Not being a big city person, I never thought I would say this. But I 💕 New York!
Letitia James isn’t letting Trump off the hook that easily. By ensuring the financial stability of the company behind his $175M bond, she’s essentially saying, “No funny business on our watch!” It’s like she’s playing chess while Trump’s stuck playing checkers. Checkmate, indeed.…
— My reflections and Introspections (@Nto79549105) April 4, 2024
Letitia James isn’t letting Trump off the hook that easily. By ensuring the financial stability of the company behind his $175M bond, she’s essentially saying, “No funny business on our watch!” It’s like she’s playing chess while Trump’s stuck playing checkers. Checkmate, indeed.…
Will Donnie understand, some day, what it means to be held accountable? Hoping the answer is yes!
Open thread.
Another Scott
“You just tell them and they believe. They just do.” – TIFG
Yeah, well maybe not always. Maybe people eventually remember “Trust, but verify.” He should have paid more attention to the story of The Shepherd Boy & the Wolf.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Balconesfault
I’m reminded once again of something I read years ago … that the Trump World since he started running for office in 2015 has been akin to hundreds of cockroaches climbing one on top of another to turn on the kitchen light.
MattF
The highest concentration of Trump-haters is in NYC. There are many excellent reasons for that.
kindness
In Trump’s mind, being held accountable is he watching his children be carted off to jail for their crimes. It never occurs to him that it will be he who is carted off.
WaterGirl
@kindness: Let’s hope that one day he is disabused of that notion.
Jay C
Except in Trump’s view, “held accountable” means “it’s the accountants’ department/fault/problem”
And it’s not like he cares, anyway, most likely: I’m sure he could give a flying how much more time dealing with the bonding company’s qualifications gets eaten up: as long as it puts off the Day Of Reckoning (which, I am sure, Trump
is assuredassures himself will NEVER arrive)….Scout211
This dates me, but can we just call Trump “Wimpy?”
Right there in the filings, in fine print, to Knight Securities: (Maybe)
Baud
Now I wonder whether the bond was written in crayon.
BR
Biden has now called for an immediate ceasefire. I am glad to see this. I think he’s done so at a moment where there is political will for this to “stick”. I expect that the “ceasefire now” anti-Biden activists will not be satisfied and it’ll be “too little, too late”, and they are right on the merits but not on the diplomacy, and I don’t know that anything Biden can ever do at this point can satisfy them.
https://apnews.com/article/biden-netanyahu-3591fb5f82b22cf8e5d1060fccaef115
Anonymous At Work
The guy behind the company posting the bond is worth $8~9 billion. This is a a set of documentation errors in the posting. For a bond company, this would be horribly embarrassing, like “Everyone stops talking and looks at you when you enter a room”. For a n00b, a first-timer, or someone doing it just this once, these errors are correctable without much doing. The most it says is that established companies didn’t want to do business with TFG for what he was offering.
schrodingers_cat
@BR: He will get zero credit for this from our progressive betters. Take that to the bank.
smith
Speaking of being held responsible, will Judge Merchan just overlook TFG’s continued violation of his gag order? TFG’s still bashing the judge’s daughter and wife, with no reaction yet from Merchan.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, TFG can be reined in, if he gets smacked repeatedly — he did stop defaming Engoron’s law clerk after the second time he was fined, and he did stop defaming E. Jean Carroll after he lost the second lawsuit. If Merchan doesn’t begin the necessary discipline now, he’s going to have to deal with a very disruptive defendant in court.
Baud
@BR:
Never chase perpetual critics.
Another Scott
@BR:
AlJazeera – Benny Gantz calls for new elections:
Lots of shoes are falling on Bibi right now.
Cheers,
Scott.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Baud:
GrueBleen
@Jay C: Grasping the concept of accountable may require an amount of what a great (but newly deceased) thinker called “slow thinking”; ie the ability to analyse aspects of reality and comprehend them.
Trump though is basically unable to progress past simplistic “quick thinking” which does not allow him to comprehend non-simplistic concepts.
Soprano2
@BR: The ones who are more performance art than actual conviction will move the goalposts. Bet on it. The others might give him some credit.
Spanky
Got plans for the beach this summer?
Free WaPo link.
Brachiator
No. I am not a therapist and don’t even pretend to be one on the Internet, but I believe that infantile denial is the core of Trump’s personality.
I’m not sure that even he realized it before he got elected, but he clearly got a thrill out of being president and feeling above the law. It has pushed him to go further, to the extent of presenting legal arguments that as president he has total immunity and can do whatever he wants.
It is the political extension of his admission in the Carroll case deposition that he absolutely believes that powerful men can do whatever they want to women.
Sure Lurkalot
NAL, but supposedly Trump secured the bond with cash, one of the issues might be the nature of the pledge. Did the bonding company perfect the pledge in any way, by e.g. filing a UCC financing statement identifying a bank account with said cash as collateral? Or was it a nah, he’s good for it. The concern would be a reluctance to pay out on the bond if they have no true recourse against Trump.
Jay C
@Baud:
Sharpie.
BR
@Soprano2:
The best thing for him politically is to get an actual ceasefire to happen and get Gaza out of the news. That requires feeding the people and getting Bibi to stop making new problems. After it drops out of the news, there will be surely other election issues that will flare up and he can turn to those and a lot of the people who are focused on Gaza now will shift their attention.
Mousebumples
Eta – the link describes what’s going on, I think, but it appears No Labels is dying with Lieberman.
Finally… Doubt any investors get money back though.
Baud
@BR:
Agreed. Although he’s been working on that for weeks. Hamas is often the one that says no. Hope things change for the better soon.
Baud
@Mousebumples:
👍
One less problem to worry about.
BR
@Baud:
Even if there is a ceasefire, it’s politically in the interest of Bibi and Hamas to stir things up in the Fall, both for their domestic audiences and to interfere with the US election. There’s little that can be done to stop that, but at that point, as long as Biden has kept a lid on things for several months, it may politically be ok.
Suzanne
@BR:
I wish we could stop worrying about perceptions and concentrate on getting the right thing done. Calling for a ceasefire is good. Ending military aid to Israel would be even better. I hope we¡ll get there.
