All these rumors have me cracking up:
Former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge (R) is seriously considering a 2010 bid for the Senate seat held by Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter and will make his decision in the next two weeks, according to several sources familiar with his thinking.
Ridge is perhaps the state’s most decorated Republican, having held a House seat for more than a decade, spent eight years as governor and served as the first secretary of homeland security under President George W. Bush. He was also mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in 2008.
If he ran, he would almost certainly face primary opposition from former congressman Pat Toomey, a conservative who came within two points of knocking off Specter in the 2004 Republican primary. Toomey has made it clear that he is in the race regardless of whether Ridge, who is considered to be a moderate, runs.
Polling suggests that Ridge would be more competitive than Toomey against Specter, who left the GOP last week, in a general election. In a new survey by Quinnipiac University, Specter leads Ridge by a narrow margin of 46 percent to 43 percent, while he holds a 20-point margin over Toomey.
To recap, Specter, who voted with the Republicans 70% of the time, was essentially pushed out of the party for his stimulus vote. They will then run the reactionary lunatic Pat Toomey, who can never win the general election. Deciding that doesn’t make sense after seeing polling data suggesting Ridge will be more competitive, the idea of Ridge running is floated. Small problem. Ridge isn’t an anti-abortion fanatic, which means that he is also a dread RINO. This will be fun to watch.
Having said all that, I have been less than impressed with Joe Sestak’s little shtick the past few days, showing up on every talk show possible and hinting that Specter isn’t a real Democrat and the like. He has a D after his name. He is a real Democrat. Now, if you don’t think he is a good fit for the Democratic party, and think you would be a better Senator, then run. But quit playing these little games. You’re an admiral, for goodness sakes. Quit sounding so whiny.
Just Some Fuckhead
Yeah, and if I put on a police uniform and steal a police car, that makes me a cop. Really.
Hunter Gathers
Who knew that Pennsylvania politics could be so intriguing?
Is it too late for Tweety to jump back in? I’m looking for maximum value for my entertainment dollar.
Shygetz
You shall now refer to me as “Sir Shygetz”, which will instantly make me a real knight. For reals.
John Cole
If you register as a Democrat, you are a Democrat. Explain Ben Nelson and the rest of the Blue Dogs, otherwise.
That doesn’t mean they aren’t irritating as all hell, because they are. But they are still Democrats.
Zifnab
Oh please. Lieberman didn’t magically become a Dickasaurus (that’s a breed of DINO, btw) the day he lost the primary to Lamont. And, as you pointed out, Specter voted with the GOP 70-freak’n-% of the time. He’s just to the left of Barry Goldwater. I mean, the man has a (D) in front of his name, but who gives a crap if you can’t rely on his vote?
That said, Sestak hasn’t exactly been the shining bastion of liberalism either, as Nate Silver points out.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/is-sestak-right-choice-for-left.html
But I’m happy to see Sestak plow the Specternator from the progressive end of the spectrum all the same. If the argument in Pennsylvania is going to be “How big a DFH can you be?” by 2010, no one I’m rooting for loses.
Short Bus Bully
These guys have it so backwards. I’m not an Arlen Specter fan by any stretch, but the argument could be made that he is switching parties to better represent the people of his state. That is a very respectable thing to do since that’s what they elected you for. The GOP however could give a shit about the state or the people in it, they just want a red monkey in there to pull the lever.
The GOP these days is all about TOP DOWN LEADERSHIP, while it seems that Obama is taking more of his cues from the mood of the American people, it is the secret to his high popularity numbers. I wish this was commented on a little more.
John Cole
@Zifnab: That is precisely the point. Sestak isn’t a DFH, and what you have is two wolves running around making sheep sounds. Sestak’s schtick is just a self-serving performance, and an irritating one at that.
Cyrus
I get your point – it’s fun watching Republicans run around purging RINOs, so we shouldn’t do the same thing and try to purge DINOs. Still though, Specter is an odd case.
He’s a real Democrat as of a couple weeks ago, but surely we don’t have to call him a loyal Democrat if he doesn’t call himself that. Whining in and of itself might be unseemly, but the content of Sestak’s whine is reasonable.
Aaron
Party affiliation is quite useful (and important) because the party apparatus can use fund raising as a carrot and stick. Specter may not be a liberal democrat, but if we wants to have any chance of re-election, he will need to ensure support of the democratic party. Considering how the Republican party has been browbeating anyone who votes against the party line, having another “not-Republican” in the Senate is a good thing in itself.
