Jim Newell has an interesting point on the GOP loyalty pledge:
And though Trump has signed this piece of paper saying he will and won’t do certain things next year, he has not signed any piece of paper requiring him to disavow the unorthodox nationalist, protectionist, tax increase–supporting agenda with which he’s carved his sizable lane. The Republican Party, however, has now committed itself to supporting this agenda, which goes against decades of its own dogma, if Trump is able to pull off the nomination. Most of today’s news has been framed as Trump signs pledge to support eventual nominee. Another way to look at it is Establishment Republican candidates pledge to support Donald Trump. Trump has not pledged to incorporate into his candidacy any of the cheerier tones or traditional Republican policies that the GOP establishment would like to see from him. The Republican Party, though, has agreed to incorporate Trump.
In bringing his politics into the fold, the GOP has also handed Trump a shield just when he might need it. Jeb Bush’s campaign has begun the offensive against Trump’s political past, putting together a montage of Trump over the years stating that he’s pro-choice, a friend and admirer of Hillary Clinton’s, and an advocate for a single-payer health care system—all delivered with the same phony conviction that he wields now to emphasize the opposite. Now, when Bush or whoever else uses these attacks against Trump on the trail or at the next debate, Trump can fire right back: Didn’t you see Reince Priebus come to my office? Didn’t you see me just pledge my support to the Republican nominee? If I were a liberal, why would I do that?
I think this is right. The loyalty oath was a stupid gimmick. Trump bluffed Reince et la. into doing it, with a threat of a third-party run, and now he’s turned it to his advantage.
schrodinger's cat
That was my analysis yesterday. This is good for Trump and bad for the Republican party.
Germy Shoemangler
Good god. Loyalty oaths. What is this, 1951?
Punchy
Man, I think Newell overanalyzed the shit outta this. Trump wanted more press coverage, so he signed it. Thats all.
BGinCHI
What is the difference between the GOP and a reactionary, white supremacy party?
Steve Schmidt doesn’t know either:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/steve-schmidt-trump-conservatism
Who wants to predict the party system after 2016? I don’t think the GOP can survive.
BGinCHI
@Germy Shoemangler: It is, for the GOP establishment. For the base it’s 1851.
zmulls
He didn’t do it for the press coverage (much). He didn’t want to lose the hard-core base over a stupid thing like a loyalty oath.
If Trump does *not* get the nomination, and he *does* decide to run as a third party candidate, there will be gnashing of teeth in the GOP, but Trump will just ask them what penalty he was supposed to pay for reneging. Take me to court! Fine me (and see if I feel like paying)! What are you gonna do, tell me I can’t ever run for President again?
Really, he knows if he decides to go third party, they can’t do jack but sputter. He will laugh at them.
BGinCHI
@zmulls: Exactly.
Breaking the oath for the reason Trump will give (“Why would I want to run in this Loser party?!”) will be great news for the angry mob that is the GOP base.
beltane
New they have Trump in the tent, pissing in the tent.
MattF
@BGinCHI: This was McCain’s campaign chief… What was his view of McCain choosing the Ice Queen for VP? He’s right now, but he played a major role in the historical runup to this point.
MattF
@zmulls: And, accurately, call them LOOZERS.
Fester Addams
Or maybe he just auctions off his endorsement to the highest bidder. Putting his name on things for money is, after all, his business.
VOR
@BGinCHI: He will give the RNC oath the same level of commitment as a marriage (on #3 right now) oath and commitment to business partners (4 bankruptcy filings). Which is to say, he’ll break it if it is convenient to do so.
Hoodie
@Punchy: Doesn’t take much analysis to see that Trump gets more out of this than the GOP establishment, who has now taken on his contract from NBC. Now, Jeb! looks even more ridiculous claiming that Trump isn’t a real Republican, because Trump is becoming the apotheosis of Republicanism, as memorialized by Reince Preibus himself. I’m starting to think that Trump has the inside track on the GOP nomination, as it seems like none of the pygmies currently running has a chance of stopping him. Carson, Rubio and Fiorina will be running for the VP slot.
