Looks like the Republican, Schmidt, has won in a squeaker. There are still a few precincts left to report, but it looks like it is going her way.
Barring sightings of Ken Blackwell pissing on the spark plugs of the Diebold voting machines in minority districts, this one is over.
*** Update ***
Looks like it is too close to call- it was 52-48 when I thought it was over, but Red State has it as follows:
9:49 PM EDT
Schmidt: 49,681 (50.44%)
Hackett: 48,811 (49.56%)
The only county left is Clermont, which is apparently Schmidt’s home base. Only 52% of the precincts have reported, and Schmidt is leading the county 56-44.
And although I was just joking and there have been no Blackwell sightings, the Kossacks* are looking for a recount.
*They call themselves Kossacks, so spare me the ‘Why are you calling them names’ comments that will inevitably appear appear.
*** Update ***
Now it is over. Final tally:
Schmidt: 59,095 (52%)
Hackett: 55,091 (48%)
demimondian
Actually, there’s at least one set of photos of Schmidt violating the Ohio law on canvassing today.
Not that it will matter; this one’s over. Schmidt won the vote count, and the Republicans will be running scared from now until Nov 2006.
space
Looks like the undeserving hack will win AND the Democrats aren’t frothing with rage. What’s the upside here?
SamAm
We’ll see how she likes being a Congresswoman in the minority party.
2006?
Bring it on.
Doug
Anything more recent than an 870 vote gap with 91 Clermont County precincts left to report?
Andrei
Given that at 10:32 the results are:
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
662 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 49,681 – 50%, PAUL HACKETT 48,811 – 50%
How can you claim victory yet? That’s a damn tight race with some 91 precints still left to report in.
matt
demimondian, wow, no kidding, I can’t believe Hackett actually did it. I thought it would be close, but this is just ridiculous.
Kinda feel bad for the folks of OH-02 though, politics aside(no, seriously) Schmidt really does seem like bad news.
Mike S
That the GOP can count on people voting for their candidates regardless of who or what they are.
The downside is that they usualy win by 50%+.
matt
Quick question: Hackett has said if he doesn’t win, he’ll return to Iraq if his unit is called back. Wouldn’t he have to go regardless if his unit is called back, or is there some kind of exemption?
Geek, Esq.
Uh oh.
Problems with the vote machines in the last 91 precincts. Counting by hand.
Ohio sucks.
Brian
Schimdt is the dreariest sort of hack. Yet this district is about as republican as they come (you have to go to Texas or Alabama to find more lopsided districts), so even if Hackett doesn’t win it’s a good fight and I hope they run him again in 2006.
Looking halfway like there might be a recount. Does he have a legal fund set up?
Don Surber
Hey Hackett: Tough Schmidt
Don Surber
Recount should be automatic if less than 1/2 of 1% if my recollection of Ohio election law is up to snuff
Geek, Esq.
You’re right.
The magic number is about 500 vote differential. If it’s within that number, automatic recount.
txdem
2006?
Bring it on.
Can’t wait! Really I think this race says something more than Democrats or Republicans, it just proves yet again how hungry people (from both or neither party) are for “straight shooters.” It’s really political gold, and if Paul wasn’t running in one of the reddest parts of Ohio, it wouldn’t have even been close.
Folks more or less already agree with Democrats on most issues, so hopefully this will be a wake up call to the party to start running candidates with some freaking conviction, or at least some who can fake it like President Bush, heh.
Is this also yet another nail in the coffin of the DLC? Or at least the “spines scare off the middle” faction of the DLC?
demimondian
Double uh-oh.
Local news may be reporting “voting irregularities” in Clermont County? Somebody tell me that’s just wishful thinking on dKos, please. That’s the last thing anybody needs in Ohio this year.
demimondian
Yeah: 1/2 of 1% for municipal or country elections, 1/4 of 1% for statewide elections.
The Democratic Party
The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated.
John Cole
Apparently, the problem is that the ballots swell in the humidity and get stuck in the machines, so they are counting by hand. That is the last thing I heard.
Mike S
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
753 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 57,974 52%
PAUL HACKETT 54,401 48%
db
The demographics/geography of this thing are fascinating to me… from somebody who has never been in this area (and only get reports from some people live there now)….
Hamilton (urbanish county) squeeks in for Schmidt. The suburs of Warren and Clermont counties break heavy for Schmidt. And the rural, eastern counties running into WV break heavy for Hackett….
