• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This fight is for everything.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

House Speaker candidate unfamiliar with how to win non-gerrymandered election.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Second rate reporter says what?

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Republicans don’t trust women.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

I’m just a talker, trying to find a channel!

Accountability, motherfuckers.

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

DeSantis transforms Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

This blog will pay for itself.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Mobile Menu

  • Four Directions Montana
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • COVID-19 Coronavirus
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • War in Ukraine
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • 2021-22 Fundraising!

Cheryl Rofer

You are here: Home / Archives for Cheryl Rofer

Cheryl Rofer wrote at Balloon Juice from 2017-21.

Cheryl is a retired chemist who has has been particularly active with nuclear policy. Cheryl has her own blog, Nuclear Diner, and she also posts at Lawyers, Guns & Money.

Twitter: @CherylRofer

Moving On

by Cheryl Rofer|  August 2, 20217:59 am| 228 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

WordPress tells me that I have posted 820 posts, starting in April 2017, in Balloon Juice’s total of almost 70,000. That’s about 200 a year. I’ve tried to explain the science of current events and commented politically when I felt I had something to add to the general noise.

And now it’s time to move on.

I need to write and think some new things, and that means I need to be in a new space too. Many things were broken or going in the wrong direction before the pandemic, and the pandemic has uncovered more and sometimes shown us alternatives. I hope to point out where we need to go, or at least what isn’t working.

Why couldn’t I do that at Balloon Juice? I’ve felt like I’m in a rut and need new virtual surroundings. Lawyers, Guns & Money feels congenial.

I’ll lurk here from time to time – hard to say if I’ll comment. And of course I’ll continue on Twitter – @CherylRofer.

I’ve appreciated the constructive feedback and having a place to try out ideas. Many thanks to John in particular.

Moving OnPost + Comments (228)

If NATO Hadn’t Expanded

by Cheryl Rofer|  July 31, 202112:10 pm| 59 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

A Swedish fighter-bomber that never was. Source

There’s an ongoing argument about NATO expansion after the fall of the Soviet Union. Within the western political science community, there have been a number of sub-arguments, including whether Russia was promised that NATO would not expand. That has more or less been settled: Although some statements were made to that effect, they were not official commitments.

More broadly, arguments about NATO expansion tend to assume that if NATO hadn’t expanded, Europe would look about the same as it does now, but Russia would be less aggressive, and more accommodations would be possible.

Having co-chaired a NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Estonia and spent some time working with Estonians on a major environmental cleanup, I’ve recognized that there were many paths that could have been taken by the many actors involved, which could lead to quite different outcomes.

Would the newly independent countries trust Mother Russia? Could Mother Russia keep her hands off them? It would not be a single big decision, but a series of small ones.

At the Duck of Minerva, I’ve written a counterfactual in which NATO doesn’t expand. I’ve based it on events that have actually happened, although in different historical order. The outcome is different than has been assumed. It was fun to write and I think will be enjoyable to read.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

If NATO Hadn’t ExpandedPost + Comments (59)

Trump Buddy Tom Barrack Indicted As Foreign Agent

by Cheryl Rofer|  July 20, 20215:45 pm| 137 Comments

This post is in: Rofer on International Relations, Trump Crime Cartel

Tom Barrack was the chair of Donald Trump’s inaugural committee. He had been a Trump confidant and financial backer for some time, and thus not surprising he would get a job like that. Today he was arrested for acting as an agent of the United Arab Emirates and trying to influence the President in their favor.

From the Department of Justice press release:

According to court documents, between April and November 2016, Barrack served as an informal advisor to the campaign of the candidate in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Between November 2016 and January 2017, Barrack served as Chairman of the Presidential Inaugural Committee. Beginning in January 2017, Barrack informally advised senior U.S. government officials on issues related to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Barrack also sought appointment to a senior role in the U.S. government, including the role of Special Envoy to the Middle East. Barrack served as the Executive Chairman of a global investment management firm headquartered in Los Angeles, and Grimes was employed at the firm and reported directly to Barrack. During the relevant time period, Alshahhi worked as an agent of the UAE and was in frequent contact with Barrack and Grimes, including numerous in-person meetings in the United States and the UAE.

