you may think the midterms will be good for republican politicians but one group that doesn't agree with you is republican politicians https://t.co/j6z3QamOtQ
— Peloton InfoSec Analyst (Incident Response) (@CalmSporting) March 8, 2021
Poltico, “Sen. Roy Blunt won’t run for reelection in latest blow to GOP”:
Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri announced on Monday that he will not run for reelection in 2022, a surprise decision from the No. 4 GOP leader that comes amid a slew of retirements from top Senate Republicans.
Blunt, who was first elected to the Senate in 2010 and previously served for 14 years in the House, is the fifth Republican this cycle to announce his retirement. His decision is certain to set off a messy GOP primary in a state where former President Donald Trump remains popular.
Blunt, 71, has been a mainstay in Washington politics and the Republican establishment for more than two decades. First elected to the House in the 1996 GOP wave, Blunt served as House Republican whip before jumping to the Senate.
In announcing his retirement, Blunt joins GOP Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Richard Shelby of Alabama and Richard Burr of North Carolina, all of whom opted against seeking reelection in 2022. Sens. Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin have yet to reveal their plans.
Blunt voted to acquit Trump in the former president’s most recent impeachment trial in the Senate but occasionally broke with the former president throughout his term. Blunt’s decision, combined with the other four senators not seeking reelection, could suggest a level of discomfort with the direction of the party, especially with Trump looming over the GOP’s future. But his retirement gives Trump’s wing of the party an opportunity to gain significant ground in the Senate…
Reactions I’m seeing on Twitter, so far, run heavily towards Good riddance RINO time to bring in another AMERICA FIRST stalwart!!!1!. (Claire McCaskill has announced she will not run again.)
Me, I’m rooting for injuries, since the only thing those demented xenophobes love more than bashing ‘those people’ is accusing each other of insufficient zealotry. What say you, Missourians?
craigie
Somewhere in the middle
zhena gogolia
I was born there but have not set foot in the state since 2005. It used to be fairly sane.
debbie
? Please, please, please let Johnson be the next to announce. ?
Ruckus
Good riddance.
Let’s hope that some of the trash is replaced with actual humans.
We may have to pitch in and help some of the people that will run for their slots. A fine use for some of that money that shitforbrains and President Biden have given/are giving us.
Ruckus
@zhena gogolia:
My father and his parents are from there.
They left just a bit before you (1918) Also bet their form of transportation was different, horse drawn wagon.
A Ghost to Most
@Ruckus: His replacement will be worse than Lord Haw Hawley. Misery is a lost cause.
Soprano2
@Ruckus: i hate to break it to you, but the most probable outcome I see right now is Senator Greitens, who will be as bad as Hawley. He’s making noises about a political comeback; now I know why. Blunt is a member of the GOP who wants nothing to do with the GQP, I guarantee it. He’s retiring to spend more time with his trophy wife.
MisterForkbeard
Damn. I was hoping McCaskill would run again.
She had some terrible moments, but overall I feel like she has a better chance than any other Dem that I can think of. I have family in Missouri, and every experience I have there is that it’s kind of a backwards place.
Soprano2
If Kander would run he might have a chance, but he’s already said he’s not interested. The Democratic bench in Missouri is thin.
Soprano2
@MisterForkbeard: For all the criticism of McCaskill, she’s one of the best Democrats who could win statewide here (Kander might be the best). Missouri will be a decades-long rebuilding project for Democrats, if not longer. If Mel Carnahan hadn’t been killed in that plane crash Missouri might be a different place today.
les
Unfortunately, MO has a surplus of Hawley wannabes ready to step up. Protecting the MO life style, ya know?
Ruckus
@debbie:
Please, please let there be a few more deciding not to run.
Also I saw somewhere that the turtle has asked that the KY governor appoint a republican if he needs/decides to be replaced. Also the KY senate has a bill before it that the governor would have to replace a senator stepping down with one of 3 candidates that members of the same political party as the current US senator would propose.
Turgidson
Not that I blame him, but alas, Jason Kander has also already stated that he’s not running.
Gov. Nixon left office less popular than genital warts after bungling the Ferguson situation, didn’t he? He’s the only Missouri Democrat I even know of other than Kander, Claire, and Cori Bush (who is great but brand new and doesn’t seem like a great statewide prospect in MO at the moment).
