I still would have rather seen a dozen votes and a lot more public drama over the speakership, but I’m fully aware that Pastor Johnson’s slim majority and herd of Freedum Caucus cats will make his speakership tough. Apparently, the new plan is to try to shove one “big beautiful bill” down everyone’s throat via reconciliation. Here’s Martin Longman’s take:
I mention this because Politico just reported that congressional Republicans have shifted strategies. Originally, the idea was that they would pursue two budget reconciliation bills in 2025 to advance Donald Trump’s agenda. But now they apparently will attempt to get by with only one.
Here’s what I think happened. House Ways & Means chairman Jason Smith (R-Missouri) met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago and convinced him that attempting to do two reconciliation bills in a single year was too risky. Trump then called Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and told him to scrap the original plan and pursue “one big beautiful bill.”
[…]By putting everything in one bill, it really raises the stakes. It forces Republican lawmakers to accept things they don’t like or risk a complete failure to deliver on any of Trump’s major legislative goals. They might not like how the tax bill looks, but rejecting it will mean no energy or immigration bill. Or they might not like parts of the immigration bill but will have to stomach them to keep the tax cuts. When near unanimity is a prerequisite of success, this kind of pressure gives the GOP a better chance of success.
Before I conclude here, I have to add in other factor we have to keep in mind. It is also possible to do a budget reconciliation bill to raise the debt ceiling. This can be done as a standalone bill, and in addition to a kind of reconciliation bill we’ve been discussing. But the Republicans can’t pass debt ceiling extensions in the House without relying on Democratic votes, and that involves making concessions. In an attempt to avoid this, the Republicans are considering adding a debt ceiling hike into the “one big beautiful bill.” The thinking goes that this is a way to convince House Republican holdouts to authorize more debt. Either they do it, or they sink everything else they want and cripple Trump’s presidency.
We all know that Trump’s first two years won’t have any steps forward, and the goal will be to keep the backward steps to a minimum. My question is what was said to the two Reps who changed their votes (Ralph Norman from SC and Keith Self from TX), and whether whatever arm twisting worked with them will work with the crew that will inevitably oppose the big beautiful turd of a bill.
Jeffg166
What was said to Ralph Norman from SC and Keith Self from TX? Get onboard or you are finished in DC.
Shalimar
I assume Elon told them a free Cybertruck was coming to them whether they want it or not. Explosives optional, Tesla monitors everything you say and do in the thing, full self-driving will put you in the Potomac if you vote incorrectly.
scav
@Shalimar: INCOMING LEFT FIELD ALERT!
The Sontarans are in the house.
Josie
What happens when this big beautiful bill goes to the Senate?
elliottg
Threats of physical violence, public exposure of embarrassing information, unending harassment, and incentives in the form of bribes/favors.
Raoul Paste
@elliottg: Nothing would surprise me
MomSense
My mom was pretty exercised this morning about some reporting that Trump wanted a vote on some kind of massive bill that includes most of his agenda. Anyone hear anything about this?
ETA she seems to think this is not related to the budget but to other parts of his domestic agenda.
@mistermix.bsky.social
@MomSense: The post here is about the bill – it’s going to be a giant bill passed via reconciliation.
Starfish (she/her)
@MomSense: I think congress is so dysfunctional that large bills passed through reconciliation is the only way anyone gets any work done.
Anonymous At Work
How does raising the debt ceiling pas the Byrd Rule?
Geminid
@Starfish (she/her): Of the four major bills passed during the first two years of Biden term, two– the American Recovery Act and the IRA– qere passed under the Reconciliation rule. The other two– the Infrastructure bill and the CHIPS Act- were pased with 60+ vote Senate majorities.i think the Debt Ceiling raise was done with a Senate supermajority as well.
Right now the Republican Senate majority seems to have ruled out changes in the Filibuster rules.
Anonymous At Work
@Geminid: The issue under Biden from 2021-2023 was the Senate. Reconciliation to get past filibuster (plus enough bribes for Christine Cinema and that coal baron from West Virginia) and 2 grab-all bills with lots of goodies for Republicans were all that they were capable of.
The issue for Trump now is the HOUSE where nothing that gets 60 votes in the Senate would get 218 Republican votes in the House, and nothing that gets 218 Republican votes in the House will get 60 votes in the Senate. If anything gets out of the House without 218 Republican votes, it’ll be a matter of time before 9 Republicans vote to depose Mike Johnson.
artem1s
That sentence is doing a lot of heavy lifting. It assumes all the nutjobs like Gym Jordan will cave on their favorite stinky parts of the ‘Beautiful’ contract on America and will be happy to help undermine their initiatives in order to help someone who they hate get their pet initiatives, which they also hate, on the table. None of them are going to want to give up SS, HHS, Ag, DoD, or VA money in their districts, especially if that’s the only commerce they have left in their districts. Senators don’t like it when some idiot who was a used car salesman last week tries to put his seat in jeopardy. Most of what they (crazy House members and Elmo) want isn’t going to get past the Senate Parliamentarian.
And of course they still have to deal with the Byrd rule.
The Byrd Rule defines a provision to be “extraneous”—and therefore ineligible for reconciliation—in six cases:[3]
if it does not produce a change in outlays or revenues;
if it produces an outlay increase or revenue decrease when the instructed committee is not in compliance with its instructions;
if it is outside the jurisdiction of the committee that submitted the title or provision for inclusion in the reconciliation measure;
if it produces a change in outlays or revenues which is merely incidental to the nonbudgetary components of the provision;
if it would increase the deficit for a fiscal year beyond those covered by the reconciliation measure (usually a period of 10 years);[c] or
if it recommends changes in Social Security.
