly two, Fetterman will switch parties. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not hopeful.
Fetterman is FFOTUS’s main Dem supporter.
wjca
Which makes it a tad ironic that they have embarked on a war of whim against the premier Shia nation. Perhaps a bit of jealousy, that the mullahs have ling since accomplished what they have not?
Chetan R Murthy
@RevRick: Rick, when I read your comment, I wondered: doesn’t Salafist Sunni Islam[1] also have the characteristics you describe ?
[1] as opposed to other strains of Sunni Islam.
P.S. I don’t know much about Islam, but then, I don’t know much about Christianity either (except for having grown up in the Bible Belt; still, only been in a church twice (assuming cathedrals in France don’t count)).
Martin
Ollie North on Fox News as a ‘military analyst’ defending the war arguing that Iran shouldn’t have missiles. If Fox were a journalistic endeavor, they’d have asked if maybe they have missiles because you sold them to them, were caught and convicted of it?
Chetan R Murthy
@Martin:
Shorter Ollie: “only -our- clients may possess and use weapons; anybody else who does, is a terrorist”
Fair Economist
@Martin: That would be a hell of a rug pull, for Daines to hand the seat to Democrats. I suppose the MT legislature will rewrite the law to let the Republicans put somebody in. But even then, I recall the MT Supreme Court seems not entirely bought so they might invalidate such a law.
RevRick
@kalakal: When Mark Twain visited the “Holy Land,” he was profoundly shocked and disappointed. All he found were dusty, little villages that were only a backwater in the Ottoman Empire province of Syria. Jews and Arabs coexisted in relative harmony, but it was only a way station between the heart of the Empire and their control of the Moslem holy cities through the Hejaz.
The socialist Theodor Herzl, motivated by pogroms in the Russian Empire, conceived of a return to Israel, building a socialist state around kibbutzim. Waves of Jews, fleeing persecution, took up his call and emigrated to this Ottoman province. The kibbutz created islands of prosperity and this attracted Arabs from more desolate lands and the population tripled from 1880 to 1900. Since both religions had emotional attachments to the land, tensions rose. Violence occasionally broke out. With the outbreak of WW 1, Britain, France and Russia formed designs for a post Ottoman future (the Russian ambassador actually drew the map). Meanwhile, Balfour essentially promised both Arabs and Jews the same territory, taking “Palestine” as a protectorate. This state of affairs continued until the UN drew up a map partioning Palestine between Arabs and Jews, making Jerusalem an international city. The Jewish community reluctantly accepted, but the Arabs adamantly refused and when Israel declared itself an independent state, Arab armies attacked. The nascent IDF defeated them and when the war ended, Israel had gained territory, thousands of Arabs were made refugees, Jordan took control of the West Bank and Egypt did so over Gaza.
After Nasser overthrew the Egyptian King, he adopted an aggressive policy towards Israel and expelled UN peacekeepers along the frontier. Israel responded by invading the Sinai, soon joined by the British and French who wanted to seize control of the Suez Canal. But the Eisenhower administration pressured them to return their gains back to Egypt and UN peacekeepers returned to the frontier. An uneasy peace remained until 1967, when Nasser again expelled the UN forces, resulting in the preemptive invasion by Israel that captured the Sinai, Gaza, and the West Bank. In 1973, the Arab nations attacked again in the surprise Yom Kippur War, initially inflicting heavy losses on the IDF, but eventually the IDF beat them back, this time capturing the Golan Heights. By then there were seething refugee camps and Israel controlled the Arab West Bank and Gaza. The PLO was been formed and began terrorist attacks, including the kidnapping and murder of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics. Under President Carter, a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt was signed and the threat of invasion was eliminated. But that act, seen as a betrayal by Palestinians, led to more random violence, which when coupled with the growing radicalization of Sunni communities, led to the Intifadas.
