*BELLS TOLL* THE KING IS DEAD *BELLS TOLL* LONG LIVE THE NEW KING!:
There has been a swirl of reports on the status of Iran’s supreme leader since this morning, when it was clear that his residence had been targeted in the first strikes.
Satellite images showed significant damage to his compound. The first response from Iran was that he had been taken to a safe place. Then came a report that the 86-year-old cleric was to speak on state television, but nothing materialised.
By early evening, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a televised address used an expression that the supreme leader was “gone” – but he didn’t say Khamenei was “dead”.
But a series of reports on Israeli and US media, quoting unnamed officials, left no doubt about his fate.
All the while, Iranian officials have continued to deny it. One presenter on Iranian state television, without mentioning Khamenei’s name, told the Iranian people to ignore the “enemy’s psychological propaganda”. It is hard to ignore this latest social media post from Donald Trump.
It may be that Iranian officials are preparing to make an announcement with a certain amount of ceremony. It may be that Iran’s Assembly of Experts is already meeting or preparing to do so – they are charged with the responsibility of choosing a new supreme leader.
Orange Julius Caesar is doing victory laps and screaming shit about people taking back the country when we all know that the Iranian mullahs, much like Republicans, have displayed a remarkable ability to replace one awful person or idea with something or someone horrifyingly worse.
Anyone who says they know what is going on is full of shit, but I will say that things will most certainly get messier in the power vacuum and all sorts of craziness may break out. Literally the only thing we can be sure of is that a lot more innocent people will die and that Trump will try to make a buck off this. I’m not even going to bother looking at any casualty reports because early reports are always wrong and our information environment is so fucked up I trust nothing, but I know a lot of kids have ended up dead because of this because they always fucking do. Precision missiles aren’t that fucking precise.
Also direct assassinations of another country’s leader is not really the best precedent for someone who is world reviled.
I’ve basically been livid all fucking day since reading that news, so I took it out on some stuff around the house- hosed out Steve’s catio, sprayed a couple of gallons on water, dawn dish soap, epsom salt, and vinegar on all the weeds in the front and on the sidewalks and in the cracks in the street and the cracks by the sewer drains, that will dry them all up and then I will finish them with the propane weed burner in a couple days and then respray, and the weeds will be gone, they won’t be fucking up the streets and sidewalk and I won’t have poured a fuckton of forever chemicals into the water table. Then I went swimming and really did a lot of laps- it was packed! A whole bunch of families and kids in the splash pool, almost every lane was doubled up, and it really was perfect.
After that went to the grocery to get some cilantro, came back home and grilled up a bunch of chicken breasts, and now we are here. My new technique is I marinate them over night (I have been using a marinade with salt, pepper, minced garlic, a litle chile, oregano, a couple limes, an orange or blood orange, and less than a table spoon of oilve oil and let them sit over night). Then I get the grill piping hot, sear them, and then turning the heat down. When they are 95% done, I take them off, and I put them in a glass lasagne tray and cover it with the lid and let them sit for twenty minutes or so. They are so juicy. As I write this I feel like I have already said this before. Whatever- it works that well.
And the marinade is so light it just adds a little sweetness to the sear on the outside from the citrus, so they are the perfect blank canvas to pull out and season and throw on a skillet for thirty seconds. I slice them up and season them for burritos or use different seasonings to put on top of a salad. Minus, of course, the Steve and Bolo taxes.
Despite all this, today is a good day because not only did my quarterly cpap supply arrive but I also got a 19 dollar jewelry cleaner and Joelle, I can report, can finally see out of her glasses. And her wedding ring looks great. And there is a new SNL.
Peace out. I’m not checking any more nws tonight so feel free to document the atrocities below.
Craig
Stealing that marinade. Sounds great.
Scout211
We have a blood orange tree and I can confirm they are the best tasting oranges ever. I would bet that a marinade with a blood orange would be delicious.