MattF
@Hoodie: I think Cruz too.
catclub
@zmulls:
When all the good people are just _demanding_ that he make that third party run? How can he turn them down when the GOP establishment is the group that will be opposed? He will make the Solomonic choice to favor the demands of the people over the
GOP establishment.
Ross Perot did the same thing. Said he would not do it unless ‘the people’ got him on the ballot in all 50 states.
BGinCHI
@MattF: Doing stupid things as a Republican doesn’t mean you don’t also understand how your party works. In his case, it takes one to know one.
catclub
@VOR: Also when wife number three starts campaigning – a former model not born in the US,
and the faithful don’t say a word about breaking promises OR immigrants stealing jobs.
catclub
@BGinCHI: I think the characterization looks pretty accurate. What to do about it is not as clear,
and Schmidt is not really saying.
BGinCHI
This whole thing reminds me of a story involving a scorpion and a frog…..
debbie
Art of the deal, baby.
debbie
@BGinCHI:
My favorite version of that tale by David Rakoff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGOdikvMDho
Cervantes
@zmulls:
And who can fault him?
Overstated, therefore inaccurate, in a couple of ways, I think.
Robin G.
@BGinCHI: Nature can’t be denied.
Belafon
@Germy Shoemangler: Didn’t Nebraska or one of the middle states require teachers to sign loyalty oaths this year?
schrodinger's cat
@catclub: Trump’s restrictionista buddies in the GOP don’t like legal immigration either and write screeds railing against mass legal migration. About immigrants taking away jobs from hard working Americans or mooching off the system. When in reality more than 60% of the green cards every year are issued to spouses, parents or children of US citizens, while only 16% of the total green cards are work based.
So basically if restrictionists want to make a real dent in the number of greencards issued per year they have to go after the visas issued to direct family members of US citizens.
Germy Shoemangler
@Belafon: I didn’t know that.
srv
Those of us who recognized Trump’s genius early on are not surprised. This is what the next year is going to be like. Liberals and RINO outrage every day, and then when someone like Newell points out the real strategy, the herd will collectively realize what dupes they are.
As predicted, the last of the Reagan Democrats who actually have jobs will turn out en masse for Trump:
You people can’t even keep hold of your own thugs.
danielx
Trump will honor that agreement with the RNC for precisely as long as it suits his purposes. When it no longer serves his ends, he’ll discard it in a heartbeat and claim it’s the other guy’s fault that he can no longer abide by the terms of the contract. As others have noted, what is the RNC going to do about if he does break the agreement? Threaten to take away funding? Fire him? Throw him out of the Republican Party?
Trump doesn’t give a fiddler’s fuck about any of that.
Cermet
Really? This about trump is worth posting – please.
rikyrah
I’m still at the point where they actually BELIEVE Donald Trump on any pledge.
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Matt McIrvin
@BGinCHI: I think there are way more white people than we realize who are self-described liberals because they don’t go for the Christianist sex/religion stuff and even want more economic progressivism… but really, really hate Mexicans.
The analyses of the Republicans needing some percent of the Hispanic vote to win a presidential election always assume that they’re close to maxed out with the white vote. Suppose they’re not? I could see a Republican Party that is basically liberal or centrist by 2012 standards, except for being a white nationalist party, maybe getting significantly more than Romney’s 60%.
dedc79
@srv:
1) Didn’t see anything in there concerning union support for Trump. The members of any union that has actually dealt with the guy already despite him.
2) You’re aware, aren’t you, that Obama isn’t running for a third term?
3)
Ah, that good old republican contempt for the working class. That will work as well for you as it always does.
Botsplainer
@Germy Shoemangler:
Feels more like 1933 Weimar, but in a time of peace and relative economic sufficiency.
pacem appellant
Is it OK if I grudgingly respect The Donald? I’m not going to vote team R (I live in CA, so I guess I could and it wouldn’t make any difference), but man, this guy knows how to play the republican base AND the republican establishment. Dude’s got some mad skills, and I can’t help but admire the tactics even as I decry the substance.
boatboy_srq
@Cervantes:
Fixt.
schrodinger's cat
@Matt McIrvin: You forget that Obama was elected twice, with bigger margins than W.
