It’s a balance. You want donors to feel confident it’s a good investment but that you need their money. State X is winnable, but that campaign needs volunteers to close the deal (or run up the score). Enthusiasm=good turnout vs sense it’s all decided=low turnout/smaller margins/4 https://t.co/A7z5FLZDoe
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 22, 2024
This is very good & consistent w what’s long been my theory of the race /5 https://t.co/xSFDnAe36e
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 22, 2024
Patrick Dillon, husband of Jen O’Malley Dillon, “We’re Gonna be Okay”:
My texts are full these days of “are we gonna be okay?” and, then, a beat later, “are you really sure?” Over and over, my answers are basically “yes” and “as sure as I can be.”
I also used to get paid to make big presentations this time of year to tell clients what was going on and what might happen. That process forced me to be rigorous in assessing every bit of data I could lay my hands on, and keep myself honest…
So, to save some time and in the spirit of “to hell with it,” here in one place is what data and my gut tell me I believe: she’ll win and outperform the polls. Trump will be rejected, as he has been in every election since he first became president – 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 – either where he was on the ballot directly or by proxy through candidates closely identified with him, including in multiple of the same swing states we’re all obsessing over now…
To the extent poll error happens, I believe it is likelier to be in her favor than his after eight years of pollsters obsessively focused on how to not miss Trump supporters. We are all understandably so traumatized by 2016’s loss, and so many were surprised by 2020’s margin (though notably, not the Biden campaign itself) that, even though there are fairly convincing theories for how each happened, we’ve become hostages of superstition and anxiety – even when we can’t quite articulate a good theory for why it would happen this time. And all this despite the various modeling geniuses gently and repeatedly reminding us there’s no iron law that every error happens in the same direction cycle after cycle, indeed that it might be a little weird for it to happen three cycles in a row…
The almost comically late and slapdash, make it up as we go along, build the plane in the air, field effort run by people with more money than political or managerial sense (ahem, Elon) will, unsurprisingly, fail at the one thing they admit they very much need: sufficiently getting his low-propensity supporters to the voting booth. And it will be substantially outclassed by the massive, well-trained and targeted first-Biden now-Harris field operation that has been building on the ground all year…
I don’t think I’m wrong, I truly don’t, but if I am, well, “being wrong on the internet” won’t be first or last on my list of things to worry about…it won’t even be on the list.
But I believe, I really do. We’re gonna be okay.
Worth reading the whole thing — it’s not long! — including the footnotes, before you start quibbling.
======
Insider baseball:
Read this article closely, esp what Plouffe says. My take:
*They think she’s ahead
*They don’t believe public polls that have the battlegrounds all within 2 points; suggests they believe some are in the bag
*They don’t need Repub votes to win
*Going after Repubs /1 https://t.co/UiJEmblEin— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 22, 2024
…& doing a bunch of outreach in unorthodox places isn’t as much to squeak out a win as it is to run up the score
*They trust their data more than their polling
*Their internal presentations of where the campaign is & where it’s headed must be really good if…/2…big donors feel good (since they’re usually freaked out).
To me it reads not that they know they’ve got it won, but that they know that if they execute that they will win, maybe big. /3
Plouffe would be talking to multiple audiences. I assume some of it was to convey to the superPAC’s where they believe they are, & to exude confidence pinned to a determination to execute a detailed—& they think winning—plan
Also priming the press for surprises.
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 22, 2024
Always interesting that when Rs talk confidently about winning, it's assumed to be attractive; when Ds talk about it, it's presumed to be depressor. Why don't we think people want to be on this awesome winning team? They do! Lots of them!
— Chris Nelson (@_ChrisNelson) October 22, 2024
Few more thoughts about this
*A close election helps Trump (& potentially SCOTUS) steal it. If it’s a big win it’s harder
*Election night matters; Trump will allege Dems are dumping a bunch of fake votes. But if we win marginal Repub areas it could speed the process…/1 https://t.co/xT5rUqkAfB— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 22, 2024
…of the networks calling places like Michigan & Wisconsin, and it also limits Trump’s lead (& possibly prevents one) when we’re looking at 13% or 42% of the vote counted & reported.
*Which Dem states aren’t close & have surprisingly quick calls, & which Repub states…/2…are surprisingly close, & aren’t called early matters to Trump’s ability to claim fraud. I have no idea why Walz is going to Kentucky, but it just occurred to me that KY is typically one of the first states called on Election Night. Maybe Walz going there is to juice…/3
…the turnout in a Dem bastion & slow down the call for Kentucky on election night? I dunno, that could be completely wrong. But I suspect the Harris team has spent time thinking about how reporting beginning at 7:00PM ET will affect the receptiveness of the press…/4
…the public, & Republican officials to Trump’s fraud claims, or how those early results could tamp down the possible belief or perceived opportunity to claim the election is being stolen.
*FL & TX are important RE early returns. FL reports early…/5…so even if it’s called for Trump by 10:30 ET it matters if it’s close. If Texas goes in to Wednesday morning or afternoon still uncalled & w a narrow margin, that shapes the nation story that Trump has done worse than 2020, Repubs are turning on him, what does the GOP…/6
…do now that they can no longer count on Texas as a safe state (esp if Allred wins), etc
*Senate races will also shape perceptions. It would be nice if Casey & Slotkin are called early. That would shape the overall perceptions of what party had the better night…/7BTW, most of this stuff wasn’t thought much about prior to 2000. And 2020 showed what happens after the polls close can influence whether we remain a democracy. Winning is obviously most important. But how it’s announced & perceived matter too /8
Portents, cuz the Trickster God lacks subtlety…
When it’s going great pic.twitter.com/wMkD2No9Lu
— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 23, 2024
SpaceUnit
How many of these anxiety threads do we need? Christ.
Chet Murthy
@SpaceUnit: Huh, I didn’t think it was an anxiety thread but more of a feel good, thread
SpaceUnit
@Chet Murthy:
Just more horserace bullshit.
TS
They think its funny to blame MVP because one of their signs collapses? I think its hilarious that if they can’t even affix a sign – they surely can’t be serious about their campaign.
TS
@SpaceUnit: Which is the reality of the campaign, and some of us like the positive aspects after being buried in MSM negativity.
