Considering how much pundits love to speculate about how unrealistic what-if scenarios, I’m surprised this isn’t getting more attention:
Former congressman Virgil Goode Jr. has qualified for the presidential ballot in Virginia, the State Board of Elections ruled Tuesday, adding a potential obstacle to Republican Mitt Romney’s hopes of winning the pivotal state.
The state Republican Party is challenging Goode’s eligibility, alleging petition fraud, and the Constitution Party’s nominee still could be knocked off the ballot. Goode served in Congress as a Democrat, an independent and then a Republican before losing his southwest Virginia seat in 2008, and he could siphon votes from Romney.
[…]Most surveys of the contest have not included any third-party candidates, but Public Policy Polling — which uses automated phone calls rather than live interviews — released Virginia polls in May and July with Goode getting 5 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
Goode has about twice as many signatures as the state requires. In New York State, that’s considered a safe number. I don’t know if it is in Virginia.
dmsilev
Virginia has fairly stringent ballot access laws (c.f. various members of the GOP Clown Show failing to make the ballot for the primary). I’ll go out on a limb though and say that it won’t matter much either way; third party candidates very often poll OK a few months out and then see their actual support become vanishingly small on Election Day.
Dennis SGMM
Hope it isn’t too much wonkitude to observe that Goode and his people did a better job of filling out the paperwork than did the Newtster.
BGinCHI
If
redneckGOP voters are dissatisfied with Romney, that might show up as a Goode vote on election day. A protest from the right.Linda Featheringill
@dmsilev:
I suspect that Goode will appear attractive to those people who sure-as-hell ain’t gonna vote for that guy in the White House but Damn! that Romney is an unlovable mofo.
Dunno how many that it, though.
Xecky Gilchrist
I can’t see teabaggers going for a Constitution Party candidate.
Now if it were the CONSTUSHUN party, that’d be a different matter.
MattF
There’s an added complication in Virginia with the Allen vs. Kaine Senate race– it’s possible that Goode would bring out voters who will vote for Allen. So, it’s not all good news for Dems.
dmsilev
@Linda Featheringill: I think people like that would just stay home and not vote if the choices were only Obama v Robot.
ed
Zero chance The Cooch let’s Goode on the ballot. Zero.
quannlace
So now Romney says he’d keep the ‘good’ parts of Obamacare?
How soon before he claims credit for the ACA, like he has for the auto bailout?
BGinCHI
Another frabjous chart from Kthug that puts the right and, particularly, Rand Paul and the government-taking-over conspiracy whackjobs in their places.
Their echo chamber is so full of stupid. Time to change the filter, idiots.
BGinCHI
@quannlace: Once he renames it WhiteyCare he’s in business. He’s running for President for Pete’s sake.
Dennis SGMM
@Xecky Gilchrist:
Now if it were the
CONSTUSHUN party, we’re white people and We’re the White People Have Always ruled Party that’d be a different matter.Just a suggested alternative.
Way back in the late Sixties, the estimable James Brown exhorted his audience to “Say it loud – I’m black and I’m proud.” At the same time another line went around, “Say it soft, I’m white and I’m boss.”
David
The Birthers have been wanting Republicans to challenge Obama’s eligibility for four years instead they challenge a Conservative’s.
bondirotta
There is a reason why Romney made the bizarre “keep God on coins” comment yesterday – and then suddenly promised to maintain the right for insurance for people with pre-existing conditions.
He is panicking. He has started making unplanned, odd declarations aimed at changing the dynamics. This is what McCain did 4 years ago with suspending his campaign and whatnot.
eemom
@MattF:
The species of wingnut who will vote for Goode over Romtron is not a likely Allen vote. Allen is just as establishment as Romtron, and the glibertarian/”constitutional” freakazoids will have their own Senate candidate on the ballot.
Beyond that, I have this to say about the Goode candidacy: bwaaaahaaaahaaaahaaaaahaaaaa
kerFuFFler
It would be hilarious if Goode cost Romney the state of Virginia.
But considering how underhanded Goode is, I would not be surprised if tons of his signatures turn out to be bogus. His ’08 campaign against Perriello was outrageous! I’m glad Perriello won in ’08 but sorry to see him lose two years later. He was one of the good guys!
NCSteve
If it’s not Excellent News!!!!! for Mitt!!!!!, they’re not interested.
