Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

This fight is for everything.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

If you cannot answer whether trump lost the 2020 election, you are unfit for office.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

You are here: Home / Politics / The Senate and COVID-19

The Senate and COVID-19

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The Senate as a body is at risk of losing some members over the next several months. Senators have some significant risk factors:

  • Older than average and median Americans
  • Central nodes of massive networks that are dispersed in time and space
  • Lots of travel

  • Motivated partisan reasoning may be at play

    • Senators have excellent health care resources available to them at low to no cost as a major protective factor.

    Over a fourth of the Senate is over age 70. A seventh are over age 75.

    Senators are temporarily replaced by appointments made by their home state governor. Most states will allow unconstrained choices to be made by the governor. I would assume that a Democratic governor will appoint a replacement level Democrat and a Republican governor will appoint a replacement level Republican. When the governor and the senator are from the same party, that will not shift many if any outcomes in the Senate.

    However of the Senators over the age of 70, there are nine Senators (2 Republicans, 7 Democrats/aligned with Democrats) whose home state governor is from the opposite party. The Senate could swing wildly depending on the health and mortality of some Senators.

    Reader Interactions

    112Comments

    1. 1.

      Raoul

      Fucking McConnell says he will recess the Senate till at least March 23 without taking up any sort of Covid relief bills. Tells you all you need to know about the utter hostility and contempt he and his fellow GOPers have for the citizens who elect them.

      We have to boot those jackasses out in November. (We have to make sure we have elections in November, I think on my more worried days!)

    7. 7.

      Calouste

      Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham are at the moment in self-quarantine. Are there any others that we know of?

      Note that Graham went onto self-quarantine because he was at Mar-a-Lagofuckyourself at the same time that the Brazilian who tested positive was there. Of course a lot of other people who were there (the shitgibbon, the Brazilian shitgibbon (how do you say “shitgibbon” in Portuguese?)) who haven’t gone into self-quarantine.

    8. 8.

      debbie

      Rod Dreher is not amused by Trump’s statement the other night:

      Watching him, I realized the cost of a president having pissed away his authority these past three years, with his daily juvenile tweets and schoolyard rhetoric. The country needs a president now who can inspire, galvanize, and lead. Tonight I saw a president who looked tired, afraid, and completely unconvincing. He ended by calling for an end to partisanship, and the nation coming together to fight this threat. That’s what any president should do in his position, in a moment of great national crisis. It is difficult to imagine a president with less credibility to make that ask.

    9. 9.

      Ryan

      It seems wrong to set up a system this way.  Governors should be obligated to replace party senators with other party members.  The common enemy here is the virus, we should not be in the position to root for particular outcomes beyond the immediate threat.

    10. 10.

      Raoul

      @me_up_at_1: Manu Ranju of CNN says the Senate is not going on recess. McConnell is still an evil bastard, but I guess they got enough of an earful to understand that their jobs were on the line. They’re taking Friday off, though. That looks classy.

      eta @debbie and others: too late for me to edit the first comment. Things are moving pretty fast.

    11. 11.

      Martin

      And after hours of completely unnecessary drama, the Australian GP is cancelled. Apparently half the drivers had already flown home, making their vote pretty clear.

    13. 13.

      Wag

      @Ryan:

      Idealistically I would like to agree with you, but if McConnell were to die in office we could gain a Dem AND lose his vile snake like presence, a pair of things that I would consider wins…

    15. 15.

      Dan B

      On a healthcare note a friend sent a long post about personal preventative measures from Professir James Robb, MD FCAP, UCSD Pathology, molecular virologist.  He did research on coronaviruses DNA in the 70’s and has kept up with current research.  He repeats the usual recommendations for sanitary methods and also recommends zinc lozenges.  Best use is lie down and allow the lozenge to slowly dissolve and coat your throat.

