This is just a quick PSA, since I guess we haven’t had one. The election to recall Governor Gavin Newsom is coming up! It will be on September 14th, and ballots start going out August 16th.
You can vote by mail or in person.
For voting by mail: If you’re registered to vote, you will receive a mail-in ballot at the address you have registered with the state. Be sure to sign and date your election envelope before sending it back. Drop your completed ballot off at any U.S. Postal Service mailbox, or at the post office. There will also be ballot drop-off locations available in your county. Check with your county’s election office for details.
For in-person voting: Some counties have in-person voting sites that will open Sept. 4. Many also offer curbside ballot drop-off. Again, check with your county’s election office for details.
There are two questions on the ballot.
- “Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?” Yes or no.
- Then, there’s a list of 46 candidates who could succeed Newsom if he is recalled. Voters can choose one.
These are counted in a weird way! If the first question succeeds, whoever gets the most votes on the second question will become governor. Currently ahead in the polls at 18% is Larry Elder, a conservative talk-show host whose only deflection from Trumpism is that he doesn’t think the election was stolen. The Newsom campaign says you should leave the second question blank, which is uh… huh? I get that there are no high profile Dems on the ballot, but I think this guy is right on the money:
Dr. Isaac Hale, a former pollster who is currently a postdoctoral scholar at UC Santa Barbara’s Blum Center and an expert on the Newsom recall, said some Democrats could instead opt to pursue a harm reduction approach.
“I do think some highly engaged Democrats will engage in harm reduction and will pick the Republican candidate they perceive as most moderate, or perhaps some will even pick the Republican they think is least likely to win re-election in 2022,” he said. “Of course, then you’re gambling on what that unelectable person could do in a year, so more may opt for picking the most moderate candidate.”
Most agree that the most moderate Republican candidate at the bottom of the ballot is former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who won two terms in a blue city and is the only major candidate to date who has submitted multiple detailed policy proposals on issues ranging from homelessness to taxes to restaurant relief.
Vote your conscience, I guess, but I know what I would do–everything I could to not subject the most populous state to Larry Elder’s ‘leadership’.
trollhattan
I’ll agree with Dr. Hale, even if it’s a dangerous gambit it’s important to water down the value of every Republican vote. Settling on the “who?” is the tricky bit.
schrodingers_cat
Why didn’t California change this dumpster fire of recalling governors after what happened to Gray Davis.
Major Major Major Major
@trollhattan: As I recall, Faulconer was pretty okay for a Republican.
@schrodingers_cat: because it is ungovernable
Fair Economist
According to polling via Wiki, the leading Dem and current only significant competitor to Elder is Paffrath.
Honus
So the next governor of California could be a guy with 18% approval of the minority party, in an overwhelmingly blue state. Also, no policy proposals, or relevant experience, to run the state with one of the ten kargest economies in the world.
Our country is a bad joke.
TheOtherHank
And I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that one of California’s Senators is 157 years old and if she croaks before the next election the governor gets to appoint her successor.
PhoenixRising
Dissertations are going to be written on how The Wrong Kevin got elected Governor of California, is my fear.
Patricia Kayden
@schrodingers_cat: That’s exactly what I was wondering. Why does California allow Republicans to erase election results by holding recalls every time a Democrat is Governor? This is ridiculous. Why aren’t Democrats recalling DeathSantis?
lowtechcyclist
So who are the Democrats that are running to replace Newsom?
ETA: At least one of them would have to be pretty decent, right?
Puddinhead
No ability for a write-in for the second question? That would allow the “no” voters to write in Newsom. I guess the ballot question writers were too smart to fall for that?
Scout211
Thank you, MMMM! I have been hoping for someone to front page this.
As I wrote downstairs:
Stories in the local news like this are full of Newsom’s mistakes or missteps but there are zero stories on any of the other candidates and what they may or may not bring to the office of Governor. That right there is exactly like Davis’s recall. All of the other candidates do not even have to campaign, they just rely on the negative stories about Newsom. There seems to be no scrutiny on any candidate, except for Newsom. Sigh.
And to add, since I am in a red county (Calaveras), it seems Elder is spending money on targeted ads because his mug is on all my pages. I see no ads for Newsom or against the recall but that may be because of my location.
Almost Retired
@schrodingers_cat: It’s a good question. If I remember my 4th Grade California history correctly, the recall procedure is in the state Constitution, and an amendment would require a 2/3 vote followed by a ballot initiative. In other words, it’s a pain in the ass to change.
The Moar You Know
@schrodingers_cat: it’s part of the state constitution. Not amendable.
As a native Californian and native San Diegan, Falconer’s OK Not great but OK. Larry Elder is a fucking psycho. Not surprised he’s “leading”.
Incidentally, we’ve had 52 recall attempts against sitting governors in CA history. Pretty much all of them. The only one that succeeded is Gray Davis.
Newsom should never have been elected governor. He was a catastrophe as SF mayor, he has been a catastrophe all his life, and yet has managed to fail upwards. He wants very much to be president. That can’t be allowed to happen.
I would like nothing more than to see him go, but not at the cost of handing the state to a Republican even for a week, never mind a year.
Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix
@The Moar You Know: Look on the bright side – he ain’t Andrew Cuomo.
Almost Retired
owlbrick
@Puddinhead: The sitting governor is explicitly disqualified from being a write-in for the second part if the first part passes. A write-in for Newsom doesn’t count.
Major Major Major Major
@Almost Retired: California amends their constitution very frequently with bare-majority plebiscites. Legislature referral is only one way to get it on the ballot.
ETA: or is there some stupid double-secret amendment process for this particular thing?
Dante’s First
I am genuinely baffled by both the Governor’s recommendation to leave the second question blank and the suggestion that ANY Republican would be a good choice under the circumstances. Why shouldn’t the second question be answered by writing in the name of the Lt. Governor, Eleni Kounalakis?
The Moar You Know
@Puddinhead: The writers of the recall provision in the state constitution were too smart for that, apparently. The subject of the recall cannot declare as a candidate for the recall election. And, if I’m not mistaken (and I could be) that person can’t ever run for governor again, which is why Davis never tried to get his job back.
Peale
@lowtechcyclist: They opted not to do that this time. I think they should have just asked one of the state senators to change her name to Dorothy D. Democrat and put her on the ballot as a fall back. But they decided that one of the problems with Grey Davis’ recall was that they all got behind Bustmante as a fall back. So this time, I think they were hoping to just win the recall with the Democrats knowing that there was no other choice for them.
Major Major Major Major
@Dante’s First: According to one of the articles I linked to, no Dem is polling above 1%.
Scout211
https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/08/democrats-need-a-write-in-candidate-for-the-recall-election/
This is an interesting take but it is likely too late and most prominent Dem pols will likely not throw their hat in the ring, especially now that the recall vote is close.
The Dangerman
Time to start an Internet meme that Larry Elder is Q. I assume that would inspire people to vote.
The Moar You Know
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix: You’re right: in addition to sleeping with his entire staff back in his SF days, he also had a raging drug habit going on, which hopefully explains his marriage to Kimberly Gullifoyle for you all.
The only difference between him and Cuomo is that he got consent.
I’m really not a fan, if you couldn’t tell. I did vote for him. I will vote no on the recall. I will vote for him again if he survives this. But he is not fit for public office and I have no qualms about saying so.
Matt McIrvin
It occurs to me that what is in Newsom’s best interest to recommend, and what in Democrats’ best interest to do, might not be the same.
owlbrick
@The Moar You Know: I wasn’t thrilled about Newsom at first either, but he’s been far better as governor than I expected. His focus on proactive social services and environmental policy coupled with his overall positive handling of the pandemic (far from ideal, but also somewhat better than I feared, and far better than the alternative) have shown him to be a steady, overall progressive force, who is actually doing more than his predecessor to make the state responsive and responsible for its people. Brown did a great job of turning the state around, but Newsom is actually leading it forward. Every one of the Republicans on the ballot, Faulconer included, would turn all that backwards; not to mention the threat of being able to appoint a successor if something happens to a sitting senator. And the while the few Democrats on the ballot are better than nothing, even the leading one of them is a youtube personality who advocates using the National Guard to move the homeless.
Dante’s First
As a follow up to my own comment, it does seem that the Governor is only thinking of himself and doesn’t want to lose the top spot but the risk of having a new Governor installed by a minority of a minority of the electorate could be catastrophic at this juncture.
trollhattan
@Dante’s First:
FWIW my sample ballot has a blank rectangle bottom right, with a fill-in oval. It’s unmarked but I’m guessing it’s there for a write-in.
Interesting that the candidates aren’t alpha-sorted. It’s not easy to find someone in particular.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat: That’s my question too.
I think there should be a question on the 2024 ballot about ending gubernatorial recalls like this. They are crazy and expensive and don’t serve voters well, at all.
California has enough on its plate, with a pandemic and wildfires and everything else that affects such an enormous state. They cannot afford this level of unpredictability. It is destabilizing. It is the opposite of “good government.”
Get rid of them.
Peale
@owlbrick: yep. If they get governor elder, we need to hope that nothing happens for two years to Senator Ancient, or your looking at Senator Stephen Miller or Donald Trump Jr. if you’re lucky.
FelonyGovt
I can’t bring myself to do anything but vote no on the recall, and make sure everyone I know does the same.
I got my sample ballot this week, as did the other 2 people in my household. What a waste of money that could be used to house the homeless or alleviate the drought or…
trollhattan
@Dante’s First:
It’s the CA Democratic Party suggesting leaving it blank. Guessing they feel snakebit from Arnold because voters found the process confusing.
Jinchi
It’s ridiculous that we have a recall system in which an elected governor can get 49.9% of the vote and be kicked out, only to be replaced by some random idiot who gets 3% of the vote. I thought the whole “top-two” ballot process was created to avoid problems like this.
As for Newsom, I absolutely support the guy, but his campaign is working in the interests of Newsom, not the party or the state. He’s banking on people voting against recall because they’re terrified of the alternative. I doubt that will be a real motivator. It slightly increases his odds, but dramatically increases the odds we’ll have some mini-Trump tearing up the state in the middle of the pandemic. It also makes it more likely that every elected Democrat in the future will face recall, because its a no-lose gamble for Republicans.