Trump is popular with the GOP base. First let’s see how much of that support he can sustain until the primaries actually take place. Also popularity with the GOP base does not necessarily translate into popularity with the general election electorate. I am not ready to hit the panic button right now.
Omnes Omnibus
@Botsplainer: And a political system that has been around for more than 14 years.
Brachiator
That’s the Art of the Deal, baby. The GOP keeps treating Trump like a conventional politician, and he keeps walking away with their lunch money.
The word is also that at least one of the GOP state primaries would require that all candidates pledge to support the GOP, so Trump may not have had as much wiggle room as some suggest, but he still turned things to his advantage.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodinger’s cat: Exactly. These polls are of GOP voters not the general electorate. The man is popular among self-declared assholes.
Amir Khalid
So Trump now has the Republican party by the balls, which Reince Priebus put on a plate for him. I don’t think I feel sorry for either the Donald or the Republicans.
The party has tied itself to a candidate who knows how to win a brawl, but doesn’t know jack about the issues he’ll have to deal with in office. This TPM story gives a taste of The Donald trying to bluster his way out of answering a substantive policy question. The guy’s not one to do his homework. It’s going to show.
catclub
@Matt McIrvin:
Except the first half of that statement shatters all the NR and Townhall conservatives, plus shatters the money party, plus shatter the Neocon party, and the second part doubles the turnout of Latinos in opposition. Also, no anti-abortion glue. So, no.
catclub
@schrodinger’s cat:
I think the hate he engendered in the Latino press and people is forgotten by the mainstream press, but not at Univision.
Tommy
@pacem appellant: Nope because I am with you. The guy is playing them like a fiddle. I might miss a few things here or there. Not a far right dude. But best I can tell he is working them. I don’t mean that in a positive sense.
schrodinger's cat
@catclub: Not just Latino press, anchor babies (of voting age) and their immigrant parents who are citizens, are not going to forget it either.
Shana
I seem to recall seeing or reading something yesterday where Trump said that now that the GOP is treating him with respect he’s happy to sign the pledge. However, once they stop doing that (in his opinion) all bets are off.
BTW, my take on the Cruz bromance is that he’s hoping for one of two things, if Trump implodes Cruz is positioning himself to pick up Trump’s supporters, or he’s angling for VP.
Chris
@srv:
Dude, I would not be eating this much popcorn if I were outraged. I am DELIGHTED.
Jeffro
@MattF: Cruz most especially.
Cervantes
@boatboy_srq:
Newell’s words, not mine. Sorry if that was unclear.
Amir Khalid
@Shana:
I don’t know why, but I tend to think of Ted Cruz as an Iago in the making.
Jeffro
Looks like Steve Schmidt just discovered Cleek’s law:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/steve-schmidt-trump-conservatism
Jeffro
@Amir Khalid: Iago, via Wikipedia:
I’d say you’re about dead-on with that comparison to Cruz…
Hoodie
@Matt McIrvin: The GOP base has always been for socialism within the tribe, just not for the Other, because the latter doesn’t “deserve” it. They’ve been hoodwinked into denying social programs for the themselves because of that but, if you suddenly promise to throw 11 million Hispanics out of the country, they’ll be all for some government cheese (until they start worrying it will go to other undeserving populations). The culture war stuff is really important to a segment of the GOP base. Your typical GOP base voter probably still thinks abortion and gay sex is icky, but it’s not their primary interest. Trump knows that.
Botsplainer
@Fester Addams:
You chose the finest nym in all the internet.
Kudos!
srv
@dedc79:
Exactly. Tell me about all the minorities that swept Obama into office voting for Bernie or the liberals with white guilt watching their jobs dry up voting for Hillary.
