Speaking of speculation, as DougJ notes, Mitch Daniels is in the middle of a pundit market run-up as our elite overseers try to filter out the Republican candidates that the little people shouldn’t waste time on. He’s one of four acceptable, serious candidates:
DAVID BROOKS: Yes. That’s actually a very good test, because of the people you mentioned [Romney, Pawlenty and Daniels], who did, those are the serious candidates.
And I might throw in another. Jon Huntsman seems to be running. And I suspect he’s a serious candidate. I’m not sure what his odds are. But it’s going to be a — the good thing about this debate was, there were only five people up on the stage.
JIM LEHRER: Yes.
DAVID BROOKS: When the serious candidates come in, there’s going to be a lot. And they will be very inconclusive. And it will just be hard to have a good debate with so many of the people who are not going to get the nomination up there.
And, so, you know what? I — but I think we will known in 10 days. I have been talking…
JIM LEHRER: Ten days?
DAVID BROOKS: … to some of the candidates. And I think they have a feeling that, within 10 days, the people who are half-in, half-out have to say, yes, I’m in; yes, I’m out.
So, I think we will know very soon, and by the next president — the next debate next month, it will be a real debate.
I realize that many an electron will be spent extolling the seriousness of this new fantastic four, but will the energy of tens of fingers hitting hundreds of keys really matter? Is there still a Republican electorate motivated to go to the polls and vote for a Mormon (bad), a Mormon Obama likes (worse), an Arab (shudder), or a wimp? How exactly is the admittedly immense potential energy of David Brooks’ imprimatur transmitted to the average Republican primary voter? I don’t quite understand the physics or chemistry of that reaction. Because what I see is a party controlled by its rump, a bunch of angry white tea partiers who don’t give a shit about what David Brooks thinks is “real” or “serious”.
alwhite
I’d put money on either Cain or Jindal. I bet the “smart” Republicans inside the beltway think Obama is unbeatable. This means they need a sacrificial lamb and would like to send one of their uncles to be eviscerated.
This allows them a double win in defeat – “see, we let those people represent us too” AND “since he didn’t win we can safely go back to whites only on the ticket”
Linda Featheringill
Wikipedia says that Daniels’ paternal grandparents were Christian immigrants from Syria.
Hmmm.
Seanly
I had the misfortune to tune into the News Hour during that exchange. I was saddened to see Lehrer gobbling up Brooks’ BS. But then I remembered that Brooks is one of the pundits that is wrong about everything all the time and I smiled.
Ummm, is Pawlenty the Arab or wimp? Not sure I understand that… (okay, comment #2 cleared that up)
Otherwise, I agree with your point. The Republicans are letting the nuts run the insane asylum.
Linda Featheringill
Maybe they are all waiting until after the Rapture, scheduled for May 21 of this year, to see who is left to run for office.
Breezeblock
I can’t make sense of Brooks’ word salad. Whatevs.
PeakVT
I don’t think Brooks’ purpose in anything he does is to influence the base. He’s out to spin events like the first debate in a manner that calms “moderates” (aka people who can’t tell shit from shinola) and keeps them open to voting for Repukes.
agrippa
Far too early for me to say. I will wait for what happens in this process. Approximately 45% of the voting public vote GOP no matter what, nationwide. The GOP has local majorities, such as the old Confederacy. The GOP needs about 5% more voters to win.
We shall see.
Anya
I have a feeling Jon Huntsman is only making noises about running now, so that he can get national name recognition now for a run in 2016.
LGRooney
This is where your observational skills have failed you. They are certainly angry but they have proven time and again that they will be angry about whatever their ‘betters’ tell them to be angry. If there is a candidate the serious people like better than the Mormon(s), they will instruct the angry that Mormon is bad and you must deny them your vote and they will be on the street ensuring no office for the Mormon(s). They are sheep and will do as they’re told. Brooks is one of those betters and a whore. He will shill for whomever he is told until he has enough money to not give a shit anymore and then he will go write biographies of the assholes he likes while still writing the occasional op-ed in favor of his former sponsors to ensure book sales.