Not voting on the second question is a stupid idea that just increases the strength of the right-wing trolls. The smart move would have been to put the Lt Governor, or another well respected Democrat on the ticket so we had a backup option. “Strategic” voting is a fool’s game, since we don’t all agree on the smartest strategy. Personally I won’t vote for anyone who still calls themself a Republican. That leaves me with a list of 8 Democrats I’ve never heard of before.
Dante’s First
@Major Major Major Major: thanks
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
There’s no danger in voting “no” and then picking the least bad candidate. The dangerous gambit is trying to convince people not to vote on question 2 at all, since it lets the Republicans control the election if the recall succeeds.
Steeplejack (phone)
Meanwhile, things are going swimmingly at Mike Lindell’s cyber symposium.
Cacti
@owlbrick: Dianne Feinstein seems to have adopted the Ruth Bader Ginsburg “I’ll just live forever” strategy.
Thankfully, nothing ever goes wrong with that.
Major Major Major Major
@trollhattan: studies suggest that earlier-alphabetical-order candidates have an advantage so California randomizes theirs.
Jinchi
@trollhattan:
How does their strategy make any sense?
PaulWartenberg
I did the math.
If a little more than 50 percent vote YES on the Recall, that then leaves the choice between 46 possible Republican candidates.
It’s possible that the candidates get all bunched together to where they each could get just 2 percent of the vote, which would be 92 percent of the 100 percent available.
Meaning that in a very improbable scenario – but still mathematically possible – a replacement candidate could WIN the recall with just 3 (plus change) percent of the vote.
HOW THE HELL IN ANY ELECTORAL SYSTEM IS 3 PERCENT A WINNING NUMBER???
Okay, that’s an unlikely scenario. The way things shake out, there’s likely going to be someone winning with around 15 percent of the recall vote. Still, that’s an insanely unrepresentative number and could well be more UNpopular than Newsome ever was.
owlbrick
@Dante’s First: The last time around, they did a number of campaign post-mortems, which showed that Bustamente’s campaign seriously muddied the waters for the voters, and caused increased confusion in an already confusing process. A great many people ended up thinking that their vote for a replacement would only be counted if they voted yes on the recall, and fearing that the recall had enough momentum to pass, they voted yes/Bustamente. The Bustamente campaign tried to clear it up, but the message was lost in the noise of the general chaos of the bizarre special election clownshow. This time around, the Democrats are trying to keep on message, that the only thing that matters is defeating the recall. It’s not just Newsom trying to save his job; the entire state party is very intentionally staying away from the second part of the ballot. If they get a high enough turnout that it would allow a Democrat to win, they will defeat the recall anyway, so stay on message and just defeat the recall without confusion.
Roger Moore
@lowtechcyclist:
Wrong. The California Democratic party has decided for an all-or-nothing strategy by discouraging any Democrat who cares about getting support from the party apparatus from running. The result is that the people with (D) after their names are a bunch of nobodies. There’s not a single elected official amongst them.
trollhattan
I’ll just leave this here.
He endorsed Trump in 2020. Least-worse is still awful.
Jinchi
@Cacti:
Hadn’t even thought about that.
So there’s a small chance that Newsom could be replaced by a right-winger who then might be in the position to name a right-winger to the Senate if anything incapacitates our 88 year-old Senator.
Cacti
@trollhattan: I would also disagree strongly with the sentiment previously expressed that San Diego is a blue city.
It’s purple at best.
SFBayAreaGal
@Scout211: I’ve seen his ads where my sister lives. Notice he doesn’t indicate he is Republican in his televised ads
owlbrick
@lowtechcyclist: there are only two Dems who even show up on the polling radar. One is a Hollywood character actor with no political experience. The other is a 29 year old youtube personality who advocates using the National Guard to move the homeless.
trollhattan
@owlbrick:
An important difference from the Davis recall is we are now in statewide ballot-by-mail, making voting far easier and easier to remember, since ballots will arrive mid-month.
Last time one had to go to the polls unless they were already voting by mail. I don’t believe we yet had established permanent vote-by-mail, rather, it had to be requested each time.
Leslie
Thanks for this. I had no idea that the majority vote-getter would automatically become the next governor. What a fustercluck.
I’m in Los Angeles County, in a purplish district, and am also seeing massive ads for Elder and no one else, and no ads for/against the recall. I have, however, been contacted by Democratic groups working against the recall. They appear to be focused pretty exclusively on reaching out to registered / actively voting Democrats, which makes sense, I suppose.
So … voting for the San Diego Republican seems like the least-bad option under the circumstances. Sigh.
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
The candidates are never sorted alphabetically. There’s strong evidence that the person listed first on the ballot gets an automatic boost; I assume it’s bigger the longer the list of candidates and the less name recognition anyone on the ballot has. To combat this, California has an elaborate procedure for randomizing the positions of the candidates on the ballot, including having different places have different candidates at the top. It makes things more confusing but also more fair.