As alleged in the indictment, the defendants used Barrack’s status as a senior outside advisor to the campaign and, subsequently, to senior U.S. government officials, to advance the interests of and provide intelligence to the UAE while simultaneously failing to notify the Attorney General that their actions were taken at the direction of senior UAE officials. Barrack – directly and through Alshahhi and Grimes – was regularly and repeatedly in contact with the senior leadership of the UAE government. On multiple occasions, Barrack referred to Alshahhi as the UAE’s “secret weapon” to advance its foreign policy agenda in the United States.

Alshahhi and Grimes were also indicted. Grimes was also arrested, and Alshahhi remains at large. Barrack also made a big mistake:

On June 20, 2019, Barrack voluntarily met with FBI special agents. During the interview, Barrack allegedly made numerous false statements, including falsely denying that Alshahhi had ever requested that he take any actions on behalf of the UAE.

Barrack’s company, Colony Northstar, laid out plans to influence the government in a document. They expected to make a lot of money.

Back when Barrack was trying to influence Trump in favor of the UAE before and after the 2016 election, a lot was going on. Mike Flynn was working for Turkey and trying to set up something with Russia. Flynn was also working with Barrack on other deals. We are likely to see more come out about that as Barrack’s prosecution proceeds.

Trump 2016 Rap Sheet.
– Campaign Chairman (Manafort)
– Campaign CEO (Bannon)
– National Security Advisor (Flynn)
– Deputy Campaign Manager (Gates)
– Lawyer (Cohen)
– Fixer (Stone)
– Finance Chair (Barrack)

Unprecedented https://t.co/Z8nfWVtBT7

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) July 20, 2021

This is a big deal.

Coverage:

Daily Beast

CNN

CNBC

NPR

New York Times

Washington Post

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

Trump Buddy Tom Barrack Indicted As Foreign AgentPost + Comments (137)

President Biden On The Economy

by Cheryl Rofer|  July 19, 202111:45 am| 162 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads

Right NOW!

President Biden On The EconomyPost + Comments (162)

The Pandemic Will End

by Cheryl Rofer|  July 17, 20214:52 pm| 91 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus

Sometimes I think the pandemic will never end, but I remind myself that it will.

Numbers are headed up again in the US and skyrocketing in other countries. A Yankee – Red Sox game was postponed because of 19 positive tests within the Yankee organization. One wonders what the vaccination status is of the Yankee organization.

This is how the pandemic will end.

People who are not vaccinated will become sick and die. Those who recover will be immune to the disease. Either way, they will be removed from the susceptible pool. People are being vaccinated every day. They are removed from the susceptible pool after the appropriate number of shots and waiting period. The numbers of the susceptible decrease every day.

The alarmist takes that immunity will wear off and that variants will get around immunity are wildly overblown. I have seen no evidence for either of those and good arguments that our multiple-barrier immune systems react well to the vaccines and infection, except for small numbers of people with weakened immune systems. Every day that passes argues that immunity is not wearing off. If we eventually find a decrease, we can deal with it from a base of immunized people.

As the numbers of susceptible people decrease, we can concentrate attention and vaccines on hot spots or boosters if we learn that they are necessary. At some point, we will even quench the hot spots.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s not clear when we’ll get there. My estimate is that it will be five years before the world is back to something close to pre-pandemic normal. It will be uneven for different places, as the pandemic has been all along.

We recently passed four million recorded deaths from COVID across the world. The total is undoubtedly higher and will go higher still.

We must speed up vaccinating people. The longer the pandemic goes, the higher will be the death count. And pretending we are back to normal now delays the end.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

The Pandemic Will EndPost + Comments (91)

Caution On The Guardian Scoop

by Cheryl Rofer|  July 15, 20216:02 pm| 124 Comments

This post is in: Information Warfare, Russia

The Guardian today has a document that may be from the uppermost reaches of the Russian government and purports to describe a meeting of Vladimir Putin’s security council in closed session.