      He says that the nose and mouth are the routes to infection and the virus can only attach to lung cells, not to cells lining the throat.  Also he states that coronavirus containing droplets can remain on surfaces for a week so cleaning your hands after touching them is essential.

      My partner’s friend dragged him to Walgreen’s after hearing my text.  He’s chauffeuring her to radiation.  And he hates shopping!  Poor guy…

    22. 22.

      delk

      David Brody, chief political analyst for Pat Robertson’s Christian Broadcasting network pretty much called trump a liar. False statements is his euphemism. Of course all those evangelicals are going to be upset with trump. All those sweet,sweet, social security checks won’t be filling up their coffers when their marks die off.

    24. 24.

      Mary G

      WaPo visits the Villages in Florida:
      I’m a hand-shaker: Many older Americans are playing down the coronavirus threat while others opt for safety. As experts plead for social distancing, some seniors continue to get together for movies, Zumba and concerts.

      When her book club canceled its cruise to the western Caribbean, with one of the 10 club members worried about getting sick and others worried about getting stuck at sea amid a potential outbreak, Przybylowicz was a little miffed.

      “For me, that would’ve just extended my vacation,” she said. “As long as someone was feeding me and changing my bed, I would be fine.” She said she thinks the ships are sanitized and safe.

      “There’s no reason we can’t go,” she said. “People are too worried. The flu has killed more people than the coronavirus, and people haven’t been as concerned over the flu.”

      Some are more sensible:
      Nieman said she was less worried about herself — “when I go to the doctor, I get a clean bill of health most every time” — but her next-door neighbors are in their 80s. She is afraid of getting infected by the coronavirus and unintentionally spreading it to friends who are even more vulnerable.

      “I’m real protective of them,” she said. “I don’t want anything to happen to them.”

      She wonders why her friends who say they will be fine aren’t thinking beyond themselves when they travel and return.

      “They go everywhere.” Nieman said. “Viking cruises, safaris, huge trips all over the world. And I worry about being around all that.”

    25. 25.

      Martin

      @Roger Moore: Yeah, no kidding. They really fucked up on that one. I mean, everyone knows that Ferrari is the F1 golden child, but I don’t think they were expecting that kind of backlash from the other teams.

    27. 27.

      TS (the original)

      @Martin:

      And after hours of completely unnecessary drama, the Australian GP is cancelled

      At the very last minute when folks queued up outside for 3 hours in close proximity to everyone else.  We had our first match of the NRL (football) season last night. I can’t imagine it lasting past this weekend Hope they sort it in a more timely manner.

    28. 28.

      8 man shell

      @Frankensteinbeck:

      Not my first choice for a path to victory, obvs.

      But if it came down to a couple of million deaths versus a Trump second term, that would not be a tough decision for me.

    30. 30.

      Martin

      @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Nobody does, but you have to admit, if you were to weaponize the ‘Ok, boomer’ meme, it would look exactly like this – immediate reductions in GHG emissions, a near-collapse of late-stage capitalism, and all of the Trump/Brexit climate denier voters falling ill and dying.

      When the United Federation of Planets emerges from the ashes, its flag will be be an illustration of avocado toast.

    31. 31.

      Jay

      Asked about European countries being blindsided, Trump invokes EU tariffs. He says: "When they raise taxes on us, they don't consult us. And I think that's probably one and the same. They've done things — European Union, has done some very big tax raises…not so much with me."— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) March 12, 2020

    33. 33.

      Jay

      Top Fox personalities accused news outlets THIS WEEK of having over-torqued virus coverage in attempt to harm Trump politically. Hannity decried the "hysteria."Today, Fox execs told employees to work from home, referring to the pandemic as a "crisis." https://t.co/wBPV3TY5XN— Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) March 12, 2020

    34. 34.

      SiubhanDuinne

      The Metropolitan Opera has pulled the plug, at least for the rest of this month:

      Dear Friends –

      As you are certainly aware, normal activities are very much in flux throughout the world due to the coronavirus outbreak, and New York City is no exception. In view of this, please be advised the Met has canceled all public performances through March 31, inclusive of the planned HD transmission of Der Fliegende Holländer this Saturday.