FelonyGovt
The Democratic strategy seems to be to tie the recall heavily (and accurately) to the Republicans and Trump. Not a bad idea; hopefully enough Dems will be willing to check the “no” box and put the damn ballot in the mail.
Jinchi
@PaulWartenberg:
To be clear. This is not a partisan ballot.
8 are listed as Democrats.
21 are listed as Republicans.
2 are listed as Green Party.
1 Libertarian.
9 Independents
Major Major Major Major
@Leslie: plurality, not majority (just to clarify, you obviously got the spirit right)
trollhattan
@Roger Moore: This is great news for Joel Ventresca!
Poe Larity
@Steeplejack (phone): Larry Johnson was CIA. Yes, THAT Larry.
Also is the guy behind the Biden laptops, claimed he was friends with the computer store guy in NH or wherever.
Citizen Alan
@Cacti: My nightmare scenario is Gov. Larry Elder appointing the replacement to the recently deceased Sen. Feinstein in time to throw the Senate to the GOP before Reconciliation can be passed.
owlbrick
@trollhattan: and thank the gods for that… I only hope the Dem campaign efforts are being strategically timed to coincide with the arrival of the mail-in ballots in a mega-blitz to get out the vote, because I’ve seen almost absolutely nothing so far, aside from the occasional fundraising email amongst all the other political fundraising spam I get as a result of prior donating.
Major Major Major Major
The state Dems are fatally overthinking this, right? If voters can handle ranked choice they can handle this.
Mike in NC
I think I noted a while back that a local paper started to feature Larry Elder’s deranged syndicated columns, but dropped them after a few weeks. Probably due to readers’ complaining.
Kelly
Democracy in America is a Rube Goldberg contraption at all levels. I didn’t realize this until Bush v Gore. I was in my mid-40s, followed politics, read history but somehow didn’t see how haphazard our government structures are.
Around 15~20 years ago Oregon voters more or less repealed our land use planning laws then 2 years later in the next election put the laws back. Oppsie!
Leslie
@Leslie: Hadn’t seen trollhattan’s comment about Faulconer when I posted. Ugh.
Edit: spelled the nym wrong, sorry.
trollhattan
@owlbrick:
During my incessant Olympics watching I saw a lot of Liz Warren warning Californians not to fall for the Trump Party trickery and vote no on the recall.
Other than that I’ve not seen much, if anything pro or against. Yet. Expecting a blizzard once ballots are mailed.
Jinchi
@lowtechcyclist:
Unfortunately there’s no guarantee that anyone listed as ‘Democrat’ is actually a Democrat.
I wouldn’t be surprised to discover that several of these candidates were sponsored by Republicans, just to avoid the possibility that voters would check the one name with the ‘D’ beside it.
Roger Moore
@Major Major Major Major:
Possibly, possibly not. As I understand it, the post-mortem from the Gray Davis recall suggested that voters found the whole process confusing, and apparently a sizeable chunk of people thought their vote on the replacement would only count if they voted yes on the recall question. Because of that, they’re trying to force the issue by not having any attractive candidates on the ballot, so voters will feel compelled to vote no. I think it’s a bad strategy, but I’m not 100% sure about that. It may be that the process is so badly designed that there’s no good strategy.
Citizen Alan
@Jinchi: Per wiki, I noticed one of the announced “Dems” ran as a Green during the 2002 recall.
VFX Lurker
I wrote four Postcards to Voters in California last night. I’ll write more tonight.
I’ll also vote NO on the recall and drop my ballot into the closest secure ballot dropbox as soon as I can. BallotTrax says my ballot got sent out Monday; I’m just waiting for my ballot to appear in my mailbox.
The Moar You Know
@Cacti: San Diegan here. It’s all about “where in San Diego?”
My town is blue with some shades of purple, same as most of the rich towns/communities on the ocean. Seven miles north of me, it’s blood red all the way to the county border. The actual city of San Diego is quite blue; the issue is that the county, especially the eastern part, is not.
Scout211
@Major Major Major Major:
I hope you are correct, that the Dem majority will all vote no on recall. But the state does not have ranked-choice voting right now (except for in local races in certain cities) so we can’t assume that the electorate has passed that test. LOL
https://www.fairvote.org/where_is_ranked_choice_voting_used
trollhattan
@Roger Moore:
Bustamante did actively campaign and I think (cautiously) it’s an improvement to not have a high-profile Dem campaigning for votes this time. What I wonder is whether they can still stump for the No on Recall campaign and avoid similar confusion. Turnout is the key.
Here’s where I might note we don’t really have high-profile Dems other than the VP and Nancy Smash, but I won’t.
The Moar You Know
@Jinchi: That’s a real thing here. We got bit hard by that in the last school board election. The “D” which wasn’t dropped out three days before the election, throwing it to the guy who got 30% of the vote. She was paid, that took a year to come out. Not a fucking thing we could do about it.