For its sixty years of existence, the people of Israel developed a siege mentality, that their very existence was always in danger. And with a huge influx of Jewish refugees from the Soviet Union, which had continuously fomented Arab rage, that added to Israeli paranoia that Arab threats to drive the Jews into the sea were way more than rhetoric.
What we have are two traumatized peoples, locked in bitter enmity. And when Hamas conducted its surprise attack, all that Israeli rage was unleashed, first on Gaza, then on Lebanon, then on Iran and now on Lebanon again. Israel has adopted the eliminationist stance that the Arabs used against them. It’s “we will kill you before you can kill us.”
As someone with Jewish ancestry and a Jewish son-in-law, I can only grieve at the suffering of the Middle East. For the first half of the 20th century there was a festering sense of injustice done by that other, which then exploded during the second half, and now seems to be devolving to its ugly denouement.
Gretchen
I’ve heard some reporting that there was a military target a mile from the girl’s school. I’m wondering if they’re using AI to aim missiles and aren’t having humans check it. That was the reason that one software company pulled out of working with DOD.
Martin
@Fair Economist: I think there’s more animosity between GOP factions than is generally apparent. See Tillis going hammer and tongs at Noem.
YY_Sima Qian
Citrinowicz’s latest assessment of the Israeli-US war on Iran:
I am not sure we have seen much activity from Kurds, yet.
The conventional Iranian Air Force & Navy were never going to be much of a factor. The asymmetrical naval capabilities of the IRGC (the speed boats) has not shown up in the Persian Gulf, yet, as far as I can tell. That could be a combination of IRGC degraded capabilities from the air strikes, & Iran waiting before escalating to higher runs of the ladder (open season on any & all non-Iranian shipping in the Gulf), topped by mining the narrow shipping lanes.
More formal alignment by the GCC states against Iran would be diplomatically damaging, but I do not believe they bring meaningful additional capability to the air campaign against Iran, especially given how crowded the air spaces already is w/ Israeli & US planes. Marginal for an Iran that is fighting for its survival like a wounded & cornered animal. GCC states joining in the offensive against Iran will also invite much larger retaliation on their oil/gas export infrastructure, resulting in longer lasting damage.
YY_Sima Qian
@RevRick: That’s a pretty succinct summary.
rikyrah
He has never paid up. Risk your ship if you dare
YY_Sima Qian
Boots on the ground in Iran, even if they are SpOps, what could possibly go wrong? (link to MEE article below):
How are such SpOps teams going to be sustained. If one of these SpOps units gets into trouble, how big of an operation will it take to get them out. Even if the SpOps are to operate w/ local Kurdish or Baluch forces, but they won’t be going after senior IRGC leaders or nuclear scientists that way.
& is Israel going to send SpOps troops into Iran w/ the US, as opposed to Mossad agents (who are probably already all over the country)?
Chetan R Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: crikey, they’re headed straight for a fucking Quagmire.
kalakal
@RevRick: Excellent summation. The only bit I might add is how relations between Jordan and Palestinian refugees deteriorated to the point of open combat between the Jordanian Army and the PLO, the mass movement of the those refugees to Lebanon leading to the formation of Black September and increased regional instability espescially in Lebanon.
wjca
At the current rate that US munitions are being expended (note that munitions are already being relocated from South Korea, because what’s in the Middle East is running out fast), there really are only two options:
1.Declare victory and move on to the next shiny object to catch Trump’s attention.
2. Send in ground troops.
OK, three:
3. Run out of ammo and turn to whining about the scapegoat de jour.
Hegseth is probably too dumb to grasp that ammunition cannot be conjured out of thin air. Rubio, for all his faults, isn’t quite that dumb. And, unlike Hegseth, he also has a clue about how sending in ground troops will pkay politically. Especially as the body bags start coming home.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I don’t know if you followed negotiations between Israel and Syria this fall and winter, over arrangements in southwest Syria. US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack mediated. They didn’t get much attention but I thought they were important.
