I’m very nervous about Gustav. Three years ago, I met Katrina victims, George and Martha in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, where I am from. Some of my old blog posts – discussions with George and Martha – are featured in a book, Diary From The Dome.
Ray Nagin has ordered everyone to leave. Thanks to George Bush, New Orleans is not prepared for this one either. Not even close.
Republicans don’t even remotely deserve to win in November, but if their response to this hurricane is even remotely like what happened during Katrina, then I would hope even the most die-hard Republicans would give a big “fuck you” to their party.
I am up at 3:55am watching the track of this storm. I am nervous. I am hoping against hope that the storm just dissipates. It won’t, of course.
john b
“I am up at 3:55am watching the track of this storm. I am nervous. I am hoping against hope that the storm just dissipates.”
you and me both.
jesus why am i sitting here reading blogs when there’s a warm bed (with a wonderful woman who i’m sure would prefer me there) just down the hall?
UncommonSense
I live in Baton Rouge. I’m scared, too.
This storm is already a Category 4 hurricane, and it hasn’t even hit the warm water in the Gulf yet. This is going to be a catastrophe – a defining event in the lives of those who experience it.
For all the talk about New Orleans, the projected track of Gustav has it plowing right into Vermilion Bay on the central southern coast of the state. The entire southern part of Louisiana is well below sea level. A 15-20 foot storm surge will be devastating. There are communities like Houma/Thibodaux, Morgan City, New Iberia, and Lafayette that are directly in the storm’s path. On the current course, New Orleans will catch hell from the wind, rain, and storm surge on the eastern side of the storm, which is where all the force is. But Gustav will run over those cities in south and southwest Louisiana like a freight train. The destruction in those communities will likely be the real story in the days after the storm makes landfall.
My job requires me to be here, but I sent my family out of state to stay with my wife’s parents. I was not willing to risk having them anywhere near this monster.
JGabriel
Michael D.:
The Bush response will be better, now that LA has a Republican governor. But the damage, if the projections are on target, will be much worse anyway – due not only to Gustav’s strength as a storm, but also to the extensive Katrina-related damage that was never repaired. The infrastructure to survive a storm like Gustav is gone.
And if Gustav moves anywhere to the east of it’s projected path, the new theme for New Orleans will be “My City Is Gone”. Depending on how big Gustav gets, it might end that way anyhow.
I hope I’m wrong.
In the interim, I hope anyone who doesn’t have an absolute necessity to be in the region gets the hell out of there. This looks even bigger than Katrina.
.
TenguPhule
If there is a God, She’s definitely making sure people remember why Republicans should never be in charge of anything.
JGabriel
TenguPhule, I noted something similiar in an earlier thread, but it seems to bear repeating here:
It’s ironic that the same people who prayed for rain to interrupt Obama’s acceptance speech will now have their own convention postponed due to hurricane.
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JenJen
You’re from New Brunswick? I visited for a mere day, and when I arrived in Halifax, I learned quickly that New Brunswick jokes come fast and furious.
Who knew?
I’m worried about NOLA tonight. And all of the Gulf Coast residents. This Gustav looks awful.
rob!
on the money. shouldn’t someone ask James Dobson why God hates Republicans so much?
Catfish N. Cod
Well, some good news, John & all: the pass over Cuba sucked some energy out of the storm; it’s down to 125 mph winds. It’s going back to Category Four once the energy of the Loop Current hits it, but it may not make Cat Five after all. Maybe. We are bad at intensity forecasting and the NHC knows it.
Worse news is that interaction with land jogged the track about thirty miles to the right, which puts landfall now at Grand Isle. I’m not worried so much about Grand Isle — the Cajuns there have been ground to pieces many times before and never let it faze them. But NOLA is now at the edge of the projected 115+ mph windfield, right at the correct angle for waters to be forced into Pontchartrain. Then we get to see what three years’ work has done for the levees.