MattF
@Mousebumples: It’s a larf that WSJ calls them ‘centrist’, but… actually good news.
Baud
@BR:
Yes. Expect much international fuckery in the fall.
But I think the Arab states are really tired of this as well, so I’d imagine Biden will try to get them to form a united front against a resumption of fighting if there is a cease fire.
Tony Jay
@BR:
Leaving aside the whole issue of who, exactly, declared a bunch of ratfucking neverwhere’s to be the representative spokespeople for a fairly large chunk of the Democratic base (and normies too, apparently), isn’t it also the case that, without the loud cries of dissatisfaction from the huge number of firmly Democratic voting people who have been demanding a ceasefire since way before it was cool, Biden wouldn’t have felt the necessary political pressure to do the right thing and call for a ceasefire now?
dm
@BR: the “goalposts” were rightly (in my opinion) moved to “stop giving them arms” months ago.
Iron Dome is one thing (that seems defensive and okay), 2000-lb bombs is another.
Baud
@Suzanne:
Agreed. It’s like worrying about how MAGA will react about stuff we do.
hueyplong
@Mousebumples: We all suspected that the best thing Lieberman could do for the country was to drop dead.
rikyrah
The Giant Threat Lurking Behind Florida’s November Abortion Vote
BY MARK JOSEPH STERN
APRIL 02, 20244:53 PM
The Florida Supreme Court seemed to offer a compromise Monday when it greenlit the state’s six-week abortion ban while simultaneously approving a ballot initiative that would, if enacted, create a constitutional right to reproductive freedom. And indeed, the court’s split decision offers hope that Floridians can reestablish their state as an abortion refuge in the South this November. But an ominous current lurked beneath the rulings: Six of the court’s seven justices appeared to endorse fetal personhood under the state constitution as it stands now, expressing support for—as one justice put it—“the unborn’s competing right to life” over the patient’s right to bodily autonomy. The majority’s rhetoric indicates that if the pro-choice amendment fails this fall, the Florida Supreme Court remains ready to grant fetuses and embryos a constitutional right to life that prohibits the Legislature from legalizing abortion in the future.
There’s no doubt that this court is supremely hostile to abortion. In its first decision on Monday, the conservative supermajority overturned decades of precedent protecting access to abortion under the Florida Constitution’s right to privacy. In 1980 voters enshrined this right, the cornerstone of Roe v. Wade, into the state’s founding charter, with an evident understanding that it would safeguard reproductive autonomy. Yet, by a 6–1 vote, the court gutted the amendment by ignoring historical evidence of its broad original meaning. At the same time, by a 4–3 vote, the court upheld a proposed amendment that would restore an expansive right to abortion access throughout the state. It will require 60 percent support to pass in November.
This second ruling might seem to temper the majority’s hostility toward reproductive freedom. Not quite: Piecing together the fractured opinions, it becomes clear that six justices stand ready to institute fetal personhood under existing state law. The disagreement among this far-right supermajority comes down to tactics, timing, and deference to democracy. Three are prepared to now wield fetal personhoodas a sword against any expansion of abortion, even by constitutional amendment. Three are waiting to impose personhood if the upcoming amendment fails and will not weaponize the doctrine today to keep the initiative off the ballot. (All but one of these justices were appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.) Just a single justice, Jorge Labarga—who dissented from the court’s first decision gutting the right to privacy—declined to board the personhood train.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/04/florida-november-abortion-vote-desantis.html
Belafon
@Suzanne: Aid to Israel is generally part of our military spending, so the only way that’s ending is a government shutdown. If Biden could just shut it down he’d be sending more stuff to Ukraine.
Suzanne
@Tony Jay: Um yes, thank you. We can always count on our resident broken record to figure out a way to blame every political failure in this country on progressives and leftists (while living in Massachusetts, FFS)…. but on this issue, and others, the progressive side of the party was right and they used their influence to achieve appropriate ends. That’s How to Do Politics.
Imagine seeing these images coming out of Gaza and trying to blame the people who…. are calling for it to stop.
Jay C
@Mousebumples:
No Labels:
No Ideas
No Candidate
No Organization
No Chance.
Now simplified down to just: NO.
JPL
Trump thinks that Jack Smith should be sanctioned for attacking the judge.
hahahahahahhaha hahahahaahhahaahha
Anonymous At Work
@Another Scott: 5 months from now. Plenty of time (in the Israeli system) to disband the Supreme Court and reformat the Basic Laws to make disagreement with Likud into a crime.
hueyplong
@JPL: At p. 23, White & Strunk say it’s poor form to start a sentence with “Trump thinks….”
Anonymous At Work
@Sure Lurkalot: He got it with a mix of cash and real estate that he may/may not be able to burden formally in a written agreement. Because if TFG had the cash to use, he would have used it directly to avoid paying a % fee for the bonds. However, he doesn’t have the liquidity to risk given his other debts and agreements. “Lack of Cash” is how businesses go under: debt-collectors come to collect cash and there’s no cash to pay.
Eolirin
I think Trump’s plan is to stiff his bond holders once he loses his appeals and let them try to sue him to get their money back. That’s how he’s resolved everything else like this. By the time that’s all resolved he’ll probably either have paid them off for pennies on the dollar via settlements or be dead of old age. Or at least I’m sure he thinks that’s how it’ll play out.
@Suzanne: Ending military aid to Israel could result in a much larger conflict and would rob the US of any diplomatic leverage. It’s a nuclear option and last resort.
mrmoshpotato
Margins broke at 37.
glc
@Tony Jay: Well yes, but we’ve got a lot of people suffering from Stockholm syndrome and that’s not going to change any time soon.
Anoniminous
If an ‘American Russian Political Affairs Committee’ was spending a hundred million to go after Pro-Ukrainian politicians people around here would be having shit fits.
Call it the American Israeli Political Affairs Committee and people are just fine with it.
ESPECIALLY when they go after those horrid Progressives.