Anyway, Israel was pushing hard for a “humanitarian corridor” from the Golan Heights to Suwayda, capital of the majority-Druze Suwayda Governate. One aspect of matter was that Israel’s Druze community wanted it, and the other was that the Israelis were being pushy assholes.
They didn’t get it though. One reason was the Jordanians objected, and the other was that the US supports a unified Syria. So Barrack put his foot down, and Israelis didn’t appeal to the White because they know Barrack has his boss”ss confidence.
So what kind of powerful hegemon is this, that can’t even get a 60 kilometer access corridor in its own back yard? They could have seized that corridor in a couple hours if they choose to.
You talk like the US can’t say no to Israel, but it did in this instance. It can do the same in others if it chooses. And it will, because Israel’s political strength in the US is eroding, and in both parties. Israel’s clout might bounce back some, but it will never be what it was at the beginning of this decade. The Israelis can see that even if others can’t. That’s one reason they were in such a rush to get this war going.
Someone said the other day that a future Iran will need nuclear weapons to defend itself. I said that an industrialized nation of 90 million people with strong natural borders can defend itself without nuclear arms But no, you said; Iran would need nuclear weapons because Israel– a nation of 10 million people 500 miles away, on the other side of Syria and Iraq– will be a standing threat to them.
I would think that threat might better be met by a strong nationwide air defense. But you have built Israel up into this uncontrollable, incorrigibly belligerent nation that cannot be stopped and cannot be constrained, only deterred with nuclear weapons.
And normal principles of balance of power seem not to apply to Israel; that’s how you can speak of Israel as a regional hegemon and not consider Egypt, with 120 million people next door; or Turkiye, with 86 million people right across the Mediterranean Sea; or the most influential nation in the Muslim world, Saudi Arabia, on the other side of Jordan and right down the Red Sea from Eilat (you do concede they have potential though!).
Speaking more generally, I think people are drawing too many conclusions from the past 30 months, and especially the last five days, and these distort analysis of the future. The way I see it, this has been a very exceptional period for Israel and the region. There hasn’t been a Middle East war of this scope, intensity or duration in a century. Maybe this will be the new normal, but I do not think so. I can tell that’s an appealing paradigm to many people here, but I do not share it.
Geminid
@Martin: Thomas Massie’s KY-04 contest is a prime example of animosity between Republican factions. I think that primary is scheduled May 19. This war will likely help Massie’s cause.
Shalimar
A thousand years is not coincidentally the length of time Jesus will rule his earthly kingdom after the Apocalypse. This is what Graham expects to happen.
Martin
Ok, looks like there was a Republican who filed right at the deadline – the current US Atty there.
Shalimar
@Martin: Daines chose his successor and made sure no other Republican could run.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I appreciate the long response. Being a regional hegemon that is dominant militarily does not mean such a hegemon dictates events everywhere every time. Not even the US during its unipolar moment could do that.
You had suggested that, once the hostile Islamist regime in Iran is overthrown & the “war being over”, Israel might not act w/ the same aggressiveness as it does now. What I see is the trend line of Israel behaving w/ ever greater violence & ever less restraint since ’82, & certainly since the post-Rabin era, & leveraging its air power to kinetically influence events w/ ever greater frequency & ever further afield. Members of current Israeli natsec apparatus & Israel political class (including the opposition) are increasingly speaking in terms of absolute security, w/ literally zero consideration for the insecurity that other countries might feel. That is the mentality of an unrestrained hegemon, in fact rather reminiscent of the Cheney/Rumsfeld/Bolton gang during the 1st GWB term, minus the democracy promotion.
If Israel is still sometimes constrained in its behavior vis-à-vis the Sunni Arab states, I would argue the threat from Iran is the main factor. My take is that Israel acceded to Jordanian objections in Syria because Israel needed Jordan to provide defensive depth against Iranian drones & missiles. If the Iranian threat evaporates, what incentive would Israel still have to give Jordanian wishes consideration? Since 10/7/23, the prospect of collapsing its decades old peace treaty w/ Egypt has not deterred Israel from mouthing off about driving Gazans into the Sinai, or conducting ethnic cleansing w/in the Gaza Strip.