JGabriel
Yep, Catfish, I just saw the same thing over at Weather.com:
Gustav down to Cat 3, expected to pick up strength again once it hits the loop eddy to its NW in the Gulf of Mexico.
Question: Does anyone know how the loop eddy might affect the storm’s course? As it adds energy to the storm, will it pull the track closer west or push it further east?
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JGabriel
Well, here’s some possible good news.
After intesifying this afternoon, Gustav is expected to pass over a cold
JGabriel
Screwed that up (bad tag), let’s try it again:
Well, here’s some possible good news.
After intesifying this afternoon, Gustav is expected to pass over a cold eddy later tonight. That might keep it from developing into, or staying at, the Cat 4 range by landfall.
We can keep our fingers crossed, anyway.
.
DougJ
On the bright side, this is likely to help Bush politically, the same way Broder thinks Katrina did:
JL
CNN is covering the damage in Cuba. They still don’t know about the small towns but expect damage to be in the billions. Let’s hope that John McCain does not politicize the damage that this storm could cause. He might give his acceptance speech from the devestation zone.
dbrown
So Broder thinks there is a bright side to a possible Cat IV or far worse Cat V storm destoying huge areas of the US Main land; hope that guy gets a time share with Bush when worst selected President ever, stays in his prepaid hotel in hell.
Krista
Okay, you gotta share some of these jokes, ’cause I never heard any of them when I moved from N.B. to Halifax.
And Mike D., we were in Fredericton just last summer — went and had an awesome meal at El Burrito Loco. Their margaritas kick ass, I must say.
Bey
Good God, Broder is a world-class idiot.
Bush has spent the last 8 years demonstrating in every possible way the low regard he holds for the welfare of the American people.
Choosing now to behave in a merely competent and humane way — a response that is not at all assured — is an exercise in legacy CYA.
grumpy realist
The economic aftereffect from this one may be much worse, depending on exactly how much damage is done to the shipping area and the delta. Katrina wrecked a lot of infrastructure but didn’t do a direct hit on the most vulnerable geographic areas. After Gustav, we might have shipping up the Mississippi closed entirely.
(This is why I’ve been running around screaming about Why Don’t We Have a National Plan to develop heavy lift zeppelins. These are exactly what we need as a stopgap/backup.)
South of I-10
I am currently evacuated with the 4 year old, until the large red line inside a cone that appeared over my house is gone. Hopefully, there will still be a house there. My husband has to stay and work. Please send some positive energy to those who have to stay and hope it drops in strength before landfall.
Notorious P.A.T.
It’s all Ray Nagin’s fault. He should have requested better help from the federal government.
/wingnutasshole
Sinister eyebrow
It’s worth mentioning that most of those West Bank towns and parishes–Houma, Lafayette, etc.–don’t have the levy protection that NOLA does and they are at or below sea level.
When I lived in St. Charles Parish (West of NOLA about 12-15 miles) the disaster scenario for a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane predicted 15-20′ of water rolling in with the surge. St. Charles Parish was 90 miles from the Gulf. That should give some idea of how bad this may be for people in Houma, etc.
DougJ
So Broder thinks there is a bright side to a possible Cat IV or far worse Cat V storm destoying huge areas of the US Main land; hope that guy gets a time share with Bush when worst selected President ever, stays in his prepaid hotel in hell.
It’s worse than that. That’s what Broder said about Katrina on September 4.
Krista
South of I-10, we’re sending good thoughts your way. Glad to hear that you and the little one are out of harm’s way.
gbear
The McCains and Palin are flying down to Mississippi this morning with a ‘small’ press contingent to see how storm preparations are going.
The Thinking Man's Mel Torme
I’m 250 miles from the center of Gustav’s circulation here on the SW Florida coast, and the wind is worse than what we got for Fay, which was about 40 miles away.
Punchy
I simply cannot foresee how the Republican convention can go on if this thang crushes Nawlins. Talk about ready-made commercials.