Mer
San Diegan here. Kevin Faulconer is mayor McFailure. He did NOTHING to stop the Chargers from leaving-his actions will likely have us lose Comic Con. He is as worthless and spineless as they come-beholden to his funders-the hotel lobby. He was a terrible terrible mayor. I get that he seems “moderate”-he is awful. I know he might be better than Larry Elder but no just no.
trollhattan
Hey, some good news.
Nora Lenderbee
As a California resident for 34 years (!), I am so fucking sick of this bullshit.
Just had to get that off my chest.
I’m also fucking sick of having to teach basic writing skills to people who presented themselves and were hired as experienced senior technical writers. They can’t write their way out of a paper bag. They seem to think their job is just to reformat whatever jargon falls out of an engineer’s mouth, grammar mistakes and all. No wonder so many engineers think tech writers are idiots. I should get two salaries for doing their job as well as my own.
Roger Moore
@Mer:
Great. Who should we vote for, then? Because leaving question 2 blank is like a vote for Larry Elder.
TriassicSands
Honus, the master of understatement.
But, but, but what about “American exceptionalism?” Well, that is a major contributor to why the U.S. is a joke. We’ve existed in a bubble of delusion for more than two centuries. The Constitution, rather than being some kind of great document is now an outdated mess¹.
We’re a country founded on racism, slavery, sexism, theft of land, and abrogating treaties. But the quality of our country and system rests largely on the quality of our citizenry and electorate, which gets worse every year.
¹ Which can’t be fixed because one of the two dominant political parties is an authoritarian fascist mob whose members are — overwhelmingly — mindless cretins.
misterpuff
@owlbrick:
The Dems are running an ad featuring Professor Senator Warren linking the recall to other GOP voter suppression (and outright negation) and she’s says the way to stop it is vote NO. But that’s it, no suggestion what to do with Part 2.
This ad is running obviously on local news spots but prominently early on all the sportsball broadcasts (Dodgers and Angels) and was running locally here in LA during the Olympics, so they must catch a lot of eyeballs.
I haven’t seen polling recently.
trollhattan
@Nora Lenderbee:
That’s pretty funny.
Did tech writing/editing for two major firms over fifteen years. It’s a battlefield out there. Lord, do I ever loathe the eternal hunt for billable hours (for myself, for my peeps) almost as much as I hate project managers who kinda don’t have budget to do what needs done. Which is unpossible at the penultimate step in report prep.
The end.
Jinchi
Not sure I believe that post-mortem.
Gray Davis was pretty unpopular at the time. He hit 65% disapproval that year and only 44% voted to keep him. Bustamente wasn’t his problem.
If anything, the opportunity to vote for the Terminator did him in. Schwartzenegger got 200,000 more votes than Davis did: close to a solid majority in a campaign with 135 candidates.
Jinchi
I’m curious what the other Californians in this comment section are planning on doing for the 2nd question.
Honestly, I have no clue who any of these candidates are.
William D
San Diego county resident (not city), my observation is that Kevin Faulconer was an average (mediocore) Republican mayor who, following his party base, has run away from any past criticisms of Trump/Trumpism. However, I will probably vote for him anyway (sigh) for harm reduction reasons after voting no on recall.
[fun fact: Kevin’s election of mayor was enabled by Mayor Bob Filner’s sex harrassment implosion ala-Cuomo]
In hindsight, perhaps a better strategy for Dems would have been to have the lieutenant governor on the ballot and have him coordinate his campaign with Newsom — campaigning against the recall but voting for him as an insurance policy. Logically, the constitution should be amended to have the lieutenant governor automatically become governor in the event of a recall to avoid having someone become governor with twenty percent (or less) of the vote. But logic only goes so far….
Jinchi
@trollhattan:
Good news.
I seem to remember Texas Republicans dealing with problems like that by stretching centrally located Austin’s congressional districts to the southern and western borders of the state.
trollhattan
Re, turnout. Seems pretty important.
Left out are the super-important “decline to state” party voters, who outnumber Republicans.
No party preference:
Likely to vote 46% yes (on recall), 50% no, 4% undecided
Total registered voters 34% yes, 47% no 20% undecided
Clearly, if you can get more Dems and no-party voters to cast ballots, you can win this.
Scout211
@Jinchi:
My husband and I will definitely vote for someone on question 2. However, we will take our time and do as much research as we can on each candidate before we do so.
Larry Elder is a hard no, but the rest are unknown to us right now.
TriassicSands
@Roger Moore:
It looks like it doesn’t matter whom you vote for, since Democrats have no damage mitigating strategy. or do they? They appear to be putting all of their eggs in the “No” basket.
I have a good friend in California who has always been a big fan of Newsom. However, watching from afar without following him closely the way I do my own governor, I must admit I’m not impressed. One thing no Democrat should ever display in our current environment is a sense of personal entitlement and privilege, and Newsom’s French Laundry antics made that an indelible impression, especially for people who don’t follow him more closely. In other words most Californians.
It would be tragic if Newsom, whatever his faults, were replaced by any Republican, but another “celebrity” governor would be particularly awful. Not being in California, I don’t know what Newsom’s recall strategy is, but just leaving question #2 blank only sounds like a good idea if you’ve mounted a hugely effective get out the Democratic “Vote No on #1” campaign. Has Newsom done that?
