Russia

War for Ukraine Day 938: Ukraine Reaches Out and Touches Something 500 KM into Russia

by Adam L Silverman| September 18, 20247:50 pm| 17 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

The Wise Will Rule the Stars

Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, is it Friday yet? I’m still recovering from the past few days, so I’m going to just run through the basics.

Third, there is a screen shot going around Facebook & X/Twitter about fear, demoralization, subversion, & reflexive control. I’ve been seeing screenshots for a few days. It’s made up. It’s supposed to invoke how KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov described this stuff. He’s controversial, but this isn’t his. I tracked it back to a long post at Quora that starts well & quickly devolves into both sides BS. I’m not going to post the link as I don’t want to amplify the garbage. For those interested in Bezmenov, here’s a good run down from the declassified archive maintained by the University of Toronto.

Ukraine’s HUR, SBU, and SSO – the Main Directorate of Intelligence, the Security Service rof Ukraine, and Ukrainian Special Operations Forces respectively – reached out and touched something very flammable 500 km into Russia early this morning. The explosions were so intense they registered as a 2.8 on the richter scale.

And this is referred to as Russia’s best protected and modernized ammo depot

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 18, 2024

Ugh, those pesky Ukrainians annihilating peaceful Russian army munition depots again and crossing the 29478383rd red line just like that.

Concerning.

Outrageous.

Unconstructive. pic.twitter.com/Hlcqbb3zLT

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 18, 2024

Many have yet to grasp the scale of this. If the fire engulfs most of the territory, it could deal a serious blow to Russia’s ammunition supply. Large quantities of propellant charges for mortars were also stored there in the past.

More additional info: https://t.co/qgIYkmOzqd

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2024

From The New Voice of Ukraine:

The warehouse in Toropka, Tver region, housed missiles for Iskander and Tochka-U systems, anti-aircraft missiles, and artillery ammunition.

After the drones struck, a powerful explosion occurred, prompting local residents to speculate on social media about the possibility of a nuclear bomb.

The blast has created a fire spanning 6 km, leading to a local evacuation.

The SBU, alongside the Defense Forces, is focused on dismantling Russia’s missile capabilities used against Ukrainian cities.

Over 100 kamikaze drones were used in the attack, which destroyed significant stockpiles of North Korean KN23 ballistic missiles, Grad missiles, S-30 air defense systems, and Iskander ballistic missiles.

The strike, carried out by Ukrainian-made drones, hit the arsenal approximately 500 km from Ukraine’s border.

Strike on an ammunition warehouse in Toropka

On the night of Sept. 18, a fire erupted in Toropets, Russia, following a UAV attack, leading to ammunition explosions. Regional Governor Ihor Rudenia ordered a partial evacuation of residents. Eyewitnesses reported extensive fires, explosions, and building damage.

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its air defense shot down 54 UAVs overnight, though it did not mention the Tver region.

The warehouse attacked in Toropets stored various missiles, including North Korean KN23s, Grad, S-300, S-400, and Iskander missiles, according to Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the NSDC.

Strike Hard!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Our Plan for Victory Is Already Fully Prepared; the Most Important Thing Now Is the Determination to Implement It – Address by the President

18 September 2024 – 20:05

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

First of all, today, I want to thank our warriors who ensure our Ukrainian long-range capability. There is a significant outcome from last night on the territory of Russia, and this is the type of action that weakens the enemy. I thank all those involved. Such inspiring precision. Our special services: the Security Service, the Defense Intelligence, the Special Operations Forces – thank you!

Today, there were two reports by the Commander-in-Chief – first, a long report on all directions of our actions. Our defense, our offensive steps. General Syrskyi reported on the changes in the situation in the Kursk region and our response to them. A strong response. Each of our units there performed admirably! We are managing the situation at our foothold within the limits of our expectations. Maximum attention is also paid to the directions in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions – our entire east. Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove. We are working on reinforcements, both in terms of weapons and personnel.

Today, I also spoke with the Minister of Finance of Ukraine and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council regarding funds for key state needs, for defense. We must provide everything Ukraine requires.

Today there was a lot of work with our team of international experts – we are preparing meetings with partners, negotiations. The priority is not only to implement everything we have already agreed upon, and which is still being hindered at the logistics stage, but also more strategic things. We have clear tasks for manning the brigades – this includes equipment and training. All the promises made at the Washington Summit regarding air defense have not yet been fully realized. And it is crucial to achieve more results for our air shield right now, in early fall.

And today, we can already say that our Plan for Victory is fully prepared – all points, all key emphases, the necessary appendices with details to the Plan have been identified. Everything has been worked out. The most important thing now is the determination to implement it.

There is, and can be, no alternative to peace, no freezing of the war, or any other manipulations that will simply shift Russian aggression to another stage. We need reliable and long-term security for Ukraine, and, therefore, for all of Europe.

This is what we are working for.

I thank everyone who helps! Glory to all our warriors, glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Yevhen Lemeshenko “Pechenih”, 29, a commander of the Special Operations Forces unit and a member of @plast, fell in action. May he rest in glory. pic.twitter.com/YDe6y1jCtE

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) September 18, 2024

⚡️None of Ukraine’s plans to end the war envisages ceasefire, ceding territory, Podolyak says.

“(Freezing of the conflict) will not lead to the end of the war but will only lead to Russia gaining the opportunity to accumulate additional resources and proceed to the third stage…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 17, 2024

⚡️None of Ukraine’s plans to end the war envisages ceasefire, ceding territory, Podolyak says.

“(Freezing of the conflict) will not lead to the end of the war but will only lead to Russia gaining the opportunity to accumulate additional resources and proceed to the third stage (of the war) with more mass killings of civilians in Ukraine,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Presidential Office, said on Sept. 17.

https://kyivindependent.com/none-of-ukraines-plans-to-end-the-war-envisages-ceasefire-ceding-territory-podolyak-says/

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

None of the plans Ukraine is developing to end Russia’s war envisages a ceasefire or ceding territory to Moscow, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Presidential Office, told Current Time on Sept. 17.

Podolyak’s statement echoed a recent comment of Dmytro Lytvyn, an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky, who dismissed Bild’s article saying that Kyiv was allegedly ready to freeze the conflict as part of its “Victory Plan” as “fake.”

“(Freezing of the conflict) will not lead to the end of the war but will only lead to Russia gaining the opportunity to accumulate additional resources and proceed to the third stage (of the war) with more mass killings of civilians in Ukraine,” Podolyak said.

“There are no concepts of ceding territories, there are no concepts of freezing the conflict,” he added.

Kyiv has repeatedly rejected any ceasefire or temporary break in hostilities, saying it would only provide a window of opportunity for Russia to regroup its forces.

Last month, Zelensky said that Ukraine’s operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast were part of his “Victory Plan.”

The other aspects of the plan include Ukraine’s participation in the global security infrastructure, pressuring Russia to end the war through diplomatic means, and an economic aspect, Zelensky said without revealing further details.

According to Zelensky, the plan is over 90% complete, and Kyiv is preparing to present it to allies next week.

Ukraine is preparing for a second peace summit, following its first global peace summit in Switzerland in June where Russia was not invited. Kyiv has said it aims to invite a Russian representative to the second conference.

Today, @verkhovna_rada made a crucial decision for the country—to increase defense spending in 2024 by UAH 495.3 billion.

UAH 274.4 billion will go to the allowance for our defenders and their families. Another UAH 76.2 billion will be spent on weapons and equipment, which will…

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2024

Today, @verkhovna_rada made a crucial decision for the country—to increase defense spending in 2024 by UAH 495.3 billion.

UAH 274.4 billion will go to the allowance for our defenders and their families. Another UAH 76.2 billion will be spent on weapons and equipment, which will help modernize the army and increase its combat capability.

I thank the parliamentarians for their important decision. We continue to do everything possible to ensure that our military has everything they need—Minister @rustem_umerov

We have an update on the Ukrainian F-16s:

“Despite doubts that Ukraine would be able to maintain the [F-16] jets, Hecker said Ukrainian maintainers are succeeding. ‘We’ve trained a lot of Ukrainian maintainers, and from all accounts, when I talk to the instructors that are training them, they catch on very quickly,’… pic.twitter.com/BUTSXBuIwt

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 18, 2024

“Despite doubts that Ukraine would be able to maintain the [F-16] jets, Hecker said Ukrainian maintainers are succeeding. ‘We’ve trained a lot of Ukrainian maintainers, and from all accounts, when I talk to the instructors that are training them, they catch on very quickly,’ Hecker said. “I know they’re flying. That’s good news.’

Meanwhile, Ukrainian F-16s are likely to be employed mainly in an air defense role as its air force develops the skills and understanding to leverage all its capabilities.”
https://airandspaceforces.com/ukraine-cautious-approach-f-16-air-forces-europe-boss/

From Air & Space Forces Magazine, which should help answer a question someone asked either last night or the night before in the comments.

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md.—Ukraine is taking a cautious approach toward employing its new F-16s, the top U.S. Air Force officer in Europe said Sept. 17.

“The pilots are new to it, so they’re not going to put them at the riskiest missions,” Gen. James B. Hecker, the head of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and NATO Allied Air Command, told reporters Sept. 17 at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber conference. “Ultimately, that’s a Ukrainian decision. But I think that’s the approach that they’re taking.”

Ukraine first began flying the F-16 in August, and the aircraft has already proved successful in shooting down Russian cruise missiles and drones. But in one missile and drone barrage, a Ukrainian F-16 crashed, killing its pilot. Ukraine is investigating the incident.

Ukraine’s Air Force commander was fired soon after. Hecker said the U.S. has offered its assistance, but the U.S. had yet to “see if they take us up on that offer.”

The U.S. has not only trained Ukrainian pilots and maintainers but is also trying to boost the status of the country’s air force within the Ukrainian military.

“In a lot of the former Soviet Union countries, the army was kind of the service, and everybody else was below that and maybe didn’t get a voice at the table,” Hecker said. “So I have been asking that the Air Force get positions on the General Staff.”

The goal, which Hecker said is backed by U.S. Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command and the NATO Supreme Allied Commander, is to enable Ukraine’s air force to do more joint operations with the country’s ground forces.

Despite doubts that Ukraine would be able to maintain the jets, Hecker said Ukrainian maintainers are succeeding. “We’ve trained a lot of Ukrainian maintainers, and from all accounts, when I talk to the instructors that are training them, they catch on very quickly,” Hecker said. “I know they’re flying. That’s good news.”

The Biden administration has shelved a proposal to hire American civilian contractors to help maintain the aircraft, hoping instead that contractors from European nations will assume some of that responsibility.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian F-16s are likely to be employed mainly in an air defense role as its air force develops the skills and understanding to leverage all its capabilities.

To date in the war, Ukraine has shot down more than 100 Russian aircraft, Hecker said, and Russia has shot down at least 75 Ukrainian aircraft. That’s kept both sides from fully employing its fighters for fear of losing them.

“What we see is the aircraft are kind of staying on their own side of the line, if you will,” Hecker said.

“What none of us probably forecasted is that nobody would get air superiority, neither Ukraine or Russia,” he said. “And now it’s been two and a half years, and neither one has, and that’s because of the integrated air and missile defense systems that both of them have.”

Ukraine has been promised at least 80 F-16s, with the first aircraft coming from Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway. On Sept. 17. Ukrainian President Volomyr Zelenskky said the country had a new “ambitious” strategy to “increase the number of combat aircraft in Ukraine and speed up our pilot training.”

U.S. and Denmark are leading the training, but the U.K. and others are also training pilots on Western tactics in jet aircraft. There are over a dozen countries in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s Air Force Capability Coalition, co-led by Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United States. That group is “advising Ukraine and providing training, funding, aircraft, and critical equipment” to build up a fouth-generation fighter force, according to U.S. Navy Lt. Cmdr. Javan Rasnake, a Pentagon spokesperson. After a Sept. 6 meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Canada said it would train new pilots without previous flight experience. The Ukrainian pilots training in the U.S. and Denmark have previous experience flying Soviet-era combat aircraft.

“We can’t train them fast enough,” Hecker said. “The good news is we have a coalition that is helping with the training.”

More at the link.

Various EU member states and members of the EU parliament:

Exclu: Dozens of Euro lawmakers took the unusual step of sending a letter directly to Biden urging him to lift restrictions Ukraine’s use of Western weapons

Stark signal from Europe showing just how desperate they are to get the US to green light this https://t.co/Z6Wj5kt9sL pic.twitter.com/q79ISjOZAB

— Robbie Gramer (@RobbieGramer) September 17, 2024

From Politico:

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — EUROPEANS’ WRITING CAMPAIGN: European lawmakers are pushing President JOE BIDEN and other U.S. allies to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of donated weapons against targets in Russian territory.

In a letter to Biden and shared first with NatSec Daily, European parliamentarians, including former Lithuanian Prime Minister ANDRIUS KUBILIUS, called on Biden to lift restrictions on U.S.-provided weapons as a show of alignment with European partners.

“As leaders of Europe, we cannot stand by while this war rages on, with innocent lives lost daily,” they wrote. “Time and again, we have seen that only firm and decisive action can push back Russian forces and bring this conflict closer to an end. In moments of crisis, the United States has always stood with Europe, and we ask for that same solidarity now.”

The letter comes as Ukraine eagerly awaits a long-sought lift on some restrictions following a meeting between Biden and U.K. Prime Minister KEIR STARMER last week.

Speaking of the SSO:

Glory to brave Ukrainian defenders 🇺🇦

📹: Alpha Group pic.twitter.com/j4AgVQdsEh

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2024

For you Gepard SPAAG enthusiasts:

Shahed kamikaze drone shot down by Gepard SPAAG https://t.co/KI44zNx9OX pic.twitter.com/YLxJflBGjK

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2024

A bit more on the Toropets strike:

More @Maxar 📸 satellite images showing the aftermath of this morning’s Ukrainian drone attack on an ammunition depot in Toropets, Russia, that triggered massive explosions.
1. rail line in ammo storage area before, Sept 7
2. rail line area after, Sept 18
3. Infrared, Sept 18 pic.twitter.com/5dvgAqCMBB

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 18, 2024

Defmon estimates 50-75%, which differs from my calculations. Our main debate centers on whether the fire atop the bunkers originates from outside or inside. If the fire is indeed internal, a 50% damage estimate could be entirely realistic.https://t.co/p0850HPKUn

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2024

Just to be clear, when I talk about the bunkers, I’m talking about the area I marked here. And I think the rest of the storage area is gonna be even worse for the Russians. pic.twitter.com/J6nhtbscr5

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 18, 2024

/7. Looks like Toropets ammunition depot was also targeted by something with a jet engine. https://t.co/op3AsuT4q7 pic.twitter.com/JnUsmXS2U6

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2024

Russian ammo storage in Toropets, Tver oblast self-destructed way before Ukraine was even allowed to strike it pic.twitter.com/7HMYteYqCQ

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 18, 2024

First outing for the Palianytsia, Ukraine’s domestically produced cruise missile? If so, it has already proved… effective! https://t.co/ATpGtQbrnj

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 18, 2024

BREAKING: Reports indicate that Jake Sullivan has already denied Ukraine’s request to strike targets inside russia with long range beepers. pic.twitter.com/PFOfpC7h6u

— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) September 17, 2024

It’s funny because it’s true.

Somebody hacked the website of the municipal administration of Toropets, Tver region, where the ammunition site exploded last night. Looks like Budanov (GUR head) sends his regards. pic.twitter.com/lG4pIvbD7c

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) September 18, 2024

I’ll just leave this here:

pic.twitter.com/DpQmTlqJw4

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2024

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv is enduring a russian missile barrage tonight! Innocent lives are once again in danger!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 18, 2024

Multiple explosions are shaking Kharkiv tonight as russian missile strikes hit the city!!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 18, 2024

So far, russia struck Kharkiv with 3 missiles in 20 minutes. As always, unexpected. And we still don’t know if it’s over.
So, I’m just sitting on the floor in the bathroom and hoping.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 18, 2024

We are almost 3 years into full-scale war, and Kharkiv is still defenseless before the russian missile terror. #LetUkraineStrikeBack

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 18, 2024

One russian ‘turtle’ tank and one IFV attacked Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv region. Our warriors repelled an assault and destroyed both vehicles.

📹: 3rd Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/TFuS6MojRX

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2024

Mariupol:

/2. Location of the ammunition depot in Hlyboke, near Mariupolhttps://t.co/RGDZttjyNg pic.twitter.com/Aq3DoBFmSt

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 17, 2024

Here’s the full text of the first tweet:

Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report about the destruction of the Russian warehouses with ammunition near Mariupol as a result of a missile attack. Which means Neptune missile was most likely used.

Local residents of Mariupol reported about the sounds of detonating ammunition on 13th of September.

Now footages of destroyed Russian ammunition depot in Hlyboke, near Mariupol, were published.

https://facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/pfbid02jwCVomSbZNLLVUAKRfzTZjZjmTRt3BZo5bE5oL1x6tDmmyoxf7eEwajzkypLfD1Nl

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Є дні, коли здається, що світ функціонує сам собою. Люди йдуть на роботу, діти граються на подвір’ї, гуляють песики… Але є ті, для кого кожен день — черговий виклик. Це рятувальники. Їхня робота виглядає, як сцена з фільму: гучні сирени, вогонь, вода, руїни, дим. Вони біжать туди, куди інші не наважуються навіть глянути. Рятувальники обирають цей шлях не через хоробрість, а через глибоке розуміння того, що їхня присутність може змінити все. Вони не просто гасять вогонь або дістають людей з-під завалів, а повертають комусь надію, дарують другий шанс, часто ціною власного спокою. Рятувальники знають: за дверима може чекати що завгодно. Але зупинитися — не їхній вибір. Вони завжди йдуть вперед, навіть якщо страх намагається спинити їхні кроки. І це — справжній героїзм. Героїзм, який полягає не у відсутності страху, а у здатності його долати заради інших. І хоча ззовні здаються непохитними, їм теж буває страшно. Дуже страшно. Адже кожен новий виклик — це невідомість. Не знають, що побачать, коли увійдуть у темний підвал, не знають, кого знайдуть під уламками. І цей страх — не через небезпеку для себе, ні. Вони бояться не встигнути. Не побачити того, кого могли б врятувати. Рятувальники йдуть туди, куди ніхто не хоче, тому що знають: там є хтось, хто потребує їх. Їхня робота — це не сцени з фільмів, де все закінчується обіймами і сміхом. Після виклику вони часто повертаються у тишу. У свій дім, де не чути сирен, де немає плачів чи криків. Пам’ятають кожного, кого не вдалось спасти. Хоч і не показують, та їхній світ теж розбивається. Але на наступний день знову вдягають свою форму і йдуть туди, де потрібні. Бо знають: якщо не вони, то хто? Коли ви бачите їх у новинах, вони часто мовчазні. Мовчать про свої перемоги та втрати. Бо роблять свою справу не заради слави. Їм важливо лише одне: засинати з думкою, що, можливо, комусь вони подарували ще один шанс. І цей шанс — найбільша винагорода для них. Я вітаю своїх колег та дякую їм за нелегку працю. З усіма особисто не знайомий, але кожного ціную і люблю ❤️ А вам усім залишаю хоробрий ДСНС-ний лизь 👅 Відео і фото: inst @dsns_ukraine #дснс #дснсукраїни

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

There are days when the world seems to function by itself. People go to work, children play in the yard, dogs walk… But there are those for whom every day is another challenge. These are rescuers. Their work looks like a scene from a movie: loud sirens, fire, water, ruins, smoke. They run where others dare not even look. Rescuers choose this path not because of bravery, but because of a deep understanding that their presence can change everything. They don’t just put out fires or get people out from under the rubble, they restore someone’s hope, give them a second chance, often at the cost of their own peace of mind. Rescuers know that anything can be waiting outside the door. But stopping is not their choice. They always go forward, even if fear tries to stop their steps. And this is true heroism. Heroism, which consists not in the absence of fear, but in the ability to overcome it for the sake of others. And although they seem unshakable from the outside, they are also afraid. Very scary. After all, every new challenge is an unknown. They do not know what they will see when they enter the dark basement, they do not know who they will find under the rubble. And this fear is not because of danger to oneself, no. They are afraid of not having time. Not to see the one who could be saved. Rescuers go where no one wants to go, because they know there is someone there who needs them. Their work is not a movie scene where everything ends with hugs and laughter. After being called, they often return to silence. To your home, where you don’t hear sirens, where there are no cries or screams. Everyone who could not be saved is remembered. Although they don’t show it, their world is also falling apart. But the next day they put on their uniform again and go where they are needed. Because they know: if not them, then who? When you see them on the news, they are often silent. They are silent about their victories and losses. Because they do their work not for fame. Only one thing is important to them: to fall asleep with the thought that maybe they gave someone another chance. And this chance is the greatest reward for them. I congratulate my colleagues and thank them for their hard work. I don’t know all of them personally, but I appreciate and love everyone ❤️ And I leave you all a brave DSNS lick 👅 Video and photo: inst @dsns_ukraine #дснс #дснсукраины

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 938: Ukraine Reaches Out and Touches Something 500 KM into RussiaPost + Comments (17)

War for Ukraine Day 937: Ukraine Is Not Getting Authorization to Use Long Range Weapons Any Time Soon

by Adam L Silverman| September 17, 20248:53 pm| 17 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, how is it only Tuesday? It was another very, very, very long day here. Nothing bad, just very long. So I’m going to just run through the basics.

