Steve M flags a Bloomberg poll showing Obama 13 points ahead of Romney. Seems high to me, but what do I know?
There’s an interesting dynamic right now where the two big tracking polls on the election both skew Republican. One is Rasmussen, and you know their story. The other is Gallup, which seems to under-sample Latino and non-white voters (via) relative to some other pollsters and relative to what many think will be the actual turn-out in November. That’s not a criticism or allegation of bias; Gallup has its own model and it’s their commitment to transparency that allows for this analysis in the first place.
Real Clear Politics, whose polling average is perhaps the one most often cited, is also a more-or-less explicitly conservative organization. Nate Silver — who’s the gold standard for me — has criticized RCP in the past for the way it handles its averaging.
By October, there will be tons of polls and this will matter less, but the prominence of two polls that seem to skew Republican will probably be used as further “evidence” of ACORN etc. when, Allah willing, Obama kicks Romney’s ass in November.
In the meantime, Bloomberg is a liberal outlet blah blah blah.