Paul Krugman in his recent column on the role of economic relief policies including extended and expandisve unemployment insurance has an interesting paragraph about leverage:
One last thing: My sense is that Republicans have a delusional view of their own bargaining position. They don’t seem to realize that they, not the Democrats, will be blamed if millions are plunged into penury because relief is delayed; to the extent that they’re willing to act at all, they still imagine that they can extract concessions like a blanket exemption of businesses from pandemic liability.
If unemployment insurance is not extended next week, tens of millions of people will see a massive drop in their standard of living and a massive increase in stress. Parties that control the White House going into an election will be blamed for crappy economic situations. The out party is not blamed even if they are obstructive; that was Senate Majority Leader’s core tactical insight and behavior in 2009-2010. It is a either a massive mis-read of leverage or a nihilistic sociopathy that the Democrats will fold despite receiving massive political benefits from not folding because they give a damn about minimizing pain.
the piece that has me scratching my head is from the Washington Examiner and a story about Senator Johnson’s (R-WI) willingness to appropriate CSR in exchange for policy concessions from Democrats:
Johnson told the Washington Examiner Friday he hopes to put out legislative text sometime next week on a proposal that funds insurer payments in exchange for reforms to Obamacare. His proposal includes expanding the duration of short-term plans and expanding health savings accounts…
Johnson also wants to let all Americans buy catastrophic plans, not just those under 30 years old as is the practice now.
He seems to think that Democrats need to offer policy concessions to protect the individual market. I think he is wrong…
It is a shift from a narrowly structured, tightly means tested subsidy to a more broadly structured, loosely means tested subsidy.These are acceptable long term outcomes for Democrats and liberals. More people get covered. If there are no 1332 waivers, the coverage expansion is expensive and inefficient. If states use 1332 waivers to subsidize off-Exchange individuals with a reinsurance program, more people will get covered and the spending will be more efficient….
Inaction means, over the long run, more people will get low(er) out of pocket expenses/lower deductible insurance for lower premiums through structured, subsidized exchanges. I think that after a year or two, the expected social contract of what “acceptable” publicly subsidized insurance will move to Gold instead of Silver plans. Lower cost Gold plans and very affordable Bronze plans will increase long run uptake of PPACA insurance among people who earn between 200 percent and 400 percent FPL.
Understanding and projecting out basic policy implications is a key determinant to figure out how leverage plays out. Leverage determines the possibility space. When there is a massive dissonance between actual and perceived leverage, negotiations are likely to be a mess.
James E Powell
Blaming Democrats for everything – and getting the press/media and about half the country to agree – has been such a successful strategy for Republicans for the last thirty years or so, that they no longer have any other strategy.
They blamed 9/11 on Clinton, the 2008 financial crisis on Jimmy Carter, and the bailouts of the banks on Obama. If it doesn’t work this time – and I think it won’t – it will be the first time while.
Frankensteinbeck
Only one person’s decision making process is relevant here: Mitch McConnell’s. He’s an asshole of the first water who, he’s not stupid but not a genius, his main talent is obstruction, and his publicly known priorities are ‘campaign contributions for the Republican Party’ and ‘staying Senate Majority leader.’ My observation of him is that he really hates the plebes, probably for electing Obama as his boss, and he has a strong personal desire to gut the safety net and make the vermin suffer. I figure we’re watching him drag his feet as knowing that further economic collapse shrinks his odds of retaining his Majority Leader status battles with his hatred of helping the weak in any way. Also throw in personal antipathy towards Nancy.
low-tech cyclist
I’ll take “nihilistic sociopathy” for $200, Alex.
That’s their true, hideous source of leverage: the Dems give a damn about minimizing pain, and the Republicans don’t.
patroclus
I agree with Krugman – McConnell does not have the leverage he thinks he does. This situation, in my view, is beat analogous to 1932-3 when the Republicans controlled the Senate and the Dems the House leading into FDR’s election and in the lengthy lame duck thereafter. Garner, Rayburn and the Dems went along with Hoover on creating the RFC, the tax on beer and few other things, but didn’t on much else and the failure to respond more fully to the crisis was blamed squarely on Hoover and the Old Guard Republicans, who were then decimated for half a century. Nancy and Chuck should insist on what they want and if McConnell doesn’t go along, the resulting fiasco will be on him and Trump.
Betty Cracker
@low-tech cyclist: Ha, I had the same thought. I hope Nancy plays hardball. It’ll hurt, but it is necessary, in the same way it hurts but is necessary to extract a rotten tooth.
Roger Moore
@James E Powell:
They tried to blame the 2008 financial crisis on the CRA, but only true believers bought it; if people had bought it we would have had President McCain.
Roger Moore
@low-tech cyclist:
I think it’s some of each. They’re definitely nihilistic sociopaths, but I also think they genuinely believe they’ll get the Democrats to fold.
low-tech cyclist
@Betty Cracker: Yeah, I think she needs to. It’s the only way to get something from the GOP that’s anywhere near enough.
What a motherfucking year.
Litlebritdifrnt
@James E Powell: I am reminded of the video of a Trump supporter wondering why Obama wasn’t in the Oval Office during 911. “Yes I’d like to look into that”.
randy khan
Any suggestion that McConnell has even the slightest leverage is utterly wrong. There are only two players here – the Dems and the White House. Whatever the White House will agree Trump will sign will get between 50 and 53 votes from the Republicans in the Senate, no matter what McConnell might say. And both Pelosi and Schumer know that.
Frankensteinbeck
@randy khan:
Trump is weak. He is breathtakingly, pathetically weak. He will sign whatever McConnell gives him, and only veto it if, like last time, McConnell tells him he can. This is all about McConnell’s decision making process. Nothing gets a vote without McConnell’s approval.
catclub
The most impressive thing in polling (showing that US citizens are not ALWAYS idiots) was how long they kept agreeing that the blame for the GFC was on Bush and not Obama. I was amazed.
charluckles
Probably esoteric for a lot of Americans, but I also don’t think blanket immunity from liability is liable to be a productive or popular policy.
JPL
@catclub: GWB was unpopular even before the meltdown so it was easy to blame him.
Brachiator
Neither Trump nor McConnell care if they fail. They only listen to themselves and to the plutocrats. They certainly don’t listen to the American people.
McConnell has already rejected the Democrats relief bill. They intend to draft their own and make the Democrats react to it.
Various business news sites report that Trump is considering asking for a further tax cut. This is an old idea that has been rattling around in his brain, but he is like that. Once he gets an idea, he keeps trying to find a way to push it. It won’t go far, but it will impede efforts to get something done.
I can’t find it anymore, but I ran across a story noting that the Koch Brothers (or brother, now) and other plutocrats were opposed to further economic relief and helping states financially. When they rattle their bags of campaign money, the GOP pays attention.
patroclus
I’ll add that the GOS is reporting that the current generic Congressional polls are showing Dems with a 9-point lead. It was 6 (mostly) throughout 2018 and ended up 8.6. Public opinion creates leverage and if the polls accurately reflect public opinion, McConnell doesn’t have it.
catclub
@JPL: But my point is that, for all the “miss me yet” bluster of the GOP, even 3 years later the polls still blamed Bush.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Brachiator:
Which is, imo, just further proof that they’re delusional. It’s like they want to lose
cmorenc
In worrisome news. SCOTUS Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s cancer has recurred – though she also announced she intends to remain on SCOTUS. However, should she unfortunately not make it until either Biden takes office on Jan 20, or at least until a new (hopefully D-majority) Senate takes office earlier in January, then it’s near-certain Trump and McConnell will attempt to expeditiously rush a RW nominee swiftly to confirmation. Note that if post-election the new incoming Senate is tied 50-50, the Rs will still have an effective majority until Jan 20th because VP Pence will have the tiebreaking vote
Unfortunately, that would be a scenario (if it untimely happens) where the GOP will have the upper hand, and will no doubt ruthlessly use it to accelerate the confirmation process as quickly as needed to get their replacement on SCOTUS, not Biden’s.
Cheryl Rofer
Jennifer Rubin thinks that Pelosi has the leverage and is using it.
Kent
No matter what Democrats do in Congress, two things are absolutely certain:
So honestly, there is no reason at all not to play hardball and not give an inch on any policies they find objectionable. Most certainly not to start. This is Trump and the GOP’s economy. Let them own it. I have a feeling that there are enough nervous GOP Senators who will cave. I’m sure Nancy knows that too
And PLEASE PLEASE let Trump veto an extension of unemployment benefits. That is something even the most di-hard MAGAts will notice.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@cmorenc:
Just invoke the McConnell Rule: no SCOTUS justice nominees in an election year. Let the American people be heard!
Betty Cracker
@low-tech cyclist: One thing they should consider insisting on right now is recovery funding that lasts well into the next president’s term, with circuit breakers based on unemployment rates, etc. You know the Republicans will sandbag Biden the minute he’s sworn in, if they’re in a position to do so. Don’t make it easy for them to do so.
Kent
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): And how do you propose doing that? They don’t give a fuck and will laugh at Dems who try to complain to the “refs.” We need 3 or 4 GOP Senators on respirators in Covid wards to stop that from happening. Nothing else will get the job done.
cmorenc
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
That “rule” was just an obstructionist ruse and not any sort of principled stance – and will be instantly inoperative the moment the GOP still has the chance to rush a nominee through, whether pre-election or in the “lame duck” period with an incoming D-President and senate majority.
Kent
No, it’s worse than that. The current Senate stays in office post-election as a lame duck Senate until the new one is sworn in on January 3rd.
Mallard Filmore
@charluckles:
Will the government be picking up the medical costs for uninsured victims of this policy?
James E Powell
@Roger Moore:
The campaign to blame Jimmy Carter and people of color was not made in real time. It came later and is regarded as established fact among right-wingers.
Betty Cracker
@cmorenc: I almost put up a post about it, but was overwhelmed by depression, plus the knowledge that at least one or two ghouls would show up to slag Ginsburg for not resigning during Obama’s term. (It’s a perfectly reasonable opinion to have, that she should have resigned! But certain folks seem to take sick glee in expressing it here, and I didn’t want to provide a venue for it.)
Anyhoo, if — dog forbid! — Ginsburg doesn’t make it to 1/20/2021 and McConnell tries to ram through a fetal wingnut successor under the present circumstances, any and all actions to stop that are warranted, IMO, including forming a mob to drag the old turtle out of the well of the senate and fling him into the Potomac.
piratedan
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think it’s more of a case that they feel even if they lose they won’t suffer any kind of personal retribution for their acts and deeds… after all, Nixon got off, Reagan wasn’t even indicted and after the fuckers of the Bush family, they simply had to retire peacefully out of the limelight. So perhaps there’s a “precedent” for their indifference.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Kent:
Or falling out of windows
I was being facetious, tbh
@cmorenc:
joel hanes
@Frankensteinbeck:
[McConnell] really hates the plebes, probably for electing Obama as his boss
McConnell’s hatred of liberals and liberalism predates Obama’s entire political career by many years.
debbie
@Cheryl Rofer:
If it turns out that there’s something that McConnell really, really wants, Nancy should demand that before she agrees to whatever it is, McConnell must release every bill the House has sent to the Senate and provide for an up or down vote on all of them.
debbie
@Betty Cracker:
Seconded, with a pitchfork!
cmorenc
@Betty Cracker:
Fortunately, RBG did learn from Thurgood Marshall’s mistake in resigning for health reasons in October 1991, a year out from the 1992 elections, instead of hanging on (barely) until Clinton took office in Jan 1993 with a democratic Senate majority. (Marshall died Jan 24, 1993). Marshall probably assumed that although President Bush (the elder)’s replacement nominee would be more conservative than Marshall, it would nonetheless be someone respectably on the moderate-right side of the center of the road, and not a total, undeserving disgrace like Clarence Thomas who embodied a repudiation of everything Marshall stood for and had worked for over his lifetime.
If you *really* want to add a hideously scary monster to your nightmare closet, Trump is spiteful enough to nominate William Barr as the next Associate Justice of SCOTUS to replace Ginsburg, though maybe enough GOP Senators will be able to talk him into finding a more stealthy candidate who nevertheless harbors an agenda just as nasty as Barr would pursue if put on SCOTUS
Brachiator
@cmorenc:
Worst case scenario. RBG retires and Clarence Thomas also decides to step down. Trump gets to put two younger justices on the Court.
Eric NNY
Dems better hold firm on the payroll tax relief that the white house is pitching.
David Anderson
@Brachiator: 13 is a wonderful number of justices
Ruckus
@Betty Cracker:
It’s more like an abscess in your lower intestine rather that a tooth, both have to be removed, one is even more unpleasant than the other.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
Isn’t it they think they will get the democrats to fold because they are nihilistic sociopaths?
Roger Moore
@cmorenc:
I think their primary objection to Barr is that he’s 70. They want someone who’s young and will stay on the court for a couple of generations, not someone who’s going to die of a heart attack in a few years.
randy khan
@Frankensteinbeck:
The last three negotiations would beg to differ with you. McConnell was cut out completely. It was the Dems and Mnuchin on behalf of the Administration. There’s no reason to think anything different will happen this time.
Roger Moore
@Ruckus:
I think there’s a big chunk of wishful thinking involved. They have their clever plan, and they’re sure they’ll be able to get it through because they want it to go through.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@joel hanes:
I read that long profile of him a few months back, I think in the New Yorker, and I confess I still don’t really get him. Vague cultural and social resentments and a lust for power for the sake of power?
Kay
@Cheryl Rofer:
Jennifer Rubin is the best Never-Trumper, IMO. She can be the leader of the conservative Democrats.
But they have to be a minority :)
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Maybe he has daddy issues too, like Trump? His father was in the military.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’d bet if trump does get another crack at the court, he’ll go with a woman. There’s one hard core theocon type who’s been in the mix for the last two rounds, Amy Something Something? But I bet Neomi Rao has moved up on trump’s personal list since fucking with the Flynn case, even if women, especially women of south Asian ancestry, don’t fit his ‘central casting’ notions.
Johnny Gentle (Famous Crooner)
@James E Powell: Exactly. What a quaint notion that Democrats won’t be blamed for this economic crisis, just like they totally weren’t blamed for the Great Recession or denied any credit for the recovery they enabled. We all remember how the Tea Party sprang into existence to support Obama and recognize the tremendous difficulties he faced.
When it inevitably happens again, I have little doubt that the idiot media will still swallow it whole, amp,ivy and normalize the attacks, and demand that Democratic guests on their show respond to the “very valid criticism.”
That’s the cycle of GOP’s Infantile governance in a nutshell. Break shit completely, falsely blame others for their mess after they lose, re-take power in a few years when the blaming becomes accepted as fact, break shit completely again, rinse, lather, repeat.
low-tech cyclist
@Betty Cracker: Yeah, once the election is past – regardless of who wins – they won’t be interested in helping anyone who can’t write big checks to the RNC.
If Biden wins, then because they want to sabotage Biden. And either way, because they want a nation of subservient worker bees who are desperate for any job they can get.
So if the Dems want any relief for working families through the winter and early next year, they’ve got to get it now.
rikyrah
@charluckles:
Yeah. get back to work, and if your workplace kills you, oh well. Can’t sue.
rikyrah
RIP :(
Life well lived.
Civil rights leader Rev. C.T. Vivian, who was famously punched by a white sheriff on Selma steps while trying to register black voters in 1965, dies aged 95
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
PUBLISHED: 05:02 EDT, 17 July 2020 | UPDATED: 09:53 EDT, 17 July 2020
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8533235/Civil-rights-veteran-Rev-C-T-Vivian-dead-95.html?ito=push-notification&ci=23386&si=733427
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Johnny Gentle (Famous Crooner):
I think you misread his comment.
low-tech cyclist
@Betty Cracker: I don’t see that there was a good play for Ginsburg after 2010. Up to that point, the GOP at least had some willingness to go along with letting the Dems replace a left-leaning member of the court with another Dem nominee, hence Sotomayor and Kagan.
After the Tea Party wave, it’s hard to see that they’d have had even that much deference. The Dems didn’t have a filibuster-proof majority, and it took them until late 2013 IIRC to get up the gumption to kill the filibuster on lower-court judges. So RBG’s best play from 2011 on, as far as I can see, was to hang in there. All we can do is pray she makes it until January.
Barbara
@David Anderson: 15. I envision a reorganized court — one that hears more cases, for one thing, in panels of five and comes together only to change precedent or on an en banc basis the way other appellate courts do. There is no reason that 9 individuals should hold so much personal power over the rest of us.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@low-tech cyclist: I’ll throw in, dragging one of my many hobby-horses out the stable, that if the left cared about the courts half as much as the right does, RBG’s health wouldn’t loom so large in our minds. Just for starters.
And even I, bitter bearer of long-term grudges that I am, can’t blame any prominent players of the last few cycles. I haven’t seen the courts play a big part of left/Dem discourse since 1992. It a source of constant bafflement to me.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
And when people tried last time in 2016 to make it a big part of left discourse, morons had the gall to complain, “don’t blackmail with the Supreme Court!”
Betty Cracker
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Maybe constantly shitting bricks when one sees RBG’s name trending will help? I don’t know. I just don’t know how people factor is stuff like this, even people I mostly agree with politically, and especially younger voters. I know my 21-year-old daughter is properly focused on the court, but she was rigorously raised. I can’t speak for her peers.
Brachiator
@Eric NNY:
Trump might also pitch another cut in taxes on capital gain income.
Brachiator
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It’s not just the Supreme Court. It’s also about the federal courts and judicial nominees. But there’s not much that can be done when the GOP has control of the Senate.
But I agree with your larger point.
Eric NNY
@Brachiator:
Trickle down baby…….
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Brachiator: I thought their issue was immunity for employers who bring workers into unsafe conditions. Or is that some other bill?
Brachiator
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I don’t know if it is part of this bill. Previously, I had mainly been tracking the tax proposals.
Another Scott
Moscow Mitch’s MO on this stimulus bill has been obvious since May – he wants to run out the clock and force the Democrats in the House to accept what he wants (taking away people’s right to sue, cutting UI and throwing a pittance to the states so that they have to gut their social programs, etc.). He’s hoping to pass a tiny bill then skip town.
That’s the leverage he has. And that’s it.
I’m not sure how Nancy and Chuck will handle that, but I’m sure they’ve been gaming it out for months as well.
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Amen!
P.S. Happy birthday! ????
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Steeplejack:
Thanks!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Brachiator:
So… what did you think I meant by using the word “courts”, plural, twice?
Barry
@randy khan: “Any suggestion that McConnell has even the slightest leverage is utterly wrong. There are only two players here – the Dems and the White House. Whatever the White House will agree Trump will sign will get between 50 and 53 votes from the Republicans in the Senate, no matter what McConnell might say. And both Pelosi and Schumer know that.”
What McConnell has is blocking power – if he doesn’t like something, then it doesn’t come to a vote in the Senate. In addition, he has a lot of affirmative power in the Senate, given that he could nullify a filibuster if push really came to shove (i.e., if he thought that his seat depended on it).