To effectively defend against the aerial capabilities that the IDF has demonstrated in 2025 & 2026, a ground based IAMDS (integrated air and missile defense system) is far from sufficient. Such a passive defense system will eventually be breached & then dismantled, especially when facing stealth aircraft. In addition to an advanced, dense, multi-layered & multi-faceted ground based IAMDS (including the associated long range sensors & networked command & control), Iran would need a competent & competitive air force equipped w/ modern fighters & supported by modern AWACS & electronic warfare aircraft. Basic military strategy requires one able to hit as as well as defend, so that Iranian Air Force will need have long range precision strike capability, supplementing an arsenal of MRBMs, cruise missiles & long range drones, to be able to hold the Israeli air bases at risk. All of the above is extraordinarily expensive, particularly for a country the size of Iran, more expensive in fact than a small nuclear arsenal. No version of Iran will be able to afford an adequate IAMDS & a competitive Air Force in the near to medium term future. In any case, I can’t imagine an Israel in pursuit of absolute security will not see such a build up as an existential risk, just as it still sees the Iran post-collapse of the “Axis of Resistance” as an existential threat.
Of course, the regional hegemon can still be constrained by a global hegemon, but the US’ willingness to constrain Israel has steadily decreased since the 1980s.
I do agree that an Israeli hegemony over the entire ME region will likely prove relatively short lived, because the foundation is brittle & limited by Israel’s size & population, & such a militarist posture will be ruinous for its economy. A countervailing coalition is very likely to form that will expose it’s lack of defense & strategic depth (w/o a coalition w/ the surrounding Sunni Arab states to serve as buffer) & the US’s ability to underwrite Israeli regional hegemony will continue to erode, possibly the same for willingness. However, I am not sure the majority of the Israeli natsec class in power (as opposed to retired) is able to see that far. In the meantime, the Israeli proclivity to take kinetic actions, damn the consequences, will cause a lot of instability, w/ global repercussions, as we are witnessing. This is before we consider the plight of the Palestinians.
I think we just have different readings of what is motivating & animating Israel, & thus different prognosis for the future. Either of us could be wrong, to any degree, so we will just have to see.
Aziz, light!
@RevRick: Thank you Rick for your very thoughtful write-up. I’ve never seen a better one.
My sister was a member of the 1972 Junior Olympic Team, at the Munich Games not to compete but to live in the Olympic Village with the U.S. athletes. There with the other Jews, who included swimming champ Mark Spitz, she hunkered down for days of fearing she would soon be murdered. An experience like this tends to galvanize some very strong lifetime views.
Hers, not mine, as I cannot in good conscience support any part of what Israel is doing.
YY_Sima Qian
Yikes, I hope we are not in for the Tanker War 2.0:
NotMax
@YY_Sima Qian
You have any thoughts to share on China dredging to build up land in the Spratly Islands and building fortified military installations on them, kind of like permanently* stationary aircraft carriers? Takes a goodly chunk o’ change, not just to create but to maintain.
*Permanence is iffy. The ocean has infinite patience and wins most every time. One super typhoon in the right location and — poof.
NotMax
@NotMax
Edited for clarity:
the disputed Spratly Islands.
The Pale Scot
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
“This is a religious war, and we will determine the course of the Middle East for a thousand years.”
fuck miss Lindsey and the horse he rode on on
The Pale Scot
@Scout211:
Clean out the MBA and Law schools first, then BA degrees. with ai they will be useless anyway
YY_Sima Qian
@NotMax: This is fairly old news, no? The artificial island reclamations were completed 10 years ago.
The 3 major bases in the Spratleys, in addition to the one on Woody Island in the Paracels up north, really changed the operational environment in the South China Sea (SCS) for the USN & other navies from w/in out of the region.