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has announced that Britain will not go it alone in providing Ukraine authorization to use long range weapons against Russian targets in Russia.

It’s like watching a bully beat someone to death while the crowd stands by holding bats, but no one steps in. No one hands over a bat because the bully warns, ‘Help them, and you’re next.’ pic.twitter.com/BpVlWOeov3

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2024

From The Times of London:

Britain will not allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets in Russia without the agreement of the United States.

President Zelensky pleaded for the UK and US to overcome their “fear” and show “decisiveness” over the issue.

Five former defence secretaries and an ex-prime minister have urged Sir Keir Starmer to go ahead unilaterally. They have warned that delays will only serve to embolden President Putin.

However, The Times has been told that the UK will not “go it alone” because US guidance systems were seen as crucial to ensuring the missiles hit their targets.

The government believes the US is still likely to give the green light at the UN general assembly in New York, although there are splits within President Biden’s administration.

David Lammy, the foreign secretary, told Laura Kuenssberg on BBC1 that there needed to be a “shared strategy” among western allies.

He said: “It’s important that as allies supporting Ukraine, we have a shared strategy to win going forward. Now we’ve been discussing this with the United States and with other key allies, but of course, we head to the UN general assembly, where we will all meet with Zelensky in just under 12 days’ time.”

He said that “no war is won with any one weapon”, but added: “It’s important that we support the Ukrainians to continue to repel Russia in the Black Sea, it’s important that they can deal with the huge challenges in the air that are being mounted by Russia and of course that we support them — and we have — with training of their own men and women on the front line. We want to put Ukraine in the strongest position going forward.”

Zelensky said on Sunday: “The world must help us defend ourselves against Russian military aircraft and the dozens of guided aerial bombs that claim Ukrainian lives every day.

“This terror can be stopped. But to stop it, the fear of making strong, objectively necessary decisions must be overcome. Only decisiveness can bring a just end to this war. It is decisiveness that most effectively protects against terror.”

More at the link.

Here’s the results of the moral cowardice and strategic malpractice:

On a day meant to honor Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, russia attacked Kharkiv with aerial bombs, injuring four rescuers, with three in critical condition, along with three civilians. An assault on those who save lives is an assault on the values that unite us as human beings pic.twitter.com/HU14AoiP99

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 17, 2024

In Novohrodivka, northwest of Donetsk, the Russians also executed a Ukrainian Soldier with a sword to the heart. His hands were tied and the Russians tried to photoshop the ropes out of the pictures they’ve posted on social media. I’ve seen the imagery and footage, you don’t need to go looking for it.

The Kyiv Post has the details:

Editor’s note: The story has been updated with information from the Prosecutor General’s Office on the location of the alleged killing of a Ukrainian soldier.

Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Sept. 17 that he had appealed to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the United Nations in response to a photo that allegedly shows the execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW) by Russia.

On the morning of Sept. 17, a photo of an apparently executed Ukrainian soldier with a sword in his chest and the inscription “For Kursk” appeared on social media. Remnants of gray tape are visible on the soldier’s hand.

The photo appears to show a bloodied body lying on the road against the backdrop of damaged vehicles and a house with broken windows. The exact location is unclear.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the photo.

“The level of barbarism and bloodthirstiness is impossible to comprehend,” Lubinets wrote on his Telegram channel. The ombudsman stressed that such actions are a flagrant violation of the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

Later in the day, the Prosecutor General’s Office said that the alleged execution of a Ukrainian soldier took place in the town of Novohrodivka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian authorities have not yet established the time when the alleged execution took place.

The investigation is ongoing to establish the circumstances and identify the people responsible for the crime. The pre-trial investigation is conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) investigators in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office.

More at the link.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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A Good, Strong Content of the Military Package for Our Victory Plan Has Been Prepared – Address by the President

17 September 2024 – 19:26

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day. First – a meeting on the military component of our Victory Plan for Ukraine. I worked together with the military command. A good, strong content of the military package for our Victory Plan has been prepared – the very things that can significantly strengthen Ukraine in accordance with the Victory Plan.

Second – I held a meeting on our F-16 fleet. Together with the Air Force Command. There is a clear vision of the steps – how to increase the number of combat aircraft in Ukraine and speed up our pilot training. All the tasks for the Air Force of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine have been defined.

Together with the Prime Minister of Ukraine, we heard new strategies for the work of two state institutions – the Ministry for Communities and Territories Development and the Ministry of Veterans Affairs. Deputy Prime Minister Kuleba and Minister Kalmykova reported with their teams. The strategies are ambitious, but the most important thing is that people really feel the results of the work of the Ministries and the Government in general. We also had a separate discussion with Denys Shmyhal on energy and other key issues.

There were reports on the situation in Sumy and the region. After the Russian strikes on energy facilities, there are blackouts. The city of Sumy, districts of the region. Repair crews are currently working. A coordination center has been set up. I thank everyone involved in the restoration work – power engineers, regional authorities, local authorities, and all State Emergency Service employees.

And one more thing.

Today is Rescuer’s Day in Ukraine. The day of all our people who work exclusively to save the lives of others. Today I thanked the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, each and every one of those who has been helping. I also presented them with state awards. And now I want to personally thank those rescuers who have been particularly outstanding now, these very days. This is Yevhenii Khorunzhyi – a rescuer from the Kharkiv region, a Sergeant, who has been working in the SES for 5 years and is constantly involved in eliminating the consequences of Russian strikes. This is Oleksandr Ahudov – a Captain of the Civil Defense Service, who has been working in the rescue service for 13 years in the Donetsk region. Volodymyr Morozov – a Master Sergeant from the Sumy region. Last night he took part in the elimination of the consequences of the Russian strike on Konotop and has always been active in protecting people. Andrii Zhytkov – Master Sergeant, Donetsk region. He works in the most dangerous frontline areas, helps evacuate people, and rescues them after strikes. Volodymyr Piskun – Master Sergeant, Kherson region. He has been with the SES for 14 years, a truly professional person. And the sappers of the SES of Ukraine – these are Oleh Filippov, Mykola Lintsov and Oleksandr Humenchak. Very efficient guys. I thank you and all your colleagues!

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine

Minister @rustem_umerov had a weekly call with US @SecDef Lloyd Austin.
🇺🇦🇺🇸 https://t.co/E4f4L7GTeV

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

Ukrainian rescuers are risking their lives to help others.
They save human lives and mitigate the consequences of russian attacks, fires and floods.

Today, Ukraine celebrate their professional holiday. @SESU_UA, thank you for your invaluable service.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/ljdBZRyfvg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

NATO:

‼️ NATO Secretary General on long-range strikes against Russia: Biggest risk for Europe is Russian victory https://t.co/MgzSkBEEd7

— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) September 16, 2024

From Ukrainska Pravda:

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the decision to allow Ukraine to launch long-range strikes on Russian territory will depend on individual allies. He also stressed that there are always risks in war, but the biggest risk for Europe is a Russian victory in Ukraine.

Source: European Pravda citing Stoltenberg’s words in an interview with LBC

Details: The soon-to-be outgoing NATO secretary general welcomed the public debate in recent days over the possible permission for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western long-range weapons.

Quote: “It’s for the individual allies to make these decisions, but it’s important that we consult closely on these issues as we do.”

Details: Commenting on the concerns of some allies about the risk of escalation of the war in Ukraine, Stoltenberg reminded that it is about “a full-scale war in Europe launched by Moscow”.

“There are no risk-free options in the war. But I continue to believe that the biggest risk for us will be if [Russian leader] Putin wins in Ukraine,” the secretary general stressed.

Ukraine is seeking to use long-range missiles to hit Russian air bases and military targets involved in attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Background:

Earlier, Russian leader Vladimir Putin warned that allowing Kyiv to carry out long-range strikes would “mean that NATO countries, the United States and European countries are at war with Russia”.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is convinced that allies should step up support for Kyiv despite Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s threats, as he does nothing despite his words.

Remember this meme @elonmusk posted? Apparently it was created by someone named Sofiya, who worked for a Russian government agency sanctioned by the US and aimed at spreading propaganda in the West. @cxemu got access to a massive data leak and uncovered some interesting details. pic.twitter.com/1NnmPMcsWe

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 17, 2024

The original reporting is at Radio Svoboda and is not in English. Here’s a rundown in English:

Pro-Russia narratives, memes, “augmented reality and fakes registry”: how the Kremlin-hired disinformation agency works

Thread🧵

2/11 “Schemes” @MaksymSavchuk @AnnaMyroniuk gained access to thousands of leaked documents from the Russian “Social Design Agency” or “SDA”, an organization sanctioned by the EU and the US, and, according to American intelligence, supervised by the Putin Administration.

3/11 The leaked internal files of the “Social Design Agency” were obtained by the German media @SZ, @ndr and @WDR, and the Estonian news site @DelfiEE, which then shared them with a dozen European media outlets, including “Schemes.”

4/11 As part of the #FactoryofFakes project, “Schemes” gained access to the smallest details of the Russian disinformation operations planning: minutes of “SDA” meetings and reports on fake dissemination.

5/11 The obtained documents show that “SDA” uses disinformation to discredit Ukraine, its top officials and citizens, as well as the leaders of Western countries who support it while promoting the interests of Russia and European politicians who defend them.

6/11 For example, “SDA” tried to influence the June 2024 elections to the European Parliament to bring to power more representatives of right-wing forces who Russian political technologists expected to support Russia and oppose Western aid to Ukraine.

7/11 This disinformation operation included, among other things, a “comprehensive counter-campaign” against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

8/11 The company also spread numerous fakes about Ukrainians to Western audiences. One example is that Ukrainians join ISIS while seeking refuge in Europe or that Ukrainians traffick children evacuated from the country’s frontline to the EU.

9/11 The “SDA” also tried to influence the Ukrainians themselves. Russian political technologists used sensitive topics such as mobilization, battlefield casualties, restrictions on freedom of speech effective during martial law, drying up Western aid, and internal corruption.

10/11 Russian disinformation specialists from “SDA” also used President Zelenskiy’s tense relations with his predecessor Petro Poroshenko, ex-Armed Forces chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and Kyiv mayor Vitali Klychko to divide Ukrainians.

11/11 Who leads the “SDA” disinformation operations and what fakes does the company spread for the Kremlin? Read more about it in the newest investigation by “Schemes”

Темники, меми, «реєстр фейків та допреальності». Як працює агенція-підрядник Кремля із дезінформації«Агенція соціального дизайну» створює та поширює фейки для дискредитації України, її найвищого керівництва та громадян, та просуває інтереси Росії https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/skhemy-kreml-dezinformatsiya-asd-hambashydze/33121898.html

In a similar vein, Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center has released a new assessment of Russian interference in the 2024 elections.

Russia and Iran have both undertaken cyber influence operations headed into the 2024 presidential election. In our last report, published on August 8, we detailed how Iranian cyber-enabled influence operations sought to undermine the Republican campaign through targeted hack-and-leak operations, covert social media personas, and imposter US news sites. In the past two months, Microsoft has observed a notable shift in Russian influence operations tactics reflecting the changing U.S. political environment. Specifically, we have observed Russia pivot towards targeting the Harris-Walz campaign, with actors disseminating fabricated videos designed to sow discord and spread disinformation about the new Democratic nominee Vice President Harris.

We discuss this activity in a new report by the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) released today. This update follows other reports we have released around activity by actors advancing the geopolitical goals of Iran and China.

The shift to focusing on the Harris-Walz campaign reflects a strategic move by Russian actors aimed at exploiting any perceived vulnerabilities in the new candidates. Initially, Russian influence operations struggled to evolve their efforts following President Biden’s departure from the 2024 US presidential race. However, in late August and September, we observed two Russian actors MTAC tracks closely — previously reported as Storm-1516 and Storm-1679 — using videos designed to discredit Harris and stoke controversy around her campaign. Specifically:

Storm-1516, identified by news reports as a Kremlin-aligned troll farm, produced and disseminated two inauthentic videos, each generating millions of views. One video depicted an attack by alleged Harris supporters on a supposed Trump rally attendee, while another used an on-screen actor to fabricate false claims about Harris’s involvement in a hit-and-run accident. This second video was laundered through a website masquerading as a local San Francisco media outlet — which was only created days beforehand.

Storm-1679, a newer group reportedly aligned with the Kremlin, pivoted its focus from producing content about the 2024 Paris Olympic Games to publishing false videos discrediting Vice President Harris. One of the videos, which was shared on X shortly after it was published to Telegram, depicted a fake New York City billboard advancing false claims about Harris’ policies. The X post received more than 100,000 views in the four hours after it was published on Telegram.

As we inch closer to the election, we should expect Russian actors to continue to use cyber proxies and hacktivist groups to amplify their messages through media websites and social channels geared to spread divisive political content, staged videos, and AI-enhanced propaganda. The actions taken by the US government on September 4 mark an important and impactful step to protect against foreign influence targeting the upcoming US presidential election, and Microsoft suspended more than 20 active Microsoft email accounts created by the now sanctioned government-funded communications agency ANO Dialog. However, we have also observed actors attempting to create new infrastructure, with one threat actor already having moved media outlets from seized websites to new ones.

Russia and Iran are not the only nation-states using influence operations to influence the election. A Chinese-linked influence actor Microsoft tracks as Storm-1852 successfully pivoted to short-form video content that criticizes the Biden administration and Harris campaign before some of its assets disappeared from social media following reports of its activity. While most Storm-1852 personas masquerade as conservative US voters voting for Trump, a handful of accounts also create anti-Trump content and use political slogans and hashtags associated with American progressive politics.

Collectively, these three nation states — Iran, China and Russia — demonstrate the complexities of foreign interference that the US faces, and the need for the public to remain vigilant against these evolving threats. MTAC will continue to monitor this activity, and provide updates so voters, government institutions, candidates, parties, and others can be aware of influence campaigns and more resilient against foreign interference in democratic processes. As we’ve said before, our goal in releasing these reports is to promote education and protect institutions from any form of foreign interference. Microsoft will not endorse a candidate or political party.

Pokrovsk:

The Vampire heavy drone vs. russian targets in the Pokrovsk direction.
That’s why they call it “Baba Yaga”—a horrifying character from the folklore.

📹: 110th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/sF9srsHWq0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

As Russian forces continue their advance in the Pokrovsk front, long-standing systemic issues within the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to aid Russians with that. Based on numerous conversations with sergeants, as well as junior, and senior officers in command positions in the…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2024

As Russian forces continue their advance in the Pokrovsk front, long-standing systemic issues within the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to aid Russians with that. Based on numerous conversations with sergeants, as well as junior, and senior officers in command positions in the Donbas region, I am writing this post the goal of highlighting the most common and consistent problems mentioned by people on the ground, per their request. Unfortunately, the higher command remains largely unresponsive to these concerns when raised internally.

1. Disconnect in Command and Combat Readiness

There is an apparent disconnect between higher command assessment and the actual combat readiness of units. In many cases, units with limited operational capacity are tasked with responsibilities far beyond their capabilities. For example, newly formed brigades with little battlefield experience are assigned to defend critical and high-risk areas of the frontline, where Russian forces have massed sufficient strength for a potential breakthrough. At the same time, more experienced and better-equipped brigades are stationed in less dangerous sectors.

This imbalance has allowed Russian forces to pinpoint weak spots along the frontline and exploit them, especially during unit rotations – something that they can track easily due to their ISR capabilities. The Ukrainian command, in turn, often scrambles to reallocate battalions from other areas to stabilize vulnerable areas that appeared from miscalculations.
While such actions can help to stabilize the line and even prevent a breakthrough, it leaves other parts of the frontline exposed, perpetuating a cycle of vulnerability.

For context, what may appear to higher-ups as “a company with 60% of its personnel ready for deployment” may, in reality, be a fatigued unit with multiple soldiers in their 40s and 50s or people with previous injuries and chronic health problems, as well as newly arrived recruits with minimal training. The true combat readiness may be closer to 30-40%, but on paper, commanders see a combat-ready unit

2. The Lack of Truth and Realistic Reporting

The previously discussed disconnect raises the question: Why don’t officers report their unit’s inability to perform certain missions? The answer is simple: Brigade commanders and senior officers are ultimately responsible for the combat and mobilization readiness of their units per regulations. Admitting that a unit cannot perform a task is often seen as a failure of brigade leadership. As a result, the command’s solution is simple: if a commander cannot ensure the unit’s readiness, someone else will be appointed to do so. But the situation with resources or combat readiness of unit doesn’t improve – you just put a person who is going to push under-resourced and under-prepared units to complete a task they are not equipped to handle, leading to failed operations, abandoned positions, failed defenses, and unnecessary casualties – something that people can witness themselves by looking at the Deep State map.

