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You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / Exponents, vaccines and seasonality

Exponents, vaccines and seasonality

by David Anderson|  May 11, 20217:36 am| 87 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, COVID-19

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A bit of good news:

We were stuck at 70K cases/day for a long time

In mid-April, cases started falling

It took 10 days to go from 70K to 60K

8 days later, we were at 50K/day

Its been 6 days and about to dip below 40K

Soon, we'll get to 30K

This is exponential decay

And its a good thing

— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) May 10, 2021

Right now, the national R(eproductive) is 0.9 which means for every ten people currently infected, they will infect about nine new people. At current pace, we’ll cut our daily caseload in half in under a month and by 75% in less than 50 days. Exponential decay works in our favor just like exponential growth kicked us in the junk last fall.

Every day that a non-vaccinated person is uninfected, it increases the odds that they will be vaccinated and more importantly, it increases the density of social interactions where at least one person is vaccinated. The virus will continue to spread, but it is facing a far more difficult time this year than last year in spreading even as the current dominant variant is naturally more infectious this year than last year. We are also entering prime outdoor time where people are going to be naturally spread out and breathing in very well ventilated spaces. We won’t be sharing as much air.

The combination of vaccinations and seasonality of social activity should give us a good chance over the summer to locally squash COVID to isolated clusters by the time the schools are open for the Academic 2021-2022 year. If we are able to drive down local case counts to a point where testing, tracing and isolating can be nearly universal, we can keep small clusters to small clusters and move forward.

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Reader Interactions

87Comments

  1. 1.

    Ohio Mom

    May 11, 2021 at 8:17 am

    Yeah, I’ve been waiting for that exponential drop but I’m not seeing it here in my corner of southwest Ohio — at least according to the NYT page for Hamilton County.

    We did have a big drop in cases from the last week in January through February, and that was exciting and hopeful to see. But it’s been pretty much one long plateau since.

    My crackpot theory is What do you expect, Ohio is full of yahoos who haven’t gotten vaccinated, are lousy mask wearers, and otherwise ignore every safety measure. We responsible people are doing our part but we are outnumbered, and there is only so far our actions will take the region.

  2. 2.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?

    May 11, 2021 at 8:29 am

    Well, some of us are entering prime outdoor season, but the deep South and desert Southwest are entering “cooped up inside in air conditioning” season. I guess the deep South maybe doesn’t get quite hot enough for people to absolutely have to be indoors but there are parts of the SW where AC is pretty much essential.

  3. 3.

    Matt McIrvin

    May 11, 2021 at 8:36 am

    For a long time it seemed like the floor on case rates came from the level at which officials and citizens lost their fear of COVID enough to start doing foolish things, and that level kept rising. Mass vaccination makes it a bit harder for the virus, but maybe not as much as you might think because the most foolhardy people are the same ones who don’t get vaccinated.

  4. 4.

    sab

    May 11, 2021 at 8:44 am

    @Ohio Mom: In my part of Ohio vaccines have only been readily accessible for everyone for a couple of weeks. Nursing home residents and workers have been able to get rhem for months. Health care workers also. Teachers and older people only since February. But for ordinary people in their twenties, thirties and forties, appointments only became available in April, and those were rare and off in the boondocks. I will be really surprised if the infection rates don’t drop dramatically now that walkin shots are available at big chain pharmacies statewide.

  5. 5.

    Rusty

    May 11, 2021 at 8:49 am

    Demand has dropped so much that everyone is opening to walk-ins, while at the same time the various parent forums we are on, people are frantically trying to pre-book their 12-15 year olds to get vaccinated.  We are hoping the two intersect, and by this weekend we can take our 12 year old to the closest state run vaccination site (upstate NY) and get the first jab.

  6. 6.

    Punchy

    May 11, 2021 at 8:51 am

    I just “learned” this morning that the Pfizer mRNA vax can (will?) change one’s DNA.   For reals, this is apparently a RW talking point.   I asked my neighbor where in our bodies we store the reverse transcriptase enzymes necessary for said alteration, and he said he didnt know these science things.   But was ADAMANT that DNA change was certain.

    How do these people live day-to-day so untethered to actual facts?

  7. 7.

    Baud

    May 11, 2021 at 8:59 am

    @Punchy: 

    I just “learned” this morning that the Pfizer mRNA vax can (will?) change one’s DNA

    For a lot of people, that would be a net gain.

  8. 8.

    Jerzy Russian

    May 11, 2021 at 9:02 am

    @Punchy: 

    To be fair to your neighbor, some of those with altered DNA use their powers for evil, like that dude with magnetic powers. Maybe focus on the mutants who tried to use their powers for good, assuming there are any.

