As I've written, Democrats face long odds in all of Iowa's statewide races in 2026, because of the structure of Iowa's electorate & the longstanding GOP turnout advantage in midterms.
www.bleedingheartland.com/2025/06/15/r…
But an open seat would be less of a long shot.— Laura Belin (@laurarbelin.bsky.social) July 10, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Per Politico, “Joni Ernst is the next GOP senator on retirement watch”:
… The two-term Iowa senator hasn’t officially announced her plans for 2026, and she’s gone through some of the motions of launching another campaign, including recently hiring someone to manage it and announcing her annual fall fundraiser.
But three people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions said there is rising concern among fellow Senate Republicans that Ernst will retire rather than run for reelection, giving Republicans another seat to defend next fall.
Many will be watching closely for clues next week when Ernst files new campaign fundraising totals. She raised just over $1 million in the first quarter of 2025, a solid but not overwhelming number for an in-cycle senator.
Asked about the senator’s 2026 plans, Ernst spokesperson Palmer Brigham declined to say definitively that she would run again: “Senator Ernst is focused on her work delivering for Iowans in the Senate to make Washington ‘squeal,’ making President Trump’s historic tax cuts permanent through the One Big Beautiful Bill, and advancing a strong NDAA.”
Ernst has told people as recently as the past month that she is still considering whether she wants to run again, according to a fourth person granted anonymity to discuss the matter…
Multiple Democrats are already in the race, including — Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. J.D. Scholten. If Ernst were to decide not to run, Republicans believe they already have at least one compelling candidate waiting in the wings. Two of the people granted anonymity said Rep. Ashley Hinson is highly likely to enter the race if Ernst bows out.
Hinson, a former TV news anchor, is the most formidable fundraiser in the Iowa House delegation. The $2.2 million she reported in her campaign coffers earlier this year was only about $800,000 behind what Ernst had available to spend. Hinson and multiple aides did not respond to requests for comment…
Ernst said last year that she intended to run for reelection, but she’s had recent setbacks. She lost her bid to be the No. 3 GOP leader late last year to Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton. And her early concerns about Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, put Ernst under fierce scrutiny from MAGA allies — some of whom accused her of trying to angle to claim the top Pentagon job herself.…
Banging one’s head against the GOP glass ceiling is apparently discouraging, even for someone in a ‘secure’ seat.
Sen. John Thune (R-SD) admitted to reporters that he is scrambling to prevent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) from retiring from her seat, Politico reported on Thursday.
— Raw Story (@rawstory.com) July 10, 2025 at 5:40 PM
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone 😊 😊 😊
Janus Daniels
Republican campaigns are grifts. Joni Ernst is a grifter among grifters trying to grift more grift from billionaire donors.
RepubAnon
I wonder why so many rats on this ship starter wearing life preservers?
SiubhanDuinne
@rikyrah:
Good morning, merry sunshine!
Ten Bears
Maybe she’s feeling her age, looks pretty haggard, rode hard put up wet
Looks like a tweaker, a meth-head: methamphetamine addict …
WereBear
They keep bringing their best, and that’s the problem.
Xavier
Everyone dies baby that’s a fact…
–The Boss
Omnes Omnibus
Palate cleanser. The Swedish Chef performing Rapper’s Delight.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Omnes Omnibus: The world needs more Muppets.
kindness
Joni is reading the tea leaves. She sees what’s coming. But, you know…it’s Iowa for FSM’s sake. Iowa used to have Democratic representatives, but those days are in the rear view mirror. I’m a glutton for some punishment. If Democrats there put up a decent candidate, I’ll donate. Better than consigning myself to Republican misery & rule.
eclare
@Omnes Omnibus:
That is awesome.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@kindness: I know, it’s a massively heavy lift, but there’s this voice in the back of my head, quoting I can’t remember who, saying “you lose 100 percent of the battles you don’t fight.”
scav
Republican leaders apparently want to run as masked and anonymous as their booted stormtrooper henchmen.
bbleh
Personally, I’m rooting for injuries.
Jeffg166
She can’t handle the hostile town meetings. No way she is subjecting herself to more abuse from the peasants.
Professor Bigfoot
@rikyrah: GOOD MORNIN’!!
West of the Rockies
@Jeffg166:
BINGO! I think the miserable woman doesn’t want to be called on and have to answer for her heartless rhetoric.