3. Systematic Problems with Recruitment and Training

The quality and quantity of new recruits continue to fall short of expectations. Although some training centers have made improvements, overall readiness remains alarmingly insufficient. Many newly arrived soldiers are not prepared for the realities of frontline combat, forcing brigades to develop and implement their own internal training programs. The situation demands systemic reforms, including the creation of a structure that leverages the expertise of veterans or those recovering from injuries to train and mentor incoming recruits.

4. Little to no Accountability

Three years into the war, Ukraine has yet to fully implement an After Action Review (AAR) process, which hasn’t been implemented except in cases where individual officers took the initiative. The tactical level is the highest level where it’s used.

The blame for operational failures often falls on mid-level officers, and in some cases, even soldiers on the ground. Even in rare cases, after public scandals, when generals are removed from their posts following catastrophic failures, they are typically reassigned to other command positions rather than being held accountable, leaving little room for new, younger, and more innovative officers to rise through the ranks.

This inability to change with essentially a petrified soviet hierarchy within Ukraine’s military leadership continues to generate previously mentioned problems.

Epilogue

Ultimately, these problems are rooted in systemic failures at the top. Poor decision-making, inefficient resource allocation, inadequate recruitment and training programs, and a fundamental lack of understanding of the conditions on the ground continue to plague the AFU. These are not the failures of soldiers or officers who are risking their lives daily on the ground, and who are frequently blamed by command for failures. These are the consequences of people incapable of either admitting the problem or building a plan to address these problems.

The toll of these problems is paid by those on the frontlines, who sacrifice their lives and health to protect their families and their country.

Yes, it’s times worse on the Russian side. The problem is that they have resources to cover these setbacks.

Ukraine doesn’t have such resources, nor we can expect the West to provide enough indefinitely.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2024

But wait, there’s more…

Marjorie Taylor Greene now proven to have promoted a completely fraudulent narrative written in Moscow in 2023.

Will there be consequences ? https://t.co/RAiSM2dWAh pic.twitter.com/yoMAwPk22H

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 17, 2024

Another item in the leaked documents cites a member of Putin’s presidential admin amazed that Americans believed their campaign about Ukrainian child organs being harvested.

This narrative was intended merely as a counter to Putin’s indictment for child abduction by the ICC but… https://t.co/Gfy3vlK17i pic.twitter.com/GU5phShBat

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 17, 2024

Another item in the leaked documents cites a member of Putin’s presidential admin amazed that Americans believed their campaign about Ukrainian child organs being harvested.

This narrative was intended merely as a counter to Putin’s indictment for child abduction by the ICC but then actually pushed by US politicians like Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Kharkiv:

A few thoughts on the fear of escalation while in Kharkiv: Russia is fueling the fear, building their entire strategy on threats and manipulation. This can be stopped—let Ukraine strike back pic.twitter.com/xOGOfekuPB

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2024

Someday, I hope we will be able to sleep the entire night without waking up every 20 minutes to check where russian deadly drones are heading😒
No big news outlets report it, but they attack Ukraine every single night.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 18, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Start your day with a sincere smile and share it with your friend.

📷: 127th TDF Brigade pic.twitter.com/YjdPAnKviW

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

Happy holiday to @PatronDsns and all Ukraine’s emergency workers @SESU_UA . Your bravery, professionalism and dedication to service is an inspiration to us all. З днем рятівника! pic.twitter.com/6LKZlKs0Dh

— Martin Harris (@MartinHarrisOBE) September 17, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 937: Ukraine Is Not Getting Authorization to Use Long Range Weapons Any Time SoonPost + Comments (17)

War for Ukraine Day 936: A Brief Monday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman| September 16, 20248:45 pm| 8 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping updates. First, Rosie is doing well after her treatment today. Just two more to go. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, today was a much longer day than I was expecting. Nothing bad, just long. So just the basics tonight.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Next Week, We Are Preparing to Present the Victory Plan to Our Allies – President’s Address

16 September 2024 – 19:47

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, almost the entire day was focused primarily on military matters. There was a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi – a lengthy conversation at the start of the day, and just now, we spoke again to review the day’s outcomes. Over a hundred battles have taken place since the start of this day, with the most intense fighting in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions. We are defending our positions. We also reviewed the Kursk operation in detail, and each day we are acting precisely as planned. I want to thank every brigade and every unit for their coordinated actions and true resilience. Today, I signed several decrees awarding state honors to our warriors, particularly participants in the Kursk operation. I am proud of each and every one of them!

I held a meeting of the Staff, with a detailed focus on the protection of energy facilities. This included physical protection, relevant construction projects, air defense, and electronic warfare. The Prime Minister and energy companies provided reports. Additionally, there was an in-depth report from our intelligence services on the situation in the ranks of the occupying army, the situation on Russian territory, and within its population. It is important for us that the perception of the war in Russia is deteriorating, as is the public’s view of the results of Putin’s policies. We are working to ensure that reality ultimately overcomes Russian state propaganda. Of course, we are also preparing for Russia’s future actions in battles on the frontline. We are continuously working to ensure Ukraine has sufficient capacity and resources for the production and supply of drones. Regardless of changing global circumstances, Ukrainian warriors must receive everything necessary for successful defensive and active operations. Provision of drones is not merely a tactical matter – it is a strategic priority. I thank everyone involved in this effort, especially those helping our troops master new drone operation tactics.

Throughout the day, meetings were held in various formats to prepare our Ukrainian Victory Plan. The real substance of all the points – military, political, diplomatic, and economic. Key people from each sector are involved. The necessary steps for Ukraine have already been clearly defined. The steps designed to give us the strongest possible position to bring about peace – a real, just peace. For each step, there is a clear list of what is needed and what will strengthen us. There is nothing impossible in this plan. Over 90% has already been written out. Together, this package can ensure the right development of the situation not only for Ukraine, but for everyone in the world who values international law. Next week, we are preparing to present the Victory Plan to our allies.

Thank you to everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who helps us protect lives!

Glory to Ukraine!

This is all necessitated because the Biden administration has told the Ukrainians that until or unless they can articulate a plan to achieve victory against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion that satisfies the Biden administration, then the Biden administration is not going to lift the restrictions on the use of long range US weaponry. Frankly, it won’t matter much at this point even if they do because Russia has now moved everything even farther east and out of the range of the weaponry that Ukraine wants to use.

The cost:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

я була морально готова, але коли побачила тата, то хвилин 20 очі звикали до цього. ось так він зараз виглядає. був в полоні 2 роки 4 місяці. друге фото – січень 2022, яке я зробила перед його відʼїздом в Маріуполь.
перше фото @Liberov pic.twitter.com/ptGZa8Y6zj

— Alina (@alina_smo) September 16, 2024

Here’s the machine translation:

I was mentally ready, but when I saw my dad, it took 20 minutes for my eyes to get used to it. this is what he looks like now. was in captivity for 2 years and 4 months. the second photo is from January 2022, which I took before he left for Mariupol.
first photo @Liberov

Part 2 pic.twitter.com/agop9EIOAn

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 16, 2024

The US:

State Dept says Blinken and Biden discussed Ukraine on Friday.

Blinken conveyed his conversations with @Zelenskyy_Uaa and other Ukrainian leaders.

“I don’t have any announcements to make today”, DoS Spox adds.

— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) September 16, 2024

If only there was someone to be saying out loud all these 900 days that deliberations in supporting Ukraine only give Russia time to prepare for a long total war and find allies among rogue regimes. pic.twitter.com/KrytLghtjY

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 16, 2024

Also, the US:

Framing would-be Trump assassin Ryan Routh as a “Ukraine supporter” is deeply misleading.
Read these posts. This isn’t “support.” He’s clearly unwell, a straight up nutter ranting and raving about Ukraine at politicians, actors, and even Elton John like a drunk in a park. https://t.co/ehbHuyZFzp

— Jessica Berlin (@berlin_bridge) September 16, 2024

Here’s the rest of the quoted thread:

Long thread of the Trump shooter Ryan Routh’s craziest posts on X 🧵

1. Writes Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak that he, Ryan Routh, will personally buy Poland’s MiG-29 fighter jets and then “fly them at night just above ground and hit every place Putin sleeps”

2. Writes Polish Defense Minister Błaszczak that he’s an American business man who wants to meet with the Minister to buy Poland’s MiG-29 fighter jets and transfer them to Ukraine.

3. Writes U.S. Senator Mazie Hirono to ask whether she can help him “borrow some Patriot Missile Defense Systems”

4. Writes Sean Penn with a request that Sean and Ryan but Poland’s MiG-29 fighters jets together and then go together to borrow some Patriot Missile Defense Systems at the border.

“How can they say no to you?”

5. Writes U.S. Senator Brian Schatz that he is flying out to Ukraine in a few days but needs the Senator’s help to borrow some Patriot Missile Defense Systems which he, as a civilian, will then “learn how to operate”

6. Goes to Taiwan to offer them “50 000 Afghan soldiers”

7. Writes Seth Rogan to inform him that Seth, James Franco and Ryan himself should go together to North Korea to talk with Kim Jong Un to show him that America and North Korea can be friends.

8. Tries to write to the head of Hong Kong’s local government Carrie Lam hoping that she will make him “her private American advisor at no cost”

He believes that he and Carrie Lam can sit down with the protesting students and “find solutions”

9. Writes the Belarusian opposition during the street protests in the wake of the falsified presidential election in 2020.

Advises them to “buy sniper rifles from Amazon”

10. Writes Elton John with the hope that they can release a songs together to rally more support for Ukraine.

Ryan has already prepared the lyrics and music to the song “We Are One.”

He believes it would be a good idea to have young kids sing the chorus

11. Writes the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council that he has 20 000 Afghan and Syrian soldiers that could come to Ukraine to fight against Russia.

12. Writes Tulsi Gabbard during her primary campaign in 2020 that he has requested she go with him to help out an a homeless shelter in Hawaii in a PR-move to help her campaign

13. After never receiving an answer from Tulsi, he gets angry and accuses her of being a “Republican and a Trump nut”

Says the grey streak in her hair is “stupid”

14. Writes Nikki Haley to tell her he is disappointed in her. Wanted to hear more in her speech about Taiwan, China, Ukraine and “the Gaza Murders”

15. Admits days before leaving for Ukraine that he has “no military experience” but hopes to receive help from journalist Jack Hewson

And the final 16th tweets:

Claims he is a “Hawaii leader” and invites Kim Jong Un to Hawaii for vacation. Says he can arrange the whole trip.

Oy vey.

But wait, there’s more…

Warning about Ryan Routh: he is not, and never has been, associated with the International Legion or the Ukrainian Armed Forces at all. He is not, & never has been, a legion recruiter. He is misrepresenting himself and lying to many people.

Routh is currently posting on Facebook about getting Afghanistan citizens into the International Legion. He told the New York Times in 2023 that he wanted to get soldiers into Ukraine illegally.

nytimes.com/2023/03/25/wor…

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/world/europe/volunteers-us-ukraine-lies.html

Ryan Routh has many many public Facebook posts about getting soldiers into Ukraine in 2023 and 2024. He has no authority to act on behalf of Ukraine, and ignores laws about visas.

Routh is either human trafficking, scamming people, or attempting to break as many country’s laws as he can by trying to smuggle people into Ukraine to fight. This is unethical, unprofessional, and unacceptable. Worse, he is doing this by insisting he is helping Ukraine.

Other issues: Routh has posted soldiers phone numbers on websites without permission; given out recruiters phone numbers to people without permission; manipulates people to breaking laws. Avoid any contact with Routh, as he misrepresents what he can legally do.

I served in the International Legion for two years, and I’ve told Routh many times since 2022 that he’s not helping and what he’s going is illegaly. He doesn’t listen.

Second screenshot. Look how he reacts when called on his behavior. He was another guy with a hero complex that turned on Ukraine when he got rejected. Many such cases. https://t.co/VtqbVTUSIS

— SK Media🇺🇦 (@SpaghettiKozak) September 16, 2024

That boy ain’t right!

Danish military expert Anders Nielsen @anderspuck shares his opinion on why the West does not respond with force to Russian provocations:

▪️ Recently, there has been an increase in hybrid attacks on Europe, which Russia or its agents may be behind. These include fires, sabotage,… pic.twitter.com/nliu8vp8Lo

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 16, 2024

Danish military expert Anders Nielsen @anderspuck shares his opinion on why the West does not respond with force to Russian provocations:

▪️ Recently, there has been an increase in hybrid attacks on Europe, which Russia or its agents may be behind. These include fires, sabotage, cyber attacks, attempted murders.

In addition, there have recently been several cases when Russian drones violated the airspace of NATO countries – Romania, Latvia, and Poland.

▪️ Contrary to expectations, the Western reaction to these incidents was very calm. There was no media uproar, and no direct action against Russia was taken. According to Anders Nielsen, there is a good reason for this.

“The first thing to understand is that this is a very deliberate strategy on the part of the Western countries not to make a big deal out of these things,” the analyst believes.

Nielsen believes that NATO countries have the courage and guts to confront Russia. However, Western governments believe that such a confrontation is not in their interests.

Because the point of Russian provocations is not the action itself but the creation of the effect in the information space. In fact, these are information operations.

▪️ What the Kremlin is trying to accomplish:
– set the agenda in the Western news media;
– move the war to Europe so that Europeans feel the consequences;
– to force NATO countries to withdraw support from Ukraine and redirect resources to their own defense.

Accordingly, the lack of response to Russian provocations and hybrid warfare is a refusal to play by the rules set by Russia.

▪️ The Western strategy of ignoring Russian hybrid attacks has been successful so far. Russia has failed to drive a wedge between Western countries and Ukraine, and the aid and support have not stopped.

However, in the long term, if Russia continues to send more and more drones across the border into NATO countries, it will become difficult to pretend that this is all an accident or a mistake.

Latvia:

Latvia announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at EUR 40 million.

The package will include 9 CVR(T) armored fighting vehicles, drones, individual equipment for soldiers and sappers.

We are grateful to our Latvian friends for their staunch support. Together, we… pic.twitter.com/oF7mIynQNv

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 16, 2024

Latvia announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at EUR 40 million.

The package will include 9 CVR(T) armored fighting vehicles, drones, individual equipment for soldiers and sappers.

We are grateful to our Latvian friends for their staunch support. Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇻
@AizsardzibasMin

@AndrisSpruds

Denmark:

Ukraine will receive another batch of F-16 fighter jets from Denmark by the end of the year

This was announced by the country’s Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.

The number of planes is classified for security reasons. pic.twitter.com/awNmnZDNTQ

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 16, 2024

Syria:

❗️BREAKING:

Kyiv Post: Ukrainian Defense Intelligence blows up Russian UAV base in Syria

At the base in Aleppo, Russia manufactured and tested attack drones and “camouflaged improvised explosive devices”.

Special forces destroyed the positions. pic.twitter.com/4i18OXU20Y

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 16, 2024

Kharkiv:

Took trolley around Kharkiv. It feels extra special during blackouts and air raids. You can see the city’s strength and beauty everywhere, even in the scarred facade of Kharkiv Palace. Hole left by missile now covered with windows printed on film pic.twitter.com/RCnFiHKGM7

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 16, 2024

The Kursk cross border offensive:

The destruction of a modern russian BMD-4 IFV in the Kursk region.

📹: Air Assault Forces Command pic.twitter.com/3qQb4M9H0G

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 16, 2024

⚡️JUST IN:

Authorities in Russia’s Kursk region announced mandatory evacuation from Rylsk and Khomutovsk districts

What about the “counteroffensive” of the Russian army? pic.twitter.com/ore3xMp57C

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 16, 2024

Moscow:

Putin has signed a decree increasing the overall size of the Russian armed forces by 180,000: to 2.39 million people. Of that, 1.5 million are actual military (as opposed to civilian)https://t.co/9k89LKQylS pic.twitter.com/tjGskvLZoL

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) September 16, 2024

Today, Putin increased the military’s size for the 3rd time since 2022. Can they sustain 1.5M postwar, at a time when the budget will be under pressure to procure equipment? Not without tradeoffs. See my new report for more on this and other tradeoffs👇 https://t.co/jafqgTzksb

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) September 16, 2024

From the Carnegie Endowment:

SUMMARY
Russia is poised to begin a long-term military reconstitution program designed to restore losses from its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to potentially expand the force beyond 2022 levels. While the Kremlin has not yet decided on the future force design of its military, this paper highlights the near-term policy choices, opportunities, and constraints that will likely shape Russia’s military reconstitution process through 2030. As the Kremlin’s antagonism toward Ukraine and the West sharpens, it will be critically important for policymakers and warfighters to anticipate, monitor, and respond to Russia’s military reconstitution progress in the years ahead.

What is reconstitution, and how should it be thought of in practice? Broadly speaking, reconstitution is a process by which a military unit is restored to a sufficient level of combat capability after sustaining losses in combat. Reconstitution is accomplished through replenishing a unit with personnel, equipment, and other critical enabling components. Reconstitution begins during wartime and continues in the postwar period, as military and civilian leaders make procurement and recruiting investments to restore wartime losses.

Reconstitution should not be framed as a military force being in a binary state of “reconstituted” or “unreconstituted,” and nor should reconstitution be measured only through the restoration of prewar numbers of personnel and equipment. Conceptualizing reconstitution in such a manner is too imprecise to be beneficial for strategists and planners. Reconstitution is a process of regaining combat functions, proficiency, and capabilities that will allow a force to execute various types of combat missions.

A more precise method of evaluating Russian reconstitution requirements and the Kremlin’s progress toward those goals involves identifying requisite force structures and proficiency levels for Russian forces to accomplish different types of missions. Reconstitution requirements vary based on the specific conflict scenario, whether it is a limited power projection into another neighboring country that is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a second attempt at achieving 2022 maximalist invasion goals for Ukraine, or a war against NATO.

In the two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has chosen to reconstitute its forces without setting the economy on a full war footing. It has done so through partial mobilization, repairing on-hand equipment, purchasing ammunition and weapons from abroad, offering lucrative financial incentives for volunteer soldiers, and maximizing production at existing defense factories. Yet, apart from drone production, equipment production capacities have plateaued as of early 2024. Russia could generate more efficiency in the system by reducing corruption on the margins and reemphasizing innovation for certain technologies, but this would not result in a dramatic increase in available resources.

For Russia to reach a fundamentally higher level of weapons production or manpower availability compared to early 2024 levels, the government would need to activate additional mobilization authorities that would likely affect its economy, labor market, and population’s engagement with the war, putting the country on even more of a wartime footing than it is as of 2024. Thus far, the Kremlin’s calculus and political will have constrained Russia from taking such a step.

While a precise vision of the future regenerated Russian military has not yet come into focus, it is clear from recent debates and actions that Russian leadership intends to enlarge the force. It is also likely that the acquisition of combat experience has raised the military’s proficiency. Still, Russia faces multiple financial and demographic factors that will constrain how far it can grow qualitatively and quantitatively by 2030.

Key Findings

Thus far, Russian leaders speak in euphemisms about their combat losses in Ukraine and cloak their considerable regeneration requirements by tying them to a need to counterbalance NATO expansion. This allows authorities to justify expenses and force expansion without admitting that these high requirements mostly stem from losses in Ukraine.