You’re like a gladiator that thinks you’re facing a defanged Cuck poodle. Trump is a populist lion. There isn’t going to be a dragon for your next messiah-lite to jump on.
dan
Trump signed a contract? Good luck to you, Reince.
Signed, ex-wives and stiffed creditors.
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
The Republicans may still be in hot water if they cannot cool the anti-Latino rhetoric. Let’s look at an analysis:
Let’s look at key states:
In 2012, Romney got 23 percent of the Latino vote.
The GOP was really counting on Bush or Rubio to bring the Latino vote to the party. If Trump continues to lead but downplays criticism of Rubio, look for a deal to be made.
dedc79
@srv: You’re the one who cited to Obama’s approval ratings with unions as somehow being proof that Trump will win these voters. And when I point out that Obama’s favorability has no bearing on Hillary’s (or Trump’s) chances with union voters, you go running off in a different direction.
Listen, I’m not opposed to occasional trolling. Arguing is more interesting than agreeing. But do you have to be so freaking dumb and lazy about it? At least make us do some work.
Amir Khalid
@srv:
Why not use the word in full? We’re all grownups here.
boatboy_srq
@Cervantes: It was the meaning I fixt, not the quote. Commentary on what the GOTea has wanted vs. what it’s actually asked for. You’re good.
gogol's wife
@Amir Khalid:
It sounds dirtier that way.
Gee, I hope this new slur gains wide acceptance, then I won’t have to explain the word “cuckold” to my students any more. Or what it means to “wear horns.”
boatboy_srq
@Tommy: Same here.
@Amir Khalid: It would be delicious if the Trumping of the GOTea led to the most massive electoral defeat the party has suffered since 1932.
And yes, even now, watching this dog-and-pony show, the only thing in my head is Toy Dolls’ “Nellie the Elephant”.
trollhattan
@srv:
Still waiting for RtR and you to be in the same thread for a jeb-trump chickfight. Mrrrow. Am guessing there’s a fundamental reason it hasn’t happened and only one of the possible reasons is you’re both DougJ.
Tao of Nope
“They have my name on a piece of paper.”
NonyNony
@trollhattan:
Eh – Right To Rise doesn’t really get into fights and only seems to post in one thread per day. His posts tend to be relentlessly positive and very much on target. I think that’s why of all of the trolls we’ve ever had here, he’s actually the first that I really think might be scamming someone into paying him to troll us instead of just doing it for shits and giggles.
schrodinger's cat
@NonyNony: Rtr’s style is very reminiscent of the pro Romney troll of the last cycle. He used to have a different handle then, I am blanking on it right now.
ETA: srv used to be ironic and tongue cheek before Trump, now he is just offensive. I don’t think they are the same person.
srv
@dedc79: You don’t do your own work. You’re like the internet kiddies at reddit – if there isn’t wiki on it, it didn’t happen.
If Obama can barely make half the unions today, and yet you imagine they’re going to get their rage on for Hillary… NAFTA, GATT, WTO and TPP baggage – wait for her stance on letting in droves of ME refugees… Union Made Winning!
I remember Reagan, and I remember all those union people voting for him. Some of us can accept reality, and some of us have to wait for a poll to tell us what it is.
trollhattan
@schrodinger’s cat:
I don’t remember either but everyone knows him as UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH! and we know with 98% certainty RtR is one and the same. Bookmark it, libs!
Like sodium and water, RtR and srv cannot exist in the same container without an explosion and yet, it needs to happen. DougJ, use your magical powers and make it so!
Bobby Thomson
@trollhattan: no, there was a thread. RtR is DougJ or another parody troll. srv is a classic troll.
Bobby Thomson
@schrodinger’s cat: the same, but the strain of the pro-Trump character is getting to him/her. It’s too limiting.
trollhattan
@Bobby Thomson:
In this case, which one is playing the role of PUMA?
benw
@dan:
That gives me a great idea. Imagine if the RNC got Trump to sign a pre-nup as a condition for signing the stupid loyalty oath? If he breaks it, they get paid like an ex-wife!
srv
@NonyNony: Liberals like to make fun about how paranoid and conspiracy-minded aging conservatives get.
protip: It’s got nothing to do with the conservative or liberal part.
