(Ballard Street by Jerry Van Amerongen, via Gocomics.com)
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Happy thoughts for the beginning of a compressed work week:
Republicans brace for tough 2012 fight against Obama in unlikely place
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RALEIGH, N.C. — By any number of indicators, President Obama shouldn’t have much of a chance in North Carolina next year. In no state was Obama’s 2008 win closer — he won by just 14,177 votes, or 0.3 percent of the electorate — and he’s less popular now. The economy, now Obama’s economy, is in worse shape. And voters here have turned against many Democrats, ousting a congressman and a slew of state lawmakers last fall.
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But if Republican activists are feeling confident, you wouldn’t know it by what they’re doing and saying…
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“They turned out voters in record numbers last time, and we need to be ready,” said Robin Hayes, chairman of the North Carolina GOP and a former congressman who was defeated in the 2008 wave that Obama led. “We expect them to be as good and probably better. We know they’ll have more money. And if you think that’s not the case, you’re making a foolish mistake.”
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The dynamics in North Carolina that worry Republicans — a booming minority population, an influx of more moderate voters and a changing set of priorities — are on display across other parts of the South as well, notably in Virginia and Florida, where Obama also won in 2008.
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This time around, his campaign hopes to make a play for Georgia and Texas, seeing in those states the same sorts of economic and cultural changes as elsewhere in the South. An Obama victory in either would be a long shot, but a win in any of those Southern states would make it difficult for Republicans to capture the presidency.
Ben Cisco
Happy thoughts indeed, and anything IDing Robin Hayes as a FORMER congressman from my state is a great thing to read early in the week.
superdestroyer
If the Republicans have to spend a dollar in North Carolina, Texas, or Georgia, then the Republican candidate will lose in a rout.
The Democrats know that they will get close to 250 electoral votes without spending any money. Spending a billion dollars in the swing states and in the states that lean Republican means that the Republicans are not really a national party and that the Republicans have become irrelevant.
I wonder if by 2020, Historians will look back and say that 2005 was the last competitive, two party election for president.
thrashbluegrass
Difficult? Try impossible. If VA goes, and that looks incredibly likely, then it’s over for the Republican nominee.
Joseph Nobles
Having attempted to teach her to crate, John hopes to avoid Rosie.
Libby
It’s not just the mighty Obama machine that’s going to take the GOPers down in NC. Lot of buyers remorse going around among the little burghs. NC isn’t getting the attention like WI, Ohio and FL but the newly empowered GOP statehouse is pursuing the same agenda as the GOP govs. Even my very conservative local city gov is bitching publicly about the bills they’re pushing. Only thing that saves us at all is a Dem gov here. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Statehouse roll back over in 2012.
Ian
Looking forward to getting my visa sometime in the next month or so so I can start helping Dems/Obama 2012 in Durham :)
Schad
This is why people prefer to focus on the horse race stuff for ratings…the math suggests that it could be a very dull 2012 at the top of the ticket. Eliminate all of the possible swing states for a moment…that gives the Democrats a baseline of:
CA, WA, OR, MN, WI, MI, NY, VT, ME, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, IL, DC and HI.
That’s 227 electoral votes already, leaving them needing only 43 from:
FL (27), VA (13), NC (15), OH (20), PA (21), CO (9), IA (7), NH (4), NM (5), IN (11)
And that doesn’t even take into account states in which they might compete but lost this past election, like Missouri, Montana and Georgia. He could shed the majority of his pickups in 2008 but hold just OH + PA + NH/NM/IA and take it; the media has conveniently forgotten how thoroughly he dominated McCain in the Electoral College (not for any reason of bias, but “easy reelection expected” makes for two years of terrible coverage).
Basically, Obama wins a second term rather handily unless something goes rather terribly awry…which, with the GOP in control of the House, is a scary possibility.
Linda Featheringill
Good morning!
All this good news – what a lovely way to start the week!
Gonna be hot and muggy here. Ugh. I don’t have central A/C, so we rely on a couple of window units placed near the computers and various fans. I really need one more small fan. Maybe I can pick one up for about 20.00.
I’ll have to check in and see how much work the client hospital generated yesterday. Daughter says that since it is a civilian facility, they might not have shut down completely yesterday. [Military hospitals seriously observe Memorial Day and November 11.]
Everyone have a nice day.
Linda Featheringill
Referred to this site by dkos:
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/05/30/justice_department_civil_rights_police/index.html
Federal DOJ going after big-city police departments for civil rights violations.
[happy sigh] Maybe there is hope, after all. :-)
lacp
So everybody rested and rarin’ to go for this abbreviated work week? Great! Let me let the air out of your tires with this little piece on long-term unemployment in Philly, where I live:
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20110531_For_Philly_s_male_workers__no_jobs_now_____and_maybe_never_again.html?cmpid=41144277
As an added bonus for those of you who believe coming generations will be more enlightened, the comments section is a real treat. Enjoy!
Carl Nyberg
Here’s the scenario Republicans dread.