Tangentially, I hate the two-party system. I would much prefer a multiparty system and a condorcet election method. Oh well . . .
cfaller96
To be fair to Sestak, I speculate that he’s simply coping with his anger and frustration. Gossip says that Specter decided to switch last week because Sestak was going to announce his candidacy for Senate last week as well. Specter knew that he couldn’t jump after Sestak already declared, so he switched to preemptively cut off Sestak’s candidacy.
That would piss me off too, so I’m not going to hold it against him. Give Sestak a little time and breathing space, and I imagine he’s going to announce anyway. I hope he does- I will drop as much money as I can in Sestak’s bucket to eject Specter, and I don’t even live in PA.
Shygetz
So you’d never say someone wasn’t a REAL Steelers fan as long as they cheered for the Steelers on at least one occasion? Or say someone wasn’t a REAL beerphile if they claimed their favorite beer was Coors? Or, maybe GWB can register as a Democrat and then everything will be the Dems fault, right? Because all you think when you hear about a Democratic politician is how that politician registered to vote, right?
C’mon, John, surely this isn’t your first encounter with colloquialisms. Specter isn’t a REAL Democrat because he doesn’t hew to even a reasonable amount of the Democratic platform. The Blue Dogs have SIGNIFICANTLY more in common with the Democratic platform than Specter.
Napoleon
@Zifnab:
TPM had some good push back on Silver’s conclusion and why Sestak would in fact be a lot better. IMO, PA is the type of state where you need someone more along the lines of a Sherrod Brown and less of a Ben Nelson in order to make up for the Ben Nelsons in your caucus. With Spector you may be getting a Ben Nelson.
WyldPirate
C’mon, John. Being an admiral has little to do with this.
Pennsylvania is a “machine” state politically. Between Casey, Rendell and Ridge, Sestak knows he’s swinging a pretty small tallywhacker with regard to political support in the state. He’s making little waves instead of big ones.
I don’t disagree that Sestak’s whining is demeaning, but you oughta know that some serious cheese-eatin’ is done by most military officers that make flag rank. Political adeptness is required as well.
Shygetz
@Short Bus Bully: Anyone who thinks Specter switched parties because he gives a damn about his constituents is an idiot. He switched parties because he likes his job, and switching parties gave him the best chance to keep it. If his overall constituents’ opinion was EXACTLY the same but Specter wasn’t going to get primaried, he would have remained a Republican.
Zifnab
@Shygetz: It’s six of one, half a dozen of another. Saying, “I only voted for the bill to keep my job” means you’re doing your god damn job.
Matt
I’m not sure where Silver and others got this “Sestak is actually conservative” thing (statistics, I know). Read the transcripts from his Firedoglake chat. He’s a co-sponsor of EFCA and cap-and-trade, he voted for the budget, as well as mortgage cramdowns, and he favors a public insurance plan. He may not be a flaming liberal, but I’ll support him if he challenges Specter.
MattF
I think there’s a good argument for trying to get someone to the left of Specter as the Dem candidate– and Sestek qualifies for that. Given that the leftward movement of Pennsylvania’s political alignment is pretty recent, you’re just not going to find an experienced politician with a state-wide appeal who’s a lot to the left of Specter.
Tattoosydney
US Presidential Election 2024 – A Leftist Democratic candidate competes with a centrist candidate from the RINO party, which split off from the Democrats in 2022. The Republican party candidate rants during the debates about homosexuality and the Rapture, is mostly ignored by the real candidates, gets 11% of the vote, and returns to the Senate to be ignored. I’m not sure which of the Democrat and the RINO wins, but either outcome is pretty much ok.
That is if the swine flues don’t get us.
From my keyboard to the FSM’s noodly ears.
random asshole
I think Sestak is entirely right. Calling yourself a Democrat might make you technically a Democrat, but if he wants to be an elected Democratic representative, he needs to prove he’s worthy through his voting record.
From what I’ve seen, Sestak’s entire point is to wait and see how Specter votes–and to remind people that Specter hasn’t proven himself yet in any consistent fashion based on his voting record. At best, it forces Specter further to the left than he planned (or further than he has accomplished yet), and Specter becomes the Senator we want (or are willing to tolerate). At worst, Specter shows he isn’t even lined up politically with moderate Democrats and the way for a primary challenge is paved.
What, exactly, is the problem with this?
Shygetz
@Zifnab: That’s just it, though–we’re not talking about him changing his votes to keep his job, we’re talking about him just changing his party affiliation to dodge his party primary. If he voted with the average PA constituent, he would be a “real” Democrat, hands down.
Tattoosydney
@Short Bus Bully:
This.
