The latest polling in California shows Boxer at 39%, Carly at 34% and 22% undecided.
Seems a little tight given the quality of the candidates, and I’m not buying that 1/5 of the population of that state doesn’t know who they’re going to vote for, given that Boxer’s a well-know quantity and Fiorina isn’t exactly a nobody.
geg6
Sorry to go OT so early in a thread, but I just saw some stunning truth-telling on the Today Show where Chuckie T just called Andrew Breitbart “the conservative propagandist.”. Stopped me right in my tracks, I gotta say. Seems, despite all previous evidence to the contrary, our stenographers can learn. Amazing.
Lysana
This has probably been said before, but frankly, I don’t think the polls matter in CA. What will make the difference for Boxer and Fiorina is the same thing that will make the difference for Brown and Whitman. Population turnout at the polls. If the San Joaquin Valley, San Diego, and Nevada border counties have a better turnout than the LA and SF areas, kiss California goodbye. We’ll have installed a crappy CEO as governor.
Keith
And it’s an actual poll, too, and not “who has better hair”.
Ross Hershberger
I see what you did there. Now I want to listen to Bookends.
WereBear
@geg6: That’s pretty awesome.
Indie Tarheel
@geg6: Baby steps, indeed.
David in NY
This is the problem with “lack of enthusiasm” by Democrats. A lot of that 22% are probably Democrats who just don’t give a damn at the moment, given the economy and the administration’s lack of attention to its base. Maybe they’ll trudge out to the polls anyway, maybe not.
Davis X. Machina
The 22% have to figure out who their friends are voting for first.
Social signaling via choice in consumer goods, in this case, your politics. It’s how they got Schwartzenegger.
shortstop
Not to be all Eeyore, but Todd has made sense on previous occasions as well, and it didn’t stick. I suspect that what he’s “learned” is that he needs to keep his head low until people forget about the Sherrod incident and the MSM’s role in it. What we’re seeing isn’t Todd seeing the light but rather Todd, as usual, taking the path of least resistance.
Suffern ACE
When both candidates are well known, it might be safe to assume that indeed there are a lot of undecided Californians. Perhaps a lot of people like both candidates, or, just as possible, know about both candidates and don’t like either of them. I don’t know why that is hard to believe. Perhaps the two candidates share something in common that makes them hard to tell apart.
Bill H
Boxer at 39%, Carly at 34% and 22% “it’s none of your fucking business.”
or
Boxer at 39%, Carly at 34% and 22% “I don’t give a shit, they both suck.”
tatere
I can easily believe that a fifth of the voters have no idea. I’d believe that they wouldn’t be able to tell you even after they vote. “Oh, that one, you know, the little one.”
But in all fairness, California is just too big for only two Senators. I mean, how do you represent Humboldt, Contra Costa, San Francisco, Fresno, Orange County and Venice Beach? Other than trying to get more money for fire fighting, since we all seem to have burning in common. (Well, not SF. Yet. We get the tsunami research grants.)
mslarry
As a los angeles native, I don’t get that poll either. Boxer isn’t exactly a prize but Fiorina? Don’t people realize that once she wins and god forbid if Whitman wins too, they’ll outsource the entire state?
Things are so bad here that they’ve closed firehouses, state offices twice a week, libraries three times a week and the best part? In Ah-nold’s most recent budget, instead of taxing companies, he’d rather take money from poor children. I’m not kidding. He wants to get rid of a program that provides FOOD to poor kids. I can’t believe I’m quoting Glenn Beck, but I too “fear for my country.”
Tom Hilton
The Chron had an article about all these coal-mine owners contributing to Fiorina’s campaign; in order to get the Dick Armey vote in the primary, she completely abandoned her formerly not-insane position on climate change.
The piece had one of the stupidest quotes (from Fiorina) I’ve seen in a long time: “Terrorism kills, and Barbara Boxer is worried about the weather.” Two grafs later, the article mentions the blast in one of her contributors’ mines that killed 6 miners.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@shortstop:
Toddler has a bumper sticker on the back of his car that says WWDGD (What would David Gregory do?)
Alex
Modeling of “likely voters” is very difficult in off-year elections.
Also, both candidates are dopes. The 22% likely represents the apathy contingent of “undecided.”
The GOP candidates advertised widely in the primaries, while the Democratic Candidates ran unopposed and kept their powder dry. Turnout will be important, but most voters will probably vote Democratic, when it comes down to it.