WaterGirl
@Another Scott: Glad to see your take on this since my initial thought was – yeah, lets give another 6 month of rule to the guy who is fucking this completely and give him 6 more months to wipe out the Palestinian people.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: I really don’t think the Biden administration would have done anything differently even without the protests, except how they handled media relations and selective leaks.
smith
Hmmm. Maybe Jack Smith has put the fear of God into “Judge” Cannon at last. She just rejected TFG’s motion to dismiss based on the Presidential Records Act.
Baud
@Anoniminous:
Dumb comparison. Israel is nowhere close to being an adversary to the US that Russia is.
Baud
@smith:
👍
ETA: She couldn’t have written it that quickly though.
Omnes Omnibus
@Anoniminous: Remind me again who said they were fine with it? I don’t really recall a pro-AIPAC contingent around here.
SiubhanDuinne
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
Hahaha, one of my all-time favourite MP sketches!!
Bugboy
That “Ooops! You forgot to attach your bondsman’s financials” filing is gonna get real for DJT, and real fast. And yeah, I “really believe” Dump “forgot”…
Eolirin
@WaterGirl: The alternative is that there are no new elections until late 2026.
There won’t be new elections until the conflict is over. The only way they happen without setting a vote like that is if the government collapses. And that’d create a military leadership void in the middle of active military measures. I don’t think any of the governing coalition is going to be willing to go there.
Gantz is signaling that he feels it’ll be over or at least reduced in intensity sufficiently that a leadership change can occur by then.
Anoniminous
@Baud:
So you are fine with Israel interfering with US elections.
Tony Jay
@Eolirin:
Really?
You think that, without the political space created by the protests and the widespread understanding that a large number of Democratic voters were increasingly angry at the Administration’s policy with regards to Israel’s actions, Biden would have been able to go from ‘we fully support Israel’s response’ to ‘ceasefire now’ in one step?
I don’t think so. I don’t think that’s how it works at all.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: Interesting. You are a lot more knowledgable than I am on reading the Israel tea leaves.
Baud
@Anoniminous:
I’m saying your comparison between Israel and Russia is dumb. If you want to make an argument, do it without the comparison and maybe I’ll consider it.
Scout211
whoa!
And as posted earlier, Judge McAfee rejected Trump and his co-conspirators’ motion to dismiss on free speech grounds.
And the day is not yet over.
WaterGirl
@Tony Jay: Biden has NOT been saying “we fully support Israel’s response” for months now.
HumboldtBlue
Eolirin
@Tony Jay: There was no single step. There’s been tons of incremental steps all designed to increase pressure on Israel’s government, and they’ve been going on since the conflict started.
They’ve all ultimately failed, because Netanyahu and co are going to do what they’re going to do and don’t care about the US’s or the world’s opinion. Which is why we are where we are.
That you think this was sudden tells me you haven’t been paying attention.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Agreed. That’s misinformation.
Tony Jay
@Suzanne:
Well, yeah. When your entire repertoire consists of howling “But Progressive Betters R Teh Badz!!!”, it’s not surprising that the words “Well gosh, they were right all along” just don’t flow too good.
Breeds resentment. Just look at the newnewlabourinc fuckers on this side of the Pond. Their entire political soul is invested in always punching Left, and it’s leaving wide open spaces for the Hard Right to become the next Government after their five years of ‘Cleeks Law as Party Policy’ leads to the electorate turning against them.
That’ll be the Left’s fault too though. Just because.
bbleh
@HumboldtBlue: it would appear Mr. Smith hit a nerve. Good.
rikyrah
Fritz Farrow (@FritzFarrow) posted at 0:22 PM on Thu, Apr 04, 2024:
.@VP Kamala Harris visited a first-time homeowner in Charlotte, North Carolina’s historically Black neighborhood of Grier Heights to talk about affordable energy-efficient homes and reducing costs. The vice president is scheduled to announce clean energy grants later today. https://t.co/SCVmVyV2et
(https://x.com/FritzFarrow/status/1775936964010692725?t=pJngbyM7bNFCEXDOPAZLNw&s=03)
TaMara
Trolling the Xshitter site, found out that the bond company had to settle after being charged for defrauding military families (by the Trump DOJ, no less)
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-bond-backer-don-hankey-was-also-sued-by-the-trump-administration
Real peach of a guy
Another Scott
@Anonymous At Work: @WaterGirl:
Geminid is the local expert on this stuff. Like what it means for the Knesset up until the announced election date, etc. Let’s see… The Knesset voted to go on recess from April 7 – May 19.
:-/
My impression is that Gantz wouldn’t be speaking up now, and Biden wouldn’t be being even more explicit about calling for a cease fire, if they didn’t think that it was a way to pressure Bibi now and increase the chances of getting rid of him.
Politics is slow.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Suzanne
@Eolirin:
Yeah, I disagree on this.
smith
@bbleh: However,
Hugo Lowell
@hugolowell
18m
Judge Cannon also declines Special Counsel’s request that she make clear her position on jury instructions, rebuking it as “unprecedented and unjust”
So the mandamus clock is still ticking.
WaterGirl
@hueyplong: I loved that in the entire Jack Smith filing just a day or two ago, he repeatedly refers to Trump as “Trump”. No Mr. Trump, or Former President Trump
Just Trump.
Anoniminous
@Omnes Omnibus:
Point me to one front page post pointing out AIPAC’s acquiesce of and support for ethnic removal and mass murder.
Tony Jay
@glc:
Agreed. It’s not too far off the post Sept 11 Democratic defensive crouch where Bush’s WOT was concerned. Conventional wisdom insisted it was the only way to go, but it was morally wrong, didn’t win them any elections, and hurt them later when the receipts were dug up and waved out of context.
The dirty hippies were right about that, too. Hindsight, apparently, always comes wearing a Tie-Dyed hoodie and smoking a doobie.
Geminid
@Tony Jay: Biden’s been calling for a ceasefire all along, and CIA Director Burns has represented him in a half dozen rounds of talks with his Israeli and Egyptian counterparts plus the Qatari Prime Minister, trying to nail down a sceasefire. This ceasefire would be along the lines of the one in late November, but with 40 hostages released over a forty day truce in exchange for around 700 Israeli “security prisoners.” The hope is that ithe truce could be extended and made permanent.