If Obama wins the Electoral College by a greater margin than he did last time, the odds of the Dems winning the next presidential election go way up (71-76%). If Obama wins by less than 2008, the odds of the Dems winning in 2016 go down to 40%.
If the Dems get their shit together and pass a law with “pathway to citizenship” before 2020, the demographics become daunting for the Republican Party. Too many old White people will have died and too many immigrants of Dem leaning ethnicities will have joined the electorate.
In some ways, the 2012 election and the “comprehensive” immigration bill are for all the marbles.
If Obama wins by 70+% in 2012 (and the Dems pass immigration reform in the second term or shortly after the 2016 election) then the GOP is going to have to go back the to drawing board.
Kirbster
I wrote to my congressman this morning to remind him that voting against raising the debt ceiling today is a vote to crash the bond (and by extension, the stock) markets, and drive the country deeper into recession. Not that I think my opinion matters to him or anything…
Carl Nyberg
@thrashbluegrass: Virginia, I suspect, will become part of the Democratic block of states because of the large number of federal employees and generally being connected to the federal government economically.
Minnesota will become increasingly hard for the Dems to defend.
Louisiana, West Virginia and Arkansas are out of reach, except for landslide elections.
Missouri is drifting away too.
jibeaux
Here’s to hoping all that anti-Republican sentiment + a presidential year will have positive down-ticket effects, too. After something like fourteen generations of boring, bidness-friendly, backslapping Democrats who aren’t anybody’s idea of progressives but at least didn’t try to pass a bunch of culture war bullshit, Republicans won state house and senate majorities for the first time since the 19th century. And let me tell you, it is completely horrifying. Top priority in an economic recession in which we are laying off teacher assistants by the tens of thousands? Finding millions of dollars to pay for ultrasounds for women seeking abortions! You could power medium-sized cities with the stupid.
Xenos
Whatever happened to Minnesota? Has evangelical religion taken the place over? Or is there some sort of demographic shift going on?
I thought it a bit strange that Obama was taking the convention to North Carolina, but that seems like an inspired choice now.
gene108
Even if Obama wins North Carolina in 2012, I can still see Democrats taking a shellacking at the state and local level. The Democratic Party in North Carolina never fell apart, like it did in other Southern states, after the 1960’s.
Since 1970, there have been only two Republican governors. Gov. Martin, serving mostly in the 1980’s, is the only Republican governor re-elected since Reconstruction.
That much sustained power has led to what is perceived as a good old boy network / corruption at the state level. People in North Carolina want to clean house, so they are turning to Republicans.
I don’t follow local North Carolina politics too closely, but I’m pretty sure Gov. Perdue is very unpopular and has been the subject of investigations for something or the other.
Gov. Easley, her predecessor, got in trouble over his wife making disproportionately large salary for working at NCSU, versus what others in the same position were getting paid and for favorable treatment on land deals.
Those sort of high profile problems left a mark on Democrats in 2010, leading to the a Republican take over of the Legislature, for the first time in a long time.
I don’t know, if Obama will be able to stop the bleeding of the North Carolina Democratic Party at the local level or if local politics matter to the Presidential politics that much. Even when North Carolina was voting for Republican Presidents, in the 1990’s and 2000’s, they were solidly backing Democratic governors and the occasional Democratic Senator.
With the exception of 1984, when Jesse Helms rode the Reagan’s coattails to a victory over former (and future governor again), Jim Hunt, I’m not sure a President’s popularity pushed a state level politician over the top or lack of popularity hurt their chances.
Maybe Gov. Martin also rode Reagan’s coattails to victory in 1984, but the Hunt / Helms Senate race is the one that gets mentioned for the “Reagan effect” that helped Republican politicians in 1984.
arguingwithsignposts
@jibeaux: Just medium-sized?
Carl Nyberg
@Schad:
I suspect Minnesota really will be “in play”. Republicans probably want to believe Michigan will be in play if Romney is the nominee because his dad was governor and Romney has always campaigned well there.
But generally your analysis is correct.
The question for me is whether Obama gives the kind of smackdown that resonates into future elections.
If my theory holds that the Dems have an excellent chance of winning the next three presidential elections if Obama takes 2012 by over 70% of the Electoral College, what are the implications for the SCOTUS?
By 2021, Scalia and Kennedy would be 84, Thomas 72, Breyer 81, Alito 70, Sotomayor 66 and Kagan 60.
gene108
@Carl Nyberg:
They’ll do what Justice Stephens did and hold on to their seat for dear life, until a President of their political liking comes along to replace them with someone, they feel will carry on their legacy and not over turn it.
WereBear
Wish we could. Our energy crisis would be over.
What I see happening is that our Parasite Load is becoming overwhelming.
All civilizations deal with a certain level; crime, for instance, is a parasite. Instead of creating value, it sucks out the value created by others. The Republican’s loosening of moral boundaries and definitions for their own purposes has unleashed the constraints that kept our Parasite Load down.
Now we have businesses that don’t do business; they only cheat. We have teachers who can’t teach because they are training for meaningless tests. Our police have breakdowns because they have been given impossible tasks like the Drug War. All of our Institutions that are supposedly so beloved of conservatives have been damaged… by “conservatives.”