Am I reading too much into a possible divide among “red” voters? Suburbia vs Rural????
matt
Rural voters probably dug Hackett’s libertarian vibe.
The Democratic Party
And for those wondering earlier if Democrats would simply be putting on a show with “moral victory” talk given a loss. I was reading Kos just now I saw this quote from the NRCC that I had forgotten about where they said they were going to “bury him”.
So don’t take our word for it, take the expectations of the NRCC.
mac Buckets
The thumping sound you hear is the Democrats beating the bushes for more Iraq vets to run in 2006. Good luck with all that.
Mike S
We could start playing recordings of people like Rush calling him a puke as a way to show how supportive the GOP is to vets.
BadTux
I’m puzzled as to how anybody could have ever thought that Hackett could win. This district is full of yellow dog Republicans — i.e., they’d vote for a yellow dog if it were on the ballet as a Republican. And they did. (For the record, I came across Hackett begging for money on dKos, took one look at the voter registration and demographics, and decided that my money was best spent on districts that were actually *winnable*).
– Badtux the Snarky Penguin
Andrew
On the other hand, I am evil enough to wish for a Hackett wash to watch the left wing of the blogosphere explode into a frothing mad rage.
A cursory glance at the lefty sites with reactions to the results makes it look more like joy that Hackett was within 2% of winning in the reddest of red areas rather than an explosion of frothing rage. But hey, you can’t win all the time, John. [/playful ribbing]
Democrats, rightly so, should be ecstatic that Hackett almost pulled this off.
eileen from OH
It’s interesting. The Dems got 36% of the vote in this crimson-red area in 2004. Yet, less than a year later, a Dem who called Bush a sonofabitch and said he was the biggest danger facing America got 48%.
eileen from OH
BadTux
PS: Add me to the list of those surprised by Hackett’s showing. If they ran him in a district that was actually winnable by a Democrat…
matt
BadTux, I would argue its partly your attitude that has dems in the mess they’re in when it comes to races like this in the first place. If every seat was contested like this one was, the mere notion of a seat being unwinnable wouldn’t even exist. And thanks to this campaign, that notion is extinct.
matt
It’s interesting. The Dems got 36% of the vote in this crimson-red area in 2004. Yet, less than a year later, a Dem who called Bush a sonofabitch and said he was the biggest danger facing America got 48%.
Probably(?) some of that has to do with it being a house seat vs the White House, but still, great point, and not to beat a dead horse, but it really goes to show how contemptible Kerry was as a candidate.
Sometimes I feel silly giving advice to people who should be experts (not that it stops me), but really, things like the wind surfing debacle, or walking around in an orange hat duck hunting or whatever, or not even being able to stand up for yourself when you’re basically being called a scum bag, lying traitor, seriously, seriously, what is that shit?
People in Ohio sensed in Paul Hackett what people in the blogoshpere sensed, here’s a guy who’s not concerned with anything other than telling it how he sees it, people respect that.
albedo
Yeah, Kerry sucked. Big time. That footage of him talking about Lance Armstrong on the Daily Show reminded me of how bad a candidate he was.
eileen from OH
I know what you mean. It frustrates me when the old “who would you want to have a beer with” argument gets trotted out, equating that with “likeability”. I think it’s more a matter of being perceived as INTERESTING and original. It’s why we gravitate towards “mavericks.” They usually offer something beyond the safe party line and the excrutiatingly boring blah-blah-blah. Granted, “interesting” doesn’t always translate into electoral success (hello, Rev. Sharpton)and it can bite you in the ass. But while you can win without it, your chance are a lot better with it.
In the last election, Bush was (forgive me, oh, sainted Dem ancestors) interesting. Kerry was not. Clinton was waaaay interesting. Dole was not.
In this race, Schmidt was not interesting, and Hackett was, which may go some way towards explaining why it was close in a contest that shouldn’t have been.
Yeah, it’s superficial. But, unfortunately, superficial wins elections.
eileen from OH (BTW, Hilary is interesting, Biden is not. Guiliani is interesting, Frist is not. Play along!)
SamAm
I hear we have 6 or 7 Iraq vets lined up to run for congessional seats in 2006, versus only one GOP Iraq vet trying.
No word as to whether or not they’re “staff pukes” or not. These days you have to lose 3 limbs to be considered a patriot by the GOP.
Or maybe all of them. Was that Cleland’s problem?