Cat Lady
It’s going to be impossible for any of the goopers to pivot from winning the SC primary which will require full metal dog whistle race baiting god bothering to running away from that for the general. None of the candidates can do it, and the one who ends up getting the closest will be gutted by Obama in every debate. I can’t wait.
terraformer
As for Daniels, Doghouse Riley of Indiana has been competently whittling away about this buffoon for quite awhile now.
Ash Can
The main thing I recall about the GOP primaries in 2008 was that they really showed the fissures in the Republican voting base (and I mean “base” in the broadest sense). McCain essentially defaulted into the nomination because the different wacko factions all had their own candidates — Huckabee for the Holy Rollers, Tancredo for the racists/xenophobes, Romney for Rush Limbaugh and the other corporate fat cats, Giuliani for the Serious East-Coast Big-Name-Newspaper Commentators, etc. I doubt that this primary will be different, although I do see how I could be wrong for the reason mistermix mentions, about the angry white rump having taken over the GOP. The GOP voters willing to make the effort to show up at the caucuses or even just at the polls for the primaries may turn up their noses at Pawlenty because they think he didn’t let enough Communist-public-infrastructure bridges fall into the Mississippi on his watch, and we actually will end up with a Jim DeMint or Rick Santorum as the nominee. At any rate, though, I anticipate consuming large amounts of popcorn.
suzanne
Why do I fear that this campaign is going to be one of the most boring in recent history? Lordy. Each of those candidates is less interesting than the last.
David
The Birthers have already rejected Jindal (their “reasoning” being both of his parents weren’t citizens at the time of his birth).
superdestroyer
The media has to find a way to justify covering the Republican primaries and the general election when everyone knows that President Obama will be re-elected in a landslide.
I guess all of the punidt/wonk class are beginning to worry about their own careers now that most presidential elections are irrelevant.
The next relevant presidential election will be in January 2016 during the Democratic Party Iowa caucuses when the successor to President Obama is decided.
Comrade Javamanphil
The Mormonism of Romney and Huntsman will be a non-factor to most GOP voters. Mormons are white (mostly.) That will be good enough for the Bubba vote.
Steve M.
I agree with you. We’re going to get either a crazy GOP nominee or a non-crazy nominee who’s learned to play the crazy card (Romney in “double Guantanamo” mode, for example), who’ll have to pick a genuine crazy as a running mate.
But have no fear: if that ticket loses badly to Obama/Biden, we’ll be told that Obama still doesn’t have a “mandate,” because the kind of Republican who should have run didn’t run, therefore the GOP effectively won the election.
Kane
What a conundrum for the “serious” Republican candidates. Attempt to appeal to moderates and independents, and the republican base will accuse you of being a RINO and you’ll have difficulty winning the primary.
Pander to the base, and you’ll turn off moderates and independents and lessen your chance of winning in the general election.
Republicans are beginning to realize that they have painted themselves into a corner.
mr. whipple
No way. The GOP primary voter is the 27%’er. They are insane.
Yup.
stuckinred
@David: It’s fun to see that in Treme they have linked Jindal to the sleeze bag big money boys!
gnomedad
@David:
Wow, really? I almost feel sorry for him. So now citizenship is determined by the birthers and not the Constitution?
Georgia Pig
Daniels and Huntsman are going along for the ride because they look at the field and see a wasteland of wackos and has-beens, which inherently gives them a shot. The only way they move forward in 2012, however, is if Obama has a big screw up or the economy doesn’t recover. Neither has much in the way of name recognition, and neither has developed much of a message other than “less crazy.” Unlike Clinton in ’92, they can’t take advantage of a generational divide or the “vision thing” that brought down the first Bush. The nature of the Republican primaries also works against them. As someone noted above, they’re at best positioning themselves for 2016.