Nicole
I am figuring a Trumpy ends up winning the seat, and, as they cannot govern for shit, I start to feel like this Trump takeover of the GOP, due to the evil-but-still-sane members giving up and retiring ultimately resolves either with the end of the USA as a democracy, or the end of the GOP. I know which one I’m rooting for.
cmorenc
I would gladly take a Joe Manchin-style Democrat if they could win this seat. Alas, the type of progressive (or even progressive-lite) candidate who could easily carry St. Louis and KC is unlikely to be able to overtop the more numerous conservative-leaning rural and small town portion of Missouri’s electorate who elected the likes of Josh Hawley. By contrast, Atlanta and its suburbs have grown to a sufficient share of the electorate to make a win by Rev. Warnock possible, whereas the demographics of Missouri seem to have gone the other way over the last 20 years.
PsiFighter37
@Turgidson: Yeah, I don’t think Nixon has a future…I think he would have too much weakness in the STL area to offset any gains he might get elsewhere. Nicole Galloway (state auditor) is the only statewide Democrat, and she just got pasted by 16% in the governor’s race.
Whomever the Democrats run, sadly, will be a sacrificial lamb. I would rather focus on the two former swing states closer to us (Iowa, where I have to imagine Grassley is going to retire, and Ohio) than on Missouri, which voted to the right of Kansas at the presidential level last year.
namekarB
@Soprano2: Is Greitens the super trooper governor that resigned so as not to face an investigation of some sort?
Ruckus
@Soprano2:
I have no doubt that any republican that runs will be worse. I have no doubt that there are states that have a lot of nice people living in them but a majority, or solid majority of republicans, and are going to be lost for some time to come, likely after I’m gone, which I hope isn’t for another 25 yrs, just to be fucking ornery.
Nicole
@Ruckus: I saw that too. And as McConnell is so very interested in getting it passed (and the GOP has a veto-proof majority in the Kentucky legislature) I can only hope that whatever has McConnell worried about his replacement catches up with him before the KY legislature can pass the law.
debbie
@Ruckus:
I hope that Beshear (Democratic governor) gives McConnell what-for for that stupid request. You just know McConnell wouldn’t do the same for him.
Omnes Omnibus
@debbie: I want Johnson to run again.
Mike in NC
Grassley in Iowa is 87 and needs to retire.
zhena gogolia
@namekarB:
Yes, and Hawley was mixed up in that somehow.
Eljai
@Soprano2: My family lives in the Kansas City area. If I recall correctly, Missourians have voted to kill an anti-union measure and they’ve voted to legalize weed. But then they put republicans in office. It’s like there’s a disconnect.
zhena gogolia
@namekarB:
https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article220601805.html
Ruckus
@debbie:
turtle has friends in the KY senate so they may make it despite anything the KY governor might desire. I hope they don’t, turtle is a major reason that this country is where it is right now and I’d like to see his ass sitting on his porch doing fuck all to make it worse.
TS (the original)
@debbie:
With his SCOTUS behavior you know he wouldn’t do the same for anyone. Republicans in power are 100% partisan. When they lose that power – suddenly bipartisan is most important.
Ruckus
@Eljai:
It’s not like there is a disconnect, it is a disconnect.
jayjaybear
@namekarB: IIRC, the investigation in question was of a sexual nature (Greitens was an aficionado of certain alternate heterosexual intimate activities…).
Baud
@Eljai:
There’s no disconnect. In referendums, they vote their interests. In elections, they vote their hate.
Brachiator
Is Missouri the Show Me Some Crazy state for Republicans?
Baud
I recruit OzarkHillbilly!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Turgidson:
Cori Bush won’t be able to win statewide office here. Missouri has become a very Trumpy state. I don’t even think McCaskill could win here any more. As much as I could not stand Blunt, he isn’t a disturbing radical like Hawley. Whoever replaces Blunt will be worse
The sad part is that when I moved here in the 90s, Missouri was a purple state. We have really lost here in a big, big way.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
That would be amazing! He could win!
Nelle
My paranoid suspicion is that Grassley runs again and wins. Shortly later, he resigns and the governor appoints his grandson, Pat, who is the Senate majority leader in the Iowa Legislature. Keep it in the family.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
OzarkHillbilly for Senate: Blech.
Best political slogan ever!
Edmund Dantes
I am glad Claire is smart enough to know she shouldn’t run. She got trounced the last time she did during a wave election for her party.
I really don’t see how a democrat wins there the way Missouri has trended maybe if someone started now and could build up the right reputation and had the political skills they could pull off an upset, but that wasn’t Claire Mccasskil.
Kander seemed the closest but he’s already pulled his name out.