Hamas says they are holding out for an immediate, permanent ceasefire followed by an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and only then an exchange of hostages and prisoners. They might still go for the US proposal, but they have perverse incentive to hold out because the more Gazans killed the closer Hamas thinks it gets to its goal of isolating Israel from its western supporters. If 30,000 killed doesn’t get the job done, maybre 20,000 more will.
And Hamas’s foreign allies like Iran and Russia know this situation is hurting Biden so they’ll encourage Hamas to hang tough. They don’t care about the civilians killed, and Hamas leaders like to emphasize that they lead a “nation of martyrs.”
Omnes Omnibus
@smith: Yeah, the MTD was never going to fly. The nutso theory behind the jury instruction request is the bigger issue. Smith won’t be satisfied by this. Nor should he be.
WaterGirl
@mrmoshpotato: fixed!
Eolirin
@Tony Jay: Also, I don’t think the Biden administration’s State department is staffed by a bunch of rank amateurs who let their decision making be lead about by fluctuations in domestic public opinion when it comes to global conflicts. They don’t need cover to give them space to do the right thing. Afghanistan is proof enough of that.
They have strategic objectives. They pursue them with the tools they have. Domestic politics is going to be a secondary concern.
Actually getting Israel to stop murdering large numbers of Palestinians is much more important than what the people are voting uncommitted in a primary, with their combined total near non-existent understanding of the geopolitical space and the diplomatic process between states think should happen. And let me tell you how much Netanyahu does not give a shit what the US left thinks about things. It’s not even part of the conservation in terms of the diplomacy.
He’s more likely to do worse things just to make Biden’s political situation at home more difficult than to bow into pressure because the US left is “pushing” Biden in a certain direction.
Do you really think the Biden administration is okay with a million children dying of starvation? Do you really think they need people protesting behavior that’s pushed things to a point where that’s an imminent danger to be calling for an end to hostilities? Seriously? That without that they’d just stand by and say nothing? FFS man. The situation itself is untenable and the Biden state department isn’t staffed by monsters.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: Agree.
bbleh
@smith: uhh not sure about that. the way I read Smith’s submission, he wanted her to rule (or focus her ruling) on the applicability of the PRA, not on specific wording for jury instructions, which in any case is putting the cart far in front of the horse. I read that language in her order as defensive and kinda off the point — I’m not gonna finalize jury instructions now! To which, no duh, just take the PRA off the table please. I dunno how finally she did that, but the stories so far seem to suggest she focused on that
ETA: ok, now seeing that she simply rejected motion to dismiss pre-trial based on PRA. So that would seem to leave the door open for it to be part of trial, argument, or jury instructions. So indeed mandamus may still be in play, if he wants her to take it off the table completely.
Geminid
@Eolirin: Actually Israel could probably get along fine if they had an election now. A caretaker government could still run the war until a new one was seated. The current government is incapable and deadlocked so they aren’t getting anything done now anyway.
Tony Jay
@WaterGirl:
I know. Of course he hasn’t. His policy has slowly evolved, as has the Administration’s language.
I’m saying that that evolution wouldn’t have been able to happen if the only political calculation on the table was “Will what I say upset the pro-Israel lobby and it’s allies of convenience?”
If the pro-Palestine protestors had done as they were told and shut the hell up because “Trump!!!”, it would have been, and then Biden – would – have had to jump from “we fully support Israel” to “ceasefire now” in one bound, and that would have been politically dangerous and out of character.
I hope that’s clearer.
Omnes Omnibus
@Anoniminous: There isn’t a front page post opposing using koalas as sex slaves either. Do you think the blog is pro-koala sex slave?
Princess
Good for James. This all looked to me like a set up for a situation in which Trump refuses to pay the bond company and the company says, oops! We’re bankrupt! and they all walk away. No idea if that’s a realistic fear or just my paranoia but the Hankey set up sure seems hinky.
Tony Jay
@Eolirin:
See my response to Watergirl. I think you’re the one who’s misunderstood. My bad. I wasn’t as clear as I thought I was.
rikyrah
@Eolirin:
Yep. I see it too, plain as day.
No One You Know
@Jay C:
I’m guessing no.
At the 11th hour, somebody always buys stock in that flaccid hide. This gotten old.
Trump is watered stock. I’d to see a map of who owns how much of him, and what return they’re expecting from the investment–financial, social, political, ideological.
I can’t get over the blank-eyed foot shuffling at DOJ. It’s as if DOJ privately always thought of the presidency as some kind of king, and the optics of politics has meant more to Merrick Garland and his ilk than anything else.
I never again want to see some Republican rewarded for a job in justice by a Democratic candidate. This is about VALUES.
I have no idea what “good Republicans” want, if it isn’t a formal caste system.
LNNVA
@Belafon: Thanks for saying this. Biden doesn’t pass the bills that allocate military spending. I don’t know whether he can stop payments that Congress has already allocated to Israel. If he could do that, I agree with you that he would already be sending more help to Ukraine.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Did you see the MeidasTouch guy’s take on how Jack Smith should proceed?
coin operated
@Mousebumples:
2 birds…one stone…I’m good with this
WaterGirl
@Tony Jay: I’m sorry, Tony Jay, but it’s not really more clear for me.
Either I woke up stupid today, which is a possibility, or none of us is writing as clearly as we usually do because it’s an emotional topic.
New Deal democrat
@Suzanne:
@Tony Jay:
FWIW, I agree with the two of you on this. And if Biden has the legal authority to stop offensive military aid to Israel until the Gaza operations stop (e.g., does a bilateral law or Treaty supersede, or is it subject to, e.g., a universal convention to which the US is also a signatory?), after this latest attack I have become convinced he should do so.
Put another way, if I conclude that *both* parties to a fight are now in the wrong, do I have any obligation to support either one? Or does the maxim against actively supporting evil supersede any prior position?
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: I hadn’t and I don’t have time right now. I will say that the couple of minutes I did listen to didn’t fill me with confidence. Referring to the Circuit Court judges as “her bosses” is factually wrong and IMO not even a useful shorthand.