ETA: As long as Specter does his part. He wants to represent his electorate? Then genuinely represent the views of the electorate and the interests of the state you represent.
geg6
This really is hilarious, John. And watching the pundits bat around Tom Ridge as an alternative to Toomey is just another of their humorous attempts at being relevant. Tweety has been foaming at the mouth over this whole thing and, of course, praising Ridge to the skies as the perfect foil for Snarlin’ Arlen in the GE.
Of course, none of them ever mention the fact that since Specter is too liberal for the PA GOP, then Ridge is similarly a DFH. With the punditocracy, it’s all about the horse race even if the horse race will never actually take place.
As for Sestak, I agree that it is unbecoming of an officer to be whining all over the public airwaves. And I also have many difficulties with his votes so far. But I’m all for Specter getting primaried. And Sestak is a good Dem candidate for the Dems of PA, mainly because the vast majority of our Dems are quite…well, right-leaning would the wrong word…let’s call them moderate. And with Howard Dean and James Carville out there backing up Sestak as a threat to get Specter to moderate his stance on things like EFCA and universal health care and judicial candidates and such, it’s not a bad strategy. Perhaps it’s not actually the strategy Sestak would endorse, but it’s very likely to work since Arlen is truly a vote whore as proven by his recent label change.
Jim
Like others here, I’m not bothered by what Sestak is saying. I haven’t seen him on TV, so I can’t say if he’s “whining” or not, but Specter has been saying some extraordinarily dickish things. I say it’s up to him to prove he’s a Democrat, not just using the D to say his sorry, sagging, wrinkled ass from Pat Toomey.
But the reason I called today: If Ridge does run, can we talk about how he 1) admitted to politicizing the Geranimal Terror Watch during the ’04 campaign, and he did so on orders from the White House; 2) really really sucked as a DHS Secretary? Brownie wasn’t the only culprit in Katrina. There was a whole lot of contingency planning that wasn’t done under Ridge’s tenure. Maybe he was busy playing with terror warnings per Cheney’s requests.
joes527
OK.
Specter is just this guy who has voted 70% with the R’s and 30% with the D’s. Everything that has been said up to now points to him continuing to be this guy who will vote 70% with the R’s and 30% with the D’s, even for procedural votes. He has made it clear that he is NOT the magical 60th vote.
So that leaves the question … Why is it better to have Specter (D) instead of Specter (R)?
When the senate gets around to reorganizing, D’s will get fractionally more committee seats, but D’s will also have to carry Mr. 70/30 on their side of the ledger. Won’t this result in a decrease in progressives in powerful committee seats?
I don’t care if Specter is a D, an R, a Green or a Whig. And yes, there is need to make D a broad enough coalition that it can survive and thrive. But from a purely practical point of view, it seems that the D’s got the worse part of this deal.
If all the republicans in the senate switched to D and demanded committee assignments by seniority, the I-run-democrat-but-vote-republican wing of the democratic party would be much more powerful than the R’s are today.
NonyNony
Well, he’s already succeeded in telling the base of the Democratic Party to go Cheney themselves, so in many ways he really is a real Democrat.
Of course, Specter had decades of experience telling Democrats to go Cheney themselves before he became a Democrat himself, so perhaps he should be held to a higher standard than Democrats like, say, Feinstein or Nelson in this particular metric.
Nelson gets a pass from me a lot of the time because HE’S FROM FUCKING NEBRASKA. Specter doesn’t have that excuse – he’s had to be a moderate Republican just to keep getting elected in PA (except for that brief stint where the people in the cities in PA went nuts and let crazy-ass Santorum get into the Senate).
Sestak is just releasing trial balloons to see how many pissed off Democrats there are in the state and see if he has a shot of convincing them that they want a moderate Democrat, but they don’t want Arlen Specter. He doesn’t have a lot of ways to spin it – he is not the person who can attack Specter from his left in a Democratic primary and he was hoping that Specter would have to tack so far to the right in the GOP primary that it would make the general election a bit easier. He just watched his entire path to the Senate get destroyed overnight by the backroom dealings of the PA Democratic Party and the US Senate and Ed Rendell and he’s pissed off.
Keith G
China calls itself a republic.
Spector is a burned out shell of a man who cares more about dying a US Senator then he cares about party or constituents.
I will modify my view when his behavior merits it.
Maybe once honorable, now a fucktard.
Face
Tom Ridge is a registered trademark? Holy fuck, I had no idea.
Shit, do I have to pay someone somewheres for typing that?
Zifnab
@Tattoosydney:
You really believe Tom Coburn will run for President?