  9. 9.

    sab

    May 11, 2021 at 9:09 am

    My oldest grand-daughter just got her second Moderna shot. She said it was a bit uncomfortable absorbing all those microchips into her body.

  10. 10.

    Ohio Mom

    May 11, 2021 at 9:10 am

    Sab:

    Okay, I’ll try to be more patient, you make good points.

    The vaccine roll-out has driven home to me what a bubble I live in. Everyone in my various circles — nearby friends and acquaintances, family and friends spread throughout the country — have gotten their shots or are at this point, between jabs, with the exception of those that are currently too young. And the two young teens I know are just about ready to start circling the walk-in clinics like vultures waiting for their next meal.

    Even the handful of Republicans I know are vaccinated. It turns out my life is small in this aspect. Not that I’m eager to add any anti-vacxxers.

  11. 11.

    MattF

    May 11, 2021 at 9:13 am

    @Punchy: Derek Lowe on viruses changing your DNA. Short version: it’s true, and it’s been happening for the past several billion years.

  12. 12.

    WereBear

    May 11, 2021 at 9:14 am

    @Punchy: How do these people live day-to-day so untethered to actual facts?

    Do they need them? The obvious, like “cars need gasoline to run” and “groceries require money” don’t get meddled with by Q.

    Only stuff the targets never understood and won’t look up are asserted.

  13. 13.

    jonas

    May 11, 2021 at 9:15 am

    @Punchy:  I forget who it was — possibly Carl Sagan — who predicted that as the world and our economy become more reliant on advanced technologies and highly specialized areas of knowledge, the number of people who can really make sense of change and its implications will become smaller and smaller, leaving the vast majority to really not know how anything works, but still feeling the effects of that change. What fills the vaccum are all kinds of wacky conspiracy theories that pretend to explain how it all works to people with little or no grounding in the actual science or technical knowledge, but that give them a sense of control over their world.

  14. 14.

    WereBear

    May 11, 2021 at 9:16 am

    @jonas: OMG, that is so true.

  15. 15.

    sab

    May 11, 2021 at 9:23 am

    @Ohio Mom: You have a valid point also. I know someone here in Akron who had to go to Bucyrus to get her shots. I know someone else who drove from Akron to Coshocton.

    Why are appointments so readily available in rural Ohio and so unavailable in urban Ohio? The conspiracy side of me wants to say that rural is where GOP voters are so that’s where they sent the vaccine doses. But in my heart I know they sent the not-enough doses all over the state, and the rural guys didn’t much want them.

  16. 16.

    MattF

    May 11, 2021 at 9:26 am

    @sab: Similarly here in Maryland. The mass vaccination sites in the suburban DC area are not near the urban centers. Go figure.

  17. 17.

    beef

    May 11, 2021 at 9:26 am

    @jonas:

    I think HG Wells had prior art on that one.

  18. 18.

    Wapiti

    May 11, 2021 at 9:34 am

    @jonas: I guess that’s been true of all of humanity’s existence? We make up stories to explain what we don’t comprehend.

  19. 19.

    Matt McIrvin

    May 11, 2021 at 9:35 am

    @sab: Right. It’s easy to get the impression that most adults who are still unvaccinated are hardcore antivaxxers, but they’re not. Most are people who only got access to vaccines over the past 3 weeks or so and are low-risk enough that vaccination is not a top-of-mind priority. Making walk-in vaccination easier for them, especially on weekends (our regular town clinics only run weekdays from 10-2), and nudging them in various friendly ways will help. Also, some are low-info people who are susceptible to antivaxxer lies but not necessarily unconvinceable.

    I’m still 9 days away from my appointment for the second shot, and I jumped on this ASAP.

  20. 20.

    Fair Economist

    May 11, 2021 at 9:35 am

    @jonas: What’s surprising about the current trends in wacky conspiracy theories is that they don’t involve things difficult for normal people to understand. “There’s no DNA in RNA vaccines” is easy enough to understand. The concepts and facts are taught in high school biology. But tens of millions are falling for the flimflam.

  21. 21.

    Rocks

    May 11, 2021 at 9:39 am

    @Punchy: Lack of consequences that are obviously caused by their ignorance.

  22. 22.

    Kristine

    May 11, 2021 at 9:40 am

    @MattF: Oh–thanks for this link.

  23. 23.

    MattF

    May 11, 2021 at 9:41 am

    @Matt McIrvin: Low-risk, and the risk is decreasing. It’s effort vs. benefit at this point, so the way to goose vaccination rates is to lower barriers.