Whomever
Since you mention NYC and not being a big city person, I’ll just point out that Letitia James is the STATE AG, and NY State is actually fairly large and has some very rural parts. In fact, the NY Adirondack State park is larger than any National Park not in Alaska (and is three times the size of Yellowstone). It’s not all NYC.
(Also interesting trivia…Albany, aka the NY State capital, is actually slightly older than NYC).
Melancholy Jaques
@Suzanne:
Ending military aid to Israel will cause the collapse of the Democratic coalition. Biden is a good person who is both knowledgable and wise. He is not continuing aid to Israel because he hates Palestinians or loves Netanyahu.
bbleh
@coin operated: yeah bet there’s some relieved expressions at the WH this evening …
UncleEbeneezer
@Omnes Omnibus: But pretty standard behavior for Cannon. She seems to constantly mis-state things.
TheTruffle
@Whomever: I’m from the Hudson Valley, specifically a town that used to basically be bumfuck until the city folk turned it into an exurb.
Suzanne
@Tony Jay:
Yes this.
Similar to widening the Overton window, the pro-ceasefire protestors made space within the Democratic coalition for themselves, and that gave Biden more space to shift.
There’s been reporting out there with comments like “Joe Biden has special affection for Israel”. I don’t know how true that really is. But Biden’s face was on murals in Israel a few months ago. They obviously thought he would support them in whatever they wanted to do.
UncleEbeneezer
@Whomever: Equal to the size of Vermont! Crazy! I had no idea.
bbleh
@Omnes Omnibus: but is it enough to go to the 11th Circuit? He asked her to rule, and she ruled — on a little piece of it, and said she’d rule on jury instructions later when it’s appropriate (which it is), conveniently leaving out most of the elephant in the room. Is it realistic to petition to try to make her rule more broadly?
UncleEbeneezer
@TheTruffle: Which city? We were planning to move to Hudson Valley (likely Newburgh) but had to put that on hold for several reasons (mostly losing most of our savings on end of life expenses of my In-Laws) but still hope to move there at some point.
Suzanne
@Melancholy Jaques:
Whatever the reasons, Palestinian children are being blown up with the help of American resources. I struggle to see wisdom there.
Omnes Omnibus
@bbleh: In my view, it is. She is trying to force them to adopt an entirely specious theory of the case.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yeah, I don’t normally listen to them anymore because of things like that, but I would love to hear your take on that clip if you take the time to watch it later.
Omnes Omnibus
@UncleEbeneezer: I am not talking about something Cannon said. I am talking about the podcaster.
Tony Jay
@Eolirin:
You’re asking me a lot of leading questions, so I’ll cut through it and tell you this.
I’m fully aware that the world we live in is complicated. There are no two sides. There aren’t even a hundred sides. There’s a mixed-up flustercuck of uncountable and often self-contradictory ‘sides’ that, if graphed, would probably look like a million kids were let loose with ten million crayons and all the sugar they can swallow.
It’s complicated. There are no easy answers and the bigger the issue the harder it gets. Anyone who pretends otherwise is lying to someone.
Yes, the US State department will have been trying to follow its geopolitical objectives without paying much attention to US domestic politics. But that’s not really possible, is it? Not when the policy directions it’s told to follow are set by an executive that does have to pay attention to US domestic politics. Because if it doesn’t, and if blowback from foreign policy causes a few thousand voters in the wrong places to make the wrong choice and let the MAGA loons get their hands back on the levers of power, you know full well that those geopolitical objectives are going to change because the people giving the orders at State are going to be very different people.
So yeah, I’m saying that domestically the pro-Palestinian anger of the protestors has opened up political space that’s made it possible for the Executive to change its rhetoric and policy on Gaza faster than would otherwise have been possible without paying a political price.
You can disagree with that. Fine. But that’s all it is, a disagreement. I’m not remotely interested in a back and forth over whether I’m actually saying that people I don’t even know are ethical monsters, because.. what’s the fucking point of that? Who cares?
Bill Arnold
@Spanky:
Here’s the raw forecast in table form.
Forecast for 2024 Hurricane Activity (CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research)
WaterGirl
@UncleEbeneezer: I believe Omnes was referring to the Meidas Touch attorney using that phrase.
edit: I see that Omnes has already answered that. oh well.
pajaro
@New Deal democrat:
The aid to Israel in the pipeline is already authorized. The executive has the right to withhold aid to Israel, or to any other country, for that matter, if it’s being used to commit war crimes or other similar illegal purposes. For the purposes of Israel aid, there is some defensive aid, such as the Iron Dome that would not be at issue, but the bombs sure might be. The State Department is supposed to decide whether the aid has been used illegally, but so far, it has not completed an assessment (or has not yet found Israel in violation) as I understand it.
Suzanne
From NBCNews:
Good.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: Nothing has actually changed in the US position, as far as I can see, except conditions have gotten worse in Gaza, so they’re being more forceful and saying things in public that were more limited to diplomatic channels previously.
US diplomatic action has been directed towards accomplishing all of the things people want them to do except cut off aid this entire time.
Everything that’s been being called for is pretty much performative, and in ways that could damage the diplomatic process, or was something that was already being done, except the cutting off of aid, which would have really significant consequences. And still isn’t on the table.
So what change do you think happened here, in terms of the US diplomatic position?
The US has been negotiating a path toward a more permanent ceasefire for months, even before the protest movement got this big, and certainly before the primary votes. Do you think not vetoing a UN resolution and more vocally calling for one is because of protestors, or because of the mass starvation going on and the Israeli government’s intransigence?
When the strategy is aimed at the same place the entire time, but a tactic is not working, escalation is a natural next step. You don’t need to be pushed by a third party to go there. The situation itself precipitates it.
Or do you think the Biden administration was okay with tens of thousands of Palestinians dying and now suddenly isn’t just because of the implications to domestic politics, so much so that they changed their diplomatic strategy, not because they think it’ll be more effective at achieving their goals, which as far as I can tell, do not seem to have changed, but because people are yelling at them?