I’d like to see some young blood moving up for the Dems in 2012, but Obama takes up a lot of the oxygen, much like Clinton did in the late 90’s. Maybe Joe Biden could move to State after Hillary steps down and run Gillibrand as VP, with Hillary to replace a retiring Justice Ginsburg in Obama’s second term?
Triassic Sands
In the end, I’d expect ideology to trump (small “t”) other characteristics. I have no idea who the Republicans will choose. Fortunately, I don’t think like they do and we share approximately zero values, so I can’t channel my inner Republican and pick a candidate.
However, what I would expect is a candidate who represents a dire threat to the well-being of most Americans, and whose fundamental values are reprehensible. But, that is true of every possible Republican candidate, so it doesn’t narrow the field.
Triassic Sands
@Kane:
They may have painted themselves into a corner, but do you really think many of them realize that?
Kane
@Triassic Sands:
Yes, I think they do realize that. Which might explain why none of them has enthusiastically thrown their hat into the ring.
Chris
@Ash Can:
My observation was that the vote essentially split between big business (Romney), social conservatives (Huckabee) and moderates (McCain). None of the other factions had enough people to really matter.
McCain won because the big business and religious right factions of the party couldn’t agree on a candidate. Eight years earlier, Bush had been a dream candidate for both, which is why he easily beat McCain.
@Steve M.:
Ah, fun. 2008 all over again.
Xantar
Mitch Daniels looks white and has a white-sounding name, so I don’t think his Syrian heritage is going to be much of a factor.
Now, the fact that he’s short, on the other hand…
Chris
@Comrade Javamanphil:
Disagree. Huckabee’s main competition for the social conservative vote in 2008 was Brownback: part of the reason he won was because some of his supporters discreetly but effectively hit him with anti-Catholic agitprop. Anti-Mormon sentiment’s even stronger, IMO, in the fundie evangelical base.
Not saying he can’t win (depends on who the rest of the field is and how he plays against them), but yes, it will definitely be a factor for a lot of people.
@gnomedad:
Citizenship? Not at all.
Admission to the Real American status that’s been the GOP voter’s holy grail for a hundred and thirty years at least? Oh hell yes.
tom p
@efgoldman:
I hear a lot of “The GOP can’t win… Look at their candidates.” I want to mention 2 names: Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. (RR was not an unknown) I see the same sort of set up for Mitch Daniels. Don’t know if can pull it off but he has a lot of people convinced his sheeps clothing is not masking an inner wolf.
VOR
The problem is not that the Tea Partiers will do as they are told. The problem is that the TPers don’t understand the subtleties and stick to the message as stated. For example, failing to raise the debt ceiling would be a disaster for Wall Street. The standard Republicans are using it as a bargaining chip but they know it has to be raised. The TPers are dead serious about letting the US default because they don’t see the difference between a bargaining chip and a point of principle. When your only information sources are Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh then you miss a lot of information.
EconWatcher
@superdestroyer:
“everyone knows that President Obama will be re-elected in a landslide.”
Wow. How can you possibly say this, chief?
We’re one more Mideast crisis away from the kind of oil-price shock that could tank the economy again. There are a million different ways the economy could slide into a double-dip recession, or stagnate with the current levels of unemployment. And in either scenario, almost any random troglodyte could beat Obama.
I remember all the triumphalism on this blog after November of 2008, with a lot of bold talk about the death of the GOP. And I said at the time, there’s no way Obama can fix the economy by the mid-terms, and we’re going to get thrashed. This doesn’t take any prescience. You just have to pay attention.
I agree that the current crop of contenders looks pathetic. And I’ll be out voting for the President early and often. But it’s always the economy, stupid (no offense).
John PM
Wait,the Rapture is May 21? Why didn’t I get the memo from the Pope? This could negatively affect my brother’s wedding shower that day. Can someone provide me a link? Much appreciated.
Dennis SGMM
Yeah, those Republicans sure are a bunch of dopes. Good thing that no sane, decent, realistic, Democratic president who was saddled with a bad economy has ever been picked off by a shallow, superficial, Republican peddling American exceptionalism and “government is the problem.”
