By this time in the '08 race, Obama aides had called Clinton (D-Punjab) and Clinton was talking about the concerns of "white Americans."
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) January 28, 2016
So the Clinton/Sanders race doesn't feel QUITE so negative
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) January 28, 2016
That having been said, some more room for speculation:
Finally, an IA poll (@ppppolls's) asks O'Malley backers to reallocate, as will most certainly happen Monday night: they choose Sanders 57-27
— Taniel (@Taniel) January 29, 2016
The geographic distribution of O'Malley's supporters matters a lot here https://t.co/0IKA59hfL2
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) January 29, 2016
@Taniel @ppppolls only matters if very close; assuming O'M keeps 2% (like Richardson 08), that split of remaining 5% only nets Sanders ~2%
— Cyrus (@cnbordbar) January 29, 2016
As I understand this, if O’Malley’s caucus supporters are mostly in the same precincts (read: university-adjacent) as Sanders supporters, switching to Bernie won’t much improve his final delegate count. But if the O’Malley hardliners are better distributed, the Sanders people can actually pick up delegates that would otherwise have gone to Clinton. Is this correct?
And, if so, how likely are the Sandernistas to convince O’Malley voters to join them?
BruceFromOhio
Le sigh.
Felonius Monk
@BruceFromOhio:
Exactly.
How’s things in Akron?
TaMara (BHF)
Is Nate at 538 still the go-to? Here’s the latest there.
Jared
Re: incorrect about O’Malley. The finer his distribution, the more likely his supporters will help Sanders, assuming they are breaking for him heavily and on a uniform basis.
If O’Malley’s support is uniform, he won’t reach 15% anywhere, since he’s well below that in the polls, meaning all his supporters will be eliminated from delegate contention and have to switch.
If his support is sporadic, he may actually get to 15% in some places and those supporters will not help Bernie because they won’t be forced to switch at all.
Sadly (from Bernie’s perspective) this probably won’t help him much. Let’s assume best case scenario for Bernie – ALL of MOM’s supporters are eliminated and break for Bernie at the 30% net rate. MOM’s support in Iowa is 4.3% per RCP average, so that nets Bernie only 1.29 percent of the vote. That’s less than the estimate mentioned above.
dogwood
I think it all depends on how many of O’Malley’s people actually turn out. If a candidate doesn’t make the 15% threshold the supporters are lobbied to go elsewhere. If the O’Malley contingent only makes up 5% of the caucus goers in a given site, they could all go to one of the other candidates without making any significant difference. Second choices were a bit more significant in ’08 when in many instances there were as many as 5 candidates who didn’t make the threshold.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
I just got bullied all night about not feeling the Bern by my 60 yr old white Bernfeeler husband who loves loves loves Obama, when I said I really wanted to vote for O’Malley. He said I’m doin’ it wrong, Hillary sucks, O’Malley can’t win, so what’s the difference if a Dem can’t do anything anyway because GOP Congress, FEELTHEBERN ELEVENTY!!!ONE11111
I told him that yelling at me is definitely not going to work. Then we had a policy discussion about the importance of process and party, and then his hand waving away of all that started. Fuck me running.
I really like Martin O’Malley and will be proud to vote for him in the primary.
Anyone seen askew around these parts?
BruceFromOhio
@Felonius Monk: Akrony.
Yeah, it’s a word.
ETA @the Conster, la Citoyenne: MrsFromOhio had the same trade of opinion in aught 8 when I was supporting John Edwards. ‘Wasted vote,’ she claimed.
Felonius Monk
@BruceFromOhio: Is the Diamond Grill still in business?
yegg
Ugh, I hate that I’m invested in the outcome of this now.
Kropadope
@efgoldman: MA is part of Super Tuesday, so if the first few contests are either split evenly or won predominantly by Bernie, Super Tuesday will be a huge deal. That was where Obama really lost his footing, resulting in the prolonged 2008 primary.
dogwood
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
I get why some people love, love, love Bernie. What I don’t get is why people who love Obama are so hot for Bernie. Sanders gave an interview today criticizing the President. I can see how that is effective for Dems who have never been happy with POTUS, but dems who like the prez, not so much.
BruceFromOhio
@Felonius Monk: Evidently, tho things with ‘Diamond’ in the title rarely cross my orbits.
amk
maggie, the hackberman? really?
maeve
In 2008 I was in a caucus (in Alaska) – the rec room in the senior citizen center had a sign “occupancy 200” = there were over 300 people there (in Alaska you can re-register at the door to be a democrat and a lot of “undeclared” were re-registering as democrats.
[ By comparison in 2010 I went to a caucus and there were maybe 20 people there.]
When we “fanned out” we had to shuffle across the room to our place. The counters stood on tables to try to count. The rule was if less than 15% you are out – only Clinton and Obama were over that threshold. The others were allowed to re-vote on the 2nd count. Only one person (for Richardson) refused to re-vote – we applauded him.
So we re-shuffled for the next fan-out and got the phone-in votes from the rural communities in our same area- and apportioned our delegates for Clinton or Obama. Then when it came to party business almost everyone left. I stayed – which is how I came to be a delegate to the state convention (they don’t pay your way and you can’t drive from where we lived to where the state convention was but I had lots of airline miles)
At the state convention we did another fan-out. Our district potentially had 9 delegates but only 5 were there because you had to pay your own way (expensive in Alaska). The Anchorage Obama group bused their delegates down to the state fair grounds in Palmer (where the convention was held) and for the fan-out where well represented.
Which is to say – in caucus states it is the most well-organized and passionate who can prevail. Obama knew that well. Psychologically a win in Iowa can play a big role and he built up the delegate math by knowing what to do. At our state convention (in May) he had a personal video message (recorded in Puerto Rico) and the Hilary Clinton message was not from her but from a state party person pleading on her behalf.
I have hesitations about Bernie but not because he’s an “outsider” – but that’s another story.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@efgoldman:
It’s not about the electoral outcome for me, it’s that hand-waving away dismissive attitude towards President Obama’s accomplishments, that apparently Bernie’s bros want him to repudiate. I can’t see beyond that.
Kropadope
@dogwood: Even if one “loves, loves, loves” both Bernie and Obama, that person is still very unlikely to find her to be perfect. So, if Bernie and/or Obama were to honestly and accurately criticize the other that’s no reason for a fan of both to start hating one of the two.
In my case, Bernie’s the only one of a score of candidates I’d place on the right side of the ham sandwich divide.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
Clinton and Obama split the first four openers and tied on Super Tuesday. At that point no one had really lost their footing. The primary was prolonged because after failing miserablely during Feburary, Clinton decided to prolong it. There were plenty of states left that she could win, problem was she couldn’t win them by wide enough margins to make up for what she lost in Feb.
Major Major Major Major
I’m still a Baudhisattva.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@dogwood:
Cornel West is repping for Bernie in South Carolina. I can’t see beyond that.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
You’re probably right. I also think that when you really love a candidate, you aren’t all that analytical about it.
maeve
@efgoldman:
I would say a lot of people think he’s an outsider to the predicted Dem establishment – which can be thought of in his favor – Obama was an outsider (not the predicted favorite dem establishment candidate) regardless of track record.
Kropadope
@dogwood:
Super Tuesday was a huge loss for Obama, he lost almost every state including all the large ones. It would have been fatal to a lesser candidate, but his focus on how to rack up delegates in caucuses was inspired. If I remember correctly, he even drew more delegates from Texas’s dual primary-caucus process after losing the vote.
Nonetheless, the outcome was very close and Hillary probably would have won if she hadn’t lost her superdelegates when she fell behind during the aforementioned string of February losses.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
I’d also add that when you really hate a candidate, you’re not that analytical either. In ’08, I really couldn’t stand John Edwards. I hesitated to even argue against him because I knew my distaste wasn’t all that rational.
Felonious Monk
@BruceFromOhio: Not mine either, but their steaks used to be excellent. BTW I grew up in Medina, so I knew the area well at one time. Not so much anymore.
Omnes Omnibus
@maeve: Obama was not an outsider. He was the 2004 keynote speaker at the Dem Convention. In 2004, he was an up and coming D politician who was being tagged as a future presidential candidate. In 2008, was a sitting senator. He was no outsider. He was not the odds on favorite going into the primaries, but that is far different from being an outsider.
amk
@Kropadope:
“Super Tuesday was a huge loss for Obama, he lost almost every state including all the large ones. ”
bullshit.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
Results on Super Tuesday 2008:
Clinton – 12 states won, 834 delegates
Obama – 11 states won, 847 delegates
If that’s what you call losing almost every state, I don’t know what you would call a draw.
Kropadope
@efgoldman:
His aura of sleaze definitely shone through, at least a little bit. Personally I chalked that up to his being a trial lawyer with a haircut that was too much in more ways than one and loser stink from 04. I never would have imagined his cheating on his dying wife.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
Are you sticking by your claim that Obama lost almost every state on Super Tuesday?
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: I would say that neither one is/was. Senators aren’t outsiders. With the exception of Cruz who works very hard at it.
danielx
Tendentious they are, reason they will not – sorry, channeling a movie character there for a moment. And I was actually thinking that no matter whether Sanders or Clinton are leading at the moment, it’s a long time until November. And thinking further that it has occurred to both Sanders and Clinton that they would each rather be where they are right now than to be any one of the Republican candidates, Trump included. Especially Trump, nobody (nobody with a hint of compassion and self-awareness, that is) would want to be Donald Trump except Donald Trump.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kropadope: Trial lawyers are sleazy? Interesting. I hope nothing bad ever happens to you as a result of corporate malfeasance. Dog knows that you would hate to employ a trial lawyer to vindicate your rights.
Omnes Omnibus
@danielx: I don’t want to shorten my fingers.
Kropadope
@dogwood: My mistake. There were a lot of states the mix that I didn’t think happened til later. In the haze of a decade passing, I may have taken my disappointment with Obama’s loss of my home state of MA and populous California, then conflated it with another day of several lactates voting where Hillary did very well (I believe it was Ohio, Texas, and a third state).
@amk:
Didn’t your parents ever teach you manners?
Kropadope
@Omnes Omnibus: I never said cultural tropes were fair. Plus his demeanor and slick shininess didn’t help. I like all the lawyers I know personally very well.
ETA: As you will note, my criticism of his perceived character flaws was multifactorial (and I never said all-inclusive either). So, either you don’t read very closely (unlikely since you yourself are a lawyer IIRC) or you are responsible for perpetuating the trope by being a sleazy lawyer yourself.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
It can all get pretty jumbled up. For some reason I have a good memory for political detail. I lose my keys regularly, and can’t remember all kinds of shit , but election stuff sticks with me.
The whole stuff about who wins big states in primaries is pretty silly to me. One of the arguments Clinton made that the media glommed onto was this notion that if Obama couldn’t win the big state primaries, he couldn’t win the general. No one claimed that McCain getting his clocked cleaned by Huckabee all over the South meant McCain was in trouble in Dixie in the general election. Obama edged Clinton out in California on Election Day, but lost in the early voting that started before the Iowa caucuses even happened and the other candidates had dropped out.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kropadope: Then why mention the trial lawyer thing?
FWIW, I am not a trial lawyer. So nothing personal here. Aside from the sideways swipe at the profession.
maeve
Okay – my comment about Obama being an outsider – he was not the initially predicted candidate. As is not Sander. Besides being who he (Obama) was and winning on his own behalf – he (or Axelrod or Plouffe) knew how to play the delegate math. And caucus states are in fact really weird.
In my own personal experience – I never expected to be delagate to the state convention – but I showed up at the local caucus – and then when it came to having people go to the state convention I volunteered because I had enough airline miles to get there – etc.
Same thing worked when the libertarians (temporarilly) took over the Alaska state republican party – in an off election year when hardly anyone shows up at the caucus they were the people who stayed and voted on the party seats (and then there was a lawsuit … )
Omnes Omnibus
@maeve: Like I said, there is a difference between being an outsider and not being the expected winner.
Redshift
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: The Bernie bros may exacerbate it, but I don’t think it’s driven by them. You can’t run a campaign based on the idea that things are terrible and the whole system needs to be overthrown to fix them without simultaneously making the case that Obama didn’t accomplish much, even if you don’t say it outright.
For example, I was at a party with some of my old Deaniac friends, and unfortunately some other Deaniacs who I never had any interest in keeping in touch with. Most of them were Bernie supporters, unsurprisingly. At one point, a couple of them were having an animated discussion in the kitchen about how healthcare is still really terrible, and people can’t afford to go to the doctor and are still going bankrupt. I didn’t get involved, but it was unmistakeable that if you’re going to argue that single payer is absolutely essential now (instead of just something we’d like to work toward), you have to convince yourself that the ACA is terrible.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
Cultural tropes aren’t fair, but at least it’s something. I was always pretty sure that”John Edwards creeps me out” wasn’t a winning argument for his fans.
Kropadope
@dogwood:
It may also be that that the results of 50 individual elections spread out over months with an already-determined cumulative outcome is less interesting to me and thus less deserving of memory space than, say, details of public policy or my favorite Street Fighter’s moveset.
The fact that every American didn’t immediately disown the mainstream media upon the rampant conjecture that Obama couldn’t win NY or MA in the general because he lost them in the primary is so disheartening. This wasn’t the Iraq War lies, even a split second of applied historically-informed reasoning would show that Obama wasn’t at risk in the big liberal states. Was Hillary going to lose Minnesota or California in the general? Doubtful.
Oh, yeah, I forgot about that. I still love early, convenient voting anyway.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Kropadope lives is in Boston. If something bad happens to him/her, a call to a lawyer will happen. PI attorneys, civil rights attorneys, and such fill a need in this society. Abuses happen.
dogwood
@Omnes Omnibus:
I don’t think Krop was trying to be provocative or to insult anyone. There are sleazy people in every profession. To me Ewards reminded my of a guy who travels a lot professionally and spends the off hours practicing pick up lines in hotel bars. The fact that he was unfaithful never surprised me all that much. Maybe it’s a woman thing. I used to watch campaign events on CSPAN’s road to the White House. It always struck me that when Elizabeth was speaking on stage, John was never paying attention to her. He was always preening for the audience. Nonetheless, I’m well aware that my distaste for him precluded me giving him a fair shot.
Goblue72
Go ahead establishment Dems – vote the establishment in the year that decades of growing economic anxiety finally manifest themselves. For all you claiming fear of a Trump candidacy, not all states are equally important.
Kropadope
@efgoldman:
I’m a man and, if I’m not mistaken, I’m in the very same media market as you.
@Omnes Omnibus:
Sorry, I didn’t mean it like that. In my mind the “with haircut” part of that was a major component of the trial lawyer part of my sentence. That’s why I used “with” and not a comma. I also have a very Republican family and very Libertarian social cohort. I hear a lot of complaints about “ambulance chasers.”
IIRC correctly, I once raised another trope about lawyers using coke, perhaps having picked up the habit as mental support during law school. You took exception to that too, and I’m sorry for that too. That said, in my mind that added to a cool mystique that surrounded lawyers in my mind, even though I rather dislike that drug.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Redshift: You’re overthinking this in an effort to rationalize Clinton.
“Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.”
Amir Khalid
Let’s see Najib whitewash this. That’s north of sixteen billion ringgit gone missing from Malaysian state-owned companies.
Kropadope
@dogwood:
Eh, don’t worry about it. The facts don’t matter here, nor do my apologies or my explanations of the background surrounding my comment. Omnes is just unpleasant and I’m pretty sure aggressively dislikes me. There have been other instances where I said nothing rude and Omnes has come to me with provocations that may or may not have been on topic or relevant to what I actually said.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Kropadope: Have you thought about dropping the “Kropa” prefix?
Just Some Fuckhead
Obama: We need change!
People: Yes!
Sanders: We need more change!
Clinton Supporters: Oh for christ’s sake, we already did that.
Kropadope
@Just Some Fuckhead: So, as has been clearly demonstrated on this thread, I own up to my own mistakes and will acknowledge my biases. This is somehow bad? Man, your name is apt.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Kropadope:
I get that a lot.
dogwood
@Kropadope:
And since I do have a decent political memory, Maggie H’s tweet is only half correct. The Obama people did refer to Clinton as (D Punjab) prior to the Iowa caucuses, but Clinton didn’t start her hard -working white folks schtick until late winter and early spring when she was scrambling. At this point in the campaign the Clintonites were going after his kindergarten essays.
Kropadope
@dogwood:
I believe that was while she was campaigning in West Virginia. ETA: Preliminary Google searches place this and the comments in May.
Geniuses, that crowd.
BillinGlendaleCA
@dogwood: And Bill saying, “even Jessie Jackson won South Carolina twice”.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Kropadope:
you’re an idiot.
Obama won 13 states. Hillary won 10 states.
Obama won 847 delegates. Hillary won 834 delegates.
Kropadope
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: That discussion has already been had. I was mistaken, I was conflating two separate days. There is also no need for that tone. The word is “wrong.”
BillinGlendaleCA
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Obviously you’ve not read down to the point in this thread where we’re supposed to have manners now. I think it was some rule thought up by Fuckhead the Thought Leader.
dogwood
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
All that was straightened out up thread
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Final of Australian Open on ESPN
Serena vs one of Sanders’s hard working whites.
Mai.naem.mobile
I had forgotten the Clinton – D Punjab kerfuffle but its funny looking back at it now after seeing how many Indian Americans Obama has had involved in his admin and how friendly he’s been to Indian leaders.
I was an Edwards supporter partly because I couldn’t imagine this country voting for a black guy and as the.campaign went on I became more anti-Clinton and their dog whistle crap. I remember Bob Kerrey on some interview on MSNBC repeatedly enunciating ‘Barack Hussein Obama’ instead of Obama or Senator Obama. A-hole.
Anne Laurie
@dogwood:
I was an Edwards supporter, because — like Charlie Pierce — I’m a sucker for a good populist rant. Honestly didn’t pay much attention to his personal attributes; the last presidential candidate I found sexy was Mike Dukakis, and that made me one of three women in America who did. The revelations about Rielle Hunter after the fact surprised me, to the degree that I can be surprised by what other people choose to do with their genitals (not much), but I hadn’t planned to add him to my social circle, just to vote for him.
Tommy
I have lived in a lot of places. IL, TX, KA, LA, VA, MA, DC. If I did what they did armed police would come in and gun me down. The restraint of the FBI and others was stunning.
Anne Laurie
@Mai.naem.mobile:
IIRC, President Obama told the Politico interviewer just this week that he now “regrets the tone” of some of the stuff his campaign did in 2008. HRClinton’s apologized for her “hard-working white people” comment, and the stuff Bill/her supporters threw around.
Point being — as per the title here — politics ain’t beanbag, and things get said in the heat of a campaign that will have to be walked back afterwards. I’m as happy as any Democrat to encourage the various Repub candidates to work up never-to-be-forgotten hate matches, because I want them to be shivving each other all the way to Cleveland and beyond (hopefully, the internecine warfare will keep them distracted for the next decade or longer). But it’s silly to pretend that Hillary’s supporters and Bernie’s have individually or collectively reached a new depth of mud-flinging partisanship which in an earlier age would’ve called for pistols at dawn.
Keith G
An interesting tidbit from local Iowa reporting is that the registration of new voters (in either party) is not as elevated as one might think in races where important candidates are claiming that they will win by bringing in new voters.
This time 8 yrs ago, they say, it was clear the the Obama folks were tirelessly, and successfully, expanding the voter roles. That raises the question of now much of Sanders’ poll support will actually show up to a caucus.
Betty Cracker
@Anne Laurie: In that same interview, PBO also said, “in 2007 and 2008, sometimes my supporters and my staff, I think, got too huffy about what were legitimate questions she [Clinton] was raising.” I wish a competent reporter had conducted that interview rather than a dim-witted Politico hack because it would be interesting to know which specific incidents he was thinking of. Oh well, I guess we’ll have to wait for the memoir.
I like President Obama a lot. I was an early supporter, campaign donor, phone-banker, canvasser, etc. I’m going to miss him when his term is up. But I won’t miss the self-appointed Guardians of the Obama Legacy who parse everyone else’s utterances for perceived slights. It’s tiresome. To his credit, I think PBO finds it absurd too, as per the above quote.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
That interviewer was awful, but the interview was interesting.
Zinsky
Just my gut talking here, but O’Malley supporters seem more likely to go over to the more centrist Hillary camp than to Bernies – IMHO.
Elizabelle
Good morning, all.
While I rustle up my coffee, Felonius Monk put this up on the Malheur Loons thread last night. It’s catchy.
Grow yourself an earworm, this chilly Saturday morning.
Snacks and Socks — the Ballad of LaVoy Finicum by singer-songwriter Shawn Patterson.
dogwood
@Baud:
I don’t think Thrush did a bad job with the interview. He let the president talk, seemed to listen to the answers and often seemed to base his next question on something the president said. The premise of the interview was to have Obama speak about the state of the 2016 democratic race. And that’s what the president did quite thoughtfully.
Baud
@dogwood: it did work out because the president’s comments were interesting, but I didn’t think the interviewer could articulate his questions well. He sounded to me like a kid reporting for a high school paper.
dogwood
@Baud:
Since Thrush was on the ground in Iowa during the 2008 campaign, he seemed more like a guy who wanted to share some war stories with someone who was also there. I don’t have a problem with that.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud:
Ah, it is Politico.
Baud
@Anne Laurie:
I agree. This primary had been relatively tame IMHO.
ETA: Baud! supporters should feel free to take no prisoners, however.
amk
Isn’t ann selzer’s poll supposed to come out tonight? Or is it tomorrow night?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
What a match.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@amk: yes. approximately at 10PM
amk
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Thank you.
glaukopis
@Major Major Major Major: Or maybe we could call ourselves Bauts?
dogwood
@Betty Cracker:
During the ’08 primaries when Peggy Noonan was going after Clinton and praising Obama, she actually said something that resonated with me. She noted that Obama seemed to be able to think as he spoke, as if he trusted himself , unlike most politicians who seem to have pat answers memorized to the point where they don’t even have to take a breath. I think there’s some truth to that. In an interview when he’s allowed to fully answer, I’m not always sure what he will say. I think that’s what makes him interesting.
amk
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
serena seems to be having a mental block about graf’s record. two golden chances missed. but she said last week she has no more fucks to give. so there is that.
Baud
@dogwood:
I’m confident that was sincere.
Let us savor.
amk
@Baud: he is a typical bw hack like cilizza and dick hackperin. how these morons keep their jobs beats me.
Betty Cracker
@dogwood: That’s why it’s so ridiculous when wingnuts invoke the “teleprompter” bullshit. They cannot have ever actually listened to the man speak. For me, the most impressive example of PBO’s ability to think on his feet was the healthcare summit back when he was trying to push the ACA though Congress. He responded to all the grandstanding speechifying from questioners with reason backed by data and details.
dogwood
@amk:
Playing to break records isn’t the best way to play any game. If she really loves playing, she’ll break the record.
Tommy
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Serena is a total stud and a class act. I had a tennis racket put in my hands (along with a golf club) when I was still in the crib. When you or others might have had Christmas break or summer time I was at tennis camps. I know good tennis! Serena is so good. At first I thought because of my age nobody could be better than Navratilova or then Graf. But she is far superior.
dogwood
@Betty Cracker:
Everything wingnuts do is ridiculous and not a one of them is remotely interesting.
magurakurin
@amk: Saturday at 5:45. There will be a live stream broadcast. A lot of build up for a poll number. But it will be interesting to see what it has to say. The last three polls have been quite good for Clinton. There also seems to be a mood over at KOS anticipating a Sanders loss. There was a diary today calling for Sanders to be the VP if he loses the nomination. I think there is a growing sense that if Sanders loses in Iowa, the race is effectively over. If he wins, he is still in it, but with a hard fight. But I don’t see how he recovers from losing Iowa. Stranger things have happened I suppose, but Bernie Sanders isn’t going to win the nomination.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@magurakurin: your link is broken. can you fix. Thanks.