  24. 24.

    VOR

    May 11, 2021 at 9:43 am

    @sab:  But in my heart I know they sent the not-enough doses all over the state, and the rural guys didn’t much want them.

    It’s the same way in my state. I booked my first appointment a little over a month ago. All the available appointments were in rural areas, nothing in urban areas. I found an appointment about 40 miles away in a small town I had previously visited and felt lucky it was that close. I saw two Trump signs or flags on my first drive there but only one on the second drive – progress.

    We have a serious urban/rural split in my state and IMHO the Republicans have encouraged it over the last decade or so as a way of fostering grievances. The claim is the urban areas are sucking up money from the rural and spending it on boondoggles like light rail transit for THOSE PEOPLE. Studies have shown in fact the urban areas are subsidizing the rural areas.

  25. 25.

    WereBear

    May 11, 2021 at 9:46 am

    @Fair Economist: “There’s no DNA in RNA vaccines” is easy enough to understand. The concepts and facts are taught in high school biology.

     
    I see you did not go to a rural high school. I did, and 85% of the student body were thinking about getting some booty and how little they could regurgitate onto a test to get out of school as soon as possible.

    I believe this situation only got worse with No Child Left Behind.

  26. 26.

    WereBear

    May 11, 2021 at 9:47 am

    @VOR: Studies have shown in fact the urban areas are subsidizing the rural areas.

     
    Of course! But they are Republicans because they like being lied to.

  27. 27.

    JPL

    May 11, 2021 at 9:49 am

    Pamphlets made to look like a news bulletin have covered north Fulton suburbs the last few days with, lies about masks, vaccines and the election.   The local ABC station is trying to locate the source of funds from the misinformation.   It’s dangerous to say the least.   btw Just saying Marjorie Taylor Greene still lives in the area, and she is an Alpharetta mom.     I’m not sure what to do with my copy, but I’m not going to burn it to light my charcoal.   I’m afraid of the taint.

    link 

  28. 28.

    sherparick

    May 11, 2021 at 9:49 am

    @Punchy: ​
      They believe what they want to believe, and disregard the rest.

  29. 29.

    Punchy

    May 11, 2021 at 9:50 am

    @MattF: Viruses changing our DNA?  Yup and yup…they have the machinery to do so.  But the vaccine does not, never has.  So yes, these anti-vaxxers have a better chance at DNA alteration by NOT getting the vax and instead being invaded and mutated by the coronavirus.  Thats some sweet irony.

  30. 30.

    Nina

    May 11, 2021 at 9:56 am

    I think they’re sending proportionally equal amounts of vaccine to the different centers, but the desire to get vaccinated is much stronger if you live in an urban area and interact with strangers often. That usually corresponds to red/blue divides, but not necessarily always so.

    We live in Maryland, we drove two hours away to Salisbury to get my son vaccinated as early as possible. A friend has a 15 year old daughter with a comorbid condition, we took her along too. They didn’t even ask for ID so that worked great.

  31. 31.

    Roger Moore

    May 11, 2021 at 10:02 am

    @Punchy:

    How do these people live day-to-day so untethered to actual facts?

    They’ve outsourced their thinking.  Instead of deciding what to believe themselves, they let media personalities and religious leaders decide for them.

  32. 32.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    May 11, 2021 at 10:07 am

    @Punchy: How do these people live day-to-day so untethered to actual facts?

    Now you know how historians feel when they talk to normal people.  As one friend of my who teaches put it about  his intro to ancient history class.

    Student “So how did the Aliens build the Pyramids?”

    Professor “Did you pay attention to anything I said in class the last two months?”

  33. 33.

    Matt McIrvin

    May 11, 2021 at 10:10 am

    @MattF: That’s an interesting article in that it reveals that the reason the vaccine can’t alter your DNA actually is kind of fiddly and technical. Do human cells produce some reverse transcriptase? Yes, because of unrelated viral sequences hanging around in our genome. Could COVID-19 genes from an infection end up reverse-transcribed into our DNA? Yes, in principle, because of that. But for relatively technical reasons this process isn’t prone to reverse-transcribing the engineered mRNA from the vaccine.

    It’s frustrating in that the paper makes the theoretical prospect of DNA alteration from the vaccine just plausible enough for antivaxxers to seize on it.

  34. 34.

    Ohio Mom

    May 11, 2021 at 10:12 am

    Sab:

    Shots have been relatively easy to find in this corner of Ohio, at least for those of us who are on the right side of the digital divide and have cars and can get to where we want to go easily. I don’t know about those who don’t though, and I don’t doubt you about your end of the state.

    My friend who lives in Charlottesville, Virginia, had to drive almost two hours to get her first shot, then was able to find the second one in her neighborhood. It’s been a scramble in a lot of places for a lot of people.

    Meanwhile, because Ohio decided to prioritize adults with disability and because Hamilton County has a very strong county board of DD, my family was called by Ohio Son’s caseworker and invited in for our jabs (I had already gotten mine through the University of Cincinnati’s hospital system but Ohio Dad and Son took up her invitation).

    It will be interesting when the dust finally settles and the epidemiologists and other researchers comb through all the data and identify what caused the hold-ups, and why some geographic locations were better organized. This will be critical information for planning for the next pandemic.

  35. 35.

    randy khan

    May 11, 2021 at 10:13 am

    @Punchy:

     I asked my neighbor where in our bodies we store the reverse transcriptase enzymes necessary for said alteration, and he said he didnt know these science things.   But was ADAMANT that DNA change was certain.

    Ironically, one of the really great things about the mRNA vaccines is that your body sees the mRNA and immediately thinks “Great!  I can recycle the components of this to make new mRNA,” so it disappears completely after it does its job.

  36. 36.

    rikyrah

    May 11, 2021 at 10:14 am

    I just paid for Peanut’s Summer Camp. Without the vaccine, this would not be possible.???

    It will be the first time that Peanut will have socialization with her peer group in 16 months.

  37. 37.

    Eunicecycle

    May 11, 2021 at 10:16 am

    @sab: I had to go to Marion, OH, about 90 miles. I tried for over a month to get a local appointment and finally gave up. Almost all the other people getting their shots at the same time were not locals; there was one from Michigan and one from Pennsylvania!

  38. 38.

    sab

    May 11, 2021 at 10:25 am

    @Eunicecycle: Wow. Marion was about the most hard hit county in the state because of the prison. It’s amazing they had slots available. Or maybe the locals don’t have digital access to sign up?

    I agree with you about data needing to be analyzed about access after this. Masters or doctoral thesis/dissertation for our next Amy Acton?

  39. 39.

    Barbara

    May 11, 2021 at 10:27 am

    @Punchy: ​ I would probably say something really unfortunate like, “Do you even know what DNA is or does?”

  40. 40.

    Barbara

    May 11, 2021 at 10:29 am

    @rikyrah: ​ Rikyrah for the win! It looks increasingly likely that my son’s summer schedule will go forward as well, unlike last year.

  41. 41.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    May 11, 2021 at 10:29 am

    @jonas: I’d offer an alternative theory, this is like some Sci-fi fandom and these dimwits think they are arguing over  franchise lore fan theories. They just are looking for the explanation they think is the most awesome and don’t understand this has real world effects. (Argumentum ab mirantibus?)

  42. 42.

    sab

    May 11, 2021 at 10:30 am

    @Eunicecycle: I am so glad you finally got a shot. I remember you commenting about your frustration early on.

  43. 43.

    M31

    May 11, 2021 at 10:32 am

    I wish these people who ‘know’ so much about DNA would think about how viruses actually work —

    “Let me hijack your own cells to make more copies of ME” is way scarier and creepier than any of these vague conspiracy theories.

  44. 44.

    Barbara

    May 11, 2021 at 10:35 am

    @M31: Seriously, isn’t it though?  The concept that your body has been hijacked by a foreign invader seems way scarier than a shot that gives your body the “super power” to beat that foreign invader to a pulp.  Maybe someone gifted in comic book style art could come up with a few cels to illustrate the point.

  45. 45.

    Eunicecycle

    May 11, 2021 at 10:35 am

    @sab: Thanks! I finally found it thanks to a website someone posted on here, VaccineFinder, I think? There at least it listed the places that had vaccine, instead of trying to guess zip codes for the different drug store chains’ websites.

  46. 46.

    Ken

    May 11, 2021 at 10:48 am

    @VOR: Studies have shown in fact the urban areas are subsidizing the rural areas.

    I sometimes wish that one of our fine laboratories of democracy would legislate that no county, or perhaps no congressional district, could receive more state funds than they contribute. Then I remember that most of the money being moved around is for schools, and there’s no point punishing the kids to make a point.  Besides, the rural legislators would never vote for it since they know very well how the money flows.

  47. 47.

    Ohio Mom

    May 11, 2021 at 11:02 am

    Eunicecycle:

    You wouldn’t think creating databases of vaccine availibility snd sites would be much of a challenge but apparently it was.

    Way back in the beginning of March, when I set out to find myself a shot, the local board of health’s site was useless. It was a list of places you could call to be put on hold indefinitely.

    After a bit of that, I took a chance on checking my regular patient portal with a big local health system and that had simple directions that worked. As soon as the batch came in, I could pull up a calendar that showed when slots were open that I could chose among.

    Then it was endless emails and texts reminding me not to miss my drive-through appointment. But for people who don’t have a PCP and don’t have a patient portal they know how use, that wouldn’t be an option.

    I checked my board of health’s
    site the other day out of curiousity and it has been completely revamped. It is SO clear and SO user-friendly, with detailed listings of walk-in pop-up sites every day of the week: “XYZ farmer’s market at (address) on Wednesday, May 12 between 1-5, J&J.”

    So many wheels have had to be reinvented!

  48. 48.

    Ramiah Ariya

    May 11, 2021 at 11:02 am

    This all, of course, if the variant spreading havoc here in India does not hit you, it seems. Yesterday, a WHO lady seems to have said that the Indian double mutant can evade vaccines and also re-infect. And it spreads through the air. It is stickier. Dog help us all, if that is the case.

  49. 49.

    bnateAZ

    May 11, 2021 at 11:03 am

    @Punchy: Beats me. The scarier thing to me is that you truly don’t need to be a scientist or understand human biology/physiology/immune system to know that vaccines cannot do this. You just need to have more than five brain cells that can fire off critical thinking neurons and maybe would need about 12 years on this Earth using modern medicine if I am being conservative…

  50. 50.

    Major Major Major Major

    May 11, 2021 at 11:07 am

    Better things are possible!

  51. 51.

    Major Major Major Major

    May 11, 2021 at 11:17 am

    @Ramiah Ariya:

    This all, of course, if the variant spreading havoc here in India does not hit you, it seems. Yesterday, a WHO lady seems to have said that the Indian double mutant can evade vaccines and also re-infect. And it spreads through the air. It is stickier. Dog help us all, if that is the case.

    We’ve definitely heard that song before. WaPo:

    “There is some available information to suggest some increased transmissibility of B.1.617,” Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical lead of the WHO’s coronavirus response, said at a news briefing Monday.

    Van Kerkhove referred to a preprint that suggested that antibodies from vaccines or infections with other variants might not be quite as effective against B.1.617, adding that more research was needed.

    “Even though there is increased transmissibility demonstrated by some preliminary studies, we need much more information about this virus variant and this lineage and all of the sub-lineages,” she said.

    Nature:

    Gupta’s team discovered that neutralizing antibodies generated by the vaccinated individuals were about 80% less potent against some of the mutations in B.1.617, although this would not render vaccination ineffective, he says.

    As with other variants that show decreased antibody response (e.g. South Africa), this probably doesn’t mean what it sounds like it means to our lay ears. In my mind it’s like, to pick a random thing, sperm counts going down–the topline numbers sound alarming but everything is still within normal human ranges.

  52. 52.

    Eunicecycle

    May 11, 2021 at 11:22 am

    @Ohio Mom: I read somewhere that the new government website used to be VaccineFinder or vaccinespotter, one of the ones created by people who just wanted to help. And now there’s a phone line the government (ie Biden administration) has created to get people appointments. It’s such a relief to have competent government again!

  53. 53.

    laura

    May 11, 2021 at 11:33 am

    @rikyrah: How wonderful – I hope she has all the good times fun and adventure that “Summer Camp” evokes. I’m certain you were on it at 8:00 on the dot.

  54. 54.

    Major Major Major Major

    May 11, 2021 at 11:43 am

    And here’s a short thread on vaccine efficacy for the India variant.

    Really important to note this. There may be the usual fears around B.1.617 because people will see a paper with "x-fold reduction in neutralizing antibodies" etc. Keep in mind that drop DOES NOT correspond even to reduced efficacy, let alone ability to prevent severe cases. https://t.co/brGi7XSrpr

    — zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) May 11, 2021

  55. 55.

    feebog

    May 11, 2021 at 11:44 am

    @Fair Economist:

    “There’s no DNA in RNA vaccines” is easy enough to understand. The concepts and facts are taught in high school biology. But tens of millions are falling for the flimflam.

    You think these morons were paying attention in High School biology class?

  56. 56.

    CaseyL

    May 11, 2021 at 11:52 am

    One of my friends is a long-time blues guitarist who has been in a number of local bands, and his latest iteration is playing this weekend, at an outdoor event. Only downside is, it’s way out in the sticks, so a long drive. But they expect to finish while it’s still light, so the drive home should be OK.

    I’m still dithering on whether to go, but that has little to do with fears of Covid. I’ve always been borderline reclusive, and this past year has reinforced that to the nth degree. But I’ll probably have a grand time, so I should go.

  57. 57.

    Shakti

    May 11, 2021 at 11:53 am

     

    @Punchy:

    How do these people live day-to-day so untethered to actual facts?

     

    Short answer: The actual “facts” do not comport with their view of the world. They are willing to accept any and all logical holes to preserve this worldview. That’s the only way I can make sense of it after over 1/2 my life seeing RWers talk, regardless of the level of their education. The ‘smarter’ ones just use $10 words and greater levels of intellectualization.

    Who was that unnamed Bush administration official sneering at members of the “reality based community?” Did we ever find out?

  58. 58.

    Jeffro

    May 11, 2021 at 11:59 am

    The combination of vaccinations and seasonality of social activity should give us a good chance over the summer to locally squash COVID to isolated clusters by the time the schools are open for the Academic 2021-2022 year.

    and thank the FSM for that, because thanks to the many, many morons in our midst, we sure as shit failed our ‘marshmallow test’ this time around.

    Covid-25 should be a blast!

  59. 59.

    Jeffro

    May 11, 2021 at 12:02 pm

    @WereBear:85% of the student body were thinking about getting some booty and how little they could regurgitate onto a test to get out of school as soon as possible.

    In fairness, at my suburban NoVA high school, the rate was more like 98%  ;)

  60. 60.

    MattF

    May 11, 2021 at 12:05 pm

    I suppose my citing Derek Lowe all the time is tiresome, but I’m not going to stop:

    We’re surrounded by moving, energy-shifting self-directed hunks of insanely complex nanotechnology, performing functions we don’t completely understand in ways we don’t completely understand. I’m talking about your cat, or your houseplant in the window. We ourselves are more of the same: a pile of ridiculously complicated interlocking systems that we absolutely don’t really understand, and the only reason that we can use the word “understand” (or any words at all) is because of even more insane emergent phenomena called “consciousness”, “intelligence”, and “language”. We wouldn’t believe that such creatures, such constructs, such staggering lurching heaps of molecular machinery were even possible if we weren’t ones ourselves. But since we are, we just don’t think about it much.

  61. 61.

    Ohio Mom

    May 11, 2021 at 12:15 pm

    Matt F:
    I don’t remember any other Derek Lowe quotes, I like this one.

  62. 62.

    MattF

    May 11, 2021 at 12:20 pm

    @Ohio Mom: I’ve been linking to his blog for detailed information on pretty much any COVID question.

  63. 63.

    smith

    May 11, 2021 at 12:20 pm

    We are also entering prime outdoor time where people are going to be naturally spread out and breathing in very well ventilated spaces. We won’t be sharing as much air.

    I’m not so sanguine about this. It was the prediction last year as well, but we got a summer surge in the Sunbelt, where people stay indoors to enjoy the AC in the summer. And the states that are lagging badly in vaccinations are exactly there.

  64. 64.

    What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?

    May 11, 2021 at 12:30 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Yeah I’m not a historian but made the mistake of arguing with some facebook “friends” about the Civil War and the fact that it was about slavery and they were all like nuh uh!

    And then I listed a selection of the probably 16 or so books I’ve read about the Civil War and said well why don’t you quiz me on the subject if you doubt my bona fides, and they’re all like, well, we’re not really into history and so don’t know enough about it to even quiz you.

    So then I’m like, I guess I’ve convinced you that since I know more about the Civil War that it was about slavery but nope. Nothing will change their minds about something they know next to nothing about. Not even someone who demonstrably does know something about it.

  65. 65.

    gbbalto

    May 11, 2021 at 12:30 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: No link

    ETA: Sorry, slow computer, see it now.

  66. 66.

    Major Major Major Major

    May 11, 2021 at 12:31 pm

    @gbbalto: Can you not see the tweet? https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1392137906362503171

  67. 67.

    chopper

    May 11, 2021 at 12:35 pm

    @Punchy:

    apparently there’s no difference between a small snippet of RNA corresponding to a gene or two and a full-blown retrovirus.

  68. 68.

    Ken

    May 11, 2021 at 12:38 pm

    @Ohio Mom: Try Derek Lowe’s “Things I Won’t Work With” series.  He injects a lot of humor into them. You wouldn’t think that chemicals that can burn concrete, asbestos, and water were that funny…

  69. 69.