MattF
I’ve discovered Heartbeat Hot Sauce Company. Canadian, they have an Amazon store. A lot of little hot sauce companies try to be the hottest— this one goes hot and fruity, e.g., hot mango, hot pineapple, hot blueberry. Worth a try, IMO.
VeniceRiley
My heart is with the regular people of Iran. To a man, woman and child, they were unfailingly kind and gracious, great hosts, super in every way. I’ve wept for them since the revolution, and I hope for their future.
twbrandt
Some good news – Soonergrunt posted this on bluesky a bit ago (you need a bluesky account to read the link):
New Deal democrat
Just want to leave this counter-intuitive idea here…
The best tactic for opponents of this war to do in Congress is *not* to offer a Resolution opposing the use of force in Iran, but rather to bring to the floor a Resolution *supporting* the use of force.
Why? Because for a Resolution to be effective, it must not only win a majority in both Houses of Congress, it must also overcome if necessary a Veto by 2/3’s supermajorities.
T—-p would certainly Veto any Resolution opposing the use of force, and there will never be a 2/3’s majority to overturn it. The result would then be that the Resolutuion failed, and T—-p can do as he pleases.
But if a Resolution *authorizing* the use of force failed to win a simple majority in even one House of Congress, that would be a refusal by Congress to declare war, and would not be subject to any Veto. Opponents of the war in Congress would then have a very good argument that the military must refuse as unlawful any further orders by T—-p to continue the use of military force in Iran, threatening court martials and prosecutions if and when Democrats retake power. Large sections of the military might well heed those threats.
It’s sad that we are here, but well, we are.
Baud
Makes me wonder how things would have turned out of the protests from a few weeks ago had succeeded. But I’m skeptical that the wishful thinking that our intervention will jump start those protests will bear fruit. I suppose, like winning the lottery, there’s always a chance.
CaseyL
I made another batch of mushroom soup, which came out just fine though I think not as good as the last batch. (I vary it each time depending on which variety of mushrooms I’m able to get at the grocery and what cooking booze I have in the house.)
I also want to give a little shout-out to Taste of Masala, an Indian restaurant not far from me. Their tandoori salmon is haunting my dreams.
Sally
Johns McCain and Bolton will be so pleased.
And how is this going down in the (mostly ME) Institute of Peace ….
mrmoshpotato
@CaseyL:
Haunting?
JetsamPool
@Scout211: Blood orange marmalade is also delicious, and has a strikingly beautiful color.
Jay
@New Deal democrat:
Unfortunately, “The War Powers Resolution”, of 1973 gives US Presidents basically a “free hand” to use US Military force for 90 days with out Congressional approval.
DJTidiot, Timu Nazi and Kegsbreath are not going to carry out either a long conflict, boots on the ground or seek Congressional approval absent major blowback.
Smiling Happy Guy (aka boatboy_srq)
Best take on today that I have seen was on emptywheel: UNTRUSTWORTHY.
Scout211
Oooh, yum!
Omnes Omnibus
Delete because what’s the point of debating with someone who is an “expert” at everything?
eclare
You can put glasses in a jewelry cleaner?
Another Scott
@twbrandt: Thanks for the update. Great to hear that SG is on the mend!
Fingers crossed for a rapid and complete recovery.
Best wishes,
Scott.
eclare
@VeniceRiley:
I remember around 2006 when Jason Jones of The Daily Show went there. He interviewed the proverbial men on the street, every one just happy to talk to a US news show. I remember one guy showed off his W impression at the insistence of his girlfriend.
Jackie
@twbrandt: Fantastic news re Soonergrunt! Continuing healing vibes to him! Plus🤞🏻for extra measures!
Jay
@eclare:
Jewelry cleaners are just ultrasonic tubs, that use micro vibrations to agitate the solvent, ( which is often just water).
The same effect can be achieved with a vibrator and a sealed container filled with water, by pressing the vibrator against the container.