Baud
@magurakurin:
LOL. How ridiculous. It’s like boookies during a big TV event the night before a Superbowl.
dogwood
@magurakurin:
There’s a lot of build up for this final poll because it Ann Selzer’s polling outfit, and that’s been the gold standard in Iowa for quite awhile.
BillinGlendaleCA
@amk: Pictures of important people fucking goats, that’s how they keep their jobs.
amk
@BillinGlendaleCA:
roaches and snakes fu..ing goats ? unpossible!
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
So the Sanders’s campaign was caught sending out mailers using logos from AARP and League of Conservation Voters making it appear that those groups were endorsing Sanders.
Then Sanders’s campaign was caught trying to infiltrate the Nevada culinary union.
Wow. Sanders is sneakier than I thought. What else is he doing that we don’t know about.
That said, can you imagine the outcry and firestorm if Clinton had did this.
dogwood
I’m more interested to see the raw numbers for turnout for the two parties than who actually wins. Endless “enthusiasm gap” stories will get pretty tedious.
amk
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
all is fair and game in politics. it would be interesting though to see how sandernistas react when he hits the brick wall at SC.
Baud
@dogwood:
Sad to say, the most interesting thing on Monday will be whether Trump is able to translate his poll numbers into votes.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Baud: speaking of bookies:
Irish Bookie Site:
Hillary Clinton – 5/6
Donald Trump – 3/1
Marco Rubio – 11/2
Bernie Sanders – 7/1
Ted Cruz – 20/1
Jeb Bush – 20/1
Michael Bloomberg – 25/1
Chris Christie – 40/1
Mitt Romney -100/1
Paul Ryan – 100/1
John Kasich – 100/1
Martin O’Malley – 150/1
Ben Carson – 200/1
Carly Fiorina – 250/1
Rand Paul – 250/1
Mike Huckabee – 250/1
Jim Gilmore -300/1
Rick Santorum – 300/1
Baud
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Poor lil Rickie. In the same category as Gilmore.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: Remember the Congressional Republican retreat Obama was invited to? You know, the one where he did a question and answer session with them? All off the cuff? And verbally pantsed them and spanked their bare pink little bottoms red? And they then complained how mean he was to them?
I always wondered why they didn’t just take away his teleprompter during that.
dogwood
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
That stuff is more about lack of discipline, and sometimes simple lack of knowledge among Bernie’s ground troops.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@amk: first they’ll blame DWS. they they’ll blame the media. then they’ll blame people of color. then they’ll blame unions. then they’ll blame David Brock. then they’ll blame oligarchs and plutocrats (they love those words). revolutionaries always have a long enemies list.
satby
@dogwood: and rookie mistakes that make me wonder how much control the Sanders campaign has over its own campaigning.
OzarkHillbilly
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Oh my Gawd! A politician acting like a politician! Quick! My fainting couch!!!
Kay
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Sanders was 50 points behind Clinton when this started. I don’t think he’ll win in Iowa (or the nomination) but her campaign might want to start thinking about why a 75 year old socialist closed a 50 point gap, instead of worrying about the Culinary Workers button rules.
Martin O’Malley is a perfectly acceptable former governor who (actually) ran a very good campaign and he got nowhere near the traction Sanders did.
Iowa Old Lady
@OzarkHillbilly: I loved that moment. They’d convinced themselves he couldn’t talk without a teleprompter. Surprise! To them anyway.
Baud
@Iowa Old Lady: Agree. That was awesome.
dogwood
@satby:
He probably has about as much control as any candidate. I had three ex students who worked on campaigns in ’08. They organized for Obama, Clinton and Romney. The Obama volunteer actually spent a week in Chicago getting extensive training. That’s effective, but it’s not standard practice.
Baud
@dogwood:
The Obama 2008 campaign was a gold standard that will probably never be matched in our lifetimes.
NotMax
Something for folks to squirrel away about the mechanics of the New Hampshire primary.
BTW, a bit of trivia – it appears there will be 30 names on the R ballot in NH, 29 on the D ballot. Also, on the R side 20 of the state’s 23 delegates to the national convention are awarded, 3 are by state party rules unpledged. On the D side, 24 of 32 national delegates are chosen in the primary, 8 remain unpledged per party rules. (Data culled from here.)
Baud
@NotMax:
I know every state is different, but that suggests that ballot access isn’t as big a hurdle as we often hear it is.
Kay
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
David Brock has a new book. Killing the Messenger. I got it in the mail from Amazon at the law office. I didn’t order or pay for it. I suppose his org or whatever it is sent it out to people on one Dem list or another because it was some kind of mass order. I read the first three chapters. It’s terrible. Stunningly bad. It’s a long, tedious advertisement promoting David Brock’s career.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Kay: oh please. Hillary was 125 pts ahead when things started out in 2008 and she lost to skinny black with a funny sounding mooslim name, who nobody had ever heard of. I mean, jebus, the “Anybody But Clinton” vote got 70% in the 2008 iowa caucus. Now she’s cut that down to 45 pts. Either she’s getting better at this or the competition is getting weaker.
And I’m not voting for Clinton in the primary, I’m voting for Baud!. But I’ll vote for whomever is ultimately the nominee – FSM willing, Baud will sweep 40 states..
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Kay: The worst part is Brock has horrible hair. In many ways, it’s worse than Trump.
BillinGlendaleCA
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I’m voting for Baud! as well, assuming he’s still in the race when CA votes in June.
Baud
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
I do have better hair than Brock. That should help.
dogwood
@Kay:
When it comes to elections, never underestimate the power of authenticity. The only thing Bernie and Trump have in common is authenticity. They campaign as themselves. It’s disturbing that so many are attracted to a creep like Trump, but it is what is is. When people describe a candidate as a non-typical politician, they’re usually referring to their authenticity. She got beat the last time by a candidate who campaigned as himself. And to be fair, Hillary isn’t the worst when it comes to this.
OzarkHillbilly
@NotMax: The Joisy Whale is about to be beached.
satby
@dogwood: I guess I think that those mistakes are sloppy and indicative of a less well run campaign because I am a Chicagoan ;)
We learn to avoid stuff like that in the cradle.
NotMax
@Baud
Things are seldom what they seem
Skim milk masquerades as cream
BillinGlendaleCA
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I don’t comment on other dudes hair, I’m more concerned with keeping what I’ve got.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: I am always in the race.
Kay
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
I wonder who paid for that career promotion effort, under what finance line of his various orgs he slotted that in.
I hope she has some stern, low-key non-celebrity managers who can rein these people in.
dogwood
@Baud:
I might not see another candidate like Obama in my lifetime, but it’s certainly possible to replicate his organizing philosophy. The problem is that most candidates who have big enough egos to run, generally think they know more than they do.
beltane
Help! We are being bombarded with Chris Christie ads, the same ad playing over and over and over again. He makes a big point about being appointed US Attorney on September 10, 2001, a fact which makes him supremely qualified to protect us from Osama bin Laden. May the FSM show us mercy and send Chris Christie back to New Jersey ASAP.
debbie
@dogwood:
Unfortunately, I think you’re right. Lofty ideals, and certainly idealism (untainted by the usual interpretation of American Exceptionalism) have become bad things. Hopefully, Baud 2016 will change that.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: Brock is a thoroughly loathsome individual. I’m not surprised to hear his book is self-aggrandizing crap.
Kay
@dogwood:
I hope so dogwood, because I couldn’t agree more on authenticity. I was impressed when she got to Ohio in ’08. They had dropped the “inevitability” BS and they stopped over-managing her every move. I was actively organizing on the other side and I was impressed.
I know she has this long history of really unfair attacks and that’s where the caution comes from, and it’s justified. I don’t doubt that. I just think she has to somehow get past it because that context doesn’t matter outside her base.
Kay
@beltane:
I feel for you. I cannot bear him. No one but me follows this, but there’s a new Sec of Ed. Duncan stepped down. Anyway, IMO the Obama Admin have some bridge-fixing to do after Duncan blew them all up so the new guy is giving “can’t we all get along” speeches. Yesterday he went after Christie for talking about “punching” teachers.
That’ll work! We can maybe unite around disliking Chris Christie :)
magurakurin
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
not sure if anyone is still, here. I had to go to work.
Selzer poll announcement
dogwood
@Kay:
I don’t know if it will ever happen, but if Hillary wants to create an easier path to the presidency, she needs to get comfortable talking about who she is, not just what she’s done. Republicans have controlled the Hillary narrative because she’s not a good storyteller. She relies on surrogates to vouch for her as a good mother. I don’t doubt that she’s a good mother, but she has never told an anecdote about herself in that role. The Obama’s protect their girls, but they don’t refuse to answer questions about how they’re doing. They often share some charming stories about raising teenagers that any parent can relate to. For some reason Hillary can’t just go there and be real. And if she wins the nomination and starts getting hammered about the Lewinsky crap, she just might have to look in the camera and address it as a woman, a wife and a mother, not as a candidate.
Kay
@dogwood:
I think what bothers me about it as a feminist is that managing her to the extent they do on some level means to me they don’t think she’s good enough as she is.
If you’re saying to someone “you really must be this other person until people get to see how competent you are” you’re saying that. I know I get abstract about this, but if she wants to be “trusted” by voters she has to trust them enough to relax and let them take the lead on whether she’s “likeable” “trustworthy” or whatever. People who have met her say she’s great one on one. I have heard that consistently.
I read part of what Sanders said at a high school event. I smiled when he told the HS’er “you’re wrong” about climate change. I think that’s respectful in a weird way and completely authentic to him. He’s not sugarcoating it. She has to defend her position.
WaterGirl
@maeve: Are you the Mauve from the Obama blog in 2007 / 2008? I am waving at you if you are!
different-church-lady
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: Jeez, there goes my theory that only on-line Bern-feelers behave like that. (And it does not make me happy.)
Applejinx
@Anne Laurie: Yeah, this. We’re actually staying pretty restrained, all things considered. Not bad.
different-church-lady
@dogwood:
For some people they share a highly significant quality: neither is a Clinton.
Ken
@efgoldman:
My local mix includes lots of ads for new medicines, which are terrifying if you listen closely. Like the sleep aid where they warn “patients on X have reported walking, driving, and taking other actions in their sleep, which they cannot remember afterward”. Or the medicine for clearer skin that lists liver and kidney damage, suicidal depression, and increased risk of cancer among the reported side effects.
I’m surprised the drug companies are trying to sell this stuff. You’d think they’d be opening themselves up to a class-action suit.
DCF
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
It appears your vision is obscured….
Karla
@dogwood: Could you give me some examples of male politicians talking about who they are as men and fathers, other than simply using wives and children as props? Other than Obama, whose comments that I remember have been after he’s no longer campaigning for anything, I’m having trouble thinking of any.
different-church-lady
@Anne Laurie:
[shiver…] JSF has got skilz like I never imagined…
moonbat
@Karla: In 2008 Obama talked quite movingly about his youngest girl becoming seriously ill when she was a baby in the context of health care reform. They celebrated his oldest daughter’s birthday (4th of July) while on the campaign trail attending Fourth of July parades. He has always talked about equal pay and equal rights measures in the context of how such issues will affect his daughters. Not hard to find examples at all.
AxelFoley
@dogwood: Oh, I promise you, most who like Obama don’t like Bernie for the very reason you point out. Bernie’s constant dismissal of President Obama’s accomplishments and his outright lies about Obama have firmly and permanently placed him on my shit list. He’s forced me to pull for Hillary.
Bobby Thomson
@dogwood: I think you missed the point of the post, which is that places where he’s at 14% will help more than places were he’s at 1%.
ETA: and if those are places where Sanders is already cleaning up on delegates the extra take may not help at the margins. Sorry – this was supposed to be a response to Jared’s comment above yours.
Bobby Thomson
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: I think she gave up with us, if not the election.
Bobby Thomson
@dogwood: yeah. Christ, that was a shitty campaign.
Bobby Thomson
@Kay: shorter Kay: cheating’s fine if you win.
VividBlueDotty
@Anne Laurie: Thank you for that comment!! You articulated something I’ve been struggling with for a long time. Edwards was the first political candidate I ever maxed out for in donations. To this day, mention of his name makes me need to throw up.
My mother’s breast cancer arc was aligned with Elizabeth’s – just about a year ahead. Mom passed before she got to vote for Hillary in that primary. I thought her reasons were sound, but I NEEDED that populist rant, and I still do.
I was MORE than ready for that populist rant THEN. After waiting a decade for it, I feel it has arrived – via Bernie. And if he doesn’t win the nomination, I will vote for Hillary. Proudly, defiantly – not with my nose held like it was for Gore, and Kerry, and to some extent Obama (though he was my choice after Edwards dropped out and fell off the edge of the planet as far as I’m concerned.)
I remain surprised that so few Democrats understand that we on the left truly feel that we have been abandoned. There are Republican Presidents (Eisenhower, Nixon) who were FAR to the left of where we have allowed our leadership to go. And when polled on the issues without the words as labels, Americans are FAR more liberal than our current policies or elected officials indicate!!
I am proud of Obama, proud to have voted for him twice, proud of what he has accomplished. When considering how his Presidency affects my vote, I have two issues of concern. The first was his appointment of Tim Geithner. Tim effing Citibank Geithner!?!?! Would Hillary nominate someone like that? Probably. Definitely maybe. Would Bernie? Nope, no way, NEVER gonna happen. Second, I don’t think the ACA is terrible, but I think it falls short. I wanted single payer, I still want single payer. If elected, Bernie may not get it through, but Hillary DEFINITELY won’t get it through because she doesn’t want to. When she disses Bernie about it, she disses ME!!
Banksters and Health Care are my issues, and I have been waiting a LONG, LONG time for that populist rant. You will never hear a harsh word against Hillary Clinton from my mouth, and if she comes out and gives me a barn burning populist rant at any point, I’ll drop Bernie and “StandWithHer.” But she won’t – because if she won’t do it in the Primary, in effing IOWA, she SURE won’t do it in the general.
AxelFoley
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Not surprised. Hell, his supporters are trying to give him credit for the ACA:
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/1/30/1477266/-No-it-wasn-t-pragmatic-Hillary-politics-that-got-us-the-ACA-It-was-dream-big-Bernie-politics
Keith G
@AxelFoley:
Hmm. Obama has done so much good that the reflexive defensiveness of some his supporters is puzzling. Taken at face value, the above characterization of how Sanders (whom I do not support) feels about the President is so errant as to be approaching unhinged.
And yeah, there are Sanders supporters who are full of shit as there are for HRC, and even some the Obama’s supporters have shown the ability to stink up this place.