    MattF

    May 11, 2021 at 12:39 pm

    @What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: I recall that during my freshman year in college, a freshman from Texas came back to the dorm one day with a stunned look. He’d just heard a history lecture about the American Civil War, and was gobsmacked. He said, “We called it ‘The War Between The States’, but it was a civil war.”

  70. 70.

    misterpuff

    May 11, 2021 at 12:45 pm

    @jonas:

     I forget who it was — possibly Carl Sagan — who predicted that as the world and our economy become more reliant on advanced technologies and highly specialized areas of knowledge, the number of people who can really make sense of change and its implications will become smaller and smaller, leaving the vast majority to really not know how anything works, but still feeling the effects of that change. What fills the vaccum are all kinds of wacky conspiracy theories that pretend to explain how it all works to people with little or no grounding in the actual science or technical knowledge, but that give them a sense of control over their world.

    SHORTER VERSION
    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

    And, of course, magic is arcane, mysterious, and almost always evil.

  71. 71.

    Wapiti

    May 11, 2021 at 12:48 pm

    Still looking for that exponential drop here in WA. We’re in our fourth spike, maybe on the downhill side. The cases and hospitalizations are not as bad as November-January, but worse than the first two spikes. Deaths are lower than the other 3 spikes. I wish I could blame it on the rural counties, but King County (Seattle+) has a curve similar to the state as a whole. The bright news is the last covid death in the county was May 2d.

  72. 72.

    artem1s

    May 11, 2021 at 12:50 pm

    @jonas:

    @Punchy:  I forget who it was — possibly Carl Sagan — who predicted that as the world and our economy become more reliant on advanced technologies and highly specialized areas of knowledge, the number of people who can really make sense of change and its implications will become smaller and smaller, leaving the vast majority to really not know how anything works,

    this has been an understood phenomenon in the Science Fiction world for a long time.

    “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Arthur C. Clarke

    We are living in an age where the majority of people no longer have the basic underlying knowledge to help them distinguish between science (technology) and magic.

    Imagine for a moment you are sitting in front a giant projection device.  On one screen there is a man telling you that invisible entities may invade your body and cause you serious health problems unless you follow a strict set of rituals to protect yourself.  And if enough people don’t follow the rituals in the right ways, the invisible entities might transform themselves and bring on an apocalyptic event so devastating that it could result in another dark age.

    On another screen there is a man telling you that an invisible entity is poisoning our air and if we don’t follow a strict set of rituals to reduce the presence of the invisible entity, it could bring on an apocalyptic event so devastating that it could result in ending all human life on earth as we know it.

    On third screen there is a man telling you that an invisible entity is going to transform the earth into a lovely garden where everyone lives forever and never dies.  Unless people don’t follow certain rituals in the right ways.  Then the invisible entity will bring on an apocalyptic event so devastating that it could result in an event so devastating that it will end all human life on earth.

    I have no idea what the tipping point is that allows some to distinguish the difference between scenarios one, two and three.  And identify which are scientifically plausible and which are merely magical thinking.  And I can’t explain to those who believe one over the other why their thinking is broken and dangerous.

    I do know that if I had seen someone walking down the street with an iPhone in 1970, I would have expected Michael Rennie to be unleashing a vindictive Gort at any moment.  But today, that scenario does not make me think of aliens with advanced tech from another planet.

  73. 73.

    Barney

    May 11, 2021 at 12:52 pm

    No, it’s better than exponential decay. In exponential decay, you lose a steady fraction of the value in a fixed time period – eg a decrease from 80 to 40 in a week, then from 40 to 20 in a week, then 20 to 10 etc. In the given figures, the time to lose 10k (ie a fixed amount, but an increasing fraction of the remaining value) is happening in shorter and shorter times.

  74. 74.

    smith

    May 11, 2021 at 12:53 pm

    @artem1s: And you have to remember that  fundamentalist religion preconditions people to believe it’s  magic.

  75. 75.

    Cameron

    May 11, 2021 at 12:56 pm

    Once again, Florida leads the way in resisting Faucifascism!  https://www.rawstory.com/key-west-mask-rules/

  76. 76.

    MattF

    May 11, 2021 at 12:58 pm

    @Barney: There’s a transition point in density between contagion-that-spreads and contagion-that-stays-local. The critical density for that transition will vary from place to place, but one can hope that it’s happening now in many places.

  77. 77.

    Roger Moore

    May 11, 2021 at 1:02 pm

    @sab:

    Marion was about the most hard hit county in the state because of the prison. It’s amazing they had slots available. Or maybe the locals don’t have digital access to sign up?

    It’s possible many of the locals were vaccinated through work.  I know that here in California, there’s been a major effort to vaccinate both prisoners and guards because disease can spread so easily in prisons.  It’s worked very well, too; the state is reporting there are currently no active cases among inmates in state prisons.