The US’s position here is less powerful than many people think, the situation is far less straightforward in terms of actions the US can take and the consequences of them, and the damage that could occur by failing to thread the needle exactly right in this situation is likely to be extremely severe. And you think State is letting a protest movement call any of its shots?
I’m not saying it’s entirely irrelevant to every action, but if you think something significantly different would be happening, you need to think that the Biden administration is okay with the situation in Gaza getting even worse than it already is. That they can look at the current situation and not already be trying to do everything they can to stop it from progressing any further, taking into account certain actions could make things worse or not lead to any forward movement on a solution.
I refuse to accept any framing that presents Biden and State as being populated by monsters and that’s exactly what that suggests.
Bill Arnold
@BR:
The USA, or more likely private actors in the USA, can play that game too, vs Mr. Netanyahu and his religious supremacist coalition partners. There is considerable pent up lack of forgiveness for previous Likud/Israeli Right Wing interference in USA politics.
West of the Rockies
@rikyrah:
And if the CA billionaire vulture capitalist gets f##*ed over, who cares? I sure wouldn’t.
UncleEbeneezer
@WaterGirl: Can any of the BJ attorneys explain this?:
Via Bradley Moss on Xitter: “I respectfully disagree with Neal (Katyal) for one reason: I think Smith has to try to exclude the PRA defense first through a motion in limine. If Cannon denies that route, *then* you seek mandamus relief.”
JaySinWA
@Suzanne: Here’s the readout from the White House about the call:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/04/04/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-call-with-prime-minister-netanyahu-of-israel-3/
New Deal democrat
@pajaro: Thanks for the reply.
Suzanne
@Eolirin: I agree with TonyJay here.
Pressure from the pro-ceasefire side helped shift the rhetoric from where we were a few months ago (a media focus on anti-Semitic incidents on elite American college campuses) to now, when we’re discussing the people actually trapped in the war zone and the war crimes against them. And like it or not, that matters. That shifts perceptions of the voting public. Biden is often going to do what his voters want him to do, and those who supported a ceasefire were right to influence him. That doesn’t make him a monster, but it does make him a politician.
UncleEbeneezer
You love to see it:
UncleEbeneezer
@Omnes Omnibus: Ah, gotcha.
Tony Jay
@WaterGirl:
Okay. It’s like this.
The Hamas atrocities happen. Biden gives Israel full support.
Netanyahu and the IDF did what they do. Civilian casualties skyrocket.
Now imagine there are no pro-Palestinian protests. Nada. Everyone who disagrees with giving Netanyahu a free swing with all the weapons he wants keeps their mouth shut because they’re scared that any dissent might help Trump get elected.
The only voices anyone hears, the only narrative out there, is pro-Israeli, getting louder and shriller the worse the slaughter in Gaza gets. Even the possibility of anyone raising a pro-Palestinian opinion gets reduced to zero because of the prominence of the pro-Israel narrative. Then something like the murder of the aid workers happens, with all the evidence that it was deliberate.
Is it politically possible for Biden to come out in this scenario and call for an immediate ceasefire without spending a LOT of political capital and taking a ton of flack from people who have spent the last six months trimming their sails to fit the prevailing winds?
I say no. I say the voicing of pro-Palestinian anger was politically necessary for Biden to get to this point where breaking with Netanyahu’s idea of what Israeli interests are is possible. He may have wanted to get there, he seems to be an empathetic guy with a very fine political antennae, but he needed some of the spadework done before he could start building.
You see what I mean now?
Kathleen
@schrodingers_cat: I got this email from White House about his call:
Kathleen
@schrodingers_cat:
Readout of President Joe Biden’s Call with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel
Omnes Omnibus
@UncleEbeneezer:
There are hoops to jump through. Smith has to jump through all of them to get the result we all want. He has to exhaust all the options for Cannon to fix her own fuck up before the 11th will step in.
Geminid
@Suzanne: Israelis put Biden’sface on murals because they appreciated his support right after October 7. That isn’t a sign they think he will support them in whatever they want to do, just that he (and two US aircraft carriers) were there when they needed him. And you can bet the Likudniks and the Haredi weren’t the ones putting up the signs, but Israelis on the political center and the left.
Another Scott
@Eolirin:
I’m not sure that Biden is actually saying much differently than he did on October 18, 2023 when he was in Israel. WhiteHouse.gov:
He’s said publicly from the beginning – before the public had much of a chance to figure out what was going on and what it might mean in an election – that Palestinians must be protected and aid must flow. And Bibi has consistently put up roadblocks, and worse.
It’s a terrible situation. Biden’s been doing about all we could ask, given all the political and regional constraints, as terrible as those constraints are….
My $0.02. Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
JaySinWA
@UncleEbeneezer: I listened to a few of the Midas Touch recordings, but I’ve given up on them. Too much overselling of things. Breathless reporting that doesn’t seem to be reflected in the actual legal response.
bbleh
@Omnes Omnibus: concur, or at least to keep it in play, and thereby maintain a convenient way for her to dismiss the case or direct a verdict or what have you. And I would add, if not now, then when? I just hope it’s enough to get over the (high) hurdle, and she hasn’t managed to find some barely acceptable minimum. At this point, it seems pretty clear that if he files a motion in limine to exclude the PRA entirely, she’ll sit on it forever, and/or eventually issue some half-ruling that sorta kinda maybe excludes part of it, for now, or or or. And meanwhile the clock ticks.
Betty
@Spanky: Absolutely frightening for those of us living in hurricane territory. A devastating storm feels almost inevitable given the excessive heat of this past year.
Suzanne
@Tony Jay: You are correct.
I remember after 9/11, when anyone who dared to submit that perhaps we shouldn’t invade Iraq was shouted down and ridiculed as an anti-American surrender monkey. Probably gay. Certainly crazy. Definitely Someone Who Hated The Troops.
But they made some space for that position in the public square.
Biden is trying to do the right thing and hold the coalition together, I have no doubt. The people calling for a ceasefire have made space for a viewpoint that is neither pro-Israel nor pro-Hamas, but is instead pro-human rights. That’s honestly great citizenship at work.
NotMax
@MattF
Actually that would be the unique enclave of Kalawao county in Hawaii. In 2020, 96% for Biden (23 votes) to 4% for Trump (1 vote).
Baud
@NotMax:
Kalawaonians are good people.
WaterGirl
@Tony Jay: Thanks, I do see what you’re saying now.
Maybe I was having trouble understanding it because I don’t agree with the framing at all, and that’s why I couldn’t make sense of what you were saying?
If I were a better writer and better at expressing my thoughts on this, I would have written exactly what Eolirin wrote at #111.
I think Biden has been following his moral compass all along, within the constraints that exist. In spite of Biden’s immediate and instinctive support of Israel and its right to exist – at the onset of this in October – I have seen more and more daylight between Biden and Bibi, with that daylight increasing exponentially as time has gone on.
I do think that the MURDER of the World Central Kitchen workers gives him the political breathing room to draw an even more public and more overt line in the sand with Bibi. Do this and stop doing that, or else.
cain
@HumboldtBlue:
Neal thinks that Smith has enough to go to the 11th Circuit Court because she didn’t actually decide anything.
bbleh
@Betty: this is ungood. I’m very glad we’re out of the islands. Irmaria was only, what, 7 years ago? And I can see something very similar, or even worse, happening here.
Plan now.
UncleEbeneezer
@Omnes Omnibus: Makes sense. Thanks :)
Scout211
I just wonder what he may have purchased with his $175M. What would Trump have offered him?
UncleEbeneezer
@JaySinWA: I can definitely see that. I still like them but they definitely oversell things. I just take that into account as I listen. Even the most (small “c”) conservative podcasts on this stuff have these issues to some extent. They are all trying to get clicks/listens. None of them are perfect so I just listen to a range.
Jay C
OK: have to put an IANAAccountant Disclaimer in, but I just read some online posts re the bond TFG was supposed to post in the NYS case: AG James was probably right (as she usually is) to question the financials which Trump’s bonder had neglected to include in their response to the court: apparently, Knight Specialty’s [actually their parent co.’s (?)] “assets” to cover the value of the Trump bond is a “note” of suspicious origin (backdated to 12/31/23); coincidentally for the exact amount Trump owes (plus fee).
Like I said, I’m not an accountant, but even I can see that there’s something just a tad hinky about Trump trying to post a bond whose “value” derives basically from HIS OWN IOU to somebody else. WTF???
Suzanne
@WaterGirl:
Think about the domestic politics as one of the constraints that exist. Pro-ceasefire protestors have changed the nature of that constraint somewhat. To their credit, and the world’s benefit.
Tony Jay
@Suzanne:
Yeah. Life is made up of lots of moving parts that have no obligation to fit or even appear at convenient times, political life is a shit ton more complicated and has no guarantee of any happy endings. People who get out there and make things happen in the political sphere enter a messy world where even good deeds can lead to bad ends and visa versa, or not, and any combination in between.
What people do or don’t do doesn’t make them monsters and it doesn’t make things angels. It makes them people trying to do things that can be monstrous or can be angelic, or any combination in between, because complicated. But doing ‘things’ is necessary, or nothing ever changes.
And speaking up against things we believe are monstrous is absolutely necessary, or what’s the point of anything?
NotMax
@UncleEbeneezer
Popok, Agnifilo and Davis, though repetitive, often worth a listen.
How Meiselas has avoided dislocating both shoulders from patting himself on the back is a mystery. As for Cohen, hard pass.
YMMV.
Joe Falco
@BR: If Biden is ready to put down a red line Israel can’t cross then he should be ready to hold himself to account when that line is crossed. I have no confidence Netanyahu and his cabinet will make any meaningful changes to protect aid workers.
WaterGirl
@Tony Jay:
Could not agree more.
gwangung
@Suzanne: Yes, exactly. Ultimately the pro-ceasefire folks have to lower the price of that political action. The easy way is to make it a viable option for action (and they do this by protesting). The harder way is to convince other segments of the population (including staunchly pro-Israel folks) that the price of continued support is too high. (the recent massacre of aid workers is helping in that aspect).
Citizen Alan
I love my job. And I love Fresno. But I will ALWAYS regret the fact that I didn’t get the job I applied for in Newark NJ which would have allowed me to live in Manhattan (and afford it!). My nine months in Queens was literally the best nine months of my life.
Tony Jay
@WaterGirl:
Well sure. I think I’ve said here quite a few times that I’d vote for Biden if I was an American, and not just because he’s not Trump. He’s a smart guy with empathy who can change his mind, which is rare in most fields and bloody rare in a politician.
I personally think his policy on Gaza has been way too slow in changing and as a result a lot of people have died who may not have otherwise died, and horrible things have happened that maybe could have been stopped, but I said a long time ago I understand why he’s followed the policy he has and I’ve zero time for the ‘Genocide Joe’ crowd or their ratfucking.
But I’ve likewise zero minus patience for the “pro-Palestinian protestors are ignorant posers who are probably paid by Russia” nonsense we get from the usual suspects. So pointing out that the protests have helped Biden in the long run seems to be the least I can do to clap back at them.
If that was misunderstood by people who aren’t the usual suspects, well, it happens. I’ll live. 8-)
Suzanne
@Tony Jay:
Agree.
The aspect of this that is critical to remember is that most people do not want to take unpopular positions. (I’m not talking about politicians here, I’m talking about normies.) Many will just avoid participating at all, rather than take a position in which they feel alone or weird. So seeing visible protests helps make a position feel legitimate and mainstream. Politicians want to listen to their mainstream. For years, the Democratic mainstream has been very supportive of Israel and pro-Palestine movements were fringier. I think that’s due to a few things. But it’s also changing, and the pro-ceasefire protests have been very helpful with that change.
Citizen Alan
@Anoniminous: I doubt there is a single person here who has any love for AIPAC.
emjayay
@MattF: True, but using “Trump haters” implies some random hatred, like “I hate asparagus.” Anti-Trump positions are based on decades of factual evidence.