      Disappointed — I love Dutchman and was very much looking forward to this performance — but it’s clearly a smart decision, and not really surprising.

    36. 36.

      Jay

      If you’re wondering whether it’s an overreaction to cancel large gatherings and public events (and I love basketball), here’s a useful primer as to why these measures can slow the spread of the virus and save lives. We have to look out for each other. https://t.co/Ld7Uc8sPTQ— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) March 12, 2020

    38. 38.

      jl

      Wow, some in the press will bothesides anything, even when potentially many many lives are at stake.

      Richard Engel
      @RichardEngel
      The reaction/overreaction in the US to the virus seems largely political. Trump’s critics have no confidence in him, so they panic. Others defend Trump no matter what he does and don’t listen to anyone else. Not a recipe for keep calm and carry on. When broken you can’t be strong.

      https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1238229943785578505

      Engel should be criticized for such a dumb and dangerous statement.

    39. 39.

      bluehill

      If repubs can get trump to declare a national emergency, that would be an indication (to me) that some adults are starting to take over. Apparently it’s something states have been asking for and trump has refused to do because of the optics. I know low bar, but baby steps.

    41. 41.

      Aleta

      @Calouste:
      His  office:   “Senator Graham was at Mar-a-Lago last weekend. He has no recollection of direct contact with the President of Brazil, who is awaiting results of a coronavirus test, or his spokesman who tested positive.”   But, “in an abundance of caution and upon the advice of his doctor, Senator Graham has decided to self-quarantine awaiting the results of a coronavirus test.”
      No symptoms,  no travel to a restricted country, no direct contact with an infected person.  How  does he qualify for one  of the coveted tests?

    42. 42.

      Baud

      @Aleta:

      Ugh. As much as I dislike Graham, I hope every member of Congress is being given the best medical care right now.  They are old, and we don’t want the risk identified in this post to come to fruition.

    43. 43.

      danielx

      TBogg paraphrase:

      Your MAGA hat won’t get you into heaven any more.

      Not that it ever would have.

    44. 44.

      danielx

      @8 man shell:

      I can understand the sentiment, but…I can’t think of a way to finish this sentence.

      I’m in the high risk category, so go fuck yourself. Do it today.

    45. 45.

      Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

      @Aleta:

      No symptoms,  no travel to a restricted country, no direct contact with an infected person.  How  does he qualify for one  of the coveted tests?

      Wasn’t Matt Gaetz tested recently? He can get a test because of who he is and his position. John Q Public can go piss up a pole unless they need to be hospitalized

    46. 46.

      8 man shell

      @joel hanes:

      @danielx:

      What, you think that Trump’s reelection won’t lead to more deaths than that?

      ACA will be gone, SS/medicare/medicaid will be gutted if not eliminated, and so on.

      Need I go through the thousands of other horrible consequences that fall short of actual deaths?

      Pull your head out of the sand.  Trump represents an existential threat to this country and it’s citizens.

    47. 47.

      jl

      Should be noted that there is a large research literature, and sets of federal and state guidelines,  on best response to the next flu pandemic. This Covid-19 pandemic has a lot in common with that Some parts of the flu research aren’t useful, for example we don’t have a vaccine for Covid-19, and response approaches that use quick target ring immunization around outbreaks aren’t relevant. But a lot of it is. There are reviews that sift through the literature, evaluating strategies stratified by basic reproduction number.

      Also, there is a literature on how to do costly and socially disruptive closures in a sustainable way over a prolonged epidemic. For example, trigger points for closing schools for a week or two, and then triggers for reopening them. Idea is to use school closures to help reduce transmission without bringing a whole school system to a halt for 3 months or more. So, when a governor who doesn’t like Trump announces a two week school closure, they are not panicking. They are most likely listening to state public health expert who knows the literature and recommending that measure as the best next move to reduce severity of the epidemic.