Keith G
What worries me is that I am a Democrat. My party blows a lot of smoke about dissatisfaction with the GOP, demographics and turnout.
I would love to see more work on party building, messaging and stratedgies to deal with voter ID laws. Its great to have Obama as our candidate, but we should have more. We need party leadership that can step up and deal with a new and more challenging electoral landscape.
Until then, put away the champagne.
mistersnrub
Weren’t there a couple polls that showed Obama winning both Georgia AND Texas should Palin be the GOP standard-bearer?
jibeaux
@gene108:
Nope, I don’t think you do. She has not been terribly popular, no, but recent polling has her up with favorables over unfavorables, probably the product of comparing her to our other elected officials. The R legislature has flipped on that, now more unfavorable than favorable. Inevitably, they rode into office on their silver steeds and immediately began fighting battles no one wanted them to fight. Oh, and they haven’t renewed unemployment benefits, so people have been going without them for over a month now. It’s just been one long-ass reminder after another of “holy shit, now I remember why we always vote for Democrats.”
Valdivia
@Keith G:
I think the article does mention that OFA has already started working and that Debbie W-S has been there to rally the troops as well as Michelle Obama and Jill Biden. It’s great work is already starting.
tomvox1
If many of you did not like the Washington Monthly website reformat, I shudder to think of the reaction to the new Think Progress. Hopefully, this is just early teething.
Keith G
@Valdivia: Thank goodness!
That said, let me speak as a long-time Democrat. We need to take the oportunity to build further on Howard Dean’s “50 state” ideas. I felt Obama could have done more in this regard in 2008-09.
Obama is the leader of the Democratic party and we need him to build party structures and procedures that will leave us in good shape 2016 and beyond.
gene108
@jibeaux: I’m glad to hear NC voters are having buyers remorse for putting Republicans in charge in 2010.
Valdivia
@Keith G:
yep agreed, but that also means we have to do our part. I live in DC but will try to spend time from now til election volunteering in Virginia (a state we must win).
In 2008 Obama competed in a lot of states no one thought he could win and he got pretty far. I think building parties on the ground is crucial. I had no idea MN was so far gone!
Carl Nyberg
@Keith G:
With GOP doubling down on replacing Medicare with vouchers (woefully underfunded vouchers too), the Dems should be attacking every district in the House of Reps.
Dems should shoot for flipping 50-120 seats.
Ghanima Atreides
And the demographic timer goes tick…..tick…….tick…..
EconWatcher
@Valdivia:
I lived in MN for bascially all of the 1990s. I don’ know what has happened there since I left.
But I participated in several DFL caucuses while I was there, and I have to say it was a bit of a freak show. Still, they have fielded good candidates like Klobuchar and Franken (Dayton is a well-known head case).
Woodrow/asim Jarvis Hill
@Keith G:
With respect? Go read any of the books that came out about how Obama won. He did the 50 State process as well as anyone could, I think, given the process in place. He didn’t just play in “blue” states, he worked hard for most states — he kept a post-Primary motor running here in SC for the General that helped feed NC, for example. He sponsored, and OFA still sponsors, training camps for volunteers; here’s one in AZ from last year, hardly a bastion of blue-stateness.
So yes, there’s a good deal going on “below the surface” (and thus keeping it out of the media pyrotechnics), and he’s doing a good job, overall, of keeping the process going.
Libby's Person
@jibeaux:
Among the many really bad things in the GOP state budget, the General Assembly has been doing things that will harm rural NC, and this hasn’t gone unnoticed. Rural communities are really concerned about efforts to de-fund the Tobacco Trust Fund and the GoldenLEAF Fountation, among other programs aimed at investing in rural re-development and farms transitioning away from tobacco.
Gov. Perdue is very visibly standing up for education, which I think is helping her image. NC’s citizens were not calling for an end to the 3/4 cent sales tax before the GOP legislature decided to go after it, and I hear more concern about the loss of program and services than I hear support for doing away with that sales tax.
There maybe an element of wishful thinking here, but I do see signs of ‘buyers’ remorse’ in NC.
askew
What are people here talking about? Minnesota is a a safe Democratic state and has been since 1972. The GOP have tried to turn this into a swing state for the past 2 elections and it hasn’t happened. Obama is a perfect fit for MN and won’t have to seriously contest it.
Spaghetti Lee
Yeah, Minnesota’s been voting Democratic in presidential elections longer than any other state (dating back to ’84) and MI and WI aren’t far behind. I don’t know why so many people are suddenly losing faith in them.
dj spellchecka
@Schad:
i see you didn’t put ma in your baseline…that bumps the ec to 239, and i don’t believe that pa will be in play [blue for at least the last 5 pres elections, obama won 10+ in 08] add fla and game over….
with rick scott trashing the gop brand down there, unless they get rubio to relent and join the ticket, i don’t see how they could win the state
ps
obama lost the white vote in nm and won by 10+ there, too. probably out of reach for the republicans