This is my “sane” place. Not many others.
ant
one aspect of the polling that i think is underappreciated is the Psychopath/sociopath voting block. If you’ve dealt with these types, you’ll know that participating in collective action problem solving is something that they’re just don’t see any reason to go along with. The constant lying, the scams, the poaching, the littering, not paying any bills that do not benefit them personally and directly, like taxes and insurance and child support. They’re bad drivers, cause they don’t want to cooperate with other drivers. AND THEY DON’T VOTE. Well, they didn’t until republicans started to go after them directly. The best and earliest example of this I can think of was that Thanksgiving Sarah Palin video, where she showcased that obvious weirdo killing turkeys in front of god and everybody.
Then there’s Trump. For the first time they all had one of their own to vote for. Their corrosive bullshit was being fucking celebrated openly by the GOP. And they showed up on election day in 2016. Of course pollsters missed them, they were new voters.
And of course pollsters have been having trouble figuring out what these people are going to do ever since. They are ALL manipulative liers.
This is also why the GOP loves Trump: Because he added voters to their coalition. THAT is what is different.
Gloria DryGarden
I’m imagining and visualizing it, a huge democratic landslide of wins, president, senate, house. We flip some seats we gain some seats.
see it believe it, imagine it, taste it, hear it, bright colors, confetti, good music, a festive inauguration
and somehow, blessed safety and protection for all who serve, or show up.
Amanda Gorman reads another great poem, lady Gaga shows up in amazing clothes, all Kamala’s sorority sisters are there in beautiful outfits.
Theres a movie on prime, where a blonde female president is elected in 2016, Uma Thurman plays the president, she’s running again in 2020, and her son goes to work in Texas to register new voters and flip Texas. I know it’s fiction, but gosh, it’s uplifting, when she wins again, and wins Texas. Helps me imagine optimistic things happening.
If you want to see it, it’s a charming, slightly cheesy) well-acted gay rom-com that got nominated for an Emmy: “red white and royal blue.” The film clips and short bits of it are on YouTube. I just play those parts over and over, where they got a million new voters registered, and where they won. Delicious!
SpaceUnit
@Gloria DryGarden:
Hell yes. This is the way to talk!
Gretchen
There have been several attempts to recall my suburb’s mayor, despite the fact that he won with 95% of the vote. Then he said maybe the mostly white suburb could use some diversity and affordable housing, and the Trumpy types decided he needed to be recalled. Every attempt failed, and the last one they had to hire paid petition-gatherers. These people had no idea what the mayor had supposedly done wrong or why he should be recalled – they were just putting in time to collect a paycheck. Hearing that Elon is relying on entirely paid GOTV persuaders makes me think it will be the same thing. If his people even talk to voters, they won’t be able to persuade them.
Gloria DryGarden
@Gloria DryGarden: here’s a good clip of that movie. The first 7 minutes have many scenes about the election, and the president, then the last minute has the win. After 7 minutes, it’s more about their romance, if you prefer to skip that part of the entertainment. Gorgeous actors!
Red white and royal blue election success clips
JWR
Tuesday Afternoon’s Background Briefing with Ian Masters was quite good, featuring first Dr. Bandy Lee:
Followed by Rachel Bitecofer:
Dr. Lee ends on a hopeful note by pointing out that once it was rid of Hitler, Germany quickly became a sane, liberal Democracy. But then I think about how Germany worked to remove not only Hitler, but everything Nazi from the public as well as the private spheres, and I don’t see the U.S. doing anything like that WRT Trumpism, just as we didn’t wipe the slate clean after the Civil War. At least not fully. And I wish I’d learned more about Reconstruction a long time ago. ;)
wjca
It can be important to recognize the different between “most” and “all.” Think of it as the difference between “All Cretans are liars” and “All liars are Certans.” For instance, it could be true that all MAGAts are sociopaths* (at least on some level), but that isn’t the same as all sociopaths being MAGAts. And some of us are not. For another instance, you would very probably be correct to say that most sociopaths are manipulative liars. But again, not all of us.
I wouldn’t be surprised if most parents struggle to teach a sociopathic child the differece between right and wrong, and the virtue of working together with other people.** Perhaps it takes a rather different approach than with other kids. But my parents managed to do it, so it is definitely possible.
The reason that I think this matters is that, when you are trying to win a close election, you do not want to drive away anybody who would otherwise support you. That’s why Harris is not only accepting but embracing support from Liz Cheney and other Never Trumpers, however much she disagrees with their policy positions on almost every issue.
That’s also why Republicans demonizing minority groups is an ongoing blunder. There are a lot of quite conservative folks in those groups who would otherwise support them. A few of those manage to delude themselves that the leopards will never eat their faces. But a lot more are driven into the Democrats’ arms, despite disagreeing on a lot of policies.
* Taking, for this purpose, the defining characteristic of sociopaths being a lack of empathy — the inability to put oneself in the other guy’s shoes, and to feel what they are feeling. Not the inability to predict how they will feel in a given situation. Just the inability to feel it.
** Assuming that the parents (unlike, say, Trump’s father) are even interested in trying.
Ksmiami
I guess I’m trying to be stoic about it all. If more people want American decline and suicide, well, it wouldn’t be the first time in history a country frog marches itself over a cliff – if we pull out a partial win, that’s good, but we still have a lot of proudly ignorant, uncivilized mooks trying to shove the country back to the Middle Ages.
Mousebumples
I’m cautiously optimistic.
Biden will not let election fuckery happen.
Vote.
Gloria DryGarden
I began my phone banking for Trisha calvarese, D, for Colorado district 4, running against Lauren boebert.
The script seems doable, there’s auto dialing, and I’ll be reaching out to unaffiliated voters (the district, which usually votes red, is 60% unaffiliated) and folks who are in the middle, nominally republicans, or democrats. Boebert is so unliked, this may be winnable.
Join in if you’d like. The zooms to get the instruction, are at 5:30 mtn time. But then with the auto dialer link and the script – sent to my email- I can make calls at other suggested times, lunch and dinner/ evenings. Trisha for Colorado. I googled her, found it easily, and signing up took 20 seconds. The coach for the phone bank was accessible, and it was easy to ask questions.