Hal
As opposed to the crappy former “Actor?”
You would think CA would have learned by now to stay away from shiny Republicans offering Unicorns to “save” the state.
I left CA last year for NY in order to attend college. My out of state tuition in NY is still less than my instate tuition would have been in CA for a UC. But, I still want to go back in two or three years, so I’m praying Fiorina and Whitman go down in flames.
Brachiator
@Lysana:
This is not demographically possible unless LA and other counties have something like a 10% voter turnout and San Joaquin, etc. has something like an 80% plus turnout.
However, the continuing decline of the California economy may have some impact. Voters may wish to “punish” Boxer for not doing enough or just to get a fresh face in.
But the real campaigning has not begun. And when it does, I expect Boxer to pick up speed.
@mslarry:
It’s bad. It’s going to get worse. However, it is just insufficient to say that Ah-nold doesn’t want to tax companies. Businesses continue to shut down or downsize or leave the state. You can’t get tax revenue from an empty store front.
For the, what, umpteenth year in a row, Sacramento is late with the budget. And they still have no clue as to how to deal with a structural deficit of $20 billion plus.
Oh, and by the way, in the last budget deal, the Democrats agreed to a change in the way that corporations are taxed that would significantly reduce some corporate taxes (this has to do with apportionment formulas). It’s hard to know whether which Democrats were bought off and which were suckered by Republicans.
What’s worse is that both the Democrats and Republicans continue to posture, resorting to gimmicks to try to push hard decisions into the future, or hoping that a federal stimulus might give them some money to plug some of the holes.
Comrade Dread
I’d rather trade Feinstein in and keep Boxer for now.
Bob L
@mslarry: Whiteman I can see people thinking she’s something new, but Fionia? The woman destroyed a successful corporation and got the boot from the McCain campaign for her foot in mouth disease. Amazing the Republicans are willing to vote for her much less the independents.
bud
The fact that they’re both “known” explains the whole thing.
Boxer is an egotistical ass and Florina is a egotistical idiot.
The hard core left (39%) is going to hold their nose and vote for B, and the hard core right (34%) is going to hold their nose and vote for C.
22% of the population isn’t holding their noses, and having a hard time figuring out which one stinks less.
agorabum
I was talking to someone at work and needed them to add a few political words to a document.
Some of those included:
Glenn Beck
Sarah Palin
There was a lot of confusion when I asked those words to be included. I was asked if they were people or things. Then how to spell them. After the spelling was fixed, I was asked who they were.
Not everyone is a political junkie. There are plenty who think that all “politicians” are just crooks who only take care of the rich and/or themselves, and ignore the lot of them. And there are days that I can’t blame them.
BombIranForChrist
@David in NY:
Maybe I’m just projecting, but I agree with David. I think a big chunk of those people are Dems who want Boxer to know that they are pissed at a perceived lack of effort on the Dem’s part.
Jeff
@Lysana
San Diego went for Boxer in 2004, just ftr.
dj spellchecka
just saw a cali poll that had recalled ex-gov. gray with better numbers than “real” govenator ar-nald. buyer’s remorse is a b….
Michael57
Oh well. A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.
Batocchio
I’d like to see a more liberal primary challenger for Feinstein when it’s time, but Boxer has seemed pretty good to me on key issues, and her office is more responsive… Maybe folks who have been CA residents for longer can outline their discontent. (Although obviously Fiorina and Whitman would be horrible.)
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
It’s bad. It’s going to get worse. However, it is just insufficient to say that Ah-nold doesn’t want to tax companies. Businesses continue to shut down or downsize or leave the state. You can’t get tax revenue from an empty store front.
I own a small biz in nor cal and my building has a 75% vacancy rate. Some businesses are doing ok but many are troubled. I think many will vote their pocketbook, I just hope they understand that voting rethug will not help with that pocketbook. Not in the short term for sure and not long term either. So that’s the ballgame there. If you want to vote for the issues, or your pocketbook, there is only one choice. It may not be a good choice, but it is the better one.
@Comrade Dread:
Agreed. Feinstein is a DINO and needs to go. As senators go Boxer is not all that bad. Could be better but none of the current candidates come close.
CalD
Some of the comments under the Swing State Project post (linked above) are pretty funny. A couple of the commenters are apparently unaware that pollsters sometimes push undecideds and sometimes don’t. They suspect a conspiracy.