Speaking of which, I assume Limbaugh will be called out and cast out by the GOP for spitting such visceral hatred at our men and women in service. Really, comparing our soldiers to vomit? The right has no shame.
But congrats guys, you’ve got the great Jean Schmidt in Congress, a president who wants to teach ID in the White House, and your chief radio propagandist, himself….not a veteran, shall we say, who hates the troops.
Well done indeed.
matt
I love Jon’s look of utter despair after he plays a Kerry clip.
DougJ
“The thumping sound you hear is the Democrats beating the bushes for more Iraq vets to run in 2006.”
Two problems with that:
(1) Servicement are over 90% Republican.
(2) Being a veteran does not make you a patriot. Case in point: John Kerry. The whole idea is essentially a gimmick, taking a member of the radical left who happened to serve in Iraq and putting him forward as some great hero who will be strong on security and defense. The people will see right through it.
DougJ
“Really, comparing our soldiers to vomit?”
Rush went a little over the edge perhaps, but staff puke is an old army expression that is a little bit of a put-down (as it refers to one who doesn’t see actual combat)but is not a comparison with vomit.
Richard Bottoms
Note to Democartic leadership. Nobody runs unopposed. Not for Mayor, not for Congress, not for dogcatcher. Time we gave those theocratic nitwits the bum’s rush.
matt
DougJ, did you just put Hackett in with the radical left or were you referring possible future unknown candidates?
DougJ
I believe Hackett is a part of the radical left, yes. He called the president a “chickenhawk”. That’s radical left, Al Franken language.
eileen from OH
Or they might just think that they know what they’re talking about when they say our troops don’t have armor or have to buy things like toothpaste, fer gawd’s sake. They might just be a tad more credible about what’s really happening on the ground to our guys/gals who risk their lives every freakin’ day than a Commander In Chief who delivers plastic turkeys on Thanksgiving and hasn’t been to one funeral.
If you’re going to say you support the troops, you better be prepared to support ALL of ’em. Christian and atheist. Republican or Democrat. Radical righty or radical lefty. Paul Hackett didn’t have to go to Iraq – he bloody volunteered, not because he believed in the cause, but because he saw a need to serve his country. Which says a helluva lot about his character. And while I know John hates the “chickenhawk” meme, it sure would be great if a lot more politicians and potential politicians would use the same “gimmick” that Paul Hackett did. Lord knows, the service could use a few more people.
eileen from OH (P.S. Okay, you suckered me this time, DougJ. I still know that you’re really a hard-core lib, having us all on.)
albedo
Untrue. From the Washington Times.
Not even close.
albedo
From stuff I’ve read, officers break about 75 percent republican, while enlisted men are about the same as the rest of the population – maybe skewed slightly GOP.
DougJ
“From the Washington Times.”
Don’t you libruls usually deride this as a “Moonie paper” ;)
albedo
Yeah, I thought it might hold a bit more water for you than one of them moonbatty rags…
Randolph Fritz
“I’m puzzled as to how anybody could have ever thought that Hackett could win. This district is full of yellow dog Republicans—i.e., they’d vote for a yellow dog if it were on the ballet as a Republican”
What’s amazing is that he got close. Some of those yellow dog Republicans must have actually voted Democratic to make it that close. Looks like the Republican party is in for some stiff opposition.
David
A satirical view of the Ohio Special Election.
“Left-Blog Exit Poll Winner Paul Hackett (Hawk-OH) Demands A Refund Of Kos Kidz’ Allowance”
Sherard
I listened to Rush for about a half hour yesterday and caught the “staff puke” comment. For one thing, he was paraphrashing what he thought a caller was saying (which he wasn’t at all) in that what Hackett’s position in the Marines in Iraq was (civilian affairs) was not a “combat position”. That wasn’t the point the caller was making at all and I thought it was an uncalled for cheap shot.
Rush’ REAL point, though was that Hackett was not running as a “liberal” or a “democrat”. Despite the fact he thinks Bush is “the most dangerous man in the country” and a “sonofabitch”, nonetheless, his TV ads in Ohio were STARTING with a quote from the president about military service. He never even mentions that he is a democrat.
The whole point of the show was that you can’t benchmark this particular race as some kind of “referendum on Bush” because Hackett was essentially pretending to be something that he isn’t, a war supporter and good ole’ pal of George W. Bush. HE’s not.
He tried essentially the same thing as Kerry, dressing up in his military uniform and pretending not to be a liberal democrat.