The bases host long range air search radars (including anti-stealth ones) & SIGINT & ELINT sensors, as well as heavy fighters, AWACS, ASW, maritime patrol, SIGINT, ELINT, EW planes & large drones. These assets, networked w/ mainland based assets, undersea sensors (fixed & mobile) & space based sensors, allows the PLA superior situational awareness covering the entire SCS. The USN has commented that the S
These bases also serve as anchorages & supply depots for the PLAN, the China Coast Guard (CCG), & Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM), allowing the PRC to maintain continuous presence in the disputed seas, in numbers & tonnage superior to the main rival claimants, and respond quickly to any moves by these rivals.
Before these bases were established, PLAN aircraft could only maintain < 30 min on station over the northern Spratleys, & couldn’t really reach the southern feature at all, flying in from Hainan Island. The PLAN could only send task forces to the region for a few weeks of the year, while Vietnam & the Philippines could patrol much more frequently. The PRC had only 7 small symbolic outposts w/ tiny garrisons across the Spratleys to assert its claim, while the Philippines & Vietnam each had 20+. Now the PRC has 4 moderate sized outposts & 3 massive bases, in additional to the large base in the Paracels. The PRC is in the process of building another large artificial island in the Paracels. As the existing one on Woody Island is bursting at the seams.
In additional to peace time advantage in situational awareness, presence & sustainment, translating to peace time sea control, these bases give the PLA an advantage at the start of any armed conflict, including against the U.S., for the same reason. Mutually supporting the PLAN carriers that will almost certainly operate in the region, they will likely make life difficult for any USN submarines in the SCS.
However, such advantage would not last long in a high intensity war. These bases require resupply from Hainan, & are arms or hardened to survive large barrages. The bases & outposts have permanent point defense weaponry, & long range SAMs are stationed at the big 3. Its organic fighter complement + the PLAN carriers nearby, & the anti-ship ballistic missiles based on the mainland, means the US will have to start w/ long range munitions launched from submarines or stealth bombers. It could take nearly 100 hits from these high end munitions to neutralize the island outposts & bases, thus double or triple that number may need to be launched. That would represent a significant diversion from any U.S. effort interfere w/ the attacks against & invasion of Taiwan from the mainland.
I think the really interesting development over the past 2 years, which I have posted about before, is the island building campaign by Vietnam. The total area reclaimed by Vietnam in the Spratleys over that time is approaching that the PRC did in the mid-‘10s. Yet, not a word of protest by the PRC, at least not in public. Instead, the PRC has focused is coercive activities toward the Philippines. In fact, Sino-Vietnamese relations is perhaps the best since the end of the border clashes at the end of the ‘80s.
The PRC is clearly punishing the Philippines for Marcos, Jr.’s alignment w/ the U.S. As for the silence toward Vietnam’s activities, the PRC probably wants to isolate the Philippines and prevent a Filipino-Vietnamese rapprochement against the PRC (as had happened in the mid-‘10s). Perhaps Beijing also calculated that Vietnam would not really be able to challenge the PRC’s presence in the SCS, due to the huge disparity in resources, & the land area reclaimed by Vietnam is spread across 20+ features, so each one is not that large.
YY_Sima Qian
Also, strong typhoons are not frequent in souther SCS, much more frequent in the northern SCS. The PRC reclaimed artificial islands are fortified against strong typhoons, the ones Vietnam is reclaim is not yet so fortified.
Gvg
@Suzanne: Simple. The voters have a history of punishing those who don’t support the wars. Voters are morons about some things.
Gulf War I was run successfully by Bush senior, because he was good with international relations, and had good planners. Then when the objective was easily obtained he didn’t let hubris trick him into extending the war into a quagmire of regime change.
That made the democrats who had objected to that war look like idiots and they lost re election even though Bush lost because of the economy and other democrats won and even gained seats because of the economy. Plus that war was actually justified in that it was clearly just a war of conquest and allowing it would have destabilized the whole post WW order….decades sooner.