      Also a big literature on value of use of mass travel bans. There is even a review of what government and commercial data bases are best to use for estimation of effect. Consensus that they are just delaying tactics useful at first sign of pandemic. Wonder if Trump considered that in his error filled description of that policy in his speech.

       

      Edit: changed some fat fingure ‘flue’ to ‘flu’. This isn’t about ‘spare the air’ days.

    48. 48.

      Marcopolo

      The only thing that crosses my mind when I hear the Senate is recessed for the weekend is how many of them are flying home? It would just be dumb for a bunch of people over 70 to be flying back & forth this weekend which is what these senators have done regularly for years.

    49. 49.

      Jay

      UPDATE: In response to my tweet @Amtrak provided this response: “We are not asking employees to take unpaid leave, we will be rolling out a voluntary leave program for non-mission critical employees that are willing to take time off on an unpaid basis.” @wusa9 #coronavirus— Eric Flack (@EricFlackTV) March 11, 2020

    50. 50.

      jl

      @Baud: Forgot to say that tweet was found on Josh Marshall’s twitter feed on the Covid-19 epidemic, which is a very valuable information resource. It has gotten NYC-centric, but since he lives there and his business is headquartered there, it’s for understandable reasons.

    51. 51.

      Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

      @jl:

      Wow. People don’t trust Trump to handle this for valid reasons. He hasn’t handled this well at all so far. The tests were botched and he has consistently valued the stock market/economy over lives. That’s not the same as sycophantic Trump cultists sticking their fingers in their ears and going “Lalalala I can’t hear you!”

    52. 52.

      JoyceH

      Something that occurred to me today. I saw a medical expert say that if this pandemic is not catastrophic, it will be because the public self-isolates/quarantines on their own initiative, and that seems to be happening. Local governments and businesses and individuals are deciding this is serious and doing what they can to mitigate, without any guidance or assistance from the feds.

      And it reminded me of something I heard several weeks ago. Some communications expert said that when a person gets caught lying repeatedly, what happens is, when they say something, people don’t think ‘well, that might not be true,’ no – they immediately assume that the exact OPPOSITE of what the liar is saying is true.

      So it could be that Trump’s weeks of happy talk and downplaying the problem is what convinced the public that this pandemic really IS serious.

    55. 55.

      grammypat

      I wonder if anyone is looking into transmission via insects.

      Mosquitoes especially, but also other flying/biting insects, are potential problems … IF they are capable of carrying the trumpneumonia virus.

    56. 56.

      Jay

      not to put too fine a point on it, but at the height of a global pandemic, the lead white house reporter for the most important newspaper in america has retweeted a fake news story about tom hanks receiving wilson the volleyball in quarantine. please send help. pic.twitter.com/nhp4i7lU8z— jord (@jordansarge) March 12, 2020

    60. 60.

      Jay

      @grammypat:

      carona virus’s are not transmissible by insects, blood transfustions, sexual contact with out spitting, face touching, kissing, etc.

    63. 63.

      jl

      @JoyceH: “Local governments and businesses and individuals are deciding this is serious and doing what they can to mitigate, without any guidance or assistance from the feds.”

      We are lucky that, back in the day when science and planning were fashionable in the federal government, here were a series of federally sponsored task forces going back decades that produced several iterations of guidelines for next flu pandemic. Probably every supervising public and private public health professional is familiar with those plans, and probably many participated in the task forces at some time or another.

      It is very dangerous that the US exec is irresponsible and not providing good leadership. But I think a mistake to think that state and local officials are forced into desperate improvisations or doing things on the fly because of that.

      There are binders and binders full of researched guidelines and protocols all over the country.

    65. 65.