  78. 78.

    Almost Retired

    May 11, 2021 at 1:20 pm

    It’s rather remarkable that Los Angeles County went from the worst earlier this year to the best at present.  My youngest spawn has a temporary job doing testing and vaxxing with Sean Penn’s CORE organization, and they’re about to transition to mobile at-home vaxxing soon.  In the meantime, the County set up free vaccination clinics at three major Metro stops in South LA and adjacent suburbs, in low-income communities where rates are lagging.  That and near 100 mask compliance (anecdotal observation) brought us to the point where I had trouble getting a restaurant reservation in Venice on Saturday night. Indoors.

    Contrast that with my experience on my recent road trip, where a store owner in Amarillo, Texas barked at me to “take off that Goddamn mask.”

  79. 79.

    Ruckus

    May 11, 2021 at 1:22 pm

    @Punchy:

    Breathing is autonomic and hunger pretty much takes care of the intake part. So the rest is how healthy do you need to be? Today food is relatively easy to get, and air is cleaner than it has been in decades. That leaves healthcare. We’re trying to make that available for everyone. That leaves stopping irrational hate and death. And that is a tough road.

  80. 80.

    J R in WV

    May 11, 2021 at 1:23 pm

    @What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: 

    Yeah I’m not a historian but made the mistake of arguing with some facebook “friends” about the Civil War and the fact that it was about slavery and they were all like nuh uh!​

    You could quote the only section of the CSA “constitution” that was different from the US constitution, which spells out that there is no way for members of the CSA to make slavery illegal.

    It’s pretty cut and dried pro-slavery, and there isn’t a single word in it about any state’s rights besides no right to ban slavery~!~

    So yeah, it was about state’s rights, but not in a good way, in the worst possible way. They took away the right to ban slavery, that was the only state’s right that mattered to the slavers.

    And Texas rebelled against the Mexican government because Mexico banned slavery — that was the noble cause the famous slavers died for at the Alamo — slavery, the freedom to enslave people.

    Then they did it again a couple of decades later against the US government, because they could see the writing on the wall about slavery in the US. Nothing good about the CSA or the people who still defend the CSA. Slavers still today. Fuq those people~!!~

  81. 81.

    Brachiator

    May 11, 2021 at 1:30 pm

    The combination of vaccinations and seasonality of social activity should give us a good chance over the summer to locally squash COVID to isolated clusters by the time the schools are open for the Academic 2021-2022 year.

    This is a very hopeful statement. We can use the summer to our advantage as part of an active strategy to deal with the virus. This, in combination with vaccinations.

    I hope that people get the message and get with the program.

  82. 82.

    Brachiator

    May 11, 2021 at 1:47 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    I know that here in California, there’s been a major effort to vaccinate both prisoners and guards because disease can spread so easily in prisons. It’s worked very well, too; the state is reporting there are currently no active cases among inmates in state prisons.

    I don’t know how this was ever controversial or a matter of doubt. In the beginning of the pandemic, enclosed social spaces like prisons and nursing homes were hotbeds of infection. There was even an early story about state prisoners (maybe Chino?) being transferred to another facility where there were few Covid infections and causing an outbreak.

    Nursing home patients and staff needed the vaccine. So, too, prisoners and guards. A no brainer.

  83. 83.

    Freemark

    May 11, 2021 at 1:50 pm

    @What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: I’ve literally given people copies of the articles of secession from the various states and asked them to find where it indicates they seceded for what they are claiming they seceded for. Funny, no takers.

  84. 84.

    Gravenstone

    May 11, 2021 at 2:06 pm

    @Baud: Hopefully the edited DNA makes them smarter…

  85. 85.

    Gravenstone

    May 11, 2021 at 3:16 pm

    @Ken: You wouldn’t think that chemicals that can burn concrete, asbestos, and water were that funny…

    It’s all fun and games until you get some on you. Ask me how I know…

  86. 86.

    What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?

    May 11, 2021 at 3:28 pm

    @J R in WV: @Freemark: 

    Yeah I did mention in the argument what the Articles of Secession for various States said but…they just ignore the evidence or accuse me of only reading the “NAACP” version of history and, like I said, nothing factual will change their minds.

  87. 87.

    Matt McIrvin

    May 11, 2021 at 3:47 pm

    @Brachiator: People saw it as a moral issue, the usual desire to heap potentially deadly punishments on prisoners–it wasn’t fair that “bad people” like prisoners would get scarce vaccine before “good people”.

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