But it’s success was a problem in that somehow that one war seemed to put Vietnam and other screw ups in the past and let Americans start acting more and more stupid and aggressive without any analysis before or after by the public. I think it had to do with a long time without a draft and a propaganda mythologizing of the military but I am not sure.
Anyway, IMO the voters cause the politicians we get in general if not specifically. The wars haven’t hurt most Americans or even affected them so….they don’t pick politicians who are against the wars. Wish washy fits the electorate until recently.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Israel did not accede to Jordan’s objections. That wouldn’t have kept this government from seizing that corridor. They acceded to Tom Barrack telling them, “No. This will not happen.”
And while it’s true that Israelis claim they are still theatened by Iran’s Axis of Resistance, they objectively are not. The strategic circumstances have hanged changed and my projections for the future are based on that.
I think the US and other Western nations have excused Israel’s aggressive policies because it was under threat from a dangerous and hostile enemy. It was a real threat too. I’ve many people here minimize the threat, but that is easy to do when they’re living 5,000 miles away. Regardless, that threat is gone now; and going forward, other nations are not going to cut the Israelis the slack they did before this war.
As for Israel’s opposition politicians, I view their bellicosity in light of the fact that this is an election year. With the exception of the Arab party leaders, they will all try to “out hawk” each other.
For instance, Naftali Bennett, who is the most likely Prime Minister in the next Israeli government, has issued very alarmist statements about the threat Turkiye poses to Israel. It’s the old trope, “The Turks are at gates!” Except this time it’s the gates of Jerusalem, not Vienna.
Howver, during Bennett’s tenure as Prime Minister from June 2021 to June 2022, Israel began rebuilding frayed ties with Egypt and Turkiye. Bennett’s was a fragile 8-party ccoalition though, and Netanyahu succeeded in destabilizing it a year in. So Bennett never got a chance to mend relations further. But commerce between Turkiye and Israel increased, because they are natural trading partners, not natural enemies.
So if Naftali Bennett forms the next government, which Bennett will we see: the bellicose candidate of 2026, or the responsible Prime Minister of 2021-2022? I think the latter is more likely..
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I think the 12 Days War had already significantly degraded Iran’s ability to threaten Israel, the current war is entirely gratuitous, & waged to attempt to collapse the Iranian (not just the Islamist) state. Yet, the US jumped in w/ both feet, & most of the West are prevaricating.
I get the sense that the 10/7/23 pogroms, perhaps the shock of failure even more than the shock of brutality, broke the collective brains of most of the Israeli establishment, & a substantial percentage of the population. What w/ all the overt talk of Amalek, ethnic cleansing & genocide of Palestinians specially & ugly racism directed toward Arabs in general, in the mainstream w/o much challenge or push back.
To be clear, I would be delighted if events develop as you suggest, but I just do not see evidence of even a potential shift in that direction. Quite the opposite. Adam L. Silverman had said in the past that Israel tends to tactically & operationally brilliant, but strategically myopic. I tend to agree.
We shall see.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: You’ll have to wait to see any shifts in Israel’s direction until after the upcoming elections. This government is hopeless; but it’s also the most corrupt, least competent, and strategically the most myopic government in Israel’s 78 year history, by far.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Knock on wood, but I am not seeing much shifting from the US or Europe, either. It’s not like non-Bibi governments in Israel had not repeated acted unilaterally, disproportionally & violently in the region. If most of Europes especially is not prepared to condemn unprecedented recklessness from Bibi, w/ secondary effects quite negative for Europe, color me skeptical they are willing or able to restrain Israeli under a non-Bibi government.
I have seen the regional actors attempting to make adjustments, but their attempts have repeatedly been overtaken by Israel & the US attempting to define new realities.
Paul in KY
@WTFGhost: Maybe his stroke elevated his Jewish religiousness in some way that makes him Likud-friendly or simpatico to their visions of Eretz Israel?
Paul in KY
@WaterGirl: Thank you for that link!
Paul in KY
@thruppence: I would rather have Fetterman.