      CaseyL

      OT, sorry:  A Seattle artist has set up a gofundme for Seattle artists being hit hard by coronavirus-related cancellations of festivals, jobs, and shows. If you feel like contributing, you can do so here:  Fundraiser for Artists Relief.

      I first read about it under the Twitter hashtag #WeGotThisSeattle – and if you like a good ugly cry, made up of hope and appreciation and civic pride, I recommend it.  Seattle people and businesses are stepping up in a very big way.  Seattle’s fanciest restaurant, Canlis, is closing its sit-down dining room and opening a Burger Drive Thru and a Bagel Shop in its parking lot, so its employees can keep working and Seattle diners can keep eating.  (Canlis says they will also be starting a delivery service.)

      And the Seattle Symphony will broadcast a free video and livestream starting tonight.

      I’ve bitched and moaned about how big, rude, and crowded Seattle has become.  Tonight I’m falling in love with my city all over again.

      Now excuse me while I go cry some more.

    66. 66.

      Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

      @Calouste:

      and all the stock market did in response to his actions was drop further and faster…

      It’s very ironic. He’s in the hospitality business. He’s probably going to get hosed

    67. 67.

      Mallard Filmore

      @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

       

      Wasn’t Matt Gaetz tested recently? He can get a test because of who he is and his position. John Q Public can go piss up a pole unless they need to be hospitalized

      Ayn Rand summed it up nicely in Atlas Shrugged: “the politics of pull”.

    70. 70.

      grammypat

      @Jay:  Got links?

      Since this one is ‘novel,’ my question is whether anyone has looked into the issue for it, in particular.   Assuming that because it’s a coronavirus it will behave exactly like all of the others is wishful thinking.

    71. 71.

      Calouste

      I’m now reading that the shitgibbon is cancelling a rally and that his campaign offices are getting deep cleaned because of this “hoax”.

    74. 74.

      Mallard Filmore

      @JoyceH:

       

      So it could be that Trump’s weeks of happy talk and downplaying the problem is what convinced the public that this pandemic really IS serious.

      They also have the example of Italy, not a shithole country, to look at.

    75. 75.

      chris

      Today in “Let me google that for you.” On the front page of the WAPO:

      Trading high-fives for booty bumps: How a D.C. fitness studio is combating coronavirus

      Twelve year olds like me are giggling, others not so much. Gotta laugh when you can these days.

    76. 76.

      Roger Moore

      @Marcopolo:

      The only thing that crosses my mind when I hear the Senate is recessed for the weekend is how many of them are flying home?

      Don’t worry!  They’ll be getting rides in swanky private jets, not sitting in coach with the plebs.

    77. 77.

      Ksmiami

      @Mnemosyne: no one here means any of the bj and extended family harm it’s just if Trump supporters can not handle the truth the fall out is on them. For a long time, I’ve been saying we cannot build a modern society when a large percentage of the country won’t accept basic scientific facts. Do take care of yourself and your mom- my parents are in their 80s and still going to church etc…

    80. 80.

      Dan B

      @grammypat:  It’s a disturbing thought but our common cold coronavirus doesn’t seem to have a mosquito vector.  I’ll see if I can get an answer from the UCSD pathology professor.  It’s a three degrees of separation si don6count on it.

    81. 81.

      Quiltingfool

      I commented a few days ago about my mother; she has dementia and my father has had to take her to the ER 3 times since Friday, as she was unable to swallow food or liquids.  Well, she had an UTI,  and since she couldn’t swallow, they gave her antibiotics intravenously, hence hospital stay.  She started to eat and drink today, but the doctor told my father that she was at a point where she would need long term care, i.e. nursing home.  She will probably have more bad days than good.  Plus the doctor wanted to wean her off some of her medications.  So, my dad agreed, got a nursing home and hospice lined up (and he hated to put her there, but home care was becoming difficult – rock and a hard place basically.  She went in today, which happened to be the day the nursing homes in KC Mo started covid 19 quarantine.  My father and I could not go in with her and they don’t know when he can see her.  I truly understand why they did it, and they need to protect their patients, but it was heartbreaking.  My poor mother will think she has been abandoned, and my dad almost broke down in tears when we got home because he didn’t think to kiss her when she was being taken inside – we were both in shock.  I am so afraid she might die without us seeing each other, but then I think that my mother will be so angry at us she will “will” herself to live just so she can let us know all about it.  I hope so.  Not a good day for either of my parents, and I am so sad for them – and myself, too.