The meeting was on January 22, 2016, and in it, Putin gave instructions to his spy agencies to support Donald Trump’s run for the presidency of the US.

Caution is due to these claims. The Guardian article itself is cautious, although it notes that Guardian reporters have validated the document to a limited degree. A meeting of the security council took place on that day. Experts have looked at the document and find it not obviously fraudulent.

There is a brief psychological assessment of Trump, who is described as an “impulsive, mentally unstable and unbalanced individual who suffers from an inferiority complex”.

There is also apparent confirmation that the Kremlin possesses kompromat, or potentially compromising material, on the future president, collected – the document says – from Trump’s earlier “non-official visits to Russian Federation territory”.

The paper refers to “certain events” that happened during Trump’s trips to Moscow. Security council members are invited to find details in appendix five, at paragraph five, the document states. It is unclear what the appendix contains.

“It is acutely necessary to use all possible force to facilitate his [Trump’s] election to the post of US president,” the paper says.

This document fits quite snugly into a narrative about Russian interference in the 2016 election. That could mean that, whether or not the material in it is true, it is part of a Russian disinformation operation.

Others on Twitter are urging caution.

Curious how many other media outlets got the Kremlin “leaked” document and decided not to publish stories about it before Guardian decided to publish

— Kim Zetter (@KimZetter) July 15, 2021

This whole thread. But, yeah, a lot very good reasons to think this is an elaborate forgery. More could come out that changes that, but it's imo a much better working assumption than it being real. https://t.co/PufVIRt6mr

— Pwn All The Things (@pwnallthethings) July 15, 2021

Agree w/ @RidT on this Guardian reporting on Russian plans for the former President. This is far too convenient & reeks of #disinfo operation. It could all be individually or collectively true and at the same time planted & fake. So in the meantime, I’m taking this approach: https://t.co/0ZMSUfeJ9I pic.twitter.com/9vNSASnEB9

— Chris Krebs (@C_C_Krebs) July 15, 2021

What is the most preferable and scientific way to distinguish between fake and authentic text? Language. @guardian has posted small extract from the Kremlin document presumed to be authentic. I have counted 4 linguistic errors and a couple of dubious instances of word usage. /1 https://t.co/Z5vWrjErww pic.twitter.com/S5QVMG4ovz

— Иван Ткачев (@IvanTkachev1) July 15, 2021

That last thread doesn’t necessarily prove it’s a forgery. People mess up their writing in all languages.

There’s nothing definitive about the authenticity of the documents or whether they’re fakes. The Guardian might make more information available about how they got them, which could point to disinformation motives.

I suspect this one never will be fully clear by itself. It will be another case of people believing what they want to.

Caution On The Guardian ScoopPost + Comments (124)

Sharing Vaccine

by Cheryl Rofer|  July 9, 202110:59 am| 187 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, COVID-19 Coronavirus, Open Threads

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman is the person to follow on Twitter if you want to know where the United States is sending vaccine.

To defeat COVID-19 at home and abroad, the United States is donating vaccine doses to countries around the world. As part of our efforts, today 3 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine were delivered to our friends, the Brazilian people. pic.twitter.com/vSer2GREOu

— Wendy R. Sherman (@DeputySecState) June 25, 2021

Exciting news: 2 million Pfizer vaccine doses touched down today in Peru, donated by the United States. As we continue to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, @POTUS has promised we will provide lifesaving vaccines to people around the world. pic.twitter.com/rKvv0MPIWH

— Wendy R. Sherman (@DeputySecState) June 30, 2021

The U.S. donated 2.5 million Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses to Colombia today as part of our commitment to work with our partners across the Western Hemisphere to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We're proud to provide these safe, effective vaccines to the people of Colombia. pic.twitter.com/6KGhhE4n6K

— Wendy R. Sherman (@DeputySecState) July 1, 2021

Today's donation of one million Pfizer vaccine doses is the latest in our effort to help the people of Ecuador recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. is sharing vaccines with the world because it is the right thing to do. pic.twitter.com/rM413Tlgde

— Wendy R. Sherman (@DeputySecState) July 2, 2021

Today we delivered 2.5 million doses of Moderna vaccines to Pakistan, another step towards helping the world beat COVID-19. pic.twitter.com/wZRq8RBBDz

— Wendy R. Sherman (@DeputySecState) July 2, 2021

The United States is sending one million doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine to Malaysia. As @POTUS has said, we will be the world’s arsenal of vaccines in our shared fight against this virus. pic.twitter.com/COYwpOwxEZ

— Wendy R. Sherman (@DeputySecState) July 5, 2021

Being a good neighbor means lending a helping hand in times of need. Today, the U.S. is continuing to do just that by donating 1.5 million doses of Moderna vaccine to Guatemala. https://t.co/x5XRSG2VHQ

— Wendy R. Sherman (@DeputySecState) July 9, 2021

The United States is working to get safe and effective vaccine doses to as many people around the world as quickly as possible, including to our friends in Uruguay. Yesterday, we sent half a million Pfizer vaccine doses to Uruguay to strengthen their COVID-19 vaccination program. pic.twitter.com/OHK9O8U1Wj

— Wendy R. Sherman (@DeputySecState) July 9, 2021

Secretary of State Antony Blinken also tweets about sending vaccines out, as you can see above, but it seems to be mostly Deputy Secretary Sherman’s job.

As part of U.S. commitment to help lead the global fight against COVID-19, we are delivering 3.3 M doses of J&J vaccines to Afghanistan. We are committed to continuing support for Afghanistan, including promoting the security and health of the Afghan people. #EnduringPartnership pic.twitter.com/dW0Ncty8KW

— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) July 9, 2021

Open thread!

Sharing VaccinePost + Comments (187)

  • Go to page 1
  • Go to page 2
  • Go to page 3
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Go to page 118
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Order 2024 Calendars

Final Preview of 2022 Pets of Balloon Juice: Calendar B! 1

2024 Pet Calendars Spreadsheets

2024 Pet Calendar A (Nyms A-K)
2024 Pet Calendar A (Nyms L-Z)
2024 Pet Calendar B (Nyms A-K)
2024 Pet Calendar B (Nyms L-Z)

Recent Comments

  • way2blue on War for Ukraine Day 653: We Need To Clarify a Few Things (Dec 9, 2023 @ 12:23am)
  • mrmoshpotato on Friday Evening Open Thread: ‘We Deserve Better’ (Than Dean Phillips) (Dec 9, 2023 @ 12:20am)
  • Frankensteinbeck on Friday Evening Open Thread: ‘We Deserve Better’ (Than Dean Phillips) (Dec 9, 2023 @ 12:12am)
  • Alison Rose on War for Ukraine Day 653: We Need To Clarify a Few Things (Dec 8, 2023 @ 11:58pm)
  • Jay on War for Ukraine Day 653: We Need To Clarify a Few Things (Dec 8, 2023 @ 11:56pm)

🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

Balloon Juice Posts

View by Topic
View by Author
View by Month & Year
View by Past Author

Balloon Juice Meetups!

All Meetups
Talk of Meetups – Meetup Planning

Fundraising 2023-24

Wis*Dems Supreme Court + SD-8
Virginia House Races
Four Directions: Montana

Featuring

Medium Cool
Artists in Our Midst
Authors in Our Midst
We All Need A Little Kindness
What Has Biden Done for You Lately?

Calling All Jackals

Site Feedback
Nominate a Rotating Tag
Submit Photos to On the Road
Balloon Juice Mailing List Signup
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Links)
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Posts)

Balloon Juice for Ukraine

Donate

Twitter / Spoutible

Balloon Juice (Spoutible)
WaterGirl (Spoutible)
TaMara (Spoutible)
John Cole
DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
Betty Cracker
Tom Levenson
David Anderson
Major Major Major Major
ActualCitizensUnited

Cole & Friends Learn Español

Introductory Post
Cole & Friends Learn Español

Walter’s Fund (Athenspets)

Donate

Four Directions Montana

Donate

Site Footer

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Comment Policy
  • Our Authors
  • Blogroll
  • Our Artists
  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2023 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc