If you’ve been sleeping, the wake-up story is that two Democrats won in Wisconsin, one shy of the three needed to flip the Senate, and the Wisconsin Democratic Party has dropped its accusations of election tampering.
Nate Silver thinks that the results show a toss-up for a Walker recall. Next week, two Democrats are up for recall — does anyone know if those races are close?
Apparently the next question is whether Sen Dale Schultz, who voted with Democrats on the labor bill, will play the Ben Nelson role.
Freddie deBoer
Incidentally, the kind of talk of liberal grass roots organization– this is exactly what I think is the best expression of that. They won two. Didn’t win them all. But it’s positive change, real change, from the grass roots.
The Other Bob
If Obama did more they would have swept all six.
cleek
@The Other Bob:
six?
hell, if Obama really put his weight into it, they could’ve won all six, flipped five others and caused Scott Walker to turn into an earthworm.
alas.
UofAZGrad
A disappointment for sure but getting two was a truly difficult achievement. All six of these repugs got elected during the dem waive of 2008 and of course the Koch money and ground game was against us. One would hope this would give Walker and fellow wingnuts pause but nothing seems to convince those guys their agenda is unpopular (losing in ’06 and ’08 didn’t do the trick).
Last night was a productive failure, two less seats we have to pick up in 2012 (assuming all goes well next Tuesday). Then we can gear up for the real battle: recall Walker!
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@UofAZGrad: productive failure
Wow, that has a nice ring to it.
Baud
@The Other Bob: You’re kidding (I hope), but I think this is a good example of what the “base” or the “grass roots” should be about – getting the job done on the ground – one step at a time if necessary – rather than sulking about how Washington politicians or the media aren’t providing enough support.
Ivan Ivanovich Renko
@cleek: and BAM! just like that, my snarkometer pegs into megasnicker range.
Nicely done, sir.
Freddie deBoer
@Baud: Both are important. Grassroots organization derives enthusiasm, legitimacy, and practical support from leadership. The most important thing is the actual organizing on the ground, for sure. But it’s also important for Democrats and liberals at the top to demonstrate support for that organization and to help build a national movement that takes pride in liberal principles and liberal action. I think that will move the country in a direction that makes politics easier, even for moderate Democrats, by opening up space for everyone.
Omnes Omnibus
@UofAZGrad: I don’t really see the failure aspect of it. No one should have had any expectations that all six of of the recalled Senators would lose. I think that there were hopes for three because it would have flipped the Senate, but that realistic expectations of success were for two.
someguy
Great, so we’re just going to let the Republicans steal Waukesha County again and not say anything about it? Pussies.
Omnes Omnibus
@someguy: Are you serious? You can’t be.
Baud
@Freddie deBoer: I agree that the way you portray it is ideally how it should work, and if Democrats could find that synergy, we would all be in a much better place politically in this country. Unfortunately, what happens too often is that one side thinks (rightly or wrongly) that the other side is not pulling their weight, and that feeling becomes an excuse for political lassitude and cynicism.
The Worst Person In the World
Why? This article doesn’t say, and neither does the spokesman.
Freddie deBoer
@Baud: That’s a fair point.
Matt McIrvin
Democrats managed to win two recall elections against Republican incumbents; the big headlines are “Democrats Fall Short”, “Democrats Fail to Take Senate”, “Republicans Hold On”.
Omnes Omnibus
@The Worst Person In the World: My guess is that the ultimate vote totals in that section of Waukesha County were not out of line with traditional voting patterns in the area. Also, I think the vote difference between the candidates was large enough in the end that irregularities around the edges would not have flipped the result.
iriedc
We won two! I’m excited about what this can mean for 2012 especially since a Dem also won in NH. We won’t get the wave of 2008 but we can take back the House and have a 2nd term for President Obama. We might not hold down the Senate but we can get a number that will be a strong minority.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
If Sen Schultz is smart, he will stay a Republican and vote with the Dems. He’ll remain popular with the Dems that way. If he converts to a Blue Dog, the Dems will immediately start to hate him.
lojasmo
Even if we flipped all six, walker would have vetoed every bit of good legislation, and nothing could be done about it.
The upcoming two democratic recalls will not turn.
hmmm
All six of the districts were pretty red (the R incumbents had all won during the D 2008 wave). IIRC, the state party specifically wanted O and Washington to refrain from actively stumping these races and to keep it local.
Danny
Imho dems should absolutely aim for more recalls in 2012. If nothing else it puts pressure on republicans in vulnerable districts to defect and vote against Walker.
Omnes Omnibus
@Danny: You suggest working on recalls in 2012 rather than the general election? There are only so many volunteers and only so much money to go around.
arguingwithsignposts
@Omnes Omnibus: OO, do you suggest *not* working to recall Walker in 2012?
Omnes Omnibus
@arguingwithsignposts: Walker, yes. Other senators (and I took that to be Danny’s point), no.
ETA: I would also look carefully at the poll numbers before trying to recall Walker. In his case, I would not go for it unless it is a real possibility and then I would go all out. With Walker, as opposed to yesterday’s recalls, it is a case of “If you strike at the king, you must kill him.”
arguingwithsignposts
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, I agree there. Walker is the real big state-wide test of how much of a change there is in the public. And he’s going to give them a lot more to talk about between now and then, I hate to say.
Danny
@Omnes Omnibus:
Good point.
Ronnie P
Not to be negative, but there’s a huge difference between flipping two and flipping three. And who’s to say some Dems won’t be vulnerable to recalls in the future, and we’ll be on the defensive? Given the money situation in the US, I don’t think the normalization of recalls will help Democrats.
nastybrutishntall
The NYT is fluffing the GOP over the results. So I guess America doesn’t know that the GOP lost two seats. They only know we didn’t win a majority, and so *we lost*. Pttthppppt.
Comrade Carter
No. neither of the Democrats is supposed to lose.
Not close or anything like it.
gwangung
If we are going to the civil rights movement as a touchstone (and I’ve seen many people use it as such in many different arguments in many different threads), it has ALWAYS been a movement of three steps ahead, two steps back, one to the side, two steps ahead, one back, repeat and rinse. AND IT CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.
If you have no stomach for that gradual creeping progress, then I’d submit you have no stomach for real change. Take the big advances when they come, but it’s always about steady pressure to the future.
goblue72
A good running back is the one who falls forward. Last night, the grassroots/netroots fell forward. We take our inches and then line up on the scrimmage line and do it again.
piratedan
@Raven (formerly stuckinred): it’s like baseball, sure we made an out, but we moved the runners into scoring position.
Bill Murray
@piratedan: but in baseball, this is almost always a negative play in that the number of runs scored after the out is likely to be less (over the long term) than what would have been scored without the out
piratedan
@Bill Murray: ty Bill for the typical Dem response of not allowing anyone to enjoy any possible hope for taking two seats away from the Reps. Why don’t you go be a designated hitter over in the Japanese leagues, I’m sure I can get you signed to the Nippon Ham Fighters. btw all you sabr guys suck the joy out of baseball too.
tony
Electronic voting with no recount possibility.
Dems always lose in that scenario -literally.