    82. 82.

      NYCMT

      @SiubhanDuinne: My son got to watch a full dress rehearsal of La Cenerentola at the Metropolitan Opera on Monday, and came home with a striking, but fleeting, fever. It’s the right call.

    85. 85.

      Kirk Spencer

      I think this fits here.

      A couple of days ago, Adam made the point that by the end of May our world would be significantly different due to Corvid-19 breaking out of containment. (I’m paraphrasing, but that’s the gist.)

      I agree, because I do not believe we will overlook 300,000 deaths in the US from this pandemic. And 300,000 deaths is optimistic – /very/ optimistic.

      Earlier today I did a worst-case swag based on known numbers for where I live – Houston, TX. What I said was that if we continued business as usual (meaning follow FOXs guidelines) we’d be burying 250,000 Houston residents by the end of the year – the vast majority before the fourth of July.

      I got challenged as that’s rather staggering. While the numbers stood I decided to do some research because I realized I wasn’t certain of the /sources/ of those numbers.
      So it turns out that almost all the US references to “how many people will catch Covid-19” goes back to an interview with Marc Lipsitch run in /The Atlantic/ back in late February. Now just recently Chancellor Merkel said her experts were forecasting 60-70% and that’s the number range I used, but what Dr. Lipsitch forecast at the time was 40-70%. In the two weeks past he’s revised that guess a couple of times and it’s now anywhere from 20 to 60% of the population and probably 40%. Quite a range, but bear with me.

      The current estimate of 3.4% morbidity is from WHO. There are a number of challenges both higher and lower. Both sets of challenges use the same argument – that the WHO number is based on known cases averaged across several different anti-pandemic stratagems. Both groups point out that most nations aren’t taking the extreme clampdowns of China, and that while all deaths come from the narrow ‘critical’ infection band the proportion increases if the nations are less proactive and/or active.

      The groups arguing the number is too low point at the latter point and argue the true number should be 4 to 5%, with reductions based on how well the health system is able to cope.

      The group arguing the number is too high point out that most nations really haven’t thrown their medical systems into high gear, and besides there are a lot of unknown infected individuals who have not died, and all that means the true number should be under 2% and as low as 0.5%. As a side-note, Dr. Lipsitch falls into this group.

      Finally there’s an agreement that even though there’s no existing resistance to coronaviruses, even if we don’t get a timely vaccine we’ll start seeing herd immunity effects as the number of infected and recovered crosses about 50%. That’s why nobody is predicting 90 or 100% infection rates.

      So let’s start plugging in some numbers. First, I’m using 330 million as the US population number. It’s a cleaned up number from the current estimate.

      Let’s start with the absolute best natural (that is, no miracle early vaccine) case. That’s only 20% of the population gets infected, and the disease only has a morbidity rate of 0.5%.  That comes to 0.001, one in a thousand, or a total population morbidity of 0.1%. Remember my top, optimistic number? 330,000 deaths from Corvid-19 this year. At one in a thousand, almost everyone will know someone who died of the disease by the time of the elections.

      Let’s grab Dr Lipsitch’s “probable” number and apply the most pessimistic morbidity of the optimists. That’s 40% infected, and 2% morbidity. 0.008 — 0.8% is the number this time. That’s 8 times as many deaths; over 2.6 million people. One in 125 people means not only will people know someone who died, they’ll have been close enough to attend the funeral. Funerals.