Tattoosydney
@Zifnab:
I get the feeling he will be beaten in the primary by a Chinese manufactured clone of Strom Thurmond.
John Cole
You know, two things. First, if Sestak announces, I will support him. I think he is precisely the kind of guy democrats need front and center to counter the ludicrous ‘Democrats are weak on defense’ bullshit Republicans trot out all the time.
Second, what is irritating me is probably Sestak’s tone. I remember him as a pretty blunt, straight-forward guy. Before last week.
Last week, he was on every show sort of whinging, and it just drove me mad. He would go up to the edge of saying Specter should not be the Democratic Senator from PA, but wouldn’t say it. It just struck me as, if you will pardon me, as weak.
One last thing. I think every single Senator and every single Representative should have at least one and if possible multiple primary opponents every single election.
Zifnab
@Shygetz: Well, yes. And I agree, out the gate, he’s been a shitty Dem. That said, if his voting trends shift with his party ID and move to line up with his constituency, then we win. If he doesn’t, he would – logically – get primaried out of office.
But the real problem isn’t Specter switching parties. The problem is Reid, Rendell, and Obama backing a guy that refuses to offer legislative political support. I’ve got no problem with Specter registering as a Democrat. I’ve got a huge problem with the Democrats backing Specter when he won’t back them in kind.
If Specter were to switch parties but sacrifice all the benefits of seniority and receive no fund raising aid, he’d be in no better position in the ’08 Dem Primary than in his respective Republican Primary. If the Dems channel him a bunch of money and political machinery while running around squashing or backstabbing his opposition just because Specter is part of the Senate Club and shouldn’t be touched… then we’ve got a different kind of problem that has nothing to do with Arlen’s voting record.
Zifnab
@John Cole:
I can haz publickly fundaid e lections?
Slaney Black
Was that intentional? OMFG I peed myself.
Shygetz
@Zifnab: Sure, if Specter changed his voting habits, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. But he hasn’t, and his “tough talk” indicates that he’s at least floating a trial balloon to be a Republican within the Democratic caucus. So, I think Sestak and every other PA Dem should be shouting from the rooftops that Specter’s a DINO until Specter proves ’em wrong. And, if Specter doesn’t prove ’em wrong, I think (and hope) that PA Dems will primary his ass into retirement.
Screamin' Demon
If the asshole had any honor, he’d retire when his term is up. His switching to the Dems is nothing but opportunistic bullshit. A 70-percent Republican is NOT a Democrat. I hope Sestak or some other Dem sends Arlen packing to the Senate Old Folks Home.
Zifnab
@Shygetz: Right, that’s why I’m saying the problem isn’t Specter at all. It’s the Penn Dem Party Machine, assuming the machine comes into Specter’s hands.
If Specter thinks that putting a (D) in front of his name is what his constituents want, he should be taking that gamble with his own time and money. But his “political opportunism” in changing parties isn’t a bad thing on its face. It’s how politicians are supposed to act. He’s doing what is necessary to get reelected. If his new caucus makes it easier for him to get elected without him ponying up the votes they want, then that’s not a Specter problem at all.
JK
Ridge Trails Pennsylvania’s Specter By 3 Fricking Points, Quinnipiac University Poll
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1293
Judging from this poll, Specter is in big fucking trouble. Now Cornyn and McConnell will twist Ridge’s arm to get in and they’ll try to bury Toomey by outspending him to death.
Zifnab
@JK: So the Republicans are going to go into a fund raising pissing contest in Pennsylvania before they even get out of their own primary?
Fuck yes.
Adrienne
I circle back to the point I’ve made a million times on this blog since the Spector the (D)efector made his switch – This. Will. Not. Happen. Without. Labor. Period.
A lot of the Dem machine in PA depends on labor and unions. If Spector continues to cop out on the EFCA there is no amount backroom deals with Obama, Reid, and Rendell could do that could save Spector’s wrinkly ass in a Democratic primary.
Adrienne
LMAO. They are going to bury the Club for Growth guy? Really? Even if they did, the Republican party in PA (which was once kinda socially moderate) is now officially a part of wingnuttia…. No fucking way they choose Ridge over Toomey in a CLOSED primary. All the Republican moderates in the suburbs of Philadelphia switched to Dems last year for the epic Obama-Clinton showdown. They haven’t switched back. That’s why Spector switched in the first place – he saw the writing on the wall.
Then, even if they did pick Ridge, the numbers in the poll you have are soft. Once they get working on him reminding ppl of his connection to the Bush administration those numbers are gonna drop like a lead balloon.