Russia is reconstituting its force in the short term by refurbishing older equipment at sufficient rates, mobilizing personnel, and recruiting volunteers. The majority of Russia’s equipment delivered to the front lines is refurbished equipment. It is suitable for soldiers’ needs but is qualitatively worse than newer equipment. If early 2024 loss rates continue, Russia risks depleting available Soviet-era stockpiles for certain types of equipment possibly in 2026.

Russian leaders have a few options for reconstituting the force in the medium term (through 2030), and the path they choose will be determined by the Kremlin’s priorities. If reconstituting and expanding the force as quickly as possible is of paramount importance, Russia’s current reconstitution efforts, which have plateaued, will be insufficient. In this case, Russian leaders will likely be forced to take steps that they have so far resisted—for example, activating additional mobilization authorities to move society and the economy to expand domestic production capacity.

If managing domestic stability and economic concerns are more important than rapid reconstruction and force expansion, Russian leaders will likely continue to accept risk and produce equipment at the current 2024 capacity levels, or gradually expand production over time through the early 2030s. This pathway is probably only feasible for the Kremlin if the conflict in Ukraine freezes or ends and Russia is willing to temporarily rely on older Soviet equipment from reserves as it produces new equipment over time.

Presently, several structural factors limit the rate at which new Russian military equipment can be produced. Space at Russian defense factories is in high demand for multiple purposes (new builds, repairs, and exports) and cannot easily be converted to increase new domestic production without resulting in tradeoffs. Further, Russia’s production capacity cannot be expanded much beyond 2024 levels unless new factories are built or Russian leaders accept the risk in temporarily halting exports (which is unlikely) or halting production while factories can be retooled and updated (which is incompatible with production rates needed to sustain wartime demands).

Other methods to expand defense industrial output include expanding powers to convert civilian factories into wartime production factories, which would be a signpost that mobilization is expanding in Russia. Russia could opt to import armored equipment from other countries, although doing so would be a major departure from historical norms. Such a departure would suggest that Russia is unwilling to accept risk in the short term and plans to continue offensive action against Ukraine.

Reconstituting personnel and proficiency in the postwar years will also be a complex challenge for the Kremlin. Impacts of the war on military retention are currently masked due to wartime policies that prohibit servicemen from resigning. Russia is resorting to providing higher wages and social benefits to attract wartime recruits, but maintaining this high per capita spending in the postwar period would add more internal pressure on an already high defense budget.

Some officials are requesting a larger force—up to 1.5 million personnel, but so far the force remains capped at an elevated 1.3 million. Expanding the force would require significant investment in the production of new equipment, the recruitment of additional professional soldiers in a society that has recently grown accustomed to high wages and expensive social entitlements and benefits, as well as the construction of new military base infrastructure. These expenses would coincide with procurement pressures on an already bloated defense budget and an already strained male labor force.

Notably, Russia has large untapped human resources that so far have not been utilized to staff the war effort. Russia has not reached far into its large reserve officer cadre, and nor have they lifted restrictions on the types of positions Russian women can hold in the military or the defense industrial base. Instead, authorities have chosen other stopgap measures, such as condensing military training for new cadets or recruiting from prisons or abroad to fill its military billets and some defense industry jobs. Changes to these policies would be a signpost that Russia intends to expand the military or defense industry workforce.

Excessive secrecy about casualties and equipment losses, along with expanded censorship laws that limit free speech on many topics related to the Russian military, are likely to hinder or distort reconstruction debates. Criticisms of the war effort, particularly of the high equipment and manpower costs, are increasingly taboo, criminalized, or classified. Such a closed environment limits the discourse on reconstruction and the future design of the Russian military. This secrecy, self-censorship, and censorship are also at odds with the Kremlin’s directives to increase innovation in the private sector.

Groups of junior officers and experienced noncommissioned officers (NCOs) have sustained the heaviest casualties in the war, but the survivors will have extended combat experience and compressed formal military education. This combination may lead to rapid transformational change in the Russian military in the future, if the survivors’ experiences can be harnessed and introduced widely in the postwar years.

Russia’s preferences for a larger force may not be entirely compatible with its demographic and financial realities, and the Kremlin may find that it is unable or unwilling to finance a larger professional standing army. Balancing these preferences and constraints may lead once again to a mixed readiness system for the military, where a smaller and financially manageable active-duty force of 1 million is maintained along with an expansive (and now combat experienced) strategic reserve of personnel and equipment that could be mobilized if necessary. This path would allow Russia to maintain a larger force potential without incurring the significant financial costs and infrastructure requirements of maintaining a larger permanently ready force. Such a force would resemble the return of the mixed readiness system of the late-Soviet and immediate post-Soviet era and would be a significant departure from the last twenty years of force posture and military thought.

The Russian military has historical experience with capturing lessons learned from wars and implementing them throughout the force. Specifically, the military may draw from experiences of the post–World War II learning period that rapidly ingested and disseminated lessons throughout the Soviet military. Formal learning organizations will likely be set up in the immediate postwar years to conduct analysis and disseminate the findings to influence concepts, operational art, and force design. This process will be impeded if the process is compromised due to political sensitivities or false reporting.

Much more at the link.

This is probably as much propaganda as intention signaling. For the foreseeable future the size of Russia’s military will be determined by casualty and recruitment rates, not by size target, but many journos are naive enough to report the size target as if it’s the actual size. https://t.co/WIz0Cd1eYf

— Tom Warner (@warnerta) September 16, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 936: A Brief Monday Night UpdatePost + Comments (8)

War for Ukraine Day 935: Russia Bombarded Kharkiv with Glide Bombs Again Today

by Adam L Silverman| September 15, 20247:55 pm| 17 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Her next treatment is tomorrow. It is the second of the final four. She’s almost done. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I’ve caught up on a bit of sleep, but am still fried. So, I’m going to hit the basics, hit publish, take care of a couple of things, and rack out.

Right now – 7:20 PM EDT/2:20 AM local time in Ukraine – all of northern central and central Ukraine is under air raid alert.

Russia opened up on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv again today.

Russians just hit Kharkiv with guided bomb. They keep targeting houses, hospitals, and schools. And we’re still waiting for the permission to hit back pic.twitter.com/WTeIT7T12e

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 15, 2024

Tragically, at least one person has died. The body was recovered from the 9th floor and cannot be identified without a DNA test

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 15, 2024

Here’s the full text of the first tweet:

Today, on the last warm and sunny Sunday of the year, as Kharkiv citizens enjoyed their day off with their families, russia struck Kharkiv with at least four guided aerial bombs.

One of the bombs hit an apartment building, setting it ablaze.

At least 41 people were wounded, punished for simply being Ukrainians at their homes. Among them are three children. Unfortunately, this number is likely to rise.

It happened before, and it will happen again. We are locked in some devilish loop of being denied the range to defend ourselves, trying to live between the strikes and being hit again. Again and again and again.

And no decisions are made. Again.

More at the link.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Airstrike on Russian positions in Vesoloe, Kursk region.
(51.2888146, 34.5462134)https://t.co/qBYsuBo4be pic.twitter.com/8zerENx2sS

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 15, 2024

Village of Vesoloe is in the area of #Ukraine‘s new advance into Russia’s Kursk region. This week Ukrainian forces entered the white lined area. They’ll be hoping to link up with 🇺🇦 forces already in the Sudzha area – and also push up to the river Seym (red line). https://t.co/UdlQuuqPO8 pic.twitter.com/EWtC1wBB16

— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) September 15, 2024

Russia:

Meanwhile in Russia: Vladimir Solovyov argued with Margarita Simonyan’s husband, Tigran Keosayan, who claimed that long-range missile strikes wouldn’t be that big of a deal and ridiculed hysterical people like Solovyov for demanding nuclear strikes.https://t.co/e2taKqqFRr

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 15, 2024

Putin’s ability to shift the narrative and direct attention elsewhere is an important part of his strategy for fighting Russia’s war in Ukraine. To think that he won’t or can’t back down or accept defeat ignores his track record of doing precisely that. https://t.co/nA2UIrK4dJ

— Dr Jenny Mathers @jgmaber.bsky.social (@jgmaber) September 15, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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First, this good boy was saved in Kharkiv today.

Kharkiv , Sunday, russian attack. https://t.co/D36t2aIT7t pic.twitter.com/crroCEqfuM

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 15, 2024

The owner is okay, local news reported he was rescued next.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 15, 2024

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

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War for Ukraine Day 935: Russia Bombarded Kharkiv with Glide Bombs Again TodayPost + Comments (17)

War for Ukraine Day 934: 103 More Ukrainian POWs and Detainees Returned Home Today

by Adam L Silverman| September 14, 202410:12 pm| 22 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thanks for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, is it Friday yet?

The Ukrainians completed another prisoner exchange today.

Our people are home.

We have successfully brought back another 103 warriors from Russian captivity to Ukraine.

82 privates and sergeants. 21 officers. Defenders of the Kyiv and Donetsk regions, Mariupol and Azovstal, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv regions. Warriors of the… pic.twitter.com/M9YsZjpFct

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 14, 2024

Our people are home.

We have successfully brought back another 103 warriors from Russian captivity to Ukraine.

82 privates and sergeants. 21 officers. Defenders of the Kyiv and Donetsk regions, Mariupol and Azovstal, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv regions. Warriors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard of Ukraine, border guards, and police officers.

I thank our exchange team for delivering such good news for Ukraine.

Another 103 Ukrainians back home from Russian captivity, including 23 from Azov after two insanely long years. This is the 3rd exchange since the Kursk operation started. A total of 267 have returned in just three weeks pic.twitter.com/eEEGuWtGTA

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 14, 2024

The Ukrainian Navy has released footage of a Russian/Iranian Shahed flying bomb being shot down from a boat. Ukraine faced another massive Shahed attack last night: Air defenses shot down 72 of 76 drones, two disappeared in Ukrainian airspace, and two flew back to Russia. pic.twitter.com/46zWCrerXl

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 14, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Are Putting Pressure on Russia and Doing Everything to Make the War Felt There, Where It Was Brought to Ukraine from — Address by the President

14 September 2024 – 21:21

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

First: we conducted another exchange. 103 Ukrainian defenders were returned from Russian captivity. The guys had been in captivity since 2022 — since the first months of the war. They are warriors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, border guards, police officers, and other units of our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine. In particular, the defenders of Kyiv region, Donetsk region — this is Mariupol, Azovstal and other parts of the region. Also, those captured in Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Among them, there are guys in critical condition after being wounded. All of them will be provided with the necessary assistance. I thank our team involved in the exchanges. And I thank, for their bravery, all our combat brigades that replenish the exchange fund for our state. And in particular, our operation in the Kursk region gave the necessary impetus.

I have just spoken with the Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. A report on the frontline: Donetsk region, key directions. We are holding our positions, no matter how difficult it is. He also reported on the Kursk region — on our actions and the enemy’s reaction. As anticipated, we are defending our fundamental interest — to bring peace closer. We are putting pressure on Russia and doing everything to make the war felt there, where it was brought to Ukraine from.

I met with a delegation of U.S. Congressmen. It is important to keep our partners at all levels fully informed of our needs, of our positions. It is crucial that all states, and especially those like the United States, implement our agreements really promptly. This should be felt on the frontline. Every delay in military packages has its negative consequences at the front. Every truly timely, fast delivery has a positive impact. I briefed the Congressmen on the current situation and the prospects.

We are also preparing for meetings in the United States.

And a few other things. I have signed a decree to honor our tank warriors with state awards. Today is their professional day. And I thank every warrior, as well as everyone without whom the tank troops could not function — these are the guys-repairers, as well as everyone who trains our tank crews and who fights in the diplomatic sphere to ensure that Ukraine receives combat vehicles.

Today, it is also important to say a few words to those of our people without whom it is impossible to imagine a really long-term international advocacy of Ukrainian interests. Today is Cinema Day in Ukraine — celebrated every year on the second Saturday of September. Of course, in times of war, cinema serves primarily as a means of conveying the truth about what is happening and what people are going through. I want to thank all those who, through the language of cinema, provide the world with truthful knowledge about this time and about how Ukraine and Ukrainians will definitely overcome the occupier. It cannot be otherwise. Only our victory, only Ukraine’s independence, only real security of life, life and international law. And we must remember that one of our key tasks now and in the future is to tell the world about Ukraine, to establish friendship for Ukraine with as many countries, peoples, communities as possible. Ukrainian cinema, Ukrainian culture, and our people, of whom we can only be proud, will certainly do this. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The reason:

“Mommy, I’m already in Ukraine!”
It is impossible to watch this video without tears.
Our Defender, released from captivity, reads a poem for his mother. https://t.co/02tamXkfB6 pic.twitter.com/3frZgnerS2

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 14, 2024

Dad sees his little son and his wife for the first time after years in Russian captivity. https://t.co/02tamXkfB6 pic.twitter.com/iSSKf1MSC3

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 14, 2024

During today’s prisoner exchange, Azov soldier Kyrylo Zaitsev, the father of the youngest child trapped in Azovstal’s bunkers, was released.

Little Sviat Zaitsev arrived at the plant with his family when he was just three months old. The child left the basements when he was six… https://t.co/ci9xVgFeYM pic.twitter.com/n96FbBvV5E

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 14, 2024

During today’s prisoner exchange, Azov soldier Kyrylo Zaitsev, the father of the youngest child trapped in Azovstal’s bunkers, was released.

Little Sviat Zaitsev arrived at the plant with his family when he was just three months old. The child left the basements when he was six months old.

The family returned to Ukraine through filtration camps, but the dad, a former employee of the plant, joined the Mariupol garrison and was exchanged only now, after 2.5 years of captivity.

He hasn’t seen his wife or child in over 2 years.

Lithuania:

Today in Kyiv, I met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, @GLandsbergis

We discussed the situation on the front lines: our cities are under fire every day, the enemy continues to kill civilians. Together with our allies, we must stop it.

Ukraine’s priorities… pic.twitter.com/XDnpWPW0Mh

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) September 13, 2024

Today in Kyiv, I met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, @GLandsbergis

We discussed the situation on the front lines: our cities are under fire every day, the enemy continues to kill civilians. Together with our allies, we must stop it.

Ukraine’s priorities remain unchanged: strengthening air defense and increasing the ability to strike the enemy. We need more air defense systems and missiles to protect our skies and strengthen our defenses.

In addition, Lithuania is providing 10 million euros to support our long-range capabilities, including funding for the Palyanytsia rocket-drone. This will help us to resist the aggressor even more effectively.

Mr. Landsbergis confirmed that Lithuania will continue to actively support Ukraine in the international arena.

I thank Lithuania for its decisive support in this difficult time. I believe that together we can achieve victory and peace. 🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹

Toronto:

Anna Hints, Estonian filmmaker and a member of the European Film Academy, watched Trofimova’s film at @TIFF_NET and wrote a great post on Instagram. Anna is a professional in this field, so she saw clearly what artistic tools Trofimova used to push Kremlin’s narratives. pic.twitter.com/1AIIowAPB2

— RitorFella🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@RitornellaNYC) September 13, 2024

Here’s the full size screen shot:

Italy:

Hundreds of posters have appeared on billboards across Italy this summer, bearing the slogan: “Russia is not our enemy” – CNN

The posters, which first appeared in northern Italy in June and have been seen in several Italian cities, were paid for by associations that were formed… https://t.co/BQ3FnTQyPQ pic.twitter.com/qUWwKrgRDn

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 14, 2024

Hundreds of posters have appeared on billboards across Italy this summer, bearing the slogan: “Russia is not our enemy” – CNN

The posters, which first appeared in northern Italy in June and have been seen in several Italian cities, were paid for by associations that were formed to protest the country’s Covid-19 lockdowns. Some of them also feature the words, “Enough money for weapons for Ukraine and Israel. We want peace. We reject war.”

“We are deeply concerned by the arrogance of Russian propaganda in the Eternal City. We ask @comuneroma to reconsider granting permits for such posters that have a clear purpose of rehabilitating the image of the aggressor state,” the Ukrainian Embassy in Italy @UKRinIT

Official reactions to the posters have varied; some regions saw local officials remove them, while others allowed them to remain until the payment expired.

Source: https://cnn.com/2024/09/13/europe/pro-russian-posters-italy-intl-scli/index.html

The anti-COVID protection movement – masking, lockdowns, anti-vaccination, taking all sorts of weird conconctions instead of getting vaccinated, terrorizing local officials – were always promoted and amplified as part of Russia’s ongoing political warfare and influence operations against the US, the EU, EU member states, and NATO. That they’re pivoting to this should not be a surprise. Similarly, Russia’s political warfare and influence operation efforts promoted that Europeans, especially the migrants that had fled to Europe, were eating pets. Russia created the migrant crisis as part of its political warfare both by setting the conditions in Syria and parts of Africa to create the migration and then using its influence operations and local proxies to attack the migrants as a threat to white Europeans and Europe’s Christian history and nature. Any of that sound familiar?

Germany:

‘Germany will not send Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine,’ said scholz

‘We have made a clear decision about what we will and will not do. This decision will not change,’ he added.

How much longer do we have to put up with this chancellor? pic.twitter.com/CEZ10LCffH

— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) September 14, 2024

The 7 stages of “escalation management”

1 We condemn this
2 We condemn this strongly
3 We strongly condemn this with concern
4 We are very concerned & condemn this
5 There will be consequences
6 “For as long as it takes”
7 It is important not to escalate the situation

Repeat https://t.co/BHPdSg4NOw

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) September 14, 2024

Canada:

Despite Russian threats and nuclear blackmail, there should be no restrictions on Ukraine using Western weapons to strike military targets deep in Russian territory, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau said on Sept. 13.https://t.co/vh1oPxLZDe

— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) September 14, 2024

The US:

By micromanaging Ukraine’s strategy and tactics, the White House is enabling Russia’s war machine, @EHunterChristie argues. https://t.co/xbTjSomccm

— Foreign Policy (@ForeignPolicy) September 14, 2024

From Foreign Policy:

In Robert De Niro’s 2006 spy thriller The Good Shepherd, fictional mob boss Joseph Palmi (played by Joe Pesci) tells CIA officer Edward Wilson (played by Matt Damon): “You’re the guys that scare me. You’re the people that make big wars.” To which the CIA man responds: “No, we make sure the wars are small ones, Mr. Palmi.”

Viewers may be tempted to see some dark truth in that dialogue—namely, that the U.S. government plots and schemes to create wars, with the only saving grace being that it tries to keep them contained. There is, however, another possible reading that is altogether more relevant for our time: It is the wars initiated by other states that Washington tries to keep small.

Keeping the war from going beyond Ukraine’s borders or escalating to the nuclear weapons stage is the thread running through the Biden administration’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the start. Washington has set a very clear constraint on Western assistance to Kyiv: Support is restricted to diplomatic, economic, and security assistance, while the United States and other NATO states must not become belligerents in the war. In short, sanctions and weapons supplies, but no boots on the ground or pilots in the air.

But Washington’s abundance of caution has gone much further than the simple decision of not putting U.S. and NATO personnel at risk of direct conflict with Russia. Rather than providing Kyiv as quickly as possible with the full spectrum of weapons that it needs to take on a peer adversary, there has been a long series of delays and hesitations regarding arms deliveries that cannot be explained purely by technical factors, such as the availability of weapons or the need to train Ukrainians to use them.