      And those are optimistic numbers. 60% – Dr. Lipsitch’s high number – and still only 2% morbidity is .0125% total morbidity. That’s one in 80 people for just under 4 million deaths. If we start dragging in the pessimists’ numbers it keeps going on up to over 11 million deaths.

      But let’s stick with the optimists. Because even that is hard to take, and at the same time it’s pretty much the probable minimum we’ll see in the US.

      By the time we vote in the general election, at least 330,000 US Residents will have died from CORVID-19.

      By the way, those pessimists? 70% infected, 5% morbidity? 11,550,000 deaths. One out of every 29 people. 3.5% total population morbidity. I don’t think so, but I do think I’m washing my hands a lot.

      = = =
      For the inevitable first question, no. I don’t do this for a living. I spent almost 15 years as a librarian. I spent a few years as a business analyst. My biggest work with numbers these days is working probabilities so the RPGs I GM are challenging without being impossible.  All these numbers are from public documents with basic math, and I’d be delighted if someone with more experience could spot a hole and make them smaller.

    89. 89.

      Kirk Spencer

      @Mallard Filmore: Maybe, but I like it to have some relevance to the topic besides just Covid. I also think my comment would severely divert what promises to be an interesting and important discussion triggered by Tom’s post.

       

      edit – added “also”.

    91. 91.

      jl

      @Kirk Spencer:@Kirk Spencer: I am not a doctor and not an epidemiologist, but I have done stat and econ consulting on infectious disease research projects. And I am familiar with the type of models they use.

      Unfortunately Lipsitch isn’t posting how he does these calculations (at least I can’t find them after several searches). But they seem to be estimates of the final size of the epidemic after everyone who will get infected is infected. Also unfortunately, that number is not very sensitive to reductions in transmission unless you can knock the basic reproduction rate down to close to 1, say 1.2 or 1.1 through controlling transmission.

      Lipsitch tweeted last week that he is revising his numbers down in light of new evidence, so you want to check how recent your numbers are.

      The good news is that if the world can get the reproductive number down to 1.4 or 1.3 due to control efforts, the length of the epidemic will be spread out over years. it might even turn into what looks like a series of small to moderate outbreaks.  Then we can buy time to develop vaccine, or very much better supportive care before most of those infected die.

      Let’s hope for the best.

    93. 93.

      Kirk Spencer

      Thank you, jl. The numbers I used were his March 2 numbers. As you said there was no methodology, and as a researcher I’m frustrated that everything is coming from a single unsupported/unchallenged voice. But it’s what I have right now, so lower numbers would be soothing, and hopefully right.

    94. 94.

      Jay

      @grammypat:

      the WHO article is a basic “no”. The reality is that major research has been conducted for years on the transmisability vectors for all virus families and basically, to make a long story short, respiratory viruses can only be transmitted from a compatible host’s respiratory infection, ( eg. swine flu) to a humans via the common  transmission routes, ( coughing, sneezing, french kissing, hands to face after touching) and then only when the virus is compatible with both hosts biology.

      In other words, if mosquito’s had human like lungs, ( which they don’t), human like biology, ( which they don’t), and they coughed in your face, they would be a potential disease transmission vector.

    96. 96.

      jl

      @Kirk Spencer: There is published research using early data from the first outbreaks in China. They simulate the effect of reducing the reproduction number down into 1.3 range. The epidemic curve is pushed way way way down, and the epidemic would take several years to play out, not several months. In that case, as I said, prevalence would be so low that there is a good chance that deterministic models become inaccurate.  Random stochastic fluctuations in transmission might turn the epidemic into what looks like periodic outbreaks. There is also research published that gives some guidance from rate of new cases when we can tell reproductive number is getting pushed down below 1.5 range. So, we might be able to gauge progress in close to real time.

      So, if control efforts can be that successful, then the world buys an enormous about of time to find ways to save lives of the infected.

    97. 97.

      Kirk Spencer

      @jl: But the ones I keep reading say (simplifying) “IF” not “ARE”.

      IF we can get the reproduction number down, not we ARE seeing the reproduction number come down.

      From my vantage, that looks similar to “IF we can get a vaccine in six months…” or “IF we can get all the nations to do effective containment…”

      I’m not seeing it in the US at this time.

    98. 98.

      CaseyL

      @Quiltingfool: I am so very sorry.  It’s hard enough to make the decision to put a parent or spouse in care… but the added pain of having to isolate from them.  Does the hospice/nursing home have computers? Smartphones?  Even Skype or Facetime might be better than nothing…

    99. 99.

      phein60

      @Ryan: Many states require just that.   I don’t have a link to a composite reference — I don’t believe we’ve needed one before now –, but I know it applies in some of the cases that would be at issue.

    100. 100.

      brendancalling

      I’m a musician in Nashville and my day job is building stages for conventions and conferences.

      My Friday and Tuesday gigs were canceled and there are no shifts due to canceled conferences. All of the guys I work with, musicians and crew members, are worried. The guys who work on Broadway for tips are fucked too.

      I don’t wish harm on anyone (actually, yes I do, just not here because of civility). I instead hope the stupid old people who voted for Trump realize he’s put their actual lives in danger, never mind their Golden Years, and vote accordingly.

      Is Biden the Grandpa-whisperer? We can only pray that is so.

    101. 101.

      CaseyL

      @gwangung: Thanks!

      The link seems not to work, and in any case I deleted my FB account some time ago.  But I will keep an eye out for the streaming service – that would be amazing!

    102. 102.

      Dan B

      @Quiltingfool: I put my mother in a nursing home and told her it was so my partner and I could go on vacation.  We did but it was a ruse to get her in the home permanantly.  I’d been on the verge of rage off and on for weeks partly at “the gay guy doesn’t have a family” just my partner, partly neglected partner.  We moved her into several different homes and the last, a big sorta funky no-frills  place was terrific.  The staff was fantastic and there were enough people that there were several groups where she fit in.

      The week she passed away I had a touch of flu and didn’t want to give it to her or the other residents.  A staff person stayed the last few hours holding her hand.  I felt guilty for not being there but life can be unfair so I’ve turned it into a lesson.

      I hope your situation is as easy as possible and the nursing home does the best job.

    106. 106.

      satby

      @Dan B: condolences, even though it’s in the past. I also missed my mother’s passing as I was driving to be with her. We make the best decisions we can at the time.

    107. 107.

      ziggy

      @Quiltingfool: Been thinking of you. So sorry that this had to pass at this time. Hopefully someone inside will help you set up so you and your father can Skype with her. Best wishes.

    108. 108.

      Quiltingfool

      Thanks for all your kind words!  This place is the best!  I did suggest FaceTime to my dad, but he is a raging Luddite about computers and the Internet.  So, no go on that, but he can talk to her on the phone.  I think the nursing home needs some time to figure things out because they just went into lockdown today, so we’ll see what happens.  The safety of the patients is most important.  A nurse did call my dad and he was able to tell her things about my mom, and she told him Mom was doing okay and being pleasant and cooperative, so that made him feel a little bit better.  He is just devoted to her and his sole focus is on her well-being.  I worry about him taking care of himself, but he won’t hear any of that.  I have very stubborn parents.

    109. 109.

      Quiltingfool

      @Dan B: I’m so sorry you weren’t able to be with your Mom.  That breaks my heart.  Peace be upon you, my friend.

    110. 110.

      frosty

      @Dan B: My siblings and I saw my mother about a week before she passed. when we told her care facility to take her off the antibiotics that were keeping her alive. They told us not to try to get back (350 miles for me, 450 for my brother), that we’d done what we should. She passed away about a week later with nursing staff with her.

      Hope that helps you reconcile your situation.

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