Another way to act on the “good faith” and keep it positive. There are emails from Geeks for Harris, and some of the Harris Walz fundraising emails that have phone banking you can connect to.
I’mma work out my tech issue w my microphone, and crank out some calls. If I want to do more, I may connect with Arizona through the geeks for Harris fundraising/ canvassing email (also they want help in Nevada)
onward for a cheerful active two weeks!
Mousebumples
@Gloria DryGarden: thanks for the report! Happy phone banking!
ant
@wjca: I view the lack of empathy to be a symptom rather than a cause. In fact I believe that sociopaths are quite capable of empathy, and that it is not a defining characteristic. They certainly have empathy for their own situation.
The root cause are emotional deficits: Guilt, remorse, regret, sorrow, grief – they don’t feel these as emotions. Or perhaps they can, but less so than others. Perhaps the ability to feel these emotions can atrophy with disuse, like the eyesight of a prisoner who is not allow to see anything beyond however many feet for so many years.
I imagine there is no line in the sand that a person falls on, but more of a spectrum.
In any case, the lack of empathy is the result of the emotional deficits, not a cause. IE, if you’ve never FELT grief, it’s hard to have empathy for someone who is feeling it. Or, if you’ve never felt sorrow, it’s hard to say you’re sorry in a meaningful way, because you don’t mean it.
The lack of guilt/remorse has implications when it comes to learning from your mistakes. What a lie detector picks up when a normal person lies they feel, and that feeling lets them know that they messed up. If you don’t feel anything, it’s much harder to figure out, leading to these types always blaming others for their fuck ups. Or blaming “the universe” or whatever other sorry excuse they come up with like the quarter in that movie No Country For Old Men.
opiejeanne
Wrong thread.
Mousebumples
If you’re not familiar with Smalls, his story is wild and absolutely worthy of a Hollywood movie treatment.
JWR
@Mousebumples: That was the video clip the local SoCal stations went with in their hourly election segments! Good for our definitely NOT Sinclair owned or controlled local media!
Mousebumples
Gloria DryGarden
@Mousebumples: is there a call for artists?
I love this! Very cool story. When I hear of someone getting belated history attention, who has previously been erased out of all the history stories most of us get, my typical comment is,
oh, people exist! We exist! Black people exist!
( usually I say it about women who didn’t get credit in science or history, because we appear to have never existed)
But just as much, we need to hear these stories about all people, from all groups, everyone who isn’t White, straight cis male. All the rest of us, who have been heroes, been courageous, or brilliant, or steadfast, in so many ways.
Tony Jay
For me, the very best thing about Harris/Walz putting Stench/Snowball to the sword next month will be you guys finally purging yourselves of the trauma toxins of 2016. Victory in 2020 was great, but it wasn’t enough to banish the demons of that shock defeat. It was much closer than it should have been after the persistent awfulness of Trump’s term in office, and however obvious it seems that every traditional marker of electoral positivity is packed in Kamala’s corner hooting and hollering in excitement, there’s always the crawling shadow of doubt at the back of the mind when you consider how completely the corporate media and the superduper rich are in the tank for their candidate, and how little respect those shameless cheats have for any of the basic rules of democracy.
Nothing anyone can say is going to shift that nugget of cancerous fear until the results start coming in and the sheer scale of America’s ongoing rejection of MAGA vileness is there on the screen in solid, factual graphics. A blue wave advancing from sea to shining sea, a wall of towering peaks smashing the careers of scores of Republican hatemongers while the broken political ideology of Republicanism gets ground to sludge in the undertow.
I’m staying up late to watch it, and the last time I did that over here was 2017. It’ll be fantastic.
Mousebumples
@JWR: nice!
I appreciate the solid messaging by Kamala here.
Maybe we can get rid of the fucking Hyde amendment. (I think that’s what it’s called?)
Roe was the compromise. Now we’re not letting any states or religious exemptions prevent women from getting care.
If you don’t want to do abortions/miscarriage care, get the fuck out of healthcare.
Phylllis
@Mousebumples: Recommended reading on Robert Smalls–Be Free or Die.
Mousebumples
@Gloria DryGarden: haha, I have no idea beyond what’s in that reporting. But, yes, it’s great to have him recognized, and hopefully others will follow!
@Tony Jay: I’ve got an out of town work meeting that day (*already voted early), so I won’t be able to track turnout throughout the day. Probably for the best, for my mental health.
I might go to bed early and hope to wake up to good news. Really depends on how early returns go at 7, 8, and 9pm central time.
I loved watching all the returns come in, in 2008, but I also remember how loooong 2020 took. I can’t stay up for days, lol.
Mousebumples
@Phylllis: I think I read that awhile ago. He was spotlighted on “Stuff you missed in history class” (podcast a few years ago). He’s got an amazing story!
Gloria DryGarden
@Mousebumples: I don’t mind if a doctor is transparent about their beliefs, and personally is uncomfortable with certain procedures. But I mind vehemently when whole medical institutions can refuse medical care. I’ll have to read up on the Hyde amendment.
I also don’t mind if women and their partners who want an abortion, but their religion opposes it, I don’t mind if they are required to have some pre abortion consult. I hate that 30% of abortions are for people who are against it, but who usually go right back out into their tribal antiabortion activism.
I adore that judge in GA who said our uteruses are not some kind of community property, esp when you consider it’s our whole body that gives to the growing clump of cells, embryo to fetus.
ok,
back to staying cheery as much as possible.
Mousebumples
@Gloria DryGarden: I’ve been radicalized by Dobbs. I also work in Healthcare, so I’ve seen how personal objections are used to avoid compliance.
No transvaginal ultrasound required before you can have an abortion. No “you need to come back, again, past protestors who are shouting lies at you.”
This decision should be made by the woman and whoever she wants to consult. Her doctor? Her partner/family/friends? Her priest/rabbi/iman? All fine. But it should be HER call. Not a bunch of old White men in government that couldn’t find parts of the female reproductive system with a map and a flashlight.
Re – Hyde amendment, that’s the one that prohibits Medicaid spending on abortion. Abortion is fucking healthcare and should be available to people on Medicaid.
Tony Jay
@Mousebumples:
I’m all the way over here on The Island of Broken Things so it’ll be grey morning o’clock before anything’s certain, but I’m going to stick it out as long as possible. No need to wait for California anyway, except to see how many inland MAGAts get bounced.
Chet Murthy
@Mousebumples: There’s a thing that starting to happen in some Western countries, where “traditional religious councils” are weighing in on legal matters of various kinds. And this is inevitably to the detriment of women’s rights. I think if a woman wants to -bring- others into her decision regarding health care, she has that right to do so, but there ought to be no statutory role whatsoever for anybody else other than her and her doctor. B/c we start bringing men into this, men with beards and religious robes, and inevitably there will be oppression.
ETA: I’m thinking specifically about divorce proceedings, and the way that these traditional religious leaders get involved, and always to the detriment of women’s rights, pushing them to remain in abusive marriages and such. The state should not give its approval for such bullshit: if a woman wants to consult her rabbi or priest or whatever, sure, she can do that; the state should ignore such things and go with the law and nothing but.
Baud
Via reddit, the election is in the bag.
Baud
Hopium thread on reddit.
Chet Murthy
@JWR: There’s an excellent book by Susan Nieman, _Learning from the Germans: Race and the Memory of Evil_, about how Germany overcame its Nazi history, and what lessons she can draw from it for reconciliation in the US. She grew up in the US South (IIRC Atlanta). And the one big thing that stood out to me, is that Germany had the US (and Russia) standing over them, ensuring that they could not glorify anything about their Nazi past. On both sides of the Iron Curtain there were things that were allowed: in the West, former Nazis were allowed in public life, in the East, former Nazis were allowed in the security services. But in both cases, no celebration of Nazism was allowed.
She also writes about how Germany only started to dig into the truth of the Nazis years, after …. well, after Grand-Uncle Fritz got old enough that he couldn’t lord it over family gatherings, so to speak. It remained for the children and grandchildren of the Nazi generation to do the digging. Until the late 70s, Germany wasn’t really reckoning with its history, and the Germany of today, with its somewhat exemplary approach to its history is a relatively new development, starting in the 1990s or so.
Anyway, an excellent book. She tries really hard to find reasons for hope for America in Germany’s experience, But in the end, I think she sort of admits to herself that there isn’t. The unique conditions — specifically the presence of American authorities ensuring that Nazism could not be glorified — are just not present, and without them, the teaching of the ideology of revanchist white supremacy is simply unstoppable. Sigh.
Chief Oshkosh
@Gloria DryGarden: Vic Meyers, that CO cowboy on YT has some videoed supporting her.
Raven
@Mousebumples: I’m in Garden City right now headed for the boat at Murrels Inlet. Yesterday we went to the Gullah Museum in Georgetown. My buddy from Berkeley knew nothing of the Gullah/Geechee culture so it was really good!
TBone
I spoke to our County’s Democratic Committee Chairperson about the fact that me and my neighbors have not yet received our mail ballots. I got a spiel about how Dems are prone to panic and anxiety. I let her know that, no, I’m not anxious, I’m angry. This SNAFU by the post office defeats the entire purpose of mail ballots. Of course I’m able to vote in person, but the law says I must be able to vote by mail as well. I was urged to wait “a few more days” for ballots to arrive.
She confirmed that others at the Committee meeting Monday night also have not yet received ballots, but I detected not a shred of urgency to find out why.
WTAF lady, no, I will not calm down!
(I was measured and affable and polite during our conversation and am expressing my dismay here, not to her.)
Baud
@TBone:
That’s frustrating.
TBone
@Baud: she is a highly educated college professor and has dedicated her life to public service, so to get a “smile more” talking to was a very unpleasant surprise!
David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch
@Baud: She’s magnetic.
TBone
@Baud: ❤️😍
Detroit!
Gloria DryGarden
@Mousebumples: amen. I didn’t know about drs using it to refuse compliance. I would love Medicare and Medicaid to cover it.
I’ve recently learned that rape exceptions don’t work, because of all the delay, the non testing of rape kits, the inability to report it if it’s an incest situation and there’s a threat of violence.
I agree, those men in law and legislature, and women who side with them, have no business practicing medicine without a license.
and dobbs actually rips away privacy laws, I hear, and states can petition to access medical records. If that’s true, about privacy, I’m really disgusted.
I do wish people w a deep religious objection could have some religious exemption. Some Catholics it really bothers them. But they could never work in emergency or urgent care, because that’s where a bunch of stuff happens.
And I need to consider this a bit more, since you have seen docs use that as an excuse for what probably ends up being medical neglect. I try to respect peoples religions, as long as they keep their religion off of me.
TBone
@Gloria DryGarden: anyone with a religious objection to abortion is already exempt from having one. I really like how you said “as long as they keep it off of me.”
Gloria DryGarden
@Chet Murthy: this is horrible to contemplate. You’re absolutely right
Chet Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: I don’t mean this to sound harsh, but: there’s a simple answer for religious exemptions: “find another job”. If I’m a flat-Earther, I can’t work with satellites. If I don’t believe in evolution, I basically can’t work in any kind of biology or drug discovery. And so it shouldn’t be surprising that if I don’t believe in the full rights of all my patients to medical care, I shouldn’t be a doctor or pharmacist. It’s happened a lot that pharmacists refuse to fill prescriptions, citing religious belief, right? And it’s widely-known with well-known cases, that Catholic hospitals refuse to provide the full range of medical services to women, right?
How are these things different than a racist hotellier refusing to rent to a Black customer? Or a homophobic hotelier refusing to rent to an LGBTQ customer or couple? Both of those could claim that it’s a religious belief that drives their objection to doing business with these customers
ETA: and there’s another related category: parental notification rules for minors seeking reproductive care. I can see the state’s interest in having a guardian of some sort (perhaps appointed by the state) overseeing the minor’s decision and care, but if a minor wants to exclude their parent(s), that has to be within that minor’s rights. B/c we know of the story of Hadley Duvall who was raped by her stepfather and impregnated at age 12: girls like her need to be able to access reproductive care with neither their parents knowledge nor consent for the obvious reason.
TBone
@Chet Murthy: but then they wouldn’t be able to infiltrate and undermine the rest of us.
They are all about dominion.