Saw today that it had dropped in strength. C’est bueno.
gopher2b
If the levees break again, two things are clear:
(1) Obama should win 48 states (I give him Arizona and Alaska)
(2) New Orleans should not be “rebuilt.” The parts that are above sea level can stay, but the rest has to go.
South of I-10
Thanks Krista. Luckily for me, I have a place to stay out of state. Not only is my brother aware that John McCain was a POW, he is also aware of the soothing powers of a bottle of rum while watching hurricane coverage.
xyzzy
Umm… seriously, Michael? Look, George Bush may be a no-talent ass clown, but if New Orleans gets plastered a second time around, it’s not his fault. On the one hand, a Category 5 hurricane is… well.. shit, it’s a force beyond comprehension. Imagine a continuous nuclear explosion moving slowly over the landscape. And on the other hand, it’s not Bush’s job to micromanage. It was the Governor and Mayor’s responsibility to ensure that they were prepared or to scream bloody murder if they couldn’t get the fed to cough up the funds or the Army Engineers to get the job done, and I sure as hell don’t remember any such murder screams in the last few years. If the levees fail a second time, you can blame Nagin.
You can’t blame everything on Bush, no matter how much you dislike the guy. Hell, next you’re going to be telling me that the recent drop in my local Bigfoot population is W’s fault.
The Thinking Man's Mel Torme
Hey, has anyone seen that new, young, Republican hyperstar and go-getter Bobby Sue Jindal anywhere on the teevee? One would think he’d be all over, bringing calm to the roiled waters and inspiring others with his steely command? After all, I’ve already seen Haley Barbour’s fat ass several times today.
Suppose he’s under the bed somewhere? He does look a little jumpy.
michelle
It still could just turn into a little thunderstorm. I’d much rather hear people complain about evcuating than this storm grow.
It’s a cat 3, please let it swirl around and just bring rain.
The Thinking Man's Mel Torme
Oh Great Christ.
Bring a barf bag.
xyzzy
Katrina was Category when it made landfall.
Dave_Violence
Good to see some sensible stuff in response to your idiotic post, Mike D. There is a reason Limbaugh and Moore put people off: a) they don’t know when to stop, b) they like to hear themselves talk and thus end up believing their own bullshit, and c) – building on (b) – it just stops making sense. The City of NO has had three years to prepare since Katrina and Rita. The events have been studied repeatedly at large expense, emergency teams have been prepared, articles written, funds allocated, etc., etc., etc. The blowhards either don’t know this or are just plain disgruntled that they weren’t included (Dr. Seed and Bea come to mind – Google it, bitch!) – or worse: you WANT more destruction for the sole purpose of discrediting the republicans. Wait, Nagin’s a democrat, Blanco was a democrat. THEY messed things up last time because they’re the ones on the front line. The best they could do was whine about “republicans” not acting. Hell, Sean Penn did a better job than Blanco and his boat sank! And besides, Mississippi got hit harder.
This time, they’re better prepared, all across the board. If Gustav kicks their asses it’s because Gustav is mightier than anything humans can come up with. Go back to Canada and your dirty kitchen parties…
xyzzy
Er, “Category 3”
xyzzy
Erm, Dave, however much Nagin et al. screwed up in preparations for Katrina, Bush WAS responsible for what followed. He was the one who appointed that douchenozzle Brownie to head FEMA, an organization that exists solely to aid in disaster situations but which did nothing for DAYS (while Bush was gobbling cake with McCain, I might add). And even after “Heckuvajob” demonstrated that he had no clue and was in over his head, Bush sat around with his thumb up his ass, doing nothing.
Martin
The response will be better now that an election is on the line. Winning always trumps good governance for the GOP and good governance only seems to ever show up when it’s a campaign tactic. If anyone thinks that the Bush actually cares about Louisiana, GOP governor or not, remember that LA was a GOP stronghold when Katrina hit, and they did fuck-all for the state then.