You can try and fool the people into voting for you, but that’s no more a winning strategy than screaming “BUSH LIED!!” at the top of your lungs. Nice try, though.
space
DougJ ably sums up the (moronic) logic of the right: If you talk bad about Bush you are the “radical left”. Whatever. No wonder Republicans hate academia. Colleges have that nasty habit of teaching young Americans that political ideology is more accurately measured by the stance one takes on actual issues.
But please, don’t stop. There is no better advertisement for liberalism and the Democratic Party than a combat vet like Hackett talking about implementing a sane foreign policy or equipping, training, and paying the troops while wingnuts scream “That’s not what we’re about! That’s liberalism!”
It seems that Ohioans will take that brand of liberalism 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.
Mike
“Folks more or less already agree with Democrats on most issues, so hopefully this will be a wake up call to the party to start running candidates with some freaking conviction, or at least some who can fake it like President Bush, heh.”
Yes. That must be why Democrats did so well across the country in Congressional races in 2004. Because so many people agree with you…
space
Earth to Mike, people don’t vote based on issues.
Mike
“space Says:
Earth to Mike, people don’t vote based on issues.”
Mike to Space, never said they did.
I was just parroting back what that fellow said above MOST Americans agreen with Democrats and therefore they can win. That’s bull. Because even if true (and I don’t think it is), as you imply, there’s far more to it than issues. For example, if a candidate is endorsed by MoveOn/Kos/DU/Atrios and their ilk, that tell’s me there’s a good chance he or she is an idiot, UNLESS it’s just partisan politics, which I suspect is the case here.
Every once in awhile shoveling through the mess at Kos will expose a gem, this is one I like that sums it up best:
“Was what we were after, I wish we had least done it with a progressive candidate.
Now, before I get unduly bashed, these comments are for the larger implications of what Mr. Hackett’s efforts mean on a national level (and thus ignore the local realities of OH-02).
If Mr. Hackett’s campaign is to be a model for ’06 or ’08 for the Dem’s – well it’s looking like it will be Repub-lite all the way, for example, instead of highlighting – oh let’s say universal health coverage, he made sure everyone knew he was pro-gun. Instead of pledging to fight against global warming, he made sure everybody knew he was pro-war. Instead of trying to bring some sense into the insane war on drugs, he emphasized he was against corruption. Instead of taking a stand against religous insanity in all it’s current plentiful manifestations, he narrowly focused on bashing G. W Bush . . . (and so on).
With Bush gone and If the Repubs dump DeLay, and solidify their anti-corruption talking points (sure they’ll be completely insincere and meaningless, but people will buy it) – Hackett – running on a pro-gun, pro-war, anti-corruption, and anti-bush platform, is going to be the mirror image of every (at least newly-recruited) Repub candidate in ’08. Yup, America truly has only one political party – hence I’m having trouble buying into the ‘nice try’ elation that seems to the the current Group Think here.”
So this guy is lamenting the fact that Hackett didn’t really run (and probably isn’t ) a “Progressive”. Good. I frankly don’t much care whether Republicans or Democrats win, as long as “Progressives” lose. If the only way that the Democratic Party can compete is by running, and occasionally winning with Moderates vice Moonbats, so much the better. In fact, as I’ve stated before, I might even be tempted to help them do so.
Stormy70
Will this be the 2006 strategy? Run pro Bush local ads, then bash Bush on Hardball, which noone sees, so the lefty blogs will send money. Good luck. Turn out was also low, lots of Republicans did not vote, probably on vacation. I like the fact he couldn’t call himself a Democrat in his ads. This has been the modus operendi for southern Dems in the last few elections. They want to fly under the radar, and they make sure when Dean comes around, they have somewhere else to be.
Don Surber
110,000 people voted
300,000 voted in the district last noveember
So two thirds of the people sat it out
GOP scandal
Summer
Y’all read too much into this junk
RW
Cleland was running ads praising Bush and noting the number of times that he supported Bush’s initiatives.
He lost, too. Sometimes the voters can see through the fog and not be fooled by Democrats trying to pass themselves off as Republicans or Lieberman-type Dems when they’re not.
A. This was a local race.
B. So much for all the chest-thumping and bluster from the left side of the blogosphere. That’s quite a losing streak that they have going.
C. Insert “wait until next year” retort somewhere else….it’s being used waaaay too much today.
Another Jeff
“B. So much for all the chest-thumping and bluster from the left side of the blogosphere. That’s quite a losing streak they have going.”
Yeah, really. Being endorsed by Kos is like the blogosphere’s equivalent of the “Sports Illustrasted Jinx”.
RW
Interesting that Kos has been richly rewarded beyond his wildest dreams while most everyone connected with him and his entity is a loser (literally, not figuratively), huh? Maybe the little guy is more like a diminutive Clinton than we all realize. :)
Stormy70
Kos – the gift that keeps on giving, see also Howard Dean.
neil
Talk about beating the spread. The district goes from a 50% GOP advantage to a 4% advantage, and the right-wing here acts like it’s Nixon vs. McGovern. Of course, they acted the same way when Bush squeaked by by even less, so there’s no surprise. More like this, I say.
But hopefully Mr. Cole is a bit more thoughtful, since like the Grinch he has been robbed of the spectacle of the Kossians down in Kosville having their special-election day ruined. No, they’re actually laughing!
DougJ
“B. So much for all the chest-thumping and bluster from the left side of the blogosphere. That’s quite a losing streak they have going.”
I’ve really got to disagree with you guys here. I live about 70 miles from Cincy and go there every now and then for a game and the like, and I can tell you that district is solidly Republican. For it to be this close, says that either Coingate has a lot of traction or the Kossacks did a great job here. Possibly both.
I’m pretty scared by what happened last night. Taft has to go ASAP. And we’ve got to get better candidates the Schmidt. I don’t know why DeWine wasn’t the candidate. He would have won easily.
mac Buckets
I’ve got a potted plant that can beat any Democrat 63-47 in that district.
This was the Democrats’ shot at this seat. A Special Election for a seat with no incumbent while vacations and the coins issue (is anything more tired than ____-Gate) were going on. 1/3 of normal turnout. A Dem candidate who was in Fallujah. A Dem candidate who didn’t admit he was a Democrat in his ads. The stars all alligned for them on this one, and they still muffed it.
When a real election happens next time, I’m guessing that Schmidt won’t be the candidate and 150,000 more Ohioans, the vast majority of them GOPpers, will show up at the ballot box. They’ll drown out the hardcore 30-40K Democrats who made the election yesterday close.
mac Buckets
That would be a trick, wouldn’t it? Sigh…. Make that 63-37.
Mike
“I believe Hackett is a part of the radical left, yes. He called the president a “chickenhawk”. That’s radical left, Al Franken language.”
Meanwhile:
The Lefties just continue to prosper:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/02/AR2005080201849.html
I love it. $40M of Soros and Co. money, right down the drain…
neil
Although Billmon takes pains to say that there is not even circumstancial evidence that the vote was, uh, abnormal, there’s this:
You have to admit, the man has a point.
Jim Allen
mac Buckets, you should have run your potted plant. The vegetable that you did run didn’t show nearly as well as 63-37, did she?
And would your potted plant have been a good representative of the folks in OH-02?
mac Buckets
That was the point.
While the respective legislative effects of a plant and Schmidt would be similar, my plant is less costly to maintain than a Congressperson. So, yes.
Stormy70
And you can make pretty bouquets if it is a flowering plant.
Neil – Are the colors pretty in your world?
Rick
I wish the wingnut contingent here and at Feldmarschall Moulitsas’s site many, many, many more such symbolic victories. Gorge on them, pals.
Cordially…
Mark
It’s interesting to see the mass gloating by the right-wingers here. I can’t tell if they’re oblivious to the problem they face in OH, or that they’re just thinking happy thoughts to keep from crying.
Doug J, who lives in OH, has it right above.
Imagine if the Dem from the Berkeley district of CA won by 4 points over a Republican? We certainly wouldn’t be gloating.
Rick
Oh, we right-wingers can’t get too worried about a single-district “tantrum” by presumable angry, presumably white males.
Considering the GOP has won the mayorality of NYC–registration-wise, much more the mirror image of this OH district than Beserkley–my gloat is full-on.
There’s no crying in politics…except by Sens. Voinovich (R-OH) and Boxer (D-NK)
Cordially…
mac Buckets
There are so many anomalies in the OH-2 race that pretending this was just like a November race is silly. This was the Dem’s one shot at this district, and they couldn’t pull it off. My prediction is that the Republican (it won’t be Schmidt) will win that seat next NORMAL election with at least 63%.
W.B. Reeves
I’m reminded of line from the movie “Plenty”. It’s spoken by a member of the British Foreign Office at the time of the Suez crisis. “As real power slips away, appearance is all.”