Greg Sargent has a good run-down of the reasons why Democrats want Dubya to play a starring role in November’s elections. In sum, it’s because voters hate George W. Bush.
I’m of the opinion that the Bush book will get some airtime right before the election and that this will hurt Republicans, though perhaps only slightly (without knowing what’s in the book, it’s hard to say exactly how much attention it will get). Steve M. takes a different view:
I wish the Bush book would have an impact before publication — but I worry that it’s just going to be part of a painful November for Democrats starting on Election Day, thanks to the media. Here’s the sequence:
* On November 2, Republicans gain seats in Congress — and the media will probably accept GOP spin and declare the results a resounding triumph for Republicans no matter how many seats Republicans pick up.
* Then, a week later, Bush begins his Vindication Memoir Tour. He’s mobbed by Republicans pumped up as a result of the previous week’s returns, and those results are the subject of many questions posed to him in interviews. (He’s smug and self-satisfied about the results because, yes, he does think they partly exonerate him.)
* Two weeks later, Sarah Palin’s new book is published — and that one is preceded by leaks that really are newsmaking, because, well, it’s Sarah Palin, and we think everything she does is news. Her book tour is, of course, like the Second Coming of Christ for her fans.
If I were a Republican strategist, I would not be happy to have Bush and Palin coming out with books at the same time. It plays into a “Palin is the heir to Bush’s throne” narrative that helps Palin and hurts the Republican party.
fasteddie9318
So wait, is this good news for John McCain specifically, or the Republicans generally?
Spaghetti Lee
Well, if you were a Republican strategist, you’d be oblivious to reality and thus not worried about such earthly concerns.
JMG
Steve M. is wrong. In election results, spin doesn’t matter — only numbers. If the Dems hold both Houses of Congress (they won’t), they win no matter who spins the number and how it’s spun. If Republicans win, then how Palin and Bush’s book tours go is even more astoundingly irrelevant to our politics.
slag
Great. Both Jr. and Sideshow Sarah descending on us at the same time. So much stupid packed into such little time. Are we really, really sure this isn’t the rapture?
Cris
I remember watching the 1992 GOP national convention, and even though I had recently finalized my departure from the party, Reagan still had the power to enthrall me.
I feel sorry for people who pine for GWB’s return. Say what you will about the Gipper’s horrible legacy, he was a hell of a speaker. A Bush comeback just doesn’t compare.
eemom
can’t find it now, but I read somewhere today that “prominent” republicans are furious at Bush for timing the book’s release right before election day.
Also the book is called something really stupid, like “Misunderestimating Decisions” or something.
Can’t wait.
Allison W.
I think Steve M. is right. The media has a hard time letting go of the narrative that it created. The election, no matter how well the Dems do, will be spun in favor of the republicans.
Mnemosyne
@eemom:
I suspect Bush and his people are doing it for exactly the reasons Steve M. thinks — they’re assuming that the Republicans will win big and Bush can ride that wave of glory without actually having to, you know, earn it.
fasteddie9318
@Cris:
OK, but I mean, GWB had us this close to Teh Second Coming of Jeebus, and then those fucking term limits had to stop things in their tracks.
S. cerevisiae
My biggest fear is that some foolish warehouse worker will stack Dubya’s and Super Sarah’s books together, reaching critical mass and causing a black hole of stupid to open up and swallow the Earth.
General Stuck
Dems are going to lose seats, certainly in those reddish districts they had no business winning in the first place in 08.
But I mostly agree with Sargent, Bush is dems best campaign ad, whether about his book or not. While polls have been rough recently on dems in general, and somewhat for Obama, (though compared to Reagan at this stage, not that bad) voters have consistently laid most of the blame of our current straights at the feet of the Bush administration, not unlike George’s historic run of bad polling in the low 30 percentile nearly three solid years.
It was set in concrete, no matter what else happened that should have given him occasional bumps in approval.
Voters are anxious and disappointed things haven’t gotten better, faster than they have, but repubs don’t get a break as being a viable alternative in polls, and rank lower than dems in that regard. They haven’t provided better solutions, other than the ones they had when in power. It is hard to win with just opposition, when push comes to shove down the homestretch of a campaign.