Geminid
Roy Blunt beat Jason Kander by only 3 points in 2016. After trouncing the hapless Todd Akin in 2012, Claire McCaskell lost to the creepy Josh Hawley by 5 points in 2018. These were not dominant Republican wins. Next year’s Democratic primary will yield a decent candidate, and depending on what the political dynamic in Missouri will be next year, decent might be good enough. I would not count the eventual Democratic Senate candidate out.
Soprano2
@namekarB: Yes, that’s him. He was a Trump-in-training. They love him here in SWMO.
Baud
@Geminid:
Maybe the GOP nominee will suffer a scandal if emails surface that he recognized Biden’s win.
cmorenc
@Soprano2:
Democrats have suffered a long string of pivotal razor’s edge pivotal events over the past 50 years where, had events fallen the other way, this country would have likely turned out much better and different.
I’m sure this doesn’t exhaust the D what-if list, but that’s all I can think of at the moment.
Albatrossity
I lived in Missouri for 3 years. It is a Confederate state in nearly every way, at least historically. The legislature is positively antediluvian.
Of course, my own state, which came into the Union after a long struggle with Missouri border ruffians and thugs, is not any better these days. Bleeding Kansas has become another Confederate state…
zhena gogolia
OT, really cool clip of Meghan as a child.
Jeffro
Probably not a bad thing that we can run ads anywhere & everywhere about this dynamic in ’22 and ’24 (minimum).
The Pale Scot
Oh this looks like a chance to do some ratfucking. Would a dollar be better spent in the Democratic primary? Or directed to whatever lunatic looks like they have a real chance to win the GQP primary? the League of the South and the Proud boys look promising. Find one with unacknowledged scandals, and let it rip.
zhena gogolia
@Albatrossity:
Please excuse KC, St. Louis, and Columbia from this accusation.
Jeffro
@Geminid: I suggest we run it by Stacey Abrams and get her take ;)
Jeffro
@The Pale Scot: you don’t really want those kinds of donations to be in some record somewhere, do you?
I mean, believe me, I get the sentiment… =)
Soprano2
@Eljai: I think it’s a culture thing. If you’d talked to my co-workers today you’d understand. Caravans of hundreds of thousands are coming , and Biden is just going to let them in! Mr. Potato Head being called Potato Head is a big deal, it’s “cancelling” a vision of the father/ mother family unit (I’m not kidding). And, they can’t understand why anyone thinks you might be a racist if you voted for Trump. That offends them a lot.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: He’s a progressive with rural bonafides! He’s the Beto O’Rourke of MO!
Geminid
@Baud: You can count on next year’s Republican primary to have a lot of crazy. I hope to follow it closely, rooting for injuries.
zhena gogolia
@Soprano2:
Hmmm. They love nonconsensual BDSM, I guess.
Family values Cawthorne-style.
BC in Illinois
I have seen a few comments talking about the Republican primary to come, with the names of Ann Wagner and Eric Greitens prominently displayed. Greitens is running in the the Trump lane, as a hateful, corrupt, and genuinely repellent human being. Ann Wagner (R – safe Republican vote) has been called (by Politico, if I remember correctly) someone “well connected to the Republican donor class.” She has worked to make herself as innocuous and forgettable as possible [“Forgotten, but not gone”], and has gone so far as to certify actual Electoral College results. She then votes a otherwise straight Party line. If anyone arises to beat these two, that person is sure to be no better.
Jason Kandor and Claire McCaskill have quickly taken themselves out of the running on the Democratic side. I don’t know who will emerge from the shadows. It’s going to be tough
[Note: BC in Illinois actually lives in St. Louis County. I’ve been here long enough to vote against Ann Wagner three times.]
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Write. Him. In.
Soprano2
@zhena gogolia: They don’t care about that, he was a Navy Seal and is a lot like Trump.
debbie
@Omnes Omnibus
So you can watch him lose?
Geminid
@Albatrossity: …a Confederate state with a Democratic Governor.
Soprano2
@zhena gogolia: They don’t care about that, he was a Navy Seal and is a lot like Trump. He thumbs his nose at the Republican establishment, they love that.
Mousebumples
@debbie: I think OO probably thinks (and I agree) that Johnson will be easier to beat than, say, my House Rep who is rumored to be considering a run and is very slick and doesn’t have the same record that can be attacked by a Dem challenger.
randy khan
Politicians and Senators in particular, tend to decide not to run for reelection for one of two reasons:
Category 2 has two subcategories:
I don’t know which category Blunt is in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s 1 or 2-2 (so to speak). He might fear a Q/Trumpy challenger or that things will be bad for Republicans in general in 2022, or he might be looking around at the other races and thinking that the Dems are going to keep or build their Senate majority, and that he doesn’t need to spend six more years in the minority where they don’t get to have any fun. (And, honestly, from what I’ve read, being a Republican Senator is not that much fun anyway in the age of McConnell.)
Dorothy A. Winsor
Have any D senators decided not to run again?
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: OHB would win, but his gardens would suffer while he campaigned. And his having to commute from DC would not help them either. I’m hoping that another good candidate will step up.
BlueGuitarist
@BC in Illinois: what do you think of former state senator Scott Sifton, who seems to be the only Democratic candidate so far?
VOR
@cmorenc: Gore picks someone other than Lieberman as a running mate.
Geminid
@VOR: Like Senator Bob Graham of Florida, damnit!
Albatrossity
@zhena gogolia:
I live in University City, a suburb of St. Louis. St Louis, was, at the time (late 1970’s-early 1980’s) a very Southern City. The recent disturbances in the northern suburbs (Ferguson, et al.) say to me that it is still the case. Very segregated, very reactionary, IMHO.
KC might be different (and definitely has better BBQ), but i’ve no direct experience there
?BillinGlendaleCA
@cmorenc: I don’t think Teddy would have beat Reagan.
BruceFromOhio
@Soprano2:
Think of more Hawleys. That’s what the red state fascists want, and that’s what they will foist on the rest of us. We got 18 months to fill the sandbags and build the levees, there is a flood of shit on the way.
Jackie
Scott Siften/Sifton (D) has announced he’s running for Blunt’s seat. Do any of you Missourians know anything about him?
Geminid
@BruceFromOhio: How is it looking for the race to fill Ohio’s open Senate seat next year? (don’t mean to profile, but it seems like you might live there).
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@zhena gogolia:
Its not that they approve of that. Its just that at least he is heterosexual and a ‘real’ man. I can’t explain just how threatened and angry they are about cultural change. Nothing upsets them more than issues around men, women, and their roles in relationships and in society. Modern gender theory offends them on a visceral level.
Baud
LGM
Mary G
@Omnes Omnibus: Is he beatable? He seems so slimy.
BruceFromOhio
@Geminid: it makes me ill. OH Dems are lackluster on a good day. The dumpster fire won twice, owing to seas of red surrounding tiny blue islands. And the race to see who is the bigger Trumpista is underway. Someone else commented that voters vote their values in referendums, and vote their hate in general elections. Ohio is a case study.
I’m curious what Kay and Ohio Mom have to say.
Baud
@Baud:
Chris Hayes pursuing the same theme as the LGM post.
206inKY
Hawley has some real demons in his closet from college. He’ll never be president. The NYT article is just the tip of the iceburg.
zhena gogolia
@Albatrossity:
It’s better than St. Louis, I believe (caveat I haven’t lived there since 1981).
zhena gogolia
@206inKY:
Do tell.
Baud
@206inKY:
Plus, you know, the sedition.
206inKY
@zhena gogolia: Nope.
sab
@BruceFromOhio: Have you heard anything in the last month? Last I heard was Tim Ryan and Dr Amy Acton were both seriously considering.
Josh Mandel is considering the GOP side so seriously that he has revived that weird faux Appalachian accent that he learned in the east of Cleveland suburbs of Beachwood and Lyndhurst.
OzarkHillbilly
You misspelled “Miserians” again, but what I say is,
“Be still my beating heart.” and “We are so fucked.”
cmorenc
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
(1) Reagan would not have not necessarily been the R nominee had Ford been the incumbent in 1980, unless Ford elected not to run;
(2) With Ford as the incumbent with stagflation and Iran hostage crisis continuing into the 1980 election season, Reagan would have won the base R vote, but the less partisan “change” vote would not have worked in his favor, but instead toward Kennedy. The 1980 election turned heavily on the “change” factor from a country domestically and internationally under stress.
Ken
Doubtful. Whatever you may think of Mephistopheles, he sticks to the letter of the contract. If it says August 13, that will be the day McConnell’s soul is dragged down to Hell, and not one minute before.
Geminid
@BruceFromOhio: If Sherrod Brown could win reelection by 300,000 votes in 2018, it seems like next year’s Democratic Senate nominee will have a fighting chance. So long as the primary is not very destructive.
Virginia also seemed inevitably Republican, until it wasn’t. And President Obama carried Ohio at least once.
zhena gogolia
@OzarkHillbilly:
Did you see the “Draft Ozark Hillbilly” movement that has started in this thread?
zhena gogolia
@cmorenc:
Jackie
@OzarkHillbilly: I apologize for the misspelling ??♀️
TomatoQueen
My maternal great grandma was from Missouri originally, but somehow managed to arrive in Los Angeles while young enough to marry a native Angeleno. Yes, there is a much banged-up family Bible now in my possession, and after the worst of pollen season ends, I’ll turn the pages to see what I can make of the spidery handwriting and the astounding fertility (10 kids seems to have been the routine family size).
?BillinGlendaleCA
@cmorenc: If Ford had won in 76, he couldn’t have run in 80; he’d served over 2 years of the remainder of Nixon’s term.
Hoppie
@cmorenc: Don’t forget Republicans ginning up the Abe Fortas fautrage and gifting Nixon two Supreme Court seats. Some of their more evilly cunning non-pols have played that long game much too well, we discover.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@zhena gogolia: Yup, that would have sunk Teddy against Reagan.
James E Powell
@Nelle:
This sounds more plausible than paranoid.
Lyrebird
@OzarkHillbilly:
My heart is still hoping for Mr H to need to change his views of felon’s voting rights REAL SOON now.
sdhays
@Baud: I think we first need more pet pictures to vet their “Senatorialness” before they are subjected to the rigors of a Newsmax investigation.
The Pale Scot
@Jeffro:
2 words, gift cards. Buy them with cash. Buy a tracfone with cash, temporary disposable email address, no problemo
zhena gogolia
Bill Arnold
@The Pale Scot:
While you’re at it and have the phone, make a collection of social media accounts. Access them only with Tor e.g. Tor browser, and play.
(There are more layers of paranoia one can slather on, but Senators aren’t nation-states. (Any threats might be investigated hard, though. The phone is a weak point especially if it’s ever turned on in your home.))
Steve in the ATL
@The Pale Scot: you don’t have to register a tracphone to use it? What about straight talk?
um, asking for a friend.
@Soprano2: Greitens lives in in B-J fame for giving us the green balloons symbol!
Omnes Omnibus
@A Ghost to Most:
But if we listened to you, we would all be living as partisans in the mountains.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: Ah, Tito, one of my favorites!
jonas
I know a lot of people are pointing and going “Haw! haw!” at Blunt’s announcement, but of course this means that he is just going to be replaced by a neofascist Trumpist whackjob that makes Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton look like Mr. Smith.
karen marie
@Ruckus: I thought that was a thing most places – that the appointment has to be someone of the same party. Am I wrong?
The Moar You Know
Ted Kennedy could not have won against Reagan in 1980. And Reagan would have run. He might not have won the primary against Ford, but given what the economy was like then I think that’s an unlikely scenario. Had Ford won the primary I think he’d have won the presidency. Ted was flat-out not electable.
raven
@Steve in the ATL: Burners.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mary G: Anyone is beatable. You just need enough votes.
The Pale Scot
@Steve in the ATL:
What I have done is go to a Library or Publix, be outside to avoid cameras, use the free WiFi with a laptop using a VPN to register. Buy 60 minutes 30 days phone cards. Keep the battery out of the phone. Purely for entertainment purposes, of course.
Stuart Frasier
@cmorenc: RBG’s death led to the Rose Garden endzone dance/superspreader event. Everyone in Trumpworld getting coronavirus took the wind out of their sails. An unlucky bounce and Biden wouldn’t have become president to nominate a successor.
Gin & Tonic
@The Pale Scot: How do you know you can trust the VPN?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@The Moar You Know: Ford couldn’t have run in 1980 if he had been re-elected(elected) in 1976, 22nd Amendment.
mac8
@sab:
Josh Mandel running as the Republican nominee for the OH senate seat would make me feel better about our chances.
Martin
I don’t think we’re giving Dems nearly enough credit here.
WH backs the PRO act. Manchin says no to using reconciliation for infrastructure, says to use it for HR1. I think the votes are there for filibuster reform, which is why they are pushing support for bills that would never in a million years get to 60.
GOPs are seeing the writing on the wall. If Dems get HR1 though, and the GOP insists on being a white nationalist party, they can’t win. They can’t fundraise. They can’t control Trump. They can’t manipulate elections. Yeah, they’ll be safe in Mississippi, but nationally, they’re done for. It’s going to be a long time before they hold majorities if gerrymandering is outlawed.
Ruckus
@karen marie:
Only 3 states require same political party.
Here is a website that explains the laws and which state.
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
I might have done such things using Tor over a no-logs VPN. Belt and suspenders. One can layer on more proxies too. Some people use Tails.
Ken
Eckels stais on the path. The butterflie iss not crushd. Oswalt’s shot iss tru and Kenedy, not Jaqui, dies. Jonson steps doun after wun term and Nikson wins. A nitemare world, al becoz a butterflie livd.
The Pale Scot
@Gin & Tonic:
Ultimately you can’t. Some services say they don’t keep logs. I use PIA, one of the more popular ones, which means that the IP I’m using is a firehose of hundreds or thousands of people using the same IP. On the other hand some websites won’t allow me on because the IP is tagged as VPN, other than amazon and netflix and BBC iPlayer it’s not a hassle. I’m not a NCIS villain. I don’t like where this big data with face recognition is going. The reason I love big cities is the anonymity.
Here’s a good overview.
Does your VPN Keep Logs? 120 VPN Logging Policies Revealed
PS the WYSIWYG comment interface is down
Bill Arnold
@Martin:
If HR1 goes through, attempts to use friendly courts to overturn it or parts of it will start, up to the Supreme Court. (The Rs aren’t guaranteed wins.)
raven
@Ken: You can’t look up a dead horses ass.
Poe Larity
What if we get Brad Pitt to move back to MO and run?
James E Powell
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I worked (for Carter) on that campaign for over a year. Kennedy was the Bernie & his followers were the Bernie Bros of their day. Kennedy worked pretty hard to sabotage & undermine Carter from day one.
Neither Kennedy nor his supporters seemed to understand that Chappaquiddick meant that he could never be president. People who liked him thought so.
New Deal coalition disintegrated in the late 70s. People like to blame Carter, but there was really nothing he could do about it.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@James E Powell: 1980 was the first Presidential election I was able to vote, I even saw Teddy when he came to speak at UCLA. You’re on target with this comment.
cain
@Ruckus:
That’ a big ask from someone who doesn’t honor shit and his word is crap. Good luck getting the governor to give up that power. Plus, what happens when it is GOP gov eh? They’ll happily change the rules there too. Assholes.
I need some cheese to go with this whine.
cain
@PsiFighter37:
I disagree, I think every state is winnable and we shouldn’t write off a single one. Sure will happen now? No. But you get someone like Stacey Abrams and maybe in 5-6 years we can start making progress.
cain
@Eljai:
What it indicates is that Missourians are attached to the GOP because of cultural reasons. Maybe we should just start running our Dem candidates through the GOP as more centrists. If they want weed, a GOP politician is not going to do it – so maybe getting us as the conservative weed supporter might be a way in.
Eolirin
@Geminid: You’re missing an important dynamic. States that have growing and increasingly prosperous urban centers are turning more blue, states that face dying or weak urban areas are turning more red.
Sherrod Brown is an exception, his successes don’t seem so easy to duplicate. And the overall trend for Ohio is red not blue. It’s going to take a lot to reverse that. Like active policy that improves the viability of their urban economies for a decade plus combined with significant organization at the state party level.
Eolirin
@cain: He isn’t going to get a say when the state legislature overrides his veto.
patrick II
The two most small-time random things that stopped a Democrat from being elected president were, first, Elian Gonzalez surviving a boat wreck off of the coast of Florida and being sent back to his father in Cuba by Clinton. That had to cost Gore at least 350 Cuban-American votes in Florida and gave us eight years of Cheney/Bush.
And then a badly designed ballot in the same state in the same election causing thousands of votes for Pat Buchanan that were obviously meant for Gore.
cain
@cmorenc:
Sorry, but Gore should never have ran from Clinton. The fact that he put that prick Lieberman as his running mate is why we suck as a party. In general, should have gotten a much more vibrant, outgoing VP instead of that reprobate conservative centrist.
If Gore had one, we would have that shit head Lieberman running for President and he would have lost.
Bill Arnold
@cain:
Veto override in Kentucky is simple majorities.
According to wikipedia.
Ruckus
@cain:
Also someone who is a democrat and has seen turtle get 16% or less approval and something like 60-70% of the votes. Something may be rotten in KY. Well remember that they had to rename Obamacare for anyone to think it was good. They implemented with I believe only changing the name.
artem1s
the MO and OH open Senate seats might not be winnable, but the GQP has to spend some real time, energy, and money on keeping those seats. And probably waste a ton of dollars on super ugly primaries. It’s going to be like that for a while for them. As soon as they put out one fire another one is going to flare up and everywhere they look the fundraising machine is sprouting leaks like crazy. On top of it all the former guy and the traitor tots will be trying to butt in and wet their beaks.
cain
@Soprano2:
I think a lot about conservatism is reactionary to an avalanche of change – in the family unit, established norms, even our pronouns are changing. Society in its drive to be more inclusive is dispensing with a lot of norms and some folks cannot keep up. Even gender is no longer just a man and a woman. While I can appreciate that – I think conservative values of family, honor and creed are timeless and is still applicable regardless.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Ruckus: You’re familiar with the phrase, “He’s a bastard, but he’s our bastard.”?
Marcopolo
Haven’t commented a lot lately & haven’t read most of this thread but my comment to the folks I group text w/ here in St Louis is we’ll probably wind up with a worse R Senator after all the votes are counted. In order for a D candidate to win the R would need to be absolutely nutters/toxic & that still wouldn’t guarantee they’d lose. Best chance for a better outcome would be for someone (honestly I have no idea who) w/ high name recognition statewide & not currently considered partisan to run as a sensible moderate Independent and no D candidate in the race. That might keep an R out of the seat.
And, yes, bad as Blunt was at least he understood how gov’t works, wasn’t just a performative @ss like Hawley & did reach out to & talk to folks across the aisle.
Okay going back to reading occasional threads and rarely commenting for the time being.
cain
@randy khan:
If you love policy there is nothing to do there. You just get in line and vote whatever the party does. I can’t imagine how frustrating that would be.
AnotherBruce
From Wikipedia.
Scott Sifton (born May 7, 1974) is an American attorney and politician who served as a member of the Missouri Senate for the 1st district from 2013 to 2021.
CaseyL
Hey, has anyone seen the new T* scam? It’s a doozie.
He’s formed a Trump PAC, and is soliciting donations. Telling people to send the money to his PAC, not to the regular GOP fundraising committees, because they’re all RINOs. He says the money will go to Trump-approved candidates (riiiiight,)
It’ll be delightful to see how much money he skims off.
Kay
@BruceFromOhio:
I’m going to work on this one:
For Ohio governor. 2022
cain
@BruceFromOhio:
I might fancy running for a local office – I’ve already started building bridges within the Democratic party here – but it’s for something else. I work for a somewhat left of center company and we are doing green jobs. I’m thinking of starting a 501c4 org so I can start building coalition with the idea that we can use tech infra to help neighborhood. The process has started and people are interested.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@CaseyL:
All of it, Katie.
cain
@Martin:
Manchin is absolutely right. We win if voting is more accessible – and so we will absolutely need to get that out there. We will also have to bring in DC and maybe PR if they want it. Expand the courts.. block these assholes at every turn.
I don’t envy Biden, he has a lot of work ahead of him.
cain
@Eolirin:
I wasn’t aware they had veto proof majorities. I’m surprised he can get anything done.
NoraLenderbee
@Ken: This was exactly the story that came to mind after Black Tuesday, Nov. 2016.
Timill
@CaseyL: It’s not a scam if he’s a candidate for something. Alas.
James E Powell
@Kay:
He’s sure got some bodacious academic credentials.
I was kind of hoping for a woman, but I am no longer familiar with any D politicians in my beloved home state.
cain
@Kay:
It’s great to see you commenting again.
mrmoshpotato
@CaseyL: Sheep don’t get fleeced as badly as Dump trash supporters.
Kay
@James E Powell:
He’s talented. If he’s not corrupt or a “skirt chaser”, which I once heard John Boehner described as, btw, (ha! gross) he MIGHT win. Long shotty. But those are fun.
bluehill
@cain: Reconciliation as in budget reconciliation? I thought HR1 doesn’t qualify, although I wish it would or dems would stick something budget related into it.
patrick II
@cain:I agree that a voting rights act is more important, but I worry about the parliamentarian deciding which parts affect the budget.Also, how did master politician McConnell leave the Democrats a second reconciliation bill this year?
ETA: I see Blue Hill asked the same thing.
cintibud
@Kay: Cranley is my mayor. He’d be a good one but DeWine will be tough to beat due to his Corona virus response – while lacking in places, very good for a republican. Due to this he appears to be a “sensible moderate” that doesn’t frighten folks like confirmed RWNJs. However the RWNJ despise him for that very reason. Do you think he could be successfully primaried from the right? Love to hear your views on Ohio politics
Ken
@CaseyL: “All those wasted years skimming charities for wounded veterans and pediatric cancer, when with a PAC you can keep all of the money!”
BlueGuitarist
@Marcopolo: Your comments are valuable and appreciated!
This comment seems grim but realistic. Hope you’re ok.
cintibud
@patrick II: @bluehill: I saw a post by Kent (I think) recently with the idea that a new “Schumer rule” could be created that stated Civil Rights legislation can not be filibustered. The thinking is that Manchin and the other Dem traditionalists would be able to agree to that reform and HR1 could be passed that way. They would use the argument that there is a long sad history of Civil Rights legislation being filibustered – and it’s happening again. I haven’t heard if this is really a possibility but it sounds like a winner to me. Anyone know anything about this?
smith
I think master politician Nancy Pelosi did that. As I recall, budget bills have to originate in the House.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@smith: Republicans haven’t been big on passing budgets in the last 30 years or so, continuing appropriations is more their style. Moscow Mitch isn’t really a master politician in getting things done, just at obstruction.
Ken
The only constitutional restriction is that bills to raise revenue must originate in the House. There may be laws with other restrictions, though I would tend to doubt it because I can’t see either chamber restricting its powers.
What Pelosi, or rather Democratic control of the House, did was make it impossible for the Republicans to use a reconciliation bill when the budget cycle started in September.
Nettoyeur
@Geminid: ohb=??
Amir Khalid
@Nettoyeur:
See comment #32.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Nettoyeur: Ozark HillBilly.
phdesmond
I’m already vaccinated
61%
178 votes
I’ll get a vaccine as soon as I’m able to
37%
107 votes
early poll results from readers at daily kos.
wonder how that compares to here?
RaflW
Blunt is a Republican who acts now like wants nothing to do with the GQP. But in voting to acquit, twice, he helped the MAGA fever get hotter. Fuck him.
bluehill
@cintibud: Go Chuck! IMO the long term importance of HR1 is more significant than the stimulus package. Dems have to get this done.
debbie
@cintibud:
It’s not that DeWine could be primaried, he will be primaried. Guaranteed,
Mary G
@Kay:
Nice to see your name!
cintibud
@bluehill: Abb-so-lute-ly. There was also discussion I saw here (I think) that Manchin was open to an idea of removing the hard 60 vote threshold to 3/5ths of members *present* and force everyone to stick around, make it painful. I don’t have any more details on that idea though.
cintibud
@debbie: I’m sure of that – my question was how likely it was that he could lose the primary. Since whoever could successfully primary him would be truly terrible I might need to take an R ballot and vote for DeWine if it’s close – can’t give the wackos a chance, learned my lesson with the former guy
BruceFromOhio
@Ken: that was one of the best sci-fi stories ever written.
“That weakling, Keith?”
Jesse
Here’s hoping we’ll get a good D to stand up here. MO deserves better.
KrackenJack
@cain:
Late to the thread, but good for you on multiple levels. Best of luck in your local activism.
Geminid
@Nettoyeur: that’s Ozark HillBilly. A three-letter nickname, like RBG, or AOC. Kinda rolls off the tongue. This could be helpful for an outsider candidate without much name recognition. Yet.
Geminid
@Eolirin: The dynamic you speak of, of a prospering economy tending to make a state bluer, is very real. It is a lot of what has turned Virginia blue. One factor may be the higher education levels that now seem to track with increased propensity to vote Democratic. (Fifty years ago this group tended to be majority Republican). A lot of growth these days is in the newer “information economy” that may require higher education.
So Virginia has trended blue, while Ohio, it’s manufacturing base hollowed out, has trended red. We Virginians like to pat ourselves on the back, attributing our success to good governance. But where would we be without the tax money from 49 other states pouring into Northern Virginia and the military-industrial powerhouse of the Norfolk-Newport News area? Behind Ohio, like we used to be.
Geminid
@Geminid: This is not to say that Ohio cannot elect a Democratic Senator or Governor. It just makes that task harder. Sherrod Brown did win reelection by 300,000 votes. He is an outlier in recent Ohio electoral history, but he’s not a freak so much as a throwback. Brown is a New Deal Democrat, what you might now call a pragmatic progressive.
One factor in recent Democratic dominance in Virginia is the rightward lurch of the state’s Republican party. A coalition of tea party cranks and religious zealots flexed their muscle in 2014, when they knocked out establishment Republican Eric Cantor.* Since then, the radicals have imposed a small minded, small tent model on their party, ceding the center to the moderately liberal Democats. We don’t know if the Ohio Republicans will run radicals or establishment types next year, but the primary process will be fraught with the conflict between these two wings. In Virginia, those internal conflicts have pretty much wrecked the state’s Republican party.
*Cantor’s 7th District seat had been in Republican hands since the realignment of the 1970’s, when the formerly dominant Byrd Machine Democrats moved in and took over the Virginia Republican party. Cantor’s challenger held that Richmond suburban and exurban seat only four years before Abigail Spanberger flipped it in 2018. She narrowly won reelection last November.