Also… Don’t you think she looks tired?
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
Dems running in the Iowa primary to see who challenges her for her Senate seat: State senator enters race for Ernst’s seat
They Call Me Noni
@Omnes Omnibus: Coffee and chair dancing. Thank you!
Baud
Red state Dems are heroes.
tam1MI
We have been having many discussions of late of Dem politicians over reliance on consultants who make money by giving catastrophically bad advice which causes them to lose elections. It seems as if our concerns are at least making their way into liberal parts of the legacy media…
archive.ph/9LNP2
Betty
Her spokesman thinks running on the BBB is a plus? That with her decisive role in getting Hegseth approved ought to be two strikes against her.
ErikaF
@West of the Rockies: Let’s get it going. Don’t you think Trump looks tired?
bbleh
@tam1MI: well, better late than never.
Personally given the rather spectacular lack of leadership from the Dem “leadership” of late, which no doubt depends to a material degree on “consultant brain” and other sclerotic disorders, I”m with Josh Marshall on the hypothesis that the Democratic Party is its VOTERS and we seem to be doing just fine, thank you.
I’m not one to casually dismiss years of experience and the refinement of talent over time, but I’m more and more in favor of a serious housecleaning at the top. Time for some of the younger echelon — governors, some Reps (I’m still pretty cool w Jeffries; he’s kept things in line), and some of the younger folks from the Biden administration — to get the corner offices.
Geminid
@kindness: Iowa Democrats have one Representative in Congress, and last year they came within 2000 votes of electing a second.
That’s still down from the three they elected in the 2018 Blue Wave, but I expect they’ll have at least two after next year’s midterms.
Ramona
John Thune’s saying that he’s doing everything he can to ensure Ernst runs again leads me to believe she might be holding out in another bid for the number 3 GOP position. I do not know if Senate positions are shuffled after off-year elections.
Professor Bigfoot
@Ramona: Avarice and mendacity are better predictors of Republican behavior, so I suspect you’re onto something there.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
Yeah, but there’s a good number of other opportunities to pick up the House seats needed to get us to 218.
We’d need to pick up four Senate seats to get to 51, and that’s where Iowa could matter. It’s a long shot, but there really aren’t that many other possibilities, even long shots, other than Maine and NC. ETA: After those two, we’re down to places like Iowa, Nebraska, Alaska, and more expensively, TX and FL.
japa21
@Ramona:
It tells me he is concerned about losing the race to a Dem and feels she would have the best chance to win. Iowa = farmers = people being screwed by the tariffs and ICE. The right Dem can win that state.
Jackie
Morning Joe was discussing Ernst this morning, speculating she has a bullseye on her back. She was in leadership, and Tom Cotten ran against her and knocked her out of that position and she felt betrayed. Then her views regarding Hegseth being unqualified for def secretary due to his drinking habits and rumored sexual assaults backfired. MAGA turned on her and reportedly FFOTUS threatened to primary her if she didn’t vote for Hegseth. Then of course her infamous “we’re all going to die” tone deaf response at the town hall…
I see a very familiar anti woman attack campaign coming from the WH.
I don’t support her, I don’t excuse her – she’s a vile, evil person, and I won’t be surprised if she decides against running again. I’m also curious to see if FFOTUS, Thune and the MAGA senate leadership publicly and strongly urge her to stay or if they mouth lukewarm.
bbleh
@japa21: The right Dem can win that state.
And btw this is why (Howard Dean was right, dammit) Dems must contest EVERY race of any significance in EVERY state. “The right Dem” is much less likely to spring out of nowhere than to have established a profile already.
kindness
@Geminid: I’m confident Democrats will take the House in 2026. The Senate is key to stopping the Trump admin imho.
Torrey
Zach Wahls, the state senator, is the young man who, as a college student, gave a brilliant speech in support of marriage equality, specifically against a bill that would ban same-sex marriage. Here he is as the newly elected state senate minority leader, reflecting on that speech and where it led him. Glad to see his name showing up as a potential national politician. A good example of the younger people the party needs in leadership.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: Resources spent on an Iowa Senate race will help Democratic House candidates.Ed. Anyway, I don’t think Democrats will be reluctant to put resources into more House districts than we need to take the House. As one observer said, “put a lot boards in the water, this could be a big wave.”
rikyrah
@Geminid:
2000 votes against someone who just voted for that Trump Tax Scam Bill
NotMax
Iowa stubborn.