It has only been two years, and after labor day, when the voters start really thinking about the election, being reminded of Bush, and goopers in general complete failure in governance should have some mitigation effect on dem loses.
It will mostly be determined by how well Obama and the DNC can get out the dem vote, that still largely approves of Obama. Complacency of dem voters from holding power, coupled with angry enthusiasm from the opposing party about always adds up to the party in power losing seats in the first mid term of a new presnit. But Bush disgust runs deeper than most ex presnits, so we shall see.
Mnemosyne
@Allison W.:
That’s one reason I’m not panicking yet, actually — the media narrative in 2008 was that the Republicans were going to increase their majorities in both houses of Congress. Instead, they got pounded and Democrats took both over. The media was shell-shocked for days and could not understand how it happened.
fasteddie9318
@Mnemosyne:
Hey, he’s 64 years old; why should he have to start earning stuff now, all of a sudden?
Bill E Pilgrim
@eemom: It’s called “Decision Points” which I’m certain is a calculated way of saying “Look, I had to make a decision and made the best one I could based on the information I had” which is to say “it wasn’t my fault, it was the intelligence” which is to say “let’s talk about my tragic invasion of Iraq some more” to which I say: Oh good.
Just when the Republicans get their ducks in a row here comes Elmer Fudd honking his clown horn and saying “HEY, ARE THOSE DECOYS? CAN I JOIN YOU? THIS IS GREAT, HUH GUYS?” as loud as possible and blowing the whole thing.
Midnight Marauder
@eemom:
I think you might be talking about this article from Matt Latimer over at The Daily Beast entitled “The Bush Book Bomb.”
Close. Decision Points.
Get excited.
ed
It also plays into a “Holy fucking shit are these two buffoons motherfucking shit-all stupid. I ain’t never seen anyone that shit-all stupid; they must have manure for their brains. How the fuck did they ever get to be (nominative) leaders of a god-damned major political party let alone a fucking Dairy Queen?” narrative. Which has the added benefit of being, you know, (motherfucking) true.
licensed to kill time
I love your title, DougJ, but The Return Of Gollum and His Precious is what comes to my mind.
Mojotron
The problem isn’t that these fools are going to buy Bush’s book, but that they’re going to mispronounce “Klaatu barada nikto”.
danimal
Sooooo, Peak Wingnut may possibly occur in mid to late November?
pdf
Steve M. is a broken clock. Nothing is ever good news for Democrats; everything is good news for Republicans. He professes to actually be a Democrat (or at least to be anti-Republican), but he’s second only to Karl Rove in his bullishness on their electoral chances, the awesome power of their messaging, etc., etc.
Zifnab
So the question is whether the massive jerk-off media coverage of the book will be good or bad for elections? I don’t even know anymore. If we could run 535 Barak Obamas, instead of the pack of war mongering plutocrats currently running for office, I imagine we’d be doing better. But then we’d have better legislation.
If anything, Bush’s memoir will likely just remind me how far to the right the discourse in this country has become. Discussing whether the mutilation of a child’s genitals for the purpose of extracting information from some random gumba you picked off the street should be expected of the government to fight Terr’rism, while waxing poetic about the value of tax cuts and an economic stimulus provided by military spending.
Cris
But for the teabaggers, the next sentence is “That’s just the kind of person I want in charge. They really understand me!”
JC
Will unemployment still be over 8%? Yes?
Then that’s all I need to know, regarding democratic losses in November.
You would think that, Democrats might actually care about that, but when you have a nice cushy lobbyist job lined up at a financial firm because of all the voting you DIDN’T DO, to make it harder for financial firms to skim off more from GDP, it’s not really much of a care after all.
eemom
@Midnight Marauder:
yeah, that’s it. Thanks.
So WTF is a “decision point”? Is it the point at which one makes a decision? Or the points one uses to make a decision? Or does it refer to one of those desk gadgets where there’s a Yes and a No and you spin the little spinny thing to point at one or the other and that’s the decision?
Perhaps it is a terme d’arte known only to those learned in Deciderating Science.
Paris
I don’t think the grifter’s book will be much of a newsmaker since its just a bunch of quotes already in the public domain. I get the impression it’ll be something like Caroline Kennedy’s.