Jinchi
@William D:
That’s my take as well.
Of course, Newsom would have to trust his Lt. Governor. I recall Bustamente was pretty clearly running against Davis in 2003.
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
Yeah, I don’t trust those undecided numbers. I won’t feel happy until we get the actual “No” numbers well above 50%. No. I won’t feel happy until the recall actually fails. I don’t trust the polls that much, and less even than usual on an unusual election like this one.
trollhattan
@Jinchi:
I’ll use poll data at the time I cast my ballot to pick whomever can most effectively weaken the leading candidate, presuming one has broken from the pack. Gets complicated if there are, for example, three within a few points of one another. Don’t want to help one win “by accident.”
Captain C
How quickly could the lege impeach and remove Elder? Newsom loses by 1% and Elder wins the governorship with, say, 17% of the vote, could they do it right away? I’m sure they could find a pretext.
owlbrick
@William D:
That’s exactly what they tried last time, to a very counter-effective result. The ballot process for the recall is confusing, and trying to campaign on a split result only increased the confusion. The only way to make an effective choice on the second part is to increase turnout enough that is should likely be enough to defeat the first part. But a surprisingly large number of people think that they have to vote yes on the first part for their vote to count on the second; and they don’t want to risk that again. Even actively campaigning on that message last time didn’t get the message across. Thus, the message is entirely vote no on the recall.
trollhattan
@Jinchi:
Lt Gov is Eleni Kounalakis, who’s a bit of a phantom as is traditional for California’s “governor lite.”
The office was watered down after the Mike Curb hijinks during Jerry Brown 1.0, and is largely ceremonial. Who remembers that Gavin Newsom was Jerry Brown 2.0’s Lt Gov?
Almost Retired
@Jinchi: I haven’t decided which Republican I will vote for, but I will definitely not vote for Elder (duh), but also not for Faulconer. He scares me with his ability to fool people into thinking he’s “moderate,” and if he has a good showing in the recall, his reputation might be burnished if he runs for statewide office. Maybe I’ll vote for Ose, or the guy with the grizzly bear, since he’s already a proven loser. Somewhere, there is a state without “interesting” politics this year, but it ain’t here!
Jinchi
I agree with you about the current Lt. G., but Newsom was pretty well known as mayor of SF, even before being Jerry Brown’s #2.
Jinchi
@Almost Retired:
Why are you voting for one of the Republicans?
matt
What I’m gathering from this is Newsom ‘cleared the field’ and if the recall succeeds the result will be Republican governance for California. That’s political malpractice.
James E Powell
@owlbrick:
Like it or not, this is the plan, this is the only way to go.
The ads I’ve seen all lay out the case that this is Trump Republican bullshit. The negative is important and anti-Trump has some energy among Democrats.
But that’s not going to be enough. Newsom is going to have to make the positive case for his election. He is going to have convince people to vote for him, not just against the recall.
Almost Retired
@Jinchi: If Newsom is recalled, we’re going to have a Republican governor (at least for a little while). If that’s the case, I’m going to vote for a relatively inoffensive or ineffective one, to avoid Elder and Faulconer. Actually – and I may be in the minority here – but I’m not really that worried about the recall, especially with the mail-in ballots. But I’m still phone banking.
James E Powell
@Scout211:
I see anti-recall ads from time to time. Nothing like saturation. Recently the Elizabeth Warren one. I’m in Riverside County and I mostly watch sports.
I do not think TV ads are what’s going to get this done.
VeniceRiley
Team Newsom texts me every day begging for money. I sent them some once. They’re sitting on a ton of cash and they’d better start spending it!
owlbrick
@matt:
It’s not just Newsom; the entire state party apparatus is on board with the approach. They know that the only way they can avoid a recall is to campaign against the recall itself. Trying to campaign in favor of a candidate “just in case” waters down the message and could easily backfire.
James E Powell
Interesting factoid from the Gray Davis experience.
Total votes in 2002 general election: 7,738,821
Total votes in 2003 recall on yes/no: 9,413,488 – 8,985,057 valid votes (429,431 votes were invalid or blank)
What explains the huge increase in turnout? My non-expert opinion is that Arnold & the intense sycophantic press/media coverage, especially local TV news shows, was the most important factor. But I would suggest that an additional factor was the Republican voters were animated because they knew they had a good chance of winning.
For comparison, in the 2018 general election, 12,464,235 voted for governor. Newsom got 7,721,410 or 61.95%. This may have convinced him that he is popular.
What do other California residents think?
TriassicSands
@Jinchi: “Honestly, I have no clue who any of these candidates are.”
There’s not much you can do. Unless there is an organized campaign to get Democrats to prioritize one Democratic candidate, votes are likely to be scattered among many choices leaving them all in single digits behind Elder.
owlbrick
@James E Powell:
I feel like the messaging needs to start focusing on the negatives of not just Trump, but of the whole of the Republican establishment. Run on not turning California into a west coast version of DeSantis’ Florida, and fighting COVID with a strong public health response. Run on protecting the environment. Run on protecting public schools. Campaign like it’s a real election, because it is. It’s hard, because he doesn’t have just one opponent to campaign against; so turn that around, and campaign against the Republicans in toto. This is part of a nationwide program to strip our votes of meaning and overturn democracy for the purposes of laying waste to everything good. It needs to be stopped.