Ash Can
OT, but I’m cracking up at this new ad in the left-margin rotation. For those of you who may not have seen it yet, the top half of the ad features a picture of John McCain. Underneath the picture, the text reads, “Country First will allow us to strengthen our party.” A link button under that reads, “join today.” Then comes the fine print: “Paid for by Country First PAC. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.” I suppose this means any or all of the following:
— Some Republicans out there, not knowing enough to come in out of the rain, really want John McCain’t to run again in 2012
— The driver of the car that got hit by the Straight Talk Express is suing and the campaign needs to pay the legal bills
— The McCain campaign staffers whom Sarah Palin ripped off for her Fifth Avenue and Rodeo Drive shopping trips want their money back
— Meghan McCain thinks the guys running the National Council for a New America are asses and is convinced she can do a much better job if she just raises a little scratch
Bobby Thomson
Shorter Nate Silver:
If you ignore Specter’s actual voting record, he’s not so bad. And if you ignore the fact that Sestak represents the same district that put up with Crazy Curt Weldon for years, you can say his middle-of-the-pack Democratic voting record is more conservative than it should be.
gypsy howell
If Ridge runs in the primary, what’s to stop all the moderate former republicans who switched over to the Dem party for Obama, from switching right back to Republican in 2010?
Ridge could definitely take Toomey if the moderate republicans register republican again. He doesn’t have all that inconvenient “upperdown” voting history to contend with like Specter does, so the republicans will be easily conned into voting for him. Plus, he was gov for 8 years here, and he was reichsmarshal of Homeland Security to boot.
Honestly, I think I would prefer Ridge winning over Specter.
DrDave
@Zifnab:
Nate Silver has this wrong. Joe Sestak currently holds the Congressional seat that was previously held by Curt Weldon for 20 years. This district is only Democratic leaning because Joe is their Congressman; it was a Republican stronghold until 2007. Joe’s Navy background gave him standing to run against Weldon (who could not use his Armed Services cred against a retired Vice Admiral) but he only won because Weldon became embroiled in an 11th hour corruption scandal/investigation.
All that said, Sestak is a great guy to have representing the district. He’s smart, his head is screwed on straight and he is a realist. I live 3 blocks outside his district (we were redistricted into the 6th after the 2000 census) but I donated time and money to his re-election campaign in 2008. I will do the same in 2010 whether he stays in the House or goes after Specter’s seat.
DrDave
@Bobby Thomson:
Sorry I didn’t read your comment before I posted mine.
...now I try to be amused
Yeah, the Democratic leaders are treating Specter like he has some leverage in this deal. I don’t see it. I see a wet rat that jumped from a sinking ship. If the Dem leaders say “Back us or else,” what’s Specter gonna do, go back to the GOP and become a lame duck?
I’m hoping this is nothing but a Kabuki courtship dance for the public’s consumption and Specter’s ego, but privately they told Specter the real terms of the deal.
If not, then somebody’s gotta hold Arlen’s feet to the fire on EFCA and Obama’s other programs, and if it’s Sestak then so be it.
mcc
What I hear Sestak saying is that he’s going to base his decision to run on how Specter behaves over the next few months. In other words it sounds like Sestak is doing this to scare Specter blue.
cd
Oh, c’mon, these are just the opening gambits/volleys. Sestak sees this as battleships and he’s shooting to range and fork the opponent, not shooting to sink Specter- yet.
PA is now a 55% D-voting state. Any contest between serious center Right and center Left candidates should favor the latter, and Sestak is positioning himself correctly for that kind of a fight.
socraticsilence
The only thing that I question about Specter is whether he should jump everyone in seniority.
DrDave
@mcc:
That is possibly true. Sestak is a complicated guy and there are things going on here on several different levels. People who know him well told me that he was ambivalent about running against Specter in 2010 right after he won re-election. And because the House and the Senate work differently, he may opt to stay in the House if he thinks he can have a greater impact driving issues most important to him–particularly health care–from that venue.
Joyful Alternative
Tom Ridge can’t win a Pennsylvania election in 2010. As governor, he Enronized the state’s electric companies, and in 2010 the rates are free to rise sky high.
If the guy who doubled your electric bill is running for office, you don’t vote for him.
Little Dreamer
Arlen Specter has already screwed up, he’s backing Norm Coleman in MN. By what component of one’s imagination can a man who just recently decided to put a D behind his name get away with backing an R candidate in a recount that looks for all intents and purposes to be won by the D candidate? No partisanship there, eh?
He may now have a D behind his name, but he votes R and he’s only doing this to save his own job (and I will predict he would have had a better chance trying to beat out the wingnut R than to pretend to be a D).