Kevin Phillips Bong
So much of this ignores the larger narrative that, if the Republicans win major victories, it’s one more data point indicating that the American electorate are just too stupid to have nice things. I can’t imagine a sentient being looking at the current political and economic climate and thinking “yep, better put those other guys back in charge.” I don’t want to be such a cranky pessimist, but we (collectively) make it so damn easy.
liberal
@Cris:
That’s hardly agreed upon.
In one of Oliver Sacks’ books, perhaps The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat, Sacks reported that the aphasia ward was laughing hysterically at one of Reagan’s speeches. IIRC it was basically that they couldn’t understand him, being aphasics, but they could read his facial/body language and could tell he was full of shit.
OTOH Sacks also saw a patient who was the opposite: could understand spoken language but couldn’t follow body language, emotional tone, etc. She thought Reagan’s grammar etc was terrible.
This idea of Reagan as a Great Communicator is just nonsense spun out by the mass media.
matoko_chan
I think Assange and Wikileaks are going to rain on Bush’s Rehabilitation Tour bigtime…..
April 5 (collateral murder video)–approx 4 month interval–Wikileaks docs– approx 4 month interval — late October release of Garani massacre video and/or humiliating classified diplomatic cables?
Bob Loblaw
@JC:
Or 9.5% actually. The Dems collectively would kill for 8% nationwide, and yet half their caucus couldn’t give any less of a shit about the problem. So it goes.
liberal
@JC:
Unfortunately, the empirical data agree with you.
liberal
@matoko_chan:
I’d be more excited about the release of the encryption key for the “insurance” document.
ksmiami
DougJ – Things are getting better – maybe not enough to prevent some nominal seats from switching, but geebus, have you listened to the Repukes lately? Scary buncha mofos and my problem is WHY WOULD ANYONE hand over power to these morons? Even in Barrons (that pinko commie rag), the basic gist was the rich are now nervous that the repukes would implement severe austerity measures and remove any and all economic stimulus, thus spiraling our economy downward. IDIOTS. I think they are overreaching and starting to scare the corporate overlords as a little too radical to be trusted…
jvill
Well, OK, so now that this is all obvious…
… What are the Dem strategists going to do to counter this effort to…
Oh why bother. We all know they’re going to do nothing.
SRW1
The title of the book is ‘Decision Points’? Is that because ‘The Decider’ was already taken?
El Cid
If I remember the GOP / rightwing talking point line correctly, Bush Jr. was not a conservative but a liberal because he expanded government and didn’t carpet bomb the IRS and Departments of Energy and Education and EPA and Labor etc. and put the Bible back into the schools and so forth.
Comrade Kevin
@JMG:
You actually think the Democrats will lose at least 38 seats in the House, and/or nine in the Senate?
fasteddie9318
@Comrade Kevin:
At least that many. The FSM will wave His Noodly Appendage over the election results and manipulate a Republican landslide. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats lost all their Senate seats, even the ones that aren’t actually up in this cycle, because of His saucy ways.
Cris
Classic. Well, I can’t speak for the rest of the country, but I can think of one major factor that made me so enamored of old Dutch: I was 10 years old when he was elected. Living in a Republican household in those formative years, I was ripe for the imprinting. I probably would have considered a ping-pong ball to be a great communicator if it had the GOP’s approval.
Mike G
Or alternately, “I was too stupid to know any better”.
Brachiator
I don’t think this kind of thing matters nearly as much as people think. If there are Democratic party strategists working on plans to make hay with this, they should be fired immediately.
The government and the economy belongs to Obama now. Backtracking on how much Bush fucked it up sounds weak. The average Joe would rightly reply, “I know Bushed fucked it up. I got no job or am just hanging on. Now, what are you going to do to fix the mess that Bush left?”
Palin is an important nobody. People like her and may actually be hoping she runs in the future. But she is totally disconnected from the Bush Administration. In the here and now, she doesn’t matter. She could even say that she loved everything that Bush did and said, but so what? She wasn’t responsible for anything that went down.
People need to step away from Beltway thinking.
Pundits will read these books and drone on and on about what they mean, how historians will judge them, etc. Crowds may or may not show up for various signings.
Nobody who is trying to make it through this recession will give a damn.