Humanities Prof
@trollhattan:
Might this be a case where the Republican party’s consistently anti-government messaging could be coming back to bite it in the butt?
The census relies, to a considerable degree, on voluntary participation. If you wind up with a lot of rural Republicans who are convinced that the census is “big gummint” trying to pry into their personal business, it could be possible that they wouldn’t complete census forms. And given COVID and thin population densities, these would be people who census workers would have trouble reaching.
trollhattan
@James E Powell:
Arnold’s star power, the porn star and other weirdos among the many, many, many candidates and the recent memory of rolling blackouts. But mostly Arnold.
Covid is Newsom’s Enron, both a matter of bad luck and timing rather than anything they did. The reason Enron and rolling blackouts even happened was Pete Wilson (Captain Deregulation) not Gray Davis, but nobody pondered that happenstance during the vote.
lowtechcyclist
So (1) what did it take to get this recall on the ballot in the first place, and (2) could the Dems turn around and have the winner face a recall, if Newsom gets recalled and a Republican wins?
trollhattan
@Humanities Prof: I like your theory, a lot. We certainly never saw Trump extolling people to fill out their census forms–he was too busy trying to block counting of non-residents. Did those efforts put a cloud over the census among his acolytes? Guessing yes.
lowtechcyclist
@owlbrick:
Yes to all of this.
owlbrick
@James E Powell:
I think he actually is probably more popular than a lot of folks who dislike him think; it’s just that it’s a moderately content, lukewarm support, as compared to the intense negatives of the people who oppose him. Democrats in CA are coasting on the Biden presidency wave of relief and focusing their thoughts on more immediate problems like COVID, and not really paying that much attention to politics. Newsom’s been a steady reassuring presence throughout the pandemic (aside from the colossal French Laundry blunder, which was a rake he really should have known better than to step on), and his policies overall have been pretty good. It’s just that the people who disagree with them are massively motivated to tear him down; mostly for partizan reasons, but some because they don’t like him personally (mostly due to his smarmy image from his younger days). If this was a normal election where he was running against a single Republican candidate he could focus on and campaign against, he would be reelected in a landslide. The problem is he has to run against the abstract question of recall, and motivating turnout to vote no against an abstract concept in an off year is something else than a normal campaign entirely.
Edmund Dantes
Just got the text that my ballot is in the mail to me.
Also, as I said in previous threads, I have seen tons of recall ads from Newsome and others on my social media feeds. I don’t have cable so no comment on TV ads.
I also had fairly constant text messages till I told them to stop since I was already a committed voter and they shouldn’t waste time on me.
James E Powell
@owlbrick:
Agree with every word. Hope the PTB are of the same mind.
It would be a tremendous benefit if everyone opposing this nightmare would make a commitment to work against for the next 30 days. Work on friends & family, then volunteer at Stop the Republican Recall.
I wish there were more ads that said “Keep Governor Newsom” – we need to stress his positives.
glory b
@Cacti: Yes, much as I love and admire him, it also worked out well for Thurgood Marshall, who was urged to retire while Carter was in office. We got Clarence Thomas instead.
I thought maybe RBG would have looked at that and decided differently, but even the smartest of us get blinders on when it comes to contemplating our own mortality.
Major Major Major Major
@James E Powell:
Well, it’s certainly the plan.
VFX Lurker
Registered Democratic voters outnumber registered Republican voters in California 2:1. Every registered voter will get a mail-in ballot and the option to vote in-person. I’m voting against the recall, and I’m writing postcards to fellow Californians to vote against the recall.
We’re going to get the government we deserve.
surfk9
@James E Powell: We are text banking now and will be canvassing Democrats to make sure they send in their ballots. Also doing postcards
Rick Taylor
@owlbrick:
Not necessarily. If the Republican vote is split among several candidates, while Democrats focus mostly on one, a Democratic candidate might win even if the Recall passes.
Citizen Alan
@glory b: I’m not sure I buy the idea that Thurgood Marshall should have resigned eleven years early in anticipation of the GOP holding the White House for 12 years. It’s not like anyone else anticipated the Reagan Revolution either. I’ve said before that I thought Marshall stepped down because after the Gulf War, he thought Poppy was unbeatable in 1992 but he would have stuck it out had he anticipated a Dem winning. As for RGB, she gambled and we all lost, but I still can’t fault her. But for Comey and other bad actors, Hillary Clinton would have named her replacement which I think was what she was waiting for. Nor can I begrudge her for failing to anticipate that the GQP would abandon every norm of civilized behavior to make sure Shitgibbon replaced her instead.