@Bobby Thomson:
I never thought there would be a candidate who could pierce the gliberal bubble, but Trump could be it. Hopefully, you people will realize that before it is too late.
? Martin
@Jeffro: Actually a bit worse than that. The GOP Congress, which has banked on doing precisely fucking nothing has created an electorate that hates them for doing nothing. Trumps supporters don’t just hate everything that the Dems support, they hate everything that the GOP establishment supports as well.
Put short, Trump is the meteor, and the primary voters are steering him toward their destination of choice.
trollhattan
@srv:
Indeed. In a world littered with lemons it would be irresponsible not to make infinite gallons of lemonade. Care for a glass?
dedc79
@srv: I get it. You’re still stuck in 1984 (the year, not the novel). That explains a lot, actually.
Chris
@? Martin:
The suspense is killing me. I hope it’ll last.
catclub
Who is more likely to keep their word; Donald Trump or the Iranians?
srv
@dedc79:
An 18 year-old in 1984 will be 50 in 2016.
Try to listen when you get in an elevator. This is what you’ll hear:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billboard_Year-End_Hot_100_singles_of_1984
Matt McIrvin
@schrodinger’s cat: Not only is RtR the pro-Romney troll of the last cycle, I’m pretty sure he was also a pro-McCain troll in the cycle before that. He called himself “Reality Check” at one point. The super-confident predictions that he keeps cranking out even after they come up absurdly wrong, the gloating about how his guy’s superior moneys will crush everyone else any moment now, it’s all there.
srv only turned into an overt pro-Trump right-wingnut very recently; before that he was an impossible-to-pin-down ironic snarker who seemed like a liberal about half the time.
As to whether either of them is actually DougJ or Andy Kaufman reincarnated I have no opinion. But their writing styles are different.
Jeffro
@? Martin: I already know this, so perhaps tell Steve Schmidt? I’m sure he won’t be the last GOP operative who stumbles across the amazing revelation that a majority of the GOP base has disconnected from the issues and is now simply voting on the basis of whomever gives full vent to their anger.
I mean, 30+ years of reflexively opposing whatever Dems/liberals want w/ not a moment’s consideration of the actual issue or facts at hand…this is what y’all get, Goopers. Just be glad Obama doesn’t make a PSA in favor of breathing.
HNiC
This analysis of Trump is way off. No way Trump will win the GOP nomination. NO WAY.
Even if he does run as a independent Trump’s campaign won’t change the outcome of the election. Democrats will win no matter who’s the GOP nominee, and in a three-way race Trump splits the Republican vote. This move by Reince is just to get Teump supporters more aligned with the GOP so when he doesn’t win the nomination the party can say, “we represent all the things Trump stands for” while ignoring his policy goals. Trump’s campaign doesn’t even change the GOP house or senate races. He’s got no party apparatus or think tanks or anything else to influence public policy. As soon as the election is over Trump’s influence goes to zero.
JoeShabadoo
The reason the loyalty oath is worthless is because it doesn’t take away Trump’s threat to run third party which is the power. A pledge that breaking would only weaken a sure lose spoiler run does nothing. Trump has no desire to waste time and money as a third party candidate since he has no chance of winning but he does value the ability to threaten the GOP with a third party run giving him a lot of control and protection. That threat is already out there and he doesn’t need to repeat it. The oath doesn’t stop this threat if they don’t play fair and the oath doesn’t change his prospects if he runs as a third party.
Bobby Thomson
@srv: speaking of thugs.
Tommy
@boatboy_srq: People do not understand. My mom was a Republican until the last election or two. Check the box they had her vote. But she got all crazy and thought Obama was smart. Voted for him. Mom and I might think different things, but maybe her son is not crazy and maybe I might have a point. Listen!
boatboy_srq
@Jeffro:
Can’t we have one of those? Please?
boatboy_srq
@Tommy: Know the sensation. So was mine. Moment of Clarity came when saw her writing a cheque to Nature Conservancy and I asked “You do realize that you’re sending all that money to them and to the rest like them so they can fight the people you keep voting for, don’t you?” THEN it clicked. Talk about about-face, too: she changed her party affiliation, voted straight Dem (only two elections before she passed, but I like to think it counted).
sukabi
@zmulls: yeah. The oath means squat. Besides, what it might do is hurt trump a tiny bit with all his ‘not another establishment politician’ supporters. But overall, not going to do what Preibus thinks.
Larv
@boatboy_srq:
“Off she rode with a trumpety trump trump trump trump”?
Jeffro
@boatboy_srq: The man is a rock…the temptation must be overwhelming. I’m surprised he doesn’t settle for something mean-but-survivable, like an executive order banning eyebrow shaving for men and no-hawks for women.
Brachiator
@catclub:
Neither?
sinnedbackwards
@boatboy_srq: I expect you mean 1936.
“As Maine goes, so goes Vermont.”
OmerosPeanut
“Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s” Matthew 22:21.
She should be familiar with this passage and realize what it calls on her to do. Even if we were willing to accept that her views on Christian morality in marriage are somehow “correct” she’s still failing to follow explicit directions from her God.
Terrible public servant. Poor Christian as well.
Medicine Man
I don’t know if srv is just a troll or not but I do think he has a point about overestimating how badly Trump would get beaten in the general election. Trump has already shown that he is willing to advocate populist economic ideas alongside all of that virulent nativism. This is a combination that suits the GOP base quite well but will also appeal to a certain segment of the Dem base if the economic ideas are advanced aggressively enough. A certain kind of white voter will be quite capable of rationalizing away the ugly parts of Trump’s campaign (he’s just pandering, he doesn’t really mean it, etc) if he promises to halt the hollowing out of the middle class. Think about the reaction to BLM at the Sanders rallies. Race is not a priority for some Dems, certainly not the way it is for the GOP base. Being able to roll the dice on a protest vote like Trump is a privilege that some people are going to exercise.
J R in WV
@boatboy_srq:
My Mom voted for the Democratic candidate for president twice, because of the Republican party’s position on abortion, CHOICE for women!
She told me as a bed-ridden elderly woman dying from COPD – Pall-Mall cigarettes killed her as much as if they were .45 bullets! She said “Don’t tell your father, but I voted against the Republicans, because I am sick of their positions on women’s right to choose abortion!” Twice!
I am sure it was because she lost a dear friend or even a cousin, back in the 40s or 50s, from a back door abortion that went bad. She was as livid as a person short of oxygen could be.
I never said a word to Dad, although it might have made him think a little about his knee-jerk intention to vote Republican no matter what.
My Mom wasn’t a liberal, but she sure as hell wasn’t any part of what the Republicans have become today. I have to think she would have laughed at Trump and the R’s today. And she was kind to people who were hurting.
Back in the 1950s there were 400,000 men laid off in the WV coal fields. They were hard working men who went underground and busted ass for a huge shift of work, mostly with hand tools, digging and shoveling coal with picks and shovels and dynamite.
By the end of the 1950s there were more like 80,000 men working in the coal mines of WV. And we had husky strong men knocking on the front door. They would ask Mom if she had any work that they could do for a little money or groceries, because their wife and children were out of food if he didn’t get some work that day!
She would have them cut brush, rake weeds, etc, build a pile of trees and brush to burn later on, and she put together a couple of big brown paper bags full of groceries, AND a couple of $20s to boot. And the guys knew she cared for their families, and would have come back the next day to work all day for her.
It was a horrible time for workers. Before the machines came into the mines, they would have coal festivals, and one of the big events was the coal shoveling contest. Who could shovel a car full of coal the fastest?!? Or could shovel the most coal in an hour? And the answer was always vastly more coal than you would think any human could move in an hour.
Those days are over now. Mom has been dead since 1997. And hard work isn’t worth a dime if you can’t read and write on a computer.
Duane
@J R in WV: