Health Affairs has a new article by Griffith et al that looks at health insurance coverage changes from 2015-2017. It is what many expected:
Nationally, we estimated that uninsurance rates fell by 7.1 percentage points from 2013 to 2016 but rose by 1.2 points during 2017. Thus, roughly 17 percent of the adjusted change in coverage from the ACA’s early years had been reversed by the end of 2017.
Paul Shafer and I had estimated that the actions of the first ten days of the Trump Administration led to a loss of 24% to 30% of the expected last week enrollments on Healthcare.gov. Other research has shown a continual drop in the coverage rates since 2017. There is a large and growing literature on administrative burdens and frictions in both the Exchange space and the Medicaid space where people have to jump through more hoops to remain covered. The Exchanges have stabilized for subsidized enrollment but the non-subsidized enrollment has fallen off the cliff.