13 cities, 6 days, and a whole lot of people who can’t wait to vote early. pic.twitter.com/lJ11SsOXme
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 29, 2020
Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College now at a record high 89% per FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model.
He’s predicted to win 356 of the 538 electoral votes.https://t.co/heqjPsQdMQ
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) October 29, 2020
“We need the stimulus even more so,” Pelosi says on @BloombergTV. “The fact that we had a better 3rd quarter is because of what we did in the Cares Act, and the subsequent legislation…that put money in the economy.”
“That’s going to wear off, and we need another infusion.” pic.twitter.com/lFaBRwc5IV
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) October 29, 2020
Guess who’s old enough to #vote pic.twitter.com/RU9Lbmotaj
— Vote vote vote vote vote, omg vote (@ESResist) October 28, 2020
Here’s the new Biden/Harris family separation ad, if you haven’t seen it, calling for the creation of a federal task force to reunite on day one if they win. Multiple current career government officials told me today they would join immediately if asked. pic.twitter.com/hwRjWqOqLx
— Jacob Soboroff (@jacobsoboroff) October 29, 2020
On The Road – Jim Appleton – A life behind the lens: People
Zzyzx
I miss having hope. Despite the polls, it just feels like Trump is going to cobble together a win out of the court cheating…
Winter is coming, I haven’t seen a friend since March, I have no plans ever, and the world just feels so so bleak.
OzarkHillbilly
Blech.
debbie
That task force is such a great idea! No better way to show the world we are coming back from the brink of insanity.
Baud
@Zzyzx:
Media seems to back in horse race mode, despite the polls.
NotMax
V minus 4.
All systems go.
p.a.
Somewhere in the first 100 days there has to be big work on beginning to rectify the federal judicial system. IF the current federal judicial system allows a *mostly* honest election. *Mostly* should be enough to win. What the crooks might be reduced to is not winning, but minimizing the loss to prevent activist Dem majorities. And the Senate is still close close close.
sanjeevs
I fear this weeks events may have caused Tucker 2024! to lose precious momentum.
Zzyzx
@Baud: It just looks like Florida isn’t coming through (go figure), PA is going to have all of our votes thrown out, and it’s not like counting on Texas seems like a plan B.
Maybe this is just my Seattle sports fan/lifelong Democratic voter who came of age during Reagan pessimism speaking, or maybe it’s Corona fatigue, but even with the polls, I’m just expecting a court fueled slight Trump win due to the PA vote just stopped.
gkoutnik
A few days ago, Doug put up a fundraising post for Four Directions, a GOTV organization “dedicated to getting Native Americans to the polls.” I thought it was a good idea (everybody votes!) and donated, and then the link appeared in comments the next day. I thought it was still a good idea and added a little more.
Yesterday I got a phone call from Lewis Cohen, Finance Director for Four Directions, thanking me for the donation. Then he said, “Let me ask you what may seem to be a strange question, but… where did you hear about us?”
Turns out they had a big spike in donations, mostly from some place called “Balloon Juice.” They had no idea who we were or how we found them. I described BJ as best I could (that was interesting) and he again expressed his gratitude.
Their motto seems to be: “Advancing equality at the ballot box across Indian Country.” So – thanks, folks, from Indian Country.
Immanentize
Blech to the BLECH! It turned cold and is only going to get colder. It’s 35 now and going into the 20s tonight. I’m going out in a bit to yank what remaining tomatoes are on the plants. Green, but I’ll try…
But I voted yesterday!
Narya
Also, from Maddow last night, electronic vulnerabilities.
I am so out of can’t-evens.
Also also wik: will assemble kitchen pics for respite
Baud
@Zzyzx:
If they stop the vote counting on election night, the Dem Congress will count Biden’s electors.
Betty Cracker
No one trusts Florida or the youth vote — for good reason! But if younger voter turnout doesn’t make a difference this year, it won’t be because the Parkland survivors didn’t work their asses off. Still so proud of those
kidsyoung adults. They stayed laser-focused on voting from the get-go. When the primary didn’t turn out as they’d hoped, they immediately got behind Biden. I heard the other day (on NPR, I think) that youth turnout in Florida during the early voting period exceeds 2016 totals by hundreds of thousands. In a state that is usually decided by less than a point, that’s important.Baud
@gkoutnik:
If he were smart.
NotMax
In other news –
There’s an app for that: although some might rush to dismiss this as a piddling matter….
gkoutnik
@NotMax: God help me, but my first thought when considering the need to get out into the streets following a stolen election was – “Wait – I’m a really old guy – where are the bathrooms?”
Zzyzx
@Baud: thanks.
I’ve created a calming playlist to try to get through this next week but it’s not helping this morning.
And it’s good to remember that this is a great place that’s been actually helping.
Betty Cracker
@gkoutnik: If you don’t mind sharing, how did you describe us?
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
Wouldn’t it be ironic if, in places like Texas, that the people finding themselves in long lines with interminable waits who get locked out of polling places happen to be RWNJs?
gkoutnik
@Betty Cracker: In a really general way – a political blog with a large community which has a history of activism and very generous support of progressive candidates and initiatives. I’m not sure he was a blog person, and I didn’t want to scare him off, so I left it at that. I also gave him the web address.
OzarkHillbilly
@gkoutnik: At the first Women’s March I was very disappointed to find that the organizers did not consider that issue at all and at the 3/4 mark I was forced to go find a parking garage.
Immanentize
@Baud: I’m not sure how they are going to stop states from counting ballots generally when under their own rules counting must continue.. I do think the “received late” question will be a version of voter suppression in some states.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
I hope enough olds do the right thing.
Johnnybuck
Day 2 without power from a tropical storm in Atlanta.
I feel fairly optimistic about Georgia. I think the racists around here are in for a rude awakening. The slumbering giant that is the Democratic coalition is coming.
Baud
@Immanentize:
I don’t either, but that’s the latest theory about how Trump will try to use the court’s to overturn the election.
Geminid
I am in Virginia, but the Charlotte clear channel AM station comes in during the night, so I’ve been checking out the political ads. Jaime Harrison was on one, citing the Contitution Party Senate candidate’s hardline positions on abortion, gun rights, concluding that “Dr. ______ is too conservative for South Carolina.” Dr. _____ has dropped out, urging his supporters to vote for Lindsay Graham. But Graham has a reputation for being a soft conservative, and the Democrats hope to divert conservative voters away from Graham.
raven
@Zzyzx: So you figured the best thing you could do was spread your gloom to other people?
Kay
@Zzyzx:
No they won’t. Biden will win Pennsylvania. The only reason anyone is worried about Pennsylvania is because they’ll count slowly, Trump will be up initially, and he’ll declare victory. But only in Pennsylvania because he won’t have enough even with Pennsylvania. The Plan B isn’t Texas. It’s one, two or three of FL, NC (64/65 Biden) or GA (57 Biden) and that doesn’t even include Arizona, which is 67 Biden. That’s a very solid Plan B.
OzarkHillbilly
I’ll be honest.
I just can’t bring myself to take any of the scenarios where a president who has spent the vast majority of his term at 45% or lower approval, has always trailed his opponent and is currently within kissing cousins of losing by a double digit popular vote margin and wins reelection anyway, serious. Neither do I believe any of the imagined court machinations will be successful enough to overturn such a vote, especially when the state level polling is so against him, and it is backed up by state level polling showing that his fellow party members are scratching and clawing for their political lives in such stalwart red states like KS, SC, IA, GA.
And I haven’t even mentioned Texas which just might have a blue House next year.
So…
I acknowledge the fact that the future is unknowable, that it is in fact possible trump might actually dive thru a second electoral needle at 60 mph, but that is not the way I bet. I put several hundreds of dollars on the bet that not only would he lose but he would cost the GOP the Senate and even more house seats.
If I am wrong, than I will deal with it on Nov 4th.
BRyan
@Baud: made me laugh. Thanks!
Betty Cracker
@gkoutnik: So you left out the naked mopping, profanity-laced rants, etc. — wise decision! :) Seriously, thank you for donating!
Immanentize
@Baud: It’s funny, but after voting yesterday my conspiratorial angst fell off considerably. Like so many things, stopping the vote count theory is probably a fear-based extension of some of the crap that is really happening like not allowing states to expand return date periods. But it really doesn’t make sense unless the plan is to take over every county in the country with armed troops and seize the whole of the government of several states on November 4. And if that happens, as they say, we got more problems than counting.
raven
@Johnnybuck: Damn, we were only down for a couple of hours.
Immanentize
@OzarkHillbilly: I am solidly with you.
raven
@Immanentize: Fukin A
NotMax
@Immanentize
IANAL but don’t any such shenanigans need to at minimum first prove to the satisfaction of a court
1) Standing
2) Evidence of demonstrable harm (whether verified, categorically absolute or imminently clear-cut)
Johnnybuck
@raven: Ga power says Sunday at the earliest.
debbie
@Immanentize:
In all of this stopping the vote bullshit, I haven’t heard anyone bringing up the fact that military votes received after Election Day wouldn’t be counted. This surprises me.
Kathleen
@Baud: Of course. That’s what evil minions of Satan do. And I’m being serious not snarky.
OzarkHillbilly
So we finally heard from the NOLA son yesterday and they are fine. Still without power, lost their back fence but otherwise good. My DiL posted a video of the house next door going up in flames when a transformer +/ power line landed on it. My oldest says, “and there is C, running to see if they are OK. Getting run over by a truck didn’t teach him a damn thing.”
raven
@Johnnybuck: Damn, we’re just up the street from a substation and about 200 yards from a hospital so that probably helps.
Kay
EveryDayIhaveTheBlues
@OzarkHillbilly: I agree whole-heartedly. This rings true and one feels cautiously optimistic.
There are just way too few probabilistic paths for a Fascist victory. Of course, I’m constantly asking folks if they’ve voted and urging people to go to the polls, etc.
Part of the optimism is because the alternative is quite horrible and I’d not like to begin planning for the calamity until its here…
Betty Cracker
@OzarkHillbilly: Agree. We all knew the horserace bullshit and Trump’s desperate machinations would get cranked up to 11 in the final days. We’ll get through it. No choice!
raven
@OzarkHillbilly: And there is another one churning.
Mwangangi
Last 2.5 of this NOC. I voted 25 days ago. Lets get this dude up outta here already.
Nina
Three years ago today, Mark Halperin was Me Too’d out of the media.
Sometimes the good guys win.
NotMax
@debbie
They must be, by both federal* (MOVE Act, among others) and state statute. Cut-off dates for valid receipt do vary by state, though.
*Unless the Secretary of Defense, acting as defined in federal law as a designee, specifically and overtly rules otherwise in each separate instance.
Matt McIrvin
@Immanentize:
Well, that, and it’s a direct transliteration of things Donald Trump himself is now saying. Mind you, Donald Trump says a lot of things.
WereBear
Part of my own optimism is how Trump & Co act like they are going to lose, hard. Also voted yesterday!
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Baud:
Too many olds who no longer have a stake in the game vote to perpetuate a 1950s that terrorized wide swaths of people and which weren’t all that magical for those who ostensibly benefitted from the predominant social order.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: I can’t wait for the day when hurricane season is a year long.
Kay
@WereBear:
I think he’s acting like he knows he’s losing too. His rallies have turned into him working thru losing, up there on stage. I think it’s good. He’ll be less of a problem for the country if he gets it all out among his loyal cult members.
Barbara
@OzarkHillbilly: Thanks for saying that “out loud.”
Kathleen
My mantra is “It’s time for the power of the Light to vanquish Evil.” That is my focus the next few days. I’m literally sick of giving my power to these demons.
NotMax
@NotMax
To clarify, by each separate instance my understanding is that means a ruling by DoD on each individual vote brought into question, not any kind of blanket kibosh.
Again, IANAL.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: I saw that this morning, and this part made me laugh out loud:
Whose “concerns” are they talking about? They can’t possibly mean Trump or anyone connected with him. They just cut a campaign ad of a fake SCOTUS swearing-in from the fucking White House!
Again, since when does Trump give a fuck about that? And he’d have no problem stiffing his own hotel, so that’s not it either.
I think what’s happening here is that he knows there’s a good chance he’s about to suffer a humiliating defeat, and he’d rather tweet-scream about ELECTION FRAUD!!! while locked in the residence stress-eating Big Macs than have to face even his toadies. Losing is an extinction-level event for his ego, and I hope he’s terrified at the prospect..
Zzyzx
Sorry about the pessimism. I’ll try to keep my bleakness to myself going down the road. I have a friend who is pretty dialed in with the Democratic Party and he’s started posting a lot of “This is starting to slip away from us “ posts that might just be his way of fighting complacency but it’s been terrorizing me.
Matt McIrvin
@debbie: I’ve heard it brought up.
I suspect that suppressing the military vote is actually part of the plan–there have been indications that the military would at this point NOT vote for Donald Trump. They hate the guy.
raven
@Zzyzx: Breathe. . . you can’t do much about it anyway.
TS (the original)
@Zzyzx:
Here is an upbeat message from ElectoralVote to cheer you up (my bold)
John S.
@OzarkHillbilly: I’m right there with you. But in the off chance that orange fart cloud steals his way to victory, I have already made arrangements with my employer to be transferred to our office in Canada.
My wife thought I was crazy when I first mentioned it, but now she knows that I’m serious. You have to draw the line somewhere, and my Jewish instincts are tingling telling me that if there is a second Trump term, it’s time to go.
Gin & Tonic
@Betty Cracker: From people who have been on the disinfo beat for some time, the feeling is it’s too late for anything on that front. Now the worriers can worry about a disruption of some kind on the day – let’s say a car bomb goes off a block from a polling place in Pittsburgh at 10:00 am Tuesday. What does that do to PA turnout?
NotMax
@John S.
Jewdar?
“On the job 24/6.”
:)
John S.
@Kay: That’s more reassuring than any poll. That’s the behavior of a loser who knows he’s going to lose.
debbie
@Kay:
He’ll be locking himself in so we’ll have to drag his bloated carcass out the door.
John S.
@NotMax: LOL, it’s real I tell you.
And believe me, if I had a few more years, I would be moving out your way for good. My wife and I have spent a lot of time in Hawaii over the years, and had been planning to relocate there for some time.
Immanentize
@NotMax: At a minimum. Some courts seem to be a little unclear on those concepts right now. But as has been noted, the Courts have no army.
debbie
@NotMax:
Trump: “Statutes? We don’t need no stinkin’ statutes!”
NotMax
@John S.
Also maybe a sign the RSVPs were skimpy?
hueyplong
Stupid/obese Hitler is just yammering about non-existent divisions and miracle weapons as the Allies close in. We’re running him out of town on a rail, and it’s time we stopped scurrying behind the sofa when we hear a newspaper being rattled because of 2016.
Georgia could make it a great night, driving a stake through Trump’s chest cavity while assuring a blue Senate so that the government can undertake the difficult task of fixing the many things that have been broken by these miscreants.
Immanentize
@debbie: Me too! The military vote BY LAW has a grace period of delivery as long as “posted” on election day. Republicans hate the military
Bluegirlfromwyo
@Zzyzx: Does your dialed in friend say how it’s slipping away or what we should be doing about it that we’re not? If not, might be nerves. We’re all on edge lately.
OzarkHillbilly
Headline of the day: ‘He couldn’t move’: New York City man falls into sinkhole full of rats
And just in case you can’t quite visualize the full horror:
debbie
@Betty Cracker:
Yeah, this change is more about his ego than his profiting. For once.
gkoutnik
@Betty Cracker: Also – probably didn’t get a lot of RSVPs. Nobody wants to (pay to) come. In the words of the (I wish) immortal Leonard Cohen: Everybody knows.
debbie
@Immanentize:
Yet they use the military as their personal props all the time!
John S.
@NotMax: Or perhaps they simply got lost in the mail, what with the postal service being what it is these days. ?
NotMax
@Immanentize
Thanks for that. Am always chary about poking a toe into legal thickets.
debbie
@Matt McIrvin:
Okay, thanks.
Immanentize
@NotMax: Yes, but you clearly know and understand more than many who claim IAAL
TS (the original)
@Kay: From your link
I live with no hope that the NYT reporters might one day truthfully say – it is obvious why his plans have changed
Edit: or what @Betty Cracker: said above
There go two miscreants
@Zzyzx: “This is starting to slip away from us ”
That has been the tenor of almost every email I’ve received from the campaigns I contributed to. It is actually very annoying! Once in a while there will be a positive one, but mostly doom and gloom (and URGENT! doom and gloom). I find it hard to believe that these emails are helpful, but I’m probably not typical in that respect.
Zzyzx
@Bluegirlfromwyo: just generic work harder and focus on PA/FL/MN. I don’t know if he really knows anything or if he’s just one of those “fight like you’re 10 points down!” people but as much as the polls look good, it’s going to be a loooong weekend.
hueyplong
@TS (the original): And of those 5 states, in only one of them (PA) is Biden playing defense on the normal Path To 270 field.
Biden winning any one of NC, TX, FL and OH effectively writes finis to this sad era.
Matt McIrvin
@Zzyzx:
There are a lot of horse-race stories going around now about the race tightening. But if you look at the actual numbers, it’s this minuscule tightening off a big lead, and some of it seems to be driven by partisan Republican polls that are trying to game polling averages. They’re all thinking about 2016, but the corresponding situation in 2016 was the first week of November after the Comey letter–nothing like that is happening now.
And about half of the stories aren’t even really about the race tightening, they’re about the party breakdown of the early vote–OF COURSE there would be more registered Republicans voting now than there were earlier; the early mail-in vote was so lopsidedly Democratic, there’s no statistical way it could be otherwise. Most Republicans are going to vote sometime.
I’m worried about a lot of things, which I’m actively trying not to talk about here because it bothers people. But Trump winning fair and square is pretty low on the list.
Jeffro
Did y’all catch trumpov’s full-scale panic attack 3am tweet? Holeeeeeee shit!
The orange clown is melting down (hey that rhymes!) BIGTIME!!
We are coming for you, Donnie. It’s allllll going to come out: the child separations, your skimming, your tax fraud ALL of it.
OzarkHillbilly
@There go two miscreants: I never read those emails, just send them to trash.
Zzyzx
@Jeffro: what did it say?
Puddinhead
@Zzyzx: just one state or the whole shebang? I am concerned about Election Day turnout in key states including FL. Don’t want anyone to think that the early voting push means it’s in the bag. That was only step 1. Need follow-through on Nov. 3rd.
Princess
Don’t get me wrong. The child reunification plan is the right thing to do solely on its merits. But it’s also smart politics. It’s an issue that truly moves what they’re calling suburban women this go-around. Being reminded of it could cause some of those GOP women to leave the top line blank. My guess is it can also motivate Hispanic voters but that’s not my block so i won’t speak for them.
OzarkHillbilly
@Matt McIrvin: Polls always tighten in the last few days. It’s a function of “undecideds” becoming honest with themselves and admitting they are going to vote as they always have in the past. Fact is tho, there just aren’t that many undecideds this year.
Chief Oshkosh
@Matt McIrvin:
Though it makes sense, and I’d love it if true, is there any such thing as polling of military members? Are there other data? At a guess, my family, friends, or acquaintances who are in the military, vets, or in the MIC are breaking even.
John S.
@Matt McIrvin: To be honest, I truly cannot fathom the cultish following and level of support Trump has given ample empirical evidence of what a colossal fuckup he is.
I read this earlier in USA Today, and just had to shake my head:
I mean, to be sitting at your own sister’s funeral after she died from COVID… the mind just feels.
TS (the original)
@hueyplong:
I would like it to be Texas – how glorious would that be – or if not Texas, Ohio. I want to see Karl Rove relive Ohio 2012.
Jeffro
@Zzyzx: “If Sleepy Joe Biden is actually elected President, the 4 Justices (plus 1) that helped make such a ridiculous win possible would be relegated to sitting on not only a heavily PACKED COURT but probably a REVOLVING COURT as well. At least the many new Justices will be Radical Left!”
I think we can all translate that, can’t we?
Zzyzx
I think part of my frustration is living in Seattle. It would be a 20+ hour drive just to get to a swing state. If I could feel like my vote or getting my friends out or offering rides to the polls would help, that would be something but I’m in a deep blue state with nothing but similar ones to the south and deep red ones to the east.
raven
@Matt McIrvin: I’ll believe that when I see it just like I’ll believe we’re going to win Georgia.
There go two miscreants
@OzarkHillbilly: I don’t read most of them either. This was a somewhat masochistic experiment to see if there would be useful info. Next go-round I’ll just unsubscribe from them after contributing.
hueyplong
@TS (the original): I absolutely want it to be Texas. A blue Texas changes the game more than Yertle’s antics ever could.
Jeffro
@OzarkHillbilly: I have been kidding with my co-workers that they don’t need to worry too much about the undecideds breaking for trumpov this time around…after all, there’s only three of them.
”but…but what if ALL THREE go for trumpov, Jeffro, what THEN?”
sigh…
they’re just so wound up!
Soprano2
I’ve actually been feeling cautiously optimistic about the election. All this early voting means those votes are already banked, and most likely won’t even be challenged. The one thing I’m worried about was mentioned in that Atlantic article – Trump’s people trying to challenge all of the mail-in absentee ballots in certain states, slowing the process to a crawl, or even trying to get all the votes that arrive after Election Day thrown out. I do wonder, though, will they be able to challenge them in just certain counties? What people never think about are all the down ballot races that are also affected by doing something like that. Those people could say they would be damaged, and might persuade the court to rule in their favor. I know, not likely, but still……
My biggest heartburn right now is at work, where it’s week 4 of a program I use for a big part of my job not functioning, and no one in our IT department seems to be able to figure out how to fix it! My co-worker and & are certain it’s a network/permissions problem, but we don’t even know if they’ve put a network person on the problem yet! I’m about an inch from picking up the phone and just yelling at the head of the IT department; I hate being “that person”. I know yelling at her won’t help, but it sure would make me feel better. When they send out e-mails they ask us to evaluate their “excellent” customer service. I’m so tempted to do just that…..
Kay
@TS (the original):
I think he’s a coward who will run and hide in Mar A Lago if he loses, so his cancelling his party fits with my theory.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@OzarkHillbilly: Jeebus. I saw that yesterday and was haunted enough already without seeing it again, thank you very much.
John S.
@Jeffro: If the SCOTUS doesn’t find a way to hand me a victory after all I’ve done for them, they get what they deserve!!! ?
Citizen Scientist
@gkoutnik: Did you tell him that this is a top-10,000 blog, or whatever the tagline says?
Matt McIrvin
@Chief Oshkosh: There was a survey in, I think, Stars and Stripes that showed an astonishing lean toward Biden–and their sample was whiter than the military as a whole.
It was probably not a very scientific poll. Of course, the military leans right historically. I suspect they are at the very least not leaning as right as they usually do.
Kirk Spencer
@Zzyzx: if I may, I’d suggest that a calming playlist is a mistake. It clears the mind but does little to reorient.
Pick the active mindset you want, then make a playlist aimed that way. Me, I tend to open with “Can you hear the people sing” and run from there. Marching through Georgia always comes up, as do Lavatos Warrior and Aguilera’s Fighter.
Just a thought.
Kay
@TS (the original):
Ohio is one of the reasons I think the polling in PA, WI and MI is good. Ohio being even fits with those states being where they are.
OzarkHillbilly
Tourist blames 6-year-old son for how her gun got stashed outside Magic Kingdom
rp
@Jeffro: Are they moving the Court to the Space Needle?
germy
If someone loses their job (and insurance) in February or March, can they enroll? Or do they need to wait until Nov.?
Kay
@Jeffro:
I was so glad to see that- he thinks he’s going to lose.
Geminid
Montana State U.-Billings released a poll taken Oct. 19-25. It showed Steve Bullock up 48-47, 5% undecided. Democratic congressional candidate Williams was down 47-46, 6% undecided. Independents favored the Democratic candidates by a 15-18% margin. trump was up over Biden by only 7 points, 52-45%.
TS (the original)
@Zzyzx: Your vote will add to the utter humiliation of trump losing the popular vote by millions more than has been seen in a very long time. And blue states are only reliably blue because people who live there go out and vote.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Jeffro: Holy cow. It took me a minute to realize that’s a quote from Trump. This man is cray.
Citizen Scientist
Good morning everyone. Like some here have expressed, my election-related anxiety is starting to go back up. I’m an optimist at heart, but am just waiting for ballot shenanigans from the Repubs here in PA. Luckily, I have the early voting statistics to help increase that feeling. The percentage of D returned ballots has been more or less steadily going up the last several days, but as of yesterday we’re only at ~73% returned. Keeping my fingers crossed that we get to at least 90% today.
Have a great day all. Love to those in wildfire and hurricane impacted areas of the country.
OzarkHillbilly
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I live to serve. ;-)
Matt McIrvin
@OzarkHillbilly: They don’t always tighten! Events can intervene. Obama’s lead blew out bigger right at the end in 2012, for instance. He’d have been in serious trouble if it didn’t.
2016 was a situation where there was a huge number of “undecideds” who I suspect were leaning Trump but really disliked both candidates on a personal level, but the Comey letter (and Trump staying mostly off Twitter for the last week) gave them the final excuse they needed to jump. That reservoir of undecideds isn’t there this year.
Citizen Scientist
@Kay: Kay, thanks for this perspective. I do think Joe and Kamala will win PA, it’s just getting there is a little nerve wracking. The waiting is the hardest part like Mr. Petty said.
Patricia Kayden
Matt McIrvin
(Incidentally, anyone comparing timelines to 2016 should be reminded that Election Day was 5 days later that year, so the day corresponding to today wasn’t October 30, it was November 4. The October Surprise drama stretched well into November.)
Kay
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I love how he continues to announce to the country that his judges are corrupt. No one else has to criticize these judges- Trump tells us every day that he’s ordering them to steal an election, and, well, he picked em. He knows them better than we do.
“Corrupt judges! Attention please! Do my bidding!” He discredits them himself.
Kay
@Citizen Scientist:
I agree. I also get insanely angry at screwing with voting rules and ballots just because it’s wrong.
But I still think he’s going to win.
Steeplejack
@Kay:
Trump on election night.
Patricia Kayden
@Johnnybuck: I think I’d die of joy if either Georgia or Texas turned blue. We’ll get there eventually though.
tarragon
A Green, nutjob[1], acquaintance of mine posted his “10 reasons to vote for Howie”. Including, “Democrats just lost a supreme court seat without even fighting for it.”
I just about exploded. I’m not usually a violent person but he’s lucky we aren’t doing in person events anytime soon.
I’m so stressed right now.
[1] But I repeat myself
Kay
@Steeplejack:
I’m surprised he cancelled the party. It would be much more like him to just leave them standing in his stupid hotel “ballroom” for hours.
JPL
@Johnnybuck: what county are you in. I’m sitting in a publix using their WiFi. Sunday pm for me
Geminid
@Geminid: The Montana Democrat running for the at-large congressional seat is three term state legislator Kathleen Williams. She ran in 2018, lost to Greg Gianforte by 5 points.
zhena gogolia
@Kay:
Or outside it where they could get hypothermia.
frosty
@Zzyzx: You’re not the only one feeling bleak here. I’m happy to see that several of our fellow jackals are helping to talk you back. I saw a good clip of the head of the Biden/Harris legal team shooting down a lot of our worries.
So other than lit drops, I think I’ll call Gov Wolf today and leave a message that we need to count all the votes. And tell him I approve of going all Andy Jackson: “John Roberts has made his decision. Now let him enforce it.”
germy
@tarragon:
This cartoon is an example:
thenib.com/nothing-up-our-sleeves/
“Do something!” They could have done something if they’d had the numbers. If people voted for Democrats instead of staying home or picking flaky third party people.
satby
@Soprano2: Do it, don’t yell but say this is unacceptable and you need updates from not only the regular problem resolution team, but the network team as well or you’ll escalate it up the chain to the top if you need to, starting today.
Kay
My husband had outpatient surgery yesterday- he plays a lot of tennis and he tore his shoulder cuff. So the doc comes in to talk to me after and shows me photos, none of which I can decipher but he mentions “my PA said.. ” several times and then he leaves. About 20 minutes later a younger man in scrubs comes in and starts showing me more photos of a surgery so I think “he’s the PA? This is a little redundant”.
On the way home the outpatient surgery clinic calls me- the 2nd person was a surgeon and he was talking about a completely different patient. He went to the wrong “loved ones room”. So I have these photos of someone elses surgery, which I will send back to the hospital
lowtechcyclist
Hell yes. I’m a government statistician, so this is way out of my area and I’m sure there’d be no role for my particular skill set on such a task force. But if there were, I’d be there in a fucking heartbeat.
Kay
@zhena gogolia:
The wait staff start clearing the buffet and the bar closes :)
“Is he…coming?”
Matt McIrvin
@Kay:
To the Republican mind that’s how it’s supposed to work. The highest value is “strength”. Being able to order judges around is an indication of how strong you are. As I said before, “discrediting them” just translates to “making liberals cry”. It’s pure id.
tarragon
Fer fucks sake.
H.E.Wolf
Dude. This is the 3rd decade of the 21st century, in an election where textbanking and phonebanking are needed.
Like many of us, you live in a state that has an exciting US Congressional campaign in a purple district (in your case, it’s WA-03).
If you want to work as well as worry during the next few days, here’s one option: https://www.wa-democrats.org
Tell ’em H. Wolf sent you. :)
[ETA to say I totally sympathize with the worry.]
WaterGirl
@gkoutnik: I love that story, thank you.
DougJ put up that link up after Kattails posted a comment about 4 groups that were working together to set up a shuttle service to get Navajo voters to the polls, many of whom live 50 miles from a polling station; they hope to mobilize 38,000 voters.
There was no ActBlue activity for the 4 groups, but one of those groups was Four Directions, which MazeDancer has also talked about in the past, and they did have an ActBlue presence, and it turns out we already had a BJ thermometer for them from some previous effort.
Four Directions
NotMax
@Kay
Make copies and send them to Tucker Carlson. C.O.D.
:)
OzarkHillbilly
@Kay: HA! Maybe they need to put the patients name and birthdate on your forehead in permanent marker too.
lowtechcyclist
If the 2016 election had been held on November 3 instead of November 8, Clinton would have won. But her support kept dropping during those last several days, and it took all of that time to get MI, PA, and WI to the point where she could narrowly lose them.
zhena gogolia
@OzarkHillbilly:
This reminds me of waiting in a bed for a colonoscopy (after answering all the usual questions multiple times), and a brisk lady comes in and starts wheeling me off, saying, “Going for a colon resection . . .” and I screamed.
germy
bemused
@Kay:
The hotel should be renamed Covid Come & Get It.
Baud
@germy:
It’s been known to happen.
germy
@zhena gogolia:
What a nightmare.
germy
@Baud: I was thinking the same thing.
WaterGirl
@OzarkHillbilly: You must be a proud papa.
geg6
@Zzyzx:
Have you been hanging around with Goku?
I can’t with the doom porn. I am not going to submit to it. I am going out there and doing something to try to make good things happen. Just donated to Joe for the last time and making plans with the local Dems to man a polling place with sample ballots and literature on Tuesday. Find something to do with your nervous energy other than gaming disaster scenarios for the next four days.
germy
He’s fighting with Chris Hayes now.
geg6
@gkoutnik:
That’s wonderful. Be nice if some Native Americans became jackals because of that. We could use their perspective.
frosty
@Kay: Sheesh. The surgeon cut on the correct shoulder, right? I understand they use Sharpies for that now.
chrome agnomen
@sanjeevs:
‘…Tucker 2024 to lose momentum…”
hey, when one door closes, another one opens. donnie jr 2024!!! now excuse me while i go and vomit.
call_me_ishmael
@Zzyzx: I wouldn’t say it was in the bag or anything like that but I don’t see Trump adding any new voters to his aging 2016 cohort. The Dem’s clearly have a different mindset than they did, witness the insane participation levels in early voting.
Also, these kids are voting this time, and I find them pretty inspirational.
If you worked for the party, it would be a tough messaging straddle to keep ppl from becoming complacent (ie”its gonna be close, make sure you vote”) without being demotivating (“we’re in danger of losing, make sure you vote”). The horserace press is gonna horserace every 30 minutes too, because that’s what they know how to do.
If we step back and look at the big picture though, Dems are super motivated and swing Repub’s are ashamed and leaking oil. It is beyond the courts ability to change that and all of the vote stifling shenanigans get the Dems more motivated, I reckon. The only persuadable voters left are those in a very low info bubble and Biden’s got a mountain of money to burn on TV this week while Trump’s out of cash and cancelling his victory party.
Kay
@OzarkHillbilly:
I told my husband to look at the bright side. His surgeon found the right room. A+
I haven’t told him he can’t ski this winter yet, but he can’t. It takes 6 months to heal completely.
Matt McIrvin
There’s this rhetorical move they keep using on 538 that I really dislike: they say “the race isn’t really tightening, except that there’s some in Pennsylvania, and we’re watching that closely because according to our model, it’s the state most likely to decide the Electoral College.”
But that’s misleading: it implies that as goes Pennsylvania, so goes the Electoral College. But if Pennsylvania flips R and the other states don’t, all that means is that Pennsylvania isn’t the one that flips it to Biden; it’s some other state instead.
Now, they’ve got these correlations built into their model that imply that if PA goes to Trump, a bunch of other states might too. But if those correlations are real, they go the other way too, right? Wouldn’t the widening Biden lead in, say, Wisconsin be evidence that PA is less likely to flip? I don’t know, seems like they’re trying to generate drama out of nothing.
WaterGirl
@Zzyzx: For what it’s worth, I don’t think you have anything to apologize for. You shared your concerns, hopefully you are feeling less bleak, and all of us got to hear some things we needed to hear in order to help keep our anxiety at a manageable level.
It’s not like you are bringing that to every thread, every day. Or if you are doing that, I have missed it, and you should stop doing that! :-)
Kay
@frosty:
Well, his surgeon was correct. The 2nd surgeon made the error. And they do mark with a sharpie. My youngest was born with a bad eye and he had it corrected at a children’s hospital and I was impressed with the process. Every single RN or doc who entered his room checked that it was the correct eye. Over and over and over. Because that’s a catastrophe, right? They screw up the one good eye and leave him with the bad.
MrSnrub
@Zzyzx: He’s certainly going to try.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I agree but I’m ok with it because the fact is Biden has a wealth of possibilities and Trump has almost none, and it’s been that way for months.
Johnnybuck
@JPL: Douglas county, and I live in town.
germy
schrodingers_cat
I voted yesterday. Have you voted already or are waiting to vote on the election day? Take my poll
I am trying to figure out how the politically engaged are voting this year.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Kay: That doesn’t sound like someone who expect to win.
SiubhanDuinne
@raven: And I wasn’t down at all!
OzarkHillbilly
And that has happened. I read of a guy who went in to have his leg amputated and they took the wrong one.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
Anyone have any thoughts on surviving Election Day? I don’t expect any reporting of results, even of early votes, till polls close. But I don’t expect to be able to focus on anything all day.
So I have no idea how I’m going to distract myself and not go crazy with worry.
RobertB
@OzarkHillbilly: Not that it’s foolproof, but the local hospital that I usually use will ask several times to explain what you’re in there for, to the point of annoyance. I guess I’d rather be annoyed than short one good leg.
raven
@SiubhanDuinne: It’s weird stuff, we didn’t lose power until 10:30 and the worst was gone.
Gin & Tonic
@OzarkHillbilly: Went I had my arm done, they were very careful to mark which one. Yet it was the one with the huge fucking cast on it. They still had to mark it.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Zzyzx: I will repeat this again, if Trump was that smart he could pull of win like that, he would have simply done his job in April and be a shoe for re-election right now.
And stop with the stupid media narratives dude; it’s all ready been show 2016 was a vote against Hillary, not some vote for Orange Dumbass. Trump lucked out in so many stupid ways; sucky opponents just phoning it in, peak boomer, a media filled with his buddies, the opioid epidemic with all those stoners looking for voice.
germy
@Gin & Tonic:
Better safe than sorry, as the old folks used to say
thruppence
Well, our Biden / Harris yard sign disappeared overnight, but they left our Any Functioning Adult 2020 sign. Also, our next door neighbors’ Trump / Pence sign is gone. Radical anti-partisans? Competing bands of jerks?
geg6
@Patricia Kayden:
I feel the same way. I cannot even begin to imagine joy if either (or, please!, both) turn blue. Not counting on it but damn, it would be good.
Zzyzx
@WaterGirl: thanks. It’s really hard to figure out right now what is election stress, what is winter depression, and what is that I haven’t seen a friend in 8 months and since my wife works a swing shift I spend 95% of my time alone with the cats.
bemused
I’m beside myself, so anxious for trump booted out but I just don’t know if that will happen and how I will cope with that possibility. A friend said if not for the pandemic debacle trump made, he might have won handily and not in the bag yet. It’s all so horrifying. I have a general doc appointment the day b4 election and didn’t think I’d ever ask for some kind of med to calm me down in the last four years but now I will.
Just One More Canuck
@Zzyzx: 270towin.com runs 25,000 simulations each day based on data from one of their partners as well as other forecasters. Yesterday’s run showed Biden winning 86% of the time, and there’s more chance of getting more than 400 electoral votes than Trump winning at all. The median votes for Biden is 349. You can also run your own simulations which I have been doing to give myself some peace of mind. It gives you a breakdown of who wins each state, so you can see that there is a non-zero chance of Biden winning Mississippi, Kansas and Utah (!), and a surprisingly good chance at Texas, Georgia and even Alaska.
germy
OzarkHillbilly
@RobertB: @Gin & Tonic: And repeatedly asking for my name and birthdate.
Isua
Just threw in for Four Directions. My first political contribution this season, after joining the gig economy (yaaaaaaaaay), but it seemed like a way to do something in these last days.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@OzarkHillbilly:And I haven’t even mentioned Texas which just might have a blue House next year.
Speaking of Texas, someone at the Orange Websight that shall not be named that during the blue wave in 2018 the Dems took control of Travis county and upped the election budget from 4 million to 32 million which why all the early voting and the strong Democrat vote so far. Sort of makes one wonder were else has team blue reformed their county’s voting process and brought it out of the stone age.
schrodingers_cat
@bemused: This narrative is BS, that the Orange Clown would have won had the pandemic not happened. Rs lost big in 2018 that was before the pandemic. He has never broken 45% approval let alone 50%.
What he is good at is gaslighting and manipulating the media. Don’t fall for those tactics. He is a troll who was installed into Presidency by the Russians, racists and Republicans. He is deeply unpopular and has been since he was elected.
schrodingers_cat
@Zzyzx: Follow Terry Kanefield on Twitter she takes on all this doom porn and counters it with facts and reason.
TS (the original)
@Matt McIrvin:
You’ve discovered the plan of every political pundit.
Baud
@bemused:
A lie. Trump has always been behind in be polls. He might have had a better chance of winning but he would not have won handily.
frosty
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I’m signed up for poll watching, which will kill the afternoon and evening, at the least. I haven’t heard back about where I’m supposed to be, though.
It will give me something to do and focus on, and limit the time available to obsessively check B-J and other news.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud: Yes, were do they get this BS? that primary was packed full of Democrats who were just slobbering over themselves to get a chance at Trump because they smelled weakness.
Ken
Would you please name it? I find that I am not, in fact, aware of all Internet traditions.
schrodingers_cat
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: My question is why do our voters repeat it?
schrodingers_cat
@Ken: Daily Kos
Ken
Redundant.
geg6
@Ken:
Daily Kos, or more fondly, the Great Orange Satan.
germy
This story about the toddler who was used as a public relations tool by police :
washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/30/philadelphia-fop-posts-toddler/
The policewoman who held the child didn’t even wear a mask. Police falsely claimed they found the toddler “wandering barefoot” in the streets, as if Black parents would simply abandon an infant in order to protest.
(The police removed it from their social media after complaints from the family’s lawyer)
schrodingers_cat
@Ken: I like to be complete. While there is a huge overlap between the three it is not 100%.
Chyron HR
@bemused:
So if Trump wasn’t such a terrible president he wouldn’t be so far behind in the polls? I find your friend’s ideas intriguing and wish to subscribe to their newsletter.
Ken
@schrodingers_cat: @geg6: Thank you. Don’t believe I’ve ever wandered over there, sounds like it’s not recommended?
Say, is there an equivalent of Yelp for rating blogs and websites? “Four and one-half stars. Brilliant front-pagers and engaging comments section, had to take off a half star for not quite living up to its claim to be a full-service blog.”
schrodingers_cat
If you are anxious, phone bank or text bank, do something to turn out the vote. Action is the antidote to anxiety not doom posting.
Booger
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: My wife and I are going to press some cider, then maybe clear the leaves from the ditch along the road in case it needs snowplowing this winter.
KenK
@Kay: @#42. So, Trump pockets the donations??!! Heh.
MattF
It’s a detail at this point, but I’ve just checked with the MD BOE, and my ballot status is ACCEPTED, which, according to the website, means counted. YAY.
germy
The Moar You Know
@Matt McIrvin: between Hollywood, news media, punditry, social media, the entire “security” industry, advertising, etc, I will bet that “creating drama out of nothing” is responsible for over a third of our GDP
germy
Barbara
@Zzyzx: I actually resent the level of hysteria in many of the emails I receive from points far and wide, whether from specific candidates or on behalf of various official Democratic party organizations. First, I don’t know how much of the information is real, and how much just trying to stoke fear to counter complacency, and I can see how countering any sense of complacency would be especially important in Pennsylvania. But I get emails like this in Virginia as well and it drives me a little nuts. Everyone’s anxiety level is high, and the volume and tenor of these emails is starting to be counterproductive for people like me, and probably you as well. But we are probably following things more closely than the average person. So do yourself a favor and delete or block these emails once you have given the amount of money or time that you have set aside for that purpose.
Kay
@KenK:
Guffaw. One of the things I’m looking forward to after he loses is the campaign finance review of his campaign. Good God, the grifting and skimming will be epic.
People sent the Trump Family a billion dollars – in cash! Okay, after the skimming by the low quality hires that’s at least half a billion for them to pocket.
Amir Khalid
@germy:
I suppose we can all look forward to dear Glenn commenting here again.
debbie
It’s somewhat enjoyable listening to Bill O’Reilly detailing how he’s sure Biden will lose. The proof is in all the rallies Biden’s scheduled.
ETA: His “proof” is that Michelle Obama isn’t out stumping for Biden.
bemused
@schrodingers_cat:
Yes, I know this mentally but emotionally a wreck.
2 judges ruled MN absentee ballots have to be in by 8pm, Nov 3.
Trump rally in Rochester, MN today, home of Mayo Clinic. Rochester didn’t want him there at all but his campaign agreed to 250 person limit at airport. No news on other MN guidelines. I have my doubts he and staff will actually obey that attendance cap.
germy
@bemused: But don’t polls close at 9?
SiubhanDuinne
@Kay:
Another Trump hire.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Kay: That’s going into my story idea notebook
bemused
@Chyron HR:
Ha, when you live in rural/small town NE Minnesota among trumpers, it’s hard not to be affected by magas’ unhinged behavior.
danielx
@Matt McIrvin:
Obligatory: “but the laptop…”
But I worry. It doesn’t matter how big Biden’s margin of victory is (fingers crossed, FSM willing and all that). Trump is going to claim he was cheated, robbed, swindled. I don’t know whether it’s to try to win via means other than counted votes or whether he really believes it’s impossible for him to lose. It doesn’t matter which, since his stance is that if you aren’t cheating you aren’t trying hard enough – and he believes everyone thinks that way, and if they don’t they are weak and foolish. All that matters to him is winning, by whatever mean necessary. Unfortunately, he’s convinced a lot of his followers also that the only way he can lose is because of voter fraud, and they own a shit ton of firearms.
Which truly annoys me – not the firearms so much as the fact that they believe him no matter what evidence to the contrary they see and hear. He’s a lying sonofabitch, proven many times over, and they would believe him if he said the laws of physics have been repealed. If he tells them to go out in the streets with rifles they’ll do it, hell, they’ve done it already.
So yeah, I worry about blood in the streets, because Dems are not going to take another court-mandated or Electoral College loss lying down.
Another Scott
@Zzyzx: Donnie barely won in 2016 because of Comey and all the rest. Democrats picked up seats (just about) everywhere else (House, Senate, state houses).
Since January 2017, Democrats have averaged ~ 10+ points higher results than 2016.
It’s not going to be easy, but Democrats are still fired up and turning out and voting. We can’t be complacent (the GOP picked up local seats in a small town in VA over the summer), but if people turn out we will win on 11/3. So far, turnout looks very high…
Hang in there.
Cheers,
Scott.
bemused
@germy:
Polling places in my area usually have been closed at 8pm although not all polling places.
Kathleen
@frosty: Jennifer Rubin wrote an informative column on that very topic this week. Would link but on my phone.
Jeffro
@John S.: that’s a good translation!
columbusqueen
@TS (the original): Especially since that fat prick Karl is here trying to swing the state Supreme Court races in a big way. Am hoping Jennifer Brunner wins & kicks Karl in the nutsack.
Matt McIrvin
@danielx: I’ve heard “the laptop” described as a cargo-cult reenactment of But Her Emails. They’ve got the outward forms but the underlying mechanism isn’t there.
Patricia Kayden
Jeffro
@rp: nope, LOL
I think he’s talking about how the Dems might find a way to institute 18-year terms for SCOTUS justices: rotate on for 18 years, rotate back out to the federal courts.
All that malicious, murderous enabling by the GOP and they’re going to be back at square one within a year, easy. Sad!
Jeffro
@Dorothy A. Winsor: and at 3am, too!
He should be completely out of his gourd by Tuesday if he’s not sleeping at all. It’s the least he deserves.
On a side note: once trumpov realizes that the GOP’s not going to be able to intervene in Nov/Dec to save him…he should be absolutely. off. the. hook. Just wait and see the things he says about GOP senators, SCOTUS justices, and his own voters.
Ken
Versus the huge number of former First Ladies endorsing Trump. Former Presidents, for that matter – and secretaries of defense, state, treasury, commerce, ….
Jeffro
@Steeplejack: plus cheeseburgers but yeah! =)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Betty Cracker: The LA Times took a look at young (18-29) voters in several states the other day (thread)
the comparisons are to 2016, I’d be curious, to see the numbers compared to 2018, especially in Georgia.
Another Demo that’s breaking turn-out records in important states: African American voters over 65
Jeffro
I am completely, now and forever, stealing and using that.
MattF
@Matt McIrvin: 538 is pretty much in full-clickbait mode. The graphs are somewhat informative, the algorithms are ‘way too complex, IMO. My opinion is that there’s a point at which increasing the amount of correction of current data with past trends alters the question you are asking— you start ‘predicting the past’, which is easier than describing the present but not what you want.
Mousebumples
At work so I cant check to see if someone else already posted this, but I thought this was a great video/ad –
And I have literal tears pouring down my face now. Only a few more days. We can do this.
There go two miscreants
@Ken: Not to mention her absolutely scorching speech to the Democratic convention.
germy
I really like this ad:
(Nice little detail when she squirts more sanitizer into her hands after handling the resumé)
geg6
@Ken:
DK is not so bad. It was nuts in 2016 when, for some reason, Bernie Bros seemed to have taken over everything but staffer posts, but it’s gotten sane again. I tend to stay away from most posts from the community (and never, ever venture into comments), but the stuff from the staffers tends to be pretty good. Check it out. I mostly read their morning pundit roundups.
bemused
@Jeffro:
I love that too!
Bluegirlfromwyo
@debbie: All the rallies from his basement? That’s where the rest of the right says he is.
Baud
@geg6: Even if they’re good, they won’t stay good. I left there for NJ in 2010 because the proto-Bros were shitting all over Obama’s first two years. I’d be surprised if the first two years of Biden’s term will be any better.
evodevo
@Kay: Yes. This. and tell him to pay strict attention to the physical therapy and do the home exercises they will give him…makes the difference between a success and a shoulder that is still messed up a couple years later…
Baud
@Baud:
NJ = BJ
Matt McIrvin
@MattF: The whole appeal of the “data-driven” approach was supposed to be that it was the antidote to old-fashioned punditry about bellwethers and such. But everything eventually seems to turn into the thing it was trying to supplant
(Semi-related, I was just comparing electoral-vote.com’s news blog 4 days out from the 2016 election to today. Back then, Hillary seemed to be well ahead on the electoral map but her support was palpably softening across the country, and e-v.com was adamantly denying that there would be a wave of shy Trump voters. This year, Biden’s map seems much more solid but they’re fretting about signs of tightening.)
Another Scott
@NotMax: No doubt. Signups have been on the low side since they kicked Parscale out. He got millions to sign up for that thing in Tulsa, didn’t he??? He had a knack that Donnie’s campaign could use right now…
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
People want drama, not statistics.
Jeffro
@Mousebumples:
@germy:
Those are awesome ads!
geg6
@Baud:
Yeah, you’re probably right. I’ll still always check out the morning pundit roundups, though. I almost always end up clicking on a link there to something I would not have read otherwise.
germy
@Jeffro:
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: heh, you remind me of the final podcast of Dan Pfeiffer and Jon Favreau in 2016, when they were still on the Ringer platform, Keeping It 1600. Pretty sure it was Pfeiffer who gave a long speech about how political junkies want elections to be a great novel, when it’s boring old math. Listen to the quants, he said (remember all the talk of “quants”?). I did. Then we lived out an election co-written by Lovecraft and Cormac McCarthy.
Barbara
@geg6: Agree re DK. I might venture back, but the willingness to sabotage and self-sabotage was so high in 2016 that I abandoned it altogether. I used to follow it on election nights, but I found better ways to follow along without having to read the navel gazing negative comments.
Another Scott
@Chief Oshkosh: GovExec has numbers on donations by federal employees:
Understanding that most people (federal employees or not) do not donate to candidates, Defense donors (on average) like Donnie, but on the whole Democrats continue to do much better with the federal donors.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Scrolling through the thread, I haven’t seen this particular set of goat entrails posted. Divine away!
Uncle Cosmo
As we say in the old country, Wee-wee, mon sewer!
Back in the BOGOD** the prime reason for visitors to central & eastern Europe to know the location of the nearest McDonalds was as a reliable source of clean and free toilet facilities when out & about.***
The experience of those public Your-In-Alls – fishing in one’s pocket for unfamiliar change to put on the attendant’s plate while hopping from one foot to the other, then whizzing away while said attendant (usually older female) was mopping between one’s feet … let’s just say it was an experience typical of the time & place worth remembering (as I do now after ~30 years).
** The Bad Old Good Old Days, roughly 1985-95, just prior to & after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact
** The other good reason was to be reminded of the local language’s version of “thank you” printed on the depository flap of the trash receptables.
sdhays
@Betty Cracker: Or is it simply that the campaign doesn’t have the money to pay Dump Hotel, and he’s not going to stiff himself? Better to have a cheaper event at home at taxpayers expense (at least partially) than having to eat the costs of his loser party.
MisterForkbeard
@germy: My feelings on this will depend entirely on how well we do in the Senate. :)
If we get a wave and have 53-54 senators, I’m a lot less concerned about this and I think she’d do a fantastic job. If we’re at 50 or 51 senators then it gets a lot more dicey.
Full Metal Wingnut
@Matt McIrvin:
Very McClellan. Who was a DEMOCRAT! Both sides!
Another Scott
@thruppence: There’s a fox in Arlington VA that steals morning copies of the WaPo. Maybe varmints??
Cheers,
Scott.
montanareddog
@Another Scott: I am sure it is just a fox that fucking loathes Thiessen and Hewitt
Croaker
Jeffro
@Another Scott: They all do it…we had one in our old neighborhood in Fairfax that would do it, and it would taunt the dogs too(!)
J R in WV
@Chief Oshkosh:
There is polling of military, by the press which specializes in covering the military “family” like Military Times, etc. It shows that more members of the military family than you might suspect have learned not to trust Trump as far as a big strong SEAL can drop him from a flying vehicle.
James E Powell
@germy:
I always cracks me up that people talk about Democratic policy ideas like they haven’t been around for a hundred years, like they have been applied in other places and found to work much better than right-wing ideas.
And another thing, the only real Marxists in America are academics for whom Marxism is less about the life of working class people and more about analyzing Jane Austen novels.
J R in WV
@Ken:
Daily Kos, once a beloved progressive Democratic blog, which went to hell somehow. That’s when I found this place!
Uncle Cosmo
You think not? Guys like Dad would have disagreed vehemently. He graduated from HS in the teeth of the Depression, made do as best he could during the 30s, went off to war & was lucky enough to come home in one piece…& was grateful to the end of his days to work a semiskilled job (for which he was overeducated) & earn enough to buy a house, buy a brand-new car every few years, vacation with family every summer, send his sons to college, and retire comfortably. And he passed away at age 85 a happy man.
It’s true enough that all that depended upon (among other things) the rest of the industrialized world busy digging itself out of the ruins, a corporate US scared spitless of the return of the Depression, and a strong but restrained union culture. And it’s true enough that the benefits weren’t shared equally with minorities and women.** But their Earthly Paradise from the glorious days-gone-by is & always was the white not-well-educated male’s version.
** It can be argued that the Civil RIghts movement’s successes in that period were critically dependent on the economic boom: Harder to deny people wanting more of the pie when it comes out of a pie is getting bigger by the day. Compare that with the viciousness of the current zero-sum shitpile after the owners skim off all the productivity increases.
JAFD
Re Pennsylvania: Please remember that in last year’s election the county governments in Delaware and Chester Counties – Philadelphia suburbs, had been GOP or Whig since the Year One – switched t o Democratic. The Keystone State, I am not worried about
JAFD
@Uncle Cosmo: Note that I’m 70, which means I was 10 years old when the ’50’s ended. I had a reasonably happy childhood (if I had kept my toy closet intact till now, could probably sell contents for several thousand).
But those who remember the Eisenhower years as adults are few these days (and you should think about recording them for history)
JAFD
@Uncle Cosmo: This is, actually, serious. Have been on ‘water pills’ since my heart attack. Feel sometimes I oughta be classed with the ‘mobility-restricted’, with public bathrooms made scarce.
Let me know when they make app like that for NYC and northern NJ, please.
dnfree
@gkoutnik: As Leonard Cohen once memorably sang, “Democracy is coming to the USA.”