Emrventures
Ah, reminds me of those glorious days back in the early 2000s when Virgil Goode was battling it out against Al Weed in the Virginia Fifth Congressional. Because, after all, in a Goode-Weed contest, who loses?
Loneoak
@NCSteve:
Yeah, but it is excellent news for McCain!
Linda Featheringill
@quannlace:
There would be some factual basis for this claim. I’d be willing to give him generous dollop of credit for Obamacare.
Villago Delenda Est
@bondirotta:
I recall how well that approach worked for President McCain, too.
Villago Delenda Est
@Emrventures:
Law enforcement empire builders.
quannlace
Quite true. It’s just so funny to hear this when he’s been running away from it for months. And when he vowed to repeal all of it the day he’s inaugarated. How will he explain it to the wingnuts that he’s embracing ANY of this evil government socialism.
J.D. Rhoades
So do we send this guy money, or what?
WaterGirl
@bondirotta: I’ll keep the word ‘god’ on coins and Ryan renamed a post office.
Vote for us, we know what’s important.
Frankensteinbeck
@bondirotta:
I look forward to his declaration that he will ban the Amero and repeal the Admiralty Act!
Carl Nyberg
Obama has long had the safety valve of giving Goode & Johnson enough visibility to erode Romney’s support in key states.
I think Virginia is impossible for Romney b/c of Goode’s presence in the race. New Mexico is certainly off-the-table for Romney b/c of Johnson.
Brachiator
There was a big segment about this on the most recent Rachel Maddow show which put this in context. The VA rules are so strict that Newt and Rick Perry couldn’t get on the primary ballot. Newt sued and lost.
A state official looking into efforts by Romney’s people to boot this guy off the ballot promises to be objective in making his decision. Of course, he is also on Team Romney.
The Maddow episode is still available for viewing or download on iTunes.
Jim, Foolish Literalist and Fact Checker
@J.D. Rhoades: Let Foster Friese do it. Or that younger Koch brother who’s nuttier than the other two.
I don’t know anything about VA politics, but from what I”ve seen of Goode, he’s not the type to quietly go away if Cuccinelli kicks him off the ballot.
JoyceH
@ed:
I was arguing this with a friend just last night. She was taking your position. I think she (and you) are wrong.
Think about this. Yeah, Cooch is on Romney’s campaign team. But that’s just because Romney is the Republican nominee, doesn’t mean Cooch is a fervent supporter. Look at his record, and where he’s getting his support. His base is Goode’s base. He pisses off that base by ruling for Romney and against Goode – that’s a good career move ONLY if Romney wins and takes him to the Justice Department. If Romney loses, though, Cooch still has his own career to see to, his favor for Romney is worth doodly-squat, because the day after the election everything about Romney is worth doodly-squat — and he’s pissed off the very people who’ve been his most fervent supporters to date.
IMO, the only way Cooch rules for Romney is if he’s absolutely, serenely certain that Romney is going to win; otherwise, he’s got himself to look out for.
PaulW
I thought the Third Man that Republicans had to worry about was Gary Johnson on the Libertarian ticket. That he was polling well enough in New Mexico and some of the other libertarian-leaning western states to be of concern (add to that the growing possibility of Paulites taking their anger about how they were shafted in Tampa and moving their votes over to Johnson).
Ruckus
@JoyceH:
Reading your post an idea flashed into that block on top my shoulders.
Is mittens going to run in 2016?
dmsilev
@Ruckus: Very unlikely. The GOP will scapegoat him starting roughly 5 seconds after the polls close on the west coast on Election Day. There’s no way anybody would back him for a repeat run.
Although, I suppose he could self-finance. He probably could self-fund at least through the pre-primary and early primary states, which would be great for shits and giggles from the rest of us. Go on, Mitt, spend those Cayman megabucks.
Shana
@JoyceH: Right you are Joyce. Another thing to keep in mind is that Cooch is running for Governor next year and needs to keep his extreme right wing base of support happy and motivated to stick with him.
BTW, in Virginia we have elections every year. Federal ones in even years, state ones in odd years, and governor, lt. governor and attorney general are always the year after the presidential election.
And, if anyone claims to be a registered R or D or I in Virginia they don’t know what they’re talking about. Registration is registration here, there’s no registering by party.