VeniceRiley
The thinking of the party is probably aligned to get the low attention dems to send in their ballots. Vote No. 2 seconds. That’s it. Prevent the “Sit this aside for now until I have time to decide which of these people to vote for.” It’s a turnout move
I wish “None of the above” were a choice on the alterative names.
owlbrick
@Rick Taylor: They tried that last time, and it caused confusion. This time, they made a decision early on to intentionally not muddy the waters. The effort to campaign for a Democratic candidate as a backup option would turn it into even more of a multi-part race, and divide the democratic electorate. Uniting behind the current governor and voting entirely and only against the recall allows the messaging to remain laser-focused on the real issue: stopping the effort to undermine California.
Roger Moore
@owlbrick:
It’s not just Newsom. There seem to be a ton of recall efforts going on right now at the local level. I think it represents the Republican response to electoral irrelevance. They know they can’t win a general election; in a lot of cases, they can’t even get in the top two, so the final ballot doesn’t have a Republican on it. But they can get enough angry Republicans to sign petitions to get a recall on the ballot, which gives them a chance to steal an office they can’t win in a real election.
owlbrick
@Roger Moore: 100%. It’s all about the nationwide program to undermine the very concept of electoral legitimacy itself. Democracy is anathema to them, so they will use whatever tools they have at their disposal, legal or otherwise, to destroy it. Representative government is only legitimate if it represents them alone, and not us.
Another Scott
State constitutions were often weird. I don’t think they were generally drawn up in times when a major party was full of insane people who wanted to burn everything down. Many probably need to be changed.
Virginia’s constitution is weird, too. It’s full of special provisions and language that in a sensible state would just be a law that the legislature could change with enough votes. But instead, if the state wants to, say, give military survivors a tax break, it has to be a constitutional amendment. It’s nuts. Alabama’s is worse, as I understand it.
California’s constitution has been hijacked by antitax zealots, anti government zealots, and who knows what else. The referendum process is too easily gamed. It needs a much higher threshold for action – say 35% of the registered voters. The normal process to change elected officials or to get the legislature to act on policy should be elections. Throwing governors out, or imposing legislation, should still be available, but it should be very difficult outside of elections.
Cheers,
Scott.
kindness
Newsome is not going to be booted. Most people like him. Republicans started with a recall campaign the day after he was elected. They had been collecting signatures for 2 years. There is something wrong with that. It shouldn’t be open ended and it should be within a defined timeframe.
None the less I am voting and Newsome will still be our governor the day after the election, no matter what the MSM is drooling about.
Geminid
@Mer: I listened to Hew Hewitt interview the San Diego mayor. The mayor emphasized management skill etc, like a good Chamber of Commerce Republican. I suspect Elder will easily outpoll the him, because conservatives these days want radicals, not managers.
I think California Democrats were correct in putting all their chips on Newsome. I don’t think a backup candidate would have been a good strategy. It might work if question 2 was a jungle primary with a runoff, but it’s not.
Mike S
I know a lot of people who worked with Elder. The best thing said about him was that he is a racist asshole. He called one friend a “spic.” I turned down a good job when I found out I might have to work with him. He was fired by KABC twice and just the other day said he would get rid of minimum wage which should help move people to vote but no one is paying enough attention.
I have a very bad feeling about this.
Brachiator
@The Moar You Know:
This reminds me of the hatred of Cuomo, independent of the sex scandal.
Newsom was the best choice for governor of the candidates who sought the office.
He has not been a terrible governor.
I don’t care about his possible presidential ambitions.
Roger Moore
@Mike S:
I’m worried about the recall, but I’m not completely freaking out. Even if we get a Republican governor, he will be faced with a state legislature with Democratic supermajorities in both houses. That doesn’t mean he can’t do a lot of damage- he could try to pull a DeSantis and fuck up our COVID response- but he can’t just rule by decree. Also, he’ll be up for reelection in 2022.
Roger Moore
@Brachiator:
I think Chiang would have been a lot better as governor. He’s definitely a work horse, not a show horse, which hurt him in the election, but he would have been a much better choice.
Ruckus
@Puddinhead:
That is not how the law is written. If the governor is recalled – by over 50% of the voters actually voting, he can no longer be governor, so a Newsom write in would be wasted.
Personally I’m wondering about voting for the best democrat on question 2. I don’t know who that might be.
The real issue is getting enough people to actually vote. I doubt there would be an issue if enough democrats vote.
Ruckus
@Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix:
Newsom isn’t by far the worst governor CA has had, in just my lifetime.
Could he be better? Couldn’t we all….
He’s not ideal but he’s done well with Covid, especially compared to many/most other governors.
It’s a big state with a lot going on, world’s 5th largest economy, it’s biggest county is more populated than 41 states, in under 5000 sq miles.
Comrade Colette
Our ballots arrived this afternoon.
Dante’s First
@owlbrick: Got it. Thanks for the clarification.
Sally
@schrodingers_cat: Because it’s a constitutional right of the people that includes all elected state officials, not just the governor. It’s probably unconstitutional for members of the legislature to eliminate the people’s democratic right to recall themselves. (See selected text below.)
“Article II: Voting, Iinitiative and Referendum, and Recall
Section I: All political power is inherent in the people. Government is instituted for their protection, security, and benefit, and they have the right to alter or reform it when the public good may require.”[…]
“Section 13: Recall is the power of the electors to remove an elective officer.”