Chris
@Kane:
I agree. Remember the last election cycle? By this time, the candidate field was already full and everyone was fighting tooth and nail for the nomination. This time, all I’m seeing is a ton of reluctance. They’ve let fake candidates like Trump and Palin hog all the attention while they continue to dither and stall.
The economy probably has a lot to do with it, and so does the fact that they’ve just had the rug yanked right out from underneath their feet on one of their key issues (the war on terror).
Not only are they afraid to run, I wonder if some of them might be afraid to win. If they do, it’ll mean the economy’s still in the gutter, which means a lot of people will be clamoring for them to fix it… and at some level I imagine a lot of them (especially Romney) realize that conservative economics don’t work. During good economic times, they can get away with that; during a recession, not so much. (And of course they can’t abandon those ideas either, or the teabaggers and Wall Street will open up on them with both barrels).
All in all, a very unenviable situation. Like you said, they’re painted into a corner and don’t know what to do about it.
tom p
@EconWatcher: @superdestroyer:
“everyone knows that President Obama will be re-elected in a landslide.”
Wow. How can you possibly say this, chief?
Read Econ.
MonkeyBoy
Supporters (paid?) of these candidates seem to be engaged in Wikipedia “fluff” campaigns. Here is the current sizes of their entries:
Last night Daniels page was marked ‘{{Advert|date=May 2011}}’ which resulted in the following text being displayed at the top of the page in a fancy box:
That was speedily removed by a fanboy – justified by there being some criticisms of Daniels.
One goal of overly long wiki pages is that actual achievements, positions, criticisms, etc. get hidden in the noise.
tom p
Sorry Econ,
that was supposed to say “Read sarcasm, Econ.” My computer locked up on the edit.
piratedan
@gnomedad: oh sure, he and his “ilk” can sit in the ballroom and have a meal, but you know that they’re going to be placed at the table located by the swinging doors attached to the kitchen.
Ash Can
@John PM: We’re having a benefit golf outing for my son’s school that day. All serious golfers in the area should hope they get raptured up on that day so they don’t have to witness us disgracing the game of golf that afternoon.
JohnR
10 days? That’s just insane. Everyone knows that the next six months are the critical period for the primary candidates.
EdTheRed
Are you a believer in elections?
(Seriousness everywhere in this bitch, it’s all around you and you don’t even know it.)
Do you notice and recognize elections?
It’s just there in the air, are you a believer in elections?
(Pure motherf*cking seriousness, this sh*t will blow your f*cking mind.)
jibeaux
In the last GOP debate, I realize it was just an informal show of hands, but weren’t the viewers mightily impressed with Herman Cain? I realize Brooks wants one of these milquetoast guys, but all the fluffing in the world isn’t going to make Pawlenty look like a savior to these guys. These are Republican primary voters, for heaven’s sakes, they’re batshit crazy and I think they probably know the odds are stacked against them so what exactly is their motivation to settle?
Omnes Omnibus
@EdTheRed: Quoi?
Sharl
Pawlenty a WIMP? Perish the thought! Behold!
Is that stunt, played on someone he just met, the behavior of a wimp? No, I sez, that is the act of a manly man!
rachel
@EconWatcher: Superdestroyer finally posted a comment that isn’t simmering with hatred toward minorities*. I think he should be encouraged in this.
*There may have been others over the years; but if so, I’ve missed them.
Bulworth
The next six months are critical….
Amir_Khalid
Does it matter that Mitch Daniels is half-Arab if he isn’t Muslim? As far as I know, an Arab heritage (and even an Arabic surname) was never held against Ralph Nader. South Carolina recently elected as governor an Indian-American Republican, Nikki Haley, who hasn’t quite given up her native Sikhism for Christianity. And you can see her Punjabi heritage on her face, as plain as day.
Origuy
@John PM: There’s a religious leader named Harold Camping who says that the Rapture will occur on May 21. His group owns a string of radio stations collectively called Family Radio. They’ve put up billboards and sent out trucks with writing on the all over the place.
A Farmer
Michele Bachmann’s fundraising ability is exhibit #1 for a complete fact and intelligent thought-free Republican base.
Doug Harlan J
I’m not sure what to think here. On the one hand, Republicans bucked their Rovian overlords in the 2010 primaries. On the other, Republican primary voters spent the rest of the last 40 years as craven order-takers ready to support whoever the establishment wanted them to support.
I don’t know how 2010 plays out, whether Republicans will pull the lever for quien es mas serious or whether we say more O’Donnell stuff.
Sloegin
@John PM: Cases of the Raptures occasionally spring up here and there, here you have a fairly large outbreak.
Kinda surprised it didn’t appear sooner; you’ve got a ready-made audience susceptible to this due to various factors; y2k plus or minus some mumbo jumbo about Jesus’s age, Mayan calendaring, B-Rock “The Shock” Obama being Prez, etc.
Not even remotely ‘logical’ factors from a believer’s standpoint; much less so from ‘The Rapture’ being a modern Christian heresy invented in the 19th century.
hippobippo
you’re gonna listen to that guy? brooks?
the quality/seriousness of the GOP candidate will be in proportion to their perceived chances against Barry O. right now it looks as if there is a strategic forfeit, or at most no-contact practice, in store.
because game recognize game.
EdTheRed
@Omnes Omnibus:
The thread title is a tip of the hat to the Insanest Insane Clown Posse track of all time, “Miracles.” The original line is:
“Water, fire, air and dirt
F*cking magnets, how do they work?”
And yes, yes they were serious. Like Bill O. talking about the tides.
Shrillhouse
The GOP is in a nihilistic death spiral. It has been for a while now. I can’t remember who it was, Digby perhaps, who argued that the GOP nominee in 2012 will be a freakish “Frankenstein’s monster” of a candidate.
When you think about all the insane, extreme, and self-contradicting positions that the nominee will need to hold, you are left with an unelectable wacko. However, the teabaggers who now make up the GOP’s base simply do not understand this.
Then again, if unemployment is still at 9% next year….
Roger Moore
@Ash Can:
Another important point to consider is that the Republicans have switched the format of many of their primaries; they now split their delegates rather than going plurality takes all. That means a massively split field could wind up generating a massively split delegate pool. It’s possible that there won’t be an obvious winning candidate half way through the primary season, letting party power/money brokers control the nomination. In that case, you can expect to see marginal candidates decide to drop out and pledge their delegates to some preferred candidate in exchange for plush gigs at FNC or some wingnut welfare thinktank.
Bulworth
Also, too, the Newtster is apparently ready to announce his long-awaited candidacy. I assume Brooksy will be happy to have another Very Serious republican in the mix.
Lihtox
I think these early “endorsements” are meant to win over *donors*, not voters: divert enough money from the crazy candidates to the “serious” candidates and the latter will make a better show of it six months from now, when the voters *really* start paying attention.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Xantar:
balding, looks like an accountant,.. Just look at the face. That is the face of the man who tells you that you need to cut back on office supply usage, not says don’t worry, I have this under control.
The problem with GOP candidates is their physical appearance isn’t inspiring. That maybe part of Trump appeal. He looks and talks leader like.
Svensker
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Seriously? Well, maybe if you’re marching to Hell in fake designer boots. Otherwise, my feets point the other direction.
Xenocrates
The problem is that Brooks is not preaching to the “moderate wing of the GOP” because there is no longer any such thing. And David Brooks is not beholden to the electorate for his perch on the Op-Ed page; for that we can thank Pinch and Keller. I don’t think anyone really reads and believes his little pearls of wisdom, other than those who choose to ridicule him.
kay
@Roger Moore:
I thought so too, but then I looked at it, and I think it’s not all it’s cracked up to be.
They essentially exempted the very early contests, so take out the first four: they’re still (allowed to be)winner take all. Then they go proportional for the March set, and back to winner take all for April.
It’s more proportional than 2008, but not a lot more.