It can be a “muscle relief” vibrator or a sex toy, provided it’s set on high.
eclare
@Jay:
I am going to guess that about 90% of vibrators are marketed for muscle or neck relief. Yeah.
youtu.be/q0m0ycTS_H8?si=cW5n4HReWz86ppEn
cain
@Scout211: blood orange seems apropos.
With Pakistan and Afghanistan also doing their best to best each other and Iran and U.S./Israel going at it. This is the best Ramadan/Purim evah! I bet Jehovah is super proud.
The Pale Scot
Ok lasses and lads, lets start to get this out of our systems
I’ve been stomping around my house screaming bastards all day
Sean Bean – Yorkshireman – Bastard Compilation
Nukular Biskits
What’s your recipe?
Nukular Biskits
@Jay:
Uh … are we in “Balloon Juice: After Dark” so I can ask the relevant questions?
Jay
@eclare:
It varies. The Hitachi “Magic Wand” is great for muscle relief.
Can be carefully used for female external stimulation.
Cannot be used for internal stimulation of either sex.
I would guess, like Bondi’s Big Bag of Secret Dildo’s and Sex Toy’s, many people have a vibrator on hand designed purely for sexual stimulation, more than people have a vibrator designed predominantly for muscle relief.
You can do the same thing, (sealed container) with an oscillating multitool.
Jay
@Nukular Biskits:
Yes, it’s always darkest before the dawn.
WaterGirl
@twbrandt: So glad to hear the good news!
NotMax
Songwriter and singer Neil Sedaka died yesterday, two weeks shy of turning 87.
schrodingers_cat
I am glad that Mr. Cat is back home before this new misadventure started.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: That is good. Not a great time to be traveling overseas.
TS
I am pleased that the Australian Foreign Minister made a much better statement than the PM (She usually does).
Australia was not involved in the major Israeli-United States operation in Iran that has reportedly decapitated its leadership.
Senator Wong also confirmed Australia was not told in advance of Operation Epic Fury.
“Obviously, we did not participate in the strikes and you would not expect us to participate,” she said.
Senator Wong urged the resumption of dialogue and diplomacy, which had been underway until the surprise attack.
abc.net.au/news/2026-03-01/australia-not-involved-iran-operation-epic-fury/106401742
Interesting Name Goes Here
@New Deal democrat: Here’s the problem.
1) I’m pretty sure the GOP still have simple majorities in both houses, and they’ll be voting for it lockstep, so that would kill the plan right there…
2) …if it wasn’t for the fact that any Dem even advocating for this, even if it were to attempt a rugpull like what’s described, would immediately be marked for political career death by every grifter and opportunist that currently infests and afflicts the Democratic party because nuance is dead and Bernie Sanders strangled it to death.
3) Speaking of Bernie Sanders and rugpulls, he’d probably be one of the ones to vote for an authorization if it came to it, because nothing revs his motor up like grandstanding anti-establishmentarism.
schrodingers_cat
@WaterGirl: Thanks. He had to be there for his mother’s last rites.
PsiFighter37
Looks like the Iranians confirmed Khameini is toast. Honestly I am more concerned that Iran becomes a failed state. Having that kind of mess right in the heart of the Middle East is bad for everyone. The felon is too chicken to put boots on the ground (thankfully), but there is no military force there that could go in. Israel for obvious reasons, and none of the Sunni Muslim countries will want to turn their soldiers into target practice.
Jay
jesspiper.substack.com/p/access-denied
John Cole
@Omnes Omnibus: I didn’t even say anything.
Nukular Biskits
@Jay:
It isn’t just Missouri.
Archon
@PsiFighter37: One advantage Iran has is that its more or less been a cohesive nation state for thousands of years. This isn’t Syria or Libya and it definitely isn’t Iraq. I think the culture is too cohesive to collapse into anarchy but then again with Trump involved anything is possible.
Steve LaBonne
@TS: I am struggling to understand what in the fuck Albanase and Carney think they’re doing.
Chetan R Murthy
@Steve LaBonne: i cannot speak to Albanese, but Carney? He was always a Centrist. The idea that somehow a Centrist is going to disapprove of decapitation of the Iranian regime, that’s a non-starter. It is what it is.
Almost Retired
My sister and I are at my Mom’s house in the Midwest trying to get it ready for sale, now that we’ve moved Mom back to California and into assisted living. If there is such a thing as a well-organized hoarder, that would be Mom. Lots of useless stuff, but it’s carefully sorted into labeled plastic bins.
For the first few hours, it was taking us forever. We would find and reminisce about some long-forgotten item from our childhood, or try to puzzle out the identity of friends of our parents in the photo bins.
But by hour five it was like “What’s this shit?” “I don’t know. Toss it.”
The extent to which social security numbers were plastered all over routine financial correspondence in the 90s and early 00s is astonishing. It should have been the golden age of low-tech identity theft.
So here’s my PSA – get rid of the crap you don’t need NOW, and don’t assume sorting and labeling your crap is any sort of equivalent. You’re welcome. Now back at it.
ETA. Wait!?! Did something happen in the Middle East?
Geminid
@PsiFighter37: If the Islamic Republic falls, I’m not going to worry about comes after. I credit the Iranian people with the ability to sort their problems out. And whatever they come up with will be much better than what they’ve put up with the last 47 years, and what they went through last month.
Baud
@Almost Retired:
Your advice is that I need to exert effort now so that other people can avoid effort later?
CaseyL
@mrmoshpotato: In a good way. I want more of it.
ArchTeryx
@Jay: This really surprises anyone? In an environment where negative partisanship absolutely rules and representatives pick their own voters, there is no more need for constituent services. The fanatics pick who wins the election in the primary and they’ll vote for whoever is the nastiest. So they just barricade their offices, call them private properly, and like good little guard dogs, the police go right along with it.
The right to petition is now bought and sold like any other commodity. You ain’t one of the bidders, so you count for exactly nothing. That’s where we are now in red districts.
Almost Retired
@Baud: Yeah, that’s the flaw in my advice, and I personally don’t intend to follow it. I’m just getting rid of the embarrassing stuff. Plus, maybe some day my sons will enjoy my mix tapes.
piratedan
@Steve LaBonne: It’s not like Iran has many friends out there, much like Maduro/Venezuela. It’s easy to support the Iranian people (and their attempts to overthrown Theocracy) but their leadership is heavily responsible with providing Russia the means to keep hitting Ukraine. Foreign Policy is hard and makes for some uneasy bedfellows.
wjca
My schadenfreude is going full blast seeing at Pakistan and Afghanistan (i.e. the Takuban) going at each other tooth and nails. All those years of Pakistan charging the US (et al.) high prices to ship supplies thru their territory**, and then having their ISI spend the money to support the Taliban in attacking our troops. Chickens. Roost.
** Historical note: Iran offered us free transit to Afghanistan. They didn’t even get the courtesy of a reply. How different history might have been if we’d taken that offer. I don’t like theocracies. But given a choice between one whose people have been civilized for millennia (Iran), or one who are barely two generations from itinerant camel herders (Saudi Arabia), I’d rather opt for the civilized folks.
Baud
@piratedan:
Agreed. Trump’s awfulness (and Netanyahu’s) don’t make the Iranian regime good guys. This is awful people vs. awful people.
Jay
@Chetan R Murthy:
We have a lot of Iranian-Canadians and Iranian refugee’s in Canada, clustered in small communities in urban centers that have significant impact on both campaigns and elections.
We have Iranian “elite” who fled the Revolution, Government members, SAVAK, military, CEO’s, tend to have fled with a lot of money, are subject to criminal prosecution for real crimes, back in Iran, and many of their kids are in jail in Canada, for criming. In the late 980’s there were shoot outs, in the streets, in daylight, between the Iranians, the Bratva and the Red Dragons.
Later, we got an influx of Iranians, who fled the Revolution, Democracy Activists, Opposition supporters, LGTBQ-+, religious minorities, and they still arrive.
Lastly, we had and influx of economic refugee’s who used the Family Reunification Program or the Skills Program to come to Canada. They vary, from very “skills in demand” and talented, to unskilled labour.
Generally, being publicly against the Iranian Regime, and beoing for the Iranian people, is the norm here.
Martin
@Almost Retired: “It should have been the golden age of low-tech identity theft.”
It was. It’s gotten harder to do identity theft, but when you figure it out you can now do it at scale. Was a lot harder to steal a million identities in the 90s. Now it’s not much harder than stealing one.
wjca
If it falls, what most likely replaces it is a military dictatorship run by what is now the Revolutionary Guard leadership. Mullahs and their ideology, gone. Stuff like the Iranians saw last month, unchanged.
Omnes Omnibus
@John Cole: It wasn’t you. This time.
wjca
Not quite. This is awful people (Trump et al) vs awful people (the mullahs et al) vs the Iranian people, who are getting hit from both sides. And lack the resources to strike back effectively at either.
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat: I’m glad he’s home safely!
Baud
Jay
@Geminid:
The Western and Middle East Intelligence experts all believe that the “next” Iranian Regime will be more extremist, hardline and dominated by the IRGC.
CaseyL
On the one hand, Iran’s leadership were incredibly awful in so many ways – supporting various terrorist groups for decades, aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine, and committing atrocities against their people. I don’t think too many people are going to mourn Khameini’s passing, or any other members of the leadership class.
On the other hand, this is the Trump Administration. They will fuck things up beyond recognition, just like Bush II did Iraq. Factions fighting for control of a country that is already on the ropes economically and environmentally, another few million refugees fleeing, and Trumpies going in to loot the place. Not to mention destabilizing the entire region AGAIN.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@zhena gogolia:
OT, I just wanted to ask, are we good?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@schrodingers_cat:
That’s good to hear. I wouldn’t want to be flying through the ME these days
Ohio Mom
@Almost Retired: The author of the Art of Swedish Death Cleaning suggests you reduce the amount of your embarrassing things to fit in a shoebox and label the box, I forget exactly but something along the lines of “To be tossed upon death.”
I recently helped the daughter of my friend who had to be moved into memory care to empty mon/friend’s apartment. We quickly reached the point you describe, “What’s this, it’s garbage.”
So much stuff. All of it purchased with the confidence it was very much needed.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Which is what war proponents said about the post-Saddam Iraq & post-Qaddafi Libya.
& that presumes Israel & Trump are interested in a united & reinvigorated Iran emerging, as opposed to keeping the country weak, divided, if not dismembered.
Professor Bigfoot
@Omnes Omnibus: I only just got here!
YY_Sima Qian
In case anyone is looking for sanity from Europe, France & Germany have both expressed support for the U.S.-Israeli war.
As for the argument that the Islamic regime being oppressive, aggressive, & a source of regional instability, all clearly true, I find it hard to argue that the chastened Iran post-collapse of the “Arc of Resistance” is a greater threat to regional stability than Bibi or Trump.
OTOH, Khamenei getting assassinated probably does Iran a favor, whatever regime to follow. He has proven out of touch, uncompromising, & yet indecisive at the same time.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Nobody “likes” the Iranian Regime, other than ruZZia, the NORK’s, some Iraqi Militia’s, Hezbollah and the Houthi’s, and even they don’t like the Iranian Regime all that much.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: I was aware of that. I’m glad he got to go, but I’m also glad he made it home before this.
Gretchen
@schrodingers_cat: I’m glad he got home safely.
Gretchen
@Jay: I saw that on Facebook: I follow Jess and the work she does in rural Missouri. In the comments lackey after lackey said it was her fault for thinking they should talk to her, that she was acting “entitled” to think her Congressman or his staff should ever talk to anyone. I swear it’s discouraging how many people are willing to just give away their rights to authority.
Gretchen
@Almost Retired: in the 70s my social security number was my student ID number at the University of Michigan. It was all over every piece of University paper.
Ohio Mom
@Gretchen: That’s how I memorized my Social Security number, looking at the test grades posted outside the prof’s office, identified by SSN. Up until then, I’d had no reason to learn it.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Ohio Mom:
@Gretchen:
That’s crazy. I think I read that driver’s licenses used to have SSNs on them too back in the day
Almost Retired
@Ohio Mom:
That’s how test grades were posted when I was in law school in Los Angeles in the mid-80’s. Almost all of my classmates were born in California and had numbers beginning with 9. I was born in the Midwest so my SSN starts with 4. I complained to the administration that I was identifiable to anyone who understands the geographic component (back then) of the Social Security number assignation system. Although to be honest, I had recognized the problem early on, but never complained until I got a middling grade.
The administration essentially told me the solution was to not tell anyone I was born in the Midwest. Cool. Problem solved.
You can imagine how I respond to fundraising requests from my alma mater. They did change the practice shortly thereafter, but I doubt my complaint had anything to do with it.
Trivia Man
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): In Utah, mid-80s, I opted ut of having my ssn on the drivers license. Simple check box – but you had to request it. All of my friends laughed and said I was a tinb foil hat freak.
Joelle
@MattF: sold!
Melancholy Jaques
@Gretchen:
Same for me at your arch rival Ohio State University (Nobody used “the” back in those simpler times.) I still have my ID in a box of such things and I pulled it out and looked to make sure before I wrote this comment.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Trivia Man:
LOL. That’s silly. Even back then, your SSN could be stolen and used fraudulently
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Nobody liked Saddam, either. Yet more of the Western world were actually more willing to criticize GWB’s misadventure, at a time when US unipolarity was still operative.
Geminid
@Jay: I have read the prediction that this would be next iteration of the Islamic Republic. It’s been widely circulated
But I said “if the Islamic Republic falls…” because that was the prospect raised by the person I was responding to.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I said what I said and I stand by it.
Jay
@Geminid:
The Islamic Republic, has in many ways, been sorta “true” to Shia Islam,………. the harshest version, but still,……………
The IRGC, not so much.
So, the general consensus is that Iran will get much worse under the iron fist of the IRGC, for both the population, their neighbors and their targets.
Kinda like what the US is going through under the Epstein Class, but much, much worse.
Geminid
I don’t assume the IGRC won’t fall with the Islamic Republic. But I just speak for myself on this point, not for some “general consensus.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I hope Iranians are afforded, & seize, the opportunity to organize a better regime than the Islamist one under Khamenei (a low bar), but I am not hopeful that Bibi, Trump, or indeed the Gulf monarchs are interested in them having that chance. Right now & for the near future, Bibi & Trump have a lot of influence on events in Iran. They may not be able to install their preferred regime just through bombing, but they can make sure Iran becomes a failed state like Libya (perhaps that is their preferred outcome).
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Or, US and Israeli forces may be able to take down enough of Iran’s security apparatus to enable Iran’s people to topple the Islamic State. I’m not saying they can, but I wouldn’t say they can’t, either. The events of the next week will tell.
And by the way: when you say I’m using arguments used regarding Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011, you’re really saying nothing. This is not Iraq in 2003 or Libya in 2011; it’s Iran in 2026 and I think people need to analyse this situation in that singular context.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Toppling the Islamist regime & replacing it with/ something better is not the same thing. Can Israel-US topple the regime w/ just air strikes, historical evidence argues strongly against it, but if the regime is that brittle, it might happen.
How will the Iranians able to build something better, as opposed to descending into anarchy? Nothing Israel or the US is doing work in that direction, & there is no organized opposition ready to step in to fill the vacuum. Yes, Iran is more secular & better educated by the standards of the region, but so was Saddam’s Iraq.
WaterGirl
@Jay:
That’s a surprise. //
MCat
@twbrandt: Great news!