Chet Murthy
@TBone: I grew up in a family where our male progenitor was all about “It might be America out there, but it’s India in here.” And I recoil viscerally against these blinkered religious bigots with their backward theology and anti-human gaslighting. Regardless of whether they’re from barefoot temple in India, some Baptist church in Texass, or some Catholic church in San Francisco. Don’t care, don’t wanna know, don’t give a damn.
Gloria DryGarden
@TBone: I’m irritated w folks who oppose abortion, but then get one, and return to opposing it. That really bothers me. I can get an abortion, but don’t you, and you are wrong to want one, even though I got one. I don’t think there’s a solution.
im also pretty sure that bible that’s been rewritten so much for different political expediencies, doesn’t actually say a thing about abortion. Im not well read, and I don’t have all those Greek and Aramaic translation discussion books, concordances.
the whole American evangelical right wrong judgey flavor of Christianity, just it’s
not accurate, it’s invasive, it hurts people – me included- and it’s hypocritical in practice, and so much is antithetical to the teachings I learned about as a kid. So, like, it’s a travesty.
ps, I’m sorry they were assholes about your ballot. Is there someone above that person? Because making it a pain in the ass to get to vote, is truly not ok.
TBone
@Chet Murthy: that sentiment is as American as apple pie IMO and I, of course, share it.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chet Murthy: these are all good points. I’m just struggling w a few of the nuances. Let me think and chew on this awhile.
TBone
@Gloria DryGarden: I frequently have to remind the judgey people that they have not been appointed with any authority to judge me, their Lord on High is the judge and has not granted them any magical power over me whatsoever. That usually shuts them right the fuck up.
The federal crime fighting unit called The Postal Inspector is about to get an earful from me. They do not fuck around!
Chet Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: “I can get an abortion, but don’t you, and you are wrong to want one, even though I got one.”
It’s Wilhoit’s Law, eh? A classic example of it.
Gloria DryGarden
@TBone: I said something about dominion, yesterday. It’s roots are very like domination, dominance, requiring submission, and how that ties in for me with win lose thinking. Which I object to pretty often. And Which I was tying to several somethings in that thread. Can’t remember now. Must go to sleep.
ok. I have had devastating ill timed conversion attempts aimed at me. Very hurtful. Most recently, my best friend died a few hours after his cancer surgery. Yay Kaiser, taking a month to get it scheduled, it had doubled in size, they couldn’t get it, etc. His close friend texted me that morning to tell me, and the other lady working with me saw me sobbing quietly, and began to inquire about my religion, and start to tell me there’s a right way and a wrong way to worship Jesus.
Chet Murthy
@TBone: This spring when I renewed my passport, it took like a month for my letter to get from SF to the passport service office in the DC area. I’d paid for registered mail, so I got notified when it arrived. I don’t understand why DeJoy hasn’t been fired for cause, I really do not.
TBone
@Gloria DryGarden: sweet dreams of victory!
JWR
@Mousebumples: Here in SoCal, I’m seeing TV ads from these races, (Dems listed first): Dave Min vs Scott Baugh, George Whitesides vs Mike Garcia, Will Rollins vs Ken Calvert, and Derek Tran vs Michelle Steel.
Baugh and Calvert have each been in their House seats for a very long time, (and look it), Mike Garcia I don’t know much about, other than that he’s a former fighter pilot and a solid Trumper, and Michelle Steel is the only one who even nibbles around the abortion issue by focusing on her support for IVF. But they all claim that their Dem opponents are soft on crime, defund the police, pro abortion commies. You know, typical R nonsense issues.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chet Murthy: it um, fucking pisses me off. If I could get 10 more f words in there, I’d be happier. Super cranky.
TBone
@Chet Murthy: ’tis a mystery (not really, since he talks out of both sides of his mouth and placates the doubters just enough to keep his “job”). His slimy appearance at a Congressional Hearing made my blood run cold. But my problem is a local one, apparently, so I cannot yet assign blame.
I trust him as much as I trust used car salesmen and Medicare Advantage brokers.
Gloria DryGarden
@Chet Murthy: please can he get fired? Why isn’t he already fired, and charged with fucking out a system we need to count on. And all to screw up the voting.
trump did that, right? Make his mail come late.
Salty Sam
I only ever learned about Robert Smalls while strolling the streets of Charleston- there was some historic signage along the waterfront, not far from the old outdoor slave market. It was mostly about his great escapade of stealing that Confederate ship, but I was intrigued, did some more research into his life, and came away with the same thoughts- “what a story! This would make for a *great* movie!”
Chet Murthy
@Salty Sam: IKR? Such derring-do, such heroism! You can just see a young Denzel Washington in the role! And yet I only learned about his exploits within the last decade or so.
TBone
I wonder how hard the rethugs are wishing they’d voted to convict at either impeachment and/or simply replaced their cult leader candidate with a capable woman. I estimate that they have many regerts right about now 😆
K-Mo
@ant: You’re onto something important here. I have no idea what it all means for the election, but I really hope America can start to do a better job repudiating this mindset.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
One thing that irks me about the current discourse is that people seem to take as given that Trump is some sort of magic tonic for inflation so it wouldn’t have happened if Trump were president.
Inflation was pretty much at or below historic norms starting in 1980s sometimes right on through the 2010s except for occasional oil price spikes until the pandemic created an economic shock. He inherited low prices and inflation would have been just as bad or worse if he’d been re-elected.
Yes EVERYBODY accepts that inflation is something Biden did, either by accident or on purpose and the people who plan to vote for Trump seem to think electing him will magically cure it overnight. That’s not how it works. Actually if enacted his economic plans would bring back rampant inflation. I don’t expect everyone to understand this but it seems like a lot of the media should and at least a few could mention it once in a while.
Kay
@TBone:
I’m surprised, because ballots (in practice) get preferential treatment at the USPS. It’s easy to expedite them because they are identifiable and are often processed in batches. In the olden days Social Security checks and VA prescriptions were given preferential treatment for the same reasons.
I would call the postmaster or chief clerk at your PO. Find out if they’re seeing them coming through.
Chet Murthy
@TBone: I would wish that that were true. But then again, I remember somebody pointed out that a -lot- of Rs have retired since 2016, a lot. He’s remade the G(r)OP in his image, and I suspect that there are far fewer G(r)OPers who wish him gone, than we might hope. Sure, there are some old-timers like Yertle whom I suspect regret their decisions of January 2021. But most, I fear, want to ride that tiger, b/c they want power and they don’t really care how they get it.
Baud
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
Yes, it is. If he wins, expect the media reporting on thr economy to change instantly, and polling on the economy as well.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Mousebumples: You said what I think much more articulately than I could have
mrmoshpotato
@TBone:
Or that they drove Biden out of the race. Can’t whine about him being too oooooollllllldddddd wwwaaaahhhhhh! anymore!
Way to punch themselves in the dick.
ETA – fixed typo
TBone
@Kay: the County Election office has already confirmed that the ballots were received at our local post office weeks ago, and the clerk at the post office told me she has seen ballots stuffed in boxes “waiting go out.” My postal carrier has also confirmed that she has delivered “some” ballots. So whatever the holdup is, it was attributed to a problem dealing with “volume” by the local Dem chairperson.
But I was assured (in online missives during a search) that the Post Office can handle the additional volume of ballots as well as they handle the additional volume of mail during the Christmas holidays!
Thank you for listening to my rant.
ETA our County used a vendor in Ohio and tracked their ballot purchase order to delivery at our local branch Post Office is the story I got. After that, the ballots cannot be tracked until you vote.
So, they found and exploited the glitch in the system, again! Same old playbook.
Mousebumples
@Salty Sam: I know, right? I’m honestly surprised Will Smith or Denzel hasn’t already optioned the rights!
Ocotillo
@TBone: We are in the same boat here. My MIL has not received hers yet and it was mailed on 10/1. I am taking her to early voting this morning because even if the ballot shows up today, how can we be comfortable it makes it back to be counted?
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Baud: The economy won’t change, at all. I’m sure the perceptions of it will change for Trump supporters but if his tariffs go into effect it’ll be hard to maintain the fiction.
But I guess your point is Republican voters perceive the economy based on whether their guy is in office and that’s undoubtedly true.
Baud
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
The vibes will change and that’s all that matters these days.
TBone
@Ocotillo: 👍
They have defeated mail ballots, decisively.
The only solution now requires voting in person.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Mousebumples: It is weird that although abortion is a top topic the Supreme Court hasn’t been. It’s not just the Dobbs decision that’s thoroughly unpopular.
Mousebumples
@Dorothy A. Winsor: 🍻
I used to work at a Walgreens that, in retrospect, intentionally didn’t stock Plan B. (*before it was available without a prescription) So many scripts for transferred to Kmart down the street.
It was a way for the (male) pharmacist with a moral objection to not need to dispense it. But it delayed medical care and deferred the agency of the woman.
Why, yes, this was in one of the conservative WOW counties of Wisconsin. How did you guess?
Baud
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
I don’t think it’s weird. Lots of issues activate the other side more than ours. We can’t talk about student loan relief either.
K-Mo
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: yes yes yes! We need to do better next time helping people understand what is going on . The MSM is not up to the job.
But also, for those who live so close to the edge that the moderate bit of inflation we’ve experienced has profound effects on their lives, we need to help get them a buffer.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Phylllis:
Thanks for the rec. Book now on order.
Mousebumples
@Ocotillo:
@TBone:
Response to both of you, re your missing mail ballots… Is it worth reporting to the Secretary of State? Or any statewide or national Election Questions phone number?
If it’s multiple houses in (presumably) the same state, there might be a wider issue.
Definitely, USPIS could be involved, but I’d certainly consider escalating to respective statewide offices.
I feel like I read about a bag filled with mail ballots found along a roadside on Wisconsin somewhere in 2020. I’ll see if I can find it again. (eg the USPS person decided to scatter the ballots vs deliver them) Thanks again, MAGA! /sarcas
Eta, link – nbc26.com/news/local-news/authorities-release-photos-of-mail-including-ballots-found-in-ditch-last-y…
Per reporting – a MN ballot was found but not a WI ballot.
Princess
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: It should be. If Trump wins, he (meaning Vance and the people who hold Vance’s strings) will rule by executive order with the approval of the 6-3 SCOTUS. The constitution is what they say it is.
Betty Cracker
Walz has a gift for puncturing the puffed-up egos of self-important jackasses. I saw a clip of him ridiculing Musk’s recent appearance at a Trump rally. Walz said Musk was “skipping around like a dipshit.” It made me laugh anyway.
K-Mo
Dillon makes some sense to me. My overall feeling is, we should be ok because our candidate is very good, and theirs is a train wreck. Countervailing that is something something the economy, but how strong can those headwinds be when the actual economy is actually in decent shape?
We’ll see I guess. For now, I’m doing everything I can to push Ds over the finish line.
TS
@Mousebumples:
Still asking about GOP policies instead of letting people know what MVP and democrats stand for. This is why they have steered clear of MSM until now, hope she keeps away from the NYT
TBone
@Mousebumples: yes, I will be reporting this to our Secretary of State as someone here yesterday helpfully suggested. And every other authority I can think of! It’s a problem in multiple areas of our red County.
TBone
@TS: CNN Town Hall tonight at 9pm from a location in DelCo, PA. This one might be tough, DelCo is not famous for being intellectual or for mincing words.
Anne Laurie
Denzel’s son John David Washington is a pretty good actor is his own right, and I think he’d do a pretty good Robert Smalls…
TBone
@Betty Cracker: I love that he knows, and uses, that word.
Gloria DryGarden
@Mousebumples: oh, I do remember that there were walgreens branches that refused to sell birth control to people. It was enough to make me redirect my shopping.
I hope those people lost their jobs, how dare they!
Anne Laurie
TFG is literally demanding that the Democrats be ‘forced’ to ‘bring Biden back’ as a candidate, because Trump has made himself the GOP’s rancid, deteriorating id.
If, as seems likely (please, Trickster God), Kamala has is declared President on November 5th, watching the rending of garments & tearing of (scanty) hair among the Repubs should be a little extra treat for us sane Democrats — including Joe Biden!
Gloria DryGarden
@TBone: are you going to go in person?
Baud
@Anne Laurie:
Especially Joe Biden. He’s a good guy.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Betty Cracker:
Walz is a gift. Best VP Running Mate in my lifetime.
TBone
@Gloria DryGarden: if my ballot does not arrive by Nov. 2, I will appear at the County Election office on Nov. 4 and vote using a replacement ballot, the only solution I have unless I go to my local polling place on Election Day and vote using a provisional ballot. But I’ma raise hell about this in the meantime.
Oops, you meant go to the town hall! No, I’m now living three hours away, not in DelCo since 2015.
😆 ISWYDT
stinger
I hope the campaign is printing up a dummy newspaper with the headline “Trump Defeats Harris” that she can hold up with a big grin early on election night.
And then I hope I never have to see his name again.
K-Mo
@TBone: and they have an affinity for mushrooms
Manyakitty
@Baud: good on them. Who would ever think of the juggalos and Dick Cheney on the same side of anything? What a world.
TS
@TBone: I would think better a town hall than the media asking the questions – even if the attendees are trump supporters – she can give them some home truths that might sway a few (well not the disciples but some who are willing to listen).
Mousebumples
@TBone: glad to hear. Hopefully they can get to the bottom of this, and seek appropriate penalties or remediation for whatever is going on.
Soprano2
@Mousebumples: So, has an interviewer EVER asked a Republican what gun rights concessions they’d be willing to make in order to get Democratic votes? I highly doubt it. Democrats are usually the only ones who are expected to make concessions to get votes.
Soprano2
@Mousebumples: I think that’s because in 2016 the argument that the election was about the Supreme Court didn’t gain much traction, and in spite of the experience of the past 4 years I don’t think it would move many undecided voters this time anyway. People who aren’t politically knowledgeable tend to believe things like that don’t affect them that much.
Baud
@Soprano2:
Correctamundo.
Betty Cracker
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: I’m a huge Walz fan. I wonder if he wants to be president someday too?
IIRC, lots of folks assumed Biden didn’t aspire to a post-VP presidency when Obama picked him in 2008. I distinctly remember reading some interviewer’s thoughts about how Biden added gravitas to the ticket and got fitting “capstone” to his long career in exchange. Didn’t work out that way!
Walz is in his mid-60s I think? I’d be surprised if Dems nominate anyone older than 70 again anytime soon. Anyway, first things first — Harris-Walz need to win!
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
He’s 60, so he’d be 68 in 2032. I believe that’s the same age Hillary was in 2016.
Starfish
@Betty Cracker: Here is the clip for everyone who has not enjoyed it already.
Here is Obama when you tell him that he will be at a rally following Eminem.
mrmoshpotato
@Anne Laurie:
Dump can’t attack Biden for being too ooooollllllddddd if Biden’s not running anymore! Hahaha! (Or at least attacking Biden’s age makes no sense.)
Maybe the traitorous, orange shitstain will rip the piss-colored cotton candy off of his disgusting, orange head!
Soprano2
That drives me crazy, too. When they’re asked about it they seem to give some version of the answer “my abortion was special” or “my abortion was for the right reason” or just “I’m different and special, that’s why I can have one”. There is no real rationale they can provide that makes sense.
Baud
@Soprano2:
Status is a real rationale. It drives most of US politics.
Msb
@Mousebumples:
wonderful news. Thanks so much for sharing it!
(There really should be a movie about Smalls’ life.)
TBone
@Soprano2: I had my real political awakening as a result of working in Media, PA as a young (late teens) in a title insurance office directly across the street from our County seat Court House. I had to pass through a bunch of abortion protesters to get to work one morning. I couldn’t help but notice how entitled they all were. I asked one how many children he’d adopted.
Right then and there, at that moment, I knew immediately what is wrong with the rethuglicans who ruled our County with an iron fist since the 1800s. I’d known I was a Democrat, of course, but that moment seared and solidified my resolve.
But they finally got a comeuppance when DelCo went blue recently. We’re not going back.
I hope my current County follows suit!
Soprano2
I keep telling people that TCFG cannot magically make prices go back to what they were in 2019, because businesses are paying wages that are much higher relative to what they were paying in 2019. I’m not sure they believe me, I agree that they seem to think TCFG will be some magic antidote to high prices.
Baud
@Soprano2:
Prices won’t go down. They’ll just stop complaining about it because vibes.
Eolirin
@Soprano2: He will bring prices down. Deporting 10 million people and then rounding up who knows how many others will tank the economy and lead to high and prolonged unemployment.
But I don’t think that’s what people have in mind.
Baud
@Eolirin:
That would probably raise prices because of the shortages it would create.
Soprano2
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: I agree, I watched his interview on The Daily Show last night. He’s a regular person who talks like a regular person, not a politician. He’s highly relatable to the average person. He “tells it like it is”, in a nice way.
TBone
@Baud: and they will actively and animatedly continue to lie about the economy ad nauseum.
Soprano2
@Baud: Even though many of the views of Democrats are now the “mainstream” view, the press still reports on us as if we’re the weird “outlier”, which I think is why they think we need to make concessions in order to get votes. Even after the past 8 years they have not caught up to the reality that in every election since 2000 except 2004 the Democratic presidential candidate got more votes. That literally means we’re the “mainstream”, not the outlier.
Another Scott
@Soprano2: I heard a bit of JV’s recent speech somewhere on C-Span radio yesterday. He blamed inflation on Harris. He said “wages were rising and inflation was low” under TCFFG. He said Tmurp was going to bring down grocery costs and housing costs, but said absolutely nothing about how.
It’s all mouth noises and virtual (not even physical) magic beans with them.
“Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.” – Dan Davies (dsquareddigest) That’s a mantra that everyone should take to heart.
Their cult is strong. But we are stronger.
Forward!!
Grr…,
Scott.
Baud
@Soprano2:
To them, the people who make us up are outliers.
TBone
College radio mood music 🎶 in the Kidz are Alright Dept. of Gin Blossoms:
m.youtube.com/watch?v=o7sx32alzeE
Hahaha! Now we’re listening to Deadeye Dick! 😆
m.youtube.com/watch?v=8x4N0o_RTpc
JWR
The latest Tom Tomorrow strip just dropped over at DailyKos
ETA oops! It showed up 2 days ago. My bad!
Soprano2
@Baud: I agree, but they’ll swear that things are cheaper now. Notice how they’re still complaining about high gas prices even though they’re not high anymore? The price of oil is around $70/barrell, and it dropped below that for a few days last week. If God forbid TCFG is elected, they’ll immediately start saying the very same prices are cheap.
Baud
@Soprano2:
They create their own reality. A booming economy makes it safe for them to do. It’s a large part of why we lost in 2000 and 2016.
Torrey
@Mousebumples:
The story of how Smalls and his group commandeered the Confederate supply ship and sailed it through the Confederate lines to the Union Navy is an inspiring one. One of my favorite parts has to do with Hannah Jones, Smalls’ wife. The crews’ families came aboard the ship for the escape, each bringing the few possessions they could carry along. Mrs. Smalls brought her tablecloth. Wouldn’t have been my first choice, but then, the lady knew what she was doing.
When the commandeered ship had gotten past the Confederate lines and was heading towards the Union lines, just as the nearest Union ship was readying its guns to fire, the crew pulled down the Confederate flag and ran the more-or-less white tablecloth up the mast as a surrender flag. (That last part of the account comes from a Union sailor.)
Egads, that would make a great movie!
Eolirin
@Baud: Only for a little while, and then no one would have any money, and prices world crater
But you only need to look at Japan in the 2000s and 2010s to see how bad a deflationary spiral fucks up your economy and how hard it is to get out of one.
lowtechcyclist
@Gloria DryGarden:
The Hyde Amendment is a 1970s-era compromise on abortion: it prohibits federal funding of abortions.
Even before Dobbs, Catholic hospitals wouldn’t do abortions. And I remember reading several years ago about the Catholic Church entity that owns Catholic hospitals being aggressive in buying up formerly secular hospitals and then they’d be Catholic hospitals that wouldn’t do abortions, reducing the options available for women.
I am totally behind Kamala’s “no compromise” stance. Dems have compromised too much on basic rights for way too long – back in the 1990s, it was one of the things that made it hard for me to even identify as a Democrat. (Up until 1998, I lived in states – VA and SC – where one didn’t register by party.) Too much saying, “we’re for X” then waffling on it when push came to shove.
In recent years, the Democrats have finally gotten their act together on this – no more underbussing minority rights or gay rights or trans rights, well dammit no more underbussing women’s rights either, and the right to appropriate health care is a fundamental right, and as the consequences of state-level post-Dobbs laws have made clear, that absolutely has to include the right to an abortion.
The Hyde Amendment has automatically been included in budget bills and continuing resolutions for 46 years, and it’s time for that to come to an end. And if Catholic hospitals refuse to perform abortions, then it’s time for the Roman Catholic Church to get out of the health care business, which will surely require writing laws that require any hospital to provide abortion care. We’ll probably need to change the composition of the Supreme Court to keep any such laws from being overturned, but it needs to happen.
Scout211
At the time she picked Walz as her VP, much was written about his answer to the question of whether he aspires to run for president in the future. According to many (anonymous) sources, he said no. And that was a point in his favor, in contrast to Shapiro.
All were “anonymous sources close to the Harris campaign” so who knows if it was accurate or will be in 2028.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Also no need to compromise because people can vote in Dems at the state level to guarantee abortion rights.
Baud
@Scout211:
Who knows? Anonymous sources made up a story of Biden promising to serve only one term.
Torrey
@lowtechcyclist:
If that is indeed the case–and it certainly tracks–I’m all for calling out that kind of effort to subvert heathcare in the name of religion.
Scout211
Did anyone else read the puff piece interview of Usha Vance yesterday on NBC News?
I read it so you don’t have to. The title and subtitle says it all:
TL;DR:
Yes, that’s all. But it uses a lot of words to tell us that.
TBone
@Torrey: thank you for also highlighting the cunning of the female(s) who joined in that heroic endeavor.
TBone
@Baud: and I quote, verbatim from the Supremacists, with the power of women scorned:
May this eternally bite them in the ass!
JWR
@Chet Murthy: Missed your wonderful comment about the book, but thank you! It sounds vewy interestink. ;) Again, my thanks. I’ll have to ask my book seller friend if he has that one on hand.
Baud
@TBone:
100%
TBone
@Baud: 🥰💙
We will not go gentle into that good night.
Manyakitty
@Raven: glad your trip is finally happening!!! Have a blast!
Manyakitty
@Anne Laurie: he’s easy on the eyes, as well.
Bupalos
@Soprano2: It’s a test run for the left populism we’re going to increasingly need to master in coming elections.
evodevo
@Chet Murthy: Word from former postal worker here…Never send anything “registered”, send it “certified” with return receipt. If it was actually sent “registered” it takes forever to get where it’s going because it has to be locked in a secure “cage” at every step of the journey. “Certified” moves with the regular mail, and the pale green return card is sent back to you with the recipient’s signature on it, if you want that extra. Both are tracked electronically and you can trace it yourself via USPS.com. You can also see where it is stuck in transit and go bitch about it to the office you sent it from…
Geminid
@JWR: I appreciated the on-the-ground reporting from Southern California, but would make a minor correction: Scott Baugh is not a veteran incumbent, he’s the Republican who challenged Katie Porter in 2022 and lost by ~3%.
Bupalos
@Manyakitty: yeah if you told me in 2000 that a quarter century later I’d in a common political project that I considered semi-existential for the United States along with Dick Cheney and the Juggalos… I’d probably have launched right in to the sound and fury speech from Henry IV.
Hey, things change. Rapidly. There’s both fear and hope in this.
Bupalos
@Baud: that’s a matter of interpretation of political speech. A lot of people thought they heard such a promise in his “bridge to the future.” It was deliberately ambiguous political messaging that intended for people who wanted to hear such a promise to hear it that way.
dnfree
@Gloria DryGarden: Yeah, I mind the “pre-abortion consult”. Some women might have to travel 50-100 miles, or take a day off work without pay, or arrange child care or a ride. One appointment, that’s it. Anything else is just obstruction.
Matt
I’d be fine with this strategy of keeping everyone nervous and engaged if Harris would just assure me personally that this is in the bag.
I promise I won’t tell anyone who lives in a swing state! Y’all can sweat it out!