Suzanne
@Tony Jay:
Are you unaware that the Israel/Palestine conflict is the fault of Bernie Sanders?!
lowtechcyclist
@dm:
Which reminds me of another reason I’m disgusted with Israel: Zelenskyy was asking Israel for Iron Dome a year before Russia’s 2022 invasion. Israel refused, and AFAIK hasn’t changed their stance on this.
(FWIW, Ukraine would have actually obtained Iron Dome from the U.S., but Israel’s permission is needed. So this wouldn’t have cost Israel anything.)
lowtechcyclist
@Eolirin:
If we aren’t going to use it in response to the massacre that Israel is conducting in Gaza, then WTF are we saving it for?!
lowtechcyclist
@Suzanne:
This.
AFAIAC, it’s really simple. Biden goes on TV, saying: “We have been providing Israel with money and weaponry for the purpose of defending itself. Instead, it is using those resources to massacre tens of thousands of civilians. Therefore, I am putting an indefinite hold on further provision of money and weaponry to Israel.”
With the unstated subtext: “Impeach me over this – I dare you.”
WaterGirl
@Tony Jay:
I believe that many of the Palestinian protesters are sincere, but I also suspect that they are being used and being taken advantage of by people who could not give one shit about Palestinians and are instead trying to drive a wedge and knee-cap Biden.
And I think they would be fools to not vote for Biden, and they would only be hurting their cause. But it’s not November, so we have no idea how or whether those folks will vote.
When you’re young, it’s easy to not see the big picture. I flirted with voting for 3rd party candidates when I was young. Of course, then, I voted up and down the ticket, but I mostly watched for who won the presidency without having any idea how much the House and the Senate would impact what even a Democratic president could do.
The Supreme Court broke me with Bush v. Gore, and I walked away from politics for 3 years.
Decades ago also liked the NYT because “they tell you the facts and don’t spin, so you can read the facts and decide”. Were they ever that? Or was I totally clueless, even as I thought I was engaged?
Scuffletuffle
@UncleEbeneezer: I went to elementary school in Montgomery…cute little town.
Suzanne
@lowtechcyclist: Apparently Senator Coons went on CNN and seemed to support putting conditions on any future aid to Israel, in light of these murders.
A few months ago, Very Serious People were informing me, with gravitas, that Israel has the right to defend itself. Which no one ever disputed, I will note. Those Very Serious People should now be communicating to Israel that we will not assist them further, as they are bombing and starving civilians.
Tony Jay
@WaterGirl:
Perfectly valid points. Of course there are ratfuckers trying to exploit the Democratic split over Gaza to get wedges hammered in. It’s what I’d do if I had their job. And it’s no surprise it’s working in some cases, when the case against the US arming Israeli’s war machine is so easy to make (by ignoring some of the issues around Congressional appropriations and concentrating on the executive decisions the White House has made) and when it’s so easy to pick out rhetoric from the Hippy Punchers spewing bile against anyone questioning the non-existent Flawless Joe they’ve created for convenience.
But as long as they vote against Trump in November and for the Party that will roll back on the last few decades of GOP malfeasance, that’s the ball game. Celebrating their role in turning the ship of State towards calmer seas should be a no brainer for people interested in Party Unity, since it’s easy and cheap and actually helpful.
Seeing how some people (none of them involved in this thread) Just Can’t Do That is… exactly what I’d expect of people who hate ‘The Left’ more than they’ll ever hate Republicans. They’re the people making problems for November.
cain
@Geminid: Hamas even more evil than Israel. I agree that Hamas would happily allow their fellow Palestinians die as martyrs and tell them they get a heavenly award in the end to keep themselves asleep at night.
Hamas should not be anyone’s friends anywhere. Probably why there is still total silence from Muslim countries.
Suzanne
@WaterGirl:
I will never deny the possibility of a ratfuck (rotating tag?), but I honestly think vast majority of the protestors are sincere. Why wouldn’t they be? The Arab and Muslim populations in the US have grown significantly in recent decades and a lot more people, especially young people, have grown up with them as friends and neighbors. There’s more Palestinian and Muslim celebrities (the Hadids, Zayn Malik, etc), and all of that contributes to more Americans seeing Palestinians and Muslims in a positive light and recognizing them as more fully….human. Less foreign. With universal aspirations and legitimate grievances.
Right-wing supporters of Israel don’t get accused of being used as pawns, or as useful idiots (even though they are). I think we should extend good faith to those who support ceasefire and some kind of Palestinian state.
WaterGirl
@Tony Jay: Yeah, I agree with all of that, too.
WaterGirl
@Suzanne:
I totally agree!
My point is that I think you can be sincere and allow yourself to be someone else’s pawn at the same time.
And the people who are using them as pawns in a different gave do not give a shit about Palestine or the hostages.
The same is true of Hamas. And Bibi.
None of them give a shit about the people who are starving and dying. The murder of the World Central Kitchen will be a turning point, I think. It has to be.
Hoppie
@Another Scott:
Until it isn’t. Slowly, then all at once….
suzanne
But, like, what are they supposed to do? People should communicate to their governments and fellow citizens what they believe. Should they stop, so as not to be someone’s “pawn”? Of course not.
We need to chill about this and stop treating this issue with suspicion. Netanyahu and those who support him are the ones destabilizing the world and causing chaos right now.
I want Biden to win, too, but there’s more than that out there and I don’t fault people for believing that.
WaterGirl
@suzanne: Did I say they should stop? No, I did not.
What’s the problem with acknowledging that these well-meaning people can do serious damage, in a time when everything is on the line?
I’m not saying they are bad people. I’m not saying they should shut up. I’m just acknowledging the potential for harm.
Suzanne
@WaterGirl: Saying that they can “do harm” is putting a responsibility on them that we aren’t putting on their counterparts. There’s a slice of voters who will support anything Netanyahu does and thus will support any American candidate who allows him to do what he wants. Those are the people who cause harm.
TheTruffle
@UncleEbeneezer: I grew up in Red Hook, north of Poughkeepsie and one town over Rhinebeck. Fun fact: New York’s Lt. Governor, Antonio Delgado, is from Rhinebeck.