Another Scott
@artem1s: Yet another reminder that if this stuff were easy it would have been done long ago.
Thanks.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Geminid
@Anonymous At Work: The Infrastructure and CHIPS bills had lots of “goodies” for Americans in general. That’s why every Democratic House member voted for the CHIPS bill and all but six voted for the Infrastructure bill. .
matt
so, they’ll just have one big Project 2025 bill. Not surprising.
Anonymous At Work
Seems like debt ceiling increase falls under this provision. And there’s is no way that there are 218 Republican votes to change this provision.
The filibuster and the Byrd Rule are the primary Republican defenses against Democrats passing things with a simple majority.
Kosh III
FreedumFreedumB fixed it!Kosh III
I think the House D should vote against ANYTHING Trump and his cultists offer unless it’s–I dunno, raise taxes on the rich, add a 1% sales tax to all stock/bond transactions or universal free health, vision and dental care.
I’m sick of the Regressive party blocking any and every sensible law and spineless D’s go along with it because….
Buttigieg/AOC 2028
E.
I am very interested to know what path Trump will take regarding the 2026 elections. Will he try to win them fair and square, mostly? Or will he take more affirmative steps? Because his people must see that he just absolutely cannot lose either body, and really needs to make gains.
Jackie
@E.: TCFG will threaten to primary all who vote against his demands. Tax cuts for billionaires, etc.
sab
OT. My stepkid is a machinist. My background is middleclass since my grandparents left their childhood farms for adult life.
I had no actual idea about how very much gunk and ooze thre is in modern industrial work.
The had a domstic plumbing failure which flooded the basement and killed their washer dryer.
So they are having us do their laundry in our brand new washer and dryer.
The machinist work clothes are a shock. Dripping wih oil. My husband did the first batch, and ruined two loads of his own clothes in the nespxt load.
This week I took over. Washed the first load at high heat, full water, maximum rinse and spin. They still came out oily. Ran them again. Still oily but less so. So dried them. The washer and dryer are both oily and smell like a machine shop.
The washer has a black oily film inside after the last load. I am sure the dryer will also.
I sacrificed an unpopular bedspead to go through a couple of loads with lots of soap and heat.
Meanwhile, what about my stepsons lungs!?
Shocked here from my entitled white collar perch.
VFX Lurker
@sab: Yikes.
Serious question: how do his peers launder their clothes? Do they have any tips?
How did he launder his clothes before he lost his washer/dryer? Did his previous washer or detergent just do a better job with oil?
Also, does he (or any of his co-workers) wear a respirator or other lung protection at work?
Wishing you better washer/dryer days ahead, and wishing your stepkid safety.
randy khan
@artem1s:
Part of the theory of one big bill definitely is that there will be pressure on Republicans to vote for the whole thing to get what they want, but there is a lot that many of them really do not want. As you mention, killing off ag subsidies would be a complete nonstarter for a bunch of rural Republicans, even as a price to get the sweet tax cuts they want, and there are lots of other examples of things that the Freedom Caucus people would insist on including that a good chunk of the caucus could not abide. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s clearly a really heavy lift, and at a minimum would take a very long time to assemble.
sab
@VFX Lurker: All their laundry was greasy. They leave dirty oil traces every where they go and everywhere they sit.
I have heard that real working class people are very scrupulous about work clothes versus other clothes and keep them completely separate. Stepkid hasn’t been raised with class warfare, plus he is mostly oblivious anyway. That is part of why I hated using public laundromats. Who knows what was in the last load?
Hoping to ask Ruckus when Pacific time hits.l
sab
@VFX Lurker: I do think yes on the respirator. I know, also otherwise he would already be dead.
Matt
My prediction: they’ll load it up with the entire Project 2025 wishlist and then force Dems to provide most of the votes for it on threat of a permanent government shutdown.
Barry
@E.:
“I am very interested to know what path Trump will take regarding the 2026 elections.”
More like the GOP, in the states.
Gvg
@sab: I googled. Dawn pretreatment was a pretty common answer. A bunch of other suggestions, including paying a uniform service for $10 a week which they all thought the employer should cover but most don’t. Many changed at work and had seat covers on cars etc. Hot water, use powdered laundry soap, arm n hammer or 20 mule team. TSP is recommended, simple green and pinesol. Don’t mix the work clothes with anything else. Some of them have separate cheap washer and dryers for the work clothes. Soft water cleans better. The detergent gets out oil, but grease is different and needs a hand cleaner like Gojo or lava soap.
I think I would look into how much the uniform service really costs, the estimate sounds too good considering the cost of soap and hot water these days…but you need a mentor, someone who already knows how.
sab
@Gvg: That makes sense. If it work on birds in oil spills it ought to work on laundry.
sab
@Gvg: Is 20 Mule Team HE washing machine friendly?
My experience with it is mostly to kill bugs and insects on counters.
Citizen Scientist
@sab: in my former life, when I’d come home from work reeking of heating oil or diesel fuel, I’d wash my dirty work clothes by themselves in warm to hot water with detergent and about a 1/2 cup of simple green, repeating when necessary. It almost always gave good results. Best of luck getting them clean and dealing with the house damage (been there too when a plastic fitting gave way in the 2nd floor bathroom and required restoration all the way down to the basement).
Kosh III
@scav:The Sontarans are in the house.
Exterminate! Exterminate!