Brian Beutler has a rather alarmist take on the seemingly inevitable constitutional crisis:
Should Trump fire Mueller, with the tacit assent of Republicans in Congress and the DOJ leadership, there will be little recourse. It is feasible (though difficult) to imagine a GOP House and Senate passing an independent counsel statute to restore Mueller to his job; it is nearly impossible to imagine them doing so by veto-proof margins. And should Trump pardon himself and his inner circle, it is dispiritingly easy to imagine Republicans reprising their familiar refrain: The president’s power to pardon is beyond question.
If this crisis unfolds as depicted here, the country’s final hope for avoiding a terminal slide into authoritarianism would be the midterm election, contesting control of a historically gerrymandered House of Representatives. That election is 16 months away. Between now and then, Trump’s DOJ and his sham election-integrity commission will seek to disenfranchise as many Democratic voters as possible, while the president himself beseeches further foreign interference aimed at Democratic candidates. Absent the necessary sweep, everything Trump will have done to degrade our system for his own enrichment and protection will have been ratified, and a point of no return will have been crossed.
I’m with Beutler up to a point, but I don’t think that foreign interference and disenfranchisement will have that much effect and that Democrats will retake the House if Trump fires Mueller and pardons everybody.
Here’s some questions I’d like to hear people’s take on, along with my answers to them. Some are recreational!
Will Trump fire Mueller? (Yes)
If so…
When? (Sometime in August)
Will some Republicans in Congress speak out? (Yes)
Will Congress impeach? (No)
Will Congress appoint a new prosecutor? (No)
Does Alan Dershowitz keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Does Glenn Greenwald keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Does Jonathan Turley keep defending Trump? (No)
Will we have more or less legitimate elections in 2018? (Yes)
Will Democrats take the House? (Yes)
Will Democrats take the Senate? (No)
Will our system of government survive? (Yes)
Trentrunner
What I heard in all this:
Glenn Greenwald is defending Trump? What a douche.
Baud
Do I believe in predicting the future? (No.)
trollhattan
Will Trump blow a brain aneurysm? (we’re not that lucky)
Doug!
@Trentrunner:
Not about everything, specifically about the Russia probe. (Some other stuff too, but not across the board.)
trollhattan
@Trentrunner:
Greenwald and douche are inseparable co-travelers,
trollhattan
Speaking of the senate, please retire, DiFi.
donnah
I think now that anything can happen. Every single time I’ve said, “No way does Trump get away with THIS terrible thing”, he does. Republicans will not pull the leash on him as long as they can scurry around and do their own terrible things. He won’t resign, he won’t be impeached, he will pardon everyone and then they will go on to do more terrible things because we can’t stop them.
ThresherK
New ad at the top for LibertyNation. “Get your news without the propaganda”, and a pic of KJU and the NKor flag.
I dont know who’s double- or triple-agenting anymore. Just glad our bloghost is getting their money.
Amaranthine RBG
Will Trump fire Mueller? (Yes)
If so…
When? (Sometime in August)
Will some Republicans in Congress speak out? (Yes)
Will Congress impeach? (No)
Will Congress appoint a new prosecutor? (No)
Does Alan Dershowitz keep defending Trump? (Is this a stupid time worry about trivial shit like this? Yes)
Does Glenn Greenwald keep defending Trump? (Is this a stupid time worry about trivial shit like this? Yes)
Does Jonathan Turley keep defending Trump? (Is this a stupid time worry about trivial shit like this? Yes)
Will we have more or less legitimate elections in 2018? (Yes)
Will Democrats take the House? (No)
Will Democrats take the Senate? (No)
Will our system of government survive? (Not in its present form. Trump will appoint 3, maybe four Justices)
MattF
@donnah: Well, specifically please, who is going to stop him, and how?
Wag
Nothing but flowers. https://instagram.com/p/BWsn8WxlLkF/
MikeBoyScout
“Will our system of government survive? ”
This question presupposes we have some agreement about our system of government.
I believe that former agreement is gone, and Trump Republicans are the result.
Will a spirited peaceful democratic debate about or system of government survive?
Maybe.
Emerald
You left something out. Even if (when) tRump fires Mueller, and even if (when) Congress and the DOJ do nothing about it, we’re gonna find out the dirt Mueller, at least, has on tRump.
Malcolm Nance said it on today’s AM Joy. If (when) tRump fires Mueller somebody will leave a pallet of all the evidence on the doorstep of the NYT (I’d rather they choose the WP, however).
After that it’s up to us to hit the streets. Because they absolutely will do their voter suppression. It’s the reason almost all Republicans are willing to vote for tRumpcare. They know they’re safe, because they think we will not be having free and fair elections any longer (although I think we mostly lost those in 2000).
trollhattan
@MikeBoyScout:
My spouse is convinced Trump will declare marshal law and cancel the election. Retorting “no way” I still think it’s a non-zero possibility (much like Trump’s election itself).
dww44
To be honest, the news on the progressive front this weekend and the take on all this has been way pessimistic and is making me wonder what do all you pundits know that I don’t? I refuse to believe Americans will take this without a fight and a strong enough one to make the Congressional Gop’ers discover they do have a spine after all.
I think Trump will try to get Mueller fired and it might happen by late August. If Sessions departs it is almost sure to happen.
McCain and Graham and possibly Burr will speak out against the firing.
Congress won’t impeach now, but they will before the 2018 elections.
They will move to create an independent commission that will rehire Mueller and his aides. There better be a veto proof majority.
I don’t care about Dershowitz and Greenwald, but I didn’t know that Turley was pro Trump. Well, he was a fence squatter during the Bush years, so am not surprised. I’ll take Jeffrey Toobin over them all.
Agree that Dems will likely take the house and not the Senate. The Senate is a hill too far to climb in a year and a half, given the number of Dem seats up for election.
Our democratic government will survive if we put additional safeguards in place to guard against future authoritarian candidates and Presidents.
Doug!
@Emerald:
Yeah, I agree with this. That’s why I think Dems will do well in 2018 elections.
mai naem mobile
@trollhattan: Greenwald is a useful idiot for the Russians. Dolt 45 is a Russian puppet….puppet yes puppet me beeeeg yuuuuge puppet
patrick II
@Baud:
Do I believe in projecting the future so I can make plans? (Yes.)
??? Martin
I think there needs to be an entry for mass protests and violence in that list. I think we’d see a lot of that prior to the midterms. Perhaps if voters thought the election would be fair, but that seems unlikely at this time. Sessions giving law enforcement the right to seize assets from anyone, regardless of local laws is just a prelude to what is about to come.
NobodySpecial
Is doomcrying still boring? (Yes)
TriassicSands
I think the point of no return is 2020, not 2018. I expect the GOP to retain control of both houses in 2018, but if the country is willing to re-elect Trump or elect another Republican in his place, I don’t see how we come back from that. The again, things change. If we can continue to have relatively fair presidential elections there still might be hope.
Baud
@patrick II: What plans do these questions lead you to?
Percysowner
@trollhattan: I am at least expecting Trump to make noises that due to the problems with our “bogus” elections, they will not be held. Or, he waits to see how the vote goes and then declares the election VOID and either keeps the Congress as is, or “appoints” the representatives he thinks should have won.
I don’t think it’s likely, but like you I think there is a non-zero chance.
MattF
@NobodySpecial: I’m so sorry you’re bored.
Doug!
@NobodySpecial:
I was hoping for more comments like this one.
misterpuff
@Amaranthine RBG: That is bleak, Dude!
I have to think that Americans will not allow a small fraction to define Americanism, and that backlash will overturn the Fascisti.
We are still 70% to 30% . The question is can they be mobilized?
Tom Q
@Emerald: I completely agree with this. The reason we are where we are — and have been, in some form, since Obama’s announcement of Russian interference — is not that the press has suddenly started taking Democratic Party positions seriously. It’s because sources they have always taken deeply seriously — in the CIA and such — have told them it’s a vital matter. These sources are not going to go away because Trump and the quisling GOP try to quash things. They’ll redouble their efforts. And if the only way is to splash evidence of treason all over worldwide media, that’s the route they’ll take.
Yes, it will then take massive citizen effort to enforce it, and, because we’ve never needed such a thing before, we have no way of knowing if we’ll get there. But Trump’s opposition is not just impotent Democrats; it’s people who hold immense power and aren’t afraid to exercise it.
Major Major Major Major
I’m done trying to predict these assholes, but were I to, I would basically agree with you, Doug!.
NobodySpecial
@MattF: Likewise, I’m very sorry you’re being boring right now.
Barney
If Mueller is fired, and Congress doesn’t pass a veto-proof statute to reinstate him, could an interested state Attorney General, such as NY’s Eric Schneiderman, have the budget and freedom to take on any promising lines of investigation? I’ve heard it said that Trump can’t pardon state-level convictions.
Doug!
@Barney:
Oh, yeah, that will happen for sure.
Emerald
@Doug!:
IF the Democratic base is allowed to vote. Which they very likely will not be allowed to do.
sdhays
I don’t have much faith in Republicans either, but this gives me a smidgeon of hope that we’re not all gone just yet: A new poll finds even Trump supporters are wavering on his scandals.
If/when he fires Mueller and pardons his spawn and spawn adjacent, there’s still hope that enough people will be upset enough to cost him and any politicians supporting him. They really, really want to support him, but he’s not making it easy by acting incredibly guilty.
Peale
I’m kind of down on our chances in the mid terms, anyway. Trump will fire Mueller, sure. But in the next year, im sure some Mexican somewhere will murder someone, some policeman will kill a black person, and the GOP will be excited again. The GOP and the new DOJ will open a new investigation into Valerie Jarret and Hillary Clinton and wil Frame the election as to whether we want to see Hillary in jail or not. Our voters seem to be that stupid.
Iowa Old Lady
@Percysowner: I remember when people said W might cancel elections and someone on here (I think) said when 300 million people expect something to happen, it almost always does. Besides, Trump thinks he’s a winner.
??? Martin
@dww44:
Charlie Sykes said it all last night – there’s no electoral benefit to standing up to Trump. He’s not wrong there, but he buried the lede. And that is that the only thing that matters to Republicans is staying in power. They’re not even being subtle with the voter suppression at this point, and they’re making every argument for why they don’t need to be accountable to the voters – because they have no intention of being held accountable. They stay in power by sticking with Trump because Trump and the Senate will pack the courts with likeminded radicals who believe that only white Christian votes matter, just as the founders intended. Originalism is just a fancy way to say “fuck all those amendments in the teens – civil rights was ever enshrined by the founders”. Their gamble is that by 2018, they’ll have shifted the judiciary far enough to allow them to outright steal the election. FEC violations? Yeah, right – the FEC is completely neutered. The remaining checks are Congress, who is colluding with this plan, the judiciary which is increasingly looking like the Federalist Society mailing list, and Mueller. After that we’re pretty much into torches and pitchforks territory.
TriassicSands
@misterpuff:
Historically, the answer to that would be “no.” We have to find a way to do better next year.
Bobby Thomson
You’re high. Turley will continue to defend Trump. Everything after that is a No.
sdhays
@Iowa Old Lady: Canceling elections would be very difficult absent massive impediments, whether natural (like a hurricane) or intentional (martial law).
Vote suppression and manipulation, though…
TriassicSands
@Barney:
That is correct; the president’s pardon power is federal. The governor’s pardon at the state level.
Full Metal Wingnut
You give JT too much credit.
Tom
The whole point of Kris Kobach is to pave the way for such massive voter disenfranchisement that the Republicans retain control of Congress in the 2018 elections.
Marianne19
Front pager dnexon at Lawyers Guns & Money paints a similarly pessimistic picture. http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/07/reflections-current-crisis
NobodySpecial
@TriassicSands: Not only that, but it would remove Fifth Amendment protections for his co-conspirators. Who will then roll over on him.
Joyce Harmon
I think there’s a greater than zero chance that one day completely out of the blue, Trump will just say ‘screw this sh!t’ and resign and stomp off. What’s making him crazy is the focus on his business dealings, and even firing Mueller won’t stop that because New York state is also investigating and he can’t stop that. He’s completely miserable, his kids are miserable, and the stuff he’s always intended to keep out of public view is being dug up by investigators outside his control and also by a motivated news media.
Trump thought he knew what he was getting into because he’s been a celebrity for decades. He had NO idea the amount of scrutiny that a president receives. All the deals and shadiness that he managed without scrutiny for decades are now news. And he’s not receiving the love and adulation he expected would automatically come along with the position along with the Resolute desk and Marine One.
And remember, he’s got a track record. Once things get completely bollixed up, he just declares victory and walks away, leaving chaos in his wake. If Trump does walk away, he’ll somehow frame it as not a failure on his part. I suspect he’ll blame EVERYONE else. The Republican Party that wasn’t obsequious enough, the GOP Congress that couldn’t accomplish anything, and of course, all of us – we just didn’t deserve him.
sukabi
@Barney: that’s what I’m thinking. If Drumpf fires Mueller and throws mass pardons, that doesn’t affect the states attny gens from continuing their efforts to investigate / prosecute any and all crimes committed in their jurisdictions. If I recall, Drumpf can’t pardon a state crime, only at the federal level.
trollhattan
@Marianne19:
That’s a must-read IMHO, very thorough and on point.
Peale
@TriassicSands: our votes are not mobilized by the ability to pick Supreme Court justices or anything like that. Immigrants who have became me citizens are not mobilized by blantant attacks on them and questions as to whether they belong. White women are not mobilized by attacks on birth control or for that matter even care for their children. Our voters give the GOP a pass on government shut downs. And somehow we expect them to come out in large numbers in two years because? I’m not seeing it.
rikyrah
So , the KKKEEBLER Elf still isn’t resigning.
feebog
If (when?) Dolt45 fires Mueller, it will create a constitutional crisis unlike anything we have experienced before. I expect several million people to storm into Washington D.C. and to protest for days. This will put such pressure on congress that they will have to respond, most likely by taking congressional action to reinstate Mueller, but perhaps even by starting impeachment.
Bobby Thomson
@mai naem mobile: nah, Greenwald is on the payroll. His aggressive cries of McCarthyism are the tell.
Bobby Thomson
@feebog: dream the fuck on.
Psych1
Not only that, but it would remove Fifth Amendment protections for his co-ordinator.
This gets repeated a lot here but is not true. If still at risk for a state level prosecution one still has protection against self incrimination.
Jeff
@trollhattan: It could happen.
arrieve
@Joyce Harmon: I honestly think this is more likely than impeachment. Because I think he believes — wrongly — that if he just walks away all of the investigations will stop. Even if nothing happens at the Federal level, Schneiderman isn’t going to give up.
ruemara
God, fuck the pessimism. Do not underestimate that many of you are dealing in game theory. For people like me, you’re talking about our survival. Fuck this shit. If you think we POC are going to sit back and let your folks (these are your friends and relatives, dear) roll back our civil rights, our freedoms and fuck with our lives, you are fucking nuts. That goes for LGBTQIA as well. So stop playing what ifs and start doing things to reinforce to the RNC that there is a reckoning, because you do not want the pissed off and armed already fucked of this nation to finally demonstrate the rage we’ve been holding back.
BBA
I don’t see any path to Dems retaking the House as long as non-Hispanic whites are a majority of the electorate. I didn’t even before Trump was elected.
I think the Mueller investigation is basically irrelevant, because the President can’t be indicted and Congress won’t impeach. Only sad losers quit, so the only way Trump leaves before the end of his term is death or obvious medical incapacitation.
On the other hand, the elections will happen as scheduled, and Trump won’t try to suspend the Constitution to get a third term (though he may continue holding rallies after he leaves office, because he’s just that deranged).
Stock up on canned goods. It’s going to be a long 3.5 years.
trollhattan
@rikyrah:
As long as the paychecks don’t bounce (see: gummint shutdown) he’s not going anywhere.
randy khan
I understand that firing Mueller requires cause, and it’s not hard to imagine him fighting it in court. I’m not convinced courts would give Trump much deference, particularly because the case would be in D.C. federal courts.
smintheus
Does Jonathan Turley keep defending Trump? (Yes, obviously)
Will we have more or less legitimate elections in 2018? (Less)
Will Democrats take the House? (Nope)
Will Democrats take the Senate? (Ha)
Will our system of government survive? (Our old system is already gone, and we’ve yet to see what new hell the Republicans will foist on the rubble they’ve left in place)
Amaranthine RBG
@misterpuff:
Well, these are bleak times.
There will be mobilization, but reactionaries will soon solidly be in control of the Supreme Court and that’s where issues of immigration, civil asset forfeiture, voting rights, redistricting, trans rights, EPA powers, etc. will be determined.
It doesn’t matter how good your team is when the other side controls the refs.
Cheryl Rofer
Will Trump fire Mueller? (No)
Will some Republicans in Congress speak out? (Yes)
Will Congress impeach? (No)
Does Alan Dershowitz keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Does Glenn Greenwald keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Does Jonathan Turley keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Will we have more or less legitimate elections in 2018? (Yes)
Will Democrats take the House? (Yes)
Will Democrats take the Senate? (No)
Will our system of government survive? (Yes)
Mike R
@Cheryl Rofer: What you said.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
In case nobody’s mentioned this upthread, even if Mueller is somehow fired (Rosenstein would have to first, and if he didn’t he would then need to be fired) the investigation will continue independent of him
schrodingers_cat
@ruemara: Amen sister! There some practitioners of the gloom who are here just to sow seeds of apathy and depression. Give up they say, you have already lost.
Betty Cracker
I have no idea what the crazy man with the nuclear codes might do, and I never thought enough people would vote for Trump to allow him to scrape over the EC line. So I’m trying to stay out of the predictions business.
But if Trump does fire Mueller, everyone who believes in the rule of law should stop doing whatever they’re doing when they hear the news and get to Washington, DC if they’re able or gather outside the nearest federal courthouse if they’re not. It would be a bald statement that Trump is above the law, and it cannot stand.
Amir Khalid
@Barney:
@sukabi:
Can state attorneys-general prosecute anyone for federal crimes? My understanding is that they can’t.
JMG
A question has been left off here. Will Trump start a war with Iran before the midterms? (yes).
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Cheryl Rofer: That’s more like it. Because if Beutler is right, then civil war is on the table, and I’d prefer we don’t go down that route.
Would our allies even intervene?
Joyce Harmon
@BBA:
People keep saying that but it’s just not true. For pete’s sake, look at his record! He HAS quit – over and over again. When stuff gets too hard, when he gets bored, when he’s not having fun with it, he just walks away. And a lot of those instances were when he was younger and more vigorous. Now he’s a pathetic old breakdown who can’t stroll a quarter of a mile with national leaders, something that he no doubt would have gloried in a couple decades ago, but has to putt-putt along behind them in a golf cart. I’m not saying he’s going to quit, but the idea that he absolutely won’t is — unsubstantiated by his track record.
schrodingers_cat
@Betty Cracker: I have said this before but like Arjun on the battlefield of Kurukshetra, we have to fight not because we know we are going to win but because that’s the need of the hour.
Baud
@ruemara:
I think there is a racial divide on pessimism. Remember that if you’re a white left-of-center person, you are a minority among your own people. A loathed minority as well. And for quite a long time. That has to take a toll.
japa21
@Amir Khalid: But they can prosecute for state crimes and NY has some RICO style laws. And Trump cannot pardon for those.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Joyce Harmon:
Unless he can’t quit for fear of opening himself up to retribution by Russian gangsters. Yes even with the Secret Service detail all former presidents get
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Or I can be a cynic and say that its because they know that even if the worst comes to a pass they will be okay (especially if they are male) so they can indulge in the gloom porn and let their fears rule them.
I don’t have that option my life depends on it.
Amaranthine RBG
The whole premise of the Republican strategy is to hobble democracy. I don’t understand why you think that a massive show of public sentiment will change that. Public outrage is proof that their program is WORKING.
(Go see the meltdown that Bernstein and Adler have been having over at the Volokh Conspiracy all week against Nancy MacLean’s book)
BBA
@Joyce Harmon: When has he visibly quit, though? His MO is to shove his failures under the rug and deny they ever happened. Only one president has ever resigned before, and that was in the face of certain impeachment. This is not something he can live down.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Amaranthine RBG:
Unless you wipe them out
Citizen_X
@Baud:
Luckily, not in any way that actually counts, so hello apathy and cynicism! I.e. the usual white cop-outs.
JPL
Will Trump fire Mueller? (Yes)
If so…
When? (Sometime in August)
Will some Republicans in Congress speak out? (Yes)
Will Congress impeach? (No)
Will Congress appoint a new prosecutor? (No)
Does Alan Dershowitz keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Does Glenn Greenwald keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Does Jonathan Turley keep defending Trump? (No)
Will we have more or less legitimate elections in 2018? (No)
Will Democrats take the House? (No)
Will Democrats take the Senate? (No)
Will our system of government survive? (No)
Kobach and the Koch brothers will insure that the last four answers are no. The one caveat that I have is WWIII. In that case elections will be postponed, but when held again, the republicans will get their asses kicked.
schrodingers_cat
@Citizen_X: Bingo.
Doug!
@ruemara:
I agree with you except that I think putting things in stark terms like this can be motivating.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
@Citizen_X:
I don’t disagree. But the question remains why that reaction over others?
Steve in the ATL
@Amaranthine RBG:
Not a fucking chance
Fair Economist
They won’t cancel elections. Almost nobody does that anymore. The neofascists stay in power by electoral manipulation – gerrymandering (Hungary), electronic counting fraud (Russia), and restricting the franchise (here). Those are the things we need to worry about and resist.
schrodingers_cat
@Doug!: Yes it is motivating the gloom porn aficionados to indulge in their fantasies and inflict them on the rest of us.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: You tell me. I have no insight into these people that want to preemptively give up, where every scenario ends up as an R win.
Another Scott
Matt Gertz on Twitter:
Heh. Donnie continues to be on both sides of everything.
(via Obama White House photographer Pete Souza‘s Twitterings)
Cheers,
Scott.
Ksmiami
@Amaranthine RBG: then the refs become targets. Don’t forget suppression begets reaction
Doug!
@schrodingers_cat:
I don’t think anything here is too fantastical. I think Trump will fire Mueller, Congress will do nothing, and all will ride on the 2018 elections, which I think will turn out well for Dems.
Doug!
@schrodingers_cat:
Also, how does thinking that all that matters is the 2018 elections a form of giving up? I don’t see it.
trollhattan
@Doug!:
IMO we’re in the midst of the greatest constitutional crisis of my lifetime and during previous peak–1973–here was the congressional composition.
56-42 dem majority
241-192 dem majority
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Ksmiami:
Exactly. No one is just going to sit back while their rights are taken away. Trump isn’t going to make it to 2020 as president, one way or another. Either taken away in handcuffs, a pine box, or gaddafied by angry mobs the way things are going. And McConnell and all the rest would join him shortly
bemused
@Joyce Harmon:
What massive egotist wouldn’t be outraged and spitting furious that everyone doesn’t worship him, follow his orders, won’t stop digging into his business finances or let him do whatever the hell he wants to do without questions. I bet he’d leave now and say what a yuge success he was but for Russian funding. If Putin wrote him off, he’d be lost.
smintheus
@schrodingers_cat: Why do you have to malign the motives of those who think differently from you on these questions?
NobodySpecial
I consider gloom porn to be on the same plateau as voter suppression. No one needs more disincentive to vote. I’d ask the gloom porn Chicken Littles why they like doing Jeff Sessions’ work for him.
schrodingers_cat
@Doug!: No matter what happens — we lose, is defeatism.
Betty Cracker
@Amaranthine RBG:
I think they’re counting on complacency.
Johnnybuck
I guess we should give up then? Why not let it play out?
Arclite
Trump didn’t have an email server in his basement, so he can do whatever he likes as long as he steers clear of that.
dww44
@trollhattan: That is indeed telling for where we are now. But, then, Trump has committed impeachable offenses already. If his tax returns get published that will be the straw that turns the tide and I think we win, no thanks to the spineless Congressional GOP.
schrodingers_cat
@smintheus: I just described what they are doing, and the effect it has. Their motives are of secondary importance at best.
Doug!
@schrodingers_cat:
I think we win in this scenario, though. It’s a nasty fight, but we win.
schrodingers_cat
@Doug!: I was addressing the comments that think that 2018 is a done deal and that the Dems are going to lose no matter what.
Another Scott
Even with all of the horrible things that Donnie is doing and can (in principle) do, there is still a lot of institutional inertia. E.g. CRS report (at FAS) (11 page .PDF):
IANAL, but it seems clear that Donnie cannot run agencies in the normal way indefinitely without Senate-approved nominees. This is yet another safeguard that prevents Donnie from running roughshod over all the norms and rules.
Of course, what can be done about it, who has standing, etc., etc., are the usual problems.
I hope the ACLU and related groups are preparing legal cases over these issues.
300 (210 + 90) days + 1 is November 17, 2017.
[eta:] Sorry about the formatting. C&P from PDFs still is far too problematic…
Cheers,
Scott.
bemused
@Betty Cracker:
Time to quit reading and rest my eyes. I read Jonathan Turley as Jonathan Turkey and now I read complacency as complicity.
Arclite
@Johnnybuck:
Yes, because that has worked out so well in the past.
Doug!
@schrodingers_cat:
Oh, I see.
Don’t get me wrong, I know that what I’m saying is pessimistic in that it involves terrible damage to our institutions. I don’t know what we can do to stop that. But I think it also leads to Democratic political success, which we can do something to help.
rikyrah
@ruemara:
Tell the truth
Amaranthine RBG
@Steve in the ATL:
Think of it as supporting the Washington Post …
Their meltdown has been a pleasure to behold. “How dare anyone suggest that just because my employer is funded by the Koch brothers suggest that would have any sway on my intellectual integrity …”
rikyrah
How does he fire Bobby Three Sticks?
He is going to get the KKKEEBLER Elf to quit, and get a new Attorney General in within a month?
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@schrodingers_cat:
FWIW, I don’t think 2018 is impossible to win either (House at least). I have been greatly encouraged by the turnout in special elections and activism.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@rikyrah:
Sessions has recused himself from the investigation. Only deputy ag Rosenstein can fire Mueller and he’s unlikely to do that just because Trump asks him to. Rosenstein would have to be fired first. And even then the investigations would continue on without him
schrodingers_cat
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: That’s the spirit. Fight and resist. Leave this game theorizing to the punditry.
smintheus
@schrodingers_cat: You’re attributing viewpoints to others for which you have no good evidence.
schrodingers_cat
@smintheus: What motives am I attributing to whom?
Thor Heyerdahl
There are a bunch of Twitter bots which use the same image of a young woman. I did an image search in Google it appears that it is actress Lisa Soberano.
How did her image become the face of so many bots?
H.E.Wolf
@ruemara: @schrodingers_cat:
@rikyrah:
Thank you, all three, for your comments. I agree. I’m working beside you (and many others), from my locale. We shall overcome.
Philbert
Will Trump fire Mueller? (Yes)
When? (just in time for the debt ceiling)
Will some Republicans in Congress speak out? (Yes)
Will Congress impeach? (No)
Will Congress appoint a new prosecutor (Yes, but it’s a special counsel, not a prosecutor)
Does Alan Dershowitz keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Does Glenn Greenwald keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Does Jonathan Turley keep defending Trump? (Yes)
Will we have more or less legitimate elections in 2018? (less)
Will Democrats take the House? (popular vote:yes, voting seats:maybe)
Will Democrats take the Senate? (No)
Will our system of government survive? (ostensibly)
Will we have a new war, being as our current ones are not enough? (50/50)
Will we have a natural disaster a la Katrina, handled abysmally (yes)
smintheus
@schrodingers_cat: Go back and read what you wrote, beginning with your assertion that we want to preemptively give up just because we foresee this ending badly.
sukabi
@Amir Khalid: not federal but state crimes….if their real estate businesses are money laundering operations pretty sure there are state laws they are breaking…ditto with any other businesses skirting state taxes, ECT. Up to state attny general where the business is located, licensed if they investigate / prosecute. See schniedermann / my attny gen.
scav
@Baud:
Well, that part’s easily solved. Those are in no god-blighted way my people. Never felt comfortable there, never aspired otherwise. Have simply zero to negative yearning for their cosy embrace or approval. Any pessismism I possess I learned (with a certain boost from basic character). Might be cynicism, sometimes hard to distinguish. Archaeological and historical study also enhances a certain belief that humans will manage to eventually drives themselves into the ground somehow so that’s always assumed to be the eventual end-state, making it all a question of when and how (suddenly sounds like following the Cubs). Doesn’t mean I won’t kick, more that I don’t fight with rah-rah pom-poms and expectations of rainbows. Some people have a greater need for that style of motivation. Pessimism as an easy justification for apathy and inaction — especially from positions of relative safety — that’s seems to me a graver problem, rooted more in the laziness and indifference to others.
sukabi
@Arclite: no he had a server set up in a secret room in trump tower that only communicated with Alpha Bank in Russia. Totally different. ?
Elizabelle
@ruemara: Speak it.
I’m sick of the disaster porn and snarking about it.
I think this was an awful topic.
sukabi
@bemused: potato potahto
schrodingers_cat
@smintheus: I find this kind of theorizing pointless and self defeating.
Another Scott
Can Trump fire Mueller? Not directly… David A. Graham at TheAtlantic:
(See the original for the embedded links.)
There is no FBI Director. The USAG is dead-man-walking. If Donnie orders Rosenstein to fire Mueller, he won’t do it. Another few layers of leadership will probably resign (as was the case in the Saturday Night Massacre). Gutting the DoJ seems like a very big bridge to cross, even for the most partisan Teabaggers…
I think Mueller is going to be around a while. If Donnie does order someone to fire him, he’ll either end up working with Preet in NY or the Congress will create a position for him. Even Jared has to be able to see this…
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
I had no idea that there were so many pessimists on BJ. Not that I don’t think Trump and company will do crazy things, but geez, all this kind of negativity does is ooze onto everyone else. Ugh.
Doug!, I really wonder what you were thinking when you put this thread up.
A Ghost to Most
I have no crystal ball, but there are enough possible paths in the future that lead to bad outcomes. We are preparing to be able to react to some of those outcomes.
jhtrotter
@Emerald:
“…If (when) tRump fires Mueller somebody will leave a pallet of all the evidence on the doorstep of the NYT…”
Nope. Eric “can’t pardon this” Schneiderman has an office waiting for Mr. Mueller.
smintheus
@schrodingers_cat: Then why theorize about other people’s motives?
Doug!
@WaterGirl:
I think we’re facing something scary and people aren’t thinking about it enough.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl: He said he was kinda trolling, or at least wanting pushback.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
schrodingers_cat
@smintheus: I did use the word some. Some people are clearly here to troll and spread apathy. I call it as I see it. You disagree with me, that’s fine.
Tom Q
About all this pessimism:
1) Some of it (not long-time posters, but people who’ve just dropped in to spew “we’re doomed”) could be part of the very clear Russia-backed poison that infected the campaign and put us in this place
2) It’s unfortunately endemic to a certain kind of liberal/left-leaner, for whom being on the losing side is expected (and, for some, a validator of virtue). I always thought that the GOP wouldn’t have rolled over Gore so easily in 2000 had not many liberals (and especially pundits) spent much of the year assuming Bush would win (because he was so “likable”), leaving them unprepared to defend their side’s victory.
I’ve noted this here before, but to repeat a long-ago story: the Monday after the Saturday Night Massacre, among my four work lunch-mates — liberal Dems all — three were blithely confident Nixon would pay no price for it and easily survive. So, this “We can’t win” sentiment among Dems has a long history.
Frank Wilhoit
Will Trump fire Mueller? (Yes)
If so…
When? (Sunday 23 July)
Will some Republicans in Congress speak out? (Yes, for sufficiently pusillanimous values of “speak”)
Will Congress impeach? (No)
Will Congress appoint a new prosecutor? (No)
Does Alan Dershowitz keep defending Trump? (who cares)
Does Glenn Greenwald keep defending Trump? (who cares)
Does Jonathan Turley keep defending Trump? (who cares)
Will we have more or less legitimate elections in 2018? (No — or, at any rate, much “less”)
Will Democrats take the House? (No)
Will Democrats take the Senate? (No)
Will our system of government survive? (It is long dead)
Now go back to the drawing board and ask better questions.
Brachiator
@Joyce Harmon:
People have been saying this ever since Trump announced that he was going to run for president. And this is the one prediction that has never come to pass. I don’t see any change in the near future.
On the other hand, if Trump pardons his kids and key advisors, could some legislation exclude them from holding any federal office?
..
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Tom Q:
No one truly knows what the future may hold. It may be a slide into authoritarianism. Or it could be Trump stepping all over his dick so hard he fucks himself out of power, his actions so bad even the GOP can’t excuse it
Elizabelle
@Another Scott: It’s a ridiculous way to do it.
This thread is the opposite of readership capture.
A Ghost to Most
@Baud:
Wow. There was a bunch of truth in what Baud said, and several folks here just blew it off as whining. Are you so flush with allies that you are willing to alienate some you already have?
Another Scott
One for Immantenize – Adele M. Stan at TAP:
They really seem to think that they can only talk to their base and the rest of us don’t matter.
We have to fight them every single day…
Cheers,
Scott.
mainmata
@Barney: My understanding was that he can only pardon federal crimes so the sealed indictments that Schneidermann has prepared against the Trump crime family including the capo di capo himself aren’t pardonable and even if he pardoned everyone preemptively for federal crimes, then the Trump family and their many toadies could no longer invoke the 5th amendment against self-incrimination (because they’ve been pardoned) and could be compelled to testify under the threat of contempt of Congress (or contempt of one of the courts – probably DC federal district court).
Doug!
@A Ghost to Most:
Yeah, I thought it was an interesting point.
NCSteve
I agree with most of your answers, but if Trump fires Mueller and pardons himself, there’s a pretty good chance we’ll take back the Senate. I am familiar with the Map. I get that it’s so bad that Ted Cruz is the most likely third seat we’d need to pickup which is another way of saying not bloody likely. But that’s my feeling. And, of course, if McCain has to resign, we definitely take the special election.
But also not sure if our system of government decides. Particularly if SCOTUS rules that there is no form of partisan gerrymandering that is too extreme to violate the Equal Protection Clause next term.
Uncle Cosmo
@Another Scott: Have you tried to paste into a WP program, remove the returns & other line breaks, & then c&p into a comment? It may take a couple of minutes more but you’d probably spend more time putting in an apology…
MobiusKlein
@Frank Wilhoit: What time on July 23rd? And be sure to specify PDT or GMT.
I will suggest Next Thursday, 9 AM EDT
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
Then move on.
You seem to think that saying “This looks like things will REALLY suck in XX years” == “Oh, woe is me, I give up!”
Although that is certainly a possibility, there haven’t been too many commenters here who, as far as I can tell, have adopted that second part as their own sentiment, even after expressing the first.
schrodingers_cat
@SFAW: You can follow your own advice and move on from my comments too.
Another Scott
@mainmata: Interesting Twitter thread by Seth Abramson. If he is right, Donnie can’t pardon his co-conspirators after Mueller’s referral comes out because he can’t pardon himself. So the clock is ticking, and there are lots of moving parts…
(via a comment at ThinkProgress)
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Uncle Cosmo: Yeah, I could do that, but it would be nice if I didn’t have to. PDF has been around for ages, and computer clipboards for years before that…
;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
(“Besides, if we’re not able to gripe about first world problems what can we gripe about?!?!11”)
Chris
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
I increasingly think that civil war at some point in my lifetime is very much on the table, though my opinion hasn’t changed that the only way I see it happening is the same way as last time – the liberals win an election, the conservatives go batshit and go into open war. (The reverse, liberals throwing a revolution, will simply never happen).
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
Thanks for that wisdom and insight. Although I certainly have my pet peeves, I am not the one who cries “Stop being a defeatist fucktard” (so to speak) every time someone opines that things aren’t looking too good, or games out a worse-/worst-case scenario. You seem to confuse a person’s assessment of the present or future situation with your belief/projection that they’re giving up.
schrodingers_cat
@SFAW: So its ok to speculate about the end of democracy but speculating about the speculators, crosses a line. Got it, thanks.
Chris
@schrodingers_cat:
Oh, go fuck yourself already.
schrodingers_cat
@Chris: What did I do to deserve that?
Zelma
@Another Scott:
I had to look up “Immantenize the eschaton.” I’m sure glad our VP doesn’t think it’s part of the government’s job!
I was happy to learn from Wikipedia that “immantenizing the eschaton” is heretical according to the Lutheran Confession. That could be why I’ve never heard the term in my over five decades of membership. Lord these people are scary.
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
GMAFB. Once you personalize it — as is your wont — it’s a different thing than speculating about current/future events. You don’t want to “speculate about the end of democracy” (oh my stars, where’s my fainting couch?), then don’t — but don’t impute (probably incorrectly) particular motives, thoughts, or feelings to others because they choose to do so.
Chris
@schrodingers_cat:
You’re welcome. At least not being read by you should spare me having you complain that I’m a trollbot who’s taken over from real-Chris, as you have at least once a few months back on a thread similar to this one.
schrodingers_cat
@Chris: Did you give me the recipe for the strawberry crumble was that chris?
I checked the second thread and it is chris.
schrodingers_cat
@SFAW: I said some who indulge in the doom and gloom porn may be trolls. Some not everyone. These are trying times I can understand the motivation behind gaming these scenarios. When I say its not useful, I am talking about myself. If they help you, don’t let me stop you. I thought expressing opinions is what the comment section is for, not group think. I seem to have touched a nerve among many. I will try to express my frustration better.
zhena gogolia
@A Ghost to Most:
I thought he was snarking about the poor oppressed white liberals.
GeorgeHayduke
@Trentrunner:
Uhhhh…of course. He has always been a douche. Always will be.
TriassicSands
@schrodingers_cat:
That depends on the individual.
Chris
@schrodingers_cat:
Two different commenters. Sorry, I hadn’t read the following thread yet and assumed that thanking me for a dessert cake-like substance was the euphemism of the day letting me know I’d just been pied/blocked.
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
Well, maybe I haven’t seen enough of your comments — unlikely, but possible — but it has sure looked like, for a significant number of “doomsayers” (many/most of whom are “regulars” here, not trolls like NR/NativeRussian or similar), you decide that they’ve given up, and comment that way. If my assessment is incorrect, my apologies.
ETA: The above was written before your own ETA. But, I think you you trash people for “doomsaying” more than you realize, and more personally than you realize. In any event, I’ll move on.
Elizabelle
@Chris: Too funny. Worth a lemon meringue treat.
ksmiami
Will America divorce? 50/50 as the Blue states have enormous economic power and influence and there is no reason for them to prop up a bunch of confederate state losers. China and Canada will compete for the west.
SFAW
@ksmiami:
I smell a hit — who’s your showrunner?
Redshift
Don’t have the link handy, but John Dean believes that if Trump fires Mueller, Mueller can fight it in court and win.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Chris:
What makes you think that?
BBA
@ksmiami: There’s really no scenario where it makes sense for any state to try to secede.
However, it might make sense for the GOP to try to expel California. After all, if you exclude California, Trump won the popular vote, as I’ve been told by people who also think one-acre-one-vote makes sense.
Another Scott
@Redshift: Justia:
Thanks for the pointer. Interesting stuff.
Cheers,
Scott.
Mike in DC
Chance we become Russia: 0.4%
The biggest obstacle to the doom and gloom scenario is Trump himself. It’s one thing for Republicans to put up with him for the sake of passing their godawful policies. It’s another to effectively crown him king. I don’t think they particularly want to be ruled by him either.
WaterGirl
@Redshift: That’s great news.
P.S. Hoping you are healing up and seeing progress day by day.
Bob h
If Trump pardons himself and his coconspirators, and fires Mueller, the best hope is to get it into the courts. Lower courts would probably be sympathetic to the Constitution as in the travel ban, and the Supreme Court would get the cases, and might be fair if Kennedy is still on the court.
But how to get it into court? Certainly Justice Department is not going to do so.
Frank Wilhoit
@ksmiami: There are no blue states. Look at the county-level map. Population density is the only predictor of party affiliation that anyone needs. The only split, now or at any previous time in the history of the Republic, is urban/rural. The cities will be blockaded and starved. The regular military will come in to finish the job.
DLew On Roids
Things I think:
1. Trump hates being president. He got into this via the age-old mistake men of a certain age have always made, thinking they could easily run a railroad/hotel/government better than the idiots in charge. He will try to find a way to avoid
2. Trump is a dope. He can’t stabilize an authoritarian state built around himself because he can’t strategize further than his next tweet. The Kobach commission, like ACHA, will flounder for lack of vision and leadership.
3. If a special prosecutor bill passes in this Congress, it will have a veto-proof majority because it will need >50% Republican support and will have near-universal Democratic support.
One thing I think is unlikely, but could throw the right into chaos: OANN takes enough market share from Fox News over the next 8 months that Fox sees more hay to be made from becoming the Koch house organ, splitting the right into faux-libertarian paleo-conservatives and Trumpian protectionists.
bluefish
“Life is what happens when you’re making other plans”
This is one helluva nasty goat rodeo. On the obscenity chart, it gets the highest of marks. We will have survived it, one day. These boys with their secret club/members only tree house mentality and lack of game aren’t going to get away with what they’ve gotten themselves into. What they’ve gotten the USA into.
Am I pessimistic? Of course! Will Trump be hounded out office before 2020? Yes. Will any of it have felt good? No. For myself, I find it important on the daily not to allow Trump’s emotional vampirism to cross my threshold. It’s what he wants, among many many other things. We will return to the norm in terms of corruption and that will feel great.
Looking over the various tweets etc at #AspenSecurity (or whatever it’s called) gives me hope. As does the new book on World Historical Figure in His Own Mind Steve Bannon. For all the wrong and right reasons. Bannon’s delusions are of the adolescent variety. To the extent that the Trumpistas care about what he imagines he has to offer — not much! — it could be amusing to note any reactions to his unintentionally hilarious pretensions. His Mao collar jackets alone are eye roll worthy. Aging wannabe rockstar looking to influence the King. Plus esoteric library!
I enjoyed this entire thread, including the bit of squabbling. Thanks for bringing up the topic as it is unavoidable. Back to lurking. I still have faith.
jl
@Another Scott: Thanks for the link. Reading it reassured me a little. If Dean is correct, then Trump can’t make his problems go away by firing DOJ staff until he finds some flunky who will fire Mueller IANAL, but I think the bottom line is that enough detail is explicitly spelled out in the description of the one and only lawful procedure for firing Mueller, that Mueller could challenge an unlawful dismissal in court, and almost certainly get a hearing. I would hope the court issues a ruling that allows the investigation to grind on while the firing is adjudicated.
And also, there are signs that at least the Senate is getting tired of Trump and his BS. Which is a high bar, given the BS quotient in the GOP Senate caucus. But Trump’s performance after the failure of McConnell’s attempted swindle was so arrogant, stupid, ignorant and (to the GOP) politically dangerous, that a number of Senators were politely saying “eff him’ afterwards. The GOP Congress will stand behind Trump only so long as he is net political and electoral advantage. That means the House GOP will support Trump until they are in a blind panic if (when? I think ‘when’ is more likely) the polls look disastrous next year. Sad to say, I will never expect an impeachment from this Congress. But the Senate still has honest elections since states aren’t gerrymandered yet, the tipping point for them will come sooner. So, we might have serious Congressional investigations in one chamber.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Frank Wilhoit:
What makes you think the entire military would side with the fascists?
Ksmiami
@SFAW: I’m summering in Los Angeles I’ll find one
James Powell
@Tom:
FTFY
Sab
@schrodingers_cat: Congrats on your citizenship. I am so pleased and proud you still wanted to be one of us. Have you registered to vote yet?
Vhh
@Arclite: Russian company Alfa had a server in basement of Trump Tower. Will that do ya?
Chris
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
History, frankly. There have been uprisings from the American progressive side before – abolitionists, labor radicals – but never on a full blown civil war. That was them. We tend towards reform not revolution.
And pragmatically, right now, progressives tend to be underrepresented in armed organizations both official and non governmental.
Bill Arnold
@Emerald:
Yep. And also, in part said by others, some of the raw dirt is held by other parties, including parties within the US and parties outside the US and probably including both state (some of which we (US) have intelligence sharing relationships with :-) and non-state actors. One big potential elephant (or elephant-killer :-) in the room is Russia.
Which is an obtuse way of saying that the pressure will be relentless, and mostly not controlled by the Republicans[1], and some of the releases/leaks will be elegantly timed for maximal effect.
[1] Though one wonders about the Koch/Pence relationship, and possible plays to save the Party. If one is paranoid.
Lincoln Phillips
@Amaranthine RBG: This except, I’m betting on Mueller firing in September.
Slightly_peeved
@jl:
Given that Trump’s already committed crimes in plain sight, and that Meuller must be aware of the potential of this happening, I wonder if the investigation is making sure that they’re ready to file the charges they have strong evidence for as soon as the plug gets pulled. Like agile development for a criminal case.