The levees were never designed for anything more than a Cat 3. The city is supposed to drown in a larger storm. Actually, the gamble is that a larger storm will never hit the city. The only people that have the authority to change that are the feds, and that will take decades to implement.
Sinister eyebrow
May be worth pointing out to you NOLA politics and levy experts above that the Mayor doesn’t have any say in what the Army Corp of Engineers does with the levys, or how they spend the money. So trying to blame Nagin, again, for the woeful inadequacies of the levies is absurd in the extreme. That would be the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers–they don’t have to listen to any governor, or any mayor, for any reason. Federal agency.
Go check out the story out today about how the gov’t contractor fixing the Jeff Parish floodwalls was caught filling them with Newspapers for lack of federal funding.
What it comes down to is the City and even the State don’t have the manpower or resources to fix the neglect of the levys. Only the Feds do. And when the Feds (i.e. Bush and the Republicans) should have been scrambling for the last three years to right this disaster waiting to happen all over again they were busy trying to rationalize schemes to keep from funding the reconstruction and public works. Fact is, New Orleans could be made safe in the face of hurricanes much like the Netherlands was rebuilt and flood control improved after their disastrous flooding. But you have to have someone in office with a) the resources and b)who gives a shit. We have (a) but not (b).
And for you out there (and you know who you are) who continue saying NOLA should be abandoned, you can piss up a rope. New Orleans is one of the oldest and most unique cities in North America, not to mention one of the largest ports in the country and vitally important for shipping to the entire Midwest. To abandon it would be criminal for that alone, not to mention the fact that you propose turning your backs on hundreds of thousands of your countrymen at their hour of greatest need.
How about next time your house is destroyed by a fire, flood or tornado, your neighbors tell you in your misery that it was a crappy place to build so you’re on your own. Don’t ask for help, don’t ask to rebuild, don’t ask to salvage anything of your life. Just quit your whining and sit there in the ruins so the rest of us don’t have to listen to you, or feel guilty, or feel the need to do anything at all.
chopper
didn’t mccain say something after katrina about whether or not we should even rebuild NOLA?
tom.a
“He also told reporters he was not sure if he would rebuild the lower 9th ward as president. “That is why we need to go back is to have a conversation about what to do -rebuild it, tear it down, you know, whatever it is,” he said”
McCain In New Orleans: Not Sure If We Should Rebuild 9th Ward
gbear
And the companies that rebuilt the levees were contracted by the Bushies. Blow it out your ass, David_V.
KRK
This is absolutely true. People here are underestimating the extent to which Bush will tap into every discretionary pot of money to pour money into any hurricane-affected state between now and November 4. (They’ll have to hold back some initially on Gustav to see what damage Hanna does to Florida, a more important electoral state).
If you doubt this at all, look back at 2004. I credit Bush’s 2004 win in Florida (and therefore overall) to the unprecedented and frankly questionable speed with which the federal government dumped hurricane relief money into Florida in October 2004. Part of my job is tracking the federal response to natural disasters affecting agriculture and rural areas, and I can assure you that the speed with which the Bush Administration “found” money and started distributing it in Florida was unprecedented. 2004 was a big year for hurricanes, and while Florida was hard hit, they weren’t the only ones. But the Bush administration created special Florida programs, leaving hurricane damage in all other states from Alabama to Virginia unaddressed until long after the election.
Many people (including the Bushes) attribute Bush, Sr.’s loss in 1992 in some significant degree to a poor response to Hurricane Andrew. Bush, Jr. sure didn’t make that mistake in 2004.
Of course, Bush has some competing interests. His desire to salvage his “legacy” against his reported dislike of McCain.
TenguPhule
Translated.
Dave_Violence
Not at all, everyone open their mouths!
Here’s a bunch of ASCE stuff on Katrina, not that most here can begin to understand it.
It’s the ALIENS!