;)
trollhattan
If Ernst retires while Grassley is still in office, that will be Peak Iowa.
Geminid
@rikyrah: This would be Rep. Marianette Miller Meeks. She represents Iowa’s 1st CD, which includes Davenport and Bettandorf on the Mississippi River opposite Rock Island and Moline, Illinois.
Miller-Meeks actually won last year by only 899 votes. That was a landslide compared to the election that first put her in Congress, in 2020. She won that one by 6 votes.
Miller-Meeks will turn 70 this September, so she might decide to retire instead of running again.
Ten Bears
@ErikaF: & East of here West of the Rockies
You mean like haggard? Rode hard and put away wet?
Ksmiami
@kindness: I was just thinking that the Dems should label the GoP as the death cult party once and for all…
RaflW
Late to this thread, but WTF does this even mean? I read it as the Senator thinking she’s “delivering” for Iowa when people inside the beltway make a pig-like sound? What?
“Senator Ernst is focused on her work delivering for Iowans in the Senate to make Washington ‘squeal’.”
Iowa is going to see a bunch of rural hospitals close. Who tf can know what is going to happen to corn and soy exports in this tariff-disrupted world, and the redistribution of wealth upwards is not designed to help small family farms.
This GOP Congress passes nearly no bills.
Deliver? Pffffft.
TurnItOffAndOnAgain
@bbleh: I’d refine that a little. We were just talking about how it’s more expensive to run some campaigns in some places than in others.
What should probably be done is evaluate which places with the least chance would demand the least money. Then even if you don’t win, you didn’t spend a lot to lose.
tam1MI
@bbleh: I’m still pretty cool w Jeffries; he’s kept things in line
My only beef with Jeffries is his overly harsh response to a question about the possibility of a primary challenge, especially after how mealy-mouthed he has been about Republican depredations. Other Dems have the right to primary you, dude, stop acting like Darth Vader finding someone’s lack of faith disturbing and make the case to be re-elected!
tam1MI
The harsh response:
msn.com/en-us/news/politics/hakeem-jeffries-warns-progressives-of-painful-lesson-if-challenged/ar-AA…
No One You Know
@ErikaF: I’m wondering if this is a future rotating tag!
TONYG
When Ernst made that philosophical observation, the proper response would have been “You first, bitch.”.
TONYG
When Ernst made that philosophical observation, the proper response would have been “You first, bitch.”. xx
Anonymous At Work
Ernst staked a lot of Hegseth, who is an embarrassment. She vouched that a twice-fired-for-drunken-conduct (plus probably “light embezzlement”) and financial mismanagement should be in charge of the US Military. He’s losing what control he had and a Democrat will say “She’s the Senator who claims to be overseeing him. B%!!$#!*”
Geminid
@tam1MI: Wasn’t that “overly harsh” response from a Jeffries aide? You make it sound like Jeffries himself made it.
Geminid
@tam1MI: That headline does not match the story below it. The editors at Raw Story knew that, but they also know how to stir up shit.
NobodySpecial
@RepubAnon: They did their one job, now it’s time to go collect the safe bag. Assholes, all of them.
Martin
@Geminid: Yeah, it was from a senior staffer, not Jeffries.
The ‘overly harsh’ part of it was the ‘Team Gentrification’ attack which was really not helpful. Jeffries public message has been all about growing the party, and that phrase from a senior advisor, suggesting that young white voters aren’t welcome in the party is, uh, well lets just note that Trump picked up 10 points with young voters from 2020 to 2024, and Mamdani turned them out in crazy numbers. Pushing young voters out of the Democratic Party (doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily go to the GOP) is not what Jeffies’ campaign should be doing, even to defend him from a primary. Having young voters turn to Stein or whoever would be nearly as disastrous as turning to Trump.
Geminid
@Martin: It wasn just the headline that was misleading. The article was manipulative too. The part about the rail contract is a tell.
Chris T.
@ErikaF:
No. I think he looks like he’s been dead for weeks and is starting to rot.
planetjanet
@bbleh: Are you donating to your local or state party to fund that? I am. Also we are fielding candidates for every seat in the state legislature this year. It takes work and resources and is done by us. Knocking on doors, calling voters, registration drives. How can you help?