Instead, a pattern has emerged of purely political hesitations by the White House, notably regarding the long delays prior to authorizing deliveries of longer-range missiles and combat aircraft as well as the current blockage on any use of Western weapons against military targets and related infrastructure deep within Russia. The volume of military aid has also slowed markedly, with $6 billion of the $7.8 billion approved by the U.S. Congress in April still unused and about to expire on Sept. 30.

Taken together, these policy choices define the White House’s escalation management approach. To keep the war small, Washington has placed a very tight leash on Kyiv’s prosecution of the war. The result is a pattern of politically chosen limitations on the type of weapons and munitions delivered, the amount and speed of the aid, the numbers of Ukrainians trained on critical weapons, and the permitted uses of the equipment.

Washington has also made sure that European allies abide by the same limits, vetoing or delaying proposed deliveries and overruling key allies’ objections to targeting restrictions, even in situations where the weapons concerned are not from U.S. production.

By essentially micromanaging Ukraine’s strategy and tactics, the White House has sought to keep the war small. The Biden administration’s theory of escalation management also finds its expression in the nebulous formula of helping Ukraine “as long as it takes”—rather than declaring the goal to be a Ukrainian victory and using the formula of “whatever it takes,” which is preferred by many European allies.

Indeed, views differ among NATO member states regarding the level of military assistance that the West should provide, with Northern and Central European allies often at the forefront of pushing for more decisive assistance. It’s clear that none of these governments wants a wider war, nor one that involves nuclear weapons; they and their populations would be among the first to suffer from any such escalation. Many of them know and understand Moscow extremely well.

Hence, their more forward-leaning positions suggest that there may be something broken in how the White House seeks to manage escalation—and whether escalation management is even the right approach.

A current case is illustrated by the long-standing proposals by London and Paris to let Kyiv use British- and French-made weapons they already supplied to Ukraine—in particular, Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles—to strike targets in Russia, including the military airfields that Russia uses to launch bombing runs on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and cities. By the end of May, Finland, Canada, Poland, Czechia, Denmark, and Sweden, among others, had all expressed public support for abolishing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of allied-supplied weapons.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the time, the Europeans were trying to build a new consensus before moving forward, “with the position in Washington being crucial.”

Washington responded in the narrow spirit of escalation management by avoiding the simple choice that key allies called for—and salami-slicing it into smaller steps. At the end of May, the White House apparently gave the green light to Ukraine for short-range strikes into a narrow border zone in Russia, but only if the target was directly involved in the Russian attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. This was clarified in late June to allow for short-range strikes into any bordering region of Russia. Deep strikes into Russia remain verboten.

A further illustration of the Biden team’s escalation micromanagement mindset came with a visit by Ukrainian officials in Washington, D.C., in August. There, they presented the U.S. side with an exact list of targets that could be attacked with Western deep-strike capabilities, effectively asking for permission for each individual target.

The U.S. position has slowly evolved since summer 2022. At first, Ukraine was only allowed to fight within its borders and only at rocket-launcher range. Reluctantly, the White House then allowed deep-strike range—but only at targets within Ukraine (for example, to target the Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea). Now, strikes into Russia’s border region at rocket-launcher range are permitted, but deep strikes into Russia are not. It took two years and four months for Washington to reach that position, which is still heavily and one-sidedly detrimental to Ukraine. Russia never placed any range or target limitations on itself and has launched deep strikes into Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis condemned this imbalance on X: “We cannot allow Russian bombers to be better protected than Ukrainian civilians are.”

Crucially, if deep strikes into Russia were a trigger for escalation, the world would know by now. Ukraine has launched repeated drone strikes at Russian energy infrastructure, including strikes on oil refineries more than 600 miles into Russia in April and May as well as an attack on a refinery in Moscow on Sept. 1. No escalation by Russia has been observed since then. Ukraine’s successful invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, the first occupation of Russia by a foreign force since World War II, also went unanswered beyond rhetoric.

In sum, what we have is a White House applying an escalation management algorithm that does not learn or self-adjust. Ideally, U.S. decision-makers would repeatedly test and update their estimates of Russia’s intentions and possible actions, with the aim of ratcheting up toward greater effectiveness. Instead, their algorithm remains impervious to their allies’ inputs and observable reality in the war as Ukraine acts and Russia reacts.

Worse, Washington’s broken algorithm subjects Ukraine to avoidable dangers and losses that will saddle any postwar scenario with greater costs and risks. These avoidable dangers and losses also threaten the entire outcome of the war.

The choice to use target distance as a key variable to salami-slice assistance into supposedly less-escalatory steps suggests a narrow mental map: one that views the Russia-Ukraine war almost exclusively as a land war where the only important variable is the location of the front line. But the location of that front line will matter a lot less if Ukraine loses the air war that Moscow wages against Ukraine’s home front. For months now, Russian airstrikes have repeatedly hit Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure and other targets across the country. Russia’s aims are obvious: to make Ukrainian cities uninhabitable in order to trigger large population movements, disrupt defense efforts, and force Kyiv to surrender.

The air war is also a key factor influencing the location of the front line—in particular, Russia’s use of devastating glide bombs delivered by bombers flying out of airfields that are located deep inside Russia and thus protected by the White House. Indeed, the use of long-range precision fires to take out these and other enemy targets is a key component of U.S. military doctrine—hence the repeated calls by prominent retired U.S. Air Force and Army commanders to lift range restrictions on Ukraine and take the air war seriously.

In every area that pertains to the air war, U.S. assistance has fallen far short of what it could be. Even in air defense, U.S. shipments have been a tiny fraction of what Washington has in its inventory and can inarguably spare. As for F-16 fighter jets, while the United States supports European transfers to Ukraine, it is not donating any of its own. A further disappointment is that the United States reportedly refuses to prioritize the training of Ukrainian pilots on these aircraft, a situation that a prominent Ukrainian lawmaker described in June as deliberate and caused by “purely political” delay tactics.

There is more at the link if you can stomach it.

In 2015, a NATO Ally shot down a russian jet (not just an unmanned aerial vehicle or a missile!), which violated its airspace. In 2024, NATO Allies have millions of excuses why they can’t intercept russian missiles & drones breaching their skies on the way to kill Ukrainians. pic.twitter.com/7eacdm3oil

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) September 14, 2024

Stated fear is that Ukrainian strikes “deep into Russia” could lead to escalation.

But range of Storm Shadow is 250km, and ATACMS 300km. They cannot fly beyond far fringe of biggest country in world. This is not “deep into Russia”.

— Nigel Gould-Davies (@Nigelgd1) September 14, 2024

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the President of the Kyiv School of Economics, places Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s existential defense in the proper context:

Russia is not a Ukraine’s problem—it’s the EU’s

Eventually, after the war in Ukraine is over, won or lost, Russia will focus on another target: Georgia, the Baltic states, or even the Nordic countries

An aggressive Russia will remain. And what will Europe do? 1/

This is an unpopular, often overlooked view.

The West and Ukraine have a conflict of objectives. Many people think that Ukraine wants to escalate to defend, while it’s not the West’s war and the West should try to stay away from it. But it is not that 2/

Ukraine wants Russia to move on. The West wants Russia to stop being aggressive.

The point here is that Ukraine has proven to everyone and first of all Russia that it is a very costly prize, not worth the effort. Indeed, whatever the territory taken, it is burned to the ground/

By contrast, the EU has shown it can be bullied. Russia can send drones through NATO airspace and there will be no response. Russia can run sabotage and assassination operations in Europe and there will be no response. Russia can do cyber attacks and there will be no response 4/

The NATO countries and the EU are not ready to be fast and furious in their reaction to Russian bullying. They are not ready to innovate at the speed Russia does. So, Putin will continue to test them, by action 5/

At this point, Russia might very well believe that some of the NATO countries might be an easier target than Ukraine. If this is true, Europe is in trouble 6/

My take is that once the war is over, Russia will regroup and start harassing other countries, not Ukraine. And that’s the real conflict of interest between the West and Ukraine.

So, what NATO and the EU should do is to prepare for that time. Now. 7X

Here’s Tatarigami’s take on Mylovanov’s assessment:

To clarify, I don’t suggest that it’s an intentional strategy to prevent RU invasion into NATO. I’m simply noting that NATO is unlikely to face a direct invasion while Russia is bogged down in Ukraine – mainly because Ukraine hasn’t received enough support to win decisively.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 14, 2024

Not permitted because, let me check my notes, Ukraine doesn’t have the intelligence capability to target the launch site without NATO help and that’s a redline and could have political impacts of escalation

Even though they know exactly where the launch site is, it is well… https://t.co/RlbCxRQztP

— Malcontent News (@MalcontentmentT) September 14, 2024

Not permitted because, let me check my notes, Ukraine doesn’t have the intelligence capability to target the launch site without NATO help and that’s a redline and could have political impacts of escalation

Even though they know exactly where the launch site is, it is well within range of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, and Ukraine has launched hundreds of Storm Shadow and SCALP-E missiles already

But yes, do tell me about how Ukraine is incapable of using this advanced technology that was, let me check my notes, developed before Intel publicly released the first i586 Pentium processor

Baby, wake up new @freeonis_ animation just dropped https://t.co/dsMMAz0lYE

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 14, 2024

Meet Dracarys:

New dragon drones in service with #UAarmy work against russian treeline positions.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/0wXsvuX41y

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 14, 2024

Odesa:

Ballistics explosions in Odesa as the air raid siren goes off‼️

The last two nights have been Shahid attacks and now the russian terrorists are using ballistic missiles.

But hey, at least no one has crossed putin’s red lines…

— Jesse C. | Джессі К. | .ישי ק 🇺🇲🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@jesse_c_6) September 14, 2024

Kharkiv:

At this late hour, with the city under curfew and residents sheltering in their homes, russian troops are launching aerial bombs on Kharkiv! Three explosions have been reported across the city!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 14, 2024

Several explosions shook Kharkiv just a few minutes ago‼️The city is under the russian glide bomb attack

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 14, 2024

The coolest way to bring together military and civilians? Naturally, in Kharkiv! 😉 Radio Khartia, broadcasting straight from a van, is the true essence of Kharkiv—resilient, vibrant, and artistic. And the cherry on top? @serhiy_zhadan as the presenter pic.twitter.com/7DAvnbg0ig

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 14, 2024

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Video of the Russian attack in the Kursk region. 14 AFVs were used by Russians. 5 BMDs, 1 tank and 1 BTR were destroyed during the attack.https://t.co/ZepVeUZm49 pic.twitter.com/5I64UQf2Uf

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 14, 2024

Captured Russian BTR-82. Kursk region. https://t.co/IrDiENuIib pic.twitter.com/4wPbfR3hmx

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 14, 2024

Destroyed Russian pontoon crossings. Seym river, Kursk region. https://t.co/zek06fYePy pic.twitter.com/PcS71pxUCO

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 14, 2024

Ukraine has reportedly opened a new front in the Kursk offensive and is advancing pic.twitter.com/HyOUh7pkfL

— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) September 14, 2024

A Russian T-90M after being hit by a tiny AFU FPV drone somewhere in the #Kursk AO. If you look close enough, you can see that even the “Nakidka” infrared, thermal, and radar band absorbent material (ITRAM) on the the gun is on fire. This is what corruption gets you… flammable… pic.twitter.com/Nq5psxFxfv

— OSINT (Uri Kikaski) 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 (@UKikaski) September 14, 2024

A Russian T-90M after being hit by a tiny AFU FPV drone somewhere in the #Kursk AO. If you look close enough, you can see that even the “Nakidka” infrared, thermal, and radar band absorbent material (ITRAM) on the the gun is on fire. This is what corruption gets you… flammable armor covered in flammable camouflage and RAM.

I have added a reference image of a T-90 covered in Nakidka ITRAM for reference.

Good news from Russia…
At least 4 733 Russian officers have been eliminated in Ukraine since 24 February 2022.
100 Colonels reached.
Weekly update: +43 newly registered.
Each name is confirmed by a Russian source via funeral notices, obituaries, graves etc. pic.twitter.com/UiduC6snH3

— KIU ✪ Russian Officers killed in Ukraine 🇨🇿🇺🇦 (@KilledInUkraine) September 14, 2024

Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

***BREAKING***

Likely response to #Ukrainian air threats, possibly news that Storm Shadow may be used on Russian territory.#Russian Navy vessels appear to have completed evacuated Novorossiysk today.

This follows a similar drill on September 11 2024 #OSINT pic.twitter.com/Y38CuKAViQ

— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) September 14, 2024

Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia:

One of the best things about Russia is how often they negligently set their own stuff on fire. https://t.co/QaD2N2Imyt

— Tom Warner (@warnerta) September 14, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD

Happy Caturday!

📷: @KpsZSU pic.twitter.com/LRIssN71Qe

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 14, 2024

And here’s the full video that Patron previewed yesterday:

There’s a couple of new Pes Patron cartoons I missed being published, so I’ll post those over the next few days.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 934: 103 More Ukrainian POWs and Detainees Returned Home TodayPost + Comments (22)

War for Ukraine Day 933: 49 More Russian POWs and Detainees Have Been Returned Home

by Adam L Silverman| September 13, 20248:26 pm| 10 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Three quick housekeeping notes. First, despite the monsoons, Rosie is doing great! Ruby had to see the vet today just to check on something and she is doing great too! Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, we have made it to Friday!

Third, welcome to new commenter Art, who left a great comment to WED’s night’s thread many hours after we all had moved on. I let you out of moderation as soon as I saw the alert and you are now free to comment as much or little as you like.

It’s 6;40 PM EDT/1:43 AM local time in Ukraine and air raid alerts are up for all of eastern and central Ukraine. There’s no indication on the alert maps of Russian strategic aviation being aloft, so once again we’re most likely looking at drone swarms.

Today the Ukrainians were able to bring 49 more POWs and detainees home from Russian captivity.

At home 🇺🇦

Today, 49 of our people returned to Ukraine from Russian captivity.

Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, National Guard, State Border Guard Service, National Police and civilians are finally back home.

Glory to Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/LLYfgKhRqL

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 13, 2024

Another return of our people – something we always wait for and work tirelessly to achieve.

Forty-nine Ukrainians are now home. These include warriors from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the National Police, the State Border Guard Service, and our civilians.… pic.twitter.com/mD5z7zyIvs

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 13, 2024

Another return of our people – something we always wait for and work tirelessly to achieve.

Forty-nine Ukrainians are now home. These include warriors from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the National Police, the State Border Guard Service, and our civilians. Among them is Leniye Umerova, a young woman taken hostage by the Russians when she came to take care of her sick father. More defenders of Azovstal have also been freed. Viktor Ivchuk, a military medic and Hero of Ukraine, is also back home.

I want to thank our entire team that works to secure the release of prisoners and hostages from Russian captivity. I especially want to acknowledge each of our Ukrainian units that contribute to replenishing the “exchange fund” for our country. All our warriors who capture Russian occupiers, and all our services that neutralize Russian saboteurs and collaborators, bring closer the liberation of our people. We must bring home every single one of our people, both military and civilian.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Imprisoned by Russia on false charges of espionage when she tried to return to her homeland, which Russia has illegally occupied since 2014, to care for her sick father. https://t.co/cmglKMOTm0

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) September 13, 2024

Coming home.

49 Ukrainians, men and women, men and women, including Azovstal defenders, were released from Russian captivity today.

It’s the 56th prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia, but Russian propagandists, including in the West, somehow try to pretend Ukraine “doesn’t… pic.twitter.com/RoATIyAHTT

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 13, 2024

Coming home.

49 Ukrainians, men and women, men and women, including Azovstal defenders, were released from Russian captivity today.

It’s the 56th prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia, but Russian propagandists, including in the West, somehow try to pretend Ukraine “doesn’t care about its people”.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

In Total, We Have Managed to Return 3569 Ukrainians from Captivity – Address by the President

13 September 2024 – 20:31

Dear Ukrainians!

First of all – our gratitude to our warriors, combat units, which replenish the exchange fund for our state. In different directions. Also, to our special services, which counteract saboteurs and collaborators. Thanks to this work, representatives of Ukraine and our exchange team are able to free our people from Russian captivity. Today there was another exchange. Another 49 Ukrainians are back home. Among them are both military personnel and civilians. Warriors of the Armed Forces, our border guards, the National Guard, in particular, the defenders of Azovstal, and two police officers. Among our civilians is Leniye Umerova, a young woman who was captured by the Russians in Crimea while on her way to visit her sick father. The Hero of Ukraine, military medic Viktor Ivchuk, was also returned. I thank our entire team engaged in the exchanges. All those who are involved and whose work ensures all this: the Armed Forces, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Head of the Office, the Ombudsman. Thank you! In total, we have managed to return 3569 Ukrainians from captivity.

Today has also been a very active day for our international communications. The annual Yalta European Strategy Forum has started its work, and it is important for Ukraine that our arguments on long-range weapons and all defense cooperation with partners are heard. On the sidelines of the Forum, I met with the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania and Poland. I thanked them for their support. I also spoke with the President of the Munich Security Conference, which is one of the most influential foreign and security policy platforms in Europe. I also met with Mike Pompeo, the former U.S. Secretary of State. Boris Johnson, one of Ukraine’s greatest friends, was also at the Forum. I thanked him for his unwavering support since 2022. Today I also met with the Minister of Defense of Denmark. It was a very informative meeting. Denmark is the first country, with which we have started the joint production of weapons. And these weapons are already helping on the frontline. We produce Bohdanas together. Of course, we also talked about other aspects of our cooperation, including the F-16s. Denmark is indeed one of the leaders in supporting our defense industry. I thank Mette, Madam Prime Minister, and all the Danish people. Today, together with the First Lady of Ukraine, we met with Michael Douglas, a well-known actor and a caring person. He helps us a lot to keep the attention on the truth about the war and helps UNITED24. We thanked him for this today.

And one more thing.

A report has just been made by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported today. The main priority is weapons for our warriors in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk directions, in all Donetsk directions, and along the entire frontline. This includes the issue of delivery and the issue of production, both in Ukraine and together with partners. The task is to strengthen our positions as much as possible and put maximum pressure on Russia. We can end this war fairly only from a position of strength. We are doing everything for that. Everything.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also addressed the 20th Annual Yalta European Strategy Meeting today. Video below followed by the English transcript.

The War Must Become Significantly Harder for Russia – President’s Speech at the Opening of the 20th Annual Yalta European Strategy Meeting

13 September 2024 – 15:25

Слава Україні!

Dear participants of this year’s Yalta European Strategy meeting!

Dear friends of Ukraine!

Thank you for the invitation! I’m glad to welcome you all to Ukraine today – and for many of you not for the first time. And it is extremely important in a time of war like this – to be in Ukraine, to be with our defenders, defenders of Ukraine, with all our people – people who are going through the hardest thing that could ever happen – a full-scale war. I’m grateful to all of you for being with Ukraine.

But it is also important for all of us to have the same understanding of what it means to be with Ukraine. It’s not just about presence. It is not just about an emotional connection to our state, to Ukrainians, to our battle for independence.

Yesterday, the Russian army carried out one of its many attacks on Ukraine. It was an artillery strike. It hit the village of Viroliubivka in the Donetsk region.

The Russians saw where they were hitting. The trucks of the International Committee of the Red Cross were burned. Two people were wounded in this strike. Unfortunately, three people were killed. My condolences. They were employees of the humanitarian mission – their lives were taken by Russian artillery. And it is disappointing, deeply disappointing, to see that the Red Cross, in its official communication, was afraid to even say that this was a Russian strike. This is our reality. But this is their face… And it’s not just the truth – it was a Russian strike, Russian terror. Yesterday, the Russian army conducted an equally blatant strike. A Russian missile hit a civilian vessel in the Black Sea, I think it took place near Romanian waters already. It was a bulk carrier transporting wheat. The port of destination was in Egypt. And it was just luck that none of the crew was killed by that missile. And there was no reaction from Egypt, no reaction at all, even though it is their food security. But this is how Russia treats Egypt, food security, and free navigation – it treats it like a typical terrorist. As long as there are double standards in the realm of morality, Putin may continue to seek something other than peace.

We are now in the third year of this full-scale war. And after so much killing and destruction in Ukraine, after so many Russian war crimes, after so many terrorist strikes, Putin can still afford to destroy life in Ukraine as he pleases, can buy and produce missiles, bombs and artillery, can even afford to issue ultimatums to the world. And he expects the world to give in to his madness.

It is the third year of the war, and Putin still believes that it is he to whom concessions must be made. Why is that?

These days, there have been very important meetings with our partners, and there have been important guests in Ukraine. In particular, representatives of the US and the UK.

Of course, we cannot fully disclose the content of closed negotiations between our partners and us. But I would like to share my feelings.

Now in Ukraine, as in many other countries, the school year has started. Children are going to school. In Ukraine, we really want as many children as possible to learn not online, but together with other children, in a normal school atmosphere, where they acquire not only knowledge but also social skills, communication skills and life skills. For this, we need air defense systems, primarily Patriots, which are available in sufficient quantities globally and which we have long been expecting from our partners.

And when you say at important closed meetings with partners that we need air defense, it is difficult, really difficult to hear the same answer every time – “we are working on it.” Russian missiles and Iranian-supplied “Shaheds,” unfortunately, are also “working”, but they are working in our skies and against our people. And Putin doesn’t need any permissions or approvals for long-range strikes.

You have all heard, many have seen, and some have even experienced firsthand how difficult it is now on the frontline everywhere, especially in the Donetsk region. Near Pokrovsk, first of all. Our heroic warriors are there – I would like us to support them, applaud them, thank them for their feat – they are really strong people, very strong. We all understand that they need reinforcement. This means equipped and ready-to-fight units, enough not only to hold their positions but to reclaim them.

We have been talking with our partners for months about this – about equipping our brigades. I’m grateful to all the leaders and states that have made responsible commitments and are actually fulfilling them on time. But frankly, we are still far from fully implementing what we have agreed on a long time ago.

And when you remind of this during negotiations, it is very difficult to hear – “we are working on it” – again. While this is being said, Putin is burning down our cities and villages – that’s what he’s working on. And he doesn’t need any approvals. Putin interprets delays in helping us and in making strong decisions for Ukraine as permission to do everything he is doing, to do whatever he wants.

And regarding the long-range capability for Ukraine.

Anyone who simply sees on a map where Russia strikes from on a daily basis, where Russia trains its forces and keeps reserves, where it locates military facilities and what logistics it uses – anyone who sees all this, clearly understands why Ukraine needs long-range capability.

By the way, we discussed this in detail with Antony Blinken and David Lammy, the US Secretary of State and the British Foreign Secretary, who were recently in Kyiv. I hope that after our conversation, there simply cannot be any unanswered questions about why Ukraine needs sufficient long-range capability.

I want to highlight once again: sufficient. Sufficient not to simply say that there is a decision, but to really change the course of the war and make Russia seek peace. And we are really counting on our partners, hoping for results from our partners. At least, we are working on it.

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

When we think about how to end the war, we must realize absolutely clearly that it is we who need it – not Putin. He does not want to end anything. He feels comfortable sending people to their deaths, controlling his people through television, and enjoying life in his bubble. Unfortunately, Putin and his inner circle have not been tangibly affected by the war so far. Yet. Yet. But Putin and his cronies must feel all the problems that war brings. And this means that the war must become significantly more difficult for Russia. Only then can Russia be forced to understand that the war will have to end. And it must end fairly – on the basis of international law. This requires strong decisions from the world. And each of you knows what they are.

When we hear that new missiles have arrived in Russia from Iran, it is the same evil that the allies have already had to shoot down in the skies of the Middle East. Now, the markings of the missiles may be different, but not Iran’s terrorist motive behind the proliferation and use of these weapons. If the allies are jointly shooting down missiles and drones in the skies over the Middle East, why is there still no similar decision to jointly shoot down Russian missiles and Iranian “Shaheds” over Ukraine? And this isn’t being done even when missiles and drones are heading towards the territory of our neighbors.

And when we raise this issue with our partners, which we do constantly, to be honest, everyone tries to talk around it… They’re even afraid to say, “we are working on it.” They’re afraid even of those words. That’s the truth.

So far, only Belarus was noticed for shooting down Russian “Shaheds.” I couldn’t imagine it would be that way… I think this is truly humiliating for the strong democratic world.

We and our partners know exactly all the spots where Russia is gathering forces for strikes. All of them. We know where Russian air defense is located. If any of our partners don’t know, we can share this information. Everyone knows where Russian missile launchers are being deployed, and what logistics routes are critical for the Russian occupation forces. All of this can be destroyed in a matter of months. Let me remind you that the war has been going on for 10 years, and the full-scale one for almost three. So, what is lacking to bring it to an end? Strength? Decisions? Or the will to do so?

Why can Putin keep his own weapons production at a maximum? He gets critical components. In the Russian missiles that hit our cities and villages on a daily basis, we see components from all over the world – America, Europe, Taiwan etc. Chains of such supplies to Russia still exist. And it turns out that it is cheaper for Putin to continue his terror than for us to defend ourselves against it. The logistics of weapons in Russia and the sites for Russian strikes are, unfortunately, still beyond the reach of our defenders, our defensive strikes. We have effective drones. But drones cannot do what missiles are supposed to. And even artillery – Putin can get more than enough and relatively cheap from North Korea. Meanwhile, for Ukraine, every defense package is an achievement.

Why am I talking so much about the details on weapons right now? In fact, these are details about forcing Russia into peace. Putin does not understand anything else. Only the things that strengthen Ukraine’s position. Only what makes the situation worse for Russia. Only the fact that the partners are actually taking the necessary steps, and not promising to consider what steps are needed from meeting to meeting, as if it is still not clear for someone.

Of course, we are at war, and in such conditions it is impossible to plan a completely unchanged schedule. But this month, I have a meeting with President Biden planned. I will present him with the Victory Plan. A system of interconnected decisions that will give Ukraine sufficient strength – enough strength to put this war on a course to peace.

Wars of aggression such as Russia’s war against Ukraine can end fairly in several ways – either the occupying army is pushed out or diplomacy ensures that the country’s real independence is preserved and it is freed from occupation. In both cases, Ukraine needs a strong position. The United States can help with this. If we, along with our key partner, equally strive for victory. The Victory Package that I’ll present to the President of the United States can pave the way for a lasting peace – for the full implementation of the Peace Formula. Unfortunately, there are still illusions in the world that it’s possible to talk to Moscow or draw some new red lines that will eventually make Moscow softer and inclined toward reconciliation. But without illusions, if we all want to one day hear the words – “peace has finally come, a just peace in Ukraine” – then we must hear now – “Ukraine has become powerful enough – powerful enough to win.” That will be the true guarantee of peace.

And it depends not only on us. In many ways, it depends on the world – on you, dear friends.

I thank all Ukrainians for their courage! I am grateful to each of our partners who are really doing everything to make Ukraine strong and to ensure that our country wins.

And I want to be able to thank the leaders of the world for the key thing – for the kind of help that will make Ukraine’s victory inevitable. Only in this way will the desire to seek real peace reach Putin’s bubble.

Thank you for your attention!

Слава Україні!

The cost:

Загинув сисадмін із MobiDev харків’янин Павло Чаркін, 1994 р.н.
загинув 4 вересня біля н.п. Суджа в Курській обл., був командиром мінометного взводу, ст.офіцером мінометної батареї штурмового батальйону 92-ї бригади.
Мобілізувався до ЗСУ на початку повномасштабної війни. pic.twitter.com/bDz2cFuZi5

— Сергій Погребецький (@pogrebeckij) September 12, 2024

Here’s the machine translation:

Pavlo Charkin, a MobiDev sysadmin from Kharkiv, born in 1994, died.
died on September 4 near the village of Suzha in the Kursk region, was the commander of a mortar platoon, senior officer of the mortar battery of the assault battalion of the 92nd brigade.
He was mobilized to the Armed Forces at the beginning of a full-scale war.

Yesterday, my son Matityahu (Anton) was laid to rest… Friends, I am grateful to each of you, I have received tens of thousands of words of sympathy and support. I read each and every one of them. Your warm words, coming from the heart, fill me with confidence in our victory… pic.twitter.com/facwa1EVNP

— Chief Rabbi Of Ukraine Moshe Azman (@RabbiUkraine) September 13, 2024

Yesterday, my son Matityahu (Anton) was laid to rest… Friends, I am grateful to each of you, I have received tens of thousands of words of sympathy and support. I read each and every one of them. Your warm words, coming from the heart, fill me with confidence in our victory over evil.

Because evil is limited, its essence is to kill, destroy, and annihilate. And goodness is infinite, it means loving, building, nurturing, helping.

I am sure that together we will dispel this evil and it will disappear!

Friends, we are launching a fundraising campaign to honour the memory of the hero Matityahu, whose life was dedicated to caring for others. This house will become a living manifestation of his love and compassion, giving warmth and support to those who have been left homeless and without hope by the war – refugees, the elderly, widows and orphans: https://charidy.com/msc ‼️Every donation you make will be matched by our friends “Yael Fondation”

Glory to G-d!
Glory to Ukraine!

The reason:

“Pray, Mom, I will be home. I had a dream.”

A Ukrainian lady freed from Russian captivity shared her first emotions after returning home.

📹: Ombudsman of Ukraine https://t.co/0I0Np8U2ID pic.twitter.com/rwKOzL18Wf

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 13, 2024

Among the Ukrainians released from Russian captivity today is Crimean Tatar activist Leniie Umerova. She was captured by Russians when she tried to enter occupied Crimea through Georgia to visit her sick father. In Russia, she was accused of “espionage.”

📹: Suspilne https://t.co/0I0Np8U2ID pic.twitter.com/Qk1OqnerSl

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 13, 2024

Ukrainian Defender is finally able to hug his family after Russian captivity. They waited for that for 2,5 years.

In the end of the video, he’s showing a drawing his sister made him. He managed to keep it while in captivity.

📹: Ombudsman of Ukraine https://t.co/0I0Np8TuT5 pic.twitter.com/3KiKBzlipM

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 13, 2024

Finland:

Finland announced the 25th military aid package for Ukraine valued at EUR 118 million.

The total value of the defense material delivered by Finland to Ukraine is now EUR 2.3 billion.

We are grateful to our Finnish partners for their unwavering support!
Together, we are… pic.twitter.com/g4yvkfFEhT

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 13, 2024

Finland announced the 25th military aid package for Ukraine valued at EUR 118 million.

The total value of the defense material delivered by Finland to Ukraine is now EUR 2.3 billion.

We are grateful to our Finnish partners for their unwavering support!
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇫🇮
@DefenceFinland

Denmark:

Held an important meeting with the delegation led by the Minister of Defense of Denmark, @troelslundp.

I thanked the government and people of Denmark for their faith in the victory of Ukraine and their significant contribution to our fight against the aggressor.

Denmark… pic.twitter.com/KO7K3vfsgr

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) September 13, 2024

Held an important meeting with the delegation led by the Minister of Defense of Denmark, @troelslundp.

I thanked the government and people of Denmark for their faith in the victory of Ukraine and their significant contribution to our fight against the aggressor.

Denmark became the first country to invest in the development of Ukraine’s defense industry—we call it the “Danish model.” Denmark directly financed more than 50 million euros for Ukrainian equipment production.

We discussed the dynamics on the battlefield, the enemy’s plans, and our immediate needs.

Every day, the russian aviation makes about 200 combat missions and launches up to 150 bombs. To stop russian air superiority, we need to strengthen air defense and achieve air superiority. Denmark plays a key role in this by training our pilots and by providing F-16 aircraft, which have already proven their effectiveness.

I am grateful to Denmark for its constant support and am confident that our cooperation will help ensure a free future for Ukraine and Europe.

Poland:

⚡ Polish FM Sikorski: “As the West, we should continue to deliver Ukraine advanced air defense systems, and also, in our opinion, lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons.”pic.twitter.com/urpl7cDQ6j

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) September 13, 2024

The US:

Harris/Walz starting to specifically reach out to Ukrainian and other Eastern European communities who may be worried about Putin and even their overseas relatives’ well-beinghttps://t.co/VNgIBeZzc1

— Nick Field (@nick_field90) September 13, 2024

US Presidential candidate, Harris is launching pro-Ukraine ads in key U.S. states.

The campaign is focused on undecided voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where a significant segment of the population has Eastern European roots. pic.twitter.com/HiYYUKsf7U

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) September 13, 2024

⚡️Harris would be ‘more aggressive’ than Biden in supporting Ukraine, ex-US ambassador says.

President Biden has done “a great job” of assembling and maintaining a coalition of partners but has been “slow to make some decisions,” said William B. Taylor.https://t.co/X05o6BrjFB

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 12, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

Democratic candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will be “more aggressive” in supporting Ukraine than U.S. President Joe Biden if she wins the November election, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William B. Taylor said on Sept. 12.

“She will have the ability to be even stronger if she wants to. And my bet is she’s going to be a little more aggressive than President Biden,” Taylor said at a meeting at the American University Kyiv attended by the Kyiv Independent’s journalist.

The meeting with Taylor occurred shortly after the first debate between Harris and Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, on Sept. 10.

During the debate, Trump refused to say that he wanted Ukraine to win the war and dodged a question as to whether a Ukrainian victory was in the United States’ best interests. Harris, in response, accused Trump of giving up on Ukraine.

Taylor highlighted that Harris “clearly supports” Ukraine and will continue to do so “until it prevails.”

The former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine also said that Biden has done “a great job” of assembling and maintaining a coalition of partners but has been “slow to make some decisions.”

“He was slow to make some decisions about HIMARS, Abrams, and F-16s, and now he is slow to make decisions about attacking deep into Russia,” Taylor said, adding that despite the slow pace, his decisions were correct.

Harris has already shown in some issues that she is “more aggressive” than Biden, according to Taylor.

The former ambassador also noted that if Harris wins the presidential election, she will likely bring a new team to the White House.

“If she’s elected, she will have a new secretary of state, probably a new national security advisor. She has the opportunity to bring in people who are even more supportive of Ukraine or not. My bet is they will be more supportive,” Taylor said.

Harris became the presumptive nominee after Biden dropped out of the race in July and now has a chance of becoming the first female U.S. president in history.

Harris will take on Trump in the general election scheduled for Nov. 5, running alongside her vice presidential running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

Unfortunately, also the US:

Biden is calling on Congress to include an extension for delivering $5.8 billion in Ukraine aid as part of the stop-gap funding measure, another priority added to the urgency of avoiding a govt shutdownhttps://t.co/UcvDJ5Yr0V

— Laura Kelly (@HelloLauraKelly) September 13, 2024

.@JakeSullivan46 is invited to Kharkiv to try to explain to people who are currently hiding from both russian drones and glide bombs why exactly we can’t defend ourselves. pic.twitter.com/n28F5IWjgF

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 13, 2024

From The Hill:

The Biden administration has requested Congress to include an extension of the presidential drawdown authority (PDA) for sending weapons to Ukraine through 2025, to make approximately $5.8 billion available beyond Sept. 30.

The White House has requested the extension be included in a continuing resolution House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has proposed. The money faces a use-it-or-lose-it deadline at the end of this month.

“We have $5.9 billion left in Ukraine Presidential Drawdown Authority; all but $100 million of which will expire at the end of the fiscal year,” said Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, in an email to The Hill.

“The Department will continue to provide drawdown packages in the near future and is working with Congress to seek an extension of PDA authorities beyond the end of the fiscal year.”

The Biden administration has used the drawdown authority to deliver weapons quickly to Ukraine directly through Department of Defense stocks. The funds appropriated by Congress relate to the valuation of the military equipment donated to Ukraine, and the dollars used to backfill U.S. supplies.

The measure allows the Pentagon to ship out older military equipment and refill stocks with newer equipment. But assistance to Ukraine is often doled out in batches of hundreds of millions of dollars to avoid emptying Pentagon stocks and account for the time to backfill.

Earlier this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced $250 million in military assistance for Ukraine by using the authority — providing air defense missiles and support, munitions for rocket systems and artillery, anti-tank weapons, Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and other armored vehicles, among other items.

Getting Congress to extend the PDA for the $5.8 billion will allow the White House to continue dispatching to Ukraine military assistance in small batches a few times a month.

A congressional aide told The Hill that absent the extension, the Biden administration could announce it is providing $5.8 billion in military assistance to Ukraine before Oct. 1, and then use the rest of the year to send over the equipment — but that this is a less attractive option.

There may be some legal challenges to allocating the $5.8 billion at once, the aide explained, with lawyers for the administration concerned that there may not be an authority to permit transfers of munitions that are not currently in stock, or considered in surplus.

Extending the authority is unlikely to face opposition in the stop-gap funding measure, but Johnson’s pathway to passing the bill is fraught, thanks in part to former President Trump insisting on legislation requiring proof of citizenship for voting — a move that Democrats have said is a nonstarter. Noncitizens are already barred from voting in federal elections.

“This major problem for managing the support for Ukraine is one of the many unnecessary casualties of the political gamesmanship on the CR playing out right now,” the congressional aide said.

This is no way to run a superpower. Hell, this is no way to run a failed state like, for instance, Mississippi.

Even worse in the US:

Moreover, Putin will bomb a supermarket, or a theater, or a hospital, or a school, in Victoria Spartz’s hometown in Chernihiv, but you know, priorities.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 13, 2024

And DC:

Accidentally telling the truth! Red lines for allies, safe zones for enemies. From Israel to Ukraine, Hamas/Iran to Russia, the US is afraid of victories that change the status quo. This only lets the Axis powers change it to their advantage. https://t.co/t1Ii1Cc4He

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) September 13, 2024

Oopsie!

I believe that’s what’s called a Kinsley gaffe.

🧵The White House’s John Kirby lowered expectations for a decision on permission for Ukraine to use western provided munitions for long range strikes into Russia coming out of POTUS meeting with UK PM today: I “would not expect there to be any announcements on this coming out of…

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) September 13, 2024

🧵The White House’s John Kirby lowered expectations for a decision on permission for Ukraine to use western provided munitions for long range strikes into Russia coming out of POTUS meeting with UK PM today: I “would not expect there to be any announcements on this coming out of the meeting today. There’s been no change to our policy…with respect to the long-range strike capability inside Russia, and I’d leave it at that.”

Oy vey.

CNN has more on the Russian political warfare and influence operations being run through RT:

👀A key finding from the new US intelligence is that, for more than a year, the Russian government has quietly embedded an intelligence-gathering unit within RT that is focused on influence operations globally 👀https://t.co/XsjyaCe9uy

— Peter Jukes (@peterjukes) September 13, 2024

The Biden administration on Friday announced a major effort to blunt the global influence of RT and expose what it says is the Russian state media network’s key role in the Kremlin’s global intelligence and influence operations.

The State Department revealed declassified US intelligence findings that suggest RT is fully integrated into Russia’s intelligence operations around the world and announced it is launching a diplomatic campaign to provide countries with information about the risks associated with RT activities.

“Thanks to new information, much of which originates from RT employees, we know that RT possessed cyber capabilities and engaged in covert information and influence operations and military procurement,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday.

A key finding from the new US intelligence is that, for more than a year, the Russian government quietly embedded an intelligence-gathering unit within RT focused on influence operations globally. That activity has been part of US officials described as a big expansion of RT’s role as an arm and mouthpiece of the Kremlin abroad. The activity goes beyond propaganda and covert influence operations to even include military procurement, according to US officials.

“Under the cover of RT, information produced through this unit flows to Russian intelligence services, Russian media outlets, Russian mercenary groups, and other state and proxy arms of the Russian government,” Blinken said.

In addition to its covert influence operations, the leaders of RT also administered an online crowdfunding effort to supply military equipment to Russian soldiers in Ukraine, Blinken alleged.

The crowdfunding effort supplied “sniper rifles, suppressors, body armor, night vision equipment, drones, radio equipment, personal weapon sights, diesel generators” to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, according to Blinken.

The goal of the US announcement — and private discussions with allied diplomats — is to make sure that countries know that RT and Russian intelligence agencies are working together to sow division and harm democratic processes, while simultaneously making it much more difficult for RT to operate globally, a senior administration official said.

CNN first reported on the pending State Department announcement.

Asked for comment by CNN, RT responded with a mocking email that read in part: “We’ve been broadcasting straight out of the KGB headquarters all this time.”

CNN has requested comment from the Russian Embassy in Washington, DC.

Friday’s news is part of a full-fledged US government effort to curb RT’s global clout. It comes just a week after federal prosecutors announced criminal charges against two RT employees for covertly funneling nearly $10 million into a US company to create and amplify content that aligned with Russian interests. The covert influence campaign was aimed at the American public ahead of the 2024 US presidential election, US officials said.

US diplomats are looking to the coming days and weeks – including the UN General Assembly gathering – to build a coalition of countries willing to combat the threat that US officials see from RT.

Formerly known as Russia Today, RT runs television and online platforms around the world that advance the Kremlin’s agenda. The US Department of Justice forced RT America to register as a foreign agent in 2017 after US intelligence officials concluded that the media outlet contributed to Russian efforts to meddle in the 2016 election.

The US believes RT propaganda and disinformation has been key to generating pro-Russia reactions to the Ukraine war globally, a senior administration official told CNN.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, RT was banned in the European Union, and in the US the channel is not publicly broadcast. But in Latin American and Sub-Saharan Africa RT broadcasts have been expanding.

RT’s broadcasts have had a “deleterious effect on the views of the rest of the world about a war [in Ukraine] that should be an open-and-shut case,” James Rubin, the coordinator for the department’s Global Engagement Center, told reporters after Blinken’s remarks.

RT’s embrace of covert activities is a response to the restrictions on the outlet’s presence in some Western countries, according to US officials. A separate scheme hatched by RT, US prosecutors said in July, involved running a network of over 1,000 social media accounts that posed as US residents to spread anti-Ukraine propaganda. The Kremlin financed the scheme and an officer of Russia’s FSB intelligence service helped run the operation, the Justice Department claimed.

It was not immediately clear on Friday whether the Russian intelligence unit embedded within RT described by State Department officials was still active. “I can’t answer that,” Rubin said.

More at the link.

The former Russian Foreign Minister from 1990 to 1996:

If rewarded in Ukraine, Putin will attack the NATO Baltic states, convinced of NATO’s impotence and cowardice, long before 🇺🇦 could receive any guarantees from NATO. His target is not part or even all of 🇺🇦, but rather the humiliation and discrediting of the US and NATO.

— Andrei V Kozyrev (@andreivkozyrev) September 13, 2024

The 2014 and 2022 Russian invasions have driven Ukraine’s already dire demographic crisis to catastrophic levels. Birth rates are among the lowest in the world, while death rate is the highest. Despite enduring horrific human losses during World War I, the Holodomor, and World… https://t.co/Bh8oz34hbG

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 13, 2024

The 2014 and 2022 Russian invasions have driven Ukraine’s already dire demographic crisis to catastrophic levels. Birth rates are among the lowest in the world, while death rate is the highest. Despite enduring horrific human losses during World War I, the Holodomor, and World War II, Ukraine managed to survive and emerge independent – remarkable resilience. Today, tens of millions of Ukrainians have been displaced, cities reduced to rubble, and millions more are being pushed into poverty. This is Europe’s worst humanitarian tragedy of the 21st century.

Despite the incredible resilience of the Ukrainian people and their heroic resistance against one of the world’s largest military forces, the collapse of the country and the erasure of its nationhood is a real possibility. Many pro-Ukraine advocates in the West seem to ignore this grim reality, believing Ukraine can hold out indefinitely. Yet, its population has nearly halved, its industry is in ruins, and people are fighting on, impoverished, for the basic right not to be assimilated or exiled to remote corners of Russia.

Either Russia’s ambitions are stopped in Ukraine, allowing the country to quickly rebuild like many post-war nations in Europe and Asia, or Ukraine succumbs to becoming a buffer zone between East and West. In the latter scenario, its occupied territories would be plundered, and its population relocated to replenish Russia’s human losses: at the cost of Ukraine’s future.

EuroMaidan Press has the details:

According to recent reports from The World Factbook, Ukraine is facing a severe demographic crisis, with the highest death rate and lowest birth rate in the world.

The data reveals that Ukraine’s death rate stands at 18.6 per 1,000 people, the highest globally. For comparison, Lithuania, the second-highest, has a death rate of 15.02 per 1,000 people, followed by Serbia at 14.9. Russia’s death rate stands at 14 per 1,000 while at the other end of the spectrum, Qatar has the lowest death rate at 1.4 per 1,000 people.

Simultaneously, Ukraine’s birth rate is the world’s lowest at 6 births per 1,000 people. The French territory of Saint Pierre and Miquelon is second-lowest with 6.4 births per 1,000 people. Niger leads the world in birth rate with 46.6 births per 1,000 people.

The situation in Ukraine has worsened in recent years. In the first half of 2024, Ukraine recorded 87,655 births, a 9% decrease from the same period last year. During this time, there were 250,972 deaths, meaning for every newborn, there were three deaths. This ratio has deteriorated from 2:1 in 2018-2020 before the full-scale war.

Regional disparities are evident, with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Kyiv registering the highest numbers of both births and deaths. Frontline regions are particularly affected, with Kherson Oblast recording only 221 births in the first half of 2024.

The Ministry of Health reports that birth rates in Ukraine have been declining by approximately 7% annually since 2014, when Russia attacked Ukraine. The situation further deteriorated after the 2022 full-scale invasion. For perspective, in the first half of 2021, Ukraine recorded 132,595 births, 1.5 times higher than current figures.

These stark demographics paint a concerning picture of Ukraine’s future, impacting its economy, social services, and national development and potentially raising the question of the overall sustainability of the Ukrainian nation. The ongoing Russian war against Ukraine exacerbates these trends.

Not sure where in Ukraine this is, but it gives new meaning to the order “make it hot!”

Sivalka-VM8 is 🇺🇦-made flamethrower system.
It can be installed on any wheeled vehicle and effectively destroys the enemy with its thermobaric rockets. pic.twitter.com/m3OzwAJnuc

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 13, 2024

Kyiv:

Very cool.

By @flyua_kyiv (TikTok) pic.twitter.com/hLtDxo7Pxi

— Pekka Kallioniemi (@P_Kallioniemi) September 13, 2024

Kharkiv:

Russian drone over Kharkiv right now ‼️ air raid alert in the city.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 13, 2024

🕯🇺🇦A memorial plaque to combat medic and Hero of Ukraine Vladyslav Tytarenko unveiled on September 13, 2024, in #Kharkiv on the wall of the hospital where he worked.

He was killed by a Russian air strike on Kruhlyakivka near #Kupiansk on August 5, 2023.

Vladyslav died at the… pic.twitter.com/tqenyb1HBQ

— Denys from Kharkiv (@GlushkoDenys) September 13, 2024

🕯🇺🇦A memorial plaque to combat medic and Hero of Ukraine Vladyslav Tytarenko unveiled on September 13, 2024, in #Kharkiv on the wall of the hospital where he worked.

He was killed by a Russian air strike on Kruhlyakivka near #Kupiansk on August 5, 2023.

Vladyslav died at the age of 28, a month short of his birthday. He was buried on the Alley of Glory in Kharkiv. This year, the combat medic was awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously.

📷 Kharkiv National Medical University, Suspilne Kharkiv, Oksana Tytarenko

Kherson:

Once a lively city of 300,000, the southern Ukrainian city Kherson is now a ghost town, with Russians now using small drones to hunt individual civilians in random killings, the streets are abandoned. pic.twitter.com/G2nOMrQLyM

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) September 13, 2024

For you drone and rocket launcher enthusiasts:

💥 Successful test of the world’s first rocket launcher drone

The Bulava drone unit of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky installed a rocket launcher on the Queen Hornet FPV drone and conducted a successful test.

From now on, an ordinary rocket… pic.twitter.com/AAkaHgcS7z

— Wild Hornets (@wilendhornets) September 13, 2024

💥 Successful test of the world’s first rocket launcher drone

The Bulava drone unit of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky installed a rocket launcher on the Queen Hornet FPV drone and conducted a successful test.

From now on, an ordinary rocket launcher can work at a distance of 5+ km. This opens up new opportunities for the military.

We can’t tell you any other details yet, except that we will continue to work in this direction in collaboration with Bulava with the goal of going into mass production to help our military.

If you want to participate in the creation of new types of weapons for the elimination of ruzzia, you can do so by donating any amount:

💲 PayPal: [email protected]

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Ukrainian warriors destroyed the russian no-analogue “Zemledelie” remote mining system near the Seym river. The detonation was truly epic.

📹: 413th UAS Battalion pic.twitter.com/oND63ZUn3u

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 13, 2024

Ukraine succesful taken back Obukhovka in Kursk Region with minimal losses, but we lost one M113 on a mine, unfortunately I don’t know the fate of the crew 😢.

— ✙ 🔼Constantine 🔼✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) September 13, 2024

/2. Direction of a new breakthrough pic.twitter.com/mGHkmQ3dd9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 13, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Це сталось! Якщо зайти на мій канал в YouTube (Patron The Dog), або тицьнувши на посилання в шапці профілю – можна побачити першу серію «На краю Світів». Це новий мультсеріал від фей мультиків, який розповідає захопливу історію сімʼї Коваленко. Вони отримали спадок від прабабусі, якої ніколи не бачили. І цей спадок — дуже чудернацький будиночок на краю далекого села у Запорізькій області. І коли вони приїхали — то побачили такееее…👻 Без спойлерів!

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

It happened! If you go to my YouTube channel (Patron The Dog) or click on the link in my profile header, you can see the first episode of “At the Edge of the Worlds”. It’s a new animated series from the cartoon fairies that tells the fascinating story of the Kovalenko family. They received an inheritance from their great-grandmother, whom they had never met. And this inheritance is a very strange house on the edge of a distant village in the Zaporizhzhia region. And when they arrived, they saw this… 👻 No spoilers!

And here’s the trailer video. I’ll post the full one tomorrow night (got to make sure I don’t run out of content…).

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 933: 49 More Russian POWs and Detainees Have Been Returned HomePost + Comments (10)

War for Ukraine Day 932: Russia Attacks a Turkish Operated Transport Vessel In the Black Sea

by Adam L Silverman| September 12, 20248:32 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great, but she’d like the daily/multi-times a day thunder monsoons would stop. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, why is it still not Friday?

Third, I want to make an additional point above the fold. The strategic incoherence, inconsistency, and malpractice we’ve spent the past 31 months watching Biden’s senior natsec appointees demonstrate in regard to Ukraine and the past 11 months in regard to Israel, Hamas, and Gaza is because this natsec team was not put together to deal with any of this. They were put together to repair the foreign policy and national security damage created by Trump and his team of misfits, oddballs, amateurs, and weirdos. A lot of them were people that President Biden had worked with for decades, in some cases their whole careers were the result of working for and/or with him when he was in the Senate and/or the vice president. Others had been the junior to mid-level Obama appointees and their next stop were the senior level appointments in the next Democratic administration regardless of which Democrat was elected. There’s a club. They’re all in on that the major, ongoing threat to the US is a form of great power competition with the PRC. Which is why all of the US’s strategic documents give the PRC pride of place as an ever emerging threat despite the actual reality of the ongoing, enduring threats from Russia and the never ending, and unlikely to end in my lifetime, destructive volatility of the entire Middle East. A fair amount of which we’re responsible for because of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney’s stupid idea to invade Iraq in 2003.

What this team was not put together to do was serve as the senior natsec staff for a major, and frankly genocidal, interstate war in Europe, which is part of Russia’s ongoing world war against the US, the EU, and NATO, as well as Bibi Netanyahu’s megalomaniacal narcissism, his extremist coalition, Yahya Sinwar’s nihilism, and Hamas. Personnel is policy and these personnel were put into place to do something else. They are the wrong makes, models, and types to manage what the US and our allies and partners are currently facing and will continue to face for years to come. The result is that Putin and Russia, Bibi and his extremist partners, and Sinwar continually wrong foot the US. President Biden’s failure was not in appointing these people, they are all eminently qualified. His failure was not replacing them with the right makes, models, and types to handle the crises the US is currently and will continue to face.

President Zelenskyy and First Lady Zelenska both addressed the Fourth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen today. Video of First Lady Zelenska’s address is below followed after the jump by the video and English transcript of President Zelenskyy’s address.

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Children’s Safety Is Everyone’s Concern Today – President’s Speech at the Fourth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen

12 September 2024 – 19:54

Dear First Ladies and Gentlemen!

Dear Guests!

Ladies and Gentlemen!

First of all, I want to thank all of you, the First Lady of Ukraine, and all participants and guests of this Summit. Thank you for this productive day, for this extremely important event. Thank you for coming to Ukraine during these challenging times and for standing with us as we overcome them together. Now and in the past years, over the course of which this global platform has proven that it is a necessary venue where important voices from around the world are heard, an effective platform where crucial solutions are found and then implemented. It brings more protection to life and more justice to the world.

Thanks to your activity, dialogue and initiatives, and the fact that you act today as true ambassadors of the bright side of history, promoters of human values, and ambassadors of life.

And I congratulate all of you on holding this year’s Summit, the fourth one already. Despite the war, all the challenges, threats, and difficulties, Ukraine once again brings together First Ladies and Gentlemen from around the world. This is very important. We must not shy away from challenges but overcome them, we must not look away from threats. We must address difficult and pressing issues, seek out answers, and find them. We must keep the world’s attention on Ukraine and ensure the world does not forget, because it’s not just Ukraine under attack today, but the values of freedom and life globally. This year’s topic is children’s safety.

It’s hard to imagine two more polar, more opposite concepts than “war” and “children.” Unfortunately, in today’s world, there are those who have chosen the former – war. Aggressors, dictators – whatever you call them – they have chosen destruction over development. Ruthless and constant violations of children’s rights instead of protecting and caring for future generations.

This is the most painful aspect of war. The fact that children are the most vulnerable during war is not just words. It’s a fact. Nothing tugs at the heart more or sounds more terrifying than a child saying, “I’m scared.”

You can rebuild destroyed homes, restore the economy, rebuild infrastructure capacities, and clear territories scattered with enemy mines – you can do all that. But how do you give back a stolen childhood? Is there a “compensation mechanism” for taking away children’s peace and safety?

Recently, I was told a story. It was about a conversation between our warriors in a trench on the frontline. An experienced fighter who has been defending Ukraine since the very beginning of the occupation in 2014 praised his brother-in-arms for his bravery. They had just returned from a combat mission. Then he expressed regret that they hadn’t met earlier, as those qualities would have been very useful. He asked, “Where were you in 2015?” The brother-in-arms replied, “In 10th grade.”

I think this story is a tragedy. It’s reality. And I think there are many such stories among us: on the front lines, in civilian life. Unfortunately, far too many, because of this war that Putin has brought. Yesterday’s children are today’s warriors, defending their homeland and sacrificing their lives.

Some were in school, some had just entered university, and each of them had their childhood, youth, and part of their life stolen.

This is what happens if evil is not put in its place immediately. This is what happens when the world spends years thinking about red lines and searching for diplomatic solutions in dealing with those who have been undiplomatically killing, burning, and raping for years. For years, annexing, waging wars, and fighting them for as long as they need. And they will continue doing so. As long as the world is asleep. As long as some pretend to care. As long as some believe in the narrative that Putin is fighting Nazism in Ukraine or neo-Nazis of some kind. Which Nazis exactly? Today, in Kyiv, we are saying goodbye to our warrior, a fallen Ukrainian defender, the son of Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi, Moshe Azman. I want to express my condolences to him and to all those who have lost loved ones. Today, war affects everyone. It affects all of us in Ukraine, in Europe, and around the world. All of us: men, women, our parents, but above all, our children.

Ten days ago, Ukraine celebrated Knowledge Day – the start of the new school year. But the war has brought completely different kinds of knowledge to our country and our children. Knowledge that no child on this planet should have. Going to the first lesson to the sound of sirens, learning not just language, history, and math but also short routes to the bomb shelter, adapting to online education, adapting to studying in another country, in another language. This is difficult, too.

And the worst thing is not seeing your mother or father, when our families are separated because of a full-scale war that has been going on for almost three years. Our children born after February 24th have already learned to walk. They’ve already learned to speak. Unfortunately, war has taught them words like “alarm,” “attack,” “missiles,” “shelling,” “strikes,” “danger.”

These are challenges not meant for children. And that’s why today, our children ask questions of grown-ups: “Is it flying again?” “When can we go outside?” “Was that a hit or our air defense?” “When will dad come home?” “Why doesn’t God punish and take away this Putin?” And the most important question: “When will this war end?”

And this question comes from every child in Ukraine, from every single one. And it is a question for all of us, for all the adults on Earth. And it requires honest answers. It requires that we all be honest, especially with ourselves.