Town
CooCooNelli is not going to strike Goode off the ballot b/c he wants to be Governor next year and he needs the Tea Party to put him in there. If he did strike Goode off the ballot I can very easily see Lt. Gov. Bolling drumming up support among the Tea Party/Goode people to pose more of a challenge to CooCoo for the GOP nomination. CooCoo has already basically told Bolling to sit his fat ass back down in that Lt. Gov. chair. Bolling’s already sat down once for McDonnell…I don’t know if he’d be willing to sit down again for CooCoo.
Or Crazy Ass Bob “Down Syndrome Kids are Because the Mother Had an Abortion” Marshall could decide he wants to be Governor too.
And of course you have Tareq Salahi making a reality show out of running for governor.
I didn’t vote for Terry McAuliffe last time b/c I thought he was a carpetbagger but I’d rather have HIM as VA governor than CooCoo, Bolling or Marshall. **shudder**
ETA: Mitt Romney is Bob Dole 2012. He had his turn™. After he loses, he’s finished.
Mike in NC
@Ruckus:
He could since he’s got a massive ego and tons of money, but he’ll be 69 years old and will have a hard time shaking the “Not a True Conservative” label. More likely a Ryan/Rubio ticket.
Brachiator
@Ruckus:
Nah, Mittens is done. Although he could mount a self financed vanity campaign, there are too many other candidates chomping at the bit for their turn.
And if the Tea Party is not kicked to the curb in 2014, they will impose strict ideological purity tests on any GOP candidate.
Josie
Goode could create problems for Romney in more than just Virginia. I just checked out his web site and it says:
” We are on the ballot in:
Colorado,Florida, Idaho,Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Washington,Wisconsin, Wyoming
We are a write in candidate in : North Carolina, Texas, Illinois, Indiana, Georgia, Maine, D.C., Pennsylvania, West Virginia,California, Maryland,Montana, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut.”
That’s a lot of states.
Biff Longbotham
Goode is a Grade A numero uno asshole (anyone remember the dustup concerning the MN US Rep, his Muslim faith, and his being sworn in on the ‘Jefferson Bible’?) but if he can make election night in Virginia more interesting I will gladly treat him to a Mickey’s wide-mouth beer.
Snarki, child of Loki
@Ruckus: “Is mittens going to run in 2016?”
I just asked Checkers, and he said NO WAY is he going into a carrier on top of Willard’s car.
So no 2016 for Willard.
ed
@JoyceH:
You make a strong case. (And Jebus knows I hope you are correct.)
I guess it comes down to what National goals he has. But even if he’s content to stay in Va., being a team player could mean big support from big money PACs (Rove et al). I guess.
maya
Interesting answer by Ann
RafalcaRomney on MTP:“I think the thing I want to communicate to people — it’s so important that people understand — is that Mitt and I do recognize that we have not a financial struggle in our lives, but I want people to believe in their hearts that we know what it is like to struggle.”
Did Ann just allude to an under the bedsheets disclosure?
patrick II
@ed:
I am sadly bemused that you two are discussing the attorney general of Virginia’s decision regarding Goode being entirely based on Cooch’s own self interest. Isn’t the objective interpretation of Virginia election law supposed to have some impact on his decision?
Not that I disagree with you by the way.
patrick II
@ed:
I am sadly bemused that you two are discussing the attorney general of Virginia’s decision regarding Goode being entirely based on Cooch’s own self interest. Isn’t the objective interpretation of Virginia election law supposed to have some impact on his decision?
Not that I disagree with you by the way.
grandpajohn
@JoyceH:
Goode has already been certified so he will be on the Ballot
grandpajohn
@JoyceH:
Goode has already been certified so he will be on the Ballot
grandpa john
@Town: He can’t strike him off the ballot, Goode has already been certified and therefore will be on the ballot. this is from the Constitional Parties webpage
grandpa john
And wordpress strikes again. The first two were posted using a different browser and I was told that IE could not connect with with BJ, obviously they lied, but I moved to Chrome and got through on the first try
Yutsano
@dmsilev:
Hell they’ve already started.
(Warning: Hufflepuff link)
grandpa john
@patrick II: Well it would if the decision was being make by a person of moral character and integrity. I think that most Virginians here would tell you that in this instance , neither of those personal qualities apply
JS
@dmsilev: The big money SuperPAC guys will likely act earlier next time around, and no way do they back a defeated Romney. The Kochs have Paul Ryan in position now, I’m pretty sure he’s their man for 2016. If for some reason he gets too damaged in this campaign, they have Scott Walker warming up in the bullpen.