A new AP Poll has Bush’s overall approval rating holding steady (albeit extremely low), but approval for specific job performance continuing to wane:
Americans’ approval of President Bush’s handling of Iraq is at its lowest level yet, according to an AP-Ipsos poll that also found fewer than half now think he’s honest.
A solid majority still see Bush as a strong and likable leader, though the president’s confidence is seen as arrogance by a growing number.
Approval of Bush’s handling of Iraq, which had been hovering in the low- to mid-40s most of the year, dipped to 38 percent. Midwesterners and young women and men with a high school education or less were most likely to abandon Bush on his handling of Iraq in the last six months.
From the Ap-Ipsos site, these graphs (which I have cut and shrunk- and I am still messing around with images on this new site design, so if the width of these images causes you problems, let me know):
Good thing there is still time before the ’06 elections, and it is something else to keep in mind when discussing the Hackett/Schmidt post-mortem.
*** Update ***
Gerry Daly discusses the new methodolgy employed in this poll. Also, don’t forget to check out all these graphs and charts at Pollkatz.
Otto Man
I know. If Bush keeps going at this pace, he should be able to plunge it into the 30s by then.
Blue Neponset
How is it possible that almost 2/3rds of those polled think Bush is a strong and likable leader if 1/2 of those polled don’t think he is honest?
Am I naive to expect a stong and likable leader to be an honest one?
rilkefan
damn, otto stole my post.
I like the charts up at http://www.pollkatz.com, in particular this one with confidence intervals indicated.
Defense Guy
Americans generally do not trust our politicians, often for good reason. I like that about us, and do not expect it to change.
Stormy70
So, we over sample Democrats and publish? Ok.
Blue Neponset
So, we over sample Democrats and publish? Ok.
The old ‘I don’t like the poll results so the poll must be biased’ trick. I have seen that way too often in the last year.
Do you have any proof that Democrats were oversampled?
Brad R.
Bush is just not a popular president. He gets a boost for brief periods when something big happens with national security (9/11), Iraq (the start of the Iraq war, Saddam’s capture), or big-stage PR events (the RNC last August), but he is not a popular or even likeable president.
In fact, I’ll take it a step farther: if not for 9/11, I don’t think Bush would’ve won a second term.
Rick
It’s a death spiral, I say! I think Shrub’s reelection chances in ’08 are headed towards zero. I could embroider further on the thesis, but for that, I want to be a dKos diarist.
Cordially…
Stormy70
Read the updated information. What did polls get us at the last election, but one big fat headache. Still sick of polls that track approval for this, that and the kitchen sink. Of course, if they bolster my point of view, then I will use them, just like every other person on this board. I call it Dueling Polls, and everyone can play.
Stormy70
I don’t think I’ll vote for Bush in 2008, though. I’ll have to shop around, play the field, so to speak.
Ken Hahn
I’d like to see how many of those disapproval numbers come from those who are to the right of Bush. I think there are a lot of conservative Republicans who see Bush as a wishy-washy, basically “moderate” President. They are not leaning toward the Democrats, but to more conservative Republicans.
BinkyBoy
Yes, Stormy, a graph showing a consistant slide of his poll numbers only proves that its been consistant in its oversampling of Democrats. Thanks for pointing that out, as I’ve always been one to get all starry eyed over pretty colors and historical data that supports all previous data.
KC
John says there’s still time to turn this all around. My question is turn what around? I’m seeing a lot of spending, a lot more taxcuts, just a lot more of the same fiscal irresponsibility that we’ve been seeing. What’s more, I’m also seeing (doesn’t mean it will happen) a fake-out pullout in 2006 of Iraq. Don’t get me wrong, if we pullout, I won’t be too upset, we’re having recruiting problems after all. I’ll just be a little miffed at the fact that we went in then didn’t get the “job” done before leaving. Then again, I guess it’s likely the administration will proclaim victory before pulling troops out. We’ll all live happily ever after knowing that Iran has just picked up more territory in the Middle East.
Rome Again
I didn’t realize he was going to go for a third term, will he try to win a fourth as well and best Franklin Roosevelt by actually staying alive long enough to see the end of it?
Isn’t there some sort of legislation that has to be removed for him to seek a third term now? While I don’t know the specifics of it, I’m sure there is.
Rome Again
Well, at least your honest about it.
I don’t trust any polls, not even the ones that make my side look like it’s winning. I also won’t use them even “if they bolster my point of view”.
When Bush is out of office before the end of his term, I’ll know that America finally figured it out, until then, no matter what the polls say, we’re stuck with him.
Rome Again
I agree with this, but 2/3rds thinking he’s strong and likeable while not trusting him sounds like cognitive dissonance to me. How can someone like an untrustworthy person? Isn’t he the person many people said they’d like to have a beer with (even if he is a former alcoholic who shouldn’t be taking a drink?), yet they don’t trust him, hmmmmm. I’m confused.
mac Buckets
Is any poll sillier by nature than a poll of popularity for a second-term President?
Brian
Yeah, he’s not getting elected again, but when Congress sees that Bush doesn’t have any more juice, it’s every rat for itself. Lame Duck. I imagine it will also have some impact on the elections 2006.
Rome Again
I think you’re already seeing that with Frist coming out in favor of certain types of Stem Cell Research which go against the White House position.
BinkyBoy
Don’t forget their push against his veto of the highway bill. Its getting more and more evident that being against Bush is a more popular place than being with him. Hopefully that trend continues at a more and more rapid pace.
mac Buckets
Nah, Frist would’ve done that even if Bush’s popularity was at 100%.
Barry
John,
I just wanted to mention that the graphs looked great. Considering how hard it is to make graphs look good on websites, I figured you deserve the slap on the back.
[now, where’s that free beer?]
Barry
Bob
“Blue Neponset Says: How is it possible that almost 2/3rds of those polled think Bush is a strong and likable leader if 1/2 of those polled don’t think he is honest?”
This stuff made from African tree bark will help me lose weight? I’ll buy two bottles!
Stormy70
The poll is flawed.