Because it’s easy to condemn a Russian missile hitting our school. But it’s not so easy to admit that the missile might contain parts made in America, Europe, Asia, or any other part of the world. There is a saying, “The devil is in the details.” Unfortunately, the example of these missiles proves this, in every sense of the phrase.

How is this possible? Why is this possible? And while it may be hard to admit, is it really that hard to fix, to stop, to resolve?

This Summit, in particular, and all the efforts of Ukraine and our allies in general, prove that the safety of children today concerns all of us: each and every one of us.

It should unite us, and it is uniting everyone today, regardless of any political levels. Leaders of nations, First Ladies and Gentlemen, international organizations and institutions, active, brave, and caring people from around the world. In general – adults, who must overcome challenges not meant for children.

Ukraine is determined to solve this issue. Ukraine knows the answers to all these questions. We offer our solutions to the world. Our Peace Formula, our victory plan, the Peace Summit – all contain just answers for a just end to the war. This is what should happen when the one who has encroached on the safety of children is held accountable for their actions, and when repeating such crimes in the future becomes impossible.

So that children in Ukraine and all over the world can have a happy childhood, so that loved ones are nearby, and families are not torn apart by this shameful war Russia has brought. So that the world never again sees pictures of a child’s room hit by a shell or a child being pulled out of the rubble after a missile strike. This war, and all wars, must become a thing of the past. This war, and all wars, must become a thing of the past.

Ukraine strives for this. Ukraine unites the world for this. Ukraine and the world must achieve this.

Once again, I thank all of you for organizing this Summit, for participating, for coming to Ukraine, and for fighting with us. We will surely win. We must.

Thank you for your attention!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

У Центральній синагозі Києва попрощалися з Матітьягу Самборським — сином головного рабина України, який загинув на фронті.

Прощальні слова сказали його батько, головний рабин України Моше Асман, інші родичі та посол Ізраїлю в Україні Михайло Бродський. pic.twitter.com/oofQcMekxo

— Радіо Свобода (@radiosvoboda) September 12, 2024

Here’s the (machine) translation:

In the Central Synagogue of Kyiv, they said goodbye to Matityagu Samborsky, the son of the chief rabbi of Ukraine, who died at the front.

Farewell words were said by his father, the chief rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Asman, other relatives and the ambassador of Israel to Ukraine Mykhailo Brodskyi.

Matityahu Samborskyi, son of the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Azman, died defending Ukraine. On September 12, his funeral took place in the central synagogue of Kyiv.

The rabbi shared that he and his wife adopted Matityahu in 2002. At that time, he was 11 years old and had the… pic.twitter.com/pbizT26dTq

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 12, 2024

Matityahu Samborskyi, son of the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Azman, died defending Ukraine. On September 12, his funeral took place in the central synagogue of Kyiv.

The rabbi shared that he and his wife adopted Matityahu in 2002. At that time, he was 11 years old and had the name Anton. The new family gave him a Jewish name – Matityahu. In May of this year, the Defender’s daughter was born.

Eternal memory and eternal glory to Ukrainian Hero.

📷: Suspilne

May his memory be a blessing.

Lithuania:

Another round of M113 armored vehicles & SUVs from our Lithuanian friends.
We are grateful for your unwavering support!
Together until Victory!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/E8nMDnqZnr

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 12, 2024

Romania:

I had a fruitful phone conversation with the Minister of National Defense of Romania, @AngelTilvar.

The main topic is strengthening Ukrainian skies’ protection from russian missiles and drones.

Ukraine will soon receive a new Patriot air defense system from our Romanian…

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) September 12, 2024

I had a fruitful phone conversation with the Minister of National Defense of Romania, @AngelTilvar.

The main topic is strengthening Ukrainian skies’ protection from russian missiles and drones.

Ukraine will soon receive a new Patriot air defense system from our Romanian partners.

There will also be more F-16s in Ukrainian skies. A group of our pilots is already undergoing training in Romania.

I thanked my Romanian colleague, people, and government for supporting and strengthening our air defense.

We agreed to continue cooperation.

Together, to victory! 🇺🇦🇷🇴

Turkey:

Russian missile against a wheat cargo bound for Egypt. Tonight, Russia launched a strike on an ordinary civilian vessel in the Black Sea right after it left Ukrainian territorial waters. Fortunately, there were no casualties, according to preliminary reports.

Ukraine is one of… pic.twitter.com/nNCqNDVfJV

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 12, 2024

Russian missile against a wheat cargo bound for Egypt. Tonight, Russia launched a strike on an ordinary civilian vessel in the Black Sea right after it left Ukrainian territorial waters. Fortunately, there were no casualties, according to preliminary reports.

Ukraine is one of the key global food security guarantors. Domestic stability and normal life in dozens of countries around the world are dependent on the normal and unhindered operation of our food expert corridor.

Ukraine’s food deliveries to African and Middle Eastern countries are critical. We will continue to make every effort to safeguard our ports, the Black Sea, and food exports to global markets. This is Ukraine’s true priority—to protect life—and it should be the priority of all countries.

We are waiting for the world to react. Wheat and food security should never be targets for missiles.

Bulk carrier “Aya”, struck by a Russian missile earlier, now has a Romanian military/SAR plus another Romanian SAR vessel assisting it. https://t.co/T25brO5lkG pic.twitter.com/7xGcyXVNqw

— Andy Scollick (@Andy_Scollick) September 12, 2024

Now watch Erdogan taking revenge.

Unlike Scholz and Biden, Erdogan knows that putin will fold instantly if confronted militarily. https://t.co/WYLIpoOsrE

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) September 12, 2024

Naval News has the details:

A Turkish operated merchant vessel, the MV Aya, has been hit by a Russian Kh-22 missile launched by a Tu-22M Backfire bomber. The Belize-owned, St. Kitts & Nevis flagged ship was sailing from the port of Chornomorsk, carrying 26,550 tons of grain for Egypt.

According to people familiar with the incident, the ship was hit by the missile at around 23:05 on September 11, 75km (46 miles) south of Snake Island. This places it in Romanian EEZ.

The Kh-22 missile, known by the NATO reporting name AS-4 Kitchen, is a very large anti-ship missile. It flies at Mach 4.6 (5,600 km/h; 3,500 mph) and carries a 1,000 kg (2,205 lb) warhead. This makes it much larger, and harder hitting, than Harpoon or Exocet class missiles. The missile was launched from a Russian Tu-22M Backfire bomber. Only Russia operates this aircraft or missile.

The missile was developed during the Cold War to attack aircraft carriers and other high-value targets. While old, it remains formidable. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine Russia has employed it against ground targets, including Snake Island.

Modern merchant ships have proven very resilient to missiles, although the risk to the vessel and crew remains high. Context is everything. This is demonstrated by the Houthi Movement who have struck a number of vessels with ballistic missiles in the Red Sea, resulting in broadly similar damage.

More at the link.

It is this strategic incoherence and repeatedly demonstrated hesitance and cowardice that empowers Putin.

The list of things russia struck today include: a Red Cross vehicle, a wheat shipment bound for Egypt, the home of an 86-year-old woman in Borova, along with other houses and civilians there, and an apartment building in Konotop.

The list goes on, growing every day. The pressing…

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

The list of things russia struck today include: a Red Cross vehicle, a wheat shipment bound for Egypt, the home of an 86-year-old woman in Borova, along with other houses and civilians there, and an apartment building in Konotop.

The list goes on, growing every day. The pressing question remains: When will the world finally muster the courage to help us stop these terrorists?

Perfectly fair to raise escalation risks. My view: yes there is risk of Russian backlash to Ukr deep strikes with Western weapons. But 1/ there are costs to Russia enjoying blanket sanctuary on its soil & 2/ Ru attack on NATO risks full-scale war & risk of worse outcome for Ru. https://t.co/A43OtbZhCt

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 12, 2024

Russia has increased pressure on West for last 18 months via sabotage & subversion in Europe. Partly but not wholly an effort to coerce end to Ukr aid & deter escalation of aid. Ru response to deep strikes surely likelier to be intensification of this campaign, not direct attack.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 12, 2024

Putin, like the Russian leaders before him with the exception, perhaps, of Gorbachev, look for weakness and then exploit it wherever it is found.

Russia wouldn’t stand a chance.
Which is why they would not do this.

As Kennan said back in ‘47, the “towers of the Kremlin cast long shadows that move the hearts & sway the deeds of statesmen” “rather than the substance of things.”

Don’t fall for Putin’s BS bluff. https://t.co/2KZV49viZS

— Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦 (@bctallis) September 12, 2024

Kennan’s Long Telegram is still prescient and spot on.

The Black Sea:

Last flight of the russian Su-30SM jet.

A video released by @DI_Ukraine shows the destruction of a russian plane over the Black Sea. The cost of an aircraft is $50 million. pic.twitter.com/mtH3eC6JcS

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 12, 2024

Russian Su-30SM was downed from MANPADS during one of the operations in the Black Sea, official statement from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine:

“During the operation in the waters of the Black Sea, the soldiers of the special unit of the Main Directorate of… https://t.co/tF8PmAxbxt pic.twitter.com/JPsoiPND78

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 12, 2024

Russian Su-30SM was downed from MANPADS during one of the operations in the Black Sea, official statement from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine:

“During the operation in the waters of the Black Sea, the soldiers of the special unit of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine destroyed a Russian Su-30SM combat aircraft with a MANPADS hit.

The fighter that fell into the sea belonged to the 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, which is based at the airfield of the city of Saki in the temporarily occupied Crimea.

The Russians lost contact with their battleship on September 11, 2024 around 5 am. Roughly three hours later, Russians launched a search and rescue operation involving the An-26 aircraft, as well as Mi-8 and Ka-27 helicopters.

At lunchtime, Russians reported to the command about a characteristic stain from aviation fuel discovered in the sea, 70 kilometers northwest of Cape Tarkhankut, and soon they also saw the wreckage of the destroyed Su-30SM.”

https://t.me/DIUkraine/4406

Kharkiv:

With two glide bombs.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 12, 2024

Earlier today, russia struck Kharkiv with glide bombs, destroying or damaging 15 households. https://t.co/YPtAi1jdNG pic.twitter.com/e73kcbXMVm

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

Borova, Kharkiv Oblast:

Rescuers have freed an 86-year-old woman from the rubble of a residential building in Borova, Kharkiv region, that was hit by a russians tonight.

The injured woman has been hospitalized, according to the State Emergency Service pic.twitter.com/SObjtzEMzf

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

Konotop, Sumy Oblast:

14 people were injured in last night’s russian attack on an apartment building Konotop, Sumy region. https://t.co/4sjcyHuF8S pic.twitter.com/5zqOU6aKgx

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

Kreminna:

The combat operations of the Azov brigade in the Kreminna direction from a first-hand perspective.
Our warriors are performing truly heroic missions. pic.twitter.com/iMzNbJkAXz

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 11, 2024

Pokrovsk:

❗️Pokrovsk was left without gas and water.

A filtration station ceased operating due to combat, and it’s impossible to get it working again. Drinking water is brought to people.

Russian troops also destroyed a gas distribution station.

Today, Russians destroyed a bridge… pic.twitter.com/Umd7htGDEY

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 12, 2024

❗️Pokrovsk was left without gas and water.

A filtration station ceased operating due to combat, and it’s impossible to get it working again. Drinking water is brought to people.

Russian troops also destroyed a gas distribution station.

Today, Russians destroyed a bridge between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

People continue evacuating from a city to which a war has approached.

Virolyubivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Three citizens of Ukraine, employees of the ICRC, were killed and two injured in artillery shelling by the Russian Federation on the village of Virolyubivka in Donetsk region!

The @ICRC must officially recognize Russia’s violation of the norms of the Geneva Conventions! pic.twitter.com/ovyqQU8EL3

— Dmytro Lubinets (@lubinetzs) September 12, 2024

I don’t even know why the Red Cross refuses to name the aggressor, who killed 3 of their staff in Ukraine today. Out of fear to lose the access to prisoners of war held in russia, who they never visited anyway? Spineless cowards https://t.co/D54uXi4jHR

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

Speaking of cowardice, the ICRC has not covered itself in glory in Ukraine. Nor in Gaza. Nor Sudan. Nor anywhere else lately.

Not quite sure where in Ukraine this is:

46th Brigade of Ukraine repulsed the biggest assault on the Brigades position. 46 units of Russian AFVs were used in the assault:

“On September 12, Russians attacked with four waves of assaults from 5:45 a.m. to noon on the positions of the battalions of 46th Brigade. A total… pic.twitter.com/2isXk2j665

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 12, 2024

46th Brigade of Ukraine repulsed the biggest assault on the Brigades position. 46 units of Russian AFVs were used in the assault:

“On September 12, Russians attacked with four waves of assaults from 5:45 a.m. to noon on the positions of the battalions of 46th Brigade. A total of 46 units of armored and not so armored vehicles fell on us.

And the record was set! Such a number of destroyed and damaged enemy equipment in one day in the direction of responsibility of the 46th Brigade has never really happened. With effective fire from all available means of destruction 15 units (9 BMPs, 2 tanks, 2 APCs and 2 motorcycles) were destroyed and 11 BMPs were disabled.”

https://t.me/oaembr46/1012

The Kursk cross border offensive:

So after five weeks, Russia has launched its counteroffensive in Kursk. Key takeaways:

– Ukrainian troops made early gains, but it was always a question of when and what reserves Russia would deploy.
– Kursk showcases Ukraine’s ability to effectively wear down Russian forces.
-… pic.twitter.com/MiM17AwC12

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 12, 2024

So after five weeks, Russia has launched its counteroffensive in Kursk. Key takeaways:

– Ukrainian troops made early gains, but it was always a question of when and what reserves Russia would deploy.
– Kursk showcases Ukraine’s ability to effectively wear down Russian forces.
– Ukrainian forces are experiencing increased pressure as Russia brings in more reinforcements.
– Cross-border raids will likely continue to be effective for exposing weak points in Russian defenses.
– It’s too early to make a clear assessment of how large or fast the Russian counteroffensive might be.

After the loud announcement of the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the news from the Russian side has died down. The Russian Defense Ministry reports “the destruction of 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers,” but there is no video, no photos, no statements about regaining
1/11

control over major settlements. Putin gave the order to recapture the Kursk region by October 1, but the counteroffensive is stalling. Ukrainian soldiers write in Telegram that heavy fighting is underway, not without losses, but the counterattack was expected and
2/11

the Russians were expected. Russia has now switched from bombing to frontal attacks, which allows for greater resource losses. Ukraine expected and prepared for this step and to inflict serious damage on the advancing troops. Apparently, Syrskyi plan has begun to work and
3/11

Russia has transferred resources to the Kursk region and will transfer more to fulfill Putin’s decree. If this becomes a priority for the Russian army, then we can expect a decrease in the intensity of Russia’s offensive in the Donetsk region. The offensive on Pokrovsk has
4/11

already started to stall, but this is compared to August. Russia is still storming there every day and there are very difficult battles. Autumn has come and soon it will be more difficult to conduct military operations. Especially to conduct an offensive. If Russia does
5/11

not recapture the Kursk region before the rains start, it will be more difficult for it to do so. It will be even more difficult to do so if Ukraine starts to strike deep into Russia. Apparently, Great Britain is lifting restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow deep into
6/11

Russian territory and there is talk of the United States making the same decision. Most likely, the missiles supplied will have a range of about 250 kilometers, because this is an export version, but within this radius there are many juicy targets for Ukrainian missiles.
7/11

Logistics, airfields in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, troop columns – this is only a small list of targets that Ukraine can hit first. If talk of lifting restrictions turns out to be true, it will be another problem added to the huge list of difficulties
8/11

in Russia. The red lines are over, the nuclear scarecrow does not work, the economy is at the limit and is about to collapse, resources are depleted. The equipment is running out, but there are still people. But in 2 years there is no longer a professional army and the army
9/11

consists of cripples, alcoholics, criminals and old men with conscripts. But this army also causes colossal damage. It is precisely because of this composition that it has no morality and leaves behind a trail of war crimes and scorched earth. Although the “professional
10/11

army” in Russia is not much different from this. But the crisis in the Russian army and management is growing. This is a downward spiral that cannot be stopped and sooner or later Russia will fall into a free fall to the bottom.
11/11

More detailed video of the destruction of the Russian Zemledelie remote mine-laying system by the 78th Separate Battalion of Ukraine. https://t.co/BXfozemur8 https://t.co/ZPdUiB0lqL pic.twitter.com/yaWhm4ovwL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 12, 2024

Captured Russian T-72B3M obr.2022, somewhere in the Kursk region. https://t.co/UbmqDKDpH7 pic.twitter.com/QC2ezd5ded

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 12, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Don’t hang your nose!
All will be great.

📷: 117th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/UTZaTnPcBd

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 12, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

❤️

♬ som original – vih_a.r

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 932: Russia Attacks a Turkish Operated Transport Vessel In the Black SeaPost + Comments (31)

frosty on Wednesday Night Open Thread (Sep 19, 2024 @ 1:06am)

cckids on Wednesday Night Open Thread (Sep 19, 2024 @ 1:02am)

Trivia Man on Wednesday Night Open Thread (Sep 19, 2024 @ 12:51am)

Jackie on Wednesday Night Open Thread (Sep 19, 2024 @ 12:43am)

Mart on Wednesday Night Open Thread (Sep 19, 2024 @ 12:43am)

It looks like winning debates is a black job!

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Second rate reporter says what?

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

The current Supreme Court is a rogue court. Very dangerous.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Fight them, without becoming them!

Republicans would impeach Biden if he bit into a whole Kit Kat rather than breaking the sections apart.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

The choice is between normal and crazy.

War for Ukraine Day 938: Ukraine Reaches Out and Touches Something 500 KM into Russia

Strike on an ammunition warehouse in Toropka

Our Plan for Victory Is Already Fully Prepared; the Most Important Thing Now Is the Determination to Implement It – Address by the President

War for Ukraine Day 937: Ukraine Is Not Getting Authorization to Use Long Range Weapons Any Time Soon

A Good, Strong Content of the Military Package for Our Victory Plan Has Been Prepared – Address by the President

War for Ukraine Day 936: A Brief Monday Night Update

Next Week, We Are Preparing to Present the Victory Plan to Our Allies – President’s Address

War for Ukraine Day 935: Russia Bombarded Kharkiv with Glide Bombs Again Today

We Have Already Explained to All Our Partners Why Ukraine Truly Needs Sufficient Long-Range Capabilities – Address by the President

War for Ukraine Day 934: 103 More Ukrainian POWs and Detainees Returned Home Today

We Are Putting Pressure on Russia and Doing Everything to Make the War Felt There, Where It Was Brought to Ukraine from — Address by the President

War for Ukraine Day 933: 49 More Russian POWs and Detainees Have Been Returned Home

In Total, We Have Managed to Return 3569 Ukrainians from Captivity – Address by the President

The War Must Become Significantly Harder for Russia – President’s Speech at the Opening of the 20th Annual Yalta European Strategy Meeting

War for Ukraine Day 932: Russia Attacks a Turkish Operated Transport Vessel In the Black Sea

Children’s Safety Is Everyone’